Markets

Bitfinex Bitcoin longs hit a record-high, but does that mean BTC has bottomed?

A key derivatives metric used by margin traders has hit a record-high, but there’s plenty of risk and a catch to consider.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been unable to close above $32,000 for the past 28 days, frustrating bulls and pushing the Fear and Greed index to bearish levels below 10. Even with June 6’s small boost, the tech-heavy Nasdaq stock market index is down 24% year-to-date.

Investors who keep a close eye on regulatory development were possibly scared after New York state made clear its intention to regulate the crypto industry, including Bitcoin mining.

On June 2, New York Attorney General Attorney Letitia James issued an investor alert against “risky cryptocurrency investments,” citing the assets’ volatility. According to Cointelegraph, the attorney general is convinced that crypto investments create “more pain than gain” for investors.

The New York State Senate approved a proof-of-work (PoW) mining ban on June 2 and the proposed controversial bill aims to prohibit any new mining operations in the state for the next two years and is now headed for the governor’s desk.

Interestingly, as all of this takes place, Bitcoin derivatives traders have never been so bullish, according to one metric.

Margin traders are extremely bullish

Margin trading allows investors to leverage their positions by borrowing stablecoins and using the proceeds to buy more cryptocurrency. When those savvy traders borrow Bitcoin, they use the coins as collateral for shorts, meaning they are betting on a price decrease.

That is why some analysts monitor the total lending amounts of Bitcoin and stablecoins to gain insight into whether investors are leaning bullish or bearish. Interestingly, Bitfinex margin traders entered their highest ever leverage long (bull) position on June 6.

*Bitfinex BTC margin longs (blue), in BTC contracts. Source: TradingView*

Bitfinex margin traders are known for creating position contracts of 20,000 BTC or higher in a very short time, indicating the participation of whales and large arbitrage desks.

Notice that the longs (bull) indicator vastly increased in mid-May and currently stands at 90,090 BTC contracts, its highest-ever registry. To understand how severe this movement was, one might compare it to the June–July 2021 previous all-time high of 54,500 BTC contracts in longs.

These traders hit the bullseye as their bullish positions peaked right as Bitcoin price bottomed. Over the subsequent months, they could sell those long (bull) contracts at a profit, reducing the number of open long positions (blue line).

Sometimes even whales get it wrong

One might assume that these whales and arbitrage desks trading at Bitfinex margin markets have better timing (or knowledge), and thus it makes sense to follow their steps. However, if we analyze the same metric for 2019 and 2020, a completely different scenario emerges.

There were three hikes in the number of Bitfinex BTC margin longs this time around. The first instance happened between mid-November and mid-December 2019 after the indicator jumped from 25,200 BTC to 47,600 BTC longs. However, over the next month, the Bitcoin price failed to break above $8,300 and these traders closed their positions with minimal gains.

The next wave of BTC longs took place in early-February 2020, but those traders were caught by surprise after the Bitcoin price failed to break $10,500, forcing them to close their margin positions at a considerable loss.

Bitfinex BTC margin longs increased from 22,100 to 35,700 contracts in late-July 2020. The movement coincided with the price rally to $47,000, so the early entrants might have scored some profit, but most of the investors exited their margin longs with no gains.

Clever margin longs might be right 75% the time, but there’s a catch

To put things in perspective, over the previous four instances where BTC margin longs (bulls) significantly increased, investors had one profitable trade, two that were mostly neutral and one considerable loss.

Some might say odds still favor those tracking the indicator, but one must remember that whales and arbitrage desks could easily crash the market when closing their positions. In such cases, those following the strategy might arrive late to the party and come out at a loss.

Will the current Bitfinex margin longs increase result in extreme profits? It might depend on how traditional markets, mainly tech stocks, perform over the next couple of weeks.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Price analysis 6/6: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, AVAX, SHIB

BTC and altcoins flashed green at the weekly open, but overhead resistance levels will continue to pose a challenge in the short-term.

After nine successive weeks of red weekly candles, Bitcoin (BTC) printed a green weekly candle on June 5. Leading into this week, buyers kept up their momentum with a strong weekly open that boosted BTC price to $31,800.

Going forward, traders might keep a close eye on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, which is due on June 10. Depending on the figures, this could keep the volatility elevated as investors digest the report and speculate on the next possible move of the United States Federal Reserve.

*Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source:* *Coin360*

Analysts are divided about the next directional move for Bitcoin. While some believe a bottom has been made, others anticipate another leg down. For analyst Bob Loukas, the price action in the summer could remain uninteresting and he expects the new cycle to begin late in the year.

Could bulls sustain higher levels or will bears sell aggressively and pull the price down? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

After two small range days on June 4 and 5, the range expanded on June 6 and Bitcoin soared above the 20-day exponential moving average (E($30,510). The bulls are attempting to push the price to the overhead resistance at $32,659.

The price action of the past few days has formed an ascending triangle pattern, which will complete on a break and close above $32,659. If that happens, the BTC/USDT pair could start a new up-move. The pattern target of the breakout from the triangle is $38,618.

The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the relative strength index (RSI) is near the midpoint, suggesting that the selling pressure is reducing.

