Ethereum

Ethereum traders gauge fakeout risks after 40% ETH price rally

Ether price could drop by 45% because its ascending triangle breakout looks unconvincing so far.

Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) saw a modest pullback on July 17 after ramming into a critical technical resistance confluence.

Merge-led Ethereum price breakout

ETH’s price dropped by 1.8% to $1,328 after struggling to move above two strong resistance levels: the 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) and a descending trendline (black) serving as a price ceiling since May.

*ETH/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

Previously, Ether rallied by over 40% from $1,000 on July 13 to over $1,400 on July 16. The jump appeared partly due to euphoria surrounding “the Merge” slated for September.

Meanwhile, a golden cross’s appearance on Ethereum’s four-hour chart also boosted Ether’s upside sentiment among technical analysts.

#ETH/USD

We got a bullish cross between 200 & 50 moving averages on 4h

Looking for more upside locally pic.twitter.com/WnGY19khnK

— Albert III (@AlbertcryptoN) July 15, 2022

ETH price risks fakeout

Ether’s 40%-plus price rally since July 13 also had its price break above a critical horizontal resistance that somewhat constitutes an “ascending triangle pattern.”

Ascending triangles are typically continuation patterns. But in some cases, ascending triangles can also appear at the end of a downtrend, thus leading to a bullish reversal.

Scott Melker, an independent market analyst, considered ETH’s bullish exit out of its prevailing ascending triangle pattern as a sign that it would rally further. He said:

“A break above $1,284 should send prices flying, as there’s almost no resistance until the $1,700s.”

Ether has already broken above $1,284 and is in a breakout zone. Nonetheless, its close above the ascending triangle’s upper trendline has not accompanied a rise in trading volumes. That suggests a weakening upside momentum, i.e., a fakeout.

Therefore, ETH’s price risks a reversal toward the triangle’s upper trendline near $1,284 as support. The ETH/USD pair could retain its bullish bias if it rebounds from $1,284 with convincing volumes and breaks above the resistance confluence as discussed above.

Conversely, a break below $1,284 would risk re-activating the ascending triangle setup with a bias skewed toward bears. As a result, ETH would risk crashing to $750, according to a rule of technical analysis as illustrated below.

*ETH/USD daily price chart featuring ascending triangle breakdown setup. Source: TradingView*

That means a 45% decline from current price levels.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

ETH traders gauge fakeout risks after 40% ETH price rally

Ether price could drop by 45% because its ascending triangle breakout looks unconvincing so far.

Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) saw a modest pullback on July 17 after ramming into a critical technical resistance confluence.

Merge-led Ethereum price breakout

Previously, Ether rallied by over 40% from $1,000 on July 13 to over $1,400 on July 16. The jump appeared partly due to euphoria surrounding the Merge, slated for September.

Meanwhile, a golden cross’s appearance on Ethereum’s four-hour chart also boosted Ether’s upside sentiment among technical analysts.

#ETH/USD

We got a bullish cross between 200 & 50 moving averages on 4h

Looking for more upside locally pic.twitter.com/WnGY19khnK

— Albert III (@AlbertcryptoN) July 15, 2022

ETH price risks fakeout

Ether’s 40%-plus price rally since July 13 also had its price break above a critical horizontal resistance that somewhat constitutes an ascending triangle pattern.

Ascending triangles are typically continuation patterns. But, in some cases, ascending triangles can also appear at the end of a downtrend, thus leading to a bullish reversal .

Scott Melker, an independent market analyst, considered ETH’s bullish exit out of its prevailing ascending triangle pattern as a sign that it would rally further. He said:

“A break above $1,284 should send prices flying, as there’s almost no resistance until the $1,700s.”

Conversely, a break below $1,284 would risk re-activating the ascending triangle set up with a bias skewed toward bears. As a result, ETH would risk crashing to $750, according to a rule of technical analysis as illustrated below.

That means a 45% decline from current price levels.

Lido DAO most ‘overbought’ since April as LDO price rallies 150% in two weeks — what’s next?

Ethereum 2.0’s tentative launch in September raises LDO’s prospects of holding its gains.

The price of Lido DAO (LDO) dropped heavily a day after its key momentum oscillator crossed into “overbought” territory.

LDO undergoes overbought correction

LDO’s price plunged to as low as $1.04 on July 16 from $1.32 on July 15, amounting to a 20%-plus decline. The token’s sharp downside move took its cues from multiple bearish technical indicators, including its daily relative strength index (RSI) and its 100-day exponential moving average (EMA).

LDO’s latest plunge came after it rallied over 150% in just two weeks, a move that simultaneously pushed its daily RSI above 70 on July 15, thus turning it overbought.

An overbought RSI signals that the rally may be nearing an end while readying for a short-term pullback.

Meanwhile, more downside cues for the Lido DAO token came from its 100-day EMA (the black wave in the chart above) near $1.30, which capped LDO from extending its 150% price rally.

*LDO/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

In its initial stages, the price action looked similar to LDO’s correction in April 2022, after its RSI crossed above 70 for the first time in history. Notably, the Lido DAO token had undergone a 90%-plus price decline to reach $0.39, its record low, by mid-June 2022.

