Ethereum

3 reasons why Solana can repeat Ethereum’s 2018 fractal to 5,000% gains

Solana’s price can mimic Ethereum’s impressive recovery after the 2018 bear market, analysts argue.

Solana (SOL) still has room to fall in the near term, but SOL/USD can rally 5,000% if it follows in the footsteps of its top rival Ethereum.

That Ethereum 2018 fractal

SOL risks dropping to $15 on anticipations it would behave like Ethereum during the market crash in 2018.

Notably, Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) price fell to nearly $79 in December 2018 after undergoing a 95% correction earlier that year from its peak of $1,529. Afterward, it underwent a long recovery, rising nearly 6,000% over the next four years and thus hitting a record high of around $4,950 in November 2022.

*ETH/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView*

Solana, which rivals Ethereum for its top spot in the smart contracts sector, has fallen by over 85% after peaking out in November 2021 at nearly $267. That leaves the token with the room to fall by another 10% when measured from its said record high.

Popular analyst PostyXBT says SOL could decline to $15, thus mirroring Ethereum’s bear cycle in 2018. What’s more, the Solana token could see an Ethereum-like recovery in the coming years that could take SOL price to over $750, he adds.

$ETH did a ~60x from the 2018 lows despite many people calling for it to hit zero…

If $SOL drops to $15 I think a ~50x is on the cards whilst people call for it to nuke to zero.

For those who question the functionality issues and outages, remember that hype always wins.

— Posty (@PostyXBT) July 11, 2022

Meanwhile, another popular analyst, Spencer Noon, thinks on the same lines, albeit without sharing a clear upside target.

Noon argues that Solana has been going through a “disillusionment” phase that plagued the Ethereum market in 2018, noting that the project would eventually overcome its difficulties.

“Solana has a vibrant developer ecosystem, and its downtime issues are solvable. This will be obvious in retrospect,” he said.

Solana funds attract $110M in 2022

Solana-based investment funds have attracted over $110 million in inflows in 2022 as of July 1, compared to $450.9 million that exited Ethereum funds, according to a recent weekly report by CoinShares.

*Net inflows into/out of crypto funds by assets. Source: CoinShares*

The fund inflows appear as Solana’s market capitalization gradually creeps toward Ethereum’s following its launch in March 2020.

The Ethereum/Solana market cap ratio is currently around 32.5 versus the December 2020 peak of 525.3, according to data tracked by TradingView.

*ETH/USD to SOL/USD market cap ratio. Source: TradingView*

The metrics suggests a strong capital shift into the Solana ecosystem, a trend that may continue in the coming years.

NFT volume

Solana is also posing a serious challenge to Ethereum based on other key metrics.

For instance, according to Nansen, Solana’s weekly volumes across major nonfungible token (NFT) marketplaces, including OpenSea and MagicEden, have been in a constant uptrend, whereas Ethereum’s have tapered off in recent months.

*Ethereum NFT volume (left) versus Solana’s (right). Source: Nansen*

Solana fees vs. Ethereum

Additionally, cheaper fees are the primary reason why NFT volumes on the Solana blockchain have risen compared to Ethereum, according to Arcane Research’s latest weekly report.

“The pace of the Ethereum blockchain network has decreased while transaction costs have increased, making way for Solana-based NFT marketplaces to pick up steam,” the report noted, adding:

“The average transaction fee on Ethereum was $6.5 in June, in contrast to the few cents users currently pay for block space on Solana.

Similar to NFT volume, the amount of gas fees paid has also seen a strong uptrend since summer 2021 with a smaller drawdown from its peak.

Daily Gas Paid Ethereum vs Solana$ETH $SOL pic.twitter.com/FJTibaEkVG

— Whis (@whisz7) July 11, 2022

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

BTC bull Michael Saylor: Ethereum is ‘obviously’ a security

The MicroStrategy CEO argued that ETH is a security as it was issued via an ICO and its network has had many fundamental changes over the years.

MicroStrategy CEO and Bitcoin (BTC) bull Michael Saylor said that Ethereum (ETH) is ‘obviously’ a security as he doubled down on labeling BTC as the only commodity in the crypto sector.

In an interview with Altcoin Daily, Saylor was questioned on his take regarding the classification of both BTC and ETH as commodities by U.S. Senators such as Kirsten Gillibrand and Cynthia Lummis, along with figureheads from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Saylor provided a lengthy run down on what he thou are the fundamental differences between the Bitcoin and Ethereum networks, as he suggested that only the former has remained unchanged over the years:

“I think Ethereum is a security, I think it’s pretty obvious, […] it was issued by an ICO, theres a management team, there was a pre-mine, there’s a hard fork, there’s continual hard forks, there’s a difficulty bomb that keeps getting pushed back.”

The CEO argued that the constant need for software upgrades on a network driven by a team or entity represents an indicator that ETH is a security. He pointed to the design of the long-delayed difficulty bomb, which he said will “murder” the entire ETH mining industry as examples of such.

According to Saylor, for a digital asset to be classified as a commodity, it needs to be backed by a “completely decentralized protocol where nobody can change it even if they wanted to change it.”

“For it to be a commodity there can’t be an issuer, and the truth is you can’t really make decisions. I mean one of the fundamental insights in the crypto industry is that the fact that you can change it, is what makes it a security,” he said.

Securities are generally understood as fungible and tradable financial instruments that are used to raise capital in public or private markets. While commodities are seen as goods or assets that have a monetary utility. Assets like gold and silver are seen as hard commodities, while soft commodities are goods such as rice or tea.