This positive view could invalidate if the price turns down sharply and plunges below the trendline of the triangle. The pair could then drop to the strong support at $28,630 where the bulls may try to arrest the decline. A break and close below this support could tilt the advantage in favor of the bears.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) bounced off $1,737 on June 3, indicating that bulls are attempting to defend the crucial support of $1,700. The buyers are attempting to push the price above the overhead resistance at the 20-day EMA ($1,930) on June 6.

If they succeed, the ETH/USDT pair could pick up momentum and rally to $2,016. Above this level, the pair could reach the stiff overhead resistance at $2,159. The bears are likely to defend this level aggressively. If the price turns down from this resistance, the pair could consolidate between $2,159 and $1,700 for a few more days.

The long wick on the June 6 candlestick suggests that bears continue to defend the 20-day EMA. This indicates that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. The bears will now try to pull the pair below $1,700 and resume the downtrend.

BNB/USDT

BNB has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears. The bulls are attempting to push the price above the resistance line but the bears are not willing to cede ground.

If the price turns down from the overhead resistance, the bears will again try to pull the BNB/USDT pair below the support line. If they manage to do that, the pair could decline to $265 where buying may emerge.

Alternatively, if bulls push and sustain the price above the resistance line, it will suggest that the sellers are losing their grip. The pair could then rally to the breakdown level of $350. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break and close above it could signal that the downtrend may be over.

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) has been trading inside a bearish descending triangle pattern. The bulls are attempting to push the price above the downtrend line but the bears are posing a strong challenge as seen from the long wick on the day’s candlestick.

If bulls propel the price above the downtrend line, it will negate the bearish pattern. That could cause a short squeeze, pushing the XRP/USDT pair to $0.46 and later to the psychological level at $0.50.

Conversely, if the price turns down from the downtrend line, the pair could drop to the $0.38 support. If bears pull the price below $0.38, the descending triangle pattern will complete. The pair could then decline to the important support at $0.33. A break and close below this support could resume the downtrend.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) had been sustaining above the 20-day EMA ($0.56) for the past few days suggesting accumulation by the bulls. Buying picked up on June 6 and the bulls are trying to push the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.66).

If they succeed, the ADA/USDT pair could rally to the breakdown level of $0.74. This level may again act as a major hurdle but if the bulls overcome it, the recovery could pick up momentum. The pair could then rally to $0.90.

The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI is just above the midpoint, suggesting a slight edge to buyers.

This bullish view could invalidate in the short term if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the pair could gradually slide toward the strong support at $0.44.

SOL/USDT

Solana (SOL) plunged below the critical support of $37 on June 4 but a minor positive is that the bulls purchased at lower levels. This may have caught the aggressive bears off-guard, which resulted in a strong recovery as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick.

The RSI has formed a positive divergence, indicating that the bearish momentum may be reducing. The bulls are attempting to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($46). If they succeed, the SOL/USDT pair could rally to $55 and thereafter to $60.

On the contrary, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the trend remains negative and bears are selling on rallies. The bears will then make one more attempt to resume the downtrend by pulling the pair below $35.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) is stuck between the 20-day EMA ($0.08) and $0.08 for the past few days but this tight range trading is unlikely to continue for long.

If buyers push the price above the 20-day EMA, the DOGE/USDT pair could rally toward the psychological resistance at $0.10. This level may again act as a hurdle but if bulls overcome it, the pair could rally to $0.12.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears continue to sell on minor rallies. If bears sink the price below $0.08, the pair could drop to $0.07. A break and close below this support will suggest the resumption of the downtrend.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) has formed a symmetrical triangle, which usually acts as a continuation pattern. The buyers are attempting to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($10) and challenge the resistance line of the triangle.

A break and close above the triangle will be the first indication of a potential trend change. The DOT/USDT pair could rise to $12 and then attempt a rally to the breakdown level of $14. The bears are likely to defend this level aggressively.

Alternatively, if the price turns down from the overhead resistance and breaks below the triangle, it will suggest that bears are in control. The pair could then decline to $8 and later retest the May 12 intraday low of $7.30.

AVAX/USDT

Avalanche (AVAX) bounced off $22.14 on June 4, indicating that bulls are defending the $21.35 support with vigor. The buyers have pushed the price above the downtrend line and are attempting to clear the overhead hurdle at the 20-day EMA ($28).

If they manage to do that, the AVAX/USDT pair could pick up momentum and start its northward journey toward $33 and then $37. Such a move will suggest that the bulls are back in the game.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears remain active at higher levels. The pair could then slide toward $21.35. A break and close below this support could start the next leg of the downtrend.

SHIB/USDT

The buyers have successfully defended the $0.000010 support for the past several days but they have not been able to push Shiba Inu (SHIB) above the 20-day EMA ($0.000012). This suggests that buying dries up at higher levels.

The tight range trading between $0.000010 and the 20-day EMA is unlikely to continue for long. If bears sink the price below $0.000010, the SHIB/USDT pair could retest the May 12 intraday low at $0.000009. A break and close below this level could signal the resumption of the downtrend.

Alternatively, if buyers propel the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rally to the overhead resistance at $0.000014. The bears are expected to mount a strong defense at this level.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, ADA, XLM, XMR, MANA

BTC appears to be in the early stage of a recovery this week, and ADA, XLM, XMR and MANA could follow.

