Leverage

How Bitcoin’s strong correlation to stocks could trigger a drop to $8,000

The absence of a CME Bitcoin futures premium, unrelenting record-high inflation and investor concerns over the economy are all factors weighing on BTC price.

The Bitcoin (BTC) price chart from the past couple of months reflects nothing more than a bearish outlook and it’s no secret that the cryptocurrency has consistently made lower lows since breaching $48,000 in late March.

*Bitcoin price in USD. Source: TradingView*

Curiously, the difference in support levels has been getting wider as the correction continues to drain investor confidence and risk appetite. For example, the latest $19,000 baseline is almost $10,000 away from the previous support. So if the same movement is bound to happen, the next logical price level would be $8,000.

Traders are afraid of regulation and contagion

On July 11, the Financial Stability Board (FSB), a global financial regulator including all G20 countries, announced that a framework of recommendations for the crypto sector is expected in October. The FSB added that international regulators need to supervise crypto markets in line with the principle of “same activity, same risk, same regulation.”

In a written speech on July 12, Jon Cunliffe, deputy governor for financial stability at the Bank of England, said that crypto is somehow over and it should not be a concern anymore. Cunliffe added: “innovation has to happen within a framework in which risks are managed.”

To date, investors still haven’t figured out the total losses from deposits on crypto lenders Celsius and Voyager Digital, and both firms continue to seek either a recovery plan or bankruptcy. According to Voyager, the firm still holds $650 million worth of “claims against Three Arrows Capital,” so the exact numbers of customer assets remain unknown.

The negative newsflow is reflected in the CME’s Bitcoin futures contracts premium. This data measures the difference between longer-term futures contracts and the current spot prices in regular markets.

Whenever this indicator fades or turns negative, this is an alarming red flag. This situation is also known as backwardation and indicates that bearish sentiment is present.

*BTC CME 1-month forward contract premium vs. Coinbase/USD. Source: TradingView*

These fixed-month contracts usually trade at a slight premium, indicating that sellers are requesting more money to withhold settlement for longer. As a result, futures should trade at a 0.25%–0.75% premium in healthy markets, a situation known as contango.

Notice how the indicator has stood below the “neutral” range since early April, since Bitcoin failed to sustain levels above $45,000. The data shows that institutional traders are unwilling to open leverage long positions, although it is not yet a bearish structure.

Macroeconomic fears are preventing investors from trading crypto

Exchange-provided data highlights traders’ long-to-short net positioning. By analyzing every client’s position on the spot, perpetual and futures contracts, one can better understand whether professional traders are leaning bullish or bearish.

There are occasional discrepancies in the methodologies between different exchanges, so viewers should monitor changes instead of absolute figures.

*Exchanges top traders Bitcoin long-to-short ratio. Source: Coinglass*

Despite Bitcoin’s 11% correction from July 9 to 12, top traders have increased their leverage longs. The long-to-short ratio at Binance remained relatively flat at 1.13, while the top traders at Huobi started at 0.95 and finished the period at 0.93. However, this impact was more than compensated by OKX traders increasing their bullish bets from 1.09 to 1.32.

The lack of a premium in the CME futures contract is not concerning because Bitcoin is struggling with the $20,000 resistance. Furthermore, top traders on derivatives exchanges have increased their longs despite the 11% price drop in three days.

Regulatory pressure is unlikely to recede in the short term and at the same time, there’s not much that the Federal Reserve can do to suppress inflation without triggering some form of an economic crisis. For this reason, pro traders are not rushing to buy the dip because Bitcoin’s correlation to traditional assets remains high.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin traders expect a ‘generational bottom,’ but BTC derivatives data disagrees

BTC bulls think the bottom is in, but a neutral-to-bearish price formation and the absence of a futures premium contradict their optimism.

A descending triangle pattern has been pressuring Bitcoin (BTC) for the past three weeks and while some traders cite this as a bullish reversal pattern, the $19,000 support remains a crucial level to determine the bulls’ fate.

