Cardano

What Cardano’s Vasil hard fork means for the blockchain

Cardano’s Vasil hard fork seeks to enhance the platform’s transaction throughput speeds, DApp development capacity, security and general usability.

After several delays and some setbacks, Cardano’s long-awaited Vasil upgrade finally went live on Sept. 22. From the outside looking in, the hard fork is designed to help improve the ecosystem’s scalability and general transaction throughput capacity as well as advance Cardano’s decentralized applications (DApps) development capacity. 

To commemorate the event, an announcement was made by blockchain firm Input Output Hong Kong (IOHK) — which currently oversees the design, building and maintenance of the Cardano platform — just minutes after the development.

To obtain a more holistic overview of what the upgrade represents and its potential impact on Cardano (as well as the crypto ecosystem at large), Cointelegraph reached out to Shahaf Bar-Geffen, CEO of COTI, a protocol for creating decentralized payment networks and stablecoins. In his view:

“The Vasil Upgrade heralds the dawn of a new era for the Cardano ecosystem and the decentralized finance space at large. The upgrade aims to improve the network’s scalability and enhance Cardano’s smart contract capabilities.”

Bar-Geffen further noted that the hard fork will significantly improve the efficiency of Djed, an algorithmic stablecoin developed jointly by IOHK and the COTI Group, increasing the number of transactions carried out on the Djed platform and thus helping position Cardano as a prime contender for stablecoin transactions.

A closer look at what Vasil has to offer

Before looking at the functional and operational benefits afforded by the Vasil hard fork, it would be best to understand what exactly a hard fork is. In its most basic sense, a hard fork is a network upgrade set in motion when those governing a blockchain platform decide to add or fix certain features to the ecosystem. 

In other words, when a hard fork takes place, the network splits into two versions that run separately, where one version follows existing features and rules while the other continues as an upgraded version of the network. 

Expounding her view on the technical aspects of the upgrade, Charmyn Ho, head of crypto insights for cryptocurrency exchange Bybit, told Cointelegraph that at the application layer, Cardano’s Vasil hard fork aims to bolster the network’s current smart contracts to curate a better experience for both users and developers alike, adding:

“This will simultaneously lead to a more efficient building process with regard to applications on the chain. At the infrastructure level, the many upgrades that come with the Vasil hard fork will allow Cardano to increase its block size and TPS whilst maintaining its POS mechanism.”

Ho further highlighted that the Vasil hard fork is aimed not just at improving the scalability of the chain and optimizing its existing features but also at bolstering the network’s stability and connectivity. “This is a huge and prominent step forward for Cardano as the upgrade is expected to reduce the network’s transaction costs while increasing transaction speeds,” she added. 

Recent: Ethereum post-Merge hard forks are here — Now what?

Lastly, it is worth noting that Vasil is not Cardano’s first major network upgrade because a year or so ago, the project witnessed the launch of another hard fork called Alonzo, which was designed to allow users to devise DApps using smart contracts. The Alonzo upgrade, alongside many other developments, was Cardano’s way of providing users with an attractive alternative to Ethereum, another platform that allows for the seamless development of novel applications using smart contracts.

Why is Vasil so important?

Named after a prominent member of the Cardano community who passed away in 2021, Vasil St. Dabov, the upgrade will enhance the ecosystem’s transaction throughput, efficiency and block latency speeds. Furthermore, the hard fork will see the implementation of a technique called diffusion pipelining, which seeks to improve block propagation times while increasing the network’s transaction processing capabilities.

The Vasil hard fork will introduce three key Cardano Improvement Proposals (CIPs), namely CIP-31, CIP-32 and CIP-33. In this regard, CIP-31 will spur the introduction of a new reference input mechanism that will allow DApps to access transactional output data without having to recreate it as before, making the entire process extremely streamlined and time-saving. At the same time, CIP-32 is designed to enhance Cardano’s native decentralization levels by introducing an on-chain data storage feature for network participants.

CIP-33 will make transactions lighter by making changes to the system’s native programming script, allowing for faster processing as well as reduced fees. Lastly, another improvement called CIP-40 will be introduced as part of Vasil. It will introduce a new output transaction mechanism to help improve block transmission without full validation.

Other updates include an enhancement of Cardano’s native smart contract programming language Plutus, which will now be more functionally advanced than its previous iteration. Not only that, Vasil will also improve the platform’s security by making it easier to interface with Cardano’s UTXO model (which has been built to resemble that of Bitcoin) while keeping its transaction load off-chain.

Potential effects on ADA

While the first round of the hard fork started on Sept. 22, the remaining upgrades are set to take effect on Sept 27. To this point, the second phase of the hard fork will look to redefine Plutus’ cost model, which has a direct effect on the processing power and memory fees required to govern Cardano’s native smart contracts.

In addition to the Vasil upgrade, the Cardano team revealed that it has been working tirelessly on the development of its layer-2 scaling solution — the Hydra head protocol — which is capable of processing transactions from the Cardano blockchain while still making use of it as its core security and settlement layer.

To this point, a recent update by the Cardano team revealed it had successfully addressed a known issue with Hydra’s node framework. As things stand, the protocol does not have a fixed release date. However, the IOHK team has hinted that the offering could make its way into the market sometime in late 2022 or the first quarter of 2023.