The bears are trying to extend Bitcoin’s (BTC) record of nine consecutive red weekly candles to ten weeks, but the bulls are trying to avert this negative occurrence. Although sentiment remains negative, Arthur Hayes, former CEO of derivatives giant BitMEX, anticipates Bitcoin to bottom out in the range of $25,000 to $27,000.

On-chain data from Glassnode shows that smart money may have started accumulating Bitcoin. The net outflows from major cryptocurrency exchanges reached 23,286 Bitcoin on June 3, the highest since May 14.

*Crypto market data daily view. Source:* *Coin360*

Another positive sign of accumulation is that investment into Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) was strong in May and has only risen further in the first two days of June, according to an Arcane Research report. The ETPs hold 205,000 Bitcoin under management, which is a new record.

Could Bitcoin turn up and start a recovery? If that happens, could select altcoins follow the leader? Let’s study the charts of the top-5 cryptocurrencies that may lead the relief rally.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin plunged below the 20-day exponential moving average ($30,459) on June 1. The bulls attempted to push the price back above the 20-day EMA on June 2 and June 3 but the bears did not relent.

The bears will try to pull the price below the strong support at $28,630. If they manage to do that, the BTC/USDT pair could drop to the vital support at $26,700. The buyers are expected to defend this support zone with all their might because if they fail to do that, the downtrend may resume.

On the upside, the bulls will have to push and sustain the price above $32,659 to suggest that a new uptrend could be starting. The bullish momentum could pick up on a break and close above the 50-day simple moving average ($33,778). The pair could then rally to the pattern target of $36,688 and thereafter to $40,000.

*BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

The 4-hour chart shows that the price action is getting squeezed. Although bulls pushed the price above the 20-EMA, they are facing stiff resistance at the 50-SMA. This suggests that bears are active at higher levels.

A minor positive in favor of the bulls is that they have not allowed the price to break below the support at $29,282.

If the price rises from the current level and breaks above the downtrend line, the bulls will attempt to push the pair to the 200-SMA. Conversely, if the price breaks below $29,282, the next stop could be $28,630.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) broke above the downtrend line on May 31 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels as seen from the long wick on the day’s candlestick.

Although the bears have successfully defended the downtrend line, a minor positive is that the bulls have held the ADA/USDT pair above the 20-day EMA ($0.56). This increases the possibility of a break above the downtrend line.

If that happens, the pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($0.67) where the bears may again pose a strong challenge. A break and close above this level will suggest a potential change in trend. The pair could then rally to the breakdown level of $0.74.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and plummets below $0.53, the bears will try to pull the pair to $0.50 and later to $0.44.

*ADA/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

The 4-hour chart shows that the price has been squeezed between the 200-SMA and the 50-SMA but this tight range trading is unlikely to continue for long. If bulls propel the price above the 200-SMA, the pair could attempt a rally to $0.64. A break and close above this level could open the doors for a possible rally to $0.69.

Conversely, if the price turns down and breaks below $0.53, the selling could pick up momentum. The pair may then decline to $0.50 and later to $0.47.

XLM/USDT

Stellar (XLM) rallied above the 20-day EMA ($0.14) on May 30, which was the first indication that the selling pressure may be reducing. The bears stalled the up-move near the 50-day SMA ($0.15) but they haven’t been able to sink and sustain the price below the 20-day EMA.

This suggests that the bulls are buying the dips to the 20-day EMA. If bulls drive the price above the 50-day SMA, it will suggest the start of a sustained recovery. The XLM/USDT pair could then attempt a rally to $0.18 and later to the 200-day SMA ($0.21).

This positive view will invalidate in the short term if the price turns down and breaks below $0.13. Such a move will suggest that demand dries up at higher levels. That could pull the pair down to $0.12. If this support also gives way, the bears will try to resume the downtrend by sinking the pair below the psychological level of $0.10.

*XLM/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

The 4-hour chart shows the price is trading inside a symmetrical triangle. If bulls push the price above the resistance line of the triangle, the pair could rally to $0.15 and thereafter attempt a rally to the pattern target of $0.17.

Alternatively, if the price turns down from the current level, the bears will try to sink the pair below the support line of the triangle. If they do that, the selling could intensify and the pair may slide to the strong support at $0.13.

XMR/USDT

Monero’s (XMR) failure to rise above the 50-day SMA ($202) may have tempted short-term traders to book profits. That has pulled the price down to the 20-day EMA ($189).

The bulls are attempting to defend the 20-day EMA but the lack of a strong bounce off it suggests weak demand. If the price sustains below the 20-day EMA, the next stop could be the uptrend line. A break and close below this support could pull the price down to $167.

On the contrary, if the price rebounds off the current level, the buyers will attempt to overcome the resistance zone between the 50-day SMA and $210. If they manage to do that, the XMR/USDT pair could extend its rally to $230.

*XMR/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

The pair has been declining inside a descending channel, suggesting a minor advantage to sellers. If bears sink the price below the channel, the negative momentum may pick up and the pair could slide to $167.

Alternatively, if the price rebounds off the support line, the buyers will try to propel the pair above the channel. If they manage to do that, the pair could again attempt a break above the overhead resistance at $210.

MANA/USDT

Decentraland (MANA) has failed to break above the 20-day EMA ($1.06) for the past several days but a minor positive is that the bulls have not given up much ground. This suggests that the bulls are buying on dips as they anticipate a move higher.