*BTC-USD 12-hour price. Source: TradingView*

Despite the apparent lack of a clear price bottom, Bitcoin derivatives metrics have significantly improved since June 30 and positive news from global asset manager VanEck may have eased traders’ sentiment.

On July 5, two retirement funds in the U.S. state of Virginia announced a $35 million commitment to VanEck’s cryptocurrency-focused investment fund.

On the same day, a Huobi exchange subsidiary received its money services business (MSB) license from the United States Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN). The Seychelles-based company stated that the license creates a foundation for expanding crypto-related business in the United States.

A bit of positive news came out on July 7 as decentralized finance staking and lending platform Celsius Network announced that it had fully repaid its outstanding debt to Maker (MKR) protocol.

Celsius is among several crypto yield platforms on the brink of insolvency after historic losses across multiple positions. Forced sales on leveraged positions by exchanges and decentralized finance (DeFi) applications accelerated the recent cryptocurrency price crash.

Currently, traders face mixed sentiment between possible contagion impacts and their optimism that the $19,000 support is gaining strength. For this reason, analyzing derivatives data is essential to understand whether investors are pricing higher odds of a market downturn.

Bitcoin futures premium flips slightly positive

Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their fixed settlement date and price difference from spot markets. However, the contracts’ biggest advantage is the lack of a fluctuating funding rate; hence, the prevalence of arbitrage desks and professional traders.

These fixed-month contracts tend to trade at a slight premium to spot markets as sellers request more money to withhold settlement longer. This situation is technically known as “contango” and is not exclusive to crypto markets. Thus, futures should trade at a 5% to 10% annualized premium in healthy markets.

*Bitcoin 3-month futures’ annualized premium. Source: Laevitas*

Bitcoin annualized futures’ premium went negative on June 28, indicating low demand from leverage buyers. Yet, the bearish structure did not hold for long as the indicator shifted to the positive area on July 4.

Option traders remain skeptical of each price pump

To exclude externalities specific to the Bitcoin futures instrument, traders must also analyze the options markets. For instance, the 25% delta skew shows when arbitrage desks are overcharging for upside or downside protection.

Options traders give higher odds for a price increase during bullish markets, causing the skew indicator to fall below -12%. Meanwhile, a market’s generalized fear sentiment induces a 12% or higher positive skew.

*Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas*

June 18 marked the highest-ever record 30-day delta skew, typical of extremely bearish markets. Still, the current 16% skew level shows investors’ reluctance to provide downside protection, a fact reflected by the overcharging for put options.

Contagion is still a threat that adds pressure across the market

It’s tough to call whether $17,580 was the cycle low, but some traders attribute the movement to Three Arrows Capital’s failure to meet its margin calls.

Some traders are calling for a “generational bottom,” but there is still a long way before investors flip bullish as Bitcoin remains locked in a descending triangle formation.

3AC got liquidated at the generational bottom, send everything into super cycle with haste

— hentaiavenger66 (@hentaiavenger66) July 6, 2022

From one side, Bitcoin derivatives metrics show modest improvement since June 30. On the other hand, investors remain suspicious of further contagion from such an important venture capital and crypto asset manager.

Sometimes the best trade is to wait for a clearer market structure and avoid leverage at all costs, regardless of your certainty of a cycle bottom.

Analysts identify 3 critical flaws that brought DeFi down

Poor risk management, insufficient revenue and the overuse of leverage are the core reasons why DeFi is crumbling.

The cryptocurrency market has had a rough go this year and the collapse of multiple projects and funds sparked a contagion effect that has affected just about everyone in the space.

The dust has yet to settle, but a steady flow of details is allowing investors to piece together a picture that highlights the systemic risks of decentralized finance and poor risk management.

Here’s a look at what several experts are saying about the reasons behind the DeFi crash and their perspectives on what needs to be done for the sector to make a comeback.

Failure to generate sustainable revenue

One of the most frequently cited reasons for DeFi protocols struggling is their inability to generate sustainable income that adds meaningful value to the platform’s ecosystem.

Fundamental Design Principles for DeFi:

– If the protocol doesn’t work without a reward token, it’s a Ponzi scheme

A reward token should not be necessary for a protocol to function. That means the protocol is not a revenue generating business.