Saylor reiterated that BTC is a commodity as the core of the Bitcoin network cannot be altered, much like the physical makeup of gold:

“If you want to establish yourself as a digital commodity, then you’re trying to create something like gold in cyberspace.”

Despite Saylor’s arguments, however, the Bitcoin network has seen multiple network upgrades over the years. The most notable one in recent history was the Taproot soft fork from November 2021, which aimed to improve Bitcoin’s scripting capabilities and privacy.

Asked about his thoughts on other altcoins such as Cardano’s native token ADA, Saylor once again echoed his maximalist sentiments, stating:

“I think all of the proof-of-stake networks are securities and they’re all very risky […] it’s above my pay grade, the regulators will decide whether or not they allow them to continue or nor noth they don’t allow them to continue.”

The MicroStrategy went on to note that one of the major reasons he favors BTC over all other crypto assets is that he holds concerns over altcoins being non-compliant security tokens that could get regulated out of existence.

Saylor’s MicroStrategy has continued to snap up BTC despite the tanking value of the asset in 2022, and as of June 29, the firm held 129,699 BTC worth around $3.98 billion at the time.

BTC bull Michael Saylor: Ethereum is ‘obviously’ a security

The MicroStrategy CEO argued that ETH is a security as it was issued via an ICO and its network has had many fundamental changes over the years.

MicroStrategy CEO and Bitcoin (BTC) bull Michael Saylor said that Ether (ETH) is ‘obviously’ a security as he doubled down on labeling BTC as the only commodity in the crypto sector.

In an interview with Altcoin Daily, Saylor was questioned on his take regarding the classification of both BTC and ETH as commodities by United States Senators such as Kirsten Gillibrand and Cynthia Lummis, along with figureheads from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

“I think Ethereum is a security, I think it’s pretty obvious, […] it was issued by an ICO, theres a management team, there was a pre-mine, there’s a hard fork, there’s continual hard forks, there’s a difficulty bomb that keeps getting pushed back.”

Saylor reiterated that BTC is a commodity as the core of the Bitcoin network cannot be altered, much like the physical makeup of gold:

“If you want to establish yourself as a digital commodity, then you’re trying to create something like gold in cyberspace.”

Asked about his thoughts on other altcoins such as Cardano (ADA), Saylor once again echoed his maximalist sentiments, stating:

“I think all of the proof-of-stake networks are securities and they’re all very risky […] it’s above my pay grade, the regulators will decide whether or not they allow them to continue or nor noth they don’t allow them to continue.”

Saylor’s MicroStrategy has continued to snap up BTC despite the tanking value of the asset in 2022, and as of June 29, the firm held 129,699 BTC worth around $3.98 billion at the time.

Price analysis 7/8: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, SHIB, AVAX

Bitcoin and select major altcoins have risen from their recent lows, signaling an increase in volatility in the near term.

Bitcoin (BTC) rallied to the 200-week moving average on July 8, a level that could act as a battleground between the bulls and the bears. Several analysts are watching this level because a break and close above it could be the first sign that the bear market may be ending.

Bloomberg senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone said that Bitcoin’s 50-week and 100-week moving averages are showing similar signs as made before the 2018 bear market bottom. Therefore, McGlone expects Bitcoin to give a strong rebound in the second half of 2022.

*Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source:* *Coin360*

Another positive sign is that Bitcoin rose above $22,000 on July 8 even as the United States dollar index (DXY) continued its northward march. This suggests that the strong inverse correlation between Bitcoin and the DXY may be starting to weaken.

Could Bitcoin extend its recovery pulling the crypto markets higher? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin broke above the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle and the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($21,233) on July 7, indicating that bulls are making a comeback.

The flattening 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) just below the midpoint suggest that the selling pressure may be reducing.

If the price rebounds off the current level or the breakout level from the triangle, it will suggest that the sentiment has turned positive and traders are buying the dips. That could increase the possibility of a rally to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($25,015) and then to the pattern target at $26,490.

This positive view could invalidate in the short term if the price breaks back below the 20-day EMA and re-enters the triangle. That will indicate aggressive selling by the bears at higher levels. The pair could then drop to the support line of the triangle.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) broke above the 20-day EMA ($1,198) on July 7 and reached the overhead resistance at $1,280 on July 8. The bears are defending this resistance aggressively and are attempting to sink the price back below the 20-day EMA.

If they do that, the ETH/USDT pair could drop to the support line of the ascending triangle. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break and close below it could invalidate the bullish setup. That could pull the price down toward the critical support at $881.

Conversely, if the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA and breaks above $1,280, it will complete the bullish ascending triangle pattern. The pair could then rise to the 50-day SMA ($1,470) and later rally to the pattern target at $1,679.

BNB/USDT

BNB broke and closed above the 20-day EMA ($233) on July 6 but the bulls are struggling to push the price to the 50-day SMA ($262). This suggests that bears are active at higher levels.

The sellers are trying to pull the price back below the 20-day EMA. If they can pull it off, the BNB/USDT pair could slide to the strong support at $211.

On the other hand, if the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment is turning positive and the bulls are buying on dips. The bulls will then attempt to drive the price above the 50-day SMA and gain control. That could clear the path for a possible rally to $300.

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) attempted a break above the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle but the bears had other plans. They aggressively defended the level and are trying to sink the price back below the 20-day EMA ($0.33).

If they succeed, the XRP/USDT pair could extend its stay inside the triangle for some more time. The flattish 20-day EMA and the RSI near the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to buyers or sellers.