If bulls propel the price above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bears are losing their grip. The MANA/USDT pair could then rise to the overhead resistance at $1.36. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break and close above it could signal that a bottom may be in place. The pair could then rally to $1.68.

Conversely, if the price turns down and breaks below $0.90, it will suggest that the bears are in no mood to surrender their advantage. The pair could then retest the crucial support at $0.60. The bears will have to pull the price below this support to indicate the resumption of the downtrend.

*MANA/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

The 4-hour chart shows that the pair has been trading inside a tight range between $0.94 and $1.04. The gradually downsloping 20-EMA and the RSI in the negative territory suggest a slight advantage to sellers. If bears pull the price below $0.94, the pair could drop to $0.90.

On the contrary, if bulls push the price above $1.04, it will suggest that demand exceeds supply. That could open the doors for a possible rally to the stiff overhead resistance at $1.15.

If the price turns down from this level, the pair may oscillate between $0.90 and $1.15 for some more time. A break and close above $1.15 could suggest that buyers have the upper hand.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

5 reasons why Bitcoin could be a better long-term investment than gold

Crypto advocates often refer to Bitcoin as “digital gold,” but how does BTC stack up against gold as a long-term investment?

The emergence of forty-year high inflation readings and the increasingly dire-looking global economy has prompted many financial analysts to recommend investing in gold to protect against volatility and a possible decline in the value of the United States dollar.

For years, crypto traders have referred to Bitcoin (BTC) as “digital gold,” but is it actually a better investment than gold? Let’s take a look at some of the conventional arguments investors cite when praising gold as an investment and why Bitcoin might be an even better long-term option.

Value retention

One of the most common reasons to buy both gold and Bitcoin is that they have a history of holding their value through times of economic uncertainty.

This fact has been well documented, and there’s no denying that gold has offered some of the best wealth protection historically, but it doesn’t always maintain value. The chart below shows that gold traders have also been subject to long bouts of price declines.

For example, a person who bought gold in September of 2011 would have had to wait until July 2020 to get back in the green, and if they continued to hold, they would once again be near even or underwater.

In the history of Bitcoin, it has never taken more than three to four years for its price to regain and surpass its all-time high, suggesting that on a long-term timeline, BTC could be a better store of value.

Could Bitcoin be a better inflation hedge?

Gold has historically been seen as a good hedge against inflation because its price tended to rise alongside increases in the cost of living.

But, a closer look at the chart for gold compared with Bitcoin shows that while gold has seen a modest gain of 21.84% over the past two years, the price of Bitcoin has increased 311%.

*Gold vs. BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView*

In a world where the overall cost of living is rising faster than most people can handle, holding an asset that can outpace the rising inflation actually helps increase wealth rather than maintain it.

While the volatility and price declines in 2022 have been painful, Bitcoin has still provided significantly more upside to investors with a multi-year time horizon.

Bitcoin could mirror gold during geopolitical uncertainty

Often called the “crisis commodity,” gold is well-known to hold its value during times of geopolitical uncertainty as people have been known to invest in gold when world tensions rise.

Gold is called the crisis metal so I’d assume if we enter into a recession again, gold will go up as a commodity

— Scott Hempstead (@scottytrip1) April 22, 2022

Unfortunately for people located in conflict zones or other areas subject to instability, carrying valuable objects is a risky proposition, with people being subject to asset seizures and theft.

Bitcoin offers a more secure option for people in this situation because they can memorize a seed phrase and travel without fear of losing their funds. Once they reach their destination, they can reconstitute their wallet and have access to their wealth.

The digital nature of Bitcoin and the availability of multiple decentralized marketplaces and peer-to-peer exchanges like LocalBitcoins provides a greater opportunity to acquire Bitcoin.

The dollar keeps losing value

The U.S. dollar has been strong in recent months, but that is not always the case. During periods where the dollar’s value falls against other currencies, investors have been known to flock to gold and Bitcoin.

If various countries continue to move away from being U.S. dollar centric in favor of a more multipolar approach, there could be a significant amount of flight out of the dollar but those funds won’t go into weaker currencies.

While gold has been the go-to asset for millennia, it’s not widely used or accepted in our modern digital society and most people in younger generations have never even seen a gold coin in person.

For these cohorts, Bitcoin represents a more familiar option that can integrate into people’s digitally-infused lifestyles, and it doesn’t require extra security or physical storage.

Bitcoin is scare and deflationary

Many investors and financial experts point to scarcity and supply constraints for gold following years of declining production as a reason gold is a good investment.

It can take five to ten years for a new mine to reach production, meaning rapid increases in supply are unlikely and central banks significantly slowed their rate of selling gold in 2008.

That being said, it is estimated that there is still more than 50,000 metric tons of gold in the ground, which miners would happily focus on extracting in the event of a significant price increase.

Gold will never reach the promised land of ‘true scarcity’. The more the price inches up, the more it is mined, thus increasing supply, which then lowers the price. #bitcoin #gold #goldprice

— DeepSee-er (@ErDeepsee) March 7, 2022

On the other hand, Bitcoin has a fixed supply of 21 million BTC that will ever be produced, and its issuance is happening at a known rate. The public nature of the Bitcoin blockchain allows for the location of every Bitcoin to be known and verified.