Recent: El Salvador’s Bitcoin decision: Tracking adoption a year later

Vasil was originally slated to go live earlier this year but faced numerous setbacks. Even though the upgrade is live now, the ecosystem continues to reel in from the impact of these delays. For example, since the start of 2020, Cardano’s native cryptocurrency, ADA, has continued to witness a dip in its transaction volume. Not only that, but from a purely price-performance standpoint, the upgrade has not been able to do much in terms of spurring ADA’s value, with the currency trading down less than 1% on the week.

Despite ADA’s price action continuing to remain quite lackluster, the fact that the Cardano ecosystem has made such tremendous strides over the past year shows that the project seems to be primed for big things in the near to mid-term.

Cardano bulls run out of steam after Vasil hard fork — 40% ADA price crash in play

Most Cardano hard forks have preceded ADA price crashes, and Vasil looks no different.

Cardano’s (ADA) long-awaited Vasil update went live on Sept. 22, which promises to make its blockchain more scalable and cheaper than before. However, this has failed to bring bullish momentum to the ADA market.

Sell-the-news hampers Cardano

ADA’s price has dropped by approximately 9.5% since the update and was changing hands for $0.43 on Sept. 26. The ADA/USD pair’s drop was accompanied by a rejection candlestick on its daily price chart, confirmed by a brief rally to $0.48 on the day of the fork and a sharp correction thereafter.

ADA/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

ADA bulls’ muted reaction to the successful Vasil update is similar to what transpired across the Ether (ETH) market after Ethereum’s Merge.

In other words, a buy the rumor, sell the news event, resembling most of Cardano’s previous hard forks, which have a history of preceding ADA price crashes, as shown below.

ADA/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

In addition, macro risks led by a very hawkish Federal Reserve also weighed down ADA’s bullish expectations post-Vasil.

The U.S. central bank’s decision to raise its benchmark rates by another 0.75% came within 48 hours before the Cardano update. ADA fell alongside risk-on assets in response, given its consistent positive correlation with stocks throughout 2022.

As of Sept. 26, the correlation coefficient between the Cardano token and the Nasdaq Composite was 0.83.

ADA/USD and Nasdaq daily correlation coefficient. Source: TradingView

ADA price eyes 40% crash

Meanwhile, ADA’s technicals are painting a descending triangle pattern for a bearish outlook in the near term.

Related: Charles Hoskinson and ETH dev get into a war of words post-Vasil upgrade

Theoretically, a descending triangle in a downtrend acts as a bearish continuation signal, meaning it resolves after the price breaks below its support trendline decisively. In doing so, the price falls by as much as the maximum triangle height.

ADA/USD three-day price chart featuring descending triangle breakdown setup. Source: TradingView

Therefore, a breakdown below ADA’s triangle support of $0.41 could have its price crash toward $0.25. In other words, a 40% price decline by the end of 2022.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Charles Hoskinson and Ethereum dev get into a war of words post-Vasil upgrade

Hoskinson called the Ethereum Merge a flawed PoS implementation, claiming custodial staking would create issues for the network in the long run.

Charles Hoskinson, founder of Cardano and co-founder of Ethereum, got into a war of words with Ethereum developers on the implementation of the proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus via the Ethereum Merge.

On Sunday, Web3 investor Evan Van Ness shared an unpopular opinion, claiming that the Ethereum Merge could have been shipped earlier. Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, agreed with Van Ness’s comments and said they should have implemented an NXT-like chain-based PoS consensus.

Hoskinson joined in the conversation, claiming Ethereum developers should have implemented the Snow White protocol to ensure a faster migration to PoS.

Snow White, a protocol Hoskinson has advocated for years, is one of the first protocols to provide end-to-end, formal proofs of security for a PoS system. But Hoskinson’s response opened a can of worms, which later led to a heated debate between the Cardano founder and Van Ness, along with other Ethereum developers

Hoskinson claimed that his ideas regarding the technical upgrades on the Ethereum network from 2014 still hold better than what the Ethereum network has upgraded to post Merge. Van Ness quickly reminded Hoskinson that he was fired from Ethereum within six months because of his poor behavior and lack of any significant technical contribution.

Related: Cardano Vasil upgrade ready with all ‘critical mass indicators’ achieved

Earlier on Monday, Hoskinson, in a Twitter thread, accused Ethereum developers of ignoring Ouroboros  — a secure PoS blockchain and the first protocol to be based on peer-reviewed research — throughout the last five years. He also claimed that the current version of its PoS upgrade with custodial staking is a bad design.

Ethereum core developer Hudson Jameson called out Hoskinson’s claims regarding the Ouroboros protocol implementation. He even said that Ethereum devs disliked Cardano primarily because of his “attitude and actions as the face of Cardano.”

Jameson then reminded Hoskinson of his poor treatment of the Ethereum Classic community and asked him to quit playing the victim.

Hoskinson is known for his hot takes on his former project, and the war of words between the two communities is nothing new. However, with both blockchains undergoing key upgrades on their networks, the recent exchange between the two sides highlights the disconnect between blockchain communities.

Fork, yeah! Cardano Vasil upgrade goes live

Cardano’s newest hard fork is the blockchain’s most significant update since adding smart contract functionality last September.

After several months of delays, the Cardano Vasil upgrade and hard fork has finally gone live as of Thursday at 9:44 pm UTC, bringing “significant performance and capability” enhancements to the blockchain.

The success of the Cardano mainnet hard fork was announced by blockchain company Input Output Hong Kong (IOHK) on Twitter on Thursday, while others also observed the hard fork tick over in a live Twitter Spaces with Cardano co-founder Charles Hoskinson.

