Leverage

Bitcoin is pinned below $20K as the macro climate stifles hope for a sustainable BTC bull run

BTC bulls have a chance to profit from this week’s $410 million options expiry, but the factors pulling down equities markets reduce the chance of Bitcoin changing its trend.

Bitcoin (BTC) crashed below $19,000 on Sept. 6, driving the price to its lowest level in 80 days. The movement not only completely erased the entirety of the 32% gains accrued from July until Aug. 15, it also wiped out $246 million worth of leverage long (buy) futures contracts.

Bitcoin price is down for the year but it’s important to compare its price action against other assets. Oil prices are currently down 23.5% since July, Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has dropped 36.4% in 30 days and Moderna (MRNA), a pharmaceutical and biotechnology company, is down 30.4% in the same period.

Inflationary pressure and fear of a global recession have driven investors away from riskier assets. By seeking shelter in cash positions, mainly in the dollar itself, this protective movement has caused the U.S. Treasuries’ 5-year yield to reach 3.38%, nearing its highest level in 15 years. By demanding a loftier premium to hold government debt, investors are signaling a lack of confidence in the current inflation controls.

Data released on Sept. 7 shows that China’s exports grew 7.1% in August from a year earlier, after increasing by 18% in July. Furthermore, Germany’s industrial orders data on Sept. 6 showed a 13.6% contraction in July versus the previous year. Thus, until there’s some decoupling from traditional markets, there’s not much hope for a sustainable Bitcoin bull run.

Bears were overly optimistic

The open interest for the Sept. 9 options expiry is $410 million, but the actual figure will be lower since bears became too overconfident. These traders were not expecting $18,700 to hold because their bets targeted $18,500 and below.

*Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Sept. 9. Source: CoinGlass*

The 0.77 call-to-put ratio reflects the imbalance between the $180 million call (buy) open interest and the $230 million put (sell) options. Currently, Bitcoin stands near $18,900, meaning most bets from both sides will likely become worthless.

If Bitcoin’s price remains below $20,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Sept. 9, only $13 million worth of these call (buy) options will be available. This difference happens because the right to buy Bitcoin at $20,000 is useless if BTC trades below that level on expiry.

Bears aim for $18,000 to secure a $90 million profit

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on Sept. 9 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

Between $17,000 and $18,000: 0 calls vs. 4,300 puts. Bears completely dominate, profiting $130 million.
Between $18,000 and $19,000: 0 calls vs. 5,050 puts. The net result favors the put (bear) instruments by $90 million.
Between $19,000 and $20,000: 700 calls vs. 1,900 puts. The net result favors the put (bear) instruments by $50 million.
Between $20,000 and $21,000: 2,050 calls vs. 2,200 puts. The net result is balanced between bulls and bears.

This crude estimate considers the put options used in bearish bets and the call options exclusively in neutral-to-bullish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

For example, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining positive exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price, but unfortunately, there’s no easy way to estimate this effect.

Bulls have until Sept. 9 to ease their pain

Bitcoin bulls need to push the price above $20,000 on Sept. 9 to avoid a potential $130 million loss. On the other hand, the bears’ best-case scenario requires a slight push below $18,000 to maximize their gains.

Bitcoin bulls just had $246 million leverage long positions liquidated in two days, so they might have less margin required to drive the price higher. In other words, bears have a head start to peg BTC below $19,000 ahead of the weekly options expiry.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Hawkish Fed comments and Bitcoin derivatives data point to further BTC downside

BTC and stocks sold-off after comments from the Federal Reserve re-emphasized the Fed’s commitment to lowering high inflation in the United States.

A $750 pump on Aug. 26 took Bitcoin (BTC) from $21,120 to $21,870 in less than two hours. However, the movement was completely erased after comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the bank’s commitment to contain inflation by tightening the economy. Following Powell’s speech, BTC price dropped as low as $20,700.

*Bitcoin/USD 30-min price. Source: TradingView*

At Jackson Hole, Powell specifically mentioned that “the historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy.” Right after those remarks, the U.S. stock market indexes reacted negatively, with the S&P 500 dropping 2.2% within the hour.

