Ripple

XRP price rally stalls as SEC vs. Ripple ruling drags on — 25% drop ahead?

XRP nears key breakout, but lackluster volumes may spoil its 30% rally setup.

XRP (XRP) rose 2.1% to $0.52 on April 11, extending its daily gains from $0.50 alongside a broader cryptocurrency market rally, with traders pinning hopes on easing inflation data into April 12.

XRP price: lackluster volumes raise risk of 25% correction

XRP’s upside move brought it closer to breaking out of its prevailing bull pennant range, with a price target of $0.65.

XRP/USD daily candle price chart. Source: Tradingview

However, lackluster volumes accompanying XRP’s gains hinted at a potential price correction in the future. That could mean a short-term pullback toward the pennant’s lower trendline near $0.51 in April or a broader correction altogether invalidating the bullish continuation setup.

The extended sell-off scenario is best visible on the weekly chart below, wherein a key resistance-turned-support line has limited XRP’s upside prospects.

XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

If the fractal plays out again, XRP’s price will risk falling toward its multimonth ascending trendline support near $0.40 by May, down about 25% from current price levels.

SEC vs. Ripple hype cools down

The XRP price has soared by nearly 55% in 2023, primarily due to anticipations that Ripple will win the lawsuit against it by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). That includes its 43% rise in March amid speculations that the ruling will come out by the month’s end.

Related: Ripple, Montenegro sign deal on project for unspecified national digital currency

But it didn’t. Simultaneously, the Google search score for the keyword “SEC vs. Ripple” declined from its March peak of 100 — a perfect score — to 56 in the week ending April 8.

Internet trends for the keyword “SEC vs. Ripple” on a 12-month relative basis. Source: Google Trends

In addition, “XRP” social volumes dropped from their March highs, according to data tracked by Santiment.

XRP social volumes. Source: Santiment

Lastly, XRP remains in lockstep with Bitcoin (BTC) on a daily timeframe. However, as Cointelegraph reported, BTC risks a correction to $25,000 in the near term due to rate hike risks, putting XRP and other altcoins in danger of losses as well.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Ripple, Montenegro sign deal on project for unspecified national digital currency

The deal, teased in January, could create a national digital currency for a country that now uses the euro.

The Central Bank of Montenegro announced on April 11 that it had signed an agreement with Ripple for the development of a strategy and pilot program for a Montenegrin digital currency in the form of a central bank digital currency, or a stablecoin. The country has used the euro as its currency since its introduction in 2002, despite not being part of the Eurozone.

“More details will be revealed later in the year,” RippleX’s vice president for central bank engagements and CBDCs, James Wallis, told Cointelegraph in a written interview. “The project will go through several stages, including identifying the practical application of a digital currency or national stablecoin.”

Wallis indicated that a sandbox stage is planned to put the future digital currency “Into circulation under controlled conditions. […] We’ll work closely with the Central Bank to determine use cases, key success factors, and timelines.” The project will begin this month, he added.

Related: Montenegro makes Vitalik a citizen, part of plans to promote it as a blockchain hub

Central Bank of Montenegro Governor Radoje Žugić said in a statement that the central bank would work with the government and the academic community to “analyse the advantages and risks that CBDCs or national stablecoins could pose with respect to the availability of electronic means of payment, security, efficiency, compliance with regulations, and most importantly the protection of end users’ rights and privacy.” He added:

“As a central bank committed to following modern national banking trends, the Central Bank of Montenegro is actively ensuring it maintains an efficient financial system.”

Montenegrin Prime Minister Dritan Abazovic first disclosed the upcoming deal between Ripple and the Montenegrin Central Bank in a tweet from the World Economic Forum Davos in January.

Ripple has been touting its expansion in the CBDC space for months. Wallis said the company “has multiple CBDC projects ongoing around the world and is in dialogue with dozens of central banks globally.”

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Lawyer lays out his reasoning on why XRP is not a security

Lawyer Jeremy Hogan believes the United States Securites and Exchange Commission has failed to legally demonstrate that XRP is a security.

Ripple’s XRP (XRP) is not a security because it does not fit the definition of an “investment contract,” the “only” legislative definition that it could “possibly” fit, according to Jeremy Hogan, a partner at the law firm of Hogan & Hogan.

In a series of tweets on April 9, Hogan explained that, in his opinion, XRP could only be considered a security under the definition of an “investment contract,” as it doesn’t fit the other definitions of a security such as stocks or bonds.

Hogan argues, however, that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission has not demonstrated an implied or explicit investment contract in its suit against Ripple.

“Instead it argues that the purchase agreement is all that is required — and that is all it proves,” Hogan stated.

“But that argument tears the ‘investment’ from the ‘contract’ as a simple purchase, without more, [there] cannot be an ‘investment contract,’ it is just an investment (like buying an ounce of gold) as there is no obligation for Ripple to do anything except transfer the asset,” he added.

The SEC initiated a lawsuit in December 2020, claiming that Ripple illegally sold its XRP token as an unregistered security.