There’s no way to ever really locate and validate all of the gold stores on this planet, meaning its true supply will never really be known. Because of this, Bitcoin wins the scarcity debate, hands down, and it is the hardest form of money created by humankind to date.

Want more information about trading and investing in crypto markets?

The meaningful shift from Bitcoin maximalism to Bitcoin realism
Bitcoin’s rocky road to becoming a risk-off asset: Analysts investigate
Nouriel Roubini oversees the development of tokenized dollar replacement
Shitcoins are ‘garbage:’ Bitcoin-only brokers on freedom and finance
21Shares launches hybrid Bitcoin and gold ETP to enable inflation hedge

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Total crypto market cap risks a dip below $1 trillion if these 3 metrics don’t improve

Declining demand for Tether, negative futures premiums for altcoins and the lack of inflow to the crypto sector are all signs that a rocky road is ahead.

The total crypto market capitalization has ranged from $1.19 trillion to $1.36 trillion for the past 23 days, which is a relatively tight 13% range. During the same time, Bitcoin’s (BTC) 3.5% and Ether’s (ETH) 1.6% gains for the week are far from encouraging.

To date, the total crypto market is down 43% in just two months, so investors are unlikely to celebrate even if the descending triangle formation breaks to the upside.

*Total crypto market cap, USD billion. Source: TradingView*

Regulation worries continue to weigh investor sentiment, a prime example being Japan’s swift decision to enforce new laws after the Terra USD (UST) — now known as TerraUSD Classic (USTC) — collapse. On June 3, Japan’s parliament passed a bill to limit stablecoin issuing to licensed banks, registered money transfer agents and trust companies.

A few mid-cap altcoins rallied, but overall sentiment was unaffected

The bearish sentiment was clearly reflected in crypto markets as the Fear and Greed Index, a data-driven sentiment gauge, hit 10/100 on June 3. The indicator has been below 20 since May 8, as the total crypto capitalization lost the $1.7 trillion level to reach the lowest level since January 27.

*Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: alternative.me*

Below are the winners and losers from the past seven days. While the two leading cryptocurrencies presented modest gains, a handful of mid-capitalization altcoins rallied 13% or higher.

*Weekly winners and losers among the top 80 coins. Source: Nomics*

Waves rallied 109% after liquidity was brought back to Vires Finance and the Neutrino Protocol USDN stablecoin re-established its $1.00 peg after a $1,000 daily withdrawal limit was imposed on USDT and USDC.

Cardano (ADA) gained 19% as investors expect the “Vasil” hard fork scheduled for June 29 to improve scalability and smart contract functionality, incentivizing deposits to the long-hyped decentralized finance applications on the network.

Stellar (XLM) hiked 18.6% after the remittance giant MoneyGram partnered with the Stellar Development Foundation, launching a service that allows its users to send and convert stablecoins into fiat currencies.

Solana (SOL) lost 8% due to an unexpected block production halt on June 1, requiring validators to coordinate another mainnet restart after four hours of outage. The persistent issue has negatively impacted the network on seven occasions over the past 12 months.

Data points to further price pressure

The OKX Tether (USDT) premium is a good gauge of China-based retail crypto trader demand. It measures the difference between China-based peer-to-peer (P2P) trades and the United States dollar.

Excessive buying demand tends to pressure the indicator above fair value at 100% and during bearish markets, Tether’s market offer is flooded and causes a 4% or higher discount.

*Tether (USDT) peer-to-peer vs. USD/CNY. Source: OKX*

Tether has been trading at a 2% or higher discount in Asian peer-to-peer markets since May 30. However, the indicator showed a modest deterioration as it bottomed at a 4% discount on June 1. This data leaves no doubt that retail traders were caught off-guard as the total crypto capitalization failed to break the $1.3 trillion resistance.

Perpetual contracts, also known as inverse swaps, have an embedded rate that is usually charged every eight hours. Exchanges use this fee to avoid exchange risk imbalances.

A positive funding rate indicates that longs (buyers) demand more leverage. However, the opposite situation occurs when shorts (sellers) require additional leverage, causing the funding rate to turn negative.

*Accumulated perpetual futures funding rate on June 3. Source: Coinglass*

Perpetual contracts reflected mixed sentiment as Bitcoin and Ethereum held a slightly positive (bullish) funding rate, but altcoin rates were opposite. Solana’s negative 0.20% weekly rate equals 0.8% per month, which is not a huge concern for most derivatives traders.

According to derivatives and trading indicators, the market is at risk of seeing more downside. Evidence of this can be seen in the slightly higher demand for bearish positions on altcoins and the evident lack of buying appetite from Asia-based retail markets.

Bulls need to display strength and hold the $1.19 trillion market capitalization support to avoid an increase in leveraged sellers, bearish bets and the subsequent negative price pressure.

5 metrics to monitor before investing in crypto during a bear market

Everyone is a genius during a bull market, but how does one invest during lengthy downtrends? Here are five things to consider before buying into a crypto project.

Cryptocurrency bear markets destroy portfolio value and they have a dangerous tendency to drag on for longer than anyone expects. Fortunately, one of the silver linings of market-wide pullbacks is that it gives investors time to re-focus and spend time researching projects that could thrive when the trend turns bullish again.

Here’s five areas to focus on when deciding whether to invest in a crypto project during a bear market.