— Joseph Delong* (@josephdelong) May 23, 2022

In their attempt to attract users, high yields were offered at an unsustainable rate, while there was insufficient inflow to offset payouts and provide underlying value for the platform’s native token.

This essentially means that there was no real value backing the token, which was used to payout the high yields offered to users.

As users began to realize that their assets weren’t really earning the yields they were promised, they would remove their liquidity and sell the reward tokens. This, in turn, caused a decline in the token price, along with a drop in the total value locked (TVL), which further incited panic for users of the protocol who would likewise pull their liquidity and lock in the value of any rewards received.

Tokenomics or Ponzinomics?

A second flaw highlighted by multiple experts is the poorly designed tokenomic structure of many DeFi protocols that often have an extremely high inflation rate which was used to lure liquidity.

High rewards are nice, but if the value of the token being paid out as a reward isn’t really there, then users are basically taking a lot of risk by relinquishing control of their funds for little to no reward.

This largely ties in with DeFi’s revenue generation issue, and the inability to build sustainable treasuries. High inflation increases token supply, and if token value is not maintained, liquidity leaves the ecosystem.

Overleveraged users

The overuse of leverage is another endemic DeFi problem and this flaw became crystal clear as Celsius, 3AC and other platforms invested in DeFi began to unravel last month.

Users who staked these inflationary tokens to over-leverage their positions got liquidated as prices dipped due to market sell-offs.

This led to a death spiral for the protocol. @Wonderland_fi is one such protocol where users leveraged $TIME to borrow $MIM and got liquidated

— Magik Invest ✨ (@magikinvestxyz) June 28, 2022

These liquidations only exasperated the downtrend that many tokens were already experiencing, triggering a death spiral that spread to CeFi and DeFi platforms and a few centralized crypto exchanges.

In this sense, the onus really falls on the users for being over-leveraged without a solid game plan on what to do in the eventuality of a market downturn. While it can be a challenge to think about these things during the height of a bull market, it should always be something in the back of a trader’s mind because the cryptocurrency ecosystem is well known for its whipsaw volatility.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Large Bitcoin liquidations mean one man’s pain is another man’s pleasure — Time to buy the dip?

Pro traders were forced to cut their losses after margin and futures markets became over-leveraged, creating a potential entry point for bullish buyers.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been unable to restore the $24,000 support since Celsius, a popular staking and lending platform, paused withdrawals from its platform on June 13. A growing number of users believe Celsius mismanaged its funds following the collapse of the Anchor Protocol on the Terra (LUNA; now LUNC) ecosystem and rumors of its insolvency continue to circulate.

An even larger issue emerged on June 14 after crypto venture capital firm Three Arrows Capital (3AC) reportedly lost $31.4 million through trading on Bitfinex. Furthermore, 3AC was a known investor in Terra, which experienced a 100% crash in late May.

Unconfirmed reports that 3AC faced liquidations totaling hundreds of millions from multiple positions agitated the market in the early hours of June 15, causing Bitcoin to trade at $20,060, its lowest level since Dec. 15, 2020.

Let’s take a look at current derivatives metrics to understand whether June 15’s bearish trend reflects top traders’ sentiment.

Margin markets deleveraged after a brief spike in longs

Margin trading allows investors to borrow cryptocurrency and leverage their trading position to potentially increase returns. For example, one can buy cryptocurrencies by borrowing Tether (USDT) to enlarge exposure.

On the other hand, Bitcoin borrowers can short the cryptocurrency if they bet on its price decline, and unlike futures contracts, the balance between margin longs and shorts isn‘t always matched. This is why analysts monitor the lending markets to determine whether investors are leaning bullish or bearish.

Interestingly, margin traders boosted their leverage long (bull) position on June 14 to the highest level in two months.

*Bitfinex margin Bitcoin/USD longs/shorts ratio. Source: TradingView*

Bitfinex margin traders are known for creating position contracts of 20,000 BTC or higher in a very short time, indicating the participation of whales and large arbitrage desks.

