Ethereum

Ethereum fork a success as Sepolia testnet gears up to trial the Merge

The difficulty bomb has been successfully delayed according to core dev Tim Beiko and Ethereum ecosystem developer Nethermind.

The difficulty bomb-delaying Gray Glacier hard fork went live on Ethereum on Thursday without a hitch, according to the network’s core devs including Ethereum Foundation’s Tim Beiko.

The Sepolia testnet is also set to run through its Merge trial over the next few days and is the second last testnet to go through the trial before the official Merge.

According to Etherscan, the Gray Glacier hard fork was initiated on block number 15050000 at roughly 6:54 am EST on Thursday. The hard fork will now delay the difficulty bomb by roughly 700,000 blocks or 100 days, giving devs until mid-October to complete the long-awaited Merge.

Ethereum Foundation community manager Tim Beiko promptly went to note on Twitter later on Thursday that at 20 blocks past the fork, all monitored notes remained in sync, stating:

“20 blocks past the fork and it’s looking good: all monitored nodes except @OpenEthereumOrg, which doesn’t support the fork, are in sync. No blocks on the old chain so far!”

Ethereum ecosystem developer Nethermind on Twitter also confirmed the success of the hard fork, adding that the difficulty bomb had been successfully delayed.

Gray Glacier hard fork is successful

Nethermind nodes are fine. Block time will go back down to 13 seconds.

Difficulty bomb delayed pic.twitter.com/NPkZMYhWHn

— Nethermind (@nethermindeth) June 30, 2022

The difficulty bomb is a mechanism put in place to gradually disincentivize Ether (ETH) miners from proof-of-work (PoW) mining on Ethereum ahead of the network’s eventual merge with the proof-of-stake (PoS)-based Beacon Chain.

This is done by increasing the difficulty level of puzzles in the PoW mining algorithm, thus resulting in longer block times and fewer ETH mining rewards. The mechanism would also make the Merge significantly more complicated for devs to complete due to its gradual slowing of block-creation.

Pushing back the difficulty bomb was required, as it would have slowed down new block creation so much that it would almost be impossible to introduce new network upgrades.

The difficulty bomb has been pushed back on multiple occasions due to the Merge experiencing numerous delays over recent years. The previous Arrow Glacier delay occurred in December 2021 and pushed the bomb back until the middle of 2022.

*The Merge has been delayed so often that even the memes about it being delayed are ancient.*

Sepolia Merge

Beiko also shared a post on Twitter from the Ethereum Foundation on Thursday announcing that the Sepolia testnet will do a dress rehearsal of the Merge over the next few days, marking the second of three public testnets to do so:

“After years of work to bring proof-of-stake to Ethereum, we are now well into the final testing stage: testnet deployments!”

“With Ropsten already transitioned to proof-of-stake and shadow forks continuing regularly, Sepolia is now ready for the Merge. After Sepolia, only Goerli/Prater will need to be merged before moving to mainnet,” the post added.

Sepolia, the second of three public testnets, is merging If you run a node on the network, now is the time to upgrade to an EL/CL combo

Hashrate has been volatile, so we may hit TTD over the weekend https://t.co/OfPTWzRqRN

— Tim Beiko | timbeiko.eth (@TimBeiko) June 30, 2022

On the Ethereum Foundation website, it vaguely estimates that the official Merge will go through during Q3/Q4 this year, and the latest post also adds that “the date for the Ethereum mainnet proof-of-stake transition has not been set. Any source claiming otherwise is likely to be a scam. Updates will be posted on this blog.”

Ethereum $1K price support in danger as Q2 comes to a close

The latest ETH plunge has triggered a bearish continuation setup, with an interim downside target 20% below the current prices.

Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) fell on the final trading day of Q2/2022, trading in sync with riskier assets amid persistent fears of higher inflation and rising interest rates. And it could result in further declines heading into Q3.

ETH price breakdown underway

ETH’s price plunged nearly 5% this June 30 to $1,044 following a four-day losing streak. The ETH/USD pair has also broken below its interim rising trendline support, which in conjugation with a horizontal trendline resistance to the upside, constitutes an “ascending triangle” pattern.

Ascending triangles are bearish continuation patterns when they occur after a sharp downtrend. Therefore, a breakdown out of an ascending triangle typically results in the price falling further lower, typically by as much as the structure’s maximum height.

Ether had been trending inside an ascending triangle since June 13, breaking below the triangle’s lower trendline on June 29 — a move that accompanied a spike in trading volumes, confirming traders’ conviction about a further downtrend.

*ETH/USD daily price chart featuring “ascending triangle” setup. Source: TradingView*

As a result, ETH’s downside target in Q3, led by the ascending triangle setup, comes to be near $835, almost 20% lower than June 3’s price.

Exchange reserves are rising

The bearish technical outlook is also boosted by an uptrend in the number of ETH on exchanges.

Notably, investors have deposited around 1 million Ether tokens across all crypto trading platforms since May 2022, according to data from CryptoQuant. As the amount of ETH rises in exchanges’ wallets, it indicates a growing selling pressure in the Ether market.

*Ethereum exchange reserves. Source: CryptoQuant*

Institutional investors have also been limiting their exposure in Ether by withdrawing capital from the dedicated investment funds, CoinShares noted in its weekly report.