A break and close above the triangle could indicate the start of a new up-move. The pair could then rally to the pattern target at $0.48. Alternatively, a break below the triangle could open the doors for a retest at $0.28.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) rose above the 20-day EMA ($0.47) on July 8 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. This indicates that the bears are aggressively defending the moving averages.

The sellers will attempt to build upon their advantage by pulling the price below the strong support at $0.44. If they manage to do that, the ADA/USDT pair could drop to the important level at $0.40. A break and close below this support could indicate the start of the next leg of the downtrend.

To invalidate this bearish view, buyers will have to push and sustain the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.51). If they manage to do that, the pair could rally to $0.60 and then to $0.70.

SOL/USDT

The buyers attempted to push Solana (SOL) above the 50-day SMA ($38.79) on July 5 and 6 but could not overcome the barrier. This suggests that the bears are selling on rallies.

The price is getting squeezed inside a symmetrical triangle. This points to a possible range expansion in the short term. If the price turns down and breaks below the triangle, the SOL/USDT pair could slide toward the critical support at $26.

Conversely, if the price turns up and breaks above the resistance line of the triangle, it will suggest that bulls have the upper hand. The pair could then rally to the psychological level of $50 where the bears may again mount a strong defense.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) attempted a break above the 50-day SMA ($0.07) on July 8 but the bears did not relent. The sellers are trying to use the opportunity to sink the price back below the 20-day EMA ($0.07).

The RSI is near the midpoint and the 20-day EMA has flattened out, suggesting a balance between buyers and sellers. This equilibrium could tilt in favor of the bulls if they push and sustain the price above the 50-day SMA. Such a move could clear the path for a rally to $0.08 and next to $0.09.

Conversely, if the price turns down and breaks below $0.06, the bears will strive to pull the DOT/USDT pair to the vital support at $0.05.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) attempted to break above the overhead resistance at the 20-day EMA ($7.38) on July 7 but the bears held their ground. This indicates that bears are active at higher levels.

The bears will attempt to pull the price toward the critical support at $6.36. This is an important support for the bulls to watch out for because a break and close below it could indicate the resumption of the downtrend. The DOT/USDT pair could then decline to the psychological level of $5.

This negative view could invalidate if the price turns up and rises above the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the pair could attempt a rally to the 50-day SMA ($8.38). This level may again act as a resistance but if bulls clear this hurdle, it may signal a potential change in trend.

SHIB/USDT

The tight range trading in Shiba Inu (SHIB) resolved to the upside on July 7 as the price broke above the immediate resistance at $0.000011. The bears tried to sink the price back below $0.000011 on July 8 but the long tail on the candlestick indicates strong buying on dips.

The buyers will attempt to push the price above the stiff resistance at $0.000012. If they succeed, it will indicate demand at higher levels. The SHIB/USDT pair could then rally to $0.000014 where the bears may again pose a strong challenge.

Conversely, if the price turns down from the current level and sustains below $0.000011, it will suggest that the breakout on July 7 may have been a bull trap. The bears will then try to pull the price back below the critical support at $0.000010. If that happens, the next stop could be $0.000009.

AVAX/USDT

Avalanche (AVAX) has been trading between $13.71 and $21.35 for the past few days, indicating a bottoming formation. The 20-day EMA ($18.78) has flattened out and the RSI is just above the midpoint, indicating a balance between the bulls and the bears.

If buyers drive the price above the overhead resistance at $21.35, it will signal the start of a new up-move. The AVAX/USDT pair could rally to the pattern target of $29 where the bears may again mount a strong resistance. If the price turns down from this level but does not drop below $21.35, it will suggest that a bottom may have been made at $13.71.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the range-bound action may continue for a few more days.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

Ethereum 2.0 stakers face a 36.5% larger loss than ETH spot investors — Report

The Ether losses risk becoming steeper due to unfavorable technical and macroeconomic indicators.

Ethereum investors who staked millions of dollars worth of Ether (ETH) tokens to become validators on its soon-to-launch proof-of-stake (PoS) network are now facing heavy paper losses.

Ether spot traders outperform stakers by 36.5%

In detail, investors have locked a little over 13 million ETH into the so-called Ethereum 2.0 smart contract since it went live in December 2020. However, there is no date when these investors can redeem their tokens alongside the 10% yield.

Interestingly, around 62% of Ether tokens were deposited before the price peaked at around $4,930 in November 2021. Meanwhile, the other 38% were deposited after the record high, according to Glassnode’s latest report.

*Ethereum 2.0 total value staked. Source: Glassnode*

As a result, the total value locked inside the Ethereum 2.0 smart contract peaked at $39.7 billion in November 2021, led by 263,918 network validators. But now, the value has dropped to $14.85 billion as of July 7, despite an additional inflow of 5 million ETH in the last eight months.

Ethereum 2.0 stakers deposited ETH to the network’s PoS contract at an average price of $2,390. So, ETH stakers are now holding an average loss of 55% as a result of ETH’s 75% crash since November 2021, Glassnode noted.

Excerpts from its report:

“If we compare this to the Realized Price for the entire ETH supply, 2.0 stakers are currently shouldering 36.5% larger losses compared to the general Ethereum market.”

*ETH 2.0 total value staked realized price versus market price. Source: Glassnode*

Possible bullish and bearish scenarios

Ether’s bear market has also affected Ethereum 2.0 contract inflows.

Notably, the weekly average of 32 ETH deposits into the Ethereum 2.0 contract has fallen to 122 a day compared to 500 to 1,000 per day in 2021. This suggests investors’ reluctance to lock their ETH holdings away amid a bear market.

*Ethereum 2.0 number of new deposits. Source: Glassnode*

From a technical perspective, investors’ fears seem to be legitimate.

Ether risks undergoing a major breakdown in Q3/2022 since it has been painting a classic continuation pattern called the ascending triangle, as illustrated in the chart below. Therefore, ETH’s price could decline to nearly $800, almost 32% lower than July 7’s price.

*ETH/USD daily price chart featuring ascending triangle setup. Source: TradingView*

Conversely, Ethereum’s switch to PoS is almost near after a successful trial on July 6, as Cointelegraph covered. That could have ETH hold above its interim support of around $1,070, as shown in the chart below.

*ETH/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView*

Coupled with an “oversold” relative strength index (RSI) reading (below 30), ETH could rebound toward its 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) (the blue wave) near $1,600. That would mark a 35%-plus rally from Jul’s price.

A similar setup appears in the ETH/BTC instrument, which tracks Ether’s strength against Bitcoin (BTC). Ethereum’s successful switch to PoS could have ETH hold above 0.057 BTC, followed by a move upside toward 0.06 BTC, according to Fibonacci retracement graph levels shown below.

*ETH/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView*

Meanwhile, macro risks remain the main danger for ETH price; namely, the Federal Reserve’s potential 75 basis point rate hike in July.

Price analysis 7/6: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, SHIB, LEO

Bitcoin and select altcoins are making an attempt at flipping key resistance levels, but negative news-flow and selling from BTC miners could continue to weigh on market sentiment.

Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to rise above the psychological level of $20,000 on July 6, a sign that bulls are trying to stall the brutal bear market. The retail traders are making the most of the current fall and are on a buying spree. Proof of this comes from Glassnode data, showing that wallets holding less than one Bitcoin scooped up 60,460 Bitcoin in June, at “the most aggressive rate in history.”

In a recent report, Glassnode analysts said that the activity on the Bitcoin network shows that “all speculative entities, and market tourists have been completely purged from the asset.” This means that mostly, it is the long-term investors who are left holding Bitcoin.

However, not everyone is bullish about Bitcoin’s prospects in the short term. According to Arcane Research, the ProShares Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITI), the first exchange-traded fund (ETF) to be “short” Bitcoin, has increased its short exposure “by more than 300% last week.”

Could the rush into the first inverse Bitcoin ETF act as a contrarian signal that indicates a possible bottom formation? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin is trading inside a symmetrical triangle pattern. The buyers tried to push the price above the resistance line of the triangle on July 5 but the bears held their ground.

The Doji candlestick pattern on July 5 shows indecision among the buyers and sellers. This uncertainty could tilt in favor of the bulls if the price breaks above the triangle. If that happens, it will suggest that the triangle may have acted as a reversal pattern.

The BTC/USDT pair could then rally toward the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($25,324) and then to the pattern target of $26,490.

This hypothesis could prove to be incorrect if the price turns down from the current level and plummets below the support line of the triangle. That could pull the price to the critical support at $17,622. If this support collapses, the next stop could be $15,000.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) attempted a rally above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($1,186) on July 5 but the bears had other plans. The price action of the past few days has formed an ascending triangle pattern that will complete on a break and close above $1,280.

If buyers push the price above the 20-day EMA, the possibility of a break above $1,280 increases. If that happens, the ETH/USDT pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($1,500) and then to the pattern target of $1,679.

Conversely, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA and breaks below the support line, it will suggest that bears remain in command. That could pull the pair to the crucial support at $881. A break and close below this support could signal the start of the next leg of the downtrend.

BNB/USDT

The bulls pushed BNB above the 20-day EMA ($232) on July 5 but the bears posed a strong challenge at higher levels. A positive sign is that the bulls did not give up much ground and have again propelled the price above the 20-day EMA on July 6.

The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the relative strength index (RSI) is near the midpoint, indicating that bears may be losing their grip.

If buyers sustain the price above the 20-day EMA, the BNB/USDT pair could start its rally to the 50-day SMA ($264). This level may again act as a resistance but if bulls overcome this barrier, it will suggest that the pair may have bottomed out at $183.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the current level or the 50-day SMA, it will indicate that bears continue to sell at higher levels. The bears will then try to pull the price to $211.

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) has been stuck between the 20-day EMA ($0.33) and the support line of the symmetrical triangle pattern. Although the price rebounded off the support line on July 5, the bulls are struggling to clear the overhead resistance at the 20-day EMA.

The 20-day EMA continues to slope down gradually and the RSI is in the negative zone, indicating that bears have the upper hand. The sellers will attempt to sink the price below the support line. If they manage to do that, the XRP/USDT pair could slide to the critical support at $0.28.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price rises off the current level or the support line and breaks above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rally to the resistance line of the triangle. A break and close above this level could signal the start of a rally to $0.48.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) remains sandwiched between the 20-day EMA ($0.47) and $0.44 but this tight range trading is unlikely to continue for long. Usually, tight ranges lead to range expansions.

The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day EMA. That could open the doors for a break above the important resistance at the 50-day SMA ($0.51). If that happens, the ADA/USDT pair could rally to $0.60.

Another possibility is that the price turns down and plummets below $0.44. That will indicate an advantage to bears. The pair could then slide to the critical support at $0.40. If this level gives way, the pair could resume its downtrend.

SOL/USDT

Solana (SOL) climbed above the 20-day EMA ($36) on July 4 but the bulls could not sustain the momentum. The bears pulled the price back below the 20-day EMA on July 5.

The long tail on the July 5 candlestick shows strong buying at lower levels. This increases the likelihood of a break above the moving averages. If that happens, the SOL/USDT pair could rise to $43. A break and close above this level could clear the path for a possible rally to the psychological resistance at $50.