As the above chart indicates, even on June 14, the number of BTC/USD long margin contracts outpaced shorts by 49 times, at 107,500 BTC. For reference, the last time this indicator stood below 10, favoring longs, was on March 14. The result benefited the counter-traders at that time, as Bitcoin rallied 28% over the following two weeks.

Bitcoin futures data shows pro traders were liquidated

The top traders’ long-to-short net ratio excludes externalities that might have impacted the margin instruments. By analyzing these whale positions on the spot, perpetual and futures contracts, one can better understand whether professional traders are bullish or bearish.

It’s important to note the methodological discrepancies between different exchanges, so the absolute figures have less importance. For example, while Huobi traders have kept their long-to-short ratio relatively unchanged between June 13 and Ju15, professional traders at Binance and OKX reduced their longs.

This movement could represent liquidations, meaning the margin deposit was insufficient to cover their longs. In these cases, the exchange’s automatic deleveraging mechanism takes place by selling the Bitcoin position to reduce the exposure. Either way, the long-to-short ratio is affected and signals a less bullish net position.

Liquidations could represent a buying opportunity

Data from derivatives markets, including margin and futures, show that professional traders were definitely not expecting such a deep and continuous price correction.

Even though there has been a high correlation to the stock market and the S&P 500 index posted a 21.6% year-to-date loss, professional crypto traders were not expecting Bitcoin to drop another 37% in June.

While leverage allows one to maximize gains, it can also force cascading liquidations such as the recent events seen this week. The automated trading systems of exchanges and DeFi platforms sell investors’ positions at whatever price is available when the collateral is insufficient to cover the risk and this put heavy pressure on spot markets.

These liquidations sometimes create a perfect entry point for those savvy and brave enough to counter-trade excessive corrections due to lack of liquidity and the absence of bids on the trading platforms. Whether or not this is the final bottom is something that will be impossible to determine until a few months after this volatility has passed.

Bitcoin derivatives data shows no ‘bottom’ in sight as traders avoid leveraged long positions

Is it time to be greedy? Experienced market makers and arbitrage desks have turned strongly risk-averse as BTC price dropped to $22,600.

Bitcoin (BTC) lost the $28,000 support on June 12 following worsening macroeconomic conditions. The United States Treasury 2-year note yield closed on June 10 at 3.10%, its highest level since December 2007. This shows that traders are demanding higher rates to hold their debt instruments and expect inflation to remain a persistent challenge.

Louis S. Barnes, a senior loan officer at Cherry Creek, stated that as the United States reported its highest inflation in 40 years, the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) markets had zero buyers. Barnes added:

“Stocks are down 2% today [June 10], but would be down a hell of a lot more if considering what a full-stop to housing will mean.”

MicroStrategy and Celsius leverage use raised alarms

Bitcoin’s sell-off is adding more pressure to the cryptocurrency market and various media are discussing whether the U.S. Nasdaq-listed analytics and business intelligence company MicroStrategy and its $205 million Bitcoin-collateralized loan with Silvergate Bank will add to the current crypto collapse. The interest-only loan was issued on March 29, 2022, and secured by Bitcoin, which is held in a mutually authorized custodian’s account.

As stated by Microstrategy’s earnings call by chief financial officer Phong Le on May 3, if Bitcoin plummeted to $21,000, an additional amount of margin would be required. However, on May 10, Michael Saylor clarified that the entire 115,109 BTC position could be pledged, reducing the liquidation to $3,562.

Lastly, Crypto staking and lending platform Celsius suspended all network withdrawals on June 13. Speculations of insolvency quickly emerged as the project moved massive amounts of wBTC and Ether (ETH) to avoid liquidation at Aave (AAVE), a popular staking and lending platform.

Just realized people with open borrows at low collateral ratios on Celsius are having to choose between getting liquidated due to market crash or depositing more collateral into a service that has frozen withdrawals and is potentially insolvent.

Woof.

— Nick Neuman (, ) (@Nneuman) June 13, 2022

Celsius reported surpassing $20 billion in assets under management in August 2021, which was ideally more than enough to cause a doomsday scenario. While there is no way to determine how this liquidity crisis will unfold, the event caught Bitcoin’s investors at the worst possible moment.