Ripple has long disputed the claim, arguing that XRP doesn’t constitute an investment contract under the Howey test — a legal test used to determine if a transaction qualifies as an investment contract. The test was established in 1946 by the U.S. Supreme Court in the SEC v. W.J. case.

Hogan further argues that all of the “blue sky” cases, which the Howey case relies on for defining an “investment contract,” involved some form of a contract regarding the investment.

Related: Ripple CEO: XRP lawsuit resolved by June, SEC conduct ‘embarrassing’

“Indeed, how can a person ‘reasonably rely’ on an offeror to make them a profit when they have zero legal recourse when that offeror fails to come through?” he said.

“They cannot. Even the oft-quoted four-part test implies that a ‘contract’ of some sort is required.”

Hogan says the crux of the issue is not whether Ripple used money from the sale of XRP to fund its business, but if the SEC has proven that there was either an implied or explicit “contract” between Ripple and XRP purchasers relating to their “investment.”

“There was no such contract,” Hogan claimed.

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Price analysis 4/7: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, DOGE, MATIC, SOL, DOT, LTC

Bitcoin’s failure to clear the overhead resistance at $30,000 is attracting profit-booking in select altcoins.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading below $29,000 for the past several days. The analyst community remains divided on the near-term prospects of Bitcoin. While some believe that Bitcoin could rise to $30,000, others are of the opinion that a local top has been made.

Bloomberg Intelligence senior macro strategist Mike McGlone said that cryptocurrencies, along with the stock market, crude oil and copper may find it difficult to sustain the recent bounce because bank liquidity levels remain tight.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

On the other hand, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci, while speaking with Yahoo Finance, said that Bitcoin’s bear market may be over, but he added that it was a guess. However, Scaramucci highlighted that Bitcoin has repeatedly outperformed other asset classes over the long term.

Will Bitcoin turn down from the current level, or will bulls regroup and push the price above $30,000? Let’s study the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) has formed a symmetrical triangle near $29,000, which suggests uncertainty among the bulls and the bears about the next directional move.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The upsloping 20-day exponential moving average (EMI) ($27,406) and the relative strength index (RSI) above 58 suggest that bulls have a slight edge. If the price rebounds off the support line, the buyers will attempt to thrust the BTC/USDT pair above the triangle.

If they manage to do that, the pair may start the next leg of the up-move. The pattern target of a breakout from the triangle is $31,280.

Conversely, a break below the support line will tilt the short-term advantage in favor of the bears. The pair may then plummet to the breakout level of $25,250. Buyers are expected to protect the level with all their might.

Ether price analysis

Ether’s (ETH) rally turned down from $1,943 on April 5, indicating that the bears are guarding the psychological level at $2,000 with vigor.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The first support is at $1,857. If this level gives way, the ETH/USDT pair could pull back to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($1,794). This remains the key level for the bulls to defend if they want to keep the up-move intact.

If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, the bulls will again try to overcome the obstacle at $2,000. If they do that, the pair may ascend to $2,200.

On the other hand, if the price breaks below the 20-day EMA, it may tempt short-term traders to book profits. The pair may then tumble to $1,743 and later to $1,680.

BNB price analysis

BNB (BNB) is turning down from the 20-day EMA ($314), indicating that the bears are fiercely defending the level.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The gradually downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI just below the midpoint signal a minor advantage to the bears. If the $306 support cracks, the BNB/USDT pair could slide to $300 and then to the 200-day SMA ($291).

If bulls want to prevent the downward move, they will have to drive the price above the immediate resistance at $318. That could open the gates for a rise to the overhead resistance zone between $338 and $346.

XRP price analysis

XRP (XRP) has stayed above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.49 for the past few days, indicating that the bulls are buying on shallow dips.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The upsloping 20-day EMA ($0.47) and the RSI in the positive territory indicate that bulls have the upper hand. Buyers will next try to propel the price to the overhead resistance zone of $0.56 to $0.58. A close above this zone will signal the start of the next leg of the recovery.

Contrarily, if the price fails to break above the overhead zone, it will suggest that bears remain active at higher levels. Sellers will then try to tug the price below the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the pair may plunge to $0.43.

Cardano price analysis

The bears did not allow Cardano’s ADA (ADA) to break above the neckline and complete the inverse head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The price has reached the 20-day EMA ($0.37), which is a crucial level for the bulls to defend. If the ADA/USDT pair rebounds off the 20-day EMA, the buyers will make one more attempt to overcome the barrier at the neckline. If they can pull it off, it will suggest the start of a new uptrend.

On the contrary, if the price falls below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the short-term bulls may be booking profits. The pair could then decline to the 200-day SMA ($0.35).

Dogecoin price analysis

Traders used Dogecoin’s (DOGE) rise on April 3 to lighten their positions. This shows that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The sharp pullback in the past four days suggests that the DOGE/USDT pair will continue to trade inside the large range of $0.07 to $0.11 for some more time. The price has reached the moving averages, which may act as a strong support. If the price turns up from the current level, the pair may recover to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.09.

Alternatively, if the price plummets below the moving averages, it will suggest a slight advantage to the bears. The pair may then slump to $0.07.

Polygon price analysis

Polygon’s MATIC (MATIC) has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears.

MATIC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price rebounds off the support line of the triangle, it will suggest that the bulls are protecting this level. That could keep the pair inside the triangle for a while longer. If the price climbs above the 20-day EMA ($1.11), the bulls will again try to propel the MATIC/USDT pair to the resistance line of the triangle.

On the downside, a break and close below the support line of the triangle will indicate that the bears have overpowered the bulls. That could open the doors for a potential drop to the 200-day SMA ($0.98).

Related: XRP price eyes 30% upside after key resistance area breaks

Solana price analysis

Buyers could not sustain Solana’s SOL (SOL) above the 20-day EMA ($20.81) in the past few days, indicating that demand dries up at higher levels.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA is flattish, and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating that the SOL/USDT pair may stay between the downtrend line and $18.70 for some time. A break below $18.70 will indicate that bears have come out on top. The pair may then extend its decline to the vital support at $15.28.

Conversely, if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the downtrend line, it will suggest that the bulls are back in the game. The pair may then ascend to $27.12.

Polkadot price analysis

Polkadot’s DOT (DOT) has slipped below the 20-day EMA ($6.22), indicating that the bulls are losing their grip. The price could slide to the strong support at $5.70.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price rebounds off $5.70, the DOT/USDT pair may attempt a rally to the downtrend line and oscillate between these two levels for some time. A rally above the downtrend line will clear the path for a possible rally to the neckline of the developing inverse H&S pattern.

Alternatively, if the price breaks below $5.70, the advantage will tilt in favor of the sellers. The pair may then slump to $5.15. This is an important level to keep an eye on because if it cracks, the pair may tumble to $4.50.

Litecoin price analysis

The failure of the bulls to push Litecoin (LTC) above $96 has emboldened the bears who are trying to strengthen their position by dragging the price below the 20-day SMA ($90).

LTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If they succeed, the next stop could be $85. This is an important level to watch out for because a break and close below it may result in a retest of the 200-day SMA ($75).

Another possibility is that the price turns up from the current level but fails to cross $85. In that case, the LTC/USDT pair may stay range-bound between $85 and $96 for a few days.

The 20-day EMA is sloping up gradually, but the RSI has dropped near the midpoint, suggesting a consolidation in the near term. Buyers will have to clear the overhead hurdle at $96 to extend the recovery to $106.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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XRP price eyes 30% upside after key resistance area breaks

More gains for XRP price appear likely due to a classic bullish continuation pattern alongside strong whale accumulation.

XRP (XRP) has risen by an impressive 60% in the first quarter of 2023, helped by rising speculation over Ripple’s potential legal win versus the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and broader bullish sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.

The XRP/USD pair now eyes more gains in the second quarter, primarily due to a classic bullish continuation pattern.

XRP price paints bull pennant

In late March, XRP broke above its multimonth ascending trendline resistance, averting a potential 35% correction. The rebound reached $0.58 on March 29, its highest level since May 2022.

Now, XRP has been consolidating sideways in what appears to be a bull pennant. This bullish continuation pattern forms when the price consolidates inside a symmetrical triangle after undergoing a strong rally.

A bull pennant resolves after the price breaks above its upper trendline while accompanying a rise in trading volumes. The pattern’s breakout target is obtained by adding the height of the previous uptrend (flagpole) to the breakout point.

In other words, a bullish target of $0.65 in Q2 for XRP price, up around 30% from current levels. 

XRP/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Conversely, a decisive close below the pennant’s lower trendline risks invalidating the bullish setup and increases XRP’s probability of testing its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) near $0.44 as its next downside target.

Whales scoop up XRP as dollar weakens

The year-to-date gains in XRP price coincide with a rise in whale accumulation, according to data tracked by Santiment.

Related: Why is XRP price up today?

For instance, the supply of XRP held by most whale address cohorts — be it 1,000–10,000 XRP or 100 million–1 billion XRP — has increased alongside its 40% gains in 2023 despite reports of some whales dumping XRP worth around $35 million.

XRP supply distribution among whales. Source: Santiment

Meanwhile, a weakening U.S. dollar has boosted risk-on assets across the board, including Bitcoin (BTC), whose correlation with XRP has largely remained in lockstep on a daily timeframe this year.

XRP/USD and BTC/USD daily correlation coefficient. Source: TradingView

Overall, the bullish scenario for XRP remains dependent on a Ripple win against the SEC in the near term, while a “sell the news” scenario should also not be ruled out. 

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Price analysis 4/5: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, DOGE, MATIC, SOL, DOT, LTC

Bitcoin continues to face resistance near $29,000 and Ether has decided to take charge of the wider crypto markets’ bullish momentum.

Bitcoin (BTC) remains pinned below the psychologically crucial level of $30,000 as cryptocurrency investors search for positive triggers. That has not stopped business intelligence firm MicroStrategy from adding 1,045 Bitcoin to its treasury, which has now swelled to 140,000 Bitcoin.