IOHK previously stated the significant upgrades brought by the fork is block transmission without full validation, allowing for faster block creation. Upgrades to its Plutus smart contracts for increased efficiency also allow decentralized applications to deploy and run at lower costs.

New capabilities brought by the Plutus script upgrades will become available for developers on the mainnet on Sept. 27, after one epoch, which currently lasts around five days.

Bill Barhydt, founder of crypto trading platform Abra, called the upgrade a “big win for developers” with decentralized finance (DeFi) platform Genius Yield, tweeting it was “one of the most complex and consequential updates to the Cardano network ever done.”

The date for the upgrade was announced in early September by IOHK, while the “critical mass indicators” needed to trigger the hard fork were reached in the 24 hours leading up to the event.

Related: Ethereum post-Merge hard forks are here: Now what?

It comes after months of delays and reschedules, with the launch day originally slated for June, it was twice delayed due to issues on the testnet caused by bugs in a prior node version creating compatibility issues.

Following the Vasil upgrade, Cardano is continuing to develop its layer-2 scaling solution, the Hydra head protocol, which processes transactions off the Cardano blockchain whilst still using it as the security and settlement layer.

The latest update on Hydra from Sept. 16 detailed the team addressed a known issue with the Hydra nodes. The protocol has no set launch date, but it’s intended for some time in late 2022 or the first quarter of 2023.

The announcement of the successful launch sent the price of Cardano (ADA) upward by nearly 4% over the last 24 hours to $0.46, according to CoinGecko data, although it is still down over 4.5% on the week.

Cardano Vasil upgrade ready with all ‘critical mass indicators’ achieved

With the countdown now under 24 hours for Cardano’s most ambitious upgrade, all three metrics necessary to launch the awaited Vasil upgrade have been met.

The Cardano Vasil upgrade is set to take place in less than 24 hours on Thursday, with the Cardano team noting all three “critical mass indicators” needed to trigger the upgrade are now met.

A Wednesday update on Twitter by the company behind Cardano, Input Output Hong Kong (IOHK), states that within the last 48 hours, 13 cryptocurrency exchanges had confirmed their readiness for the hard fork, representing over 87% of Cardano’s (ADA) liquidity.

Of the top exchanges for ADA liquidity, Coinbase is the only exchange listed as “in progress” regarding its integration status, according to an ecosystem readiness page by IOHK.

However, a recent tweet by Coinbase has already hinted that it will support the fork, saying ADA transactions will be halted for maintenance “for the Cardano Vasil hard fork.”

Originally intended for a June launch, the Vasil upgrade has seen its launch day twice rescheduled, most recently due to a bug discovered in Cardano’s prior node version, which created incompatibility issues.

With an updated Vasil node in place, over 98% of mainnet blocks are now being created by the updated nodes, while the blockchain’s top decentralized applications (DApps) have also confirmed their readiness, marking all three metrics needed for the upgrade go-ahead. 

News of the upgrade has seen social media chatter about ADA increase by 35.16% over the past seven days from Monday, according to market intelligence platform Santiment, third behind Ripple and Ethereum.

Once live, the upgrade will be the blockchain’s most significant since its Alonzo hard fork in September last year, which brought functionality for smart contracts for the first time. This upgrade aims to bring smart contract enhancements, reduced costs and increased throughput on the network.

IOHK said one of the most significant upgrades brought by the fork is faster block creation as they can be transmitted without full validation.

Related: Cardano outranks Bitcoin in global top intimate brands in new report

The Vasil upgrade is named after the late artist Vasil Stoyanov Dabov, a Cardano community member and ambassador who passed away in December 2021 due to a pulmonary embolism.

Currently, ADA’s price sits at $0.44, according to CoinGecko, down 3.4% over 24 hours and down over 85% from its $3.09 all-time high on Sept. 2, 2021.

Price analysis 9/21: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, MATIC, SHIB

Bitcoin and altcoins rallied ahead of the Fed’s rate hike decision, indicating that traders viewed the 0.75% rate hike as a “priced-in” event.

The Federal Reserve hiked rates by 75 basis points on Sept. 21 and Fed Chair Jerome Powell projected another 125 basis points increase before the end of the year. If that happens, it will take the benchmark rate to 4.4% by the end of the year, which is sharply higher than the June estimates of 3.8%. The Fed also intimated that it only expects rate cuts to be considered in 2024.

The expectation of higher rates pushed the 2-year Treasury to 4.1%, its highest level since 2007. This could attract several investors who are looking for safety in this uncertain macro environment. Higher rates are also likely to reduce the appeal of risky assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies and may delay the start of a new uptrend.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Even though Bitcoin (BTC) faces several headwinds in the near term, it did not deter MicroStrategy from buying more coins. After the latest purchase of 301 Bitcoin, the company’s stash has risen to 130,000 Bitcoin. This shows that MicroStrategy and its executive chairman, Michael Saylor, remain bullish on the long-term prospects of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin and altcoins are trying to stabilize after the Fed’s announcement. Could they start a recovery? Let’s study the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin plunged below the immediate support at $18,626 on Sept. 19 but the long tail on the candlestick shows strong buying at lower levels. The bulls again defended the level on Sept. 21, which is a positive sign.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Buyers will have to push the price above the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) ($20,100) to indicate that the sellers may be losing their grip. The BTC/USDT pair could then rise to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($21,363). This level may again act as a stiff resistance but if bulls overcome this barrier, the pair could rally to $25,211.

