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A ‘snap back’ to $20K? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin sees split opinions as major $25,000 resistance combines with early signs that all is not well with the BTC price rally.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the last week of February in a volatile mood as a crucial area of resistance fails to break.

After a classic “fakeout” during low-volume weekend trading, BTC/USD is back below $25,000, with bulls still lacking momentum.

The largest cryptocurrency saw what looked like the next stage of its 2023 recovery last week, making swift gains and even tapping new six-month highs.

The good times were not to continue, however, and February’s progress has been much slower and hard won than January’s 40% gains. How will the rest of the month pan out?

A critical monthly close is due, along with a potential external price trigger in the form of minutes from the United States Federal Reserve.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin network fundamentals are due to leap to yet another all-time high, with miners in full recovery mode.

Cointelegraph takes a look at these factors and more in an overview of BTC price perspectives for the final week of February.

RSI “bearish divergence” causes alarm

After a mostly calm start to the weekend after days of macroeconomic data reactions, Bitcoin woke up late Sunday to rise back above $25,000.

However, this was not to last, and as Cointelegraph reported, signs on exchange order books pointed to manipulative moves by large-volume traders.

A subsequent comedown after the weekly close took BTC/USD below $24,000 before a bounce back to the same levels as Saturday, where the pair still traded at the time of writing, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

For traders, there was natural cause to be wary.

“Not paying much attention to weekend PA.. BTC typically saves its meaningful moves for US stock market hours,” Crypto Chase wrote in part of a Twitter summary.

Monitoring resource Material Indicators initially flagged the order book activity, queried how long the phenomenon might continue with bulls powerless to make inroads higher.

An additional chart of the Binance order book confirmed that major bid support, known as a “bid wall,” had moved lower to $23,460, giving the spot price room to drift lower.

BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/ Twitter

Fellow trader and analyst Matthew Hyland admitted that it was “really hard to tell” whether Bitcoin could break higher on short timeframes.

Holding the area around $22,800 in the event of a pullback, followed by the key breakout, however, “wouldn’t surprise me,” he said on the day.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Matthew Hyland/ Twitter

More concerned about the rally’s strength was Venturefounder, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant.

In a Twitter thread, he warned that external factors such as “macro weakness” could have an immediate bearish impact on crypto markets.

“Bitcoin bearish RSI divergence continues… Almost the exact opposite way of the May–July 2021 period. I think any macro weakness can have BTC snap back to $19-20k real quick,” part of the comments stated.

Venturefounder referenced the Relative Strength Index (RSI) metric, which measures how overbought or oversold an asset is at a given price point. In 2021, RSI was increasing versus a BTC price correction, subsequently ending in current all-time highs of $69,000 in November that year.

All eyes on FOMC minutes and U.S. dollar

What form that “weakness” on macro markets might take remains to be seen.

The upcoming week holds considerably fewer potential macro triggers than the last, with a sprinkling of U.S. data releases, including personal spending in the form of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE).

However, the event on most crypto pundits’ radar is the release of the minutes from February’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting at the Fed.

This was where the latest benchmark interest rate hike was decided, with expectations that Fed Chair Jerome Powell included talk of a moratorium on rate hike policy, if only theoretically.

“We also have FOMC minutes releasing on Wednesday where Powell will describe what a rate hike ‘pause’ could look like,” Crypto Chase mentioned about the event.

“Middle of upcoming week is where I start considering swing entries.”

However, not everyone is convinced that the FOMC minutes will be plain sailing. Among them is financial market research resource Capital Hungry, which this week warned that “sneaky hawkish revisions” may be revealed.

“Feds sneak in hawkish revisions out of the spotlight (not an active FOMC) with market already adjusted to CPI revisions and Jan report. PCE data feeds into elevated inflation sentiment,” it argued in part of the Twitter commentary.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingView

Any return of inflationary tendencies would boost U.S. dollar strength, which spent the last macro trading day of the previous week erasing prior gains.

Matthew Dixon, founder and CEO of crypto rating platform Evai, spelled out the bearish scenario for the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) in what would be a bullish tailwind for risk assets, including crypto.

Analyst: moving average “cloud” is there to be broken

As Cointelegraph continues to report, Bitcoin bulls have a problem, which is becoming increasingly evident on short timeframes — the 200-week moving average (WMA).

