Cardano

Cardano’s Vasil hard fork proposal submitted: Countdown commences

From July 3, the four-week window for application developers and exchanges to test the upcoming Cardano upgrade begins before it’s launched onto the mainnet.

Cardano Blockchain developer Input Output Hong Kong (IOHK) has submitted an updated proposal to hard fork the Cardano testnet, kicking off the countdown for the network’s Vasil mainnet upgrade.

The Vasil upgrade is slated to bring “significant performance and capability upgrades” to the blockchain, with IOHK describing the fork as the “biggest and best upgrade to date,” providing higher throughput, improved script performance for developers and lower costs.

One of the most significant updates pointed out by the team is the implementation of diffusion pipelining aimed at improving the blockchains’ scalability for decentralized applications (DApps).

The update will allow faster block creation as they can be transmitted without full validation.

If everything goes smoothly, the upgrade to the testnet will take place July 3, with the mainnet upgrade scheduled for roughly around the end of July. The Cardano community requested four weeks minimum to allow time to test and upgrade applications on the testnet. IOHK says the hard fork for the mainnet will take place “once everyone is comfortable and ready.”

The Cardano mainnet upgrade was previously supposed to take place on Wednesday but was delayed by a month on June 22, citing several outstanding bugs. IOHK has called the project the “most complex program of work we’ve undertaken.”

IOHK’s “prime concern” is ensuring the upgrade is managed in a “safe and secure” manner. It reports the Vasil node is creating over 75% of the testnet network’s blocks and believes there is “good chain density to proceed safely.”

The last significant upgrade to the blockchain was in September 2021 with the Alonzo hard fork, which brought in long-awaited smart contract functionality for the first time using Plutus scripts, a smart contract development language purpose-built for Cardano

The upgrade was widely considered to be a disappointment, as Cardano still only has 11 DApps, according to DefiLlama. The co-founder of Cardano, Charles Hoskinson, previously predicted there would be “thousands of DApps” on Cardano by 2021 and believes developers are waiting for the Vasil upgrade to launch their projects.

The Vasil node is named in honor of Vasil Stoyanov Dabov, an artist and Cardano community member and ambassador who passed away in December 2021 after a diagnosis of pulmonary embolism.

Related: Can Cardano’s July hard fork prevent ADA price from plunging 60%?

Cardano is a proof-of-stake (PoS) blockchain and is touted as a so-called “Ethereum Killer,” which aims to beat Ethereum by providing better scalability, transactions per second and lower fees.

Currently, its native coin Cardano (ADA) sits in the eighth position with a $15.7 billion market capitalization at a price of around $0.45, down 85% from its all-time high of over $3.00 in September 2021, according to data from CoinGecko.

Price analysis 6/29: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, SHIB, LEO

Bitcoin and altcoins gave up the gains of last week’s relief rally and June 29’s dip below $20,000 suggests bears are intent on pushing the market back to its yearly lows.

The United States equities markets have given back some of the gains made last week and that has pulled Bitcoin to the psychological support at $20,000. This suggests that investors are nervous to buy risky assets at higher levels.

Meanwhile, while speaking to the hosts of the Bankless podcast on June 23, Mark Cuban said that the crypto bear market could end after the price gets so cheap that investors go and start buying or an application with utility is launched that attracts users.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Several analysts expect Bitcoin to continue falling and eventually bottom out between $10,000 and $12,000. However, John Bollinger, the creator of the popular Bollinger Bands trading indicator, said that the monthly charts suggest that Bitcoin’s price has reached “a logical place to put in a bottom.”

Could bears maintain the selling pressure and pull cryptocurrency prices lower? Let’s study the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin turned down from $22,000 on June 26 and has gradually slipped to the immediate support at $19,637. This suggests that the bears remain in command and every rally is being sold into.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price breaks below $19,637, the BTC/USDT pair could be at risk of dropping to the crucial support at $17,622. This is an important level to watch out for because a break and close below it could start the next leg of the downtrend. The pair could then decline to $15,000.

On the other hand, if the price rebounds off $19,637, it will suggest demand at lower levels. The buyers will then try to push the price above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($22,393). If they succeed, the pair could rally to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($26,735).

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($1,268) on June 26, suggesting that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The downsloping moving averages and the RSI in the negative zone indicate that bears are in control. The sellers will attempt to pull the price below the immediate support at $1,050. If they succeed, the ETH/USDT pair could plunge to the June 18 intraday low of $881.

A break below this support could signal the resumption of the downtrend. The next support on the downside is at $681.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price rebounds off $1,050, it will suggest demand at lower levels. The buyers will then make another attempt to push the price above the 20-day EMA and start the journey toward $1,500 and later $1,700.

BNB/USDT

The buyers failed to push and sustain BNB above the 20-day EMA ($238) between June 24 to 28. This resulted in profit-booking, which has pulled the price to the strong support of $211.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA has started to turn down once again and the RSI has dipped into the negative territory. This suggests that bears have the upper hand. If the price slides below $211, the BNB/USDT pair could drop to the critical support of $183. If this support collapses, the pair could resume its downtrend and plummet toward $150.

Conversely, if the price rebounds off $211, it will suggest that bulls are attempting to form a higher low. A strong bounce could increase the prospects of a break above $250. The pair could then rally to the 50-day SMA ($273).

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) slipped below the breakout level of $0.35 on June 28, which suggests that bears continue to sell aggressively at higher levels.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($0.35) is flattish but the RSI has dropped below 40, suggesting that the bears have a slight edge. The sellers will attempt to pull the price to the vital support at $0.28. This is an important level to keep an eye on because if it gives way, the XRP/USDT pair could start the next leg of the downtrend.