Bitcoin futures metrics are near bearish territory

Bitcoin’s futures market premium, the primary derivatives metric, briefly moved to the negative area on June 13. The metric compares longer-term futures contracts and the traditional spot market price.

These fixed-calendar contracts usually trade at a slight premium, indicating that sellers request more money to withhold settlement for longer. As a result, the three-month futures should trade at a 4% to 10% annualized premium in healthy markets, a situation known as contango.

Whenever that indicator fades or turns negative (backwardation), it is an alarming red flag because it indicates that bearish sentiment is present.

*Bitcoin 3-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch*

While the futures premium had already been below the 4% threshold during the past nine weeks, it managed to sustain a moderate premium until June 13. While the current 1% premium might seem optimistic, it is the lowest level since April 30 and sits at the edge of a generalized bearish sentiment.

An unhealthy derivatives market is an ominous sign

Traders should analyze Bitcoin’s options pricing to further prove that the crypto market structure has deteriorated. For example, the 25% delta skew compares similar call (buy) and put (sell) options. This metric will turn positive when fear is prevalent because the protective put options premium is higher than similar risk call options.

The opposite holds when greed is the prevalent mood, which causes the 25% delta skew indicator to shift to the negative area.

*Deribit 30-day Bitcoin options 25% delta skew. Source: laevitas.ch*

Readings between negative 8% and positive 8% are usually deemed neutral, but the 26.6 peak on June 13 was the highest reading ever registered. This aversion to pricing downside risks is unusual even for March 2020, when oil futures plunged to the negative side for the first time in history and Bitcoin crashed below $4,000.

The main message from Bitcoin derivatives markets is that professional traders are unwilling to add leverage long positions despite the extremely low cost. Furthermore, the absurd price gap for put (sell) options pricing shows that the June 13 crash to $22,600 caught experienced arbitrage desks and market markers by surprise.

For those aiming to “buy the dip” or “catch a falling knife,” a clear bottom will only be formed once derivatives metrics imply that the market structure has improved. That will require the BTC futures’ premium to reestablish the 4% level and options markets to find a more balanced risk assessment as the 25% delta skew returns to 10% or lower.

Bitcoin bears have plenty of reasons to hold BTC price below $32,000

Regulatory pressure and macroeconomic uncertainty continue to pin traders’ sentiment and BTC price under $32,000.

Since May 10, the Bitcoin (BTC) chart shows a relatively tight range of price movement and the cryptocurrency has failed to break the $32,000 resistance on multiple occasions.

*BTC-USD 12-hour price at Coinbase. Source: TradingView*

The choppy trading partially reflects the uncertainty of the stock market as the S&P 500 Index ranged from 3,900 to 4,180 in the same period. On one side, there has been economic growth in the Eurozone where the gross domestic product grew 5.1% year over year. On the other, inflation continues to soar, reaching 9% in the United Kingdom.

Further adding to Bitcoin’s volatility was the digital assets regulatory framework proposal introduced to the U.S. Senate on June 7. The 69-page bipartisan bill is supported by Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming and Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York and it addresses the CFTC’s authority over applicable digital asset spot markets.

On June 3, South Korea’s Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) began an inquiry with 157 payment gateway services that work with digital assets. Previously, on May 24, South Korean officials opened an investigation against Do Kwon, the primary figure in the Terra incident.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) also broke out an investigation against Binance Holdings on June 6. Binance is the world’s largest crypto exchange in volume terms and the SEC is evaluating whether the BNB token initial coin offering violated securities rules.

On June 6, IRA Financial Trust, a platform providing self-directed digital asset retirement and pension accounts, filed a lawsuit against Gemini cryptocurrency exchange and claimed that a Feb. 8 breach led to a $36 million loss in crypto assets from customer accounts under Gemini’s custody.

Let’s look at Bitcoin’s futures data to understand how professional traders are positioned, including whales and market makers.