Ether-focused investment products have witnessed $136.9 million worth of outflows in June. In 2022 so far, they have processed circa $450 million in withdrawals, confirming that traditional investors are very bearish on ETH.

*Net flow into/out of crypto funds by assets. Source: CoinShares*

ETH sharks and whales buy the dip

On the bright side, the decline in Ether’s prices across June has provided some of its richest investors the opportunity to “buy the dip.”

“Ethereum shark and whale addresses (holding between 100 to 100K $ETH) have collectively added 1.1% more of the coin’s supply to their bags on this -39% dip [since June 7],” noted Santiment, a crypto-focused data analytics platform, adding:

“Historical evidence points to this tier group having alpha on future price movement.”

*Ethereum ‘whale’ holdings. Source: Santiment*

*ETH number of addresses holding 100+ coins. Source: Glassnode.*

Additionally, smaller investors have also been showing a similar dip-buying sentiment , with a consistent increase in addresses holding at least 0.1, 1, and 10 ETH since the end of last year, data from Coinglass shows.

Ether’s price is currently down nearly 75% year-to-date.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Price analysis 6/29: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, SHIB, LEO

Bitcoin and altcoins gave up the gains of last week’s relief rally and June 29’s dip below $20,000 suggests bears are intent on pushing the market back to its yearly lows.

The United States equities markets have given back some of the gains made last week and that has pulled Bitcoin to the psychological support at $20,000. This suggests that investors are nervous to buy risky assets at higher levels.

Meanwhile, while speaking to the hosts of the Bankless podcast on June 23, Mark Cuban said that the crypto bear market could end after the price gets so cheap that investors go and start buying or an application with utility is launched that attracts users.

*Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source:* *Coin360*

Several analysts expect Bitcoin to continue falling and eventually bottom out between $10,000 and $12,000. However, John Bollinger, the creator of the popular Bollinger Bands trading indicator, said that the monthly charts suggest that Bitcoin’s price has reached “a logical place to put in a bottom.”

Could bears maintain the selling pressure and pull cryptocurrency prices lower? Let’s study the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin turned down from $22,000 on June 26 and has gradually slipped to the immediate support at $19,637. This suggests that the bears remain in command and every rally is being sold into.

If the price breaks below $19,637, the BTC/USDT pair could be at risk of dropping to the crucial support at $17,622. This is an important level to watch out for because a break and close below it could start the next leg of the downtrend. The pair could then decline to $15,000.

On the other hand, if the price rebounds off $19,637, it will suggest demand at lower levels. The buyers will then try to push the price above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($22,393). If they succeed, the pair could rally to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($26,735).

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($1,268) on June 26, suggesting that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.

The downsloping moving averages and the RSI in the negative zone indicate that bears are in control. The sellers will attempt to pull the price below the immediate support at $1,050. If they succeed, the ETH/USDT pair could plunge to the June 18 intraday low of $881.

A break below this support could signal the resumption of the downtrend. The next support on the downside is at $681.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price rebounds off $1,050, it will suggest demand at lower levels. The buyers will then make another attempt to push the price above the 20-day EMA and start the journey toward $1,500 and later $1,700.

BNB/USDT

The buyers failed to push and sustain BNB above the 20-day EMA ($238) between June 24 to 28. This resulted in profit-booking, which has pulled the price to the strong support of $211.

The 20-day EMA has started to turn down once again and the RSI has dipped into the negative territory. This suggests that bears have the upper hand. If the price slides below $211, the BNB/USDT pair could drop to the critical support of $183. If this support collapses, the pair could resume its downtrend and plummet toward $150.

Conversely, if the price rebounds off $211, it will suggest that bulls are attempting to form a higher low. A strong bounce could increase the prospects of a break above $250. The pair could then rally to the 50-day SMA ($273).

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) slipped below the breakout level of $0.35 on June 28, which suggests that bears continue to sell aggressively at higher levels.

The 20-day EMA ($0.35) is flattish but the RSI has dropped below 40, suggesting that the bears have a slight edge. The sellers will attempt to pull the price to the vital support at $0.28. This is an important level to keep an eye on because if it gives way, the XRP/USDT pair could start the next leg of the downtrend.

On the contrary, if the price turns up from the current level or $0.28, it will suggest that bulls are buying at lower levels. That could keep the pair range-bound between $0.28 and the 50-day SMA ($0.38) for a few days.

ADA/USDT

The bears thwarted repeated attempts by the bulls to push Cardano (ADA) above the 20-day EMA ($0.50) in the past few days. This suggests that the bears are defending the level aggressively.

The price could drop to the strong support zone at $0.44 to $0.40. If the price rebounds off this zone with strength, it will suggest that bulls are accumulating on dips. The buyers will then again try to propel the price above the moving averages. If they can pull it off, the ADA/USDT pair could start an up-move toward $0.70.

This positive view could invalidate in the short term if bears sink the pair below the support zone. If that happens, the pair could indicate the resumption of the downtrend. The next support is at $0.33.

SOL/USDT

The tight range trading in Solana (SOL) resolved to the downside with a break below the 20-day EMA ($37). The bears are attempting to pull the price below the immediate support at $33.