On the contrary, if the price turns up from the current level or $0.28, it will suggest that bulls are buying at lower levels. That could keep the pair range-bound between $0.28 and the 50-day SMA ($0.38) for a few days.

ADA/USDT

The bears thwarted repeated attempts by the bulls to push Cardano (ADA) above the 20-day EMA ($0.50) in the past few days. This suggests that the bears are defending the level aggressively.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The price could drop to the strong support zone at $0.44 to $0.40. If the price rebounds off this zone with strength, it will suggest that bulls are accumulating on dips. The buyers will then again try to propel the price above the moving averages. If they can pull it off, the ADA/USDT pair could start an up-move toward $0.70.

This positive view could invalidate in the short term if bears sink the pair below the support zone. If that happens, the pair could indicate the resumption of the downtrend. The next support is at $0.33.

SOL/USDT

The tight range trading in Solana (SOL) resolved to the downside with a break below the 20-day EMA ($37). The bears are attempting to pull the price below the immediate support at $33.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If they succeed, the SOL/USDT pair could decline to $27 and then retest the June 14 intraday low of $25.86.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price rebounds off $33, it will suggest that the bulls are attempting to form a higher low. The buyers will then try to clear the overhead hurdle at $43. If that happens, the pair could signal a potential change in trend. The pair may then rise to $60 where the bears may again mount a strong defense.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) turned down from the 50-day SMA ($0.08) on June 27 and broke below the 20-day EMA ($0.07) on June 28. This suggests that bears have not given up and they continue to sell on rallies.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears will try to sink the price to $0.06. If this level cracks, the next stop could be a retest of the critical level at $0.05.

Alternatively, if the price turns up from the current level or the support at $0.06 and rises back above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bulls are attempting to form a higher low. The bullish momentum could pick up on a break above $0.08. The DOGE/USDT pair could then attempt a rally to the psychological level of $0.10.

Related: Double bubble? Terra’s defunct ‘unstablecoin’ suddenly climbs 800% in one week

DOT/USDT

Repeated failures to push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA ($7.93) may have tempted short-term traders to book profits in Polkadot (DOT). The price turned down from the 20-day EMA and slipped to $7.30 on June 28.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Both the bulls and the bears are battling it out for supremacy near the $7.30 level. If the bears come out on top, the DOT/USDT pair could drop to the crucial level of $6.36. The bulls are expected to defend this level aggressively because a break below it could signal the resumption of the downtrend.

Conversely, if the price rebounds off the current level, the buyers will again try to achieve a close above the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, the pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($8.97).

SHIB/USDT

Shiba Inu (SHIB) slipped back below the 50-day SMA ($0.000011) on June 28, suggesting that the bears are active at higher levels. Although the price dipped below $0.000010, the bears have not been able to build upon this advantage.

SHIB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

This suggests that selling dries up at lower levels. The bulls will again try to push the price above the 50-day SMA and challenge the resistance at $0.000012. A break and close above this level could open the doors for a possible rally to $0.000014.

The 20-day EMA ($0.000010) has flattened out and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. If the price slips below $0.000009, the advantage could tilt in favor of the sellers. The pair may then drop to $0.000007.

LEO/USD

UNUS SED LEO (LEO) broke and closed above the resistance line of the descending channel on June 25 but the bulls could not push the price above $6. That may have attracted profit-booking from short-term traders, which pulled the price back into the channel on June 27.

LEO/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($5.57) is sloping up and the RSI is in the positive territory, suggesting that bulls have the upper hand. The buyers are again attempting to clear the overhead hurdle at $6. If they succeed, the LEO/USD pair could rally to $6.50 and then to the pattern target at $6.90.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price once again turns down from $6, it will suggest that bears are defending this level with vigor. The sellers will then attempt to sink the price below the 20-day EMA and challenge the 50-day SMA ($5.24).

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

Price analysis 6/15: BTC, ETH, BNB, ADA, XRP, SOL, DOGE, DOT, LEO, SHIB

BTC and select altcoins notched small gains after the Federal Reserve rolled out a 75 basis point rate hike, but technical analysis suggests that further downside is the most realistic outcome.

Bitcoin (BTC) plummeted close to the crucial support of $20,000 as traders panicked and dumped their holdings, fearing an aggressive rate hike by the United States Federal Reserve on June 15. Another reason for the sell-off could be fears of possible contagion if lending platform Celsius and crypto venture capital firm Three Arrows Capital (3AC) go belly up.

Data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant showed 24-hour exchange inflows of 59,376 Bitcoin on June 14, the highest inflows since November 30, 2018. The Bitcoin miners also joined other investors in sending Bitcoin to the exchanges. The Bitcoin Miners to Exchange flow metric reached a seven-month high of 9,476, indicating that the miners may be anticipating a further fall in the near term.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Prominent investors are divided on whether a bottom has been made in Bitcoin or not. Galaxy Digital Holdings chairman and CEO Mike Novogratz believes that Bitcoin could hold $20,000 and Ether (ETH) may bottom out at $1,000. These levels were also referred to by Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former chief of BitMEX, who cautioned that if the levels crack, it may lead to “massive sell pressure in spot markets.”

What are the important levels to watch out for on Bitcoin and major altcoins? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin remains in a firm bear grip. The bulls tried to start a recovery on June 14, as seen from the long wick on the day’s candlestick, but the bears were in no mood to relent. They sold aggressively and pulled the price to $20,111 on June 15.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The sharp selling in the past few days has pulled the relative strength index (RSI) near 21. This suggests that a rebound is possible in the short term. The BTC/USDT pair could rise to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $24,562 and then to the 50% retracement level at $25,938. The bears are expected to mount a strong defense in this zone.