On the Bitcoin chart, the affable “Bart candle,” a reference to the shape of Bart Simpson’s head, and a descriptor of BTC’s up and down price action, surfaced. Outside of these unpredictable technical analysis indicators, there are other indicators that pointed to Bitcon’s broader neutral-to-bearish sentiment.

Regulators up the pace on crypto legislation

Newsflow for cryptocurrencies has been negative for quite some time and this is also weighing on investor sentiment. On Aug. 24, the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) issued cease and desist letters to five companies for allegedly making false representations about deposit insurance related to cryptocurrencies, including FTX US.

On Aug. 25, India-based crypto exchange CoinSwitch had its premises searched by Anti-Money Laundering agents over alleged violations of forex laws. Launched in India in 2020, CoinSwitch successfully raised capital from Coinbase Ventures, Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia and Tiger Global.

Lastly, on Aug. 26, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission postponed a decision for a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) by global investment firm VanEck. Even though the approval odds were remote, it reinforced the anti-crypto sentiment from the regulator.

Consequently, crypto investors are faced with lingering uncertainty despite the seemingly helpful inflationary scenario, which should favor supply capped assets. For this reason, analyzing crypto derivatives is essential to understanding whether investors have been pricing higher odds of a downturn.

Pro traders were neutral-to-bearish ahead of the dump

Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets. Still, they are professional traders’ preferred instruments because they prevent the perpetual fluctuation of funding rates that often occurs in a contract.

Bitcoin 3-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas

In healthy markets, the indicator should trade at a 4% to 8% annualized premium to cover costs and associated risks. Yet, that has not been the case because the Bitcoin futures premium remained below 1.8% the entire time. This data reflects professional traders’ unwillingness to add leveraged long (bull) positions.

One must also analyze the Bitcoin options markets to exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument. For example, the 25% delta skew is a telling sign when market makers and arbitrage desks are overcharging for upside or downside protection.

Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas

In bear markets, options investors give higher odds for a price dump, causing the skew indicator to rise above 12%. The 30-day delta skew had been ranging near the neutral-to-bearish threshold since Aug. 22, signaling options traders were less inclined to offer downside protection.

These two derivatives metrics suggest that the Bitcoin price dump on Aug. 26 might have followed the traditional stock market performance, but crypto traders were definitely not expecting a positive move.

Derivatives data leaves no room for bullish interpretations because the sentiment worsened after Powell’s comments and they further indicate weakening market conditions.

Monthly Ethereum options data suggests $2K will remain an elusive target

On August 26, $1.27 billion in ETH options expire and data signals that the price is likely to stay pinned under $2,000 until the Merge.

Since failing to close above the $2,000 mark, Ether (ETH) price has faced a steep 16.8% correction, but this was not enough to give bears an edge in the August $1.27 billion monthly options expiry.

*Ether USD price index, 12-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

Currently, there are mixed feelings about the network’s upcoming change to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus network and analysts like @DWhitmanBTC believe the potential benefits of PoS do not supersede the absence of a supply cap and multiple changes in the monetary policy over time.

uLtRaSoUnD mOnEy

Is #Ethereum even money?

If so, what’s the supply limit? What’s the monetary policy?

How can anyone trust that it won’t be changed?

— Dick Whitmanaut ∞/21M (@DWhitmanBTC) August 24, 2022

Regardless of the long-term impact, Ether price was positively impacted by the tentative Merge migration date announcement from a July 14 Ethereum developers call . Influencer and technical analyst Crypto Rover said that Ether would “drop so hard on the Merge day,” as a result of traders unwinding their positions.

I think #Ethereum will drop so hard on the Merge day.

The whole anticipation is getting not bought up on the spot market but on the futures market.

Be warned.

— Crypto Rover (@rovercrc) August 23, 2022

One thing is for sure, leveraged Ether buyers were not expecting the steep correction on Aug. 18 and data from Coinglass shows the move liquidated $208 million at derivatives exchanges.

Bears placed their bets below $1,600

The open interest for Ether’s July monthly options expiry is $1.27 billion, but the actual figure will be lower since bears were overly-optimistic after ETH traded below $1,600 between Aug. 20 and 22. Breaking above that resistance surprised bears because only 17% of the put (sell) options for Aug. 26 have been placed above that price level.