A classic “bear market” trend line, the 200WMA has acted as resistance since the middle of 2022, with BTC/USD spending more time below the level than ever before.

Reclaiming the level would mark a conspicuous achievement, but all attempts have been met with flat rejection so far.

“If Bitcoin manages to break above the 200-week MA cloud, which is becoming increasingly likely, we’re going to see a lot more TradFi coverage of crypto again,” Caleb Franzen, senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics, summarized at the weekend.

Franzen additionally showed the levels at stake in the short term, with $25,200 the ceiling needing a breakout.

The “cloud” he referred to involves more than just the 200WMA — Bitcoin’s 50WMA is currently at $24,462, coinciding with the current spot price focus.

Additionally, asks on exchange order books are stacked around the 200WMA, increasing the challenges in flipping it from resistance to support.

In research published on Feb. 18, Franzen described the WMA cloud as one of “two major signals to add more bullish fuel to the fire” alongside the realized price.

“BTC was rejected on this dynamic range for the first time in August 2022 and was briefly rejected on this level earlier in the week. Will it be able to break above on this second attempt?” he queried.

BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp) with 50, 200MA. Source: TradingView

Hash rate, difficulty in line for fresh record highs

In a familiar silver lining, Bitcoin’s network fundamentals are keeping the bullish vibe firmly intact as the month draws to a close.

The next automated readjustment will see difficulty adding an estimated 10% to its current tally. This will cancel out the previous readjustment’s modest decline to send difficulty to new all-time highs.

Bitcoin network fundamentals overview (screenshot). Source: BTC.com

This is a crucial yardstick for gauging Bitcoin miner sentiment, as such significant increases suggest corresponding advances in competition for block subsidies.

It comes on the back of increasing coverage of so-called “ordinals” fees, with miner profitability clearly recovering after months of pressure.

Bitcoin miner net position change chart. Source: Glassnode

Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode bears this out. Miners have begun retaining more BTC than they sell on rolling monthly timeframes, reversing a trend of net sales in place from mid-January.

Raw data from MiningPoolStats meanwhile shows Bitcoin network hash rate also preserving its upward trend, remaining at over 300 exahashes per second (EH/s).

Bitcoin hash rate raw data chart (screenshot). Source: MiningPoolStats

“Unstoppable!” commented economist and analyst Jan Wuestenfeld about the phenomenon as its 30-day moving average climbed to new all-time highs of its own last week.

Joe Burnett, head analyst at Blockware, described hash rate growth as “truly relentless.”

“The 14 day moving average of total global hash rate now sits at ~ 290 EH/s. Bitcoin miners are scavenging the Earth for cheap, wasted, excess energy,” he added alongside Glassnode figures.

Longtime Bitcoin market participants will recall the once popular phrase, “price follows hash rate,” which postulates that a large enough hash rate uptrend has inevitable bullish implications for BTC price action.

Most “greed” since Bitcoin all-time highs

$25,000 is a headache for reasons beyond solid resistance — breaking above it could be an unsustainable move for Bitcoin.

Related: Bitcoin’s bullish price action continues to bolster rallies in FIL, OKB, VET and RPL

The latest findings from research firm Santiment suggest that crypto market sentiment becomes too greedy around those multimonth highs.

“Bitcoin’s 8-month high yesterday came with a great amount of euphoria,” it commented on a chart showing social media activity.

“Perhaps a bit too much, as the positive commentary on social platforms may have created a local top. Just as the negative commentary on Feb. 13th likely contributed to the bottom.”

Bitcoin sentiment annotated chart. Source: Santiment/ Twitter

The phenomenon is also visible on altcoins, with Santiment singling out Dogecoin (DOGE) as a key example this month.

“This pattern of social volume and highly positive sentiment toward Dogecoin perfectly illustrates how euphoria creates price tops. Regardless of your opinion on DOGE, hype on this asset in particular historically foreshadows market corrections,” it concluded.

The ever-popular Crypto Fear & Greed Index meanwhile shows “greed” as the overriding sentiment flavor across crypto this week.

The push to the highs for Bitcoin coincided with a reading of 62/100 for the Index, marking new highs since the November 2021 push to $69,000 on BTC/USD.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

BTC price cools on latest US data as Bitcoin liquidates $80M in shorts

Bitcoin price shies away from $25,000 with questions over inflation combine with a resurgent U.S. dollar.