If the price turns down from this overhead zone, the bears will attempt to resume the downtrend by pulling the pair below $20,000. If they succeed, the pair could drop to the next support at $17,500 and later $16,000.

The buyers will have to push and sustain the price above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA)($27,748) to indicate a potential trend change.

ETH/USDT

Ether is in a strong downtrend. The buyers tried to stall the decline on June 14 but they could not sustain the higher levels. The bears renewed their selling on June 15 but the bulls are defending the psychological level of $1,000 with all their might.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The incessant selling of the past few days has pulled the RSI into deeply oversold territory. This suggests that the selling may have been overdone in the short term. This could result in a strong bear market rally that may pick up momentum above $1,268. The ETH/USDT pair could then rally to the 20-day EMA ($1,636).

Alternatively, if the price continues lower and breaks below $1,000, it will suggest the resumption of the downtrend. The pair could then drop to $900 where the bulls will again try to arrest the decline.

BNB/USDT

BNB is witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near the crucial level of $211. The bulls tried to start a rebound on June 14 but they could not sustain the higher levels.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears took advantage of this and pulled the price below $211 on June 15. Although the downsloping moving averages indicate an advantage to bears, the deeply oversold level on the RSI suggests a relief rally in the short term.

If bulls sustain the price above $211, the BNB/USDT pair could attempt a rally to the 20-day EMA ($275). A break and close above this resistance could suggest that the pair may remain stuck in a large range between $211 and $350 for some more days.

On the contrary, if the price turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA, the bears will try to resume the downtrend. The next support on the downside is at $186.

ADA/USDT

The bears tried to pull Cardano (ADA) below the support at $0.44 on June 13 and 14 but failed to sustain the lower levels. This suggests that the bulls are defending the support zone between $0.44 and $0.40 aggressively.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls will attempt to push the price above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA)($0.60). If they manage to do that, the ADA/USDT pair could rise to $0.69 and then to $0.74. The bears are likely to defend this overhead zone with vigor.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA ($0.54), it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on minor rallies.

The bears will then make one more attempt to sink the price below the support zone. If they succeed, the pair could signal the start of the next leg of the downtrend. The next support on the downside is $0.30.

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) dropped to $0.30 on June 13, which is the pattern target of the break below the descending triangle. The bears pulled the price below the support on June 14 but the bulls purchased the dip as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The buyers are attempting to start a recovery that could reach the breakdown level of $0.38. If bears flip this level into resistance, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative. The sellers will then try to resume the downtrend and sink the XRP/USDT pair to the next strong support at $0.24.

On the contrary, if bulls drive and sustain the price above $0.38, it will suggest strong buying at lower levels. The buyers will then try to push the pair to the 50-day SMA ($0.45). The bears are likely to pose a strong challenge in the zone between $0.46 and $0.50.

SOL/USDT

Solana (SOL) is trying to sustain above the $26 level. The bulls tried to push the price back above the breakdown level of $35 on June 14 but the bears held their ground. This suggests that the bears are trying to flip the $35 level into resistance.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price turns down and breaks below $26, it will suggest the resumption of the downtrend. The SOL/USDT pair could then decline to $22 and later to the psychological level at $20.

This bearish view could invalidate in the short term if buyers push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA ($38). If that happens, the aggressive bears who may have entered short positions below $35 may rush to the exit. That could result in a short squeeze and push the pair toward the overhead resistance at $60.

DOGE/USDT

The buyers are trying to sustain Dogecoin (DOGE) above the psychological level of $0.05. The deeply oversold levels on the RSI indicate that a relief rally is possible in the short term.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price rebounds off the current level, the bulls will try to push the DOGE/USDT pair to the 20-day EMA ($0.07). If the price turns down from this level, the bears will again try to resume the downtrend and sink the pair to $0.04.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price breaks above the 20-day EMA, the bullish momentum could pick up and the pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($0.09). Such a move will suggest that the pair may have bottomed out in the near term.

Related: NEXO price drops 40% in three days on contagion fears from ‘insolvent’ crypto fund

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) has been trading near the crucial support of $7.30 for the past two days. Although bears pulled the price below $7.30, they could not sustain the lower levels. This indicates strong buying on dips.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If buyers sustain the price above $7.30, the DOT/USDT pair could rise to the 20-day EMA ($8.80). This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break and close above it will suggest that the pair may consolidate between $6.36 and $12.44 for some time.

Conversely, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears are active at higher levels. A break and close below $6.36 could signal the resumption of the downtrend. The pair could then decline to $5 and later to $4.23.

LEO/USD

UNUS SED LEO (LEO) dipped below the moving averages on June 13 but the long tail on the day’s candlestick shows aggressive buying at lower levels. That was followed by an inside-day candlestick pattern on June 14, indicating indecision among the buyers and sellers.

LEO/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls tried to push the price toward the resistance line of the descending channel on June 15 but the bears had other plans. They have pulled the price back below the moving averages, increasing the possibility of a drop to the support line of the channel.

If the price rebounds off the support line with strength, it will indicate that the LEO/USD pair may extend its stay inside the channel for a few more days. The next trending move could begin if bears sink the pair below the channel or bulls thrust the price above the resistance line.

SHIB/USDT

The bulls are attempting to defend the $0.000007 level aggressively. Shiba Inu (SHIB) formed a Doji candlestick pattern on June 14, indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears.

SHIB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the uncertainty resolves to the upside and bulls push the price above $0.000009, the SHIB/USDT pair could rise to the breakdown level of $0.000010. If the price turns down from this level, it will suggest that the trend remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. The bears will then attempt to resume the downtrend and sink the pair to $0.000006.