Derivatives metrics reflect investors’ bearish expectations

Traders should analyze Bitcoin futures market data to understand how professional traders are positioned. The quarterly contracts are experienced traders’ preferred instrument to avoid the perpetual futures’ fluctuating funding rate.

The basis indicator measures the difference between longer-term futures contracts and the current spot market levels. The Bitcoin futures annualized premium should run between 5% to 10% to compensate traders for “locking in” the money for two to three months until the contract expiry.

Bitcoin’s futures premium has been below 4% since April 12, a reading typical of bearish markets. Even more concerning is that the last time these professional traders were bullish was over six months ago when the metric surpassed the 10% threshold.

To exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument, traders must also analyze the Bitcoin options markets. The 25% delta skew is a telling sign for when Bitcoin market makers and arbitrage desks are overcharging for upside or downside protection.

During bullish markets, options investors give higher odds for a price pump, causing the skew indicator to move below negative 12%. On the other hand, a bear market’s generalized panic induces a positive 12% or higher skew.

The 30-day delta skew has ranged from 12.5% to 23% between June 1 and 7, which signals options traders are pricing higher odds of a bearish movement. Still, it shows a moderate sentiment improvement from the previous couple of weeks.

Cryptocurrency regulation and weak economic numbers are clearly weighing on investor sentiment and derivatives data shows professional Bitcoin traders avoiding leveraged long positions, plus they are reluctant to take downside-risk.

At the moment, it’s clear that bears are comfortable with setting $32,000 as a resistance level and repeat drops to the $28,200 level are likely to continue.

Bitfinex Bitcoin longs hit a record-high, but does that mean BTC has bottomed?

A key derivatives metric used by margin traders has hit a record-high, but there’s plenty of risk and a catch to consider.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been unable to close above $32,000 for the past 28 days, frustrating bulls and pushing the Fear and Greed index to bearish levels below 10. Even with June 6’s small boost, the tech-heavy Nasdaq stock market index is down 24% year-to-date.

Investors who keep a close eye on regulatory development were possibly scared after New York state made clear its intention to regulate the crypto industry, including Bitcoin mining.

On June 2, New York Attorney General Attorney Letitia James issued an investor alert against “risky cryptocurrency investments,” citing the assets’ volatility. According to Cointelegraph, the attorney general is convinced that crypto investments create “more pain than gain” for investors.

The New York State Senate approved a proof-of-work (PoW) mining ban on June 2 and the proposed controversial bill aims to prohibit any new mining operations in the state for the next two years and is now headed for the governor’s desk.

Interestingly, as all of this takes place, Bitcoin derivatives traders have never been so bullish, according to one metric.

Margin traders are extremely bullish

Margin trading allows investors to leverage their positions by borrowing stablecoins and using the proceeds to buy more cryptocurrency. When those savvy traders borrow Bitcoin, they use the coins as collateral for shorts, meaning they are betting on a price decrease.

That is why some analysts monitor the total lending amounts of Bitcoin and stablecoins to gain insight into whether investors are leaning bullish or bearish. Interestingly, Bitfinex margin traders entered their highest ever leverage long (bull) position on June 6.

*Bitfinex BTC margin longs (blue), in BTC contracts. Source: TradingView*

Bitfinex margin traders are known for creating position contracts of 20,000 BTC or higher in a very short time, indicating the participation of whales and large arbitrage desks.

Notice that the longs (bull) indicator vastly increased in mid-May and currently stands at 90,090 BTC contracts, its highest-ever registry. To understand how severe this movement was, one might compare it to the June–July 2021 previous all-time high of 54,500 BTC contracts in longs.

These traders hit the bullseye as their bullish positions peaked right as Bitcoin price bottomed. Over the subsequent months, they could sell those long (bull) contracts at a profit, reducing the number of open long positions (blue line).

Sometimes even whales get it wrong

One might assume that these whales and arbitrage desks trading at Bitfinex margin markets have better timing (or knowledge), and thus it makes sense to follow their steps. However, if we analyze the same metric for 2019 and 2020, a completely different scenario emerges.