*Ether options aggregate open interest for Aug. 26. Source: Coinglass*

The 1.18 call-to-put ratio shows the dominance of the $685 million call (buy) open interest against the $585 million put (sell) options. Nevertheless, as Ether stands near $1,650, most of these bearish bets will become worthless.

If Ether’s price remains above $1,600 at 8:00 am UTC on Aug. 26, only $95 million put (sell) options will be available. This difference happens because a right to sell Ether at $1,600 or lower is worthless if Ether trades above that level on expiry.

Bulls completely dominate the August expiry

Below are the three most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on Aug. 26 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

Between $1,500 and $1,600: 108,200 calls vs. 103,900 puts. The net result is balanced between bulls and bears.
Between $1,600 and $1,700: 45,900 calls vs. 90,000 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $150 million.
Between $1,700 and $1,800: 192,700 calls vs. 26,000 puts. Bulls’ advantage increases to $290 million.

For example, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining positive exposure to Ether above a specific price, but unfortunately, there’s no easy way to estimate this effect.

Bears could avoid a $150 million loss

Ether bulls need to sustain the price above $1,600 on Aug. 26 to secure a $150 million profit. On the other hand, the bears’ best-case scenario requires a push below $1,600 to balance the scales and call it a draw.

Considering the brutal $270 million leverage long (buy) positions liquidated on Aug. 18 and 19, bulls should have less margin to pressure ETH price higher. With that said, bulls are unlikely to have the means to drive ETH above $1,700 ahead of the August monthly options expiry.

3 reasons why Bitcoin’s drop to $21K and the market-wide sell-off could be worse than you think

There are signs of further turbulence ahead. The absence of a BTC futures premium, $470 million in liquidations and excessive stablecoin lending all point toward new yearly lows.

On Friday, August 19, the total crypto market capitalization dropped by 9.1%, but more importantly, the all-important $1 trillion psychological support was tapped. The market’s latest venture below this just three weeks ago, meaning investors were pretty confident that the $780 billion total market-cap low on June 18 was a mere distant memory.

Regulatory uncertainty increased on Aug. 17 after the United States House Committee on Energy and Commerce announced that they were “deeply concerned” that proof-of-work mining could increase demand for fossil fuels. As a result, U.S. lawmakers requested the crypto mining companies to provide information on energy consumption and average costs.

Typically, sell-offs have a greater impact on cryptocurrencies outside of the top 5 assets by market capitalization, but today’s correction presented losses ranging from 7% to 14% across the board. Bitcoin (BTC) saw a 9.7% loss as it tested $21,260 and Ether (ETH) presented a 10.6% drop at its $1,675 intraday low.

Some analysts might suggest that harsh daily corrections like the one seen today is a norm rather than an exception considering the asset’s 67% annualized volatility. Case in point, today’s intraday drop in the total market capitalization exceeded 9% in 19 days over the past 365, but some aggravants are causing this current correction to stand out.

The BTC Futures premium vanished

The fixed-month futures contracts usually trade at a slight premium to regular spot markets because sellers demand more money to withhold settlement for longer. Technically known as “contango,” this situation is not exclusive to crypto assets.

In healthy markets, futures should trade at a 4% to 8% annualized premium, which is enough to compensate for the risks plus the cost of capital.

According to the OKX and Deribit Bitcoin futures premium, the 9.7% negative swing on BTC caused investors to eliminate any optimism using derivatives instruments. When the indicator flips to the negative area, trading in “backwardation,” it typically means there is much higher demand from leveraged shorts who are betting on further downside.

Leverage buyers’ liquidations exceeded $470 million

Futures contracts are a relatively low-cost and easy instrument that allows the use of leverage. The danger of using them lies in liquidation, meaning the investor’s margin deposit becomes insufficient to cover their positions. In these cases, the exchange’s automatic deleveraging mechanism kicks in and sells the crypto used as collateral to reduce the exposure.

*Aggregate crypto 24-hour liquidations, USD. Source: Coinglass*

A trader might increase their gains by 10x using leverage, but if the asset drops 9% from their entry point, the position is terminated. The derivatives exchange will proceed to sell the collateral, creating a negative loop known as a cascading liquidation. As depicted above, the Aug. 19 sell-off presented the highest number of buyers being forced into selling since June 12.

Margin traders were excessively bullish and destroyed

Margin trading allows investors to borrow cryptocurrency to leverage their trading position and potentially increase their returns. As an example, a trader could buy Bitcoin by borrowing Tether (USDT), thus increasing their crypto exposure. On the other hand, borrowing Bitcoin can only be used to short it.

Unlike futures contracts, the balance between margin longs and shorts isn’t necessarily matched. When the margin lending ratio is high, it indicates that the market is bullish—the opposite, a low ratio, signals that the market is bearish.

OKX USDT/BTC margin lending ratio. Source: OKX

Crypto traders are known for being bullish, which is understandable considering the adoption potential and fast-growing use cases like decentralized finance (DeFi) and the perception that certain cryptocurrencies provide protection against USD inflation. A margin lending rate of 17x higher favors stablecoins is not normal and indicates excessive confidence from leverage buyers.

These three derivatives metrics show traders were definitely not expecting the entire crypto market to correct as sharply as today, nor for the total market capitalization to retest the $1 trillion support. This renewed loss of confidence might cause bulls to further reduce their leverage positions and possibly trigger new lows in the coming weeks..

Bitcoin traders anticipate new yearly lows after BTC’s $25K rejection — Data disagrees

Should traders expect further downside after BTC failed to hold above $25,000?

Bitcoin (BTC) showed weakness on Aug. 15, posting a 5% loss after testing the $25,000 resistance. The move liquidated over $150 million worth of leverage long positions and has led some traders to predict a move back toward the yearly low in the $18,000 range.

The price action coincided with worsening conditions for tech stocks, including Chinese giant Tencent, which is expected to post its first-ever quarterly revenue decline. According to analysts, the Chinese gaming and social media conglomerate is expected to post quarterly earnings around $19.5 billion, which is 4% lower than the previous year.

Moreover, on Aug. 16, Citi investment bank slashed Zoom Video Communications (ZM) recommendation to sell, adding that the stock is “high risk.” Analysts explained that a challenging post-COVID dynamic, plus additional competition from Microsoft Teams, potentially caused a 20% drop in ZM shares.

The overall bearish sentiment continues to plague crypto investors, a movement described by influencer and trader @ChrisBTCbull, who mentioned that a simple rejection at $25,000 caused traders to post sub-$17,000 targets.

After #Bitcoin didn’t break price through $25000, all CT started writing about the price again $16k-17k

I think it’s time to open long#trading

— Chris (@ChrisBTCbull) August 16, 2022

Margin traders remain bullish despite the $25,000 rejection

Monitoring margin and options markets provides excellent insights into understanding how professional traders are positioned. For instance, a negative read would happen if whales and market makers reduced their exposure as BTC approached the $25,000 resistance.

Margin trading allows investors to borrow cryptocurrency to leverage their trading position, increasing returns. For example, one can increase exposure by borrowing stablecoins to buy an additional Bitcoin position.

On the other hand, Bitcoin borrowers can only short the cryptocurrency as they bet on its price declining. Unlike futures contracts, the balance between margin longs and shorts isn’t always matched.

The above chart shows that OKX traders’ margin lending ratio has remained relatively stable near 14 while Bitcoin price jumped 6.3% in two days only to be rejected after hitting the $25,200 resistance.

Furthermore, the metric remains bullish by favoring stablecoin borrowing by a wide margin. As a result, pro traders have been holding their bullish positions, and no additional bearish margin trades emerged as Bitcoin retraced 5.5% on Aug. 16.

Option markets hold a neutral stance

There’s uncertainty about whether Bitcoin will make another run toward the $25,000 resistance but the 25% delta skew is a telling sign whenever arbitrage desks and market makers overcharge for upside or downside protection.

The indicator compares similar call (buy) and put (sell) options and will turn positive when fear is prevalent because the protective put options premium is higher than risk call options.

The skew indicator will move above 10% if traders fear a Bitcoin price crash. On the other hand, generalized excitement reflects a negative 10% skew.

*Bitcoin 30-day options show 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas.ch*

As displayed above, the 25% delta skew has barely moved since Aug. 11, oscillating between 5% and 7% most of the time. This range is considered neutral because options traders are pricing a similar risk of unexpected pumps or dumps.

If pro traders entered a “fear” sentiment, this metric would have moved above 10%, reflecting a lack of interest in offering downside protection.

Despite the neutral Bitcoin options indicator, the OKX margin lending rate showed whales and market makers maintaining their bullish bets after a 5.5% BTC price decline on Aug. 16. For this reason, investors should expect another retest of the $25,000 resistance as soon as the global macroeconomic conditions improve.

Traders flinch after Ethereum price rejects at $2,000

Data shows pro traders are slightly skeptical of the strength of Ethereum’s rally after ETH price sold off at the $2,000 resistance.

Ether (ETH) rejected the $2,000 resistance on Aug. 14, but the solid 82.8% gain since the rising wedge formation started on July 13 certainly seems like a victory for the bull market. Undoubtedly, the “ultrasound money” dream gets closer as the network expects the Merge transaction to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus network on Sept. 16.

*Ether price index in USD, 12-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

Some critics point out that the transition out of proof-of-work (PoW) mining has been delayed for years and that the Merge itself does not address the scalability issue. The network’s migration to parallel processing, also known as sharding, is expected to happen later in 2023 or early 2024.

As for the Ether bulls, the EIP-1559 burn mechanism introduced in August 2021 was essential to drive ETH to scarcity, as crypto analyst and influencer Kris Kay illustrates:

~ 11% of all $ETH supply now staked.

~ 2% of all $ETH supply now burned

~ 100% of $ETH is ultra-sound money

+=

few

— Kris Kay | DeFi Donut (@thekriskay) August 15, 2022

The highly anticipated move to the Ethereum Beacon Chain enjoyed a lot of criticism, despite eliminating the need to support the expensive energy-intensive mining activities. Below, DrBitcoinMD highlights the impossibility for ETH stakers to withdraw their coins, creating an unsustainable temporary offer-side reduction.

Anyone still putting their faith behind the gangly Russian pseudointellectual and the Ethereum ponzi deserves what’s coming to them. pic.twitter.com/gjxHXdzuSK

— Doc (@DrBitcoinMD) August 11, 2022

Undoubtedly, the decreased amount of coins available for sale caused a supply shock, especially after the 82.8% rally as Ether has recently undergone. Still, these investors knew the risks of Eth2 staking and no promises were made for instant transfers post-Merge.

Option markets reflect dubious sentiment

Investors should look at Ether’s derivatives markets data to understand how whales and arbitrage desks are positioned. The 25% delta skew is a telling sign whenever traders overcharge for upside or downside protection.

If those market participants feared an Ether price crash, the skew indicator would move above 12%. On the other hand, generalized excitement reflects a negative 12% skew.

*Ether 30-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas.ch*

The skew indicator remained neutral since Ether initiated the rally, even as it tested the $2,000 resistance on Aug. 14. The absence of improvement in the market sentiment is slightly concerning because ETH option traders are currently assessing similar upside and downside price movement risks.

Meanwhile, the long-to-short data shows low confidence at the $2,000 level. This metric excludes externalities that might have solely impacted the options markets. It also gathers data from exchange clients’ positions on the spot, perpetual and quarterly futures contracts, thus better informing on how professional traders are positioned.

There are occasional methodological discrepancies between different exchanges, so readers should monitor changes instead of absolute figures.

*Exchanges’ top traders Ether long-to-short ratio. Source: Coinglass*

Even though Ether has rallied 18% from Aug. 4 to Aug. 15, professional traders slightly reduced their leverage long positions, according to the long-to-short indicator. For instance, the Binance traders’ ratio improved somewhat from the 1.16 start but finished the period below its starting level near 1.12.

Meanwhile, Huobi displayed a modest decrease in its long-to-short ratio, as the indicator moved from 0.98 to the current 0.96 in eleven days. Lastly, the metric peaked at 1.70 for the OKX exchange but only slightly increased from 1.46 on Aug. 4 to 1.52 on Aug. 15. Thus, on average, traders were not confident enough to keep their leverage bullish positions.

There hasn’t been a significant change in whales’ and market makers’ leverage positions despite Ether’s 18% gains since Aug. 4. If options traders are pricing similar risks for Ether’s upside and downside moves, there is likely a reason for this. For instance, strong backing of the proof-of-work fork would pressure ETH.

One thing is for sure, at the moment, professional traders aren’t confident that the $2,000 resistance will be easily broken.

Bitcoin struggles to flip $24K to support, but data shows pro traders stacking sats

BTC futures and stablecoin margin data show whales holding steady even as Bitcoin price failed to hold above $24,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) rallied on the back of the United States Federal Reserve’s decision to hike interest rates on July 27. Investors interpreted Federal Reserve chairman Jeremy Powell’s statement as more dovish than the previous FOMC committee meeting, suggesting that the worst moment of tight economic policies is behind us.

Another positive news for risk assets came from the U.S. personal consumption expenditures price (PCE) index, which rose 6.8% in June. The move was the biggest since January 1982, reducing incentives for fixed income investments. The Federal Reserve focuses on the PCE due to its broader measure of inflation pressures, measuring the price changes of goods and services consumed by the general public.

Additional positive news came from Amazon after the e-commerce giant reported that its quarterly financial results beat the $119.5 billion estimated revenue by 1.4%. Moreover, Apple released its 2Q results on the same day, matching analyst revenue estimates, while presenting earnings 3.4% above the market consensus.

Top traders have increased their bullish bets

Exchange-provided data highlights traders’ long-to-short net positioning. By analyzing every client’s position on the spot, perpetual and futures contracts, one can better understand whether professional traders are leaning bullish or bearish.

There are occasional discrepancies in the methodologies between different exchanges, so viewers should monitor changes instead of absolute figures.

*Exchanges top traders Bitcoin long-to-short ratio. Source: Coinglass*

Despite Bitcoin’s 14% correction from July 20 to July 26, top traders on Binance, Huobi and OKEx have increased their leverage longs. To be more precise, Binance was the only exchange facing a modest reduction in the top traders’ long-to-short ratio, moving from 1.22 to 1.20.

However, this impact was more than compensated by OKEx traders increasing their bullish bets from 0.66 to 1.17 in six days. The absence of panic selling after Bitcoin failed to break the $24,000 support on July 20 should be interpreted as bullish.

Had buyers been using excessive leverage or distrustful of a potential upside, the price movement would have caused much grea damage to the long-to-short ratio.

Margin traders are unwilling to place bearish bets

Margin trading allows investors to borrow cryptocurrency to leverage their trading position, therefore increasing the returns. For example, one can buy Bitcoin by borrowing Tether (USDT), thus increasing their crypto exposure. On the other hand, borrowing Bitcoin can only be used to short it—betting on the price decrease.

*OKX USDT/BTC margin lending ratio. Source: OKEx*

The chart above shows that investors’ morale bottomed on July 21 as the ratio reached its lowest level in four months at 8.6. From that point onward, OKX traders presented less demand to borrow Bitcoin, exclusively used to bet on the price downtrend. The ratio currently stands at 13.8, which leans bullish in absolute terms as it favors stablecoin borrowing by a wide margin.

Derivatives data shows no stress from pro traders even as Bitcoin traded below $21,000 on July 26. Unlike retail traders, these experienced whales know when to hold on to their conviction and this attitude was clearly reflected in the healthy derivatives data. The data suggests that traders who expect a strong market correction if Bitcoin fails to break the $24,000 resistance will be disappointed.

$1.26B in Ethereum options expire on Friday and bulls are ready to push ETH price higher

Ethereum network developers confirmed September as the date of the upcoming Merge, a move which prompted traders to flip long on ETH.

Ether’s (ETH) 53% rally between July 13 and 18 gave bulls an edge in July’s $1.26 billion monthly options expiry. The move happened as Ethereum developers set a tentative date for the “Merge,” a transition out of the burdensome proof-of-work (PoW) mining mechanism .

According to some analysts, by removing the additional ETH issuing used to finance the energy cost required on traditional mining consensus, Ether could finally achieve the “ultra-sound money” status.

On Beacon Chain, the issuance will be around 1,600 ETH per day decreasing the inflation significantly from 13,000 ETH per day on PoW.

Merge sets effects on monetary policies of Ethereum to become Ultrasound money.

(10/15) pic.twitter.com/9hWjhuGpNK

— Akshay Jain (@akshayjain865) July 25, 2022

Whether or not sound monetary policy revolves around constantly changing the issuing and burning rules remains an open question, but there’s no doubt that the Ethereum developers’ video call on July 14 helped to catapult ETH price.

On July 26, a sudden dramatic spike in Ethereum network active addresses raised multiple speculations about whether Ether is targeting its previous all-time high. Analytics firm Santiment reported that the number of 24-hour daily active addresses reached 1.06 million, breaking the previous 718,000 high set back in 2018. Theories such as “Binance doing a maintenance sweep” emerged, but nothing has been confirmed yet.

The main victims of Ether’s impressive 20% recovery on July 27 were leveraged bearish traders (shorts) who faced $335 million in aggregate liquidations at derivatives exchanges, according to data from Coinglass.

Bears placed their bets below $1,600

The open interest for Ether’s July monthly options expiry is $1.27 billion, but the actual figure will be lower since bears were overly-optimistic. These traders got too comfortable after ETH stood below $1,300 between June 13 and 16.

The pump above $1,500 on July 27 surprised bears because only 17% of the put (sell) options for July 29 have been placed above that price level.

*Ether options aggregate open interest for July 29. Source: CoinGlass*

The 1.39 call-to-put ratio shows the dominance of the $730 million call (buy) open interest against the $530 million put (sell) options. Nevertheless, as Ether stands near $1,600, most bearish bets will likely become worthless.

If Ether’s price remains above $1,500 at 8:00 am UTC on July 29, only $80 million put (sell) options will be available. This difference happens because a right to sell Ether at $1,500 or lower is worthless if Ether trades above that level on expiry.

Bulls are comfortable even below $1,600

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on July 29 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

Between $1,400 and $1,500: 120,400 calls vs. 80,400 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $60 million.
Between $1,500 and $1,600: 160,500 calls vs. 55,000 puts. The net result favors bulls by $160 million.
Between $1,600 and $1,700: 187,100 calls vs. 43,400 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $230 million.
Between $1,700 and $1,800: 220,800 calls vs. 40,000 puts. Bulls’ advantage increases to $310 million.

For example, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining positive exposure to Ether above a specific price, but unfortunately, there’s no easy way to estimate this effect.

Bears should throw in the towel and focus on the August expiry

Ether bulls need to sustain the price above $1,600 on July 29 to secure a decent $230 million profit. On the other hand, the bears’ best case scenario requires a push below $1,500 to reduce the damage to $60 million.

Considering the brutal $330 million leverage short positions liquidated on July 26 and 27, bears should have less margin to pressure ETH price lower. With this said, bulls are better positioned to continue driving ETH higher after the July 29 monthly options expiry.

Pro Bitcoin traders are uncomfortable with bullish positions

BTC derivatives used by whales and market makers do not support a continuous price recovery above $24,000.

The previous $19,000 Bitcoin (BTC) support level becomes more distant after the 22.5% gain in nine days. However, little optimism has been instilled as the impact of the Three Arrows Capital (3AC), Voyager, Babel Finance and Celsius crises remain uncertain. Moreover, the contagion has claimed yet another victim after Thai crypto exchange Zipmex halted withdrawals on July 20.

*Bitcoin/USD 1-day price. Source: TradingView*

Bulls’ hopes depend on the $23,000 support strengthening as time goes by, but derivatives metrics show professional traders are still highly skeptical of continuous recovery.

Macroeconomic headwinds favor scarce assets

Some analysts attribute the crypto market strength to China’s lower-than-expected gross domestic product data, causing investors to expect further expansionary measures by policymakers. China’s economy expanded 0.4% in the second quarter versus the previous year, as the country continued to struggle with self-imposed restrictions to curb another outbreak of COVID-19 infections, according to CNBC.

The United Kingdom’s 9.4% inflation in June marked a 40-year high, and to supposedly aid the population, Chancellor of the Exchequer Nadhim Zahawi announced a $44.5 billion (GBP 37 billion) assistance package for vulnerable families.

Under these circumstances, Bitcoin reversed its downtrend as policymakers scrambled to solve the seemingly impossible problem of slowing economies amid ever-increasing government debt.