Alternatively, if bulls drive the price above the downtrend line, it could open the doors for a possible rally to $0.000014. Such a move could suggest that the pair may have bottomed out.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

Price analysis 6/13: BTC, ETH, BNB, ADA, XRP, SOL, DOGE, DOT, LEO, AVAX

Bitcoin and altcoins are seeing heavy selling as June 13’s massive unwinding could be the final capitulation-level event before the market finally hits a bottom.

The United States equities markets extended their decline to start the week on June 13. The S&P 500 hit a new year-to-date low and dipped into bear market territory, falling more than 20% from its all-time high made on Jan. 4. 

The cryptocurrency markets are tracking the equities markets lower and the selling pressure further intensified due to the rumored liquidity crisis of major lending platform Celsius and traders possibly selling positions to meet margin calls. This pulled the total crypto market capitalization below $1 trillion.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

The sharp declines have led some analysts to project extremely bearish targets. While anything is possible in the markets and it is difficult to call a bottom, capitulations usually tend to start a bottoming formation. Traders may get their buy list ready and consider accumulating in phases after the price stops falling.

What are the important levels that may arrest the decline in Bitcoin (BTC) and major altcoins? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin broke below the immediate support at $28,630 on June 11. This accelerated selling and the bears pulled the price below the critical support at $26,700 on June 12. This indicated the resumption of the downtrend.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears maintained their selling pressure on June 13 and sent the BTC/USDT pair tumbling to an intraday low of $22,600. The sharp fall of the past few days has pulled the relative strength index (RSI) into the oversold zone. This suggests that a relief rally or consolidation is likely in the next few days.

Any recovery is likely to face selling in the zone between $26,700 and $28,630. If bears flip this zone into resistance, it will suggest that sentiment remains negative. Traders could then make one more attempt to resume the downtrend. A break below $22,600 could sink the pair to the psychological level at $20,000.

The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above $28,630 to suggest that the bears may be losing their grip.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) plummeted below the vital support of $1,700 on June 10, indicating that bears are in control. This signaled the start of the next leg of the downtrend.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The selling picked up momentum on June 11 and bears have pulled the price below the strong support at $1,300. This suggests that traders are gripped with fear and are dumping their positions.

The aggressive selling of the past three days has pulled the RSI below 22. Historically, the ETH/USDT pair starts a relief rally when the RSI falls close to 21. This suggests that the pair could attempt a rally to the breakdown level of $1,700.

Alternatively, if bears sustain their selling pressure, the pair could drop to psychological support at $1,000.

BNB/USDT

The failure of the bulls to push BNB back into the triangle may have attracted strong selling by the bears on June 11. The selling picked up momentum and the price has dropped near the strong support at $211.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price rebounds off $211, it will suggest accumulation at lower levels. The buyers will then make an attempt to push the price above the 20-day exponential moving average ($289). If they succeed, it will indicate that the BNB/USDT pair may remain range-bound between $211 and $350 for a few days.

Conversely, if bears sink the price below $211, it will signal the start of the next leg of the downtrend. The psychological level of $200 may offer a minor support but if the level gives way, the next support could be at $186.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) broke below the 20-day EMA ($0.56) on June 10 and attempts by the bulls to push the price back above the level on June 11 met with strong selling at higher levels.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears have pulled the price to the strong support zone between $0.44 and $0.40. This zone is likely to attract strong buying by the bulls because a break below it could signal the resumption of the downtrend. The ADA/USDT pair could then start its southward journey toward the next major support at $0.30.

Alternatively, if the price rises from the current level, the bulls will attempt to push the pair above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA($0.61). If that happens, the pair may consolidate between $0.74 and $0.40 for a few days.

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) broke and closed below the support at $0.38 on June 11. This completed a bearish descending triangle pattern, signaling that sellers have the upper hand.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The selling picked up momentum and bears pulled the price below the crucial support at $0.33 on June 13. This indicates the start of the next leg of the downtrend. The short-term bears may book profits near the pattern target of $0.30.

If they do that, the XRP/USDT pair could start a relief rally that may reach the breakdown level of $0.33 and then $0.38. Alternatively, if bears sink the price below $0.30, the pair could drop to the next strong support at $0.24.

SOL/USDT

Solana (SOL) had been stuck between the 20-day EMA ($40) and $35 for a few days. This uncertainty resolved to the downside on June 11 as bears pulled the price below the support.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

This accelerated the selling and the bears pulled the price below the immediate support at $30. The next support on the downside is $22 and later $20.

The sharp selling of the past few days has sent the RSI into the oversold territory. This suggests a relief rally or consolidation is likely in the near term. The bulls will attempt to push the price above the breakdown level of $35 and the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, it will suggest that the current breakdown may have been a bear trap.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin’s (DOGE) tight range trading expanded to the downside on June 10. The bears pulled the price below the May 12 intraday low of $0.07 on June 11, indicating the resumption of the downtrend.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The selling further picked up momentum and the bears pulled the DOGE/USDT pair to the psychological support of $0.05. This level could act as a short-term support because the deeply oversold levels on the RSI suggest a relief rally is possible.

On the upside, the bears will attempt to stall the recovery at the breakdown level of $0.07. If the price turns down from this resistance, the bears will attempt to resume the downtrend and sink the pair to $0.04. The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day EMA ($0.08).