That raises LDO’s potential to repeat the April-June 2022 correction, albeit with no exact bottom in sight. That said, the token’s interim downside target appears near its 50-day EMA (the red wave) at $0.90, down another 20% from today’s price.

On the other hand, a break below the 50-day EMA would risk crashing LDO to around $0.75, which coincides with the 0.618 Fib line of the Fibonacci retracement graph drawn from $0.39-swing low to $1.31-swing high.

Ethereum 2.0 expected in September

On July 15, Ethereum developers confirmed that their network’s much-awaited transition to proof-of-stake from proof-of-work, dubbed “the Merge” or “Ethereum 2.0,” would tentatively occur on September 19.

LDO surged nearly 25% on the day of the announcement due to its close ties to Ethereum.

In particular, LDO serves as a governance token at Lido, a liquid staking platform that has locked over 4.13 million ETH (worth around $5 billion) into Merge’s official smart contract on behalf of its users.

*Ethereum 2.0 total value staked by provider. Source: Glassnode*

Post Ethereum’s announcement, the number of Ether deposited into the Merge smart contracts via Lido increased.

With Lido currently the biggest provider by total value staked, a successful Merge launch could bring more users to Lido, which, in turn, could boost demand for LDO tokens.

Therefore, a technical correction in LDO’s price could follow up with a rebound toward the 100-day EMA if the Ethereum’s plans to become a proof-of-stake chain comes punctually.

Price analysis 7/15: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, SHIB, AVAX

Bitcoin and many altcoins are back at key overhead resistance levels, but will bulls gather enough momentum to produce a sustained breakout?

The recovery in the cryptocurrency markets is being led by Bitcoin (BTC), which has risen above the $21,000 level. However, BlockTrends analyst Caue Oliveira said that on-chain data shows a decline in “whale activity” since the month of May, barring the flurry of activity during the Terra (LUNA) — since renamed Terra Classic (LUNC) — collapse.

A survey conducted in China shows that most participants believe that Bitcoin could fall much further. About 40% of the participants said they would buy Bitcoin if the price dropped to $10,000. Only 8% of the voters showed interest in buying Bitcoin if it drops to $18,000.

*Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source:* *Coin360*

Millionaire investor Kevin O’Leary told Cointelegraph that crypto markets are likely to witness “massive volatility” and enter into a state of “total panic” before entering an accelerated growth phase. He said that companies run by “idiot managers” will face the heat, but that will result in the rise of stronger companies.

Could higher levels continue to witness aggressive selling by the bears? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin slipped below the support line of the symmetrical triangle on July 13, but the bears could not sustain the lower levels. This suggests that the bulls purchased the dip and have pushed the price to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($20,842).

The bulls will have to sustain the price above the 20-day EMA to indicate that the bears may be losing their grip. Above the 20-day EMA, the recovery could extend to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($23,753).

A break and close above this resistance could indicate that the BTC/USDT pair may have bottomed out.

This positive view could invalidate if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below the support line. Such a move could increase the likelihood of a retest of the crucial support zone between $18,626 and $17,622

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) broke below the support line of the ascending triangle pattern on July 12 but the bears could not sustain the lower levels. The price turned up from $1,006 and re-entered the triangle on July 13. This suggests that the break below the triangle may have been a bear trap.

The buyers will try to propel the price above the overhead resistance at $1,280 and the 50-day SMA ($1,358). If they succeed, the ETH/USDT pair could start a rally to its pattern target of $1,679. The bears are expected to pose a strong challenge at the breakdown level of $1,700.

Another possibility is that the price turns down from $1,280. In that case, the pair could again drop to the support line of the triangle. The bears will have to sink the pair below $998 to gain the upper hand.

BNB/USDT

BNB rebounded off the strong support at $211 on July 13, indicating that bulls are buying the dips to this level. The relief rally broke above the 20-day EMA ($233) on July 14 and the bulls will attempt to push the price to the 50-day SMA ($250).

The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the relative strength index (RSI) is in the positive territory, indicating that bulls are on a comeback. A break and close above the 50-day SMA could increase the likelihood that the BNB/USDT pair has bottomed out at $183. That could start a northward march toward $300.

Alternatively, if the price turns down from the 50-day SMA and slips below the 20-day EMA, the pair could drop to $211. That may keep the pair range-bound between $211 and $250 for a few more days. A break and close below $211 could clear the path for a possible retest of the critical support at $183.

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) rebounded off the strong support at $0.30, indicating that bulls are defending the level with vigor. On July 15, the recovery reached the downtrend line, which is acting as a formidable barrier.

If the price breaks and sustains below the 20-day EMA ($0.33), it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. The bears will then make one more attempt to pull the price to the strong support at $0.30.

If this level gives way, the XRP/USDT pair could complete a descending triangle pattern. That could signal the resumption of the downtrend.

Conversely, if the price turns up from the current level and rises above the downtrend line, it will invalidate the descending triangle pattern. The failure of a bearish pattern is usually a bullish sign as it may lead to short covering by the aggressive bears. The pair could then rise to $0.45.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) bounced off the crucial support at $0.40 on July 13 indicating that bulls are attempting to defend the level. The relief rally has reached the 20-day EMA ($0.46), which could act as a stiff resistance.