However, the cryptocurrency sector faces its own issues, including regulatory uncertainties. For instance, on July 21, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) labeled nine tokens as “crypto asset securities,” thus not only falling under the regulatory body’s purview but liable for having failed to register with it.

Expressly, the SEC referred to Powerledger (POWR), Kromatika (KROM), DFX Finance (DFX), Amp (AMP), Rally (RLY), Rari Governance Token (RGT), DerivaDAO (DDX), LCX, and XYO. The regulator brought charges against a former Coinbase product manager for “insider trading” after they allegedly used non-public information for personal benefit.

Currently, Bitcoin investors face too much uncertainty despite the seemingly helpful macroeconomic backdrop, which should favor scarce assets such as BTC. For this reason, an analysis of derivatives data is valuable in understanding whether investors are pricing higher odds of a downturn.

Pro traders remain skeptical of price recovery

These fixed-month contracts usually trade at a slight premium to spot markets because investors demand more money to withhold the settlement. But this situation is not exclusive to crypto markets, so futures should trade at a 4% to 10% annualized premium in healthy markets.

The Bitcoin’s futures premium flirted with the negative area in mid-June, something is typically seen during extremely bearish periods. The mere 1% basis rate, or annualized premium, reflects professional traders’ unwillingness to create leverage long (bull) positions. Investors remain skeptical of the price recovery despite the low cost of opening a bullish trade.

In bear markets, options investors give higher odds for a price dump, causing the skew indicator to rise above 12%, while the opposite holds true during bullish markets.

The 30-day delta skew peaked at 21% on July 14 as Bitcoin struggled to break the $20,000 resistance. The higher the indicator, the less inclined options traders are to offer downside protection.

More recently, the indicator moved below the 12% threshold, entering a neutral area, and no longer sitting at the levels reflecting extreme aversion. Consequently, options markets currently display a balanced risk assessment between a bull run and another re-test of the $20,000 area.

Some metrics suggest that the Bitcoin cycle bottom is behind us, but until traders have a better view of the regulatory outlook and centralized crypto service providers’ liquidity as the Three Arrows Capital crisis unfolds, the odds of breaking above $24,000 remain uncertain.

3AC founders reveal ties to Terra founder, blame overconfidence for collapse

Su Zhu revealed the 3AC team had close ties to Terra co-founder Do Kwon, which made them overlook several red flags with the project that eventually led to a multi-million dollar loss for the hedge fund.

The founders of tainted crypto hedge fund Three Arrow Capital (3AC), which filed for bankruptcy in the first week of July, have finally resurfaced after five weeks of no known whereabouts.

In an interview with Bloomberg, the crypto hedge fund’s two founders Su Zhu and Kyle Davies admitted that the overconfidence born out of a multiyear bull market, where lenders saw their value swell by virtue of financing firms like 3AC, led to a series of bad decisions that should have been avoided.

Zhu also revealed their closeness to Terra founder Do Kwon and claimed they believed the firm was going to do big things. He admitted that the firm’s closeness to Terra made them overlook certain red flags about the firm, which eventually led to their $500 million worth of investment going to zero. Zhu explained:

“If we could have seen that, you know, that this was now like, potentially like attackable in some ways, and that it had grown too, you know, too big, too fast.”

The two founders claimed that the LUNA (now known as Luna Classic) investment surely was a setback for the firm. Still, the real issue began when Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $20,000, and it became impossible for the firm to access additional credit. Zhu claimed that even after LUNA’s collapse, business was as usual, explaining:

“Throughout that period, we continued to do business as usual. But then yeah, after that day, when, you know, Bitcoin went from $30,000 to $20,000, you know, that, that was extremely painful for us. And that was in, that ended up being kind of the nail in the coffin.”

When inquired of their whereabouts and why they have been in hiding, the founders blamed a series of death threats as their reason for going underground. The duo didn’t reveal their current whereabouts, but said they were moving to Dubai.

The founders denied any allegations of pulling out money before 3AC went bankrupt and also cleared the air around the $50 million yacht that was disclosed in the recently filed court case. Zhu said that the boat “was bought over a year ago and commissioned to be built and to be used in Europe,” adding that the yacht “has a full money trail.”