Markets

Falling wedge pattern points to eventual Ethereum price reversal, but traders expect more pain first

ETH dropped below a key support in its USD/BTC pair, but analysts say a bullish trading pattern could eventually spark a sharp trend reversal.

The cryptocurrency market was hit with another round of selling on May 26 as Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped to $28,000 and Ether (ETH) briefly fell under $1,800. The ETH/BTC pair also dropped below what traders deem to be an important ascending trendline, a move that traders say could result in Ether price correcting to new lows.

ETH/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Here’s a rundown of what several analysts in the market are saying about the move lower for Ethereum and what it could mean for its price in the near term.

Price consolidation will eventually result in a sharp move

A brief check-in on what levels of support and resistance to keep an eye on was provided by independent market analyst Michaël van de Poppe, who posted the following chart showing Ether trading near its range low.

ETH/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Twitter

Van de Poppe said:

“The question will be whether we can bounce from here and break the $1,940 level. If that happens, I’m assuming we’ll continue $2,050. If it doesn’t, then the markets are looking at

ETH could make new lows into a bullish falling wedge

According to Twitter analyst Crypto Tony, Ether price is “still looking for that leg down to load up on.”

ETH/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Twitter

While it might look negative, this development is actually a positive sign, according to Cointelegraph contributor Jon Morgan, who noted that the pattern outlined on this chart is a falling wedge, a “bullish standard candlestick/bar chart pattern that is indicative of a market that has moved to an extreme and is likely to reverse.”

Morgan said:

“Very high expectancy rate of creating either a violent corrective move higher or an entirely new uptrend.”

Related: Ethereum price dips below the $1.8K support as bears prepare for Friday’s $1B options expiry

Bitcoin dominance rises

ETH/BTC 1-day chart. Source: Twitter

According to economist Caleb Franzen, the ETH/BTC pair lost a key support and this is notable because:

“This means that at least one of these statements will be true: $ETH is weakening relative to $BTC; $BTC will outperform $ETH; Alts will underperform $BTC.”

Adding to the ETH/BTC discussion, Twitter user CrediBULL Crypto noted that the price is “starting to take some of our local lows.”

ETH/BTC 3-day chart. Source: Twitter

The analyst said:

“Any relief here is temporary until we traverse to the bottom of this range, imo. In fact, we may head even lower than pictured here before staging a recovery, but will assess once we hit my target.”

In general, continued weakness with the ETH/BTC pair has the potential to result in the price of Ether and altcoins trending lower while BTC could hold at its current price or even head higher as traders rotate out of underperforming positions into Bitcoin.

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.235 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 46.2%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Ethereum price dips below the $1.8K support as bears prepare for Friday’s $1B options expiry

Looming macroeconomic concerns and this week’s $1B ETH options expiry threaten to pin Ethereum price under the $1,800 support.

Ether’s (ETH) performance over the past three months has been less than satisfying for holders and the 50% correction since April 3 caused the altcoin to test the $1,800 support for the first time since July 2021.

Ether/USD 1-day chart at Kraken. Source: TradingView

Due to the volatility in stocks, investors had been seeking shelter in the United States dollar and on May 13, the DXY index reached its highest level in 20 years. DXY measures the USD against a basket of major foreign currencies, including the British pound (GBP), the euro (EUR) and the Japanese yen (JPY).

Moreover, the five-year U.S. Treasury yield reached its highest level since August 2018, trading at 3.10% on May 9 and signaling that investors demand larger returns to compensate for inflation. In a nutshell, macroeconomic data reflects risk-averse sentiment from investors and this partially explains Ether’s downturn.

Further creating panic among Ether traders was a seven-block chain reorg on Ethereum’s Beacon Chain on May 25. A valid transaction sequence was knocked off the chain due to a competing block getting more support from network participants. Fortunately, this situation is not uncommon and it might have emerged from a miner with high resources or a bug.

The main victims of Ether’s 11% price correction were leverage traders (longs) who saw $160 million in aggregate liquidations at derivatives exchanges, according to data from Coinglass.

Bulls placed their bets at $2,100 and higher

The open interest for the Ether’s May monthly options expiry is $1.04 billion, but the actual figure will be much lower since bulls were overly-optimistic. These traders might have been fooled by the short-lived pump to $2,950 on May 4 because their bets for the May 27 options expiry extend beyond $3,000.