If the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, the possibility of a break below $0.40 increases. That could start the next leg of the downtrend, which could sink the ADA/USDT pair to $0.33.

On the contrary, if bulls push the price above the moving averages, it will suggest that the downtrend could be weakening. The pair could then rally to $0.54 where the bears may again pose a strong challenge.

SOL/USDT

Solana (SOL) broke below the triangle on July 11 but the bears could not capitalize on this advantage and pull the price below the immediate support at $31. The price turned around from $32 on July 13 and has risen above the moving averages.

The buyers will attempt to push and sustain the price above the resistance line of the triangle. If they succeed, it will suggest that the SOL/USDT pair may have formed a low at $25. The pair could then start an up-move toward $48.

The moving averages are on the verge of completing a bullish crossover and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating that bulls have a slight edge. To invalidate this positive view, the bears will have to pull the price below $31.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) dipped below the immediate support at $0.06 on July 12 but made a strong recovery and climbed back above the level on July 13. This suggests that bulls are buying on dips.

The buyers will now attempt to push the price above the overhead resistance at the moving averages. If they succeed, the DOGE/USDT pair could rally toward $0.08 and then toward $0.09.

On the contrary, if the price turns down from the moving averages, it will suggest that bears remain in control. The sellers will then again attempt to sink the pair to the crucial support at $0.05. A break and close below this level could suggest the start of the next leg of the downtrend.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) dropped below the strong support of $6.36 on July 12 but rebounded off $6 on July 13. This suggests that the bulls are attempting to trap the aggressive bears.

The price has reached the 20-day EMA ($7.02), which could act as a strong resistance. If buyers drive the price above this level, the likelihood of a rally to the 50-day SMA ($7.94) increases. A break above this resistance could suggest that the DOT/USDT pair may have bottomed out.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the bears will make one more attempt to sink the price below $6. If they manage to do that, the pair could start its downward move toward $5.

SHIB/USDT

Shiba Inu (SHIB) dipped below $0.000010 on July 12 but the lower levels attracted strong buying by the bulls. That propelled the price back above the psychological level of $0.000010 on July 13.

The buyers have pushed the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.000010) on July 15, which opens the gates for a possible rise to the overhead resistance at $0.000012. This level could again attract strong selling by the bears.

If the price turns down from $0.000012, the SHIB/USDT pair could again drop toward $0.000010 and remain stuck between these two levels for a few more days.

On the other hand, if bulls drive the price above $0.000012, the pair could rise to $0.000014. The gradually rising 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive territory indicate that bulls have a slight edge.

AVAX/USDT

Avalanche (AVAX) has formed an ascending triangle pattern that will complete on a break and close above the overhead resistance at $21.35.

The 20-day EMA ($18.73) has flattened out and the RSI is at the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. This balance will tilt in favor of the bulls if they push and sustain the price above $21.35. If that happens, the AVAX/USDT pair could rally to the pattern target of $29.

This positive view could invalidate in the short term if the price turns down from the overhead resistance and breaks below the support line. That could invalidate the bullish setup and open the doors for a possible drop to $13.71.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

DeFi for financial services: Alex Tapscott’s ‘Digital Asset Revolution’

Alex Tapscott’s new book breaks down key DeFi concepts for business leaders.

Decentralized finance (DeFi) has massive potential to transform traditional financial services. Data from Emergen Research recently found that the global DeFi platform market size is expected to reach $507 billion by 2028. Moreover, the total value locked within DeFi currently exceeds $75 billion, demonstrating fast-paced growth compared to previous months this year.

Yet, DeFi’s potential may still not be realized by business leaders unfamiliar with the blockchain ecosystem. This notion is highlighted in Alex Tapscott’s recent book, Digital Asset Revolution. Tapscott, co-founder of the Blockchain Research Institute and managing director at Ninepoint Digital Asset Group, told Cointelegraph that he believes digital assets are going to be an important building block for a new internet, along with a financial industry that will change business models and markets. However, Tapscott noted that, to date, very few resources have been available to help enterprise leaders understand the relevance of digital assets. He said:

“Words like nonfungible tokens, central bank digital currencies and stablecoins are alien to people who are not involved in the world of crypto and blockchain. It’s our goal at the Blockchain Research Institute to illuminate the potential behind different digital assets, explaining what these are and why people should care about them in language that is easy to understand.”

How DeFi relates to the financial industry

In order to help readers understand the concepts behind DeFi, the first chapter of Digital Asset Revolution gives a broad overview of how decentralized finance could reinvent financial services. Tapscott begins by briefly summarizing how DeFi relates to nine specific functions of the finance industry: storing value, moving value, lending value, funding and investing, exchanging value, insuring value and managing risk, analyzing value, accounting for and auditing value and authenticating identity.

For example, in regard to storing value, Tapscott mentions that individuals and institutions can use noncustodial wallets like MakerDAO to act as their own banks. In terms of funding and investing, Tapscott notes that aggregators such as Yearn.finance and Rariable could potentially disintermediate investment advisers and robo advisers. Given these different use cases, Tapscott points out that the lines between traditional finance and DeFi will eventually blur as adoption rates grow. Yet, this most likely will not be the case in the immediate future, as skepticism around DeFi still remains.