Bitcoin (BTC) trended toward $24,000 at the Feb. 16 Wall Street open after fresh macroeconomic data from the United States overshot estimates.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Hot U.S. PPI data “rattles” markets

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD retracing some of its latest gains on the day, trading at around $24,400 on Bitstamp at the time of writing.

The pair had hit $24,895 on Bitstamp overnight, marking its highest levels in six months as a surprise rally appeared to catch many traders off-guard.

Over the two days to Feb. 16, $80 million in short positions were liquidated on Bitcoin alone, with $65 million coming on Feb. 15 — the most in a single day since Jan. 20.

BTC liquidations chart. Source: Coinglass

The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) print for January nonetheless extinguished some of the excitement on risk assets as it showed wholesale prices increasing more than expected on a year-on-year basis.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index were both down 1.1% at the time of writing.

“Some signs of economic weakening in today’s macro data,” investment research resource Game of Trades wrote in part of the reaction on Twitter, while also noting that unemployment data had come in below the expected 200,000 claims for the week.

In step with declining equities, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) showed renewed strength, climbing above 104.1 to its highest level since the first week of the year.

“Still going perfectly as expected, so far we’re seeing a D1 downtrend break and flip, eyes on D1 200 EMA in the 104.5-104.7 area as discussed past couple of weeks,” popular trader Pierre wrote.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView

What’s in a death cross

Bitcoin faced key moving averages of its own, meanwhile, in the form of the 50-week and 200-week trend lines, these having just printed their first-ever “death cross” in a warning to bulls.

Related: Why is Bitcoin price up today?

For Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, however, there was reason not to pay too much attention to the phenomenon following the 2022 bear market.

“The Death Cross only takes place based on historical price events,” he told Twitter followers on Feb. 15.

“The entire bear market of the past year, that’s finally coming into that cross. Best thing to do with such a thing is to long instead of short.”

BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp) with 50, 200MA. Source: TradingView

Fellow trader Crypto Tony summarized the mood among more conservative market participants.

In an update after the latest local highs, he argued that much depended on Bitcoin’s behavior around $25,000.

“My main target on this 5th wave is $25,000 as this is also the prior untapped swing high,” he explained alongside a chart.

“From here we will get more of a understanding whether we are indeed in a flat bearish correction, or if this is the start of something more exciting.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Crypto Tony/Twitter

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin price eyes $23K despite US dollar strength hitting 6-week high

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is gaining ground more rapidly than Bitcoin after fresh economic data surprises from Washington.

Bitcoin (BTC) hit its highest in almost a week on Feb. 15 as “extremely positive” economic data boosted risk asset sentiment.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

BTC’s price aims for $23,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD gaining 2.2% on the day to eye a reclaim of $23,000.

Analysts were already predicting volatility, with the latest economic numbers from the United States delivering a pleasant surprise.

Retail sales and the Empire State Manufacturing Index both surpassed market expectations, showing a more resilient economy despite restrictive policy at the Federal Reserve.

“Extremely positive numbers. Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales both smash expectations, while also Manufacturing Index more positive than expected,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, reacted.

“The relief rally will continue, as it seems.”

The figures followed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for January, which came practically in line with expectations and provided only limited volatility as a result.

Bitcoin made a much bigger statement on the day, however, causing some to rethink their short-term perspective on the market.

“I was cleary wrong today with my expectations on lower TF, expecting some correction first. As mentioned: a reclaim of $22,3k is bullish to me and opens the road to 25k imo,” popular trader Crypto Ed acknowledged in part of Twitter comments.

Fellow trader Skew, meanwhile, eyed $22,500 as an important zone for bulls to reclaim next.

“$22.5K was strong support & price consolidated above for 19days; reclaiming this level would be pretty bullish for BTC,” an update on the four-hour chart read.

“Else failure will result in price testing the breakout consolidation.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Skew/Twitter

DXY surge may see “tighter financial conditions”

U.S. equities were biding their time at the time of writing, meanwhile, with the S&P 500 still down 0.5% on the day.

Related: First weekly death cross ever — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

The Nasdaq Composite Index gained a modest 0.7%, while the much-watched U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) crossed the 104 mark for the first time since Jan. 6 in a warning to risk assets.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView

“I’d still be cautious around here. Keeping open mind of things…both btc and eth below jan high still. …dxy pushing up. wouldn’t get too optimistic just yet,” TraderSZ thus argued about the outlook for major crypto assets.

Investor Michael J. Kramer, meanwhile, predicted a trip to 106 for DXY, along with “tighter financial conditions” in what could end up a recipe for defeat for the crypto rebound.

“For all the grave stomping on the dollar, the DXY is trading above the 2022 daily close. Interesting…,” Caleb Franzen, senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics, added.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin flirts with bid liquidity as BTC price nears new 3-week lows

Bitcoin bulls struggle to influence the trend as CPI nerves combine with already weak low-timeframe performance.

Bitcoin (BTC) drifted toward major liquidity around the Feb. 13 Wall Street open as the dust settled on United States regulatory news.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

BTC traders spread bids lower

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD $21,476 on Bitstamp, almost matching the weekend’s three-week lows.

As analysts expected a “choppy” day prior to key U.S. macroeconomic data, news that blockchain firm Paxos was being sued by the Securities and Exchange Commission added to market nerves.

BTC spot price action thus inched ever closer to a major area of bid liquidity on the Binance order book, something which Maartunn, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, dubbed “The Great Wall.”

“‘The Great Wall’ (price support) on Bitcoin is placed at $21,500. This morning some bids got filled. Thereby, the strength of the wall has been reduced from $25 ~ $27 million to $19 million,” he noted.

Maartunn used data from monitoring resource Material Indicators, which in its own comments revealed that thinning bids near the top of the liquidity cloud were being repositioned lower.

In the short term, eyes were on the Feb. 14 Consumer Price Index (CPI) print to move risk assets en masse.

“Thoughts remain the same since the breakdown. I do not see any high conviction swing longs until 20.3K liquidity is taken out,” popular trader Crypto Chase wrote in a fresh Twitter update.

“Today will most likely be choppy and CPI should provide the next ‘move’ tomorrow. With that said, my focus today will be on intraday ES trades.”

A survey by fellow trading account Daan Crypto Trades, meanwhile, showed roughly equal expectations of the market going higher or lower after CPI.

“This is the 4th time in a row that a Sunday pump or dump has quickly retraced,” a separate post added about overnight BTC price action.

“As you guys probably know, this is a very common thing to see and a reason to always be skeptical seeing weekend moves on BTC.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/Twitter

Stocks, dollar tread water prior to CPI

U.S. stocks opened the week modestly higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index up 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively.

Related: First weekly death cross ever — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was undecided at the time of writing, having spent the week prior consolidating after a solid rebound.

“A big day tomorrow with CPi data release 13:30 gmt. DXY price seen around top of parallel channel with a decisive break either way to determine the next big move for Btc Ethereum and other Altcoins,” Matthew Dixon, founder and CEO of crypto rating platform Evai, summarized the outlook.

“Preferred direction is down for Dollar which would be +ve for BTC.”

An accompanying chart showed DXY on four-hour timeframes

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) annotated chart. Source: Matthew Dixon/Twitter

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Binance to temporarily suspend bank transfers in US dollars beginning Feb. 8

The announcement came with just two days’ notice, but it does not apply to Binance.US users, so only 0.01% of active users will be affected.

Binance has announced that it is temporarily suspending bank transfers in United States dollars (USD) beginning Feb. 8. No other trading methods will be affected, the exchange said in a tweet on Feb. 6.

The news came with no explanation, although the company — the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange — added in the same tweet that:

“We are working hard to restart the service as soon as possible. […] All other methods of buying and selling crypto remain unaffected.”

Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) said in a separate tweet:

“It is worth noting that USD bank transfers are leveraged by only 0.01% of our monthly active users. However, we appreciate that this is still a bad user experience.”

The suspension apparently applies only to international Binance users, as Binance.US tweeted that “our customers will not be affected.”

Binance has had banking challenges in the United States recently. Its SWIFT transfer partner, Signature Bank, said on Jan. 21 that it would only process trades by users with USD bank accounts over $100,000, effective Feb. 1. The bank had said previously that it was drastically reducing deposits from crypto clients.

Binance said at the time that it was seeking a new SWIFT partner and trades with USD using credit or debit cards would still be accepted, as would all SWIFT trades using other currencies.

Also on Feb. 1, Binance published a list of 144 countries where USD SWIFT transfers of any size would be suspended.

Related: Binance stablecoin BUSD sees a sharp market cap drop amid solvency and mismanagement worries

CNBC reports, citing Arkham Intelligence, that there has been an immediate outflow of Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) stablecoins pegged to the dollar to other exchanges, adding that the outflow was “tiny” compared to Binance’s $42.2 billion in crypto assets.

Why did Bitcoin price go down today? BTC traders brace for $23K retest

Bitcoin price gains take a hit from a rising U.S. dollar as excitement over the Fed’s rate hike and market commentary fades.

Bitcoin (BTC) headed toward $23,000 on Feb. 3, after a night of losses erased bulls’ latest progress.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Dollar rebound halts crypto party

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting lows of $23,329 on Bitstamp.

The pair had come off a second trip above the $24,000 mark at the Feb. 2 Wall Street open, with buyers failing to sustain momentum amid macro market volatility.

In classic style for interest rate announcements by the United States Federal Reserve, an initial move was soon countered, with Bitcoin returning to its prior position.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingView

Conditions worsened thanks to a rebound in U.S. dollar strength, with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) putting in a conspicuous bounce, which began to consolidate on the day.

“Once the DXY dollar finds support and begins to bounce hard, then we will see pullbacks on our Crypto bags,” popular trader Crypto Tony warned.

“Time to pay attention.”

Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe eyed a level of 102 for DXY to spark inversely-correlated drops across risk assets.

“I do expect it’s likely DXY will retest what was support and now overhead resistance,” Matthew Dixon, founder and CEO of crypto rating platform Evai, continued in his own analysis.

“This would align with my inverse expectation on Btc and Crypto moving down a touch before a final ‘blowoff’ high (not much higher imo).”

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) annotated chart. Source: Matthew Dixon/ Twitter

CPI presents fresh worry

Macro-induced price pressure could linger through February, some believe.

Related: Bitcoin bulls must reclaim these 2 levels as ‘death cross’ still looms

In its latest market update sent to Telegram channel subscribers, trading firm QCP Capital drew particular attention to the next U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, set for release on Feb. 14.

“Post-FOMC, we have a heap of 2nd tier data releases including the important ISM services and NFP. However the decider will be the Valentine’s Day CPI – and we think there are upside risks to that release,” it stated.

“Firstly, the Cleveland Fed’s inflation Nowcast is showing >0.6% print for Jan, even if it has overstated inflation the past few months.”

Due to a change in the way CPI is calibrated, QCP suspected that forthcoming numbers in 2023 could be higher than the market expects. Whether psychological or not, the net impact could disappoint crypto bulls.

“In Europe, a similar reweight has led to a surge in the January CPI released this week. Hence, we expect downside risks to materialize from here – either at this meeting, or after the next CPI release,” QCP added.

According to data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, meanwhile, the consensus remained firm over the next rate hike in mid-March being identical to the February one at 25 basis points.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin meets FOMC after 39% January gains with Fed path ‘uncertain’

The second-best January on record for BTC price action comes face-to-face with differing opinions on U.S. economic policy.

Bitcoin (BTC) hovered around $23,000 on Feb. 1 after sealing its best January performance in 10 years.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

End of Bitcoin bear market is “default view”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed a monthly close of around $23,100 for BTC/USD — its highest since July 2022.

The largest cryptocurrency finished the first month of the year up 39.6%, according to statistics from Coinglass.

BTC/USD monthly returns comparison (screenshot). Source: Coinglass

The impressive performance emboldened bulls, many of whom had kept the faith despite mass misgivings from more conservative market participants.

“Bitcoin closes with a Monthly swing low,” trader, entrepreneur and investor Bob Loukas reacted.

“I mean, anything can happen, right. But the absolute default view must be the bear market ended in Dec.”

As Cointelegraph reported, opinions differ considerably over how Bitcoin will behave in February, with one trader expecting “bearish” conditions to return after five-month highs.

The picture for the month ahead continues to be clouded by macroeconomic triggers. Notably, Feb. 1 will see the United States Federal Reserve confirm its next interest rate hike, with the European Central Bank doing the same on Feb. 2.

While a 25 basis points (bps) hike by the Fed is all but “unanimously” priced in, crypto research and analysis firm Arcane Research says, the future remains less certain.

“Due to a relatively strong market recovery, Chair Powell may take the advantage to maintain hawkish restrictive undertones, emphasizing the importance of incoming economic data,” it argued in a blog post released on Jan. 31, adding that consensus “expects a 25bps hike on Wednesday and another 25bps hike to 475bps on March 22.”

“Currently, zero adjustments during the May 3 and June 14 FOMC meetings are priced as the most likely outcome, but a further hike of 25bps remains within the realm of possibility,” it noted.

Expectations of a 25bps hike totaled 99.3% at the time of writing, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

Should the door be open for surprises, volatility may increase as a result, with rate hike decisions already a classic catalyst.

Arcane nonetheless showed that with each passing hike, volatility around the Fed’s move has cooled.

“This could suggest that the trend of massive FOMC-induced volatility in BTC is receding,” it concluded.

Bitcoin volatility comparison chart (screenshot). Source: Arcane Research

Dollar strength eyes key rebound

Another concern for crypto performance comes in the form of U.S. dollar strength.

Related: Best January since 2013? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

In a market update last week, trading firm QCP Capital warned subscribers that a “massive positive divergence” was in play on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).

Traditionally inversely correlated with risk assets, DXY has been in a downtrend since mid-2022 but has stemmed losses into the new year.

“This is the same setup we saw in BTC/ETH in Dec – and as we witnessed there, any breakout to the topside will therefore be extremely sharp and violent,” QCP wrote.

U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin mining revenue jumps up 50% to $23M in one month

As Bitcoin remains well-positioned for a steady recovery, the mining industry witnessed a 50% growth in revenue in terms of U.S. dollars.

As Bitcoin (BTC) shows a minor bull run, the connected mining ecosystems’ year-long struggle for survival has started to pay off. In the first month of 2023, the Bitcoin mining community experienced a 50% increase in revenue through mining rewards and transaction fees.

On Dec. 28, 2022, Bitcoin mining revenue dipped to $13.6 million for the first time since October 2020. This, coupled with rising energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, imposed tremendous financial pressure on mining companies, forcing some to shut down.

As Bitcoin remains well-positioned for a steady recovery, the mining industry witnessed a 50% growth in revenue in terms of U.S. dollars, as shown below.

Bitcoin mining revenue increased by 50% in January 2023. Source: Blockchain.com

Bitcoin mining revenue jumped from $15.3 million on Jan. 1 to nearly $23 million in the span of 30 days.

As more miners join to power and secure the decentralized Bitcoin network, the hash rate continues to reach new all-time highs. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin hash rate stood at around 300 exahashes-per-second.

Related: Bitcoin stays out of fear for 11 straight days as price tips near 24K

One of the biggest criticism of Bitcoin remains the high energy requirement for running the proof-of-work consensus mechanism. In October 2022, Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin witnessed a 41% increase in energy consumption year-on-year.

However, a drive for sourcing greener energy to power Bitcoin mining facilities aims to solve the predicament. A mining company recently tapped into a source of stranded energy in Malawi, a landlocked country in southeastern Africa.

As Cointelegraph reported, the project — undertaken by Gridless — uses 50 kilowatts of stranded energy to test out as a new Bitcoin mining site.

Speaking about the overall impact of the initiative, Erik Hersman, co-founder and CEO of Gridless, stated, “The power developer had built these powerhouses a few years ago, but they weren’t able to expand to more families because they’re barely profitable and couldn’t afford to buy more meters to connect more families. So, our deal allowed for them to immediately buy 200 more meters to connect more families.”

In addition, the environmental footprint of the Bitcoin mining facility is low as it runs purely off river-based hydropower.

Bitcoin price stays near $23K as data shows hodlers not selling BTC

Seasoned Bitcoin market participants are anything but willing to take profit, even with the BTC price up 40% in January.

Bitcoin (BTC) refused to surrender gains at the Jan. 23 Wall Street open as United States equities opened higher.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Dollar sags as risk assets reject retracement

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD continuing to circle $22,800 at the time of writing.

The pair had managed to conserve its trading range over the weekend, with a local low of $22,315 allowing bulls to avoid a major setback.

The mood remained buoyant among risk assets on the day, with the S&P 500 up 1.3% and Nasdaq Composite Index trading 2% higher.

Gold, too, disappointed those hoping that a retracement would set in after weeks of impressive returns, something analyst Alisdair McLeod put down to classic principles of supply and demand.

“Attempts to knock back gold continue to fail,” he commented on the daily XAU/USD chart.

“While technical analysts point out a correction is due, they seem to be unaware that central banks are buying every ounce they can get their hands on.”

With that, an already flagging U.S. dollar index (DXY) managed only a modest rebound at the open before returning to trend downward, circling 102 at the time of writing.

U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingView

Among Bitcoin analysts, the jury remained out as to whether the current rally really did mark a trend change after more than a year of bear market.

“There are signs this could be the start of the bull, and there are also signs it’s a bear market rally. Until I see confirmations, I’m focused on the data that matters so I’ll know whether a potential breakout is a justifiable move or a higher probability of being a fakeout,” Keith Alan, co-founder of on-chain data resource Material Indicators, summarized.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Keith Alan/ Twitter

Alan continued noting that one macro trigger in particular still needed to enter to call time on bears.

“According to the economic data we’ve seen so far, the uptrend in unemployment, which has historically marked bottoms, is still missing,” he wrote.

“Sure, maybe ‘this time is different’, but I’m looking for full candles above the 200 Week MA to consider it a confirmed breakout.”

Alan was referencing Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, a key trend line which Bitcoin has yet to reclaim after losing it as support late last year.

BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp) with 200MA. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin hodlers resist the urge to sell

With Bitcoin up 40% in January, a further point of concern focused on the temptation to take profits.

Related: BTC metrics exit capitulation — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” analytics firm Glassnode nonetheless pointed out that long-term holders remained broadly steadfast in their resolve to not exit the market — even after more than a year of losses.

“Analysis of cohort behavior shows that short-term holders and miners have been motivated by the opportunity to liquidate a portion of their holdings. On the contrary, the supply held by long-term holders continues to grow, which can be argued to be a signal of strength and conviction across this cohort,” part of its conclusion read.

“Given the effect of long-term holders on the macro trend, watching their spending is likely a key toolset to track over the coming weeks.”

Long-term holders are defined as entities keeping coins for at least 155 days.

Bitcoin % long-term and short-term holder supply in profit annotated chart (screenshot). Source: Glassnode

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Will Bitcoin price crack $22K? Dollar weakness, Bank of Japan easing boost hopes

No change in central bank policy from Japan caused ruffled feathers in forex markets, but Bitcoin remains tied to a trading zone near two-month highs.

Bitcoin (BTC) faced a potentially volatile day on Jan. 18, with multiple macro triggers beginning to unsettle the outlook.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

BoJ refuses to hike

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD holding firm above $21,000 on the day.

The pair remained cool amid news from Japan, where the central bank — the Bank of Japan (BoJ) — had decided to keep an ultra-easy policy in place, defying expectations of an interest rate hike.

In doing so, both the Japanese yen and the United States dollar took a hit in the latest chapter of a saga closely watched by crypto commentators.

“In keeping its key rate and yield curve control policy unchanged at today’s meeting, the Bank of Japan probably wanted to convey a message to the market; don’t fight the BoJ,“ ING Bank said in a dedicated response piece.

Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe focused on a fresh decline in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) following the news.

“Another bearish retest taking place on the DXY, in which this one starts to drop substantially, maybe even due to the announcements from the BoJ earlier today,” he summarized.

In the event, DXY bounced at 101.9, not quite retesting the seven-month lows achieved on Jan. 16.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingView

Van de Poppe also noted upcoming data from the U.S. in the form of the Producer Price Index (PPI) for December 2022.

“In a few hours we’ll get PPI numbers and Retail Sales,” he added.

“Might be some moving around after.”

BTC whale bidding raises questions

On Bitcoin markets, meanwhile, suspicion continued to swirl around activity on the Binance order book as large-volume traders posted more and more bid liquidity.

Related: Bitcoin hits new post-FTX high as analysis warns move ‘choreographed’

On-chain analytics resource, Material Indicators argued that a single entity was potentially moving bids higher, helping buoy BTC/USD at two-month highs.

“Speculating that it could be the same whale using the $4M to insulate their $22M and give enough time to rug the $22M if the $4M gets hit. Just a theory. Time will tell,” one of multiple Twitter posts on Jan. 17 stated.

A subsequent tweet nonetheless voiced concern over “how long they can keep this up,” implying a corrective move could still hit Bitcoin.

BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/ Twitter

The latest snapshot of the Binance order book showed the strongest resistance clustered at $22,000.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.