Is there a use case?

The cryptocurrency sector has no shortage of flashy promises and gimmicky protocols, but when it comes down to it there are only a handful of projects that have delivered a product that has demand and utility.

When it comes down to determining if a token should continue to be held, one of the main questions to ask is “Why does this project exist?”

If there is not a simple answer to that question or the solutions offered by the protocol don’t really solve a pressing problem, there is a good chance it won’t gain the adoption it needs long term to survive.

Identify a competitive advantage

In the cases where a viable use case is present, it’s important to consider how the protocol compares against other projects that offer solutions to the same problem.

Does it offer a better or simpler solution than its competitors, or is it more of a redundant protocol that doesn’t really bring anything new to the table?

A good example of unnecessary redundancy is the oracle sector of the market, which has seen a handful of protocols launched over the past three years. Despite the growing number of options, the oldest and most widely integrated oracle solution is Chainlink (LINK) and it remains the strongest competitor in the field.

Does the protocol generate revenue, and how?

“If you build it, they will come,” is a cliche expression tossed around in tech circles, but it doesn’t always translate into real-world adoption in the cryptocurrency sector.

Operating a blockchain protocol takes time and money, meaning that only protocols with revenue or sufficient funding will be able to survive a bear market.

Identifying whether a project is profitable and where the revenue comes from can help guide investors who are interested in buying decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens.

*Projects with the highest protocol revenue. Source: Token Terminal*

If a project shows limited activity and revenue, it may be a good time to start evaluating whether it’s undervalued or a investment that should be avoided.

Are there cash reserves?

Every startup is meant to have a war chest, treasury or runway as prior to investing, it’s important to identify whether or not the project has sufficient funds to survive downtrends, especially if providing yield on locked assets is the primary incentive for attracting liquidity.

As mentioned earlier, running a blockchain protocol isn’t cheap, and the majority of the protocols out there might not be liquid enough to survive a lengthy bear market.

Every successful NFT project should bring in a crypto financial manager/treasurer to properly diversify/hedge their war chest, not just keep everything in ETH.

A project needs to know how to take profit too.

— $trawberry Sith (@StrawberrySith) May 10, 2022

Ideally, a DeFi-style project should have a large treasury containing a variety of assets like Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) and more reliable stablecoins like USD Coin (USDC) and Tether (USDT).

Having a well-funded and diversified treasury that can be pulled from during tough times is crucial and as $trawberry Sith suggests, projects need to learn when to take profit, and not leave a majority of the protocol treasury in Ether or the platform’s native token.

Are roadmap deadlines kept and met?

While past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future results, a project’s history of following its roadmap and meeting important deadlines can offer valuable insight into whether it is prepared to endure tough times.

In addition to keeping track of roadmap milestones, sites like CryptoMiso and GitHub can help investors peer behind the curtain to see the frequency of development and developer activity for a protocol.

If a team is displaying little to no signs of activity as roadmap deadlines come and go, it might be time to consider the possibility that a slow rug pull is occurring and that it may be time to get out before further losses are realized.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

3 reasons why Ethereum price is pinned below $2,000

ETH price is meeting strong resistance at the $2,000 level and these trading metrics explain why.

Ether’s (ETH) market structure continues to be bearish despite the failed attempt to break the descending channel resistance at $2,000 on May 31. This three-week-long price formation could mean that an eventual retest of the $1,700 support is underway.

*Ether/USD 4-hour price at Bitstamp. Source: TradingView*

On the non-crypto side, a number of equities-related factors are translating to negative sentiment in the crypto market. This week Microsoft (MSFT) lowered its profit and revenue outlook, citing challenging macroeconomic conditions. The U.S. Federal Reserve signalled in its periodic “Beige Book” that economic activity may have cooled in some parts of the country and the Fed is about to reduce its $9 trillion asset portfolio to combat persistent inflation.

On the bright side, an institutional investor survey published by The Economist magazine showed that 85% of the respondents agreed that open-source cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) or Ether (ETH) are useful as diversifiers in portfolio or treasury accounts.

From the macroeconomic perspective, investors are still risk-averse, which could translate to a reduced appetite for cryptocurrencies.

Ethereum still has a mountain to climb

The Ethereum network’s total value locked (TVL), the total amount of assets deposited to the network, has dropped by 5.5% since Ether began its downtrend three weeks ago.

*Ethereum network total value locked, ETH. Source: Defi Llama*

The network’s TVL peaked at 28.7 billion Ether on May 10 and currently stands at 27.1 million. Decentralized finance (DeFi) deposits were deeply impacted by the USD Terra (UST) — now known as TerraUSD Classic (USTC) — stablecoin collapse on May 10. All things considered, the indicator shows a moderate decrease, which is somewhat expected after such an unprecedented event.

To understand how professional traders are positioned, let’s look at Ether’s futures market data. Quarterly futures are whales and arbitrage desks’ preferred instruments due to their lack of a fluctuating funding rate.

These fixed-month contracts usually trade at a 5% to 12% premium to spot markets, indicating that sellers request more money to withhold settlement longer. This situation is also common in traditional assets such as stocks and commodities.

*Ether futures 3-month annualized premium. Source: Laevitas*

Over the past month, Ether’s futures contracts premium has remained near 3%, which is below the 5% neutral-market threshold. The lack of leverage demand from buyers is evident as the current 2.5% basis indicator remains depressed despite Ether’s 24% negative performance in three weeks.

Fear a global downturn continues to impact crypto prices

Ether’s crash to $1,700 on May 27 drained any leftover bullish sentiment and, more importantly, caused $235 million in leverage long futures contract liquidations. Even though Ether price tested the $2,000 resistance on May 31, there is no evidence of strength from derivatives or DeFi deposits, according to the TVL metric.

As investors’ focus remains on traditional markets and the impacts of global macroeconomic worsening conditions, there is little hope for a sustainable Ether price decoupling to the upside.

Ethereum’s Merge FOMO isn’t priced in, making a spike to $2.6K a possibility

Ethereum’s price action hangs around major swing lows despite the all-important Merge network upgrade. Analysis suggests ETH is discounted below $2,000.

In a May 30 tweet, Ethereum (ETH) core developer Tim Beiko confirmed that the much-anticipated Ropsten testnet trial of the Merge from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake can be expected “around June 8 or so.”

Interestingly, Ether’s price action is relatively unchanged despite the unexpected bullish announcement. There was a +10% spike on May 30, but those gains were given back between May 31 and June 2. It is very likely that the Merge — currently anticipated in August — has yet to be priced in, giving traders and investors a possible early entrant advantage.

It’s essential to monitor on-chain data

From an investing and trading viewpoint, cryptocurrency markets have a distinct disadvantage in comparison with regulated markets and transparency. The stock market is chock full of legally required disclosures. In the stock market, the retail trader can identify how many shares of a stock are short, what institution bought (or sold) a large disclosed amount, what insiders bought or sold and a myriad of other forms of information.

The cryptocurrency markets do not have those kinds of legal requirements. In fact, the public doesn’t know if the Bitcoin (BTC) or Ethereum being bought and sold on an exchange is the real cryptocurrency or a type of internal derivative used to facilitate liquidity. But crypto markets have something better than the stock market and that is on-chain data.

On-chain data allows investors and traders to monitor a blockchain’s network activity. It can answer questions: How many Ether are being sent to an exchange? Are there any large transactions? Are any “whale” wallets bigger or smaller? On-chain data can help determine whether a trader or investor should be bullish or bearish.

On-chain data that measure inflows and outflows are often used to determine a bias of whether a cryptocurrency is bullish or bearish. Inflow measurements are cryptocurrencies entering an exchange from outside wallets and are often perceived as a sign of incoming selling pressure. Outflow measurements are cryptocurrencies exiting an exchange to external wallets and are often perceived as a sign of holding or accumulation.

The number of inflow transactions has stayed relatively flat over the past three months, with a noticeable drop since the middle of May.

Inflow 24h change: -13.50%
Inflow 7-day change: -5.87%
Inflow 30-day change: -8.08%

*Aggregated exchange inflow transaction count. Source: IntoTheBlock*

However, the number of outflow transactions has declined since March. In addition, there was a major outflow spike on May 12, the date of the most recent Ether flash crash, followed by a resumption of a decline in outflows.

Outflow 24h-change: +3.62%
Outflow 7-day change: +8.87%
Outflow 30-day change: -1.56%

*Aggregated exchange outflow transaction count. Source: IntoTheBlock*

It is important to note that since May 29, outflows have increased and inflows have decreased. This could be a bullish signal that big money is accumulating.

Ether price remains at major swing lows and oscillators are at historical lows

The upcoming Merge event is one of the most significant in Ethereum’s history. It is rare to see the world’s second most valuable cryptocurrency remaining at 200-day lows and down more than 60% from its all-time high.

Perhaps the most important and relevant details for Ether are the position of the relative strength index and the composite index.

The weekly relative strength index remains in bull market conditions, but is just above the final oversold level of 40. The current value of 42.15 is the lowest since the week of March 18, 2019.

The composite index, likewise, is at near a historical low. The composite index, developed by Connie Brown, is essentially the RSI with a momentum indicator. It is an unbounded oscillator and can catch divergences that the RSI cannot. The weekly composite index value is the third lowest in Ethereum’s history and the lowest since the week of March 26, 2018.

*ETH/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView*

The extreme oversold readings on the Ether weekly chart, rise in outflows and reduction of inflows can give Ethereum investors and traders a good reason to be bullish in the near term. However, any potential bullish reaction will likely be swift and abrupt, but limited to the 2022 volume point of control at $2,600.

3 key indicators traders use to determine when altcoin season begins

Clever traders frequently use these three indicators to pinpoint when an altcoin season could begin.

It’s widely accepted that the fate of the cryptocurrency market depends largely on the performance of Bitcoin (BTC), which makes times like these for crypto traders who prefer to invest in altcoins.

When BTC price is down, altcoins tend to follow, but as a bottoming process begins, altcoins tend to perk up during Bitcoin’s consolidation phases and this typically leads to a call for an altcoin season. While Bitcoin’s current dip below $30,000 shows that it’s a bit premature to call for an altseason, analysts are still charting a variety of different outcomes that point to an altcoin season. Let’s have a look.

ETH/BTC price action could be an early indicator

Insight into the possibility of an altcoin season using the ETH/BTC chart as an indicator was discussed by analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user PlanDeFi, who posted the following chart comparing the 2016 to 2017 performance of ETH/BTC against the pair’s performance in 2021–2022.