If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the bears will again try to sink the pair below the strong support zone between $18,626 and $17,622. If they succeed, the pair may witness panic selling and could drop to $14,000.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) has been declining in a descending channel pattern for the past few days. The price bounced off the support line of the channel on Sept. 19, indicating buying on dips.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls are attempting to start a relief rally, which could pick up strength above $1,400. If this level is conquered, the ETH/USDT pair could rise to the 20-day EMA ($1,513). This level could be the real test for the bulls in the near term because a break above it could clear the path for a possible rally to the resistance line of the channel.

If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. That could sink the price to the support line of the channel. If this support fails to hold up, the pair could plummet to $1,000.

BNB/USDT

BNB is correcting inside a descending channel pattern. The strong bounce off $258 is a positive sign as it indicates demand at lower levels.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls will attempt to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($278) and challenge the resistance line of the channel. The 50-day SMA ($293) is placed just above the channel; hence, the bears are expected to defend the level aggressively.

If the price turns down from the resistance line, the BNB/USDT pair could again drop to $258. If this support cracks, the pair could slide to the support line of the channel.

The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the channel to improve the prospects of a rally to the stiff overhead resistance at $338.

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) broke and closed above the overhead resistance at $0.41 on Sept. 20 but the bulls could not build upon this strength. The bears pulled the price back into the range on Sept. 21.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the bulls do not give up much ground from the current level, it will increase the possibility of a break above $0.41. The 20-day EMA ($0.36) has started to turn up and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If the price breaks and sustains above $0.41, the XRP/USDT pair could reach $0.46 and then $0.52.

The bears will have to sink the price below the moving averages to suggest that the pair may continue to oscillate inside the range for some more time.

ADA/USDT

Buyers are trying to sustain Cardano (ADA) above the uptrend line. The bulls tried to push the price higher on Sept. 21 but the long wick on the candlestick shows that bears are selling on intraday rallies.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price continues lower and slips below the uptrend line, the ADA/USDT pair could drop to the pivotal level at $0.40. If bears sink the price below this support, the pair could start the next leg of the downtrend.

On the upside, if bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rally to the downtrend line. Buyers will have to thrust the price above this resistance to gain the upper hand. The pair could then rise to $0.52 and thereafter to $0.60.

SOL/USDT

Solana (SOL) bounced off the immediate support at $30 but the bulls could not push the price above the 20-day EMA ($33). This indicates that bears are active at higher levels.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

A minor positive is that the bulls have not given up and are again trying to propel the price above the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, the SOL/USDT pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($36). The bears may attempt to defend the zone between the 50-day SMA and $39 because if they fail to do so, the pair may soar to $48.

To invalidate this bullish view, bears will have to pull the price below $30. That could sink the pair to the important level at $26. If this support gives way, the pair could resume the downtrend.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) is getting squeezed between the 20-day EMA ($0.06) and the immediate support at $0.06. This suggests that the bulls are buying the dips but they continue to face strong resistance from the bears on every minor rally.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that buyers are making a comeback. The DOGE/USDT pair could then rise to the 50-day SMA ($0.07) where the bears will again try to stall the recovery. The bulls will have to overcome this obstacle to open the doors for a possible rally to $0.09.

If the price turns down and breaks below the strong support at $0.06, it will indicate that the uncertainty has resolved in favor of the bears. The pair could then decline to the crucial support at $0.05.

Related: Crypto and stocks soften ahead of Fed rate hike, but XRP, ALGO and LDO look ‘interesting’

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) has been consolidating between $6 and $10 for the past several days. The price has slipped to the critical support at $6, which had held successfully in mid-July.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Buyers are expected to defend the $6 level with vigor because a break and close below it could signal the resumption of the downtrend. The DOT/USDT pair could then decline to the next major support at $4.

Alternatively, if the price rebounds off the current level and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest accumulation at lower levels. The pair could then rise to the 50-day SMA ($7.69). A break above this level could clear the path for a possible rally to $10.

MATIC/USDT

Polygon (MATIC) has been trading inside a large range between $0.72 and $1.05 for the past several days. The price has currently reached the support of the range.

MATIC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price bounces off $0.72, the pair could reach the 20-day EMA. This is an important level to keep an eye on in the short term. If the price turns down from this resistance, the likelihood of a break below $0.72 increases. The MATIC/USDT pair could then drop to $0.62 and later to $0.52.

On the contrary, if the price rises above the moving averages, it will suggest strong demand at lower levels. That could keep the pair stuck inside the range for a few more days.

SHIB/USDT

Shiba Inu (SHIB) bounced off the immediate support at $0.000010 on Sept. 18 but the bears stalled the recovery at $0.000011. The bears will again attempt to sink the price below the support at $0.000010.

SHIB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The downsloping 20-day EMA ($0.000012) and the RSI in the negative zone suggest that bears are in command. If the price slips and sustains below $0.000010, the SHIB/USDT pair could extend its decline to the vital support at $0.000007.

If bulls want to avert this collapse, they will have to quickly push the price above the 20-day EMA. The pair could then rise to $0.000014 where the bears may again mount a stiff resistance. If the price turns down from this level, the pair may consolidate between $0.000010 and $0.000014 for some time.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

Price analysis 9/19: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, MATIC, SHIB

Uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate hike is keeping Bitcoin and altcoins under pressure. This could change if the expected 0.75% bps hike is selected.

The United States equities markets and the crypto markets are likely to remain volatile in the near term because traders remain nervous about the size of the next Federal Reserve rate hike on Sept. 20 and 21. While the majority favors a 75 basis point rate hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, some analysts expect the Fed to hike rates by 100 basis points, the first such instance since the early 1980s.

Many expect Bitcoin (BTC) to continue its slide and drop below the June low in the future. Although anything is possible in the markets, many times, the markets do not oblige the majority. If the Fed does not surprise the markets, traders who may be cautious and sitting on the sidelines could jump right back in, resulting in a brief relief recovery.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Bear markets offer an opportunity for investors to accumulate in the long term. It is futile to catch the bottom, hence, traders may be on the lookout to start accumulating during periods of extreme pessimism. A strong stomach is needed to tide over the volatility but the ones who do that are likely to benefit when the next bull run begins.

Could Bitcoin and altcoins stage a turnaround or is a deeper decline possible? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin has been in a strong downtrend for several months. Buyers started a recovery from the June low at $17,622 and pushed the price above the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) but they could not sustain the higher levels.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls again tried to push the price above the 200-week SMA last week but the bears held their ground. This shows that bears are defending the 200-week SMA with vigor. Hence, this level becomes a key resistance to watch for on the upside.

On the downside, the bulls are expected to aggressively defend the support at $17,622. The first sign of strength will be a break and close above $20,000. That will suggest a range-bound action for the BTC/USDT pair between $17,622 and $25,211.

A trend change will be signaled after buyers propel the price above $25,211. The pair could then rally to $32,000.

Conversely, if bears sink and sustain the price below $17,622, it could signal the resumption of the downtrend. The pair could then decline to $14,000.

ETH/USDT

The bears have been defending the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) ($1,732) for the past few weeks. This suggests that the sentiment in Ether (ETH) remains bearish and traders are selling on rallies.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The ETH/USDT pair turned down sharply from the 20-week EMA last week and has reached the 200-week SMA ($1,283). Buyers are expected to defend this level vigorously.

The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the 20-week EMA to indicate that the bears may be losing their grip. A potential trend change could be signaled on a break above $2,030. Until then, the bears are likely to sell on every rally.

If the price breaks below the 200-week SMA, the selling could intensify and the bears will try to pull the price to the June low of $881. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because a break below it could result in panic selling.

BNB/USDT

BNB is one of the outperformers among the major cryptocurrencies as it is trading well above its 200-week SMA ($175). Buyers pushed the price above the 20-week EMA ($295) but they could not build upon this strength. The bears stalled the recovery at $338 and pulled the price back below the 20-week EMA.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Since then, the bears have thwarted several attempts by the bulls to drive the price back above the 20-week EMA. This indicates that bears are selling the rallies to the 20-week EMA. The bears will attempt to sink the BNB/USDT pair to the 200-week SMA, which is likely to attract strong buying by the bulls.

The first sign of strength will be a break above the 20-week EMA. That could clear the path for a retest of $338. The bulls will have to clear this overhead hurdle to suggest the start of a new up-move.

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) has been consolidating in a downtrend for the past few weeks. Buyers attempted to push the price above the resistance of the range at $0.41 last week but the bears successfully defended the level.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The sellers will try to pull the price to the support at $0.30. This remains the important level to keep an eye on because if bears sink the price below $0.30, the XRP/USDT pair could begin the next leg of the downtrend. The pair could then decline to $0.24 and later to $0.17.

The 20-week EMA is flattening out, indicating that the selling pressure could be weakening. If the price rebounds off $0.30, the pair could extend its stay inside the range for a few more days. Buyers will have to push and sustain the price above the 200-week SMA ($0.48) to indicate that the pair may have bottomed out.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) has been trading below the moving averages for the past few weeks. Attempts by the bulls to push the price above the 200-week SMA ($0.57) were met with strong selling by the bears.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Although the bulls have held the $0.40 support for the past several weeks, the failure to push the price above the 200-week SMA indicates that bears are selling on rallies. The bears will try to sink the price below the support at $0.40. If they succeed, the ADA/USDT pair could resume its downtrend. The next support on the downside is $0.33 and then $0.28.

If bulls want to avert this catastrophe, they will have to quickly push the price above the 200-week SMA. The bears may again attempt to pose a strong challenge at $0.70 but if bulls overcome this barrier, the pair may indicate the start of a new uptrend. The pair could first rise to the 50-week SMA ($0.96) and thereafter to $1.25.

SOL/USDT

Solana (SOL) rallied from the June low of $26 but the recovery fizzled out near $48. The failure of the bulls to push the price to the 20-week EMA ($46) suggests that bears are selling on minor rallies.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears will try to pull the price to the crucial support of $26, which has not been tested since June. If this support cracks, the selling could pick up momentum and the SOL/USDT pair could drop to $20. The bulls are likely to defend this level aggressively.

Alternatively, if the price turns up from the current level or rebounds off $26, the bulls will again try to drive the pair to the overhead resistance at $48. Buyers will have to clear this obstacle to indicate the start of a new uptrend. The pair could then attempt a rally to $78.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) recovered from $0.05 in June and reached the 20-week EMA ($0.08) in August but the bulls could not push the price above this resistance. The bears aggressively defended the level and are trying to sink the price back to $0.05.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the $0.05 support gives way, the DOGE/USDT pair could resume its downtrend. The next support on the downside is at $0.04 but if bulls fail to defend this level, the selling could intensify and the pair could collapse below $0.01.