The drop below $1,800 took bulls by surprise because virtually none of the call (buy) options for May 27 have been placed below that price level.

Ether options aggregate open interest for May 27. Source: CoinGlass

The 0.94 call-to-put ratio shows the slight dominance of the $540 million put (sell) open interest against the $505 million call (buy) options. Nevertheless, as Ether stands near $1,800, every bullish bet is likely to become worthless.

If Ether’s price remains below $1,800 at 8:00 am UTC on May 27, none of the $505 million call options will be available. This difference happens because a right to buy Ether at $1,800 or higher is worthless if Ether trades below that level on expiry.

Bears aim for a $325 million profit

Below are the three most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on May 27 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

  • Between $1,600 and $1,700: 0 calls vs. 230,000 puts. The net result favors the put (bear) instruments by $370 million.
  • Between $1,700 and $1,800: 50 calls vs. 192,300 puts. The net result favors bears by $325 million.
  • Between $1,800 and $2,000: 3,300 calls vs. 150,000 puts. The net result favors the put (bear) instruments by $280 million.

This crude estimate considers the put options used in bearish bets and the call options exclusively in neutral-to-bullish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

For instance, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining positive exposure to Ether above a specific price, but unfortunately, there’s no easy way to estimate this effect.

Bulls should throw the towel and focus on the June expiry

Ether bears need to sustain the price below $1,800 on May 27 to secure a $325 million profit. On the other hand, the bulls’ best case scenario requires a push above $1,800 to reduce the damage by $45 million.

Ether bulls had $160 million leverage long positions liquidated on May 26, so they should have less margin to drive the price higher. With this said, bears will undoubtedly try to suppress Ether below $1,800 ahead of the May 27 options expiry.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

‘Extreme fear’ grips Bitcoin price, but analysts point to signs of a potential reversal

Sideways crypto price action persists as the Federal Reserve confirms its plan to continue raising interest rates, but analysts spot a silver lining.

The cryptocurrency market settled into a holding pattern on May 25 after traders opted to sit on the sidelines ahead of the midday Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where the Federal Reserve signaled that it intends to continue on its path of raising interest rates. According to data from Alternative.me, the Fear and Greed Index is seeing its longest run of extreme fear since the market crash in Mach 2020.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the price action for Bitcoin (BTC) has continued to compress into an increasingly narrow trading range, but technical analysis indicators are not providing much insight on what direction a possible breakout could take.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Here’s a look at what analysts think could come next for Bitcoin price.

Whales accumulate as Bitcoin battles to reclaim $30,000

BTC/USDT 15-minute chart. Source: Twitter

According to market analyst Michaël van de Poppe, “#Bitcoin broke through $29.4K and ran towards the next resistance zone. If we hold $29.4K, we’ll be good towards $32.8K. Finally.”

One interesting thing to note at these price levels is that while the predominant sentiment is that of extreme fear, on-chain intelligence firm Santiment pointed out that whale wallets have taken this as an opportunity to accumulate some well-priced BTC.

Bitcoin price vs. supply distribution. Source: Santiment

Santiment said:

“As #Bitcoin continues treading water at $29.6K, the amount of key whale addresses (holding 100 to 1k $BTC) continues rising after the massive dumping from late January. We’ve historically seen a correlation between price & this tier’s address quantity.”

Price could still pull back to $22,500

A macro perspective on how Bitcoin performs following the appearance of a death cross was offered by pseudonymous Twitter user Rekt Capital, who posted the following chart outlining what to expect if the “historical price tendencies relating to the #BTC Death Cross repeat […]”

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Twitter

Rekt Capital said:

“$BTC will breakdown from the Macro Range Low support & continue its drop to complete -43% downside. The -43% mark is confluent with the 200-Week MA at ~$22500.”

Related: Scott Minerd says Bitcoin price will drop to $8K, but technical analysis says otherwise

“A pivotal retest”

The importance of the current price level for Bitcoin was touched upon by economist Caleb Franzen, who posted the following chart looking at the long-term performance of BTC versus its weekly anchored volume-weighted average price (AVWAP), noting that “This is a pivotal retest, similar to the dynamics in March 2022.”

BTC/USD vs AVWAP 1-week chart. Source: Twitter

Franzen said:

“A rebound on the weekly AVWAP from the COVID low could increase bullish probabilities. A breakdown below it would drastically increase bearish probabilities, foreshadowing a retest of the grey range, $13.8k-19.8k.”