Related: How to survive in a bear market? Tips for beginners

DOT/USDT

The failure of the bulls to push Polkadot (DOT) back into the symmetrical triangle attracted aggressive selling by the bears on June 10. That started a downward move that pulled the price below the critical support of $7.30.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls are attempting to push the price back above the breakdown level of $7.30. If they manage to do that, it will suggest that the break below $7.30 may have been a bear trap. The DOT/USDT pair could then rise to the 20-day EMA ($9.17).

Alternatively, if the price fails to rise above $7.30, it will suggest that the bears have flipped the level into resistance. That could resume the downtrend with the next stop being the psychological level of $5 and then the pattern target of $4.23.

LEO/USD

UNUS SED LEO (LEO) has been trading inside a descending channel for the past several weeks. The bears are posing a challenge near $5.60 but are finding it difficult to pull the price below the 20-day EMA ($5.24).

LEO/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price bounces off the current level and rises above $5.60, the LEO/USD pair could gradually move up to the resistance line of the channel. The bears are likely to defend this level aggressively.

If the price turns down from the resistance line, the bears will attempt to sink the pair below the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the pair may gradually dip toward the support line. Such a move will suggest that the pair may extend its stay inside the channel for some more time.

The next trending move could begin after the bulls push the price above the resistance line or bears sink the pair below the support line.

AVAX/USDT

Avalanche’s (AVAX) tight range trading between the 20-day EMA ($24) and the critical support of $21 resolved to the downside on June 11. This indicated the resumption of the downtrend.

AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The selling picked up momentum and sliced through the support at $18 on June 12. There is a minor support at $15 but if this level breaks down, the AVAX/USDT pair could plummet to the next strong support of $13.

Although the downsloping moving averages indicate advantage to sellers, the oversold levels on the RSI suggest that the selling may have been overdone in the near term. That could result in a relief rally to the breakdown level of $21. The bulls will have to push the price above the 20-day EMA to indicate that the bears may be losing their grip.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

Price analysis 6/10: BTC, ETH, BNB, ADA, XRP, SOL, DOGE, DOT, AVAX, SHIB

BTC and altcoins are on the verge of falling below critical support levels, and June 10’s higher-than-expected CPI report isn’t helping.

The United States equities markets tumbled on June 10 after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed inflation soaring 8.6% from a year ago, the highest increase since 1981. The latest figures show that talks of inflation having peaked were premature and according to Bloomberg, investors are pricing in the key interest rate of 3% by the end of the year.

Continuing its tight correlation with the S&P 500, Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below $30,000 on June 10. Analysts are still divided about the near-term price action but Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee said in an interview with CNBC that Bitcoin may have already bottomed. However, Lee seems to have toned down his expectations as he said that Bitcoin could “remain flat for the year, possibly up.”

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Among the constant flow of negative news, there was a ray of hope from news that Bloomberg expanded coverage of cryptocurrency data on its Bloomberg Terminal to 50 crypto assets. Bloomberg cryptocurrency product manager Alex Wenham, gave positive vibes as he said that institutional interest in digital assets continues to grow.

Now that Bitcoin is trading near swing lows again, is a capitulation-level crisis a threat? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

The bulls tried to push the price above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($30,365) on June 9 but the bears did not relent. The selling continued on June 10 and the bears have pulled the price below the trendline of the ascending triangle.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA has started to turn down gradually and the relative strength index (RSI) is in the negative territory, indicating advantage to sellers.

If the price sustains below the trendline, it will invalidate the bullish setup. That could pull the BTC/USDT pair down to $28,630, which may act as strong support but if this level cracks, the decline could extend to $26,700.

Alternatively, if the price rebounds off $28,630 and rises above the 20-day EMA, the up-move could reach $32,659.

ETH/USDT

Strong selling on June 10 has pulled Ether (ETH) below the critical support at $1,700. If the price sustains below this support, the pair could resume its downtrend.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The ETH/USDT pair could first decline to $1,500 and if this level also gives way, the next stop could be the vital support at $1,300. The bulls are expected to defend this level with all their might.

Contrary to this assumption, if bears fail to sustain the price below $1,700, it will suggest accumulation at lower levels. The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day EMA. That could open the doors for a possible rally to $2,159.

The indicators are giving a mixed signal because the downsloping moving averages favor the sellers but the positive divergence on the RSI suggests that a relief rally may be around the corner.

BNB/USDT

BNB has been trading below the support line of the symmetrical triangle for the past three days but the bears have not been able to build upon the breakdown. This suggests that selling dries up at lower levels.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The buyers will try to push the price back into the triangle. If that happens, the aggressive bears who may have gone short on the break below the support line may get trapped. That could result in a short-covering, which could push the price above the resistance line of the triangle. Such a move will suggest that the bears may be losing their grip.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price continues lower from the current level and plummets below $273, it will increase the possibility of a break below the critical support of $260. The pair could then start a decline toward the vital support of $211.

ADA/USDT

The bulls pushed Cardano (ADA) above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($0.64) on June 8 and 9 but could not sustain the higher levels. That may have tempted short-term traders to book profits.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears are attempting to sustain the price below the 20-day EMA ($0.58). If they manage to do that, the ADA/USDT pair could plummet to the next support at $0.53. If this level also gives way, the decline could extend to $0.44.

Alternatively, if the price rebounds off the current level, it will suggest that the sentiment has turned positive and the bulls are buying on dips. The bulls will then make one more attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at the 50-day SMA. If they succeed, the pair could rally to the breakdown level of $0.74, which may again act as a resistance.

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) had been trading close to the downtrend line for the past two days. The failure to push the price above the overhead resistance may have attracted profit-booking from the short-term traders.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The XRP/USDT pair has dipped to the strong support of $0.38 where the buyers may attempt to stall the decline. If the price rebounds off the support and rises above the downtrend line, the pair could rally to $0.46.