There is a small ray of hope for the bulls because the RSI is attempting to form a positive divergence. This suggests that the selling pressure could be reducing. If the price rebounds off $0.05, the bulls will again try to propel the pair above $0.09. If that happens, the pair could rise to the 50-week SMA ($0.13).

Related: XRP price risks 30% decline despite Ripple’s legal win prospects

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) has been consolidating between $6 and $10 for the past few weeks. Usually in a range, traders buy the dips to the support and sell near the overhead resistance.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price rebounds off the $6 support with strength, it will suggest that buyers are accumulating on dips. That could keep the DOT/USDT pair stuck inside the range for some more time. The longer the price trades inside a range, the stronger will be the eventual breakout from it.

If buyers propel the price above $10, it will suggest that the downtrend could be ending. That could clear the path for a possible rally to the 50-week SMA ($19).

Contrarily, if the price slips below the $6 support, the pair could start the next leg of the downtrend. The pair could then drop to the $3.50 to $4 support zone.

MATIC/USDT

Polygon (MATIC) moved up sharply from $0.31 in June and broke above the 20-week EMA ($0.87) but the buyers could not extend the recovery. The bears stalled the relief rally at $1.05 and pulled the price back below the 20-week EMA.

MATIC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls again tried to thrust and sustain the price above the 20-week EMA last week but the bears did not relent. They sold aggressively and have pulled the price to the immediate support of $0.72. If this support breaks down, the MATIC/USDT pair could slide to $0.45 and then to $0.31.

On the contrary, if the price rises from the current level and breaks above the 20-week EMA, the pair could challenge the overhead resistance at $1.05. A break and close above this level will suggest that the downtrend may be over. The price could then rally to the 50-week SMA ($1.31) and after that to $1.75.

SHIB/USDT

Shiba Inu (SHIB) rallied sharply from its June low and rose above the 20-week EMA ($0.000013) in August. However, the breakout proved to be a bear trap as the price turned down from $0.000018 and slipped back below the 20-week EMA.

SHIB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Even though the price has been trading below the 20-week EMA, the bulls have not allowed the SHIB/USDT pair to retest the June low at $0.000007. This indicates that buyers are attempting to form a higher low.

The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-week EMA. The pair could then rally to $0.000018. If bulls drive the price above this resistance, it will suggest a potential trend change. The pair could then surge to $0.000030.

This positive view could invalidate if the price continues lower and breaks below $0.000007. That could sink the pair to $0.000005.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

Ethereum Merge: Community reacts with memes, GIFs and tributes

Ethereum followers and competitors alike have found their own way to congratulate the Ethereum team on a successful Merge.

It’s been less than a day since Ethereum’s historic transition to proof-of-stake, with most of the crypto community still abuzz with excitement following the successful Merge.

On Thursday at 06:42:42 UTC, the last Ethereum block using the old proof-of-work (PoW) consensus mechanism was mined. Replacing it is an energy-efficient proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus mechanism.

Many crypto enthusiasts and climate advocates worldwide have been thrilled by the positive impact it will have on the environment and thus, crypto’s reputation.

Others have just been in awe of the technological feat of upgrading an entire blockchain network without any stoppages.

Uniswap Labs founder and CEO Hayden Adams told his 232,200 Twitter followers on Thursday that the reduction of Ethereum’s energy usage “will improve the network’s public image” more so than anything else in its “entire history.”

According to the Ethereum Foundation, Ethereum’s new PoS consensus mechanism is set to reduce the energy consumption of the entire network by 99.95%.

Adams believes that “people are massively underestimating this aspect of the Merge.”

Ripple Labs CEO Brad Garlinghouse on Twitter called it a “truly incredible technological feat,” and NFT company Yuga Labs told its followers this was a “big step” in scaling Ethereum to its “first billion users.”

Nischal Shetty, founder and CEO of Indian crypto exchange WazirX shared his congratulations, remarking that Ethereum is the “OG of smart contracts” and has played a massive role in building the Web3 ecosystem.

Even the Twitter account behind Dogecoin (DOGE), now the second-largest PoW cryptocurrency by market capitalization, shared its “much congratz” to Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and all those involved in the Merge.

Others however, have been skeptical about about Ethereum’s new consensus mechanism.

Independent journalist Jordan Schachtel said the Merge effectively transitioned Ethereum into a “WEF (World Economic Forum) coin” which will “by design, puts all value and control in the hands of the people at the top.”

Cardano enthusiasts at the Twitter account Cardanians_io said that the Ethereum Merge will do nothing to change its high transaction fees and scalability issues.

The account added that Cardano’s Vasil fork would improve the Cardano network’s scalability. The account shared that “Ethereum is essentially catching up to Cardano.”

Related: Community celebrates the Merge by dropping ETH-inspired art and music

Earlier this week, StarkWare president and co-founder Eli Ben-Sasson told Cointelegraph that Ethereum’s Merge is “like completing the launch of a rocket” in that there will still be a journey ahead of us.

The Merge was the first step in this five-part process that will eventually bring the smart contract blockchain to an “endgame” of Ethereum’s development, according to Buterin.

Price analysis 9/14: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, MATIC, SHIB

Bitcoin is struggling to find support in the $20,000 zone, which is negatively impacting investor sentiment and weighing on most altcoin prices.

The United States equities markets and the cryptocurrency markets had been rising leading up to the Sept. 13 release of the August Consumer Price Index data, but the rally fell apart once the data showed inflation rising, rather than falling.

The negative data dashed any hope of a Federal Reserve pivot in the near term and it triggered a sharp decline in risky assets. The market capitalization of U.S. stocks plunged by about $1.6 trillion on Sept. 13 and the market cap of the cryptocurrency markets slipped below $1 trillion.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Statistician and independent market analyst Willy Woo believes that Bitcoin (BTC) may have to fall further before it reaches the maximum pain experienced during previous bottoms. Woo expects Bitcoin price to decline below $10,000.

Could Bitcoin and altcoins resume their downtrend? Let’s study the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin broke above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA)($21,902) on Sept. 12, but this proved to be a bull trap. Buyers attempted to extend the recovery on Sept. 13 but the rally reversed direction from $22,799.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Aggressive selling by the bears pulled the price back below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($20,722). A minor positive is that the bulls are attempting to stall the decline at $20,000.

If buyers push the price back above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that lower levels continue to attract buyers. The BTC/USDT pair will then attempt to rise to the 50-day SMA and later retest $22,799. A break and close above this resistance could open the doors for a possible rally to $25,211.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price slips below $19,860, the pair could drop to the $18,510 to $17,622 zone. The bulls are expected to defend this zone with vigor.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) turned down and plummeted below the moving averages on Sept. 13, tilting the short-term advantage in favor of the bears. A minor positive is that the bulls are attempting to defend the support line of the rising wedge pattern.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price rebounds off the current level and rises above the moving averages, the ETH/USDT pair could rally to the resistance line of the wedge. The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the wedge to clear the path for a possible rally to $2,030.

Alternatively, if the price fails to cross above the moving averages, the likelihood of a drop below the bearish wedge pattern increases. If that happens, the selling pressure could pick up and the pair could drop to $1,422 and later to $1,280. Buyers are expected to mount a strong defense at this level.

BNB/USDT

BNB turned down from $300 on Sept. 12 and plunged below the moving averages on Sept. 13. This tilted the short-term advantage in favor of the bears but the bulls have not yet given up.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Buyers are attempting to defend the immediate support at $275 and push the price above the 20-day EMA ($285). If they succeed, the BNB/USDT pair could challenge the $300 to $307.50 resistance zone. If buyers clear this zone, the rally could pick up momentum.

Conversely, if bulls fail to push the price above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears are selling on minor rallies. That could enhance the prospects of a break below $275. If that happens, the pair could decline to $258 and then to $240.

XRP/USDT

After trading near the 50-day SMA ($0.35) for three days, Ripple (XRP) turned down and broke below the moving averages on Sept. 13. This pulled the price below the breakout level of $0.34.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Buyers are trying to push the price back above the 20-day EMA ($0.34) on Sept. 14. If they succeed, it will suggest that the XRP/USDT pair has formed a higher low at $0.33. The pair could then retest the overhead resistance at $0.36. A break and close above this level could push the pair toward $0.39.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears are selling on minor rallies. That could pull the price down to the strong support at $0.32.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) rose above the 50-day SMA ($0.49) on Sept. 9 but the bulls could not continue the recovery and push the price to the downtrend line. This indicates hesitation by the bulls to buy at higher levels.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The failure to extend the recovery may have tempted short-term traders to book profits. That pulled the price back below the moving averages on Sept.13.

A minor positive is that the ADA/USDT pair rebounded off $0.46 and the bulls are attempting to push the price back above the moving averages. This indicates that lower levels continue to attract strong buying by the bulls. If the price rises above the 50-day SMA, the pair could reach the downtrend line.

This view will invalidate in the near term if the price turns down from the moving averages and plummets below $0.45. The pair could then decline to $0.42.

SOL/USDT

Buyers pushed Solana (SOL) above the 50-day SMA ($37.30) on Sept. 13 and 14 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. This shows that bears are defending the 50-day SMA with vigor.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Strong selling on Sept. 13 pulled the price below the 20-day EMA ($34). The bears will now try to sink the SOL/USDT pair to the immediate support at $30. The repeated retest of a support level tends to weaken it. If the $30 level cracks, the pair could start its descent to the vital support at $26.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rise to the 50-day SMA. The bulls will have to clear this overhead hurdle to indicate the start of an up-move to $48.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) bounced off the support zone near $0.06 on Sept. 7 but the recovery fizzled out at the 20-day EMA ($0.06). This indicates that bears are defending the moving averages aggressively.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The price turned down from the 20-day EMA on Sept. 13 and reached the support at $0.06. The bulls are expected to defend the level aggressively as a break and close below it could sink the DOGE/USDT pair to the June low at $0.05. If this support cracks, it could signal the resumption of the downtrend.

This negative view could invalidate if the price rebounds off the current level and rises above the moving averages. If that happens, the pair could attempt a rally to $0.09.

Related: Ethereum’s Merge will affect more than just its blockchain

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) repeatedly tried to rise and sustain above the 50-day SMA ($7.90) Sept. 9–13 but the bears held their ground. This indicates that the sentiment remains negative and bears are selling on rallies to resistance levels.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The failure to rise above the 50-day SMA may have attracted strong selling by the bears and profit-booking by the short-term bulls. That pulled the price back below the 20-day EMA ($7.43) on Sept. 13. The bears will now attempt to sink the DOT/USDT pair below the immediate support at $6.75 and challenge the crucial level at $6.

Alternatively, if the price rebounds off the current level and rises above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bulls continue to buy on dips. The bulls will then again try to overcome the barrier at the 50-day SMA and start a rally toward $10.