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.265 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 44.8%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Polkadot parachains spike after the launch of a $250M aUSD stablecoin fund

Polkadot parachains posted double-digit gains after partnership announcements, protocol integrations and a stablecoin development fund caught the attention of the crypto investors.

Crypto prices have been exploring new lows for weeks and currently it’s unclear what it will take to reverse the trend. Despite the downtrend, cryptocurrencies within the Polkadot (DOT) ecosystem began to rally on May 24 and have managed to maintain gains ranging from 10% to 25%, a possible sign that certain sub-sectors of the market are on the verge of a breakout.

Here’s a look at three Polkadot ecosystem protocols that have seen their token prices trend higher in recent days.

Acala launches a $250 million aUSD ecosystem fund

Acala (ACA) is the leading decentralized finance (DeF) platform on the Polkadot network, primarily due to the launch of aUSD, the first native stablecoin in the Polkadot ecosystem.

Following the collapse of Terra’s LUNA and TerraUSD (UST), traders were searching for “safer” stablecoin options.

On March 23, ACA rallied after the project announced the launch of a $250 million “aUSD Ecosystem Fund” that aims to support early-stage startups planning to build strong stablecoin use cases on any Polkadot or Kusama parachain.

Acala also announced the launch of a kickoff rewards program that has set aside 1 million ACA tokens as rewards for LCDOT/DOT, LCDOT/aUSD, ACA/aUSD and aUSD/LDOT liquidity providers.

Following the aUSD ecosystem fund announcement, the price of ACA spiked 31% from a low of $0.364 on May 23 to a daily high of $0.478 on May 24.

Astar rallies after revealing a partnership with Microsoft

The Astar (ASTR) network is a smart contract hub for the Polkadot community that supports Ethereum (ETH), WebAssembly and other layer-two solutions like zk-Rollups.

Since the Polkadot relay chain doesn’t offer Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) support, Astar was created to become a multi-chain smart contract platform capable of supporting multiple blockchains and virtual machines so that they can integrate with the Polkadot ecosystem.

On May 24, it was revealed that AstridDAO, an Astar-based protocol responsible for minting the collateralized BAI stablecoin, had signed a partnership with Microsoft to become part of Microsoft for Startups, an initiative “which removes traditional barriers to building a company with exclusive access to technology, coaching, marketing and support.”

If successful, the partnership should accelerate AstridDAO’s go-to-market speed and maximize its market influence. It also includes up to $350,000 worth of benefits through Github Enterprise, Microsoft Teams and Azure credits.

Following the partnership announcement, the price of ASTR spiked 61% from $0.055 to a daily high of $0.0888.

Related: Polkadot vs. Ethereum: Two equal chances to dominate the Web3 world

Uniswap v3 to deploy on Moonbeam

Moonbeam (GLMR) is an Ethereum-compatible smart contract parachain on Polkadot that streamlines the use of Ethereum developer tools to build or redeploy Solidity projects in a substrate-based environment.

Interoperability with the Ethereum network is a highly sought-after capability since a majority of decentralized applications currently operate on Ethereum along with a majority of the value in decentralized finance.

The benefit of EVM interoperability was demonstrated with the May 24 announcement that a proposal to deploy Uniswap (UNI) v3 on the Moonbeam network passed, meaning that the top decentralized exchange in the crypto ecosystem will soon be accessible to Moonbeam users.

Following the announcement, the price of GLMR climbed 29% from a low of $1.15 on May 23 to a daily high at $1.48 on May 24 as its 24-hour trading volume increased 106% to $75.3 million.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Price analysis 5/25: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, AVAX, SHIB

Bitcoin and the major altcoins remain stuck in a range as traders search for the next factor that will start a directional move.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been struggling to sustain above $30,800 since May 16, suggesting that demand dries up at higher levels. Similarly, U.S. equity markets have not ceased to decline due to uncertainty regarding the number of rate hikes that will be needed to bring inflation under control

As the crypto bear market deepens, analysts are becoming extra bearish on their projections for the extent of the fall. Trader and analyst Rekt Capital said that Bitcoin could be at risk of falling to $19,000 to $15,500 before a bottom is formed.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

However, Arcane Research recently pointed out that buying when Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed Index reaches a score of 8 had resulted in an average median 30-day return of 28.72%. Interestingly, the index hit 8 on May 17.