On the contrary, if bears sink and sustain the price below $0.38, it will complete a bearish descending triangle pattern. That could intensify the selling and pull the price down to $0.33. A break below this support could signal the resumption of the downtrend.

SOL/USDT

Solana (SOL) is trading between the 20-day EMA ($44) and $37 for the past few days. The buyers tried to push the price above the 20-day EMA on June 9 but the bears held their ground.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The positive divergence on the RSI indicates a minor advantage to buyers while the downsloping moving averages suggest that bears have the upper hand. This uncertainty is unlikely to continue for long. If bears sink the price below $35, the SOL/USDT pair may resume the downtrend The next stop on the downside could be $30.

Contrary to this assumption, if bulls propel the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rally to $50 and then to the overhead resistance at $60.

DOGE/USDT

The bulls struggled to sustain Dogecoin (DOGE) above $0.08 on June 8 and 9. This may have attracted further selling and the support collapsed on June 10.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears will try to build upon their advantage and attempt to sink the price to the vital support of $0.07. A break and close below this level could signal the start of the next leg of the downtrend.

This negative view could invalidate in the short term if the price turns up and breaks above the 20-day EMA ($0.08). That could attract buying from the aggressive bulls, which could push the DOGE/USDT pair to $0.10.

Related: Ethereum eyes fresh yearly lows vs. Bitcoin as bulls snub successful ‘Merge’ rehearsal

DOT/USDT

The bulls tried to push Polkadot (DOT) back into the symmetrical triangle on June 9 but the bears defended the level aggressively. This suggests that the bears have flipped the support line into resistance.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears will attempt to sink the price below the immediate support of $8.56. If they succeed, the DOT/USDT pair could drop to the critical level at $7.30. The bears will have to pull the price below this support to indicate the resumption of the downtrend.

This bearish view could invalidate if the price rebounds off $8.56 and rises above the resistance line. If that happens, the pair could attract buyers who may then attempt to push the price to $11 and later to $12.50.

AVAX/USDT

Avalanche (AVAX) formed a Doji candlestick pattern for the past two days indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears. This uncertainty resolved to the downside on June 10 and bears are trying to pull the price to the strong support at $21.

AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The price is stuck between the 20-day EMA ($27) and $21. This tight-range trading is likely to resolve with a range expansion in the next few days. Although the positive divergence on the RSI indicates a minor advantage to buyers, the downsloping moving averages suggest that bears have the upper hand.

If the range expands to the downside and the price drops below $21, it will suggest the resumption of the downtrend. The AVAX/USDT pair could then decline to $18. Alternatively, if the price explodes above the 20-day EMA, it may clear the path for a possible rally to $33 and then $37.

SHIB/USDT

Shiba Inu (SHIB) has been trading close to the strong support at $0.000010 since June 7. Although bulls have defended the support, they have failed to achieve a strong rebound.

SHIB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

This increases the possibility of a break below the strong support at $0.000010. If that happens, the SHIB/USDT pair will complete a bearish descending triangle pattern. The pair could then decline to the May 12 intraday low of $0.000009. If this support also cracks, the next stop could be $0.000006.

To invalidate this bearish view, the buyers will have to push the price above the downtrend line. That could clear the path for a possible rally to $0.000014.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

Price analysis 6/8: BTC, ETH, BNB, ADA, XRP, SOL, DOGE, DOT, AVAX, SHIB

Bitcoin and altcoins are losing bullish momentum and persistent selling at overhead resistance suggests that the current consolidation is far from over.

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade in a range with the local tops and bottoms coinciding with increased whale activity in the region, according to on-chain analytics resource Whalemap.

The range-bound action in Bitcoin has kept the analysts guessing and a few expect the consolidation to continue for some more time, while others anticipate another leg lower.

A June 6 Glassnode report said that the aggregated realized losses from long-term holders reflected more than 0.006% of the market capitalization on May 29. This is in comparison to the peak of 0.015% of the market capitalization reached during the 2018 to 2019 bear market.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Along with the quantum of losses, investors may also have to be prepared for a longer duration of subdued prices. The duration of the current loss for long-term investors is only one month old, while the previous losses remained roughly for a year.

Could the lackluster trading action in Bitcoin and other major altcoins continue? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin plunged below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($30,565) on June 7 but a positive sign is that the bulls aggressively purchased the dip to the trendline of the ascending triangle pattern. This resulted in a strong recovery as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick. The ascending triangle pattern remains intact favoring the buyers.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

However, a minor negative is that the bulls could not build upon the momentum on June 8. This gave an opportunity to the bears who have again pulled the price back below the 20-day EMA. This suggests that bears continue to sell in the zone between the 20-day EMA and $32,659.

If bears sink the price below the trendline, the BTC/USDT pair could drop to $28,630 where buying may emerge. If that happens, it will suggest that the pair may remain range-bound between $32,659 and $28,630 for a few more days.

The next directional move is likely to begin on a break above $32,659 or below $28,630. Until then, volatile range-bound action is likely to continue.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($1,908) on June 6, indicating that bears are not willing to cede ground to the bulls. The sellers then tried to sink the price below the critical support of $1,700 on June 7 but the long tail on the candlestick shows aggressive buying by the bulls near the support.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The price is currently coiling between the downsloping 20-day EMA and $1,700. This is likely to result in a range expansion that could set the stage for the next directional move.

If buyers drive the price above the 20-day EMA, the ETH/USDT pair could rally to $2,159. The bears may again mount a strong defense at this level. If the price turns down from it, the pair may spend some time inside the $2,159 to $1,700 range.