Chapter one also addresses how a new ecosystem of digital assets is emerging from the growth of DeFi. This is an important aspect of the book, as co-author Don Tapscott told Cointelegraph that business leaders are still very much confused about what crypto represents. In order to clarify this, Digital Asset Revolution describes nine different digital asset classes, focusing on cryptocurrencies, protocol tokens, governance tokens, nonfungible tokens (NFTs), exchange tokens, securities tokens, stablecoins, natural asset tokens and central bank digital currencies (CBDC).

Cover of Digital Asset Revolution. Source: Blockchain Research Institute

While each of these assets is important, readers may be inclined to focus on the digital assets that are gaining momentum today. For example, the book features an entire chapter on stablecoins, demonstrating how these hold the potential to transform legacy payment infrastructures like SWIFT.

Recent: Crypto payments gain ground thanks to centralized payment processors

This does appear to be the case with some stablecoins, like Circle’s USD Coin (USDC). USDC was recently adopted by Banking Circle, a European bank focused on cross-border payments. But, some stablecoins are proving to be controversial. This was displayed following the collapse of the algorithmic stablecoin TerraUSD Classic (USTC) or Luna Classic (LUNC). As such, readers of Digital Asset Revolution should still conduct their own research when looking into different digital asset use cases, especially since the sector is constantly evolving.

CBDCs are another interesting topic mentioned throughout the book. Chapter four is dedicated entirely to CBDCs and features an edited transcript from a webinar hosted by the Blockchain Research Institute with J. Christopher Giancarlo, former chair of the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission and co-founder of the Digital Dollar Project.

In this chapter, Giancarlo explains what a “digital dollar” represents, noting that the concept is very different from stablecoins, which are often tied to another asset of value. Giancarlo remarks that a digital dollar, also known as a CBDC, is a thing of value itself. While a number of concerns remain around CBDCs, Giancarlo also details why privacy is important in order for a digital dollar to be successful:

“At the Digital Dollar Project, we believe that developing the jurisprudence around the U.S. government’s approach to commercial activity using the sovereign currency, if it’s done right, could be a feature of a digital dollar that could be superior to other global reserve currencies.”

The chapter on NFTs may also pique readers’ interest, given the hype surrounding these digital assets. Alan Majer, founder of Good Robot — a company exploring artificial intelligence, robotics, blockchain and the metaverse — contributed to the chapter on NFTs, noting that “NFTs breathe life into digital notions of ownership.”

Given this, the author points out that enterprise leaders must start thinking creatively about tangible and intangible property rights. For example, Majer includes a chart here that displays NFT use cases, one being for intellectual property. The chart states that “NFTs could potentially confer licenses or titles not just of copyrighted works but also trademarks and patents as with 3D printing design files.” Another interesting use case displayed relates directly to DeFi, as NFTs have the potential to expand the range of assets to securitize, customize and derive additional value.

Digital assets aside, interoperability is discussed throughout chapter two of the book. According to Tapscott, interoperability is important for enterprise leaders to understand because this essentially allows different blockchain networks to communicate with one another.

“Smart contract platforms must interoperate seamlessly for DeFi and other new blockchain use cases to reach their full potential,” he writes. Tapscott then points out that smart contracting platforms like Cosmos and Polkadot were developed to address this issue. Anthony Williams, co-founder and president of the Digital Entrepreneurship and Economic Performance Center, elaborates on this throughout the second chapter, explaining how Cosmos and Polkadot allow blockchain networks to transfer value in a trustless and efficient manner.

Challenges of DeFi adoption

While Digital Asset Revolution provides an in-depth overview of how different digital assets associated with DeFi can impact traditional finance, Tapscott is also aware of the challenges associated with adoption. The author mentions these dilemmas at the end of chapter one, noting that DeFi is still in its early days and requires growth.

For instance, he explains that blockchain networks powering DeFi applications still require a lot of energy. While a number of DeFi applications are built on Ethereum, statistics show that Ethereum’s annualized footprint in electricity consumption grew during 2021, exceeding the consumption of countries like Colombia or Czechia.

Tapscott also notes that governments may regulate DeFi, which could hamper growth. Additionally, Don Tapscott mentioned that DeFi may become bigger than the billion-dollar fintech sector, but this would require senior executives and intermediaries like banks to understand the value of decentralized finance. “The challenge of course is that leaders of the old middle are typically last to embrace the new middle,” he said.

Recent: Blockchain-based solutions aim to address US disaster relief

All things considered, though, Tapscott ends his overview in chapter one, suggesting that organizations that fail to implement DeFi aspects will be engulfed by “this hot new industry.” Tapscott added that releasing a book on DeFi during a bear market demonstrates a valuable lesson. He said:

“We are in crypto winter, which is actually the best time to drill down on ideas and get educated. Bull markets are for earning while bear markets are for learning.”

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com.

Polygon rallies 22% on Disney invitation euphoria — will MATIC price gains swell in July?

MATIC still awaits a decisive breakout after the Disney-led intraday rally, with the profit target sitting about 80% higher than current prices.

Polygon (MATIC) reached lofty price levels this July 14, a day after getting selected for the Walt Disney Company’s benchmark business development program.

MATIC’s price surged 22.5% to $0.657 a token, its highest level in a month. In doing so, the token also climbed above its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave), a curvy resistance level that had been capping MATIC’s upside attempts since January 2022.

*MATIC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

Polygon enters the Disney World

MATIC’s move upside appeared synchronous with similar intraday recovery actions witnessed elsewhere in the crypto market.

Nonetheless, Polygon fared better than most of its top-ranking rivals, including the cryptocurrencies Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH).

And at the core of MATIC’s better performance could be the Walt Disney Company.

The multinational mass media and entertainment conglomerate announced six companies that would be joining its 2022 Disney Accelerator to build augmented reality (AR), nonfungible tokens (NFTs) and artificial intelligence (AI) solutions.

Polygon made it to Walt Disney’s list, thus becoming the only blockchain platform to have done so ever. As a result, MATIC, Polygon’s native utility and staking token, rallied better than most of its rival digital assets.

HUGE for $MATIC

Every day feels like another prominent Web 2 platform embracing what’s coming, and Polygon is always involved, especially when it comes to NFTs. Excited to see what they cook up https://t.co/MDNBkivZDd

— N03LVentures (@N03LVentures) July 13, 2022

Key MATIC R/S flip ahead

Polygon now tests a resistance confluence, defined by a support-turned-resistance range of $0.61–$0.67 and a Fibonacci retracement line near $0.63, for a potential breakout in July.

*MATIC/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView*

A decisive move above the confluence could have MATIC pursue a run-up toward the 0.618 Fib line near $1.11, providing the token also closes above its 50-3D (red) and 200-3D (blue) EMAs. That would mean almost an 80% jump from June 14’s price level.

#MATIC IS READY FOR A +80% PUMP.

Bullish Ascending Triangle. $MATIC #CRYPTO #BTC pic.twitter.com/I3g1x98T2u

— TAnalyst (@AurelienOhayon) July 14, 2022

Conversely, a pullback from the confluence would risk crashing MATIC toward the $0.29–$0.35 area, similar to how it retraced downward in June.

MATIC could also erase its recent gains due to higher inflation. Notably, the crypto markets like their traditional finance counterparts have responded negatively to a persistently rising U.S. consumer price index.

*MATIC/USD and NASDAQ weekly correlation coefficient. Source: TradingView*

On July 13, the latest inflation data reached its four-decade high of 9.1%. As a result, investors anticipate the Federal Reserve will raise benchmark rates by a full percentage point, with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic saying that the option “is in play.”

A 1% rate hike in July would risk putting downward pressure on the entire crypto market, including Polygon.

Price analysis 7/13: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, SHIB, LEO

Bitcoin price saw a brief pull-back following July 13’s high inflation print, but the rebound seen in BTC and altcoins suggests that buyers are buying the dip.

The United States Consumer Price Index soared to 9.1% in June, exceeding expectations of an 8.8% rise year-on-year. Currently, the Fed funds futures point to an 81 basis points rate hike for July, suggesting that some participants anticipate a 100 basis points hike.

Several on-chain indicators have been pointing to a likely bottom in Bitcoin (BTC) but the analysts from market intelligence firm Glassnode are not convinced that the low has been made. In “The Week On-Chain” report on July 11, the analysts said that the market may have to fall further “to fully test investor resolve, and enable the market to establish a resilient bottom.”

While the short term remains bearish, strategists are confident about its long-term prospects. CoinShares chief strategy officer Meltem Demirors said on CNBC that Bitcoin may extend its “downward correction” in the near term but it is likely to make a new all-time high “in the next 24 months.”

What are the important levels on Bitcoin and the major altcoins that could arrest the decline? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin dropped back to the support line of the symmetrical triangle on July 12, indicating that the break above the triangle on July 7 may have been a bull trap.

The buyers are trying to defend the level but the long wick on the July 13 candlestick shows that the bears are selling near the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($20,796). Both moving averages are sloping down and the relative strength index (RSI) is in the negative zone, indicating that bears are in command.

If the price breaks below the support line, the BTC/USDT pair could drop to the $18,626 to $17,622 support zone. This is an important zone for the bulls to defend because if it gives way, the pair could decline to $15,000.

The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day EMA. Such a move will suggest strong buying at lower levels. That could increase the possibility of a rally to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA)($24,084).

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) broke below the support line of the ascending triangle pattern on July 12, which invalidated the bullish setup. A minor positive is that the bulls are trying to push the price back into the triangle.

If they manage to do that, it will suggest that the break below the triangle may have been a bear trap. The bulls will then strive to push the price back above the overhead resistance at $1,280. A break and close above the 50-day SMA ($1,383) could enhance the prospects of the start of a new up-move.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the support line, it will suggest that bears have flipped the level into resistance. The sellers will then try to sink the ETH/USDT pair below $998 and challenge the pivotal support at $881. If this support cracks, the pair could start the next leg of the downtrend.

BNB/USDT

The bulls could not capitalize on BNB‘s break above the 20-day EMA ($231). This failure was exploited by the bears who sold aggressively at higher levels and pulled the price back below the 20-day EMA on July 11.

The BNB/USDT pair attempted a rebound off the strong support at $211 on July 13 but the long wick on the candlestick shows that the bears are selling near the 20-day EMA. If the price breaks below $211, the selling could intensify and the pair may slide to the vital support at $183.

Conversely, if the price rebounds off $211 and rises above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest strong demand at lower levels. The buyers will then make another attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at the 50-day SMA ($253).

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) plunged below the support line of the symmetrical triangle on July 11. This indicates that the uncertainty among the bulls and the bears resolved to the downside.

The bulls tried to push the price back into the triangle on July 13 but the long wick on the candlestick suggests that bears are selling on minor intraday rallies. If the price breaks below $0.30, the XRP/USDT pair could drop to the crucial support at $0.28. A break and close below this level could signal the start of the next leg of the downtrend.

The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day EMA ($0.33). Such a move will suggest that the slide below the triangle may have been a bear trap. The pair may signal a potential trend change on a break above the resistance line of the triangle.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) slipped below the immediate support at $0.44 on July 11, indicating that bears are in command. The selling continued and the bears pulled the price to the important support at $0.40.

The buyers attempted to start a recovery on July 13 but the long wick on the day’s candlestick shows that bears are trying to flip the $0.44 level into resistance. If the price breaks below $0.40, the selling could pick up momentum and the ADA/USDT pair could resume the downtrend. The pair could then decline to $0.33.

To invalidate this negative view, buyers will have to push and sustain the price above the moving averages. If that happens, the pair could attempt a rally to $0.60.

SOL/USDT

Solana (SOL) broke below the support line of the symmetrical triangle on July 11 and attempts by the bulls to push the price back into the triangle failed on July 12.

However, the bulls have not given up and are again trying to push the price back into the triangle on July 13. If they succeed, it will suggest that the breakdown on July 11 may have been a bear trap. The buyers will then try to overcome the barrier at the resistance line and start a new up-move toward $50.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance and breaks below $31, the selling could intensify and the SOL/USDT pair could drop to $26.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) slipped below the 20-day EMA ($0.07) on July 10. The bears made use of this opportunity and pulled the price below the strong support at $0.06 on July 12.

If the price sustains below $0.06, the selling could pick up momentum and the DOGE/USDT pair could retest the critical support at $0.05. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break below it could signal the resumption of the downtrend. The pair could then drop to $0.04.

Alternatively, if the price rises from the current level, the buyers will try to push the pair above the moving averages. If they succeed, the pair could rise to $0.08 and next to $0.10.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) broke and closed below the crucial support of $6.36 on July 12, indicating aggressive selling by the bears. A minor positive is that the RSI has maintained the positive divergence, indicating that the bearish momentum may be ending.

The buyers are trying to push the price back above $6.36 and trap the aggressive bears. If that happens, the DOT/USDT pair could rally to the overhead resistance at $7.30. The buyers will have to clear this hurdle and the 50-day SMA ($8.04) to indicate that the downtrend may be over.

Conversely, if the price fails to sustain above $6.36, it will suggest that bears remain in control. The sellers will then try to resume the downtrend and sink the pair to $5.

SHIB/USDT

Shiba Inu (SHIB) dropped below the psychological level at $0.000010 on July 12, indicating strong selling by the bears. A minor positive is that the bulls purchased the dip and are attempting to sustain the price back above $0.000010.

Both moving averages have flattened out and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. In a range, traders generally buy near the support and sell close to the resistance.

If buyers drive the price above the moving averages, the SHIB/USDT pair could attempt a rally to $0.000012. The bulls will have to clear this resistance to open the doors for a possible rally to $0.000014. This view could invalidate on a break below $0.000009.

LEO/USD

The repeated failure of the buyers to sustain UNUS SED LEO (LEO) above $6 suggests a lack of demand at higher levels. That may have attracted selling from the aggressive bears.

The price turned down from $5.91 on July 10 and plunged below the 20-day EMA ($5.60). This was followed by further selling, which pulled the price below the 50-day SMA ($5.42) on July 12. If bears sustain the price below the 50-day SMA, the LEO/USD pair could drop toward the support line of the descending channel.

Conversely, if the price rebounds off the current level, the bulls will make another attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at the resistance line and challenge the crucial level at $6. A break and close above this level could signal the start of a new up-move.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

Ethereum price risks ‘bear flag’ breakdown, 20% drop against Bitcoin

Ethereum funds have been undergoing a modest recovery after witnessing 11 weeks of continuous outflows.

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), is down nearly 40% against Bitcoin (BTC) since December 2021. But, even more pain is possible for the ETH/BTC pair in the coming weeks, based on a classic technical indicator.

Ethereum price risks technical breakdown

The ETH/BTC chart has been forming a bear flag since early June 2022 on the three-day timeframe.

In detail, bear flags are considered bearish continuation patterns that form as the price consolidates higher inside a range defined by two ascending parallel trendlines after a sharp decline. They resolve after the price breaks below the lower trendline, i.e., in the direction of its previous downtrend.

As a rule of technical analysis, a bear flag’s downside target comes to be at a length equal to the size of the previous downside move. Lately, ETH/BTC has been eyeing a similar breakdown, with its profit target sitting around 0.0439, down almost 20% from the price on July 13.

*ETH/BTC three-day price chart featuring “bear flag” pattern. Source: TradingView*

Nonetheless, bear flags have an average success rate of around 67% when it comes to meeting its profit targets, according to Samurai Trading Academy’s study. Additionally, veteran analyst Tom Bulkowski sees the bear flag meeting its target only 46 times out of 100 attempts.

Looks like “actual death”

A separate technical setup shared by analyst Pentoshi shows Ether facing the possibility of falling much lower than the bear flag’s profit target.

Pentoshi suggests that ETH/BTC could dip toward an ascending trendline that has been serving as its support since September 2019 — the level comes near 0.036, down 30% from the price on July 13.

$ETH / $BTC looks like actual death is at the doorstep https://t.co/giJJgUDdzJ pic.twitter.com/NBEzWDx2Ks

— Pentoshi (@Pentosh1) July 12, 2022

Ethereum funds witness modest inflows

The bearish setups for ETH/BTC appear in contrast with a potential recovery across Ether-based investment funds.

In detail, Ether funds amassed $7.6 million in the week ending July 8, according to CoinShares’ latest report.

*Net U.S. dollar flows into/out of crypto-based funds (by asset). Source: CoinShares/Bloomberg*

“The inflows suggest a modest turnaround in sentiment, having endured 11 consecutive weeks of outflows that brought 2022 outflows to a peak of $460 million,” the report notes, adding:

“This improvement in sentiment is may be due to the increasing probability of the Merge, where Ethereum moves from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake, happening later this year.”

Institutional investor sentiment about ETH improves as Merge approaches

Professional investors are warming to Ethereum again as ETH-based funds see a third consecutive week of inflows.

Ether (ETH) prices may have dipped again on Wednesday, but there are signs that professional investors are warming to the asset as the highly anticipated Merge draws closer.

In its digital asset fund flows weekly report, fund manager CoinShares reported that Ether-based products saw inflows for the third consecutive week. There was an inflow of $7.6 million for institutional Ether funds, whereas those for Bitcoin (BTC) continued to outflow with a loss of $1.7 million.

Referring to the Ether funds, CoinShares stated: “The inflows suggest a modest turnaround in sentiment, having endured 11 consecutive weeks of outflows that brought 2022 outflows to a peak of US$460M.” It added that the change in sentiment may be due to the increasing probability of the Merge happening later this year.

The Merge is a highly anticipated Ethereum upgrade that changes its consensus mechanism from proof-of-work (PoW) to proof-of-stake (PoS). It is currently preparing for one final test run, and the Merge proper is expected before October.

In late June, institutional investors started introducing capital back into Ether-based funds during a week that saw record outflows of $423 million, the majority from Bitcoin-based funds.

For the period, there was an overall inflow of $14.6 million but short Bitcoin funds made up $6.3 million, suggesting investors were still bearish on the king of crypto. United States funds and exchanges saw inflows totaling $8.2 million, with 76% of them comprising short positions, a similar percentage to the week ending July 8.

The warming of institutional investors to Ether has not been reflected in the asset’s spot price today. ETH is currently trading down 2.9% over the past 24 hours at $1,047, having lost 28% over the past month, according to CoinGecko.

Crypto Twitter has been busy debating whether Ether should be classed as a security or not, with the specter of tribalism raising its ugly head again. Bitcoin maximalists have sided with MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor who said that ETH was “obviously” a security last week.

However, this has been widely disputed by Ethereum proponents, including co-founder Vitalik Buterin who offered his take on the dispute on Tuesday.

Price analysis 7/11: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, SHIB, AVAX

Bitcoin and select altcoins are discounted and trading close to critical support levels, but will buyers step in?

The United States dollar index (DXY) resumed its strong uptrend on July 11, indicating that investors are preparing for the July 13 CPI report to be hotter than expected. A survey of economists by Bloomberg estimates that in June consumer prices surged to 8.8%, a four-decade high.

Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of derivatives trading platform BitMEX, believes that the U.S. dollar and the euro were moving towards hitting parity. If that happens, the central banks will have to adopt yield curve control, which could lead to the disintegration of the currency and ultimately benefit Bitcoin (BTC).

Glassnode analyst James Check said in an interview with Cointelegraph that the number of Bitcoin holders is higher during the current bear market. This shows the resilience of the Bitcoin network. Another positive is that the smaller investors have used the dip to add to their positions.

Although the short-term picture remains skewed to the downside, the long-term view looks encouraging for bulls. Will Bitcoin and the altcoins attract buying at lower levels? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin turned down from $22,527 on July 8 and broke below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($21,164) on July 10. This suggests that traders who may have bought at lower levels booked profits and the aggressive bears initiated short positions.

The BTC/USDT pair could decline to the support line of the triangle. This is an important level to watch out for because a bounce off it will suggest that the bulls are accumulating near this level. The buyers will then again try to clear the overhead hurdle at the 20-day EMA and push the pair to $23,363.

A break and close above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($24,496) will suggest that the pair may have bottomed out.

Conversely, if the price breaks below the support line, it will indicate that bears are in control. The sellers will then attempt to sink the pair to the strong support zone between $18,626 and $17,622.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) turned down from the overhead resistance at $1,280 on July 8, suggesting that the bears are defending the level aggressively. The sellers pulled the price below the 20-day EMA ($1,192) on July 10 and are attempting to break the support line of the triangle on July 11.

If they manage to do that, the bullish setup will be invalidated. That could sink the ETH/USDT pair to $998. This is an important level to watch out for because a break and close below it could result in a retest of $881.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price rebounds off the support line, it will suggest that the bulls are accumulating on dips. The buyers will have to push and sustain the price above $1,280 to gain the upper hand in the near term. The pair could then rise to the 50-day SMA ($1,422) and later rally to the pattern target at $1,679.

BNB/USDT

BNB failure to rise to the 50-day SMA ($257) may have attracted profit-booking from short-term traders. That has pulled the price below the 20-day EMA ($234).

If the price sustains below the 20-day EMA, the BNB/USDT pair could once again drop to the strong support at $211. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a strong bounce off it will indicate accumulation on dips.

The bulls will then make another attempt to push the price above the 50-day SMA. If they succeed, it will signal that the pair may have bottomed out. This positive view could invalidate if the price breaks below $211.

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) failed to rise above the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle on July 8, indicating that the bears are selling on rallies. Strong selling on July 10 pulled the price to the support line of the triangle.

The relative strength index (RSI) has dropped near 43 indicating that the momentum favors the bears. If sellers sink the price below the support line, the XRP/USDT pair could decline to $0.30 and then retest the critical support at $0.28. If this level cracks, the pair could resume its downtrend.

If the price rebounds off the support line, it will suggest that the bulls continue to buy on dips. The buyers will then make another attempt to push the price above the triangle and gain the upper hand. If that happens, the pair could rise to $0.41.

ADA/USDT

Cardano’s (ADA) failure to sustain above the 20-day EMA ($0.47) suggests that the bears are defending this level aggressively. The sellers have pulled the price to the immediate support at $0.44.

The gradually downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the negative territory suggest that bears have a slight edge. If the sellers pull the price below $0.44, the ADA/USDT pair could retest the crucial support at $0.40. If this level gives way, the selling could intensify and the pair may resume its downtrend.

The bulls are expected to defend the zone between $0.40 and $0.44 with vigor. If the price rebounds off this zone with strength, the buyers will again attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at the moving averages.

SOL/USDT

Solana (SOL) broke below the 20-day EMA ($36) on July 11 and has dropped to the support line of the symmetrical triangle pattern. The price is reaching close to the apex of the triangle, indicating the possibility of a breakout within the next few days.

If the price drops below the support line, it will indicate that the uncertainty has resolved in favor of the bears. The SOL/USDT pair could then drop to $31 and later to the critical support at $26. A break below this support could signal the resumption of the downtrend.

Conversely, if the price rises from the current level, it will suggest that the bulls are attempting to defend the support line. The pair could then rise to the resistance line. The bulls will have to clear this hurdle to start an up-move to $50.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) turned down from the 50-day SMA ($0.07) on July 8 and broke below the 20-day EMA ($0.07) on July 10. The bears are attempting to sink the price below the strong support at $0.06.

If they succeed, the DOGE/USDT pair could slide to the crucial support at $0.05. A break and close below this level could signal the start of the next leg of the downtrend.

Conversely, if the price rebounds off $0.06, it will suggest buying at lower levels. The bulls will then make another attempt to clear the hurdle at the 50-day SMA and push the pair to $0.08. The next trending move could begin on a break above $0.08 or below $0.06. Until then, random range-bound action is likely to continue.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) turned down from $7.30 on July 10 after bulls repeatedly failed to push the price above the resistance. The bears will attempt to sink the price to the strong support at $6.36.

Although the downsloping moving averages indicate advantage to bears, the positive divergence on the RSI suggests that the bearish momentum could be weakening. The longer the price remains stuck between $6.36 and $7.30, the stronger will be the breakout from it.

If bears sink the price below $6.36, the DOT/USDT pair could resume the downtrend. The pair could then drop to $5. Conversely, if the price rises from the current level and breaks above $7.30, the pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($8.20). A break and close above this level could suggest that the downtrend could be over.

SHIB/USDT

Shiba Inu (SHIB) turned down from the overhead resistance at $0.000012 on July 10, indicating that bears are active at higher levels. The sellers will try to pull the price to $0.000010.

If the price rebounds off this level with strength, it will suggest demand at lower levels. The bulls will then again attempt to drive the price above the overhead resistance at $0.000012. If they succeed, the SHIB/USDT pair could rally to $0.000014.

Alternatively, if the price rebounds off $0.000010 but fails to climb above $0.000012, then it will point to a consolidation in the near term. The bears may gain the upper hand if the price slips below $0.000010. The pair could then decline to $0.000009.

AVAX/USDT

Avalanche (AVAX) turned down from the overhead resistance at $21.35 on July 8, indicating that bears continue to defend the level aggressively. The bears are attempting to extend their short-term advantage by pulling the price below the 20-day EMA ($18.83).

If they manage to do that, the AVAX/USDT pair could remain stuck inside the range between $13.71 and $21.35. The flattish 20-day EMA and the RSI near 46 also point to a possible consolidation in the short term.

The first sign of strength will be a break and close above $21.35. Such a move could signal the start of a new up-move. The pair could then rally to $29 where the bears may again mount a strong resistance.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.