If they succeed, the SOL/USDT pair could decline to $27 and then retest the June 14 intraday low of $25.86.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price rebounds off $33, it will suggest that the bulls are attempting to form a higher low. The buyers will then try to clear the overhead hurdle at $43. If that happens, the pair could signal a potential change in trend. The pair may then rise to $60 where the bears may again mount a strong defense.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) turned down from the 50-day SMA ($0.08) on June 27 and broke below the 20-day EMA ($0.07) on June 28. This suggests that bears have not given up and they continue to sell on rallies.

The bears will try to sink the price to $0.06. If this level cracks, the next stop could be a retest of the critical level at $0.05.

Alternatively, if the price turns up from the current level or the support at $0.06 and rises back above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bulls are attempting to form a higher low. The bullish momentum could pick up on a break above $0.08. The DOGE/USDT pair could then attempt a rally to the psychological level of $0.10.

DOT/USDT

Repeated failures to push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA ($7.93) may have tempted short-term traders to book profits in Polkadot (DOT). The price turned down from the 20-day EMA and slipped to $7.30 on June 28.

Both the bulls and the bears are battling it out for supremacy near the $7.30 level. If the bears come out on top, the DOT/USDT pair could drop to the crucial level of $6.36. The bulls are expected to defend this level aggressively because a break below it could signal the resumption of the downtrend.

Conversely, if the price rebounds off the current level, the buyers will again try to achieve a close above the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, the pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($8.97).

SHIB/USDT

Shiba Inu (SHIB) slipped back below the 50-day SMA ($0.000011) on June 28, suggesting that the bears are active at higher levels. Although the price dipped below $0.000010, the bears have not been able to build upon this advantage.

This suggests that selling dries up at lower levels. The bulls will again try to push the price above the 50-day SMA and challenge the resistance at $0.000012. A break and close above this level could open the doors for a possible rally to $0.000014.

The 20-day EMA ($0.000010) has flattened out and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. If the price slips below $0.000009, the advantage could tilt in favor of the sellers. The pair may then drop to $0.000007.

LEO/USD

UNUS SED LEO (LEO) broke and closed above the resistance line of the descending channel on June 25 but the bulls could not push the price above $6. That may have attracted profit-booking from short-term traders, which pulled the price back into the channel on June 27.

The 20-day EMA ($5.57) is sloping up and the RSI is in the positive territory, suggesting that bulls have the upper hand. The buyers are again attempting to clear the overhead hurdle at $6. If they succeed, the LEO/USD pair could rally to $6.50 and then to the pattern target at $6.90.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price once again turns down from $6, it will suggest that bears are defending this level with vigor. The sellers will then attempt to sink the price below the 20-day EMA and challenge the 50-day SMA ($5.24).

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

Ethereum sell-off resumes with ETH price risking another 25% decline in June

Ether price is forming a bear pennant pattern whose profit target comes to be near $850.

Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) slumped on June 16, suggesting that its relief rally, coinciding with the Federal Reserve announcing it will hike the benchmark rate by 0.75%, is at risk.

Ether bulls trapped?

Ether’s price slipped by 9.2% to around $1,120 per token a day after it rebounded by 23% after dropping to almost $1,000, its worst level since January 2021.

The ETH/USD pair’s upside move, followed by a sharp correction, appeared in tandem with U.S. stocks, confirming that it traded like a risk-asset.

*ETH/USD and Nasdaq daily correlation coefficient. Source: TradingView*

The decline means that Ether has shed 77% of its value since November 2021 and is now trading below its “realized price” of $1,740, data from Glassnode shows.

*Ethereum realized price (USD). Source: Glassnode*

In addition, a higher interest rate environment adds more selling pressure, with investors leaving high-risk trades and seeking safety in traditional hedging assets, such as cash.

Investors’ faith in cryptocurrencies has also eroded following the collapse of Terra (originally LUNA, now LUNC), a $40 billion algorithmic stablecoin project, and lending platform Celsius Network’s decision to halt withdrawals.

Atop that, Three Arrow Capital, a crypto hedge fund that oversaw nearly $10 billion in May 2022, reportedly faces insolvency risks. Fears about systemic risks have further limited the crypto market’s recovery bias, hurting Ether.

ALERT: 3AC $250 Million $ETH Position Will Be Liquidated at ≈1000

— Market Meditations (@MrktMeditations) June 15, 2022

From a technical perspective, Ether’s recent gains look like a bear market rally, which could be due to investors covering their short trades.

In detail, investors close their short positions by buying the underlying asset back on the market—typically at a price less than the one at the time of borrowing—and returning them to the lender. That prompts the asset to rally between large downside moves, but it does not signify a bullish reversal.

These minor rallies could be a bull trap for investors that mistakenly see the rebound as a sign of bottoming out.

On the other hand, experienced bears utilize the pump to open new short positions at the local price top, knowing that nothing has fundamentally changed about the market.

ETH “bear pennant” hints at more losses ahead

Ether’s “bear pennant ” on shorter-timeframe charts also supports a bull trap scenario.

Bear pennants are bearish continuation patterns that form as the price consolidates inside a triangle-shaped structure after a strong downside move.

As a rule of technical analysis, traders measure a bear pennant’s profit target by subtracting the breakdow point from the height of the previous decline (called “flagpole”), as shown below.

*ETH/USD four-hour price chart featuring “bear pennant.” Source: TradingView*

This puts the next bear target for ETH price at $850, down almost 25% from June 16’s price.

Price analysis 6/15: BTC, ETH, BNB, ADA, XRP, SOL, DOGE, DOT, LEO, SHIB

BTC and select altcoins notched small gains after the Federal Reserve rolled out a 75 basis point rate hike, but technical analysis suggests that further downside is the most realistic outcome.

Bitcoin (BTC) plummeted close to the crucial support of $20,000 as traders panicked and dumped their holdings, fearing an aggressive rate hike by the United States Federal Reserve on June 15. Another reason for the sell-off could be fears of possible contagion if lending platform Celsius and crypto venture capital firm Three Arrows Capital (3AC) go belly up.

Data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant showed 24-hour exchange inflows of 59,376 Bitcoin on June 14, the highest inflows since November 30, 2018. The Bitcoin miners also joined other investors in sending Bitcoin to the exchanges. The Bitcoin Miners to Exchange flow metric reached a seven-month high of 9,476, indicating that the miners may be anticipating a further fall in the near term.

Prominent investors are divided on whether a bottom has been made in Bitcoin or not. Galaxy Digital Holdings chairman and CEO Mike Novogratz believes that Bitcoin could hold $20,000 and Ether (ETH) may bottom out at $1,000. These levels were also referred to by Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former chief of BitMEX, who cautioned that if the levels crack, it may lead to “massive sell pressure in spot markets.”

What are the important levels to watch out for on Bitcoin and major altcoins? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin remains in a firm bear grip. The bulls tried to start a recovery on June 14, as seen from the long wick on the day’s candlestick, but the bears were in no mood to relent. They sold aggressively and pulled the price to $20,111 on June 15.

The sharp selling in the past few days has pulled the relative strength index (RSI) near 21. This suggests that a rebound is possible in the short term. The BTC/USDT pair could rise to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $24,562 and then to the 50% retracement level at $25,938. The bears are expected to mount a strong defense in this zone.

If the price turns down from this overhead zone, the bears will attempt to resume the downtrend by pulling the pair below $20,000. If they succeed, the pair could drop to the next support at $17,500 and later $16,000.

The buyers will have to push and sustain the price above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA)($27,748) to indicate a potential trend change.

ETH/USDT

Ether is in a strong downtrend. The buyers tried to stall the decline on June 14 but they could not sustain the higher levels. The bears renewed their selling on June 15 but the bulls are defending the psychological level of $1,000 with all their might.

The incessant selling of the past few days has pulled the RSI into deeply oversold territory. This suggests that the selling may have been overdone in the short term. This could result in a strong bear market rally that may pick up momentum above $1,268. The ETH/USDT pair could then rally to the 20-day EMA ($1,636).

Alternatively, if the price continues lower and breaks below $1,000, it will suggest the resumption of the downtrend. The pair could then drop to $900 where the bulls will again try to arrest the decline.

BNB/USDT

BNB is witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near the crucial level of $211. The bulls tried to start a rebound on June 14 but they could not sustain the higher levels.

The bears took advantage of this and pulled the price below $211 on June 15. Although the downsloping moving averages indicate an advantage to bears, the deeply oversold level on the RSI suggests a relief rally in the short term.

If bulls sustain the price above $211, the BNB/USDT pair could attempt a rally to the 20-day EMA ($275). A break and close above this resistance could suggest that the pair may remain stuck in a large range between $211 and $350 for some more days.

On the contrary, if the price turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA, the bears will try to resume the downtrend. The next support on the downside is at $186.

ADA/USDT

The bears tried to pull Cardano (ADA) below the support at $0.44 on June 13 and 14 but failed to sustain the lower levels. This suggests that the bulls are defending the support zone between $0.44 and $0.40 aggressively.

The bulls will attempt to push the price above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA)($0.60). If they manage to do that, the ADA/USDT pair could rise to $0.69 and then to $0.74. The bears are likely to defend this overhead zone with vigor.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA ($0.54), it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on minor rallies.

The bears will then make one more attempt to sink the price below the support zone. If they succeed, the pair could signal the start of the next leg of the downtrend. The next support on the downside is $0.30.

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) dropped to $0.30 on June 13, which is the pattern target of the break below the descending triangle. The bears pulled the price below the support on June 14 but the bulls purchased the dip as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick.

The buyers are attempting to start a recovery that could reach the breakdown level of $0.38. If bears flip this level into resistance, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative. The sellers will then try to resume the downtrend and sink the XRP/USDT pair to the next strong support at $0.24.

On the contrary, if bulls drive and sustain the price above $0.38, it will suggest strong buying at lower levels. The buyers will then try to push the pair to the 50-day SMA ($0.45). The bears are likely to pose a strong challenge in the zone between $0.46 and $0.50.

SOL/USDT

Solana (SOL) is trying to sustain above the $26 level. The bulls tried to push the price back above the breakdown level of $35 on June 14 but the bears held their ground. This suggests that the bears are trying to flip the $35 level into resistance.

If the price turns down and breaks below $26, it will suggest the resumption of the downtrend. The SOL/USDT pair could then decline to $22 and later to the psychological level at $20.

This bearish view could invalidate in the short term if buyers push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA ($38). If that happens, the aggressive bears who may have entered short positions below $35 may rush to the exit. That could result in a short squeeze and push the pair toward the overhead resistance at $60.

DOGE/USDT

The buyers are trying to sustain Dogecoin (DOGE) above the psychological level of $0.05. The deeply oversold levels on the RSI indicate that a relief rally is possible in the short term.

If the price rebounds off the current level, the bulls will try to push the DOGE/USDT pair to the 20-day EMA ($0.07). If the price turns down from this level, the bears will again try to resume the downtrend and sink the pair to $0.04.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price breaks above the 20-day EMA, the bullish momentum could pick up and the pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($0.09). Such a move will suggest that the pair may have bottomed out in the near term.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) has been trading near the crucial support of $7.30 for the past two days. Although bears pulled the price below $7.30, they could not sustain the lower levels. This indicates strong buying on dips.

If buyers sustain the price above $7.30, the DOT/USDT pair could rise to the 20-day EMA ($8.80). This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break and close above it will suggest that the pair may consolidate between $6.36 and $12.44 for some time.

Conversely, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears are active at higher levels. A break and close below $6.36 could signal the resumption of the downtrend. The pair could then decline to $5 and later to $4.23.

LEO/USD

UNUS SED LEO (LEO) dipped below the moving averages on June 13 but the long tail on the day’s candlestick shows aggressive buying at lower levels. That was followed by an inside-day candlestick pattern on June 14, indicating indecision among the buyers and sellers.

The bulls tried to push the price toward the resistance line of the descending channel on June 15 but the bears had other plans. They have pulled the price back below the moving averages, increasing the possibility of a drop to the support line of the channel.

If the price rebounds off the support line with strength, it will indicate that the LEO/USD pair may extend its stay inside the channel for a few more days. The next trending move could begin if bears sink the pair below the channel or bulls thrust the price above the resistance line.

SHIB/USDT

The bulls are attempting to defend the $0.000007 level aggressively. Shiba Inu (SHIB) formed a Doji candlestick pattern on June 14, indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears.

If the uncertainty resolves to the upside and bulls push the price above $0.000009, the SHIB/USDT pair could rise to the breakdown level of $0.000010. If the price turns down from this level, it will suggest that the trend remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. The bears will then attempt to resume the downtrend and sink the pair to $0.000006.

Alternatively, if bulls drive the price above the downtrend line, it could open the doors for a possible rally to $0.000014. Such a move could suggest that the pair may have bottomed out.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

Ethereum crashed by 94% in 2018 — Will history repeat with ETH price bottoming at $375?

ETH’s latest plunge could bring more pain despite expectations that $1,200 should hold.

Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) is showing signs of bottoming out as ETH price bounced off a key support zone. Notably, ETH price is now holding above the key support level of the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) near $1,196.

The 200-week SMA support seems purely psychological, partly due to its ability to serve as bottom levels in the previous Bitcoin bear markets.

Independent market analyst “Bluntz” argues that the curvy level would also serve as a strong price floor for Ether where accumulation is likely.

He notes:

“BTC has bottomed 4x at the 200wma dating back to 2014. [Probably] safe to assume it’s a pretty strong level. Sure we can wick below it, but there [are] also six days left in the week.”

*ETH/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView*

Currently, ETH/USD is almost 75% below its record high, seven months after hitting around $4,950.

This massive correction has made the Ethereum token an “oversold” asset, per its below-30 relative strength (RSI) readings, another technical indicator showing that ETH is a “buy.”

The last time Ether turned oversold was in November 2018, which preceded the end of a 12-month long bear cycle that saw ETH losing 94% of its value.

Unfortunately, the same bearish exhaustion cannot be promised in 2022 as Ether continues facing some serious macro headwinds.

ETH’s technical bull signals are not enough

Ether’s attempt to find a concrete bottom appears against the backdrop of a selling frenzy happening across the crypto and traditional financial markets.

At the core of its 75% price correction is a hawkish Federal Reserve with its possibility of raising interest rates by 175 basis points by September’s end, according to interest rate swaps linked to FOMC policy outcome dates.

*Change in Fed’s interest-rate targets. Source: Bloomberg/CME*

In other words, riskier assets would suffer as lending costs rise. This could hurt Ether’s recovery prospects despite it holding above a so-called “strong” support level.

1-2 months as the Ethereum merge would be implemented between August and October. And traders will front-run it. It won’t matter much if the Fed gets more aggressive, but if it doesn’t, then that’s your catalyst.

— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) June 2, 2022

Ether price targets

ETH’s price has been testing the 0.786 Fib line (near $1,057) as its interim support. This price level serves is a part of the Fibonacci retracement graph, drawn from the $1,323-swing high to the $82-swing low, as shown in the chart below.

*ETH/USD weekly price chart featuring Fibonacci support/resistance levels. Source: TradingView*

A 2018-like 94% price decline would risk bringing ETH to the 0.236 Fib line near $375, down 70% from June 1’s price.

Conversely, if Ether indeed bottoms out near its 200-week SMA, its path of least resistance appears to be toward $2,000. An extended upside retracement above $2,000 would have the Ethereum token test $3,500 as its next bull target.

Almost $100M exits US crypto funds in anticipation of hawkish monetary policy

“What has pushed Bitcoin into a ‘crypto winter’ over the last six months can by and large be explained as a direct result of an increasingly hawkish rhetoric from the US Federal Reserve,” CoinShares wrote.

Institutional investors offloaded $101.5 million worth of digital asset products last week in “anticipation of hawkish monetary policy” from the United States Federal Reserve, according to CoinShares.

U.S. inflation rates hit 8.6% year-on-year at the end of May, marking a return to levels not seen since 1981. As a result, the market is expecting the Fed to take considerable action to reel in inflation, with some traders pricing in three more 0.5% rate hikes by October.

According to the latest edition of CoinShares’ weekly “Digital Asset Fund Flows” report, the outflows between June 6 and June 10 were primarily led by investors from the Americas at $98 million, while Europe accounted for just $2 million.

Products offering exposure to crypto’s top two assets, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), accounted for nearly all outflows at $56.8 million and $40.7 million a piece. The month-to-date figures also paint a grim figure at $91.1 million worth of outflows for BTC products and $72.3 million in total outflows for ETH products:

“What has pushed Bitcoin into a ‘crypto winter’ over the last six months can by and large be explained as a direct result of an increasingly hawkish rhetoric from the US Federal Reserve.”

While CoinShares suggested that Bitcoin has been pushed into a crypto winter, the year-to-date (YTD) inflows for BTC investment products still stand at $450.8 million. In comparison, funds offering exposure to ETH have seen hefty year-to-date outflows of $386.5 million, suggesting the sentiment amongst institutional investors still heavily favors digital gold.

The report also highlighted that the total assets under management (AUM) for Ether funds have “fallen from its peak of US$23bn in November 2021 to US$8.7bn” as of last week.

Notably, it appears that the institutional investors offloaded their BTC and ETH products before most of the latest price carnage happened to both assets.

According to data from CoinGecko, between June 6 and June 10, the price of BTC and ETH dropped 4.7% and 5.9% each. However, since June 11, BTC and ETH have plunged around 25.7% and 33.2%, respectively.

Apart from BTC and ETH outflows, multi-asset funds saw outflows of $4.7 million, and short Bitcoin products posted minimal outflows of $200,000. At the same time, investors also “steered clear of adding to altcoin positions.”

Price analysis 6/13: BTC, ETH, BNB, ADA, XRP, SOL, DOGE, DOT, LEO, AVAX

Bitcoin and altcoins are seeing heavy selling as June 13’s massive unwinding could be the final capitulation-level event before the market finally hits a bottom.

The United States equities markets extended their decline to start the week on June 13. The S&P 500 hit a new year-to-date low and dipped into bear market territory, falling more than 20% from its all-time high made on Jan. 4.

The cryptocurrency markets are tracking the equities markets lower and the selling pressure further intensified due to the rumored liquidity crisis of major lending platform Celsius and traders possibly selling positions to meet margin calls. This pulled the total crypto market capitalization below $1 trillion.

The sharp declines have led some analysts to project extremely bearish targets. While anything is possible in the markets and it is difficult to call a bottom, capitulations usually tend to start a bottoming formation. Traders may get their buy list ready and consider accumulating in phases after the price stops falling.

What are the important levels that may arrest the decline in Bitcoin (BTC) and major altcoins? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin broke below the immediate support at $28,630 on June 11. This accelerated selling and the bears pulled the price below the critical support at $26,700 on June 12. This indicated the resumption of the downtrend.

The bears maintained their selling pressure on June 13 and sent the BTC/USDT pair tumbling to an intraday low of $22,600. The sharp fall of the past few days has pulled the relative strength index (RSI) into the oversold zone. This suggests that a relief rally or consolidation is likely in the next few days.

Any recovery is likely to face selling in the zone between $26,700 and $28,630. If bears flip this zone into resistance, it will suggest that sentiment remains negative. Traders could then make one more attempt to resume the downtrend. A break below $22,600 could sink the pair to the psychological level at $20,000.

The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above $28,630 to suggest that the bears may be losing their grip.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) plummeted below the vital support of $1,700 on June 10, indicating that bears are in control. This signaled the start of the next leg of the downtrend.

The selling picked up momentum on June 11 and bears have pulled the price below the strong support at $1,300. This suggests that traders are gripped with fear and are dumping their positions.

The aggressive selling of the past three days has pulled the RSI below 22. Historically, the ETH/USDT pair starts a relief rally when the RSI falls close to 21. This suggests that the pair could attempt a rally to the breakdown level of $1,700.

Alternatively, if bears sustain their selling pressure, the pair could drop to psychological support at $1,000.

BNB/USDT

The failure of the bulls to push BNB back into the triangle may have attracted strong selling by the bears on June 11. The selling picked up momentum and the price has dropped near the strong support at $211.

If the price rebounds off $211, it will suggest accumulation at lower levels. The buyers will then make an attempt to push the price above the 20-day exponential moving average ($289). If they succeed, it will indicate that the BNB/USDT pair may remain range-bound between $211 and $350 for a few days.

Conversely, if bears sink the price below $211, it will signal the start of the next leg of the downtrend. The psychological level of $200 may offer a minor support but if the level gives way, the next support could be at $186.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) broke below the 20-day EMA ($0.56) on June 10 and attempts by the bulls to push the price back above the level on June 11 met with strong selling at higher levels.

The bears have pulled the price to the strong support zone between $0.44 and $0.40. This zone is likely to attract strong buying by the bulls because a break below it could signal the resumption of the downtrend. The ADA/USDT pair could then start its southward journey toward the next major support at $0.30.

Alternatively, if the price rises from the current level, the bulls will attempt to push the pair above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA($0.61). If that happens, the pair may consolidate between $0.74 and $0.40 for a few days.

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) broke and closed below the support at $0.38 on June 11. This completed a bearish descending triangle pattern, signaling that sellers have the upper hand.

The selling picked up momentum and bears pulled the price below the crucial support at $0.33 on June 13. This indicates the start of the next leg of the downtrend. The short-term bears may book profits near the pattern target of $0.30.

If they do that, the XRP/USDT pair could start a relief rally that may reach the breakdown level of $0.33 and then $0.38. Alternatively, if bears sink the price below $0.30, the pair could drop to the next strong support at $0.24.

SOL/USDT

Solana (SOL) had been stuck between the 20-day EMA ($40) and $35 for a few days. This uncertainty resolved to the downside on June 11 as bears pulled the price below the support.

This accelerated the selling and the bears pulled the price below the immediate support at $30. The next support on the downside is $22 and later $20.

The sharp selling of the past few days has sent the RSI into the oversold territory. This suggests a relief rally or consolidation is likely in the near term. The bulls will attempt to push the price above the breakdown level of $35 and the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, it will suggest that the current breakdown may have been a bear trap.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin’s (DOGE) tight range trading expanded to the downside on June 10. The bears pulled the price below the May 12 intraday low of $0.07 on June 11, indicating the resumption of the downtrend.

The selling further picked up momentum and the bears pulled the DOGE/USDT pair to the psychological support of $0.05. This level could act as a short-term support because the deeply oversold levels on the RSI suggest a relief rally is possible.

On the upside, the bears will attempt to stall the recovery at the breakdown level of $0.07. If the price turns down from this resistance, the bears will attempt to resume the downtrend and sink the pair to $0.04. The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day EMA ($0.08).

DOT/USDT

The failure of the bulls to push Polkadot (DOT) back into the symmetrical triangle attracted aggressive selling by the bears on June 10. That started a downward move that pulled the price below the critical support of $7.30.

The bulls are attempting to push the price back above the breakdown level of $7.30. If they manage to do that, it will suggest that the break below $7.30 may have been a bear trap. The DOT/USDT pair could then rise to the 20-day EMA ($9.17).

Alternatively, if the price fails to rise above $7.30, it will suggest that the bears have flipped the level into resistance. That could resume the downtrend with the next stop being the psychological level of $5 and then the pattern target of $4.23.

LEO/USD

UNUS SED LEO (LEO) has been trading inside a descending channel for the past several weeks. The bears are posing a challenge near $5.60 but are finding it difficult to pull the price below the 20-day EMA ($5.24).

If the price bounces off the current level and rises above $5.60, the LEO/USD pair could gradually move up to the resistance line of the channel. The bears are likely to defend this level aggressively.

If the price turns down from the resistance line, the bears will attempt to sink the pair below the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the pair may gradually dip toward the support line. Such a move will suggest that the pair may extend its stay inside the channel for some more time.

The next trending move could begin after the bulls push the price above the resistance line or bears sink the pair below the support line.

AVAX/USDT

Avalanche’s (AVAX) tight range trading between the 20-day EMA ($24) and the critical support of $21 resolved to the downside on June 11. This indicated the resumption of the downtrend.

The selling picked up momentum and sliced through the support at $18 on June 12. There is a minor support at $15 but if this level breaks down, the AVAX/USDT pair could plummet to the next strong support of $13.

Although the downsloping moving averages indicate advantage to sellers, the oversold levels on the RSI suggest that the selling may have been overdone in the near term. That could result in a relief rally to the breakdown level of $21. The bulls will have to push the price above the 20-day EMA to indicate that the bears may be losing their grip.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

Ethereum price flash crashes to $950 on Uniswap as whale dumps 93K ETH

ETH managed a sharp rebound after falling to $950. But the ETH/USD bearish continuation setup could have it revisit it.

Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) fell to as low as $950 on Uniswap—a decentralized crypto exchange— this June 13, about 20% lower than its spot rate across other exchanges.

*ETH/USD hourly price chart. Source: Uniswap*

Over $130M ETH sold in six hours

The incident happened at around 3:00 am UTC after a whale dumped 65,000 ETH for multiple “stablecoins,” including USD Coin (USDC), Tether (USDT) and Dai (DAI).

A piece of evidence noted that the whale sold its ETH holdings to pay off nearly $73 million worth of debt at Oasis.app, a DeFi lending platform. The duration of the sell-off saw ETH’s liquidation price dropping from $1,200 to $875.

not a liquidation, someone selling collateral to pay off debthttps://t.co/tceIla0xuF pic.twitter.com/KwIholu1St

— mariano.eth ✨ᕙ༼ຈل͜ຈ༽ᕗ✨ | (@nanexcool) June 13, 2022

The Oasis borrower continued the selling spree—dumping another stash of nearly 28,000 ETH five hours after the first selloff—to pay back another $32 million in debt. This time, the liquidation price rose from $892 to $1,200, as shown below.