There were three hikes in the number of Bitfinex BTC margin longs this time around. The first instance happened between mid-November and mid-December 2019 after the indicator jumped from 25,200 BTC to 47,600 BTC longs. However, over the next month, the Bitcoin price failed to break above $8,300 and these traders closed their positions with minimal gains.

The next wave of BTC longs took place in early-February 2020, but those traders were caught by surprise after the Bitcoin price failed to break $10,500, forcing them to close their margin positions at a considerable loss.

Bitfinex BTC margin longs increased from 22,100 to 35,700 contracts in late-July 2020. The movement coincided with the price rally to $47,000, so the early entrants might have scored some profit, but most of the investors exited their margin longs with no gains.

Clever margin longs might be right 75% the time, but there’s a catch

To put things in perspective, over the previous four instances where BTC margin longs (bulls) significantly increased, investors had one profitable trade, two that were mostly neutral and one considerable loss.

Some might say odds still favor those tracking the indicator, but one must remember that whales and arbitrage desks could easily crash the market when closing their positions. In such cases, those following the strategy might arrive late to the party and come out at a loss.

Will the current Bitfinex margin longs increase result in extreme profits? It might depend on how traditional markets, mainly tech stocks, perform over the next couple of weeks.

3 reasons why Ethereum price is pinned below $2,000

ETH price is meeting strong resistance at the $2,000 level and these trading metrics explain why.

Ether’s (ETH) market structure continues to be bearish despite the failed attempt to break the descending channel resistance at $2,000 on May 31. This three-week-long price formation could mean that an eventual retest of the $1,700 support is underway.

*Ether/USD 4-hour price at Bitstamp. Source: TradingView*

On the non-crypto side, a number of equities-related factors are translating to negative sentiment in the crypto market. This week Microsoft (MSFT) lowered its profit and revenue outlook, citing challenging macroeconomic conditions. The U.S. Federal Reserve signalled in its periodic “Beige Book” that economic activity may have cooled in some parts of the country and the Fed is about to reduce its $9 trillion asset portfolio to combat persistent inflation.

On the bright side, an institutional investor survey published by The Economist magazine showed that 85% of the respondents agreed that open-source cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) or Ether (ETH) are useful as diversifiers in portfolio or treasury accounts.

From the macroeconomic perspective, investors are still risk-averse, which could translate to a reduced appetite for cryptocurrencies.

Ethereum still has a mountain to climb

The Ethereum network’s total value locked (TVL), the total amount of assets deposited to the network, has dropped by 5.5% since Ether began its downtrend three weeks ago.

*Ethereum network total value locked, ETH. Source: Defi Llama*

The network’s TVL peaked at 28.7 billion Ether on May 10 and currently stands at 27.1 million. Decentralized finance (DeFi) deposits were deeply impacted by the USD Terra (UST) — now known as TerraUSD Classic (USTC) — stablecoin collapse on May 10. All things considered, the indicator shows a moderate decrease, which is somewhat expected after such an unprecedented event.

To understand how professional traders are positioned, let’s look at Ether’s futures market data. Quarterly futures are whales and arbitrage desks’ preferred instruments due to their lack of a fluctuating funding rate.

These fixed-month contracts usually trade at a 5% to 12% premium to spot markets, indicating that sellers request more money to withhold settlement longer. This situation is also common in traditional assets such as stocks and commodities.

*Ether futures 3-month annualized premium. Source: Laevitas*

Over the past month, Ether’s futures contracts premium has remained near 3%, which is below the 5% neutral-market threshold. The lack of leverage demand from buyers is evident as the current 2.5% basis indicator remains depressed despite Ether’s 24% negative performance in three weeks.

Fear a global downturn continues to impact crypto prices

Ether’s crash to $1,700 on May 27 drained any leftover bullish sentiment and, more importantly, caused $235 million in leverage long futures contract liquidations. Even though Ether price tested the $2,000 resistance on May 31, there is no evidence of strength from derivatives or DeFi deposits, according to the TVL metric.

As investors’ focus remains on traditional markets and the impacts of global macroeconomic worsening conditions, there is little hope for a sustainable Ether price decoupling to the upside.