A break above $2,159 will be the first sign that the pair may have bottomed out while a break below $1,700 could signal the resumption of the downtrend.

BNB/USDT

BNB turned down from the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle pattern on June 6 and plunged below the support line. This suggests that the bears continue to sell aggressively at higher levels.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears pulled the price below the immediate support at $286 on June 7 but the long wick on the day’s candlestick shows strong buying at lower levels. The bulls are attempting to push the price back above the support line on June 8.

If they manage to do that, the BNB/USDT pair could try to rise above the resistance line and trap the aggressive bears. Conversely, if the price turns down from the current level, it will suggest that the bears have flipped the support line into resistance. That could increase the possibility of a drop to $265.

ADA/USDT

The long wick on Cardano’s (ADA) June 6 and 7 candlestick shows that bears are selling the rallies to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($0.65). Although bears tried to pull the price below the 20-day EMA ($0.58) on June 7, the bulls held their ground.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The buyers are again attempting to push the price above the 50-day SMA. If they succeed, the ADA/USDT pair could rally to the breakdown level of $0.74. This is an important level for the bears to defend because a break and close above it could suggest a potential change in trend. The pair could then rally toward the psychological level of $1.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 50-day SMA or $0.74, the bears will attempt to pull the pair below the 20-day EMA and gain the upper hand.

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) formed an outside-day candlestick pattern on June 7, with the price rebounding off the strong support at $0.38 and closing near the overhead resistance at the downtrend line.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

However, buyers could not build upon this move and push the price above the downtrend line on June 8. This suggests that bears continue to sell near resistance levels. The bears will again attempt to sink the price below $0.38.

If they succeed, the XRP/USDT pair will complete a descending triangle pattern. That could result in a decline to the May 12 intraday low of $0.33. If this support cracks, the next stop could be the pattern target of $0.30.

This negative view could be invalidated in the short term if bulls propel the price above the 20-day EMA. The pair could then rally to $0.46.

SOL/USDT

Solana’s (SOL) attempt to start a recovery met with stiff resistance at the 20-day EMA ($45), which suggests that the trend remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears will try to pull the price below the crucial support zone between $37 and $35. If they manage to do that, the SOL/USDT pair could resume its downtrend. The pair could then decline to $30.

On the contrary, if the price rebounds off the support zone, it will suggest that bulls are accumulating at lower levels. A break above the 20-day EMA will be the first sign that the selling pressure may be reducing. The pair could then rise to $50 and later to $60.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) once again turned down from the 20-day EMA ($0.08) on June 6, indicating that bears are selling on rallies. A minor positive is that the bulls purchased the dip on June 7, indicating buying at lower levels.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The DOGE/USDT pair has been stuck in a tight range between the 20-day EMA and $0.07, indicating uncertainty among the bulls and the bears. Usually, tight ranges resolve with an expansion but it is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout.

If the price rises above the 20-day EMA, buyers who may be waiting on the sidelines could enter and push the pair toward the psychological level of $0.10. On the contrary, if the price slips below $0.07, the pair may resume the downtrend.

Related: Ethereum ‘double Doji’ pattern hints at a 50% ETH price rally by September

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) attempted to rise above the 20-day EMA ($10) on June 6 but the long wick on the day’s candlestick shows strong selling by the bears.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The DOT/USDT pair dipped below the support line on June 7, indicating that the symmetrical triangle resolved in favor of the sellers. The pair could next drop to the strong support at $8.50 where the buyers will try to stall the decline.

This negative view could invalidate in the short term if the price turns up from the current level and rises above the resistance line of the triangle. Such a move will suggest that the break below the support line may have been a bear trap. The pair could then rise to the 50-day SMA ($12.35).

AVAX/USDT

The buyers tried to push Avalanche (AVAX) above the 20-day EMA ($28) on June 6 but the long wick on the day’s candlestick shows that the bears are defending the level aggressively.

AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The price is getting squeezed between the 20-day EMA and the strong support at $21 but this tight range trading is unlikely to continue for long.

If bulls drive the AVAX/USDT pair above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest the start of a recovery that may reach $37. The positive divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) also supports a relief rally in the near term.

Alternatively, if the range expands to the downside and the price plummets below $21, the pair could resume its downtrend and drop to $18.

SHIB/USDT

The bears tried to sink Shiba Inu (SHIB) below the strong support of $0.000010 on June 7 but the bulls successfully defended the level as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick.

SHIB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The longer the price trades below the 20-day EMA ($0.000012), the greater the possibility of a break below $0.000010. If that happens, the SHIB/USDT pair could drop to $0.000009 where the bulls may attempt to stall the decline.

To invalidate the bearish view, the bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, the pair could rally to $0.000014 where the bears are likely to mount a strong defense.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

Price analysis 6/6: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, AVAX, SHIB

BTC and altcoins flashed green at the weekly open, but overhead resistance levels will continue to pose a challenge in the short-term.

After nine successive weeks of red weekly candles, Bitcoin (BTC) printed a green weekly candle on June 5. Leading into this week, buyers kept up their momentum with a strong weekly open that boosted BTC price to $31,800.

Going forward, traders might keep a close eye on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, which is due on June 10. Depending on the figures, this could keep the volatility elevated as investors digest the report and speculate on the next possible move of the United States Federal Reserve.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Analysts are divided about the next directional move for Bitcoin. While some believe a bottom has been made, others anticipate another leg down. For analyst Bob Loukas, the price action in the summer could remain uninteresting and he expects the new cycle to begin late in the year.