Could Bitcoin slide further and pull altcoins lower or is it time for a recovery? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin rose above the downtrend line on May 23 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. The price turned down and dipped to the strong support at $28,630 on May 24 but a minor positive is that the bulls successfully defended this level.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls are again attempting to push and sustain the price above the downtrend line. If they succeed, the BTC/USDT pair could rally to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($31,286).

In downtrends, the bears tend to sell the rallies to the 20-day EMA. Hence, this level may act as a stiff resistance. The bulls will have to clear this hurdle to suggest that a bottom may be in place.

On the downside, $28,630 is the important support to keep an eye on because a break below it could result in a drop to the May 12 intraday low at $26,700.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) dipped below the uptrend line on May 24 but the bulls bought at lower levels and pushed the price back above the uptrend line. This suggests that bulls are trying to defend the uptrend line with vigor.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

However, the bears have not given up and they are again attempting to pull the price below the uptrend line on May 25. If bulls thwart this attempt, the ETH/USDT could rise to the overhead resistance at $2,159.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price breaks and sustains below the uptrend line, it will suggest advantage to bears. The pair could then decline to $1,903. A break and close below this support could pull the pair to the May 12 intraday low at $1,800.

BNB/USDT

BNB climbed above the 20-day EMA ($323) on May 24 but the long wick on the May 25 candlestick suggests that the bears are attempting to defend the overhead resistance at $350.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The flattish 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) near the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears.

If bulls push the price above $350, the advantage could tilt in favor of the buyers. Such a move could clear the path for a potential rally to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($368) and later to $413.

Conversely, if the price turns down and breaks below $320, it will suggest that bears are aggressively selling at higher levels. The BNB/USDT pair could then slide to $286.

XRP/USDT

The bulls are defending the immediate support at $0.38. Although Ripple (XRP) bounced off $0.39 on May 24, the bulls could not sustain the higher levels.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears are again attempting to sink the price below the support at $0.38 but the long tail on the candlestick suggests strong buying at lower levels. If the demand sustains at higher levels, the bulls will attempt to push the price above the downtrend line and challenge the 20-day EMA ($0.46).

On the contrary, if the price turns down from the current level or the downtrend line, the bears may again try to sink the XRP/USDT pair below $0.38. If they can pull it off, the pair could drop to the vital support at $0.33.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) has been trading in a tight range between $0.49 and $0.56 since May 19. This suggests that bulls are attempting to form a higher low but are facing stiff resistance from the bears at higher levels.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price rebounds off the support at $0.49, the ADA/USDT pair may remain stuck in the range for a few more days. The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.58) to indicate the start of a strong relief rally that may reach the breakdown level of $0.74.

Instead, if bears sink the price below the strong support at $0.49, the selling may intensify and the pair could slide toward the May 12 intraday low at $0.40.

SOL/USDT

Solana’s (SOL) attempt to rally on May 23 fizzled out at $54. The failure of the bulls to push the price to the 20-day EMA ($58) indicates that demand dries up at higher levels.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears are trying to sink the price below the immediate support at $47. If they manage to do that, the SOL/USDT pair could drop to $43 and thereafter to the critical support at $37. The downsloping moving averages and the RSI near the oversold territory indicate advantage to sellers.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price rebounds off $47, the bulls will try to propel the pair above the 20-day EMA and challenge the breakdown level at $75.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) has been stuck inside a tight range between $0.08 and $0.09 for the past few days. The bulls tried to push the price above $0.09 on May 23 but failed. This may have attracted selling by the bears who are trying to sink the price below the immediate support at $0.08.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If they succeed, the DOGE/USDT pair could slide to the crucial support at $0.06. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because a break and close below it could resume the downtrend. The pair could then drop to $0.04.

On the contrary, if the price rebounds off $0.08, the pair may continue to trade inside the range for a few more days. The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the psychological level of $0.10 to indicate that the downtrend may be weakening.

Related: Singapore venture firm launches $100M Web3 and metaverse fund

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) has been clinging to the $10.37 level for the past few days. The bulls pushed the price above $10.37 on May 23 but could not sustain the higher levels. This suggests that bears are selling on rallies to the 20-day EMA ($11.23).

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears may try to pull the price to the immediate support at $9.22. If this support cracks, the DOT/USDT pair could drop to $8 and thereafter to $7.30. The bulls are expected to defend the zone between $8 and $7.30 aggressively.

On the upside, the buyers will have to push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA to indicate that the sellers may be losing their grip. The pair could then rally to the breakdown level at $14 where the bears may again mount a strong defense.

AVAX/USDT

Avalanche (AVAX) broke below the pennant formation on May 24 but the long tail on the day’s candlestick shows that bulls bought the dip. They tried to push the price back into the pennant but failed.

AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears are trying to build upon their advantage and pull the price below the immediate support at $26.87. If they do that, the AVAX/USDT pair could slide to the crucial support at $23.51. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because if they fail to do that, the downtrend could resume. The next support on the downside is $20.

To invalidate this bearish view in the short term, the bulls will have to push the price above the pennant and the 20-day EMA ($37.23).

SHIB/USDT

Shiba Inu (SHIB) attempted to break above the immediate resistance at $0.000013 on May 23 but the long wick on the day’s candlestick shows that bears continue to sell at higher levels.

SHIB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The failure of the bulls to push the price higher could attract selling by aggressive bears who will try to pull the SHIB/USDT pair below the immediate support at $0.000010. If they manage to do that, the pair could slide to the May 12 intraday low at $0.000009.

Alternatively, if the price rebounds off the support at $0.000010, it will suggest that bulls are buying on dips. That could keep the pair stuck inside the $0.000010 to $0.000014 range for a few more days.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

Bitcoin creeps toward $30K, but data shows bears in favor for Friday’s $1.8B BTC options expiry

Traders are calling for a “relief rally” to $35,000, but derivatives data shows bears stand to profit from this week’s $1.81 billion BTC options expiry.

Bitcoin (BTC) price has been unable to close above $32,000 for the past fifteen days and is currently down 37% year-to-date. Although that might seem excessive, it does not stand out among some of the largest U.S.-listed tech companies that have also sustained notable losses recently. 

In this same 15-day period, Shopify Inc. (SHOP) stock dropped 76%, Snap Inc. (SNAP) crashed 73%, Netflix (NFLX) is down 70% and Cloudflare (NET) presented a negative 62% performance.

Cryptocurrency investors should be less concerned about the current “bear market” considering Bitcoin’s 79% annualized volatility. However, that is clearly not the case, because Bitcoin’s “Fear and Greed Index” reached an 8 out of 100 on May 17, the lowest level since March 2020.

Traders fear that worsening macroeconomic conditions could cause investors to seek shelter in the U.S. dollar and Treasuries. Japan’s industrial production data released on May 18 showed a 1.7% contraction year-over-year. Moreover, May 20 retail sales data from the United Kingdom showed a 4.9% decline versus 2021.

Financial analysts across the globe blame the weakened market conditions on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s slow reaction to the inflation surge. Thus, traders increasingly seek shelter outside of riskier assets, which negatively impacts Bitcoin price.

Bulls placed most bets above $40,000

The open interest for the monthly May 27 options expiry in Bitcoin is $1.81 billion, but the actual figure will be lower since bulls were caught by surprise as the BTC price has fallen 26% in the last 30 days.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for May 27. Source: CoinGlass

The 1.31 call-to-put ratio reflects the $1.03 billion call (buy) open interest against the $785 million put (sell) options. Nevertheless, 94% of the bullish bets will likely become worthless as Bitcoin currently trades near $30,000.

If Bitcoin’s price remains below $31,000 on May 27, bulls will only have $60 million worth of these call (buy) options available. This difference happens because there is no use in a right to buy Bitcoin at $31,000 if it trades below that level on expiry.

Related: Low inflation or bust: Analysts say the Fed has no choice but to continue raising rates

Bears can secure a $390 million profit on May 27

Below are the three most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on May 27 for call (buy) and put (sell) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

  • Between $28,000 and $30,000: 800 calls (buy) vs. 14,200 puts (sell). The net result favors bears by $390 million.
  • Between $30,000 and $32,000: 2,050 calls (buy) vs. 11,200 puts (sell). Bears have a $250 million advantage.
  • Between $32,000 and $33,000: 5,650 calls (buy) vs. 9,150 puts (sell). The net result favors bears by $110 million.

This crude estimate considers the call options used in bullish bets and the put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

For example, a trader could have sold a call option, effectively gaining negative exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price, but unfortunately, there’s no easy way to estimate this effect.

Bitcoin bears need to sustain the price below $30,000 on May 27 to profit $390 million from the monthly options expiry. On the other hand, bulls can reduce their loss by pushing BTC above $32,000, an 8% rally from the current $29,700 price. However, judging by the bearish macroeconomic conditions, bears seem better positioned for May 27 expiry.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Scott Minerd says Bitcoin price will drop to $8K, but technical analysis says otherwise

BTC price could be poised for a big bounce despite Minerd’s prediction that price will drop to $8,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) is predicted to drop more than 70% to the $8,000 value area, according to comments by Guggenheim chief investment officer Scott Minerd. This is not the first time he has made a bearish call, and he has, in the past, made bullish calls as well. However, Minerd’s more recent calls have occurred just before major reversals.

It should be noted that Mr. Minerd, if inferred from previous comments, is a Bitcoin bull and has a long forecast for the biggest digital asset in the six-figure range. However, if traders and investors used his comments as a sentiment indicator for a market low, then other confirmatory data must be used.

Long term oscillators values support a bullish reversal

The weekly and monthly RSI (relative strength index) and composite index show that extremes have been met. These extremes do not predict or guarantee a reversal. Still, they warn bears that the momentum of further downside movement is likely to be severely limited or eliminated.

BTC/USD weekly relative strength index (RSI) (Coinbase) Source: TradingView

The weekly RSI remains in bull market conditions, despite it moving below both the oversold levels of 50 and 40 — until it hits 30, the bull market RSI settings remain. Currently, at 33, this weekly RSI level is the lowest since the week of December 10, 2018, and just below the March 2020 COVID-19 crash low of 33.48.

Likewise, the weekly composite index reading for Bitcoin is at an extreme. It is currently at the lowest level it has traded at since the week of February 8, 2018. The current level that the weekly composite index is at has historically been a strong indicator that a swing low is likely to develop.

BTC/USD weekly composite index (Coinbase) Source: TradingView

The black vertical lines identify the most recent historical lows in Bitcoin’s weekly composite index.

Chart patterns on oscillators can help identify upcoming reversals

The use of basic chart patterns like rectangles and triangles on a Japanese candlestick or American bar charts c is not limited to just the price chart. For example, the great analyst and trader Connie Brown (the creator of the composite index) impresses analysts and traders to pay attention to chart patterns in oscillators.

BTC/USD monthly (RSI) (Coinbase) Source: TradingView

The falling wedge pattern on the monthly RSI fulfills all the requirements to confirm that pattern: five touches of the trend lines. It should be noted that the monthly RSI for Bitcoin, like the weekly RSI, remains in bull market conditions, and the current RSI is just below the first oversold level of 50.

Another major development with Bitcon’s oscillators is the regular bullish divergence between the monthly RSI and the monthly composite index. The composite index, created by Connie Brown, essentially is the RSI with a momentum calculation — it catches moves that the RSI cannot.

Note the structure of the lines on the monthly RSI compared to the composite index. The RSI shows lower lows, but the composite index shows higher lows. That is a regular bullish divergence.

BTC/USD Monthly composite index (Coinbase) Source: TradingView

Regular bullish divergence is most often measured between price and an oscillator, but it can also be measured between two oscillators. Regular bullish divergence is a warning sign that the current downtrend will likely face a corrective move higher or the beginning of a new uptrend.

Bitcoin price action remains correlated to stocks

Due to the continued correlative behavior between Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market to stocks, special attention should be given to this week, specifically Thursday (May 26, 2022).

Economists and Wall Street continued to sound off worries about growth. After Target’s (NYSE: TGT) dismal quarterly report last week, all eyes are on other big-name retailers announcing earnings on May 26: Macy’s (NYSE: M), Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR) and Dollar General (NYSE: DG) are all on deck May 26.

However, given that much of the stock market is below bear market levels, any negative news from retail stocks or the United States Federal Reserve is likely to be considered “priced in.” Volume into the tech-heavy NASDAQ (NASDAQ: QQQ) has increased, as have inflows to Bitcoin and the wider crypto market.

Thus, if stocks bounce, Bitcoin will bounce. The upside potential for Bitcoin will likely be limited to the critical psychological and 2022 volume point of control at $40,000.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Weak stocks and declining DeFi use continue to weigh on Ethereum price

Crumbling tech stock prices, declining DApp use and bearish derivatives data continue to pin ETH price below $2,000.

Ether’s (ETH) 12-hour closing price has been respecting a tight $1,910 to $2,150 range for twelve days, but oddly enough, these 13% oscillations have been enough to liquidate an aggregate of $495 million in futures contracts since May 13, according to data from Coinglass.

Ether/USD 12-hour price at Kraken. Source: TradingView

The worsening market conditions were also reflected in digital asset investment products. According to the latest edition of CoinShare’s weekly Digital Asset Fund Flows report, crypto funds and investment products saw a $141 million outflow during the week ending on May 20. In this instance, Bitcoin (BTC) was the investors’ focus after experiencing a $154 weekly net redemption.

Russian regulation and crumbling U.S. tech stocks escalate the situation

Regulatory uncertainty weighed on investor sentiment after an updated version of the Russian mining law proposal came to light on May 20. The document in the lower chamber of the Russian parliament no longer contained the obligation for a crypto mining operators registry nor the one-year tax amnesty. As cited by local media, the legal department of the Duma stated that these measures could “possibly incur costs on the federal budget.”

Additional pressure on Ether price came from the Nasdaq Composite Index’s 2.5% downturn on May 24. In addition, the heavily-tech stock-driven indicator was pressured after social media platform Snap (SNAP) tumbled 40%, citing rising inflation, supply chain constraints and labor disruptions. Consequently, Meta Platforms (FB) shares fell by 10%.

On-chain data and derivatives are in favor of bears

The number of active addresses on the largest Ethereum network’s decentralized applications (DApps) has dropped by 27% from the previous week.

Ethereum network’s most active DApps in USD terms. Source: DappRadar

The network’s most active decentralized applications saw a substantial reduction in users. For instance, Uniswap (UNI) V3 weekly addresses decreased by 24%, while Curve (CRV) faced 52% fewer users.

To understand how professional traders, whales and market makers are positioned, let’s look at Ether’s futures market data.

Quarterly futures are used by whales and arbitrage desks due, primarily, to their lack of a fluctuating funding rate. These fixed-month contracts usually trade at a slight premium to spot markets, indicating that sellers request more money to withhold settlement longer.

These futures should trade at a 5% to 12% annualized premium in healthy markets. This situation is technically defined as “contango” and is not exclusive to crypto markets.

Ether futures 3-month annualized premium. Source: Laevitas

Related: Bitcoin price returns to weekly lows under $29K as Nasdaq leads fresh U.S. stocks dive

Ether’s futures contracts premium went below the 5% neutral-market threshold on April 6. There’s an evident lack of conviction from leverage buyers because the current 3% basis indicator remains depressed.

Ether might have gained 2% after testing the $1,910 channel resistance on May 24, but on-chain data shows a lack of user growth, while derivatives data point toward bearish sentiment.

Until there’s some morale improvement that boosts the use of decentralized applications and the Ether futures premium regains the 5% neutral level, the odds of the price breaking above the $2,150 resistance seems low.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Assuming Bitcoin plays nice, higher timeframe analysis points to $90 Solana (SOL) price

Solana continues to consolidate near the critical $50 price range, while bulls have begun to flirt with the idea of a possible upswing.

Solana (SOL) price has begun to consolidate in a tightening range and if the wider market remains stable, it’s possible that SOL could break out in the short-term.

SOL’s upside potential in the short term could be significant with the move, itself, occurring quickly. The 2022 Volume Profile between $53 and $90 is extremely thin, indicating that any daily close above $53 would easily move towards the next high volume node in the $90 value area.

In addition, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the all-time high to the July 26, 2021 weekly low and the 2022 Volume Point of Control also exist in the $90 price zone.

SOL/USDT Daily Chart (Binance) Source: TradingView

Bulls traders should anticipate some resistance for SOL price near the Kijun-Sen and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near the $70 price range. However, given how thin the Volume Profile is, that resistance may be short-lived.

Historicals suggest sells may struggle to pin SOL under $50

Downside pressure remains a concern but is likely limited in size and scope. The triangle pattern on the daily chart shows bulls have made another attempt to push SOL up and out, but have so far been rejected from spending any meaningful time above the upper trendline.