This positive view could be negated in the short term if the price turns down from the current level or the 50-day SMA ($39) and breaks below $30. That could pull the pair down to $26.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) has been oscillating near the 20-day EMA ($0.07) for the past few days. This indicates uncertainty among the buyers and sellers.

The flat 20-day EMA and the RSI just below the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears. A break and close above the 50-day SMA ($0.07) could be the first indication that buyers have the upper hand.

The bullish momentum could pick up on a break above $0.08. The DOGE/USDT pair could then rally toward the psychological level of $0.10.

Another possibility is that the price turns down from the current level and breaks below $0.06. That will indicate advantage to bears and the pair may slide to $0.05.

DOT/USDT

The bulls could not push Polkadot (DOT) above the immediate resistance at $7.30 on July 4. This suggests that the price remains stuck inside the range between $7.30 and $6.36.

The failure of the bears to pull the price down to the support of the range at $6.36 shows that bulls are not waiting for a deeper fall to buy. This increases the possibility of a break above the overhead resistance. If that happens, the DOT/USDT pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($8.48). The bears are likely to defend this level aggressively.

Alternatively, if the price turns down and breaks below $6.36, it will signal the resumption of the downtrend. The pair could then slide to the psychological support at $5.

SHIB/USDT

Shiba Inu (SHIB) broke above the 50-day SMA ($0.000010) on July 5 but the long wick on the candlestick shows that bears are selling at higher levels. A minor positive is that the bulls are not allowing the price to dip back below $0.000010.

Both moving averages have flattened out and the RSI is near the midpoint. This does not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears.

If the price rises and breaks above $0.000011, the SHIB/USDT pair could rally to $0.000012 where the bears may again mount a strong defense. The bulls will have to clear this hurdle to open the doors for a possible rally to $0.000014.

Alternatively, if the price turns down and breaks below $0.000009, it will suggest that the bears are back in control. That could enhance the prospects of a retest of the critical support at $0.000007.

LEO/USD

UNUS SED LEO (LEO) continues to oscillate near the resistance line of the descending channel as both the bulls and the bears try to gain the upper hand.

The price once again rebounded off the 20-day EMA ($5.66) on July 5, indicating that the bulls continue to defend the level aggressively. The bullish momentum could pick up if bulls push and close the LEO/USD pair above $6. If that happens, the pair could rally to $6.50 and then to the pattern target of $6.90.

On the contrary, if the price turns down and closes below the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the bears have overpowered the buyers. That could pull the pair down to the 50-day SMA ($5.33).

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

Price analysis 7/4: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, LEO, SHIB

Bitcoin and altcoins have held their immediate support levels, suggesting the start of a relief rally in the short term.

The crypto markets have remained relatively stable over the weekend and on July 4, which is a holiday for the United States financial markets due to Independence Day. Although Arthur Hayes, former CEO of derivatives platform BitMEX, was expecting a “mega crypto dump” around July 4, it has not materialized.

The drop in Bitcoin’s (BTC) volatility in the past few days has resulted in the squeezing of the Bollinger Band’s width. This indicates a possible increase in volatility in the next few days, according to popular analyst Matthew Hyland.

Meanwhile, crypto investors seem to be waiting for clues from the U.S. equities markets and the U.S. dollar.

Bitcoin’s correlation coefficient with the dollar in the week ending July 3 slumped to 0.77 below zero, the lowest level in seventeen months. The majority of the analysts surveyed by JP Morgan expect the dollar to end at or below the current price levels of about 105. Any weakness in the dollar could be beneficial for Bitcoin.

Could bulls start a recovery in the short term? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

The failure of the bears to extend Bitcoin’s decline below $19,637 suggests a lack of sellers at lower levels. The bulls will now attempt to push the price back above the resistance at $19,637.

If that happens, the BTC/USDT pair could rise to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($21,255). This level could again act as a stiff resistance but if bulls clear this hurdle, the pair may rise to the overhead zone between $22,000 and $23,362.

A break above this zone could open the doors for a possible rally to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($25,710). The bulls will have to overcome this barrier to signal a potential trend change.

On the contrary, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment remains bearish and traders are selling on rallies. That could increase the possibility of a retest of the critical support at $17,622. If this support cracks, the decline could extend to $15,000.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) slipped below the psychological level at $1,000 on June 30 but the bears could not capitalize on this weakness. This suggests that bulls are buying on dips.

The bulls will now try to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($1,192) and gain the upper hand. If they do that, the ETH/USDT pair could rise to $1,280 and then to the 50-day SMA ($1,535). This level could again act as a strong resistance. The bulls will have to propel the price above $1,700 to signal the start of a new up-move.

Conversely, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and bears are selling on rallies. The bears will then try to sink the price below $998 and challenge the critical support at $881.

BNB/USDT

The buyers have successfully defended the support at $211 since June 29, indicating strong demand at lower levels. The bulls are presently attempting to push BNB above the 20-day EMA ($231).

If they succeed, it will suggest that the BNB/USDT pair may have bottomed out at $183. The buyers will then attempt to drive the pair to the 50-day SMA ($266). A break and close above this resistance could signal a potential change in trend.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears are selling on every minor rally. The bears will then again try to sink the price below $211 and gain the upper hand.

XRP/USDT

XRP has been trading inside a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears. The symmetrical triangle usually acts as a continuation pattern but on some occasions, it also behaves as a reversal pattern.

The price has rebounded off the support line of the triangle and the bulls will attempt to push the XRP/USDT pair above the 20-day EMA ($0.33). If they succeed, the pair could rise to the resistance line of the triangle.

A break and close above this level could suggest the start of a new up-move. The pair could then rally to $0.48.

Another possibility is that the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA and breaks below the support line of the triangle. That could pull the pair down to the critical support at $0.28. If this level cracks, the next stop could be $0.23.

ADA/USDT

Although Cardano (ADA) has been trading near the $0.44 level since June 30, the bears have not been able to pull and sustain the price below the support. This suggests that bulls are buying the dips toward $0.44.

The buyers are currently attempting to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.48). If they accomplish this task, the ADA/USDT pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($0.51). This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break and close above it could suggest that the bears may be losing their grip.

Alternatively, if the price turns down from the moving averages, it will suggest that bears are active at higher levels. The sellers will then try to sink the pair below $0.44 and challenge the critical level at $0.40.

SOL/USDT

Solana (SOL) has been trading just below the 20-day EMA ($35) for the past few days but the bears have not been able to capitalize on this weakness. This suggests a lack of sellers at lower levels.

The buyers will now attempt to push the price above the 20-day EMA. If they can pull it off, the SOL/USDT pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($40). A break and close above this resistance could open the doors for a possible rally to the psychological level at $50.

On the other hand, if the price turns down from the moving averages, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on minor rallies. The bears will then try to pull the pair below $30. If they do that, the pair could decline to $27 and then to $25.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) has been clinging to the 20-day EMA ($0.07) for the past few days. This suggests that the bulls are buying the intraday dips as they expect a move higher.

The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the relative strength index (RSI) is near the midpoint, indicating that the selling pressure may be reducing. The bulls will attempt to push the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.07) and challenge the immediate resistance at $0.08. If this level is crossed, the DOGE/USDT pair could rise to $0.10.

On the contrary, if the price turns down from the current level or the 50-day SMA, it will suggest that the bears are defending the moving averages with vigor. The sellers will then try to sink the pair below $0.06 and gain the upper hand.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) has been trading between $7.30 and $6.36 since June 30. This suggests that bulls are buying at lower levels but the bears have not allowed the price to rise above the range.

Although the downsloping 20-day EMA ($7.52) indicates advantage to sellers, the positive divergence on the RSI indicates that the bearish momentum could be weakening. If buyers drive the price above the 20-day EMA, the DOT/USDT pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($8.63).

This bullish view could be invalidated if the price turns down and plummets below the crucial support at $6.36. If that happens, the pair could resume its downtrend toward the next support at $5.

LEO/USD

The bulls and the bears are battling it out for supremacy near the resistance line of the descending channel. UNUS SED LEO (LEO) dipped to the 20-day EMA ($5.65) on July 2 but the bulls successfully defended the level.

The buyers are again attempting to clear the resistance line of the channel. The rising 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive territory indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If the price sustains above $6, the LEO/USD pair could pick up momentum and rally to $6.50. Above this level, the rally could extend to the pattern target at $6.90.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price once again turns down from $6, it will suggest that bears are aggressively defending this level. The bears will then attempt to sink the pair below the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, the pair could slide to the 50-day SMA ($5.30).

SHIB/USDT

Shiba Inu (SHIB) has been trading close to the psychological level at $0.000010. This suggests that the bulls are attempting to form a higher low near this support.

The 20-day EMA ($0.000010) is flat and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. If the price breaks above the 50-day SMA ($0.000010), the SHIB/USDT pair could rally to $0.000012. This level could again act as a stiff barrier but if cleared, the pair could rise to $0.000014.

Conversely, if the price turns down from the moving averages, the bears will try to pull the pair below $0.000009. If they succeed, the pair could retest the critical support at $0.000007.

Bitcoin price spikes to $20K as whale bought BTC confirms support

Bitcoin bounces to five-day highs while Ethereum rises above the $1,100 mark.

Bitcoin (BTC) rose to clip $20,000 for the first time in five days on July 4 as the Independence Day holiday brought some unexpected gains.

*BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart. Source: Tradingview.com*

$20,000 briefly reappears

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD spiking to $20,085 on the day, its best performance since June 30.

The pair had spent most of the holiday weekend at around $19,000, but the absence of Wall Street trading ultimately proved no obstacle for bulls.

Thinner weekend order books likely exacerbated volatility compared to underlying volumes, but nonetheless, Bitcoin was up 3% on the day at the time of writing.

Not going to zero just yet #BTC pic.twitter.com/8KuliZn0QC

— Material Scientist (@Mtrl_Scientist) July 4, 2022

“Bitcoin has successfully created Bullish Divergence on the Daily Time Frame for the first time since breaking below $20,000,” popular analyst Matthew Hyland noted.

On-chain analytics resource Whalemap meanwhile confirmed that whales buying coins at $19,200 had once again provided support for the market.

Yep https://t.co/0SrIWe72OR

— whalemap (@whale_map) July 4, 2022

As Cointelegraph reported, whales had expressed a keen interest in levels immediately below $20,000, conspicuously not choosing to wait until much-vaunted levels at $16,000 and below appeared.

“Flipping $19.5K is a trigger for Bitcoin,” Cointelegraph contributor Michael van de Poppe added.

Altcoins meanwhile made the most of Bitcoin’s spike, with Ether (ETH) rising almost 6% to pass $1,100.

*ETH/USD 1-hour candle chart. Source: Tradingview.com*

Others in the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap broadly saw daily gains of around 5%.

Price analysis 7/1: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, LEO, SHIB

Traders expect Bitcoin to swoop below its swing low before the price flattens out and altcoins begin to recover.

Bitcoin dropped 56.2% in the second quarter of 2022, according to crypto analytics platform Coinglass. That makes it Bitcoin’s worst quarter since the third quarter of 2011 when BTC price fell by 67%. A large part of the damage was done in the month of June when Bitcoin plunged 37%, the worst monthly drawdown since September 2011.

It is not all gloom and doom for crypto investors. On June 29, JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said that the “Net Leverage metric” suggests that crypto’s deleveraging may be on its last legs. The eagerness of crypto companies with stronger balance sheets to bail out crypto firms in distress is also a positive sign.

Another positive view on Bitcoin came from Deutsche Bank analysts. In a recent report, the strategists said that the S&P 500 could recover lost ground and rally to the levels seen in January. This could benefit Bitcoin due to its close correlation with the S&P 500.

Could the downtrend resume or will lower levels attract buyers? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin plummeted below the immediate support at $19,637 on June 30 but the long tail on the candlestick indicates strong buying at lower levels. The bulls tried to build upon the momentum on July 1 and push the price toward the overhead resistance at $22,000 but the long wick on the candlestick shows that bears are active at higher levels.

If the price sustains below $19,637, the likelihood of a retest of the critical support at $17,622 increases. The downsloping moving averages and the relative strength index in the oversold zone indicate that bears are in control.

A break and close below $17,622 could signal the resumption of the downtrend. The next support is at $15,000.

This negative view could invalidate in the short term if the price rises above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($21,907). Such a move could clear the path for a possible rally to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($26,361).

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) dipped below the immediate support of $1,050 on June 30 but the bulls purchased the dip. The buyers tried to extend the recovery on July 1 but the long wick on the candlestick shows that bears are selling on minor rallies.

The bears will try to pull the price below the psychological level of $1,000. If they succeed, the selling could pick up momentum and the ETH/USDT pair could drop to the important support at $881. If this level gives way, the pair could resume the downtrend. The next support is at $681.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price rebounds off the current level or $1,000, the bulls will attempt to push the pair above the 20-day EMA. If they can pull it off, it will suggest that bears may be losing their grip. The bullish momentum could pick up on a break above $1,280.

BNB/USDT

BNB dipped below the strong support at $211 on June 30 but the lower levels attracted strong buying as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick.

The buyers tried to extend the recovery on July 1 but the long wick on the candlestick shows that bears are defending the 20-day EMA ($234) aggressively. The downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the negative territory indicate advantage to sellers.

If the price sustains below $211, the BNB/USDT pair could retest the crucial support at $183. If this support cracks, the downtrend could resume. The next support is at $150.

This negative view could invalidate in the short term if the price turns up and breaks above the 20-day EMA. That could clear the path for a possible rally to the 50-day SMA ($271).

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) attempted a recovery on June 30 but the bulls could not push the price above the overhead resistance at $0.35. This suggests that bears are not willing to let go of their advantage.

The XRP/USDT pair could drop to the strong support at $0.28 where the bulls are likely to mount a strong defense. If the price rebounds off $0.28, it will suggest that bulls continue to buy at lower levels. The bulls will then make one more attempt to push the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.37).

Conversely, if bears sink the price below $0.28, the next leg of the downtrend could begin. The pair could then decline to $0.23.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) bounced off $0.44 on June 30 but the bulls could not clear the 20-day EMA ($0.49) on July 1. This suggests that bears continue to defend the moving averages with vigor.

The downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the negative zone indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside. If the price slips below $0.44, the ADA/USDT pair could drop to the critical support of $0.40.

The bulls are expected to defend this level with all their might because if the support cracks, the pair could resume its downtrend. The next support is at $0.33.

Alternatively, if the price rebounds off $0.44 or $0.40, the buyers will again try to clear the overhead resistance at the moving averages. If they succeed, the pair could start a relief rally toward $0.70.

SOL/USDT

Solana (SOL) dipped below the immediate support at $33 on June 30 but the long tail on the candlestick shows strong buying at lower levels. The buyers tried to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($36) on July 1 but the bears did not relent.

The sellers will try to gain the upper hand by pulling the price below $30. If they manage to do that, the SOL/USDT pair could drop to $27 and later to the crucial support at $25.86. A break and close below this level could signal the resumption of the downtrend.

Another possibility is that the price rebounds off $30. That will indicate accumulation at lower levels. The bulls will then try to clear the overhead hurdle at the moving averages and push the price to $50.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) is witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near the 20-day EMA ($0.07). The RSI is just below the midpoint and the 20-day EMA has flattened out, indicating a minor advantage to sellers.

If the price slips below $0.06, it will suggest that bears are back in the driver’s seat. The sellers will then attempt to sink the DOGE/USDT pair below the important support at $0.05 and resume the downtrend. The next support is at $0.04.

On the contrary, if the price rises from the current level, the buyers will again attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at the 50-day SMA ($0.08). If they succeed, it will suggest that the bears may be losing their grip. The pair could then rally to the strong overhead resistance at $0.10.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) broke and closed below the strong support at $7.30 on June 29. The buyers tried to push the price back above the level on June 30 but failed. This suggests that bears are selling on every minor rally.

The 20-day EMA ($7.74) has started to turn down and the RSI is in the negative territory, indicating that bears are in command. If the price breaks below $6.36, the DOT/USDT pair could start the next leg of the downtrend. The next support is at $5.00.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price rebounds off the current level, the bulls will again attempt to clear the overhead resistance at the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, the pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($8.89).

LEO/USD

UNUS SED LEO (LEO) turned down on June 30 but the bulls did not allow the price to slip back into the descending channel. This indicates that buyers are trying to flip the resistance line into support.

The breakout from the channel indicates the start of a new up-move. The buyers pushed the price to $6.50 on July 1 but the long wick on the candlestick shows that bears are selling on rallies. If bulls sustain the price above $6.00, the LEO/USD pair may again rise to $6.50. If this level is cleared, the rally could extend to the pattern target of $6.90.

To invalidate this bullish view, the bears will have to pull the price below the 20-day EMA ($5.63). If that happens, the pair may drop to the 50-day SMA ($5.27).

SHIB/USDT

Shiba Inu (SHIB) closed below $0.000010 on June 28 but the bears could sustain the lower levels. The bulls bought the dip but are struggling to push the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.000010)

Both moving averages have flattened out and the RSI is just below the midpoint. This suggests a status of equilibrium between the buyers and sellers. If the price breaks below $0.000009, it will suggest an advantage to bears. The SHIB/USDT pair could then decline to the crucial support of $0.000007.

Alternatively, if bulls drive the price above the 50-day SMA, the pair could rise to $0.000012. This level may again act as a resistance but if crossed, the rally may reach $0.000014.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

June gloom takes on a new meaning in another 2022 down month

The addresses mainly run by active human traders have notched more than 147,000 addresses for the first time since November.

The market cap of Bitcoin (BTC) dropped another 33% in June, which is now beginning to numb the Twitter community. On the upside, many crypto traders who wanted out did so fairly aggressively from March to May. But, the less optimistic news is that the stagnancy in address activity may need to change for prices to get a running start on recovery.

Unlike April and May, the altcoin pack didn’t struggle tremendously more than Bitcoin. BTC’s 33% drop was pretty middle of the road in terms of corrections. In a vacuum, crypto bulls would prefer seeing altcoins continuing to lag, pushing more traders back toward Bitcoin as a relative “safe haven.”

Nevertheless, June was a tale of two halves. June 1-15 saw a massive 25% further downswing for Bitcoin. Comparatively, June 16-30 was looking up until the very end of the month, which now exhibits an additional 8% slide.

The $20,000 price level has shown to be both psychological support and resistance area. Therefore, a drop below (which could very well occur by the time this article is published) may quickly change traders’ outlook. Panic selling and overly eager buying should occur as soon as the $19,500 to $19,900 range is hit.

Social dominance has returned to Bitcoin and away from altcoins

So far, 2022 has served as a reality check for altcoins whose market caps have ballooned to astronomic levels in the past two years. As mentioned, Bitcoin was nothing special compared to alts in June, but it has held up better than most projects and even a few stablecoins. As a result, the spotlight shines bright on Bitcoin, as evidenced by a healthy community focus.

This phenomenon was reflected in the whole last week of June. Bitcoin was mentioned on Santiment’s social platforms at its highest rate in about four months, while the discussion around other popular assets like Ether (ETH) and Cardano (ADA) continues to diminish.

Trading returns still point to a major undervaluation of Bitcoin and most altcoins

The average 30-day trading returns on the BTC network are still very negative. And, as long they are in the yellow-green or green territory in the below chart, there is less risk in entering a Bitcoin position (or adding on to) than historical results.

Price freefalls tend to reverse if they go into the extreme low (green) territory, and that would be the ideal setup to watch for on Sanbase.

The number of whale addresses is growing rapidly

Another positive note for patient crypto hodlers, regardless of the asset, is that more and more Bitcoin shark and whale addresses are returning to the network. The addresses, mainly run by active human traders, sized 10 to 10,000 BTC, have over 147,000 addresses for the first time since November. Meanwhile, the very top-tier addresses owned primarily by exchanges (10,000 or more) showed over 100 addresses for the first time since December 2020.

And, speaking of supply moving on and off-exchange addresses, the overall trend shows BTC continuing to move away from exchanges after a brief worrisome rise in May. Now, well below 10% of coins sitting on exchanges, there is far less selloff risk (based on historical trends). And, to add to this, the amount of Tether (USDT) moving to exchanges has skyrocketed, implying more buying power at these suppressed prices.

Ethereum seeing far more negativity than any other large-cap asset

Not to be ignored, Ethereum has had a well-documented 76% retracement since its all-time high in November. When looking at the ratio of positive vs. negative commentary being scraped by our social data algorithm, there appears to be a stunning dropoff in positive comments in early June. The 37% price drop between June 9 and 13 was the culprit and the last straw for many traders. As counterintuitive as it may seem, these “last straws” is what the community at Santiment expects to see for the market to stage a comeback.

Cardano is also seeing the equivalent of slowly rolling tumbleweeds around its network. The number of unique addresses interacting on the Cardano network is down to its lowest in about a year. The sentiment is gradually sinking for Cardano as well, which is likely due to a simple absence of discussion more than anything.

Traders heading into the second half with extreme skepticism

It is hard for the trading community to find any excitement in the abysmal price performances that continue to persist month after month in 2022. Yet, price surges happen when the mainstream casts the most doubts. Still, nothing is for certain in a sentiment-driven and often self-perpetuating sector like cryptocurrency. But, the more the crypto community is leaning bearish and proclaiming its crypto winter time, the higher the chance of a recovery underway.

Cointelegraph’s Market Insights Newsletter shares our knowledge on the fundamentals that move the digital asset market. This analysis was prepared by leading analytics provider Santiment, a market intelligence platform that provides on-chain, social media and development information on 2,000+ cryptocurrencies.

Santiment develops hundreds of tools, strategies and indicators to help users better understand cryptocurrency market behavior and identify data-driven investment opportunities.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in the post are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.