*Screenshot of the anonymous borrower’s dashboard. Source: Oasis.app*

As a result, the whale dumped around 93,000 ETH within just six hours. The amount equals toroughly $112 million at June 13’s ETH/USD price.

Interestingly, the Oasis borrower’s total outstanding debt was about $120 million (as measured in DAI stablecoin), suggesting that the whale suffered heavy “slippage” losses.

wtf… was this a misclick? https://t.co/POURtN4F6s

— Jonathan Howard (@staringispolite) June 13, 2022

Ether price eyes $667 — veteran analyst

Ether’s trip to $950 was brief, suggesting adequate demand for the tokens near the level. Nonetheless, one separate analysis from veteran trader Peter Brandt pointed at ETH’s price falling toward $650 in the coming weeks.

Brandt’s bearish outlook emerged out of a classic continuation pattern, dubbed the “descending triangle,” which resolves after the price breaks out in the direction of its previous trend.

Since Ether was falling before the triangle’s formation, its path of least resistance was skewed to the downside.

*ETH/USD daily price chart. Source: Peter Brandt/TradeNavigator*

Brandt says that ETH had reached the triangle’s first downside target of $1,268 as the price declined 20% on June 13. He anticipates the declines to continue, with ETH dropping almost by another 50% to $667.

Nonetheless, Ether’s oversold relative strength index (RSI) could lead to a sharp price reversal. Ethereum picks additional rebound cues from its 200-week simple moving average (200-week SMA; the orange wave in the chart below) near $1,200, now serving as support.

If ETH price undergoes an upside retracement, then the token’s interim bull target could be near $1,450, coinciding with the 1.00 Fib line of the Fibonacci retracement graph drawn from around $1,450-swing high to the $84-swing low.

Conversely, a decisive close below the 200-week SMA could have ETH eye $920 as its next downside target.

Bitcoin passes $23.8K May low as crypto market cap drops under $1 trillion

The crypto sell-off is in full swing, and Wall Street has not even opened yet.

Bitcoin (BTC) faced continued selling pressure before the June 13 Wall Street open as Ether (ETH) revisited multiyear lows.

*BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView*

Bitcoin battles for $24,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD eclipsing its 10-month lows set in mid-May.

The largest cryptocurrency faced bearish triggers on multiple fronts, these coming from both within and beyond the crypto sphere.

Fintech protocol Celsius appeared on the brink of meltdown after operations were halted, turning billions of dollars in collateral into new risk for crypto markets. In an event ironically similar to that which caused the May rout, Bitcoin and altcoins kept falling as fresh uncertainty filled the air.

Macro conditions were hardly better, with Asian markets selling off and Wall Street futures looking set to continue the downtrend that set in last week.

Inflation concerns likewise remained ahead of crucial comments from the United States Federal Reserve due June 15.

“I call it.. the long bear,” popular analyst Crypto Chase summarized:

“For real though, we do not know when Fed will change tune, developments of war in Ukraine, US presidential election on horizon, supply chain issues, etc. Markets do NOT like uncertainty. I can be a trader of bounces sure, but investor? Not yet.”

Others were more confident, both on longer and shorter timeframes.

Here is your smart money. Since our Wave 3 peak at 65k they have increased $BTC holdings from approx. 11M to over 13M. This is a re-accumulation range, not distribution. Look at the comments below- most say “they must be selling” or “they already sold”. Nah, the data doesn’t lie. https://t.co/LVLhiNWNxM pic.twitter.com/2QqXEKWmDY

— CrediBULL Crypto (@CredibleCrypto) June 13, 2022

“The expectations are that the FED will hike on next week’s meeting,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe added:

“Normal, and highly expected. However, this expectation is overshooting towards extensive hikes (75bps). I don’t see that. Probably 50bps and that’s it. Markets always overreact.”

The overall cryptocurrency market capitalizatio, meanwhile, fell under the $1 trillion mark for the first time since February 2021.

*Crypto market cap 1-week candle chart. Source: TradingView*

Ethereum faces $1,000 price target

Continuing the bearish theme, altcoins looked even more primed to hemorrhage value on the day.

Ether, fresh from dropping below its realized price over the weekend, is now trading below its all-time highs set during Bitcoin’s previous halving cycle.

This is the last time $ETH went oversold on the weekly (hasn’t confirmed here yet).

I had no followers, but macro bottom ticked it.

Note, you can push way lower on weekly rsi, not trying to catch a bottom. https://t.co/kLCynTKTcS

— The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) June 12, 2022

ETH/USD fluctuated near $1,230 at the time of writing, a level last seen in January 2021. The old cycle’s peak, set in January 2018, was around $1,530.

*ETH/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView*

“Things getting so bad so fast that the 200W SMA for $BTC & $ETH will both be severely tested,” crypto venture capital fund Placeholder founder Chris Burniske concluded:

“$ETH likely breaks it cleanly & heads to bigger psychological test of $1K, $BTC will put up a bigger fight but given the clouds on the horizon hard to see it not toying w/ $20K & below.”