SOL/USDT Daily Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Chart (Binance) Source: TradingView

If a bearish breakout below the triangle does occur, bulls will understandably panic, but bears shouldn’t be overly confident. Despite the 2022 Volume Profile being thin below the $39 price level, the 2021 indicator also shows considerable participation between $41 and $48.

Another fast sell-off toward $39 is likely to occur if SOL closes the daily candlestick at or below $49.

Time cycles indicate a change in trend may begin soon

Solana price action is poised for a substantial bullish bounce from a time cycle perspective. In Gann Analysis, one of the most powerful time cycles is the 180-day cycle (extending to 198 days). Gann indicated that any instrument trending in a single direction over 180 days has a high probability of generating a powerful corrective move or a major trend change.

SOL/USDT Daily Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Chart (Binance) Source: TradingView

May 23, 2022 is the 196th day from the all-time high made on November 8, 2021.

Complimenting Gann’s 180-day cycle is an event within the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo system: a Kumo Twist. A Kumo Twist is the time period when Senkou Span A crosses Senkou Span B. Additionally, the Cloud changing color can be observed. Kumo Twists have a high probability of identifying when a new swing low/high may occur.

Macroeconomic data will continue to weigh on crypto

Solana and the broader crypto market remain at the mercy of the stock market. While the stock market has mounted a modest recovery during the May 23 session, all four major indices are in or near bear market territory.

For example, the RUSSELL 200 (IWM) is down -27%, the NASDAQ (NDX) by -28% and the S&P 500 (SPY) hit bear market territory on Friday, May 20, but it crawled out of it Monday, May 23,. Still, the index remains close to bear market conditions at -17%. Only the DOW has remained out of bear market territory.

Volatility is expected to be exceptionally high this week as well. New home sales data comes out on May 24, durable goods on May 25, GDP growth rate on May 26, and personal spending and income (MoM) on May 27.

Expect any bearish or bullish price action in the stock market to be mirrored by the cryptocurrency market.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Crypto funds under management drop to a low not seen since July 2021

Outflows from digital asset funds reached $141 million last week, a figure not seen since July 2021.

Digital asset investment products saw $141 million in outflows during the week ending on May 20, a move that reduced the total assets under management (AUM) by institutional funds down to $38 billion, the lowest level since July 2021. 

According to the latest edition of CoinShare’s weekly Digital Asset Fund Flows report, Bitcoin (BTC) was the primary focus of outflows after experiencing a decline of $154 million for the week. The removal of funds coincided with a choppy week of trading that saw the price of BTC oscillate between $28,600 and $31,430.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Despite the sizable outflow, the month-to-date BTC flow for May remain positive at $187.1 million, while the year-to-date figure stands at $307 million.

On a more positive note, the multi-asset category of investment products managed to record a total of $9.7 million worth of inflows last week. This brings the yearly total inflow into these products to $185 million, representing 5.3% of the total AUM.

CoinShares pointed to the uptick in volatility as a possible source for the increased inflows into multi-asset investment products, which can be seen as “safer relative to single line investment products during volatile periods.” So far in 2020, these investment products have only experienced two weeks of outflows.

Cardano (ADA) and Polkadot (DOT) led the altcoin inflows with increases of $1 million each, followed by $700,000 worth of inflows into Ripple (XRP) and $500,000 into Solana (SOL).

Flows by asset during the week ending May 20, 2022. Source: CoinShares

Out of all the assets covered, Ethereum (ETH) has seen the worst performance so far this year with $44 million worth of outflows in the month of May bringing its year-to-date figure to $239 million.

Related: Bitcoin’s current setup creates an interesting risk-reward situation for bulls

Strengthening dollar continues to impact crypto market sentiment

The declining interest in digital asset investment products comes amid the backdrop of a strengthening dollar, which has been “one of the most important macro factors driving asset prices over the last six months,” according to cryptocurrency market intelligence firm Delphi Digital.

U.S. dollar currency index. 1-week chart. Source: Delphi Digital

As shown on the chart above, the Dollar Index (DXY) has risen from 95 at the start of 2022 to 102 on May 23, a year-to-date gain of 6.8%. This marks the fastest year-over-year change for the DXY in recent history and led to a breakout from the range it had been stuck in for the past seven-years.

Delphi Digital said,

“This DXY strength has been a consistent drag to risk asset performances over this same time period.”

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.