Even after the sharp recovery from the November 2022 low, monitoring resource Material Indicators believes the current up-move is a bear market rally.

Usually, a bear market rally does not turn around until the last bear has thrown in the towel. This suggests that Bitcoin’s recovery may have some more legs before it turns down to shake out the weaker hands.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

A survey conducted by financial services firm Brown Brothers Harriman shows that institutional investors remain interested in the cryptocurrency space despite the crypto winter. It found that 74% of institutional investors were “extremely/very interested” in adding exposure to exchange-traded-funds with cryptocurrency related exposure.

Will Bitcoin continue its northward march and rise above $30,000? Will that move boost the altcoins higher? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

Bitcoin price analysis

The bulls again tried to drive Bitcoin above $29,000 on April 5, but the long wick on the candlestick shows aggressive selling by the bears at higher levels.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears will try to build upon their advantage by pulling the price below the 20-day exponential moving average ($27,273), which is an important level to watch out for. If this support cracks, several short-term bulls may exit their positions. That could open the gates for a retest of the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders (H&S) pattern at $25,250.

Conversely, if the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bulls continue to defend this level with all their might. That may enhance the prospects of a break above the overhead resistance at $29,185. If that were to occur, the BTC/USDT pair may climb to $30,000 and later to $32,500.

Ether price analysis

Ether (ETH) rebounded off the 20-day EMA ($1,778) on April 3 and broke above the overhead resistance at $1,857. This suggests the start of the next leg of the up-move.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The path is clear for a potential rally to $2,000. This level is likely to act as a strong resistance, but if bulls flip the $1,857 level into support during the next decline, it will suggest that buyers are in command. The ETH/USDT pair could then attempt a rally to $2,200.

Time is running out for the bears. If they want to make a comeback, they will have to halt the rally and pull the price below $1,857. If they manage to do that, the aggressive bulls may get trapped. The pair could first drop to the 20-day EMA and subsequently to $1,680.

BNB price analysis

BNB’s (BNB) fall below the $306 support was aggressively purchased by the bulls, as seen from the long tail on the April 3 candlestick.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls are trying to strengthen their position further by pushing the price above the overhead resistance of $318. If they manage to do that, it will suggest that the corrective phase may be over. The BNB/USDT pair could first rise to $330 and, subsequently, to the strong resistance at $338.

On the contrary, if the price fails to clear the obstacle at $318, it will suggest that the bears are using every minor rally to sell. That may pull the pair down to the 200-day SMA ($291) which is likely to act as a strong support.

XRP price analysis

XRP (XRP) dipped below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.49 on April 3, but the long tail on the candlestick shows solid buying at lower levels.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The price turned up on April 4 and the bulls tried to push the price toward the overhead resistance at $0.56, but the long wick on the April 5 candlestick shows that sellers are offering a formidable challenge to the bulls near $0.53.

If the price continues lower, the bears will again try to sink the price below the 20-day EMA ($0.47). If this level gives way, the XRP/USDT pair may slide to $0.43.

On the other hand, if buyers thrust the price above the $0.56-to-$0.58 overhead zone, the pair may surge to $0.65 and then to $0.80.

Cardano price analysis

Cardano’s (ADA) price is getting squeezed between the 20-day EMA ($0.37) and the neckline of the inverse H&S pattern.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The upsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI above 59 indicate that bulls are in command. A break and close above the neckline will complete the reversal pattern. The ADA/USDT pair could then start a new uptrend that has a pattern target of $0.60.

If bears want to seize control, they will have to pull the price back below the moving averages. If they do that, several short-term bulls may close their positions, resulting in a long liquidation. The pair may then slump to $0.30.

Dogecoin price analysis

Dogecoin (DOGE) bounced off the 20-day EMA ($0.08) on April 3 and skyrocketed above the strong resistance at $0.10.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The long wick on the April 3 and 4 candlestick shows that the bears are trying to defend the $0.10 level with vigor. A minor positive in favor of the buyers is that they have not ceded ground to the bears.

If the price stays above $0.09, the possibility of a rally to $0.11 increases. This is the last major barrier for the bulls because a break above it could open the doors for a potential rally to $0.16.

Alternatively, if the price turns down from $0.11, it will suggest that the bears are active at higher levels. The DOGE/USDT pair may then oscillate inside a large range between $0.11 and $0.07 for a while longer.

Polygon price analysis

Polygon’s (MATIC) tight consolidation near the 20-day EMA ($1.11) resolved to the upside on April 4, but the bulls are struggling to build upon this advantage.

MATIC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears will try to tug the price back below the 20-day EMA and trap the aggressive bulls. If they succeed, the MATIC/USDT pair could decline to $1.05 and, thereafter, to the vital support at the 200-day SMA ($0.98).

Instead, if the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bulls are trying to flip this level into support. There is a minor resistance at $1.17, but if bulls overcome this barrier, the MATIC/USDT pair could ascend to $1.25 and thereafter to $1.30.

Related: Latest Bitcoin price data suggests double top above $200K in 2025

Solana price analysis

Solana (SOL) continues to trade inside a tight range. Usually, periods of low volatility are followed by an increase in volatility.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price breaks and closes above the downtrend line, it will suggest that the bulls have overpowered the bears. That could start a new up-move, which could first rise to $27.12. If this level is scaled, the SOL/USDT pair is likely to pick up momentum and soar toward $39.

Another possibility is that the price turns down from the downtrend line or fails to sustain above it. In that case, the bears will try to sink the price below $18.70 and challenge the critical support near $15.28.

Polkadot price analysis

Polkadot (DOT) has continued to grind higher toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $6.85. This level could see strong selling by the bears.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($6.22) remains an important level to keep an eye on. If the price turns down from $6.85 but rebounds off the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment has turned positive and traders are buying the dips.

That will increase the possibility of a break above $6.85. The DOT/USDT pair may then attempt a rally to the neckline of the inverse H&S pattern. Sellers will have to sink the price below $5.70 to gain the upper hand.

Litecoin price analysis

Litecoin (LTC) jumped off the 20-day EMA ($89) on April 1 and rose above the downtrend line. However, the bulls are facing strong resistance from the bears at higher levels, as seen from the long wick on the April 3 and April 5 candlesticks.

LTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The upsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive territory indicate advantage to buyers. There is a minor resistance at $96, but if that is crossed, the LTC/USDT pair may climb to the stiff overhead resistance at $106.

If bears want to prevent the up-move, they will have to quickly yank the price back below the 20-day EMA. The pair could then drop to $85. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break below it will indicate that the bears are back in the game.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Price analysis 3/31: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, DOGE, MATIC, SOL, DOT, LTC

Signs of easing inflation could push Bitcoin and select altcoins above their respective overhead resistance levels in the short term.

Data from the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showed an uptick of 0.3% in February, lower than the 0.5% increase in January. Economists had projected a rise of 0.4%, and the PCE data suggests that inflation is gradually decreasing

Risky assets rallied in response to the data, and some analysts expect the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates by the end of the year. The FedWatch Tool shows a 33% probability of a 50 basis point cut by December 2023.

The cryptocurrency space is trying to come out of a prolonged bear phase. This has improved sentiment, and analysts are focusing on the long-term prospects of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Citibank stated in its “Money, Tokens and Games” March report that blockchain-based tokenization of real-world assets could soar to between $4 and $5 trillion by 2030. Although the lack of legal and regulatory framework, and the skepticism of industry players may pose a challenge in the short term, the investment bank believes they will be overcome eventually.

Could Bitcoin (BTC) and select altcoins extend their up-move or is it time for the rally to stall? Let’s study the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

Bitcoin price analysis

The bulls propelled Bitcoin above $29,000 on March 30, but the long wick on the candlestick shows that the bears have not yet given up and are selling on rallies.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

When a level proves too difficult to cross, usually, the price retraces back before making the next attempt. In this case, if the price again fails to cross $29,000, the BTC/USDT pair may pull back to the 20-day exponential moving average ($26,707). A strong bounce off this level will suggest that the sentiment remains positive and traders are buying on dips. That will increase the possibility of a break above $29,185.

If buyers succeed in their endeavor, the pair may soar to the $30,000–$32,500 resistance zone. The first sign of weakness will be a fall below the 20-day EMA. Such a move will suggest that the bulls may be booking profits. That may result in a rest of the breakout level of $25,250. Below this level, the pair could slide to the 200-day simple moving average ($20,342).

Ether price analysis

Ether (ETH) faces resistance near $1,857, indicating that bears are trying to protect this level with all their might. A positive sign in favor of the bulls is that they have not ceded ground to the bears.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The rising 20-day EMA ($1,736) and the relative strength index (RSI) in positive territory enhance the prospects of a break above $1,857. If that happens, the ETH/USDT pair may resume its up-move and reach the overhead resistance zone between $2,000 and $2,200.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price trips below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bulls have given up. That could pull the price to the strong support at $1,680. A break below this level could indicate that bears have seized control. The pair may then descend to $1,600 and, after that, to $1,461.

BNB price analysis

BNB’s (BNB) relief rally faces selling in the zone between the 20-day EMA ($316) and the downtrend line, but the bulls are hanging on.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA has flattened out, and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating that the selling pressure may be reducing. The aggressive bears may get trapped if the price rises above the downtrend line. That may result in a short squeeze, which could propel the price to the overhead resistance zone between $338 and $346.

Conversely, if the price turns down from the downtrend line and plummets below $305, it will suggest that bears are back in the driver’s seat. The BNB/USDT pair may then drop to the 200-day SMA ($290).

XRP price analysis

The long wick on XRP’s (XRP) March 29 candlestick shows that the bears are aggressively defending the resistance at $0.56.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The XRP/USDT pair formed an inside-day candlestick pattern on March 30, indicating uncertainty among the bulls and the bears. If the price slips below $0.52, the pair may retest the breakout level of $0.49. This is an important level to watch because a break below it could extend the correction to the 20-day EMA ($0.45).

Another possibility is that the price rises from the current level and breaks above the $0.56 to $0.59 resistance zone. If that happens, the pair may skyrocket to $0.65 and $0.80.

Cardano price analysis

After hesitating for two days, the bulls have pushed Cardano (ADA) above the minor resistance at $0.39. The price has reached the vital resistance at the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders (H&S) pattern.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The rising 20-day EMA ($0.36) and the RSI in the positive territory indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If buyers thrust the price above the neckline, it will complete the reversal setup. The ADA/USDT pair could then surge toward the pattern target of $0.60.

On the other hand, if the price turns down from the neckline, the bears will try to sink the pair to the moving averages. This is a critical level to watch because a slide below it could open the gates for a possible fall to $0.30.

Dogecoin price analysis

Dogecoin (DOGE) has traded near the 20-day EMA ($0.07) for the past few days, indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The flat 20-day EMA and the RSI near the midpoint do not give an advantage either to the bulls or the bears. This uncertainty will clear if the price breaks above the 200-day SMA or plummets below $0.07.

If the price rises above the 200-day SMA, the DOGE/USDT pair could pick up momentum and rally toward the $0.10 to $0.11 resistance zone. The bears are likely to defend this zone with vigor. On the downside, a break below $0.07 could result in a retest of the support near $0.06.

Polygon price analysis

Polygon (MATIC) nudged above the 20-day EMA ($1.12) on March 29 and 30, but the bears held their ground. Sellers will now try to sink the price to the strong support at $1.05.

MATIC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA continues to slope down, indicating an advantage to bears, but the RSI just below the midpoint suggests that the bulls are attempting a comeback. This state of uncertainty may not continue for long.

If the price breaks and sustains above the 20-day EMA, the MATIC/USDT pair may attempt a rally to the overhead resistance of $1.30. On the other hand, if the price tumbles below the 200-day SMA ($0.97), the selling could intensify, and the pair may nosedive to $0.69.

Related: Solana overcomes FTX fiasco — SOL price gains 100% in Q1

Solana price analysis

Buyers pushed Solana (SOL) above the 20-day EMA ($20.88) on March 29, but the bulls could not clear the overhead hurdle at the downtrend line.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA is flat, and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating a state of equilibrium between the buyers and sellers. The SOL/USDT pair may continue to swing between the support at $18.70 and the downtrend line for a while longer.

Usually, when the price gets squeezed between two levels, it is followed by a sharp breakout. If the price breaks below $18.70, the pair could slump to $15.28.

Alternatively, a rally above the downtrend line will signal a potential trend change. The pair may then start its northward march toward $39.

Polkadot price analysis

Polkadot (DOT) broke above the 20-day EMA ($6.13) on March 29, with the bulls thwarting attempts by the bears to pull the price back below the level on March 30.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA has flattened out, and the RSI is just above the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. The DOT/USDT pair could oscillate between $5.70 and $6.70 for a few days.

A break and close above the $6.70 resistance will open the doors for a potential rise to the neckline of the inverse H&S pattern. Contrarily, if the price turns down and slips below $5.70, the pair may decline to $5.15.

Litecoin price analysis

The bulls once again defended the 20-day EMA ($87) on March 30, indicating strong demand for Litecoin (LTC) at lower levels.

LTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Buyers will have to propel the price above $96 to signal that the short-term corrective phase may be over. The LTC/USDT pair will then try to rally to $106, where the bulls will likely encounter strong resistance from the bears.

Alternatively, if the price turns down from the current level or the downtrend line, it will suggest that bears are unwilling to give up. That will increase the prospects of a break below the 20-day EMA. The pair may then slump to $75.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Stellar’s XLM bounces 15% two days after hitting record low versus XRP

XLM price is playing catchup to XRP’s March gains, quickly rising 25% versus the U.S. dollar while the XLM/XRP pair bounces from record lows.

The price of Stellar (XLM) rebounded 15% versus its arch-rival XRP (XRP) two days after the XLM/XRP pair set a record low of 0.181.

Notably, the XLM/XRP pair rose to its intraday high of 0.20 XRP on March 31, coinciding with a decoupling between Stellar and XRP in the U.S. dollar market. For instance, XLM’s price has jumped over 11% since March 29 versus XRP’s 3% decline.

XLM/XRP weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

XLM price eyes 10% gains versus XRP in April

On a broader timeframe, XLM dropped 89% versus its peak of 1.655 XRP in January 2021. Interestingly, the peak formed a month after the United States Securities and Exchange Commission sued Ripple for allegedly selling securities in the form of XRP tokens. 

The SEC vs. Ripple case is now nearing its conclusion, with legal experts favoring a win for Ripple.

Meanwhile, XLM continues its long-term downtrend against XRP, though a rebound in April is on the cards.

On the daily chart, the XLM/XRP’s ongoing recovery started at its multimonth descending trendline resistance, which constitutes a falling channel, as shown below.

XLM/XRP daily price chart. Source: TradingView

The pair now looks toward flipping the 0.198–0.207 XRP resistance range as support to eye a run-up toward 0.22 XRP in April, up 10% from current prices.

XLM looks equally bullish versus the U.S. dollar

The Stellar price rallied more than 25% in March to reach $0.113, its highest level in four months. XLM is now positioned for a potential short-term price correction in the first week of April, followed by a rebound rally to new yearly highs.

At the core of this bullish outlook is a classic technical pattern dubbed cup-and-handle. The pattern forms when the price undergoes a U-shaped recovery, or cup, followed by a consolidation period, i.e., the handle, all under a common resistance level called “neckline.“

Meanwhile, it resolves after the price breaks above the neckline and rises by as much as the distance between the cup’s bottom and neckline.

Notably, XLM has been painting a similar cup-and-handle since November 2022. XLM/USD entered the pattern’s breakout stage during its price boom in March, and is now 20% away from reaching the breakout target near $0.131.

XLM/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Nonetheless, XLM’s daily relative strength index has entered its overbought zone above 70, suggesting a consolidation or correction period in the first week of April. As it happens, XLM’s price risks correcting toward its neckline at around $0.095, down 12% from current price levels.

Related: Why is XRP price up today?

Ideally, traders perceive such corrections as a method to analyze cup-and-handle’s breakout strength. So the breakout scenario will be confirmed when the price bounces from the neckline, accompanied by a rise in trading volumes.

Conversely, if the price closes below the neckline with a rise in volumes, it risks invalidating the cup-and-handle breakout scenario altogether.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Price analysis 3/29: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, DOGE, MATIC, SOL, DOT, LTC

Bitcoin and select altcoins are close to breaking out of their overhead resistance levels, indicating that bulls remain in control of the crypto market.

Bitcoin (BTC) is up about 71% in Q1 2023, which is the first positive quarter after four consecutive quarters of negative returns in 2023, according to data from Coinglass. This shows that the sentiment has turned positive and the bulls are trying to put a bottom in Bitcoin.

When the undercurrent is bullish, negative news results in shallow corrections. That is what happened after the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission slapped a lawsuit against Binance and its CEO, Changpeng Zhao, for trading violations. This news pulled the markets marginally lower but did not start a strong down move.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Another thing that happens in a bullish environment is that cryptocurrencies move up without any specific catalyst. That happened on March 29 when Bitcoin and several major altcoins turned up sharply.

Could Bitcoin and select altcoins start the next leg of the uptrend? And where is the rally likely to face resistance? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

Bitcoin price analysis

In an uptrend, traders typically buy the pullbacks to the 20-day exponential moving average ($26,371). The long tails on the March 27 and 28 candlestick show just that.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The rising 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) above 63 indicate that bulls are in control. The buyers will try to cement their dominance further by thrusting the price above $28,868.

If they succeed, the BTC/USDT pair is likely to soar to $30,000 and then continue the rally to the critical resistance at $32,500. The bears will try to halt the up-move in this zone because a rally above $32,500 could clear the path for a sharp rally to $40,000.

Time is running out for the bears. They will have to first pull the price below the 20-day EMA and then retest the breakout level of $25,250. If this level also fails to hold up, the pair may plummet to the 200-day simple moving average ($20,281).

Ether price analysis

Ether (ETH) bounced off the $1,680 support on March 28, signaling that lower levels are attracting buyers. This keeps the price stuck between $1,680 and $1,857.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The upsloping 20-day EMA ($1,720) and the RSI near 58 suggest that the bulls have the upper hand. If buyers nudge the price above $1,857, the ETH/USDT pair could rally to $2,000 and thereafter make a dash to $2,200.

On the contrary, if sellers want to prevent this bullish move, they will have to quickly yank the price below the $1,680 support. If that happens, the pair could skid to $1,600 and subsequently nosedive to $1,461.

BNB price analysis

BNB (BNB) sank below the 20-day EMA ($316) on March 26 but the bears could not maintain the selling pressure. The bulls purchased the dip and pushed the price above the 20-day EMA on March 29.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Buyers will next try to overcome the obstacle at the downtrend line. If they can pull it off, the BNB/USDT pair may climb to the overhead resistance zone between $338 and $346. The bears are expected to defend this zone with all their might because if it gives way, the pair could soar toward $400.

Contrarily, if the price reverses direction from the current level or the downtrend line, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and bears are selling on rallies. The pair may then collapse to the 200-day SMA ($290).

XRP price analysis

XRP (XRP) picked up momentum on March 27 and broke above the immediate resistance zone of $0.49 to $0.51 on March 28.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls continued their buying spree on March 29 and sent the XRP/USDT pair flying above the crucial resistance at $0.56. If bulls sustain the price above $0.56, it will indicate the start of a new uptrend. The pair may rally to $0.65 and then to $0.80.

The long wick on the March 29 candlestick shows that bears are selling the rally above $0.56. If the price turns down and plunges below $0.49, it will indicate that the current breakout may have been a bull trap. The pair could then fall to $0.43.

Cardano price analysis

Cardano (ADA) broke below the 20-day EMA ($0.35) on March 27 but it proved to be a bear trap. The price turned up and soared above the moving averages on March 28.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls have overcome the immediate resistance at $0.39, clearing the path for a potential rally to the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders (H&S) pattern. If bulls sustain the momentum and thrust the price above the neckline, it will complete the bullish setup. That may start a new up-move which has a pattern target of $0.60.

On the downside, a break and close below $0.33 will be a warning sign that bears are back in the game. That may sink the ADA/USDT pair to the vital support at $0.30.

Dogecoin price analysis

Dogecoin (DOGE) remains stuck between the 200-day SMA ($0.08) and $0.07. This consolidation could act as a launchpad for the next directional move.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

A break and close above the 200-day SMA will be the first sign that the bulls have absorbed the selling. That could attract further buying and catapult the price to the overhead resistance zone between $0.10 and $0.11.

Another possibility is that the price turns down from the 200-day SMA and plunges below the support at $0.07. If that happens, it will suggest that bears have overpowered the bulls. The DOGE/USDT pair could then drop to $0.06.

Polygon price analysis

Polygon (MATIC) rebounded off the strong support at $1.05 on March 28, indicating that the bulls are fiercely protecting this level.

MATIC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls extended the recovery on March 29 by shoving the price above the 20-day EMA ($1.12). If buyers sustain the breakout, it will clear the path for a possible rally to the overhead resistance zone between $1.25 and $1.30.

Conversely, if the price turns down and breaks below the $1.05 support, it will suggest that the bears are selling on relief rallies. The MATIC/USDT pair may then slide to the 200-day SMA ($0.97). This is an important support to keep an eye on because if it cracks, the next stop could be $0.69.

Related: ‘Definitely not bullish’ — 7% Bitcoin price gains fail to convince traders

Solana price analysis

Solana (SOL) has been trading between the downtrend line and the horizontal support of $18.70 for the past few days.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls have been buying the dips to $18.70 but they have failed to propel the price above the downtrend line. This indicates that bears are active at higher levels. This state of uncertainty is unlikely to remain for long.

If buyers force the price above the downtrend line, it will suggest a potential trend change. The SOL/USDT pair could first rise to $27.12 and later attempt a rally to $39. Contrarily, a break below $18.70 could stretch the fall to $15.28.

Polkadot price analysis

Polkadot (DOT) closed below the 200-day SMA ($5.95) on March 27, but the bears could not build upon the advantage and sink the price below $5.70.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls purchased at lower levels and pushed the price back above the 200-day SMA on March 28. Buyers boosted their strength further by kicking the price above the 20-day EMA ($6.11). The DOT/USDT pair could next climb to $6.70. This is an important short-term resistance for the bulls to overcome.

If they succeed in doing that, the pair may attempt a rally to the neckline of the inverse H&S pattern. This positive view will be negated if the price plummets below the $5.70-to-$5.15 support zone.

Litecoin price analysis

Litecoin (LTC) slipped below the 20-day EMA ($87) on March 28, but the long tail on the candlestick shows solid buying at lower levels.

LTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls continued their purchases on March 29 and are trying to push the price above the immediate resistance of $96. If they manage to do that, the LTC/USDT pair could surge to the strong overhead resistance at $106. The rising 20-day EMA and the RSI near 55 indicate a minor advantage to buyers.

If bears want to gain the upper hand, they will have to pull the price below the uptrend line. If that happens, the pair could slump to the strong support at $75.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

XRP price tags 10-month high — Can a 35% pullback be avoided?

A U.S. regulator called Bitcoin, Ether and Litecoin commodities in its court filing against Binance; it did not mention XRP anywhere.

XRP (XRP) outperformed its top-ranking crypto rivals over the past 24 hours while reaching its highest price in 10 months. 

XRP price tags 10-month high

On March 29, XRP’s price surged by nearly 15% to $0.58, its highest level in 10 months, outperforming Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) in the past 24 hours, which rose around 4.5% and 2.75%, respectively.

XRP/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission referred to Bitcoin, Ether and Litecoin (LTC) as “commodities” in its court filing against Binance. While the United States regulatory body didn’t name XRP, many assumed the token would be categorized as a commodity.

Related: Here’s why CFTC suing Binance is a bigger deal than an SEC enforcement

The SEC v. Ripple lawsuit will have likely concluded by the end of March, with legal experts believing Ripple can win. XRP’s price has rallied 45% month-to-date on similar hopes, including the March 29 price rally, supplemented further by investors’ optimistic interpretation of the CFTC court filing.

35% XRP price correction ahead?

XRP’s price rally brought it closer to the breakout target of $0.60. However, the possibility of a big correction after the SEC v. Ripple ruling as a “sell the news” event remains.

Related: Why is XRP price up today?

Technical indicators also show the XRP/USD pair facing the upper trendline of its prevailing rising channel. Thus, a correction toward the lower trendline is now in play, with the downside price target around $0.38 in April, down 35% from current price levels. 

XRP/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

On a broader timeframe, the rising channel appears like a bear flag, a bearish continuation technical indicator.

XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

The completion of the flag pattern could see XRP’s price falling to $0.189 by June, down over 65% from current price levels

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.