*ETH/BTC in 2016/2017 vs. ETH/BTC in 2021/2022. Source: Twitter*

PlanDeFi said,

“Looks damn similar, right? Accumulation>Breakout>Ascending Channel>Breakout. The market is bigger now — it just takes longer.”

Based on the projection provided, the next altseason could kick off sometime after the start of July and it has the potential to extend through the end of 2022.

A 2017 fractal suggests an altseason is imminent

Further evidence that the market may be approaching an inflection point was provided by El_Crypto_Prof, who posted the following chart looking at the history of the altcoin market capitalization.

El_Crypto_Prof said,

“When it comes to altcoins, I can see the following scenario playing out. There are just too many similarities with the previous cycle. RSI also looks incredible. The next wave up will leave many behind.”

The market is firmly in “Bitcoin Season”

While fractals are pleasing to the eye and give hope to disillusioned traders, most fail to materialize and they are not accurate analysis methods to rely on when trading.

The Altseason Indicator provides a more metrics-based method for predicting when the market is in “Bitcoin season” and “altcoin season.”

*Altseason indicator. Source: Blockchain Center*

According to the chart above, it does not appear as though an altseason is likely to happen anytime soon because the metric is currently providing a readout of 24, while the level needed to signify an altseason is 75.

Based on the past performance of the index, it has taken a minimum of two to three months for it to climb from the area indicating that it is Bitcoin season to the altcoin season level. Current projections, according the the indicator, suggest that an altcoin season might not start until August or September 2022.

$32K Bitcoin price could turn the tides in Friday’s $160M BTC options expiry

BTC price lost the momentum that had pushed it to $32,300 on May 31, but this week’s option expiry could help bulls recapture the key price level.

Twenty-three agonizing days have passed since Bitcoin (BTC) last closed above $32,000 and the 10% rally that took place on May 29 and 30 is currently evaporating as BTC price retraces toward $30,000. The move back to $30,000 simply confirms the strong correlation to traditional assets and in the same period, the S&P 500 also retreated 0.6%.

*Bitcoin/USD 12-hour price at Kraken. Source: TradingView*

Weaker corporate profits could pressure the stock market due to rising inflation and the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, according to Citi strategist Jamie Fahy. As reported by Yahoo! Finance, Citi’s research note to clients stated:

“Essentially, despite concerns regarding recession, earnings per share expectations for 2022/2023 have barely changed.”

In short, the investment bank is expecting worsening macroeconomic conditions to reduce corporate profits, and in turn, cause investors to reprice the stock market lower.

According to Jeremy Grantham, co-founder and chief investment strategist of GMO, “We should be in some sort of recession fairly quickly, and profit margins from a real peak have a long way that they can decline.”

As the correlation to the S&P 500 remains incredibly high, Bitcoin investors fear that the potential stock market decline will inevitably lead to a retest of the $28,000 level.

*S&P 500 and Bitcoin/USD 30-day correlation. Source: TradingView*

The correlation metric ranges from a negative 1, meaning select markets move in opposite directions, to positive 1, which reflects a perfect and symmetrical movement. A disparity or a lack of relationship between the two assets would be represented by 0.

Currently, the S&P 500 and Bitcoin 30-day correlation stands at 0.88, which has been the norm for the past couple of months.

Bearish bets are mostly below $31,000

Bitcoin’s recovery above $31,000 on May 30 took bears by surprise because only 20% of the put (sell) options for June 3 have been placed above such a price level.

Bitcoin bulls may have been fooled by the recent $32,000 resistance test and their bets for the $825 million options expiry go all the way to $50,000.

*Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for June 3. Source: CoinGlass*

A broader view using the 0.77 call-to-put ratio shows more bearish bets because the put (sell) open interest stands at $465 million against the $360 million call (buy) options. Nevertheless, as Bitcoin currently stands above $31,000, most bearish bets will likely become worthless.

If Bitcoin’s price remains above $31,000 at 8:00 am UTC on June 3, only $90 million worth of these put (sell) options will be available. This difference happens because there is no use in a right to sell Bitcoin at $31,000 if it trades above that level on expiry.

Bulls might pocket a $160 million profit

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on June 3 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

Between $29,000 and $30,000: 1,100 calls vs. 5,100 puts. The net result favors bears by $115 million.
Between $30,000 and $32,000: 4,400 calls vs. 4,000 puts. The net result is balanced between call (buy) and put (sell) instruments.
Between $32,000 and $33,000: 6,600 calls vs. 1,600 puts. The net result favors bulls to $160 million.
Between $33,000 and $34,000: 7,600 calls vs. 800 puts. Bulls extend their gains to $225 million.

This crude estimate considers the call options used in bullish bets, and the put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

Bears have less margin required to suppress Bitcoin price

Bitcoin bears need to pressure the price below $30,000 on June 3 to secure a $115 million profit. On the other hand, the bulls’ best case scenario requires a push above $33,000 to increase their gains to $225 million.

However, Bitcoin bears had $289 million leverage short positions liquidated on May 29, according to data from Coinglass. Consequently, they have less margin required to push the price lower in the short term.

With this said, the most probable scenario is a draw, causing Bitcoin price to range near $31,000 ahead of the June 3 options expiry.