Could bulls sustain higher levels or will bears sell aggressively and pull the price down? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

After two small range days on June 4 and 5, the range expanded on June 6 and Bitcoin soared above the 20-day exponential moving average (E($30,510). The bulls are attempting to push the price to the overhead resistance at $32,659.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The price action of the past few days has formed an ascending triangle pattern, which will complete on a break and close above $32,659. If that happens, the BTC/USDT pair could start a new up-move. The pattern target of the breakout from the triangle is $38,618.

The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the relative strength index (RSI) is near the midpoint, suggesting that the selling pressure is reducing.

This positive view could invalidate if the price turns down sharply and plunges below the trendline of the triangle. The pair could then drop to the strong support at $28,630 where the bulls may try to arrest the decline. A break and close below this support could tilt the advantage in favor of the bears.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) bounced off $1,737 on June 3, indicating that bulls are attempting to defend the crucial support of $1,700. The buyers are attempting to push the price above the overhead resistance at the 20-day EMA ($1,930) on June 6.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If they succeed, the ETH/USDT pair could pick up momentum and rally to $2,016. Above this level, the pair could reach the stiff overhead resistance at $2,159. The bears are likely to defend this level aggressively. If the price turns down from this resistance, the pair could consolidate between $2,159 and $1,700 for a few more days.

The long wick on the June 6 candlestick suggests that bears continue to defend the 20-day EMA. This indicates that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. The bears will now try to pull the pair below $1,700 and resume the downtrend.

BNB/USDT

BNB has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears. The bulls are attempting to push the price above the resistance line but the bears are not willing to cede ground.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price turns down from the overhead resistance, the bears will again try to pull the BNB/USDT pair below the support line. If they manage to do that, the pair could decline to $265 where buying may emerge.

Alternatively, if bulls push and sustain the price above the resistance line, it will suggest that the sellers are losing their grip. The pair could then rally to the breakdown level of $350. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break and close above it could signal that the downtrend may be over.

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) has been trading inside a bearish descending triangle pattern. The bulls are attempting to push the price above the downtrend line but the bears are posing a strong challenge as seen from the long wick on the day’s candlestick.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If bulls propel the price above the downtrend line, it will negate the bearish pattern. That could cause a short squeeze, pushing the XRP/USDT pair to $0.46 and later to the psychological level at $0.50.

Conversely, if the price turns down from the downtrend line, the pair could drop to the $0.38 support. If bears pull the price below $0.38, the descending triangle pattern will complete. The pair could then decline to the important support at $0.33. A break and close below this support could resume the downtrend.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) had been sustaining above the 20-day EMA ($0.56) for the past few days suggesting accumulation by the bulls. Buying picked up on June 6 and the bulls are trying to push the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.66).

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If they succeed, the ADA/USDT pair could rally to the breakdown level of $0.74. This level may again act as a major hurdle but if the bulls overcome it, the recovery could pick up momentum. The pair could then rally to $0.90.

The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI is just above the midpoint, suggesting a slight edge to buyers.

This bullish view could invalidate in the short term if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the pair could gradually slide toward the strong support at $0.44.

SOL/USDT

Solana (SOL) plunged below the critical support of $37 on June 4 but a minor positive is that the bulls purchased at lower levels. This may have caught the aggressive bears off-guard, which resulted in a strong recovery as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The RSI has formed a positive divergence, indicating that the bearish momentum may be reducing. The bulls are attempting to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($46). If they succeed, the SOL/USDT pair could rally to $55 and thereafter to $60.

On the contrary, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the trend remains negative and bears are selling on rallies. The bears will then make one more attempt to resume the downtrend by pulling the pair below $35.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) is stuck between the 20-day EMA ($0.08) and $0.08 for the past few days but this tight range trading is unlikely to continue for long.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If buyers push the price above the 20-day EMA, the DOGE/USDT pair could rally toward the psychological resistance at $0.10. This level may again act as a hurdle but if bulls overcome it, the pair could rally to $0.12.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears continue to sell on minor rallies. If bears sink the price below $0.08, the pair could drop to $0.07. A break and close below this support will suggest the resumption of the downtrend.

Related: Is Cardano ready for a go at $1? June’s hard fork FOMO lifts ADA price to weekly highs

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) has formed a symmetrical triangle, which usually acts as a continuation pattern. The buyers are attempting to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($10) and challenge the resistance line of the triangle.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

A break and close above the triangle will be the first indication of a potential trend change. The DOT/USDT pair could rise to $12 and then attempt a rally to the breakdown level of $14. The bears are likely to defend this level aggressively.

Alternatively, if the price turns down from the overhead resistance and breaks below the triangle, it will suggest that bears are in control. The pair could then decline to $8 and later retest the May 12 intraday low of $7.30.

AVAX/USDT

Avalanche (AVAX) bounced off $22.14 on June 4, indicating that bulls are defending the $21.35 support with vigor. The buyers have pushed the price above the downtrend line and are attempting to clear the overhead hurdle at the 20-day EMA ($28).

AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If they manage to do that, the AVAX/USDT pair could pick up momentum and start its northward journey toward $33 and then $37. Such a move will suggest that the bulls are back in the game.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears remain active at higher levels. The pair could then slide toward $21.35. A break and close below this support could start the next leg of the downtrend.

SHIB/USDT

The buyers have successfully defended the $0.000010 support for the past several days but they have not been able to push Shiba Inu (SHIB) above the 20-day EMA ($0.000012). This suggests that buying dries up at higher levels.

SHIB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The tight range trading between $0.000010 and the 20-day EMA is unlikely to continue for long. If bears sink the price below $0.000010, the SHIB/USDT pair could retest the May 12 intraday low at $0.000009. A break and close below this level could signal the resumption of the downtrend.

Alternