dollar

Brazil bank BTG Pactual to issue USD-pegged stablecoin

The new U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin aims to help BTG Pactual’s customers interact between the traditional financial system and the digital economy.

Major Brazilian investment bank BTG Pactual continues onboarding new cryptocurrency services with the launch of its own stablecoin backed by the U.S. dollar.

BTG Pactual is preparing to launch the BTG Dol, a new stablecoin pegged to the U.S. dollar on a 1:1 ratio, using the bank’s custody services. Announcing the news on April 4, BTG Pactual said that the stablecoin would enable holders to “dollarize” a part of their equity, and help customers interact between the traditional financial system and the new digital economy.

“We are innovating in using financial technology for our client’s benefit. When buying BTG Dol, investors have access to an easier, safer and smarter way to invest in dollars,” BTG Pactual’s head of digital assets, André Portilho, said.

According to the announcement, the new BTG Dol stablecoin is based on Mynt, BTG Pactual’s proprietary crypto technology platform. Launched one year ago, Mynt allows users to invest in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH). Mynt’s head of operations, Marcel Monteiro, said:

“We recently launched eight new assets, we already have 22 cryptocurrencies on the platform, and now we have our own stablecoin. This shows that the Bank trusts technology and will continue with its commitment to offering new innovative digital products and services.”

As previously reported, Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss-founded crypto exchange Gemini partnered with BTG Pactual to provide custody for some of the bank’s digital asset-related funds. BTG Pactual’s Bitcoin 20 Multi-Market Investment Fund reportedly became one of the first Bitcoin funds launched in Brazil in 2021, with custody and other services provided by two Gemini subsidiaries, Gemini Custody and Gemini Fund Solutions.

Related: Russia talks up prospects of BRICS countries developing new currency

Brazilian banks have been adopting more cryptocurrency-friendly services for a while. In February, major Brazilian bank Banco do Brasil enabled customers to pay their taxes with cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin through a joint initiative with the local crypto firm Bitfy.

Magazine: Unstablecoins: Depegging, bank runs and other risks loom

Bitcoin breakout ‘matter of time’ says analysis with BTC price at $28K

Bitcoin will make a decision sooner rather than later, according to cues from the Binance order book.

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed tightly rangebound at the April 3 Wall Street open as analysts counted down to volatility.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

“Watch for rugs” on BTC

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it lingered around $28,000 on Bitstamp.

The weekend had finished on an erratic note as news of an OPEC+ oil production cut sent crypto tumbling before a rebound during the Asia trading session.

Amid a lack of clear direction, monitoring resource Material Indicators flagged significant liquidity on either side of spot price on the Binance order book.

“We still don’t have a confirmed breakout or breakdown, only rejected attempts which have kept price chopping in this range,” part of fresh Twitter commentary added.

“It’s only a matter of time until one side breaks. Watch for rugs.”

BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/Twitter

Popular trader Crypto Chase agreed that BTC price action remained stagnant.

“Range bound,” he summarized, referring to the equilibrium price (EQ) at $28,234 — the midpoint of the upper and lower bounds of the trading range — holding over the weekend.

“Range EQ providing support for the past 4 days. Bulls want to see acceptance / daily close above 28.9K for expansion. Bears want a significant close below range EQ. At that point, prior support from EQ could flip to resistance sending price to retest range low.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Crypto Chase/Twitter

Related: US enforcement agencies are turning up the heat on crypto-related crime

Others were more categorical in their market appraisals. Maartunn, a contributor at on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, turned to longer timeframes to place emphasis on the success of the March monthly close.

By contrast, trader and analyst Rekt Capital warned that a retracement could be imminent.

DXY heads lower after brief comeback

On macro, United States equities showed mixed results at the open, with the S&P 500 treading water and the Nasdaq Composite Index down 0.8%.

Related: BTC price double top forming? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), having initially benefitted from the OPEC+ announcement, continued falling through the day, at one point wicking below 102, almost matching two-month lows.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView

“DXY has been rejected at its 50-week moving average,” analytics account Game of Trades noted the day prior.

“A bearish rejection on the MACD has increased the probability for further downside.”

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

BTC price double top forming? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Thanks to oil production cuts and major historical resistance, among other factors, Bitcoin bulls have their work cut out to break higher.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week in volatile territory, with news of an oil supply cut delivering a choppy start.

Still caught at major historical resistance, BTC/USD delivered an unappetizing weekly close on news of oil production cuts.

A subsequent rebound may show bulls’ mettle, but the question for analysts is what happens next. Will oil prices dictate market moves or can Bitcoin break through $30,000?

Under the hood, the picture is as rosy as ever, with network fundamentals due to hit new all-time highs this week while dormant supply is also increasing.

Cointelegraph looks at Bitcoin markets as the world digests the latest move from The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus 10 other oil-exporting countries (Opec+).

Oil cut boosts dollar as inflation concerns return

A key event over the weekend, which is now upending macro conditions, is a decision to cut global oil output.

Opec+ has announced voluntary cuts in production totaling 1.65 million barrels per day, and the impact was felt immediately, with the U.S. dollar rising alongside energy costs.

A classic headwind for risk assets, including crypto, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) traded above 102.7 at the time of writing, up from April lows of 102.04.

“Eyes on DXY this morning…. This bounce could be just a gap fill as I spoke about last week. I was waiting for this fill,” popular trader Crypto Ed reacted, uploading an explanatory chart to Twitter.

“It’s time for DXY to show its direction (which should effect BTC’s PA).”

U.S. Dollar Index annotated chart. Source: Crypto Ed/ Twitter

While the Opec+ move took its toll on assets from Bitcoin to gold, Alasdair Macleod, head of research for Goldmoney, argued that governments would have to inject liquidity to offset any energy price rises, thus once again boosting risk-asset performance.

“Markets will soon react to the surprise OPEC production cut from this weekend,” financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter continued in its own dedicated analysis.

“Oil prices will likely rise back above $80.00, an unwelcomed development by central banks attempting to fight inflation. Supply-side inflation is set to worsen on this news.”

Higher inflation would, in turn, increase the odds of central banks continuing to hike interest rates despite the ongoing banking crisis in the U.S. and abroad.

According to the latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets currently believe that the Federal Reserve will hike rates by another 0.25% in May, having previously been more in favor of a pause.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

Bitcoin price rebounds from Opec+ news

Bitcoin initially felt the pressure from the Opec+ decision as the weekend faded, dropping below $28,000 to close the week in a disappointing style.

However, during the April 3 Asia trading session, BTC/USD staged a sudden comeback, jumping $865 from the overnight lows of $27,600 on Bitstamp.

Popular trading account Daan Crypto Trades noted that in so doing, Bitcoin had closed another CME futures gap and thus exhibited classic Monday trading behavior.

Fellow analytics account Skew followed short-term developments while predicting a “much bigger reaction” during the coming week.

Looking ahead, however, crypto analysis and education resource IncomeSharks maintained a bearish outlook on BTC.

“I just can’t unsee the double top Mcdonalds pattern,” it wrote on the day, referring to the structure of BTC/USD in 2023 so far.

“Now you got a diagonal trendline break, low volume, and weak OBV. Logic and unbiased emotions says to sell/short this, I don’t see a reason to be bullish short term YET.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: IncomeSharks/ Twitter

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital was not so sure.

“Still not clear if BTC is forming the second part of its Double Top formation,” he argued in his latest analysis.

“$BTC would need to soon drop to ~$27,000 (blue) if it is to fully develop the pattern pattern & form an M-like shape. Lose ~$27K -> Double Top validated. Something to consider.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/ Twitter

Another week, another Bitcoin mining record

Dip or no dip, Bitcoin network fundamentals are in no mood to flip bearish this week.

According to the latest estimates from BTC.com, Bitcoin difficulty is due to have yet another increase at the upcoming automated readjustment in three days.

This will take it to 47.92 trillion on a 2.3% rise, marking new all-time highs for difficulty.

Bitcoin network fundamentals overview (screenshot). Source: BTC.com

Data from MiningPoolStats shows a similar uptrend for hash rate, which by some measurements touched a record 400 exahashes per second (EH/s) recently.

Analyzing what could be behind the rapid growth, Sam Wouters, a research analyst at mining firm River, suggested that it was likely sidelined rigs returning to operations thanks to price rises.

“It is rumored that several large public miners have significant inventories of unused ASICs. While Bitcoin’s price was so low and as much inventory as possible was brought online last year, at some point maximum capacity of what the network could handle was reached,” he wrote in part of a dedicated Twitter thread on March 27.

“Now that the price has been rising again and some time has passed, more of this inventory has been able to go online.”

Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows that miners have begun attempting to retain more BTC than they earn.

On a rolling 30-day basis, miners’ net position change is again positive after two weeks of a downtrend.

Bitcoin miner net position change chart. Source: Glassnode

Dormant BTC supply sets further records

Bitcoin is known for its ability to create supply shocks, but the latest data underscores the long-term trend.

Despite the BTC price comeback this year, the available supply dormant for a decade or more is at new all-time highs.

That record was beaten again this week, with 2,691,418.953 BTC not leaving wallets since at least April 2013.

This equates to 12.81% of the total possible supply of 21 million BTC, or 13.91% of the supply mined so far.

BTC supply last active 10 years ago or more. Source: Glassnode/ Twitter

Any mass interest in BTC will thus mean that buyers have a dwindling supply to purchase. While rising slightly in 2023, exchange balances remain near their lowest since early 2018, Glassnode confirms.

Bitcoin exchange balance chart. Source: Glassnode

“Too euphoric?”

Crypto market sentiment has not yet digested the possibility of a significant retracement.

Related: Bitcoin liquidity drops to 10-month low amid US bank run

According to the classic sentiment indicator, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, “greed” is what continues to characterize the overall mood.

As of April 3, greed measured 63/100, near its highest since Bitcoin’s all-time highs in November 2021.

“The crypto market is getting too euphoric,” analytics resource Game of Trades warned late last month.

While high, the level of greed, as depicted by the Index, still has considerable room for growth until hitting “extreme” territory nearer 90 — this being a classic signal that a significant market correction is due.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Peter Schiff blames ‘too much gov’t regulation’ for worsening financial crisis

Finding the right balance between regulations and banking institutions is important for Schiff, considering that Puerto Rico regulators closed down Schiff’s bank due to non-compliance.

The recent fall of major banks in the United States and the need for federal intervention reignited discussions to identify the most effective ways to safeguard the crumbling economies. Comparing the episode to the financial crisis of 2008, prominent economist Peter Schiff found that increasing banking regulations contribute to the worsening economic crisis.

A deeper analysis of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) by a group of economists revealed that nearly 190 banks in the United States are at risk of a depositor-driven collapse. It was highlighted that the monetary policies penned down by central banks could hurt long-term assets such as government bonds and mortgages, creating losses for banks.

The 2008 financial crisis was primarily driven by the collapse of the housing market. However, Schiff believed the crisis was caused by “too much government regulation.”

Schiff highlighted how the U.S. government introduced new banking regulations after the 2008 financial crash while promising “what is happening right now would never happen again.” He added:

“But one reason we had the 2008 Financial crisis was too much Govt. regulation. That’s why this crisis will be worse.”

Finding the right balance between regulations and banking institutions is important for Schiff, considering that Puerto Rico regulators closed down Schiff’s bank not too long ago, on July 4, 2022.

At the time, Crypto Twitter reminded Schiff why millions of people worldwide vouch for Bitcoin (BTC) adoption in the quest for financial freedom.

Related: SVB mixup forces India’s SVC Bank to issue a notice of clarification

On the other end of the spectrum, crypto entrepreneurs have started to double down on Bitcoin’s epic comeback. Former Coinbase chief technology officer Balaji Srinivasan predicted that Bitcoin would reach $1 million in value within 90 days.

As Cointelegraph reported, pseudonymous Twitter users James Medlock and Srinivasan made the wager based on their different views of the U.S. economy’s future amid ongoing uncertainty regarding the country’s banking system.

Srinivasan’s bet circles around an impending crisis that will lead to the deflation of the U.S. dollar and take the BTC price to $1 million.

Bitcoin rejects at $25K as US PPI data meets Credit Suisse meltdown

BTC price attempts to break toward the week’s highs, but a charging U.S. dollar creates some serious friction for Bitcoin bulls.

Bitcoin (BTC) kept bears sweating near $25,000 on March 15 as encouraging macroeconomic data combined with concerns over banking crisis contagion.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

PPI offers “great signs” on Fed pivot

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD recovering from a 24-hour comedown to see highs of $25,273 on Bitstamp.

The pair reacted positively to the latest United States Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which came in far lower than expected.

Prior to the release, the Binance order book showed principal bid and ask liquidity parked at $22,000 and $26,000, respectively.

“Time will tell if enough bid liquidity is there to insulate $22k from getting hit,” on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators wrote in part of an accompanying commentary while uploading the data to Twitter.

BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/Twitter

For Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, signs were there for the Federal Reserve and Chair Jerome Powell to abandon interest rate hikes at next week’s decisive meeting.

“PPI comes in at 4.6%, while 5.4% was expected. Massive miss, resulting into inflation coming down. Powell to pivot?” he queried.

“Atleast 25bps seems very likely (or no hikes with the banking issues). Great signs!”

The PPI joined already buoyant Consumer Price Index data released the day prior, which accompanied nine-month highs for Bitcoin as crypto took full advantage of the unfolding U.S. banking crisis.

A day later, however, the focus was Europe as European bank stocks were halted for volatility and one in particular, Credit Suisse, hit new record lows.

Credit Suisse was down over 25% at one point before a reversal took it above the $2 mark.

“Silicon Valley Bank had about $209 billion in assets. Credit Suisse has about $578 billion in assets,” Genevieve Roch-Decter, CEO of financial insights firm Grit Capital, commented on the situation.

“This is a much bigger problem in the making.”

Dollar climbs, ignores U.S. inflation data

Crypto, meanwhile, faced headwinds from an arguably unlikely source on March 15 in the form of surging U.S. dollar strength.

Related: Bitcoin to $100K next? Analyst eyes ‘textbook perfect’ BTC price move

Despite the economic data print showing declining inflation and more favorable conditions for risk assets, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hit 105 for the first time since the Silicon Valley Bank implosion on March 1

Markets commentator Tedtalksmacro pinned the blame firmly on Europe’s banking troubles.

“Banking contagion is now spreading to Europe, euro bond yields sharply lower and therefore EUR is also sharply lower,” part of a tweet read.

“The EUR makes up 58% of the DXY. So EUR down = DXY up!”

The DXY measures dollar strength against a basket of major trading partner currencies. Its performance is traditionally inversely correlated with crypto markets.

U.S. dollar index 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingView

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin clings to $22K as US dollar strength rises to December levels — What’s next?

Bitcoin threatens to remove $22,000 as support as BTC price suffers against a booming DXY.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to three-week lows on March 8 as stronger-than-expected employment data from the United States dampened risk assets.

BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Employment stats boost Fed hawks, BTC price dips

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD dipping to $21,858 on Bitstamp.

The pair was attempting to preserve $22,000 as support at the time of writing, with traders’ downside targets still a way off at $21,300.

“Bitcoin not showing the strength I initially wanted to see (slight bounce yesterday taking place),” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, summarized.

“In that case, looking for some more downwards momentum towards a sweep of the lows at $21.2K before a bounce takes place. If we want $30K, flip $23K is necessary.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/ Twitter

Fellow trading account Daan Crypto Trades meanwhile argued that volatility was due thanks to movements in Bitcoin futures markets.

“Massive bid depth on the Binance futures pair. Combined with quite the ramp up in Open Interest,” he revealed on the day.

“Keep in mind that walls can be deceptive where they can be pulled at any moment. Feels like a bigger move is coming regardless of direction.”

Macro events offered mixed results when it came to moving crypto markets.

An appearance by Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, before the U.S. Congress the day prior failed to spark a reaction, but jobs data on the day sent the mood downhill.

“The expectations were 197K in employed people. The actual number is 242K, which is more positive than expected,” Van de Poppe wrote in part of comments on the day’s non-farm employment increases.

“For risk-on investors, not great, as we’ve just heard that Powell wants to increase interest rates more in 2023.”

Such “hot” employment figures traditionally unsettle risk assets as they imply that the Fed has more leeway to keep financial conditions tighter for longer.

Dollar blasts two three-month highs

Estimates on how far the Fed would hike at the next meeting of its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on March 22 evidenced the increasing uncertainty over declining inflation.

Related: Cathie Wood’s ARK ignores Silvergate, buys Coinbase stock for 6th straight month

Instead of 25 basis points as in February, the market now favored a larger 50-basis-point rate hike, according to data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) likewise held a potential unwelcome surprise in store for Bitcoin bulls.

After a strong session March 7, the Index consolidation on the day after hitting 105.88 — its highest levels since Dec. 1, 2022.

“Watch the DXY… there’s a near perfect set-up for a negatively divergent higher high above 106, then at least a big pullback, or the dump below 100 has begun,” investor David Brady reacted.

U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin clings to $22K as US dollar strength rises to December levels — What’s next?

Bitcoin threatens to remove $22,000 as support as BTC price suffers against a booming DXY.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to three-week lows on March 8 as stronger-than-expected employment data from the United States dampened risk assets.

BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Employment stats boost Fed hawks, BTC price dips

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD dipping to $21,858 on Bitstamp.

The pair was attempting to preserve $22,000 as support at the time of writing, with traders’ downside targets still a way off at $21,300.

“Bitcoin not showing the strength I initially wanted to see (slight bounce yesterday taking place),” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, summarized.

“In that case, looking for some more downwards momentum towards a sweep of the lows at $21.2K before a bounce takes place. If we want $30K, flip $23K is necessary.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/Twitter

Fellow trading account Daan Crypto Trades, meanwhile, argued that volatility was due thanks to movements in Bitcoin futures markets.

“Massive bid depth on the Binance futures pair. Combined with quite the ramp up in Open Interest,” he revealed on the day.

“Keep in mind that walls can be deceptive where they can be pulled at any moment. Feels like a bigger move is coming regardless of direction.”

Macro events offered mixed results when it came to moving crypto markets.

An appearance by Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, before the U.S. Congress the day prior failed to spark a reaction, but jobs data on the day sent the mood downhill.

“The expectations were 197K in employed people. The actual number is 242K, which is more positive than expected,” van de Poppe wrote in part of comments on the day’s non-farm employment increases.

“For risk-on investors, not great, as we’ve just heard that Powell wants to increase interest rates more in 2023.”

Such “hot” employment figures traditionally unsettle risk assets as they imply that the Fed has more leeway to keep financial conditions tighter for longer.

Dollar blasts two three-month highs

Estimates on how far the Fed would hike at the next meeting of its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on March 22 evidenced the increasing uncertainty over declining inflation.

Related: Cathie Wood’s ARK ignores Silvergate, buys Coinbase stock for 6th straight month

Instead of 25 basis points as in February, the market now favored a larger 50-basis-point rate hike, according to data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) likewise held a potential unwelcome surprise in store for Bitcoin bulls.

After a strong session on March 7, the Index consolidated on the day after hitting 105.88 — its highest level since Dec. 1, 2022.

“Watch the DXY… there’s a near perfect set-up for a negatively divergent higher high above 106, then at least a big pullback, or the dump below 100 has begun,” investor David Brady reacted.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

BTC price needs to close February above 50-month trend line — Analysis

A key Bitcoin battleground forms the backdrop for the end of the month amid a warning that BTC price action “doesn’t feel bullish.”

Bitcoin (BTC) faced a showdown with a key trend line on Feb. 28 as the monthly close finally arrived.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Bitcoin “doesn’t feel bullish” into February close

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD circling an area around $23,500 at the Wall Street open.

With United States stocks flat and the U.S. dollar avoiding a return to strength, eyes were on Bitcoin to preserve its gains through last-minute volatility.

“Would like to see more Bitcoin bid liquidity enter the active trading range to increase the chances of closing the Monthly candle above the 50-Month Moving Average,” monitoring resource Material Indicators wrote in one of several Twitter posts on the day.

“Volume has been weak, so at this stage doesn’t feel bullish.”

An accompanying chart showed BTC/USD bid and ask levels on the Binance order book.

BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/Twitter

Material Indicators noted that the month of March held a key macroeconomic event in the form of the Federal Reserve’s next decision on interest rate hikes. This was due on March 22 courtesy of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

“Close above the 50-Month MA = Bullish Close below $23,128 = Red and an invitation to retest key support levels,” part of another post continued.

“Close between the 50-Month MA – $23,128 = Green Monthly close and range to the next rate hike around the March 22nd FOMC meeting.”

BTC/USD 1-month candle chart (Bitstamp) with 50MA. Source: TradingView

Scott Melker, the trader and podcast host known as “The Wolf Of All Streets,” meanwhile, demanded more of spot price, calling the area immediately above “no man’s land.”

“Bullish breaker (red zone) holding as support at the moment. Still in no man’s land between $21,473 and $25,212,” he commented on a chart showing target levels.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Scott Melker/Twitter

All quiet on the macro landscape

A lack of direction in the U.S. dollar, meanwhile, removed a potential headache for risk asset bulls on the day.

Related: Bitcoin exchanges now own 16% less BTC than the oldest hodlers

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) spiked to multi-day lows as it failed to mount a comeback after giving up gains from the week prior.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingView

On U.S. equities, the S&P 500 traded down 0.2% at the time of writing, while the Nasdaq Composite Index was stationary on the day. 

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

How does the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) impact cryptocurrencies? Watch Macro Markets

Cointelegraph analyst and writer Marcel Pechman explains how the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) impacts cryptocurrencies.

The show Macro Markets, hosted by Marcel Pechman, which airs every Friday at 12 pm ET on the Cointelegraph Markets & Research YouTube channel, explains complex concepts in layman’s terms and focuses on the cause and effect of traditional financial events on the day-to-day crypto activity.

In the show’s inaugural episode airing today, Pechman discusses the impact of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on cryptocurrencies and how the inflation-protected bonds exchange-traded fund (ETF) provides a much better estimate of traditional markets’ demand for fixed income.

Viewers will learn how a strong United States dollar is not necessarily positive for the U.S., what is an inverse correlation, and why analysts believe a more robust DXY is inherently bearish for cryptocurrencies. 

The analyst invites viewers to experiment with the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) ETF, a government debt instrument that benefits from higher inflation — hence, a better sentiment gauge on demand for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Marcel explains why the $15-billion Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) trades on stock markets below the 630,000 Bitcoin (BTC) value held by the investment vehicle. Some analysts claim that the Bitcoin bull run will be unsustainable only until this indicator flips positive — an argument that Pechman refutes.

To close the first Macro Markets show, the analyst explains in simple terms what a hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve is, how interest rate increases impact the economy and, ultimately, crypto markets. This segment has been specially crafted for traders looking for simple and direct relations between complex macroeconomic events and their impacts on markets.

If you are looking for exclusive and valuable content provided by leading crypto analysts and experts, make sure to subscribe to the Cointelegraph Markets & Research YouTube channel. Join us at Macro Markets every Friday at 12:00 pm ET.

Bitcoin price stays under $24K as PCE data helps US dollar to near 7-week highs

Bitcoin fails to catch a break after “hot” PCE numbers punish U.S. stocks and bring DXY back from the brink of breakdown.

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed lower at the Feb. 24 Wall Street open as United States macroeconomic data showed inflation biting back.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

PCE sparks fresh doubts on inflation

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it traded in a narrowing range around $23,800.

The pair attempted to reclaim $24,500 the day prior, but it ultimately proved unsuccessful, as resistance kept gains in check.

Bitcoin nonetheless saw only a muted reaction to the latest U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index print, which was 4.7% instead of the 4.3% forecast — suggesting that inflation was not ebbing as quickly as hoped.

For popular commentator Tedtalksmacro, this will cause the Federal Reserve to consider a larger interest rate hike at its March meeting — a potential headwind for risk assets including crypto.

“Here comes the speculation of 50bps in March,” he argued in part of a Twitter reaction.

Focusing on BTC/USD itself, Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, meanwhile, remained upbeat on the short-term prospects.

“The markets are still having a regular correction inside an uptrend,” he wrote alongside a chart with significant levels highlighted.

“As long as Bitcoin remains above $22K, this would be sufficient to expect continuation towards $25K+.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/Twitter

Monitoring resource Material Indicators highlighted resistance on the Binance order book laddered above the spot price, with the most support at $23,000.

BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/Twitter

Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital additionally showed that BTC/USD was attempting to hold a trend line recently flipped to support on intraday timeframes.

“There hasn’t been a 3rd consecutive retest yet but BTC is still holding above the Lower High resistance,” he tweeted.

“If this price stability continues here, one could make the argument that price is slowing in the sell-side momentum against this new Lower High support.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/Twitter

U.S. dollar challenges 2023 high

U.S. stock took a more pronounced tumble on the PCE print, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index down 1.4% and 1.7%, respectively, at the time of writing.

Related: Bitcoin must leverage $1T central bank liquidity to beat sellers — Research

A welcome boost was had by the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which climbed to 105.3 on the day, its highest since Jan. 6.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView

DXY weakness characterized much of the January crypto comeback, which reversed in February in line with increased difficulty faced by Bitcoin bulls keen to hold on to 50%+ gains.

“The U.S. Dollar Index #DXY moves further into the 200-day moving average cloud,” Caleb Franzen, senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics, wrote in part of a Twitter summary.

Franzen added that the DXY “could see more upside within this range, but the entire range is potential resistance.”

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) annotated chart. Source: Caleb Franzen/Twitter

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.