MATIC/USDT

Polygon (MATIC) has been stuck inside a large range between $0.75 and $1.05 for the past several weeks. Both moving averages have flattened out and the relative strength index is near the midpoint, indicating a balance between buyers and sellers.

MATIC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The MATIC/USDT pair has been attempting to rise inside an ascending channel for the past few days. If the price plummets below the channel, it will signal a minor advantage to the bears. The pair could then decline to the strong support at $0.75.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price rebounds off the current level and rises above the moving averages, the pair could reach the resistance line of the channel. A break and close above the channel could open the doors for a possible rally to $1.05.

SHIB/USDT

Shiba Inu (SHIB) managed to stay above the moving averages between Sept. 9 and12 but the bulls could not build upon this strength and clear the overhead hurdle at the downtrend line. This indicates a lack of demand at higher levels.

SHIB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The price plunged back below the moving averages on Sept. 13 and the bears will now attempt to pull the SHIB/USDT pair below the strong support at $0.000012. If they succeed, the pair will complete a descending triangle pattern. This bearish setup has a target objective of $0.000009.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price rebounds off the current level and breaks above the moving averages, the pair could reach the downtrend line. A break and close above this level will invalidate the bearish setup and clear the path for a rally to $0.000018.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

Nifty News: Shitposters set for DRAMA rewards, Zuck’s little league card tokenize and more

Mark Zuckerberg’s little league baseball card has been tokenized and will be put up for auction, and Lamborghini has introduced a new utility for its second round of NFTs.

Solana-based nonfungible token (NFT) project Outcast Academy has started dishing its newly launched $DRAMA tokens, rewarding the most popular shitposters on Twitter as nominated by the community.

Outcast Academy describes itself as an “entertainment NFT experiment” and has launched DRAMA tokens as part of its “shitpost-to-earn” ecosystem, allowing community members to tag its associated DramaReward bot account to nominate their favorite tweets from Twitter shitposters.

The nominated Twitter years would be able to receive free airdropped DRAMA tokens.

However, the specific details of the rewards, how many nominations are required and other details have not yet been outlined.

Shitposting generally refers to people that post content that is ironic, satirical, sarcastic or just a pure troll to invoke certain reactions, and this new NFT project is aiming to reward such behavior.

The project notably has backing from VaynerMedia, the marketing and media agency belonging to NFT proponent and popular entrepreneur Gary Vaynerchuck.

Outcast Academy is also set for its first NFT release later this month, with a collection of 5,000 NFT avatars that depict various high school archetypes such as nerds, jocks and rebels.

The project states it is keeping the utility behind the NFTs “hush-hush” at this stage but notes that it is building an “entertain-to-earn ecosystem.”

Muck Zuckerberg’s tokenized little league baseball card

A little league baseball card featuring Meta founder Mark Zuckerberg is set for auction on Sept. 24 via an online collectibles marketplace. 

The card features a photo of Zuckerberg aged eight, donning a baseball uniform with a bat in hand. These cards are generally made as novelty items for young baseball players, and Zuckerberg is to have signed his card and given it to his camp counselor at the time.

The card has since been minted as an NFT and is set to be auctioned off via the online collectibles marketplace ComicConnect. The auction isn’t sanctioned by the man himself.

Little league Zuck: ComicConnect

“There’s nothing remotely like it. Mark Zuckerberg has impacted our culture more than every MLB and NBA player combined — and this card is truly one of a kind,” noted ComicConnect co-owner Stephen Fishler in a Monday announcement.

Given that The Zuck is a divisive figure due to launching the privacy intrusive and personal data mining intensive giant on Facebook, it remains to be seen how much demand this NFT may have.

NFT lending on Cardano

Aada Finance, the first protocol set to offer NFT lending and borrowing services on the Cardano blockchain, is offering a $25,000 bug bounty competition as part of its mainnet launch on Tuesday.

Those who can spot critical smart contract vulnerabilities and provide suggestions on how to fix them will receive $25,000 worth of the protocol’s native AADA tokens.

Aada Finance says that it will offer users “peer-to-peer lending and borrowing in an order book style while fully controlling their loan requests and loans.”

Related: Bitcoin might be down but interest in crypto and NFTs is here to stay: Ledger CEO

The platform may take a while to get off the ground, however, as notable NFT action is still lacking on Cardano.

Cardano doesn’t even make the list of the top 16 selling NFT networks according to CryptoSlam, despite 16th-placed Theta generating just $117 worth of secondary sales volume over the past 24 hours.

Supercharged Lambo NFTs

Luxury sports car developer Lamborghini is set to roll out its second round of NFTs this month, this time offering specific utility for avid collectors.

Lambo enthusiasts who collect three regular tier drops of the company’s NFTs this month will receive priority access to a rare drop at the end of this month, an hour ahead of other users.

For anyone that managed to collect eight rare-tier NFTs out of the drops will receive a gold tier NFT that offers them exclusive benefits and rewards.

Virtual Lambo: Lamborghini

The incentives include a Lamborghini GLB file that enables hodlers to port a “yet to be determined” Lambo model into the Metaverse, exclusive digital artwork by Mitja Borkert, head of design of Lamborghini, and a chance to join a tour of the firm’s Sant’Agata Bolognese headquarters.

Lamborghini’s first NFT drop came in January with a series of five tokenized artworks depicting a Lamborghini Ultimae launching into space above the Earth. The NFTs eventually sold in February for nearly $660,000 combined.