Ethereum

Ethereum price enters ‘oversold’ zone for the first time since November 2018

Ether’s price rebounded by nearly 400% after its RSI turned oversold the last time. Will this time be different?

Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) entered its “oversold” territory this June 12, for the first time since November 2018, according to its weekly relative strength index (RSI).

This is the last time $ETH went oversold on the weekly (hasn’t confirmed here yet).

I had no followers, but macro bottom ticked it.

Note, you can push way lower on weekly rsi, not trying to catch a bottom. https://t.co/kLCynTKTcS

— The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) June 12, 2022

ETH eyes oversold bounce

Traditional analysts consider an asset to be excessively sold after its RSI reading fall below 30. Furthermore, they also see the drop as an opportunity to “buy the dip,” believing an oversold signal would lead to a trend reversal.

Ether’s previous oversold reading appeared in the week ending on Nov. 12, 2018, which preceded a roughly 400% price rally, as shown below.

*ETH/USD weekly price chart featuring oversold RSI. Source: TradingView*

While past performances are not indicators of future trends, the latest RSI’s move below 30 raises the possibility of Ether undergoing a similar—if not an equally sharp—upside retracement in the future.

Suppose ETH logs an oversold bounce. Then, the ETH/USD pair’s immediate challenge would be to reclaim its 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the blue wave) near $1,620 as its support.

If it does, bulls could eye an extended upside move towards the 50-week EMA (the red wave) above $2,700, up almost 100% from today’s price.

If not, Ether could resume its downtrend, with $1,120 serving as the next target, a level coinciding with the token’s 0.782 Fib line, as shown in the chart below.

*ETH/USD weekly price chart featuring Fibonacci support and resistance levels. Source: TradingView*

Macro headwinds and a $650 Ether price target

The RSI-based bullish outlook appears against a flurry of bearish headwinds, ranging from persistently higher inflation to a classic technical indicator with a downward bias.

In detail, Ether’s price decline by more than 20% in the last six days, with most losses coming after June 10, when the U.S. Labour Department reported that the inflation reached 8.6% in May, the highest since December 1981.

The higher consumer price index (CPI) strengthened fears among investors that it would force the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates more aggressively while slashing its $9 trillion balance sheet. That dampened appetite for riskier assets, hurting stocks, Bitcoin (BTC) and ETH.

*ETH/USD versus SPX and BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

Independent analyst Vince Prince fears the latest ETH decline could extend until the price reaches $650. At the core of his downside target is a massive “head and shoulders” — a classic bearish reversal pattern with an 85% success rate in meeting its profit target, according to Samurai Trading Academy.

The massive head-and-shoulder formation forecasted earlier for #Ethereum has now been completely confirmed…

… $ETH is now headed towards the $650 USDT area!!! pic.twitter.com/R2KaqiorEd

— Vince Prince (@Vince_Prince_) June 12, 2022

Meanwhile, Glassnode’s lead on-chain analyst, known by the pseudonym “Checkmate,” highlighted a potential DeFi disaster that could crash Ether’s price further into 2022.

The analyst noted that the ratio between Ethereum’s and the top three stablecoins’ market capitalization grew to 80% on June 11.

Ratio is now at 80%

Market Cap of:#Ethereum = $181.58B
Top 3 Stablecoins = $144.28B
TVL in DeFi = $101.67B$ETH at $1215 makes for equal Ethereum and Top 3 stablecoin market caps.

The principle risk here is levered $ETH collateral in DeFi loans getting liquidated in a cascade https://t.co/26u0vXnMMY pic.twitter.com/q555clRaap

— _Checkɱate ⚡ (@_Checkmatey_) June 12, 2022

Since “most people borrow stablecoins” by providing ETH as collateral, the potential of the Ethereum network becoming less valuable than the top dollar-pegged tokens would make the debt’s value higher than the collateral itself.

Checkmate noted:

“There is nuance as not all stablecoins are borrowed, and also not all are ON ethereum. But nevertheless, the risk of liquidations [is] a hell of a lot higher than it was three months ago.”

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Ethereum price enters ‘oversold’ zone for the first time since November 2018

Ether’s price rebounded by nearly 400% after its RSI turned oversold the last time. Will this time be different?

Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) entered its “oversold” territory this June 12, for the first time since November 2018, according to its weekly relative strength index (RSI).

This is the last time $ETH went oversold on the weekly (hasn’t confirmed here yet).

I had no followers, but macro bottom ticked it.

Note, you can push way lower on weekly rsi, not trying to catch a bottom. https://t.co/kLCynTKTcS

— The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) June 12, 2022

ETH eyes oversold bounce

Traditional analysts consider an asset to be excessively sold after its RSI reading fall below 30. Furthermore, they also see the drop as an opportunity to buy the dip, believing an oversold signal would lead to a trend reversal.

Ether’s previous oversold reading appeared in the week ending on Nov. 12, 2018, which preceded a roughly 400% price rally, as shown below.

Suppose ETH logs an oversold bounce . Then, the ETH/USD pair’s immediate challenge would be to reclaim its 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the blue wave) near $1,620 as its support.

If it does, bulls could eye an extended upside move toward the 50-week EMA (the red wave) above $2,700, up almost 100% from the price of June 12.

If not, Ether could resume its downtrend, with $1,120 serving as the next target, a level coinciding with the token’s 0.782 Fib line, as shown in the chart below.

Macro headwinds and a $650 Ether price target

The RSI-based bullish outlook appears against a flurry of bearish headwinds, ranging from persistently higher inflation to a classic technical indicator with a downward bias.

In detail, Ether’s price declined by more than 20% in the last six days, with most losses coming after June 10, when the United States Labor Department reported that the inflation reached 8.6% in May, the highest since December 1981.

Independent analyst Vince Prince fears the latest ETH decline could extend until the price reaches $650. At the core of his downside target is a massive head and shoulders — a classic bearish reversal pattern with an 85% success rate in meeting its profit target, according to Samurai Trading Academy.

The massive head-and-shoulder formation forecasted earlier for #Ethereum has now been completely confirmed…

… $ETH is now headed towards the $650 USDT area!!! pic.twitter.com/R2KaqiorEd

— Vince Prince (@Vince_Prince_) June 12, 2022

Meanwhile, Glassnode’s lead on-chain analyst, known by the pseudonym Checkmate, highlighted a potential decentralized finance (DeFi) disaster that could crash Ether’s price further into 2022.

The analyst noted that the ratio between Ethereum’s and the top three stablecoins’ market capitalization grew to 80% on June 11.

Ratio is now at 80%

Market Cap of:#Ethereum = $181.58B
Top 3 Stablecoins = $144.28B
TVL in DeFi = $101.67B$ETH at $1215 makes for equal Ethereum and Top 3 stablecoin market caps.

The principle risk here is levered $ETH collateral in DeFi loans getting liquidated in a cascade https://t.co/26u0vXnMMY pic.twitter.com/q555clRaap

— _Checkɱate ⚡ (@_Checkmatey_) June 12, 2022

Checkmate noted:

“There is nuance as not all stablecoins are borrowed, and also not all are ON ethereum. But nevertheless, the risk of liquidations [is] a hell of a lot higher than it was three months ago.”

Price analysis 6/10: BTC, ETH, BNB, ADA, XRP, SOL, DOGE, DOT, AVAX, SHIB

BTC and altcoins are on the verge of falling below critical support levels, and June 10’s higher-than-expected CPI report isn’t helping.

The United States equities markets tumbled on June 10 after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed inflation soaring 8.6% from a year ago, the highest increase since 1981. The latest figures show that talks of inflation having peaked were premature and according to Bloomberg, investors are pricing in the key interest rate of 3% by the end of the year.

Continuing its tight correlation with the S&P 500, Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below $30,000 on June 10. Analysts are still divided about the near-term price action but Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee said in an interview with CNBC that Bitcoin may have already bottomed. However, Lee seems to have toned down his expectations as he said that Bitcoin could “remain flat for the year, possibly up.”

*Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source:* *Coin360*

Among the constant flow of negative news, there was a ray of hope from news that Bloomberg expanded coverage of cryptocurrency data on its Bloomberg Terminal to 50 crypto assets. Bloomberg cryptocurrency product manager Alex Wenham, gave positive vibes as he said that institutional interest in digital assets continues to grow.

Now that Bitcoin is trading near swing lows again, is a capitulation-level crisis a threat? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

The bulls tried to push the price above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($30,365) on June 9 but the bears did not relent. The selling continued on June 10 and the bears have pulled the price below the trendline of the ascending triangle.

The 20-day EMA has started to turn down gradually and the relative strength index (RSI) is in the negative territory, indicating advantage to sellers.

If the price sustains below the trendline, it will invalidate the bullish setup. That could pull the BTC/USDT pair down to $28,630, which may act as strong support but if this level cracks, the decline could extend to $26,700.

Alternatively, if the price rebounds off $28,630 and rises above the 20-day EMA, the up-move could reach $32,659.

ETH/USDT

Strong selling on June 10 has pulled Ether (ETH) below the critical support at $1,700. If the price sustains below this support, the pair could resume its downtrend.

The ETH/USDT pair could first decline to $1,500 and if this level also gives way, the next stop could be the vital support at $1,300. The bulls are expected to defend this level with all their might.

Contrary to this assumption, if bears fail to sustain the price below $1,700, it will suggest accumulation at lower levels. The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day EMA. That could open the doors for a possible rally to $2,159.

The indicators are giving a mixed signal because the downsloping moving averages favor the sellers but the positive divergence on the RSI suggests that a relief rally may be around the corner.

BNB/USDT

BNB has been trading below the support line of the symmetrical triangle for the past three days but the bears have not been able to build upon the breakdown. This suggests that selling dries up at lower levels.

The buyers will try to push the price back into the triangle. If that happens, the aggressive bears who may have gone short on the break below the support line may get trapped. That could result in a short-covering, which could push the price above the resistance line of the triangle. Such a move will suggest that the bears may be losing their grip.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price continues lower from the current level and plummets below $273, it will increase the possibility of a break below the critical support of $260. The pair could then start a decline toward the vital support of $211.

ADA/USDT

The bulls pushed Cardano (ADA) above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($0.64) on June 8 and 9 but could not sustain the higher levels. That may have tempted short-term traders to book profits.

The bears are attempting to sustain the price below the 20-day EMA ($0.58). If they manage to do that, the ADA/USDT pair could plummet to the next support at $0.53. If this level also gives way, the decline could extend to $0.44.

Alternatively, if the price rebounds off the current level, it will suggest that the sentiment has turned positive and the bulls are buying on dips. The bulls will then make one more attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at the 50-day SMA. If they succeed, the pair could rally to the breakdown level of $0.74, which may again act as a resistance.

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) had been trading close to the downtrend line for the past two days. The failure to push the price above the overhead resistance may have attracted profit-booking from the short-term traders.

The XRP/USDT pair has dipped to the strong support of $0.38 where the buyers may attempt to stall the decline. If the price rebounds off the support and rises above the downtrend line, the pair could rally to $0.46.

On the contrary, if bears sink and sustain the price below $0.38, it will complete a bearish descending triangle pattern. That could intensify the selling and pull the price down to $0.33. A break below this support could signal the resumption of the downtrend.

SOL/USDT

Solana (SOL) is trading between the 20-day EMA ($44) and $37 for the past few days. The buyers tried to push the price above the 20-day EMA on June 9 but the bears held their ground.

The positive divergence on the RSI indicates a minor advantage to buyers while the downsloping moving averages suggest that bears have the upper hand. This uncertainty is unlikely to continue for long. If bears sink the price below $35, the SOL/USDT pair may resume the downtrend The next stop on the downside could be $30.

Contrary to this assumption, if bulls propel the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rally to $50 and then to the overhead resistance at $60.

DOGE/USDT

The bulls struggled to sustain Dogecoin (DOGE) above $0.08 on June 8 and 9. This may have attracted further selling and the support collapsed on June 10.

The bears will try to build upon their advantage and attempt to sink the price to the vital support of $0.07. A break and close below this level could signal the start of the next leg of the downtrend.

This negative view could invalidate in the short term if the price turns up and breaks above the 20-day EMA ($0.08). That could attract buying from the aggressive bulls, which could push the DOGE/USDT pair to $0.10.

DOT/USDT

The bulls tried to push Polkadot (DOT) back into the symmetrical triangle on June 9 but the bears defended the level aggressively. This suggests that the bears have flipped the support line into resistance.

The bears will attempt to sink the price below the immediate support of $8.56. If they succeed, the DOT/USDT pair could drop to the critical level at $7.30. The bears will have to pull the price below this support to indicate the resumption of the downtrend.

This bearish view could invalidate if the price rebounds off $8.56 and rises above the resistance line. If that happens, the pair could attract buyers who may then attempt to push the price to $11 and later to $12.50.

AVAX/USDT

Avalanche (AVAX) formed a Doji candlestick pattern for the past two days indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears. This uncertainty resolved to the downside on June 10 and bears are trying to pull the price to the strong support at $21.

The price is stuck between the 20-day EMA ($27) and $21. This tight-range trading is likely to resolve with a range expansion in the next few days. Although the positive divergence on the RSI indicates a minor advantage to buyers, the downsloping moving averages suggest that bears have the upper hand.

If the range expands to the downside and the price drops below $21, it will suggest the resumption of the downtrend. The AVAX/USDT pair could then decline to $18. Alternatively, if the price explodes above the 20-day EMA, it may clear the path for a possible rally to $33 and then $37.

SHIB/USDT

Shiba Inu (SHIB) has been trading close to the strong support at $0.000010 since June 7. Although bulls have defended the support, they have failed to achieve a strong rebound.

This increases the possibility of a break below the strong support at $0.000010. If that happens, the SHIB/USDT pair will complete a bearish descending triangle pattern. The pair could then decline to the May 12 intraday low of $0.000009. If this support also cracks, the next stop could be $0.000006.

To invalidate this bearish view, the buyers will have to push the price above the downtrend line. That could clear the path for a possible rally to $0.000014.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

Ethereum eyes fresh yearly lows vs. Bitcoin as bulls snub successful ‘Merge’ rehearsal

ETH price could drop by another 25% this month, a mix of technical and fundamental indicators suggest.

Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) resumed its decline against Bitcoin (BTC) two days after a successful rehearsal of its proof-of-stake (PoS) algorithm on its longest-running testnet “Ropsten.”

The ETH/BTC fell by 2.5% to 0.0586 on June 10. The pair’s downside move came as a part of a correction that had started a day before when it reached a local peak of 0.0598, hinting at weaker bullish sentiment despite the optimistic “Merge” update.

*ETH/BTC four-hour price chart. Source: TradingView*

Interestingly, the selloff occurred near ETH/BTC’s 50-4H exponential moving average (50-4H EMA; the red wave) around 0.06. This technical resistance has been capping the pair’s bullish attempts since May 12, as shown in the chart above.

Staked Ether behind ETH/BTC’s weakness?

Ethereum’s strong bearish technicals appeared to have overpowered its PoS testnet breakthrough. And the ongoing imbalance between Ether and its supposedly-pegged token Staked Ether (stETH) could be the reason behind it, according to Delphi Digital.

“Testnet Merge was a success, yet the ETH market did not react,” the crypto research firm wrote, adding:

“Concerns over the ETH-stETH link are swirling as the health of financial institutions post-Terra is questioned.”

Several DeFi platforms that have staked Ether in Ethereum’s PoS smart contract will not be able to access their funds if the Merge gets delayed. Thus, they risk running into ETH liquidation troubles as they attempt to pay back their stakeholders.

That could prompt these DeFi platforms to sell their existing stETH holdings for ETH. Meanwhile, if they run out of stETH, the selloff pressure risks shifting to their other holdings, including ETH.

If Swissborg tried to exit their entire stETH position, they would bump the peg down another cent.

More importantly, this would consume 25% of the remaining ETH liquidity in the pool. Swissborg also contributes a few thousand Eth to this pool… 6/ pic.twitter.com/sWIdzMWNvU

— Dirty Bubble Media: ⏰ (@MikeBurgersburg) June 8, 2022

More downside for Ether price?

From a technical standpoint, Ether’s latest decline against Bitcoin pushed ETH/BTC below a multi-month support level around 0.0589, thus exposing the pair to further correction in June, followed by Q3/2022.

The now-broken support level coincides with the 0.382 Fib line of the Fibonacci retracement graph, as shown in the chart below. If ETH/BTC’s correction extends, the pair’s next downside target comes to be around the 0.5 Fib line of the same graph — around 0.0509, a new 2022 low.

*ETH/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView*

Interestingly, the 0.0509-level is near ETH/BTC’s 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the blue wave) and its multi-year ascending trendline support. Together, this support confluence could be where ETH/BTC exhausts its bearish cycle, allowing the pair to eye 0.0589 as its interim rebound target.

Conversely, a further break below the confluence could prompt Ether to watch 0.043 BTC (near the 0.618 Fib line) as its next downside target, down almost 25% from June 10’s price.

Brandt’s bearish ETH call — But community predicts $3K before Merge

Peter Brandt noted that ETH could drop by 29% if the downside of a potential descending triangle chart pattern is completed.

Veteran futures trader Peter Brandt has suggested that the price of Ether (ETH) could drop to as low as $1,268 in the coming month, but the consensus view of 15,500 members of the CoinMarketCap community is that the price will have hit roughly $3,131 by June 30.

The Ethereum network is now in the final steps of its long-awaited Merge with the Beacon Chain and transition to proof-of-stake (PoS), with developers confirming on Wednesday that they successfully completed the Ropsten testnet merge.

The Ropsten testnet has now been merged!

What a historic and thrilling day for the Ethereum community and what a thrilling day for

Next up, 2 more public testnet merges and then mainnet

The Merge is coming

— sassal.eth (@sassal0x) June 8, 2022

While the timeframe has often been subject to delays, the Merge is slated to go live in August if all goes to plan. The switch to PoS will massively decrease the energy consumption of the Ethereum network while also improving its security.

The price of ETH has barely responded to the latest encouraging developments, however, and is down 1.7% over the past 24 hours to sit at $1,788 at the time of writing.

Brandt has been trading since 1975 and has gained the attention of the crypto community in the past by predicting some of Bitcoin’s (BTC) historical heights and crashes.

If the bearish scenario he outlined for ETH comes true, it would mark a further 29% drop this month.

On Tuesday, Brandt highlighted a month-to-month chart from April to June to his 648,000 Twitter followers and noted that the rest of June could be rough for Ether if the market sentiment doesn’t turn significantly:

“Classical charting 101. This is a POSSIBLE descending triangle. A downside completion, unless immediately nullified, would not be constructive.”

Classical charting 101

This is a POSSIBLE descending triangle. A downside completion, unless immediately nullified, would not be constructive$ETHUSD pic.twitter.com/33kOZK4tjF

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) June 7, 2022

Trader Crypto Tony also highlighted a similar scenario to his 201,000 Twitter followers, questioning whether a descending triangle on the ETH chart was “too obvious” to ignore. Crypto Tony’s bearish estimates were slightly higher, however, at the $1,450–$1,600 range.

But the community on CoinMarketCap seems bullish — or at least high on hopium — about the near future of ETH, with 15,466 voters accounting for an average price estimate of $3,131.75 by June 30. The climb to the level would mark a mammoth increase of 75.37%.

CoinMarketCap enables the community to vote on predicted price targets via a tab under its listed asset pages. Apart from this prediction, around 8,500 people have estimated ETH will have hit $2,981.27 by July 31, or a 66.94% increase, shortly before the Merge.

In general, the community on CoinMarketCap that votes on ETH price predictions has had varying levels of success since December.

They predicted ETH’s closing price of 2021 with 88.40% accuracy, meaning they were 11.6% off the actual price of $3,682.63 with their estimation of $4,109.65.

They then predicted the bearish drop of January with 54% accuracy, February at 76.17% accuracy, March at 89.91%, and April at 62.41%. However, they fell off massively in May with 16.97% accuracy, although that was an unprecedented month, in which Do Kwon’s Terra ecosystem caused a multi-billion-dollar market crash.

Price analysis 6/8: BTC, ETH, BNB, ADA, XRP, SOL, DOGE, DOT, AVAX, SHIB

Bitcoin and altcoins are losing bullish momentum and persistent selling at overhead resistance suggests that the current consolidation is far from over.

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade in a range with the local tops and bottoms coinciding with increased whale activity in the region, according to on-chain analytics resource Whalemap.

The range-bound action in Bitcoin has kept the analysts guessing and a few expect the consolidation to continue for some more time, while others anticipate another leg lower.

A June 6 Glassnode report said that the aggregated realized losses from long-term holders reflected more than 0.006% of the market capitalization on May 29. This is in comparison to the peak of 0.015% of the market capitalization reached during the 2018 to 2019 bear market.

Along with the quantum of losses, investors may also have to be prepared for a longer duration of subdued prices. The duration of the current loss for long-term investors is only one month old, while the previous losses remained roughly for a year.

Could the lackluster trading action in Bitcoin and other major altcoins continue? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin plunged below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($30,565) on June 7 but a positive sign is that the bulls aggressively purchased the dip to the trendline of the ascending triangle pattern. This resulted in a strong recovery as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick. The ascending triangle pattern remains intact favoring the buyers.

However, a minor negative is that the bulls could not build upon the momentum on June 8. This gave an opportunity to the bears who have again pulled the price back below the 20-day EMA. This suggests that bears continue to sell in the zone between the 20-day EMA and $32,659.

If bears sink the price below the trendline, the BTC/USDT pair could drop to $28,630 where buying may emerge. If that happens, it will suggest that the pair may remain range-bound between $32,659 and $28,630 for a few more days.

The next directional move is likely to begin on a break above $32,659 or below $28,630. Until then, volatile range-bound action is likely to continue.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($1,908) on June 6, indicating that bears are not willing to cede ground to the bulls. The sellers then tried to sink the price below the critical support of $1,700 on June 7 but the long tail on the candlestick shows aggressive buying by the bulls near the support.

The price is currently coiling between the downsloping 20-day EMA and $1,700. This is likely to result in a range expansion that could set the stage for the next directional move.

If buyers drive the price above the 20-day EMA, the ETH/USDT pair could rally to $2,159. The bears may again mount a strong defense at this level. If the price turns down from it, the pair may spend some time inside the $2,159 to $1,700 range.

A break above $2,159 will be the first sign that the pair may have bottomed out while a break below $1,700 could signal the resumption of the downtrend.

BNB/USDT

BNB turned down from the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle pattern on June 6 and plunged below the support line. This suggests that the bears continue to sell aggressively at higher levels.

The bears pulled the price below the immediate support at $286 on June 7 but the long wick on the day’s candlestick shows strong buying at lower levels. The bulls are attempting to push the price back above the support line on June 8.

If they manage to do that, the BNB/USDT pair could try to rise above the resistance line and trap the aggressive bears. Conversely, if the price turns down from the current level, it will suggest that the bears have flipped the support line into resistance. That could increase the possibility of a drop to $265.

ADA/USDT

The long wick on Cardano’s (ADA) June 6 and 7 candlestick shows that bears are selling the rallies to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($0.65). Although bears tried to pull the price below the 20-day EMA ($0.58) on June 7, the bulls held their ground.

The buyers are again attempting to push the price above the 50-day SMA. If they succeed, the ADA/USDT pair could rally to the breakdown level of $0.74. This is an important level for the bears to defend because a break and close above it could suggest a potential change in trend. The pair could then rally toward the psychological level of $1.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 50-day SMA or $0.74, the bears will attempt to pull the pair below the 20-day EMA and gain the upper hand.

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) formed an outside-day candlestick pattern on June 7, with the price rebounding off the strong support at $0.38 and closing near the overhead resistance at the downtrend line.

However, buyers could not build upon this move and push the price above the downtrend line on June 8. This suggests that bears continue to sell near resistance levels. The bears will again attempt to sink the price below $0.38.

If they succeed, the XRP/USDT pair will complete a descending triangle pattern. That could result in a decline to the May 12 intraday low of $0.33. If this support cracks, the next stop could be the pattern target of $0.30.

This negative view could be invalidated in the short term if bulls propel the price above the 20-day EMA. The pair could then rally to $0.46.

SOL/USDT

Solana’s (SOL) attempt to start a recovery met with stiff resistance at the 20-day EMA ($45), which suggests that the trend remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.

The bears will try to pull the price below the crucial support zone between $37 and $35. If they manage to do that, the SOL/USDT pair could resume its downtrend. The pair could then decline to $30.

On the contrary, if the price rebounds off the support zone, it will suggest that bulls are accumulating at lower levels. A break above the 20-day EMA will be the first sign that the selling pressure may be reducing. The pair could then rise to $50 and later to $60.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) once again turned down from the 20-day EMA ($0.08) on June 6, indicating that bears are selling on rallies. A minor positive is that the bulls purchased the dip on June 7, indicating buying at lower levels.

The DOGE/USDT pair has been stuck in a tight range between the 20-day EMA and $0.07, indicating uncertainty among the bulls and the bears. Usually, tight ranges resolve with an expansion but it is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout.

If the price rises above the 20-day EMA, buyers who may be waiting on the sidelines could enter and push the pair toward the psychological level of $0.10. On the contrary, if the price slips below $0.07, the pair may resume the downtrend.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) attempted to rise above the 20-day EMA ($10) on June 6 but the long wick on the day’s candlestick shows strong selling by the bears.

The DOT/USDT pair dipped below the support line on June 7, indicating that the symmetrical triangle resolved in favor of the sellers. The pair could next drop to the strong support at $8.50 where the buyers will try to stall the decline.

This negative view could invalidate in the short term if the price turns up from the current level and rises above the resistance line of the triangle. Such a move will suggest that the break below the support line may have been a bear trap. The pair could then rise to the 50-day SMA ($12.35).

AVAX/USDT

The buyers tried to push Avalanche (AVAX) above the 20-day EMA ($28) on June 6 but the long wick on the day’s candlestick shows that the bears are defending the level aggressively.

The price is getting squeezed between the 20-day EMA and the strong support at $21 but this tight range trading is unlikely to continue for long.

If bulls drive the AVAX/USDT pair above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest the start of a recovery that may reach $37. The positive divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) also supports a relief rally in the near term.

Alternatively, if the range expands to the downside and the price plummets below $21, the pair could resume its downtrend and drop to $18.

SHIB/USDT

The bears tried to sink Shiba Inu (SHIB) below the strong support of $0.000010 on June 7 but the bulls successfully defended the level as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick.

The longer the price trades below the 20-day EMA ($0.000012), the greater the possibility of a break below $0.000010. If that happens, the SHIB/USDT pair could drop to $0.000009 where the bulls may attempt to stall the decline.

To invalidate the bearish view, the bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, the pair could rally to $0.000014 where the bears are likely to mount a strong defense.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

Ethereum ‘double Doji’ pattern hints at a 50% ETH price rally by September

ETH’s bullish reversal candlesticks form near a strong support confluence, raising anticipations about a sharp upside retracement ahead.

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), looks poised to undergo a sharp upside retracement in the coming weeks after painting a so-called “double Doji” pattern, accompanied by a few bullish technical indicators.

Ether strong support confluence meets Dojis

To recap, a Doji is a candlestick that forms when a financial instrument opens and closes around the same level on a specified timeframe, be it hourly, daily or weekly. From a technical perspective, a Doji represents indecision in the market, meaning a balance of strength between bears and bulls.

So, if a market is trending downwards when a Doji appears, traditional analysts view it as a sign of slowing selling momentum. As a result, traders may look at a Doji as a sign to existing their short positions or open new long positions in anticipation of a price reversal.

Meanwhile, a double Doji shows a continued state of bias conflict among traders, which could result in the price breaking out in either direction.

With ETH/USD forming a similar pattern on its weekly chart, the token looks ready to log strong trend-defining moves in the coming sessions.

*ETH/USD weekly price chart featuring two Doji formations in a row. Source: TradingView*

Some of Ether’s technicals favor a decisive rebound move, beginning with its 200-week exponential moving average (200-day EMA; the blue wave in the chart above) near $1,625, which has served as a strong support level in May 2022.

Next, Ether gets another concrete price floor in the $1,500–$1,700 range, which was instrumental in capping the token’s bearish attempts between February and July 2021. Coupled with a double Doji, these technical indicators anticipate a price rebound ahead.

A 50% ETH rally ahead?

If ETH price rebounds as described above, then the next bullish target is the 0.5 Fib line (near 2,120) of the Fibonacci retracement graph, drawn from the $85-swing low to the $4,300-swing high.

*ETH/USD weekly price chart featuring Fib support and resistance targets. Source: TradingView*

That would mark a 20% upside move. Meanwhile, an extended move above the 0.5 Fib line could have traders eye the 0.382 Fib line near $2,700 as their next upside target, a level coinciding with ETH’s 50-week EMA (the red wave), by the end of September 2022.

This would be a nearly 50% price rally.

Conversely, if the double Doji pattern resolves in a breakdown below the support range, it could push Ether toward $1,400. This level coincides with ETH’s 2018 top and was instrumental as a support in February 2021, as shown below.

*ETH/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView*

A decisive breakdown below $1,400 then opens the door to the 0.786 Fib line near $1,000 as the next downside target.

Price analysis 6/6: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, AVAX, SHIB

BTC and altcoins flashed green at the weekly open, but overhead resistance levels will continue to pose a challenge in the short-term.

After nine successive weeks of red weekly candles, Bitcoin (BTC) printed a green weekly candle on June 5. Leading into this week, buyers kept up their momentum with a strong weekly open that boosted BTC price to $31,800.

Going forward, traders might keep a close eye on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, which is due on June 10. Depending on the figures, this could keep the volatility elevated as investors digest the report and speculate on the next possible move of the United States Federal Reserve.

Analysts are divided about the next directional move for Bitcoin. While some believe a bottom has been made, others anticipate another leg down. For analyst Bob Loukas, the price action in the summer could remain uninteresting and he expects the new cycle to begin late in the year.

Could bulls sustain higher levels or will bears sell aggressively and pull the price down? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

After two small range days on June 4 and 5, the range expanded on June 6 and Bitcoin soared above the 20-day exponential moving average (E($30,510). The bulls are attempting to push the price to the overhead resistance at $32,659.

The price action of the past few days has formed an ascending triangle pattern, which will complete on a break and close above $32,659. If that happens, the BTC/USDT pair could start a new up-move. The pattern target of the breakout from the triangle is $38,618.

The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the relative strength index (RSI) is near the midpoint, suggesting that the selling pressure is reducing.

This positive view could invalidate if the price turns down sharply and plunges below the trendline of the triangle. The pair could then drop to the strong support at $28,630 where the bulls may try to arrest the decline. A break and close below this support could tilt the advantage in favor of the bears.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) bounced off $1,737 on June 3, indicating that bulls are attempting to defend the crucial support of $1,700. The buyers are attempting to push the price above the overhead resistance at the 20-day EMA ($1,930) on June 6.

If they succeed, the ETH/USDT pair could pick up momentum and rally to $2,016. Above this level, the pair could reach the stiff overhead resistance at $2,159. The bears are likely to defend this level aggressively. If the price turns down from this resistance, the pair could consolidate between $2,159 and $1,700 for a few more days.

The long wick on the June 6 candlestick suggests that bears continue to defend the 20-day EMA. This indicates that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. The bears will now try to pull the pair below $1,700 and resume the downtrend.

BNB/USDT

BNB has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears. The bulls are attempting to push the price above the resistance line but the bears are not willing to cede ground.

If the price turns down from the overhead resistance, the bears will again try to pull the BNB/USDT pair below the support line. If they manage to do that, the pair could decline to $265 where buying may emerge.

Alternatively, if bulls push and sustain the price above the resistance line, it will suggest that the sellers are losing their grip. The pair could then rally to the breakdown level of $350. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break and close above it could signal that the downtrend may be over.

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) has been trading inside a bearish descending triangle pattern. The bulls are attempting to push the price above the downtrend line but the bears are posing a strong challenge as seen from the long wick on the day’s candlestick.

If bulls propel the price above the downtrend line, it will negate the bearish pattern. That could cause a short squeeze, pushing the XRP/USDT pair to $0.46 and later to the psychological level at $0.50.

Conversely, if the price turns down from the downtrend line, the pair could drop to the $0.38 support. If bears pull the price below $0.38, the descending triangle pattern will complete. The pair could then decline to the important support at $0.33. A break and close below this support could resume the downtrend.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) had been sustaining above the 20-day EMA ($0.56) for the past few days suggesting accumulation by the bulls. Buying picked up on June 6 and the bulls are trying to push the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.66).

If they succeed, the ADA/USDT pair could rally to the breakdown level of $0.74. This level may again act as a major hurdle but if the bulls overcome it, the recovery could pick up momentum. The pair could then rally to $0.90.

The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI is just above the midpoint, suggesting a slight edge to buyers.

This bullish view could invalidate in the short term if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the pair could gradually slide toward the strong support at $0.44.

SOL/USDT

Solana (SOL) plunged below the critical support of $37 on June 4 but a minor positive is that the bulls purchased at lower levels. This may have caught the aggressive bears off-guard, which resulted in a strong recovery as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick.

The RSI has formed a positive divergence, indicating that the bearish momentum may be reducing. The bulls are attempting to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($46). If they succeed, the SOL/USDT pair could rally to $55 and thereafter to $60.

On the contrary, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the trend remains negative and bears are selling on rallies. The bears will then make one more attempt to resume the downtrend by pulling the pair below $35.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) is stuck between the 20-day EMA ($0.08) and $0.08 for the past few days but this tight range trading is unlikely to continue for long.

If buyers push the price above the 20-day EMA, the DOGE/USDT pair could rally toward the psychological resistance at $0.10. This level may again act as a hurdle but if bulls overcome it, the pair could rally to $0.12.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears continue to sell on minor rallies. If bears sink the price below $0.08, the pair could drop to $0.07. A break and close below this support will suggest the resumption of the downtrend.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) has formed a symmetrical triangle, which usually acts as a continuation pattern. The buyers are attempting to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($10) and challenge the resistance line of the triangle.

A break and close above the triangle will be the first indication of a potential trend change. The DOT/USDT pair could rise to $12 and then attempt a rally to the breakdown level of $14. The bears are likely to defend this level aggressively.

Alternatively, if the price turns down from the overhead resistance and breaks below the triangle, it will suggest that bears are in control. The pair could then decline to $8 and later retest the May 12 intraday low of $7.30.

AVAX/USDT

Avalanche (AVAX) bounced off $22.14 on June 4, indicating that bulls are defending the $21.35 support with vigor. The buyers have pushed the price above the downtrend line and are attempting to clear the overhead hurdle at the 20-day EMA ($28).

If they manage to do that, the AVAX/USDT pair could pick up momentum and start its northward journey toward $33 and then $37. Such a move will suggest that the bulls are back in the game.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears remain active at higher levels. The pair could then slide toward $21.35. A break and close below this support could start the next leg of the downtrend.

SHIB/USDT

The buyers have successfully defended the $0.000010 support for the past several days but they have not been able to push Shiba Inu (SHIB) above the 20-day EMA ($0.000012). This suggests that buying dries up at higher levels.

The tight range trading between $0.000010 and the 20-day EMA is unlikely to continue for long. If bears sink the price below $0.000010, the SHIB/USDT pair could retest the May 12 intraday low at $0.000009. A break and close below this level could signal the resumption of the downtrend.

Alternatively, if buyers propel the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rally to the overhead resistance at $0.000014. The bears are expected to mount a strong defense at this level.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

3 reasons Ethereum price risks 25% downside in June

A mix of on-chain, fundamental and technical factors suggests more pain for Ether bulls ahead.

Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) has dropped more than half of its value in 2022 in dollar terms, while also losing value against Bitcoin (BTC) and now remains pinned below $2,000 for several reasons.

What’s more, ETH price could face even bigger losses in June due to another slew of factors, which will be discussed below.

Ethereum funds lose capital en masse

Investors have withdrawn $250 million out of Ethereum-based investment funds in 2022, according to CoinShares’ weekly market report published May 31.

The massive outflow appears in contrast to other coins. For instance, investors have poured $369 million into Bitcoin-based investment funds in 2022.

Meanwhile, Solana and Cardano, layer-one blockchain protocols competing with Ethereum, have attracted $104 million and $9 million, respectively.

*Flow into/from crypto funds (by assets). Source: CoinShares/Bloomberg*

The withdrawals from Ethereum funds are a sign of how the recent crash in TerraUSD (UST) and Terra (LUNA) — tokens within Terra’s algorithmic stablecoin ecosystem — has dampened interest in the overall decentralized finance (DeFi) sector.

ETH’s bullish prospects remain glued to anticipations of a boom in the DeFi market, because Ethereum’s blockchain host a majority of financial applications in the sector. As of June 5, the total valued locked (TVL) inside the Ethereum-based apps was $68.71 million, almost 65% of the total DeFi TVL.

*Ethereum TVL as of June 5. Source: DeFi Llama*

But, the TVL still reflects a massive retreat from Ethereum’s DeFi pools, which, before the collapse of Luna Classic (LUNC) and TerraUSD Classic (USTC) on May 9, was hovering around $100 billion.

With macro risks led by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policies, coupled with a cautious outlook around the DeFi sector, Ether looks poised to continue its decline in June, according to Ilan Solot, a partner at Tagus Capital.

He told the Financial Times:

“If the Federal Reserve is tightening, the world is in recession, and people need to pay $4.5 per gallon of gas, they’ll have less to invest in DeFi or spend on blockchain games.”

Sluggish technicals

Trading behavior witnessed since May also paints a bearish outlook for Ethereum.

In detail, Ether has been fluctuating inside a range defined by a horizontal trendline support and a falling trendline resistance. The pattern looks more or less like a “descending triangle,” a bearish continuation pattern when formed during a downtrend.

As a rule of technical analysis, descending triangles resolve after the price breaks decisively below their support trendline and then falls by as much as the triangle’s maximum height. Ether risks undergoing a similar downside move in June, as shown in the chart below.

*ETH/USD daily price chart featuring ‘descending triangle’ setup. Source: TradingView*

If ETH’s price breaks below the triangle’s lower trendline, it risks falling toward $1,350 in June, down about 25% from today’s price.

ETH reserves on exchanges are increasing

The total number of Ether balances at crypto exchanges globally has increased by 550,459 ETH since May, data from CryptoQuant shows.

That amounts to almost $950 million worth of inflows into the exchanges’ hot wallets since the beginning of the Terra debacle.

*Ethereum exchange reserves. Source: CryptoQuant*

Typically, traders send tokens to exchanges when they want to trade them for other assets. Thus, selling pressure would likely increase if the downtrend in ETH reserves on exchanges begins to reverse.

Price analysis 6/1: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, AVAX, SHIB

BTC and altcoins met resistance at a key moving average, leading traders to wonder whether the current pullback is a lower support test, or proof that bears are still in control.

Bitcoin (BTC) has made a tentative start to the month of June, suggesting that bears have not gone into hibernation just yet. Although Bitcoin is trading nearly 55% off its all-time high of $69,000, whales and institutions remain cautious and have not jumped into the market with gusto, according to BlockTrends analyst Caue Oliveira.

According to CryptoQuant contributor Venturefounder, if Bitcoin repeats the historical patterns seen after the previous halving cycles, then a bottom may be formed between $14,000 and $21,000 in the next six months. Thereafter, Bitcoin may chop around the $28,000 to $40,000 range for a large part of the next year and be around $40,000 during the halving.

Crypto’s bear market has not stopped Goldman Sachs from exploring the possibility of integrating its derivatives products into FTX.US derivatives offerings. This suggests that the investment bank expects derivatives demand to pick up in the future.

Has Bitcoin started a bottoming formation? Is the short-term downtrend in altcoins over? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin reached the overhead resistance at $32,659 on May 31 but the bulls could not clear this hurdle. The Doji candlestick pattern on May 31 indicates uncertainty among the buyers and sellers.

This uncertainty resolved in favor of the bears on June 1 and they pulled the price below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($30,741). If the price sustains below the 20-day EMA, the next stop could be $28,630. The buyers are expected to defend this level with all their might.

If the price rebounds off $28,600, the BTC/USDT pair could again attempt a rally to $32,659. If that happens, the pair may consolidate between these two levels for a few days.

The next trending move could begin if the price breaks above or below the range. If the price soars above $32,659, the rally could reach the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($34,629). The downtrend could resume on a break below the $28,630 to $26,700 support zone.

ETH/USDT

The bears stalled Ether’s (ETH) relief rally at the 20-day EMA ($2,009) on May 31, indicating that they are not allowing the bulls to get a foothold.

The bears will try to pull the price to the vital support at $1,700. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because if it cracks, the ETH/USDT pair could witness panic selling. The pair could then resume its downtrend and plummet to $1,300.

Alternatively, if the price rebounds off $1,700, it will suggest that the bulls are buying proactively at these levels. The bulls will then again try to push the price above the 20-day EMA and challenge the stiff resistance at $2,159.

BNB/USDT

BNB rose above the immediate resistance of $320 on May 30 but the bulls have not been able to build upon this move. This indicates that bears are posing a strong challenge at $325.

The sellers have pulled the price to the uptrend line. This is an important level to keep an eye on in the near term. If the price rebounds off this level, it will suggest that bulls are accumulating on dips. That could enhance the prospects of a break above $325.

Contrary to this assumption, if bears sink the price below the uptrend line, the BNB/USDT pair could drop to the strong support zone between $286 and $265. A break below $265 could send the pair tumbling to the vital support at $211.

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) rose above the downtrend line on May 30 but the bulls could not clear the overhead hurdle at the 20-day EMA ($0.43). This suggests that bears are not willing to surrender their advantage.

The bears will try to sink the price below the downtrend line. If that happens, the XRP/USDT pair could decline to $0.38. The buyers are likely to defend this level and a bounce off it will point to a possible consolidation in the near term.

On the contrary, if the price rebounds off the downtrend line, it will suggest that bulls are attempting to flip this level to support. If that happens, the possibility of a break above the 20-day EMA increases. The pair could then rally to the psychological resistance at $0.50.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) broke above the 20-day EMA ($0.56) on May 30 and followed it up with another sharp up-move on May 31. This pushed the price to the 50-day SMA ($0.70) but the long wick on the day’s candlestick suggests that bears are selling near this level.

The bears will try to pull the price back below the 20-day EMA and trap the aggressive bulls. If that happens, the ADA/USDT pair could drop to $0.44 where buying may emerge.

That could suggest a consolidation inside the large range between $0.44 and $0.74. The flattening 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) just below the midpoint also indicate a range-bound action in the near term.

The bulls may gain the upper hand if the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA and breaks above $0.74. Such a move will suggest that the downtrend may be over.

SOL/USDT

Solana’s (SOL) relief rally is facing stiff resistance from the bears near the psychological level at $50. This suggests that bears have not yet given up and they continue to sell on rallies.

The bears will try to pull the price to the strong support at $40. The bulls are expected to buy the dips to this level. If the price rebounds off this support, the buyers will again try to push the SOL/USDT pair above the 20-day EMA ($51). If they succeed, the pair could rally to $60 and thereafter attempt an up-move to the breakdown level of $75.

On the other hand, if bears sink the price below $40, the pair could drop to the May 12 intraday low of $37. The pair could resume its downtrend if bears pull the price below this crucial support.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin’s (DOGE) price has been trading near the 20-day EMA ($0.09) for the past two days but the bulls have failed to achieve a breakout. This suggests that bears are defending the 20-day EMA with vigor.

The bears will try to sink the price to the strong support at $0.07. This level has held on two previous occasions; hence, the bulls will again try to defend it. If the price rebounds off this support, the DOGE/USDT pair may remain stuck inside a range between $0.10 and $0.07 for some time.

If bulls drive the price above $0.10, it will suggest that the downtrend could be weakening. The pair could then rally to $0.12. Conversely, the downtrend could resume on a break below $0.07.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) is facing resistance at the 20-day EMA ($10.55) but the bulls have not allowed the price to sustain below $10. This suggests strong demand at lower levels.

If bulls push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA, the DOT/USDT pair could rally to $12. This level may act as a minor hurdle but if crossed, the recovery could reach the strong overhead resistance at $14.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and sustains below $10, the decline could extend to the strong support at $8. A strong bounce off this support will suggest that the pair may remain range-bound between $8 and $12 for some time.

AVAX/USDT

Avalanche (AVAX) turned down from the downtrend line on May 31, suggesting that bears continue to defend the level with vigor. The bears will now try to pull the price below the strong support zone of $23.51 to $21.35.

If they succeed, the AVAX/USDT pair will complete a descending triangle pattern, indicating the start of the next leg of the downtrend. The pair could then decline to $20.

Although the downsloping 20-day EMA ($31.33) favors the bears, the positive divergence on the RSI suggests that the bearish momentum may be weakening. If the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the 20-day EMA, buying could resume. The bulls will then try to propel the pair to $38.

SHIB/USDT

Shiba Inu’s (SHIB) recovery is facing stiff resistance at the 20-day EMA ($0.000012), suggesting that the sentiment remains negative and bears are selling on rallies.

The bears will try to pull the price to the strong support at $0.000010. This level is likely to attract aggressive buying by the bulls. If the price rebounds off $0.000010, the SHIB/USDT pair could rally toward the 20-day EMA.

If buyers push the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rise to $0.000014 and later to the breakdown level of $0.000017. On the downside, the bears will have to sink the price below $0.000009 to signal the resumption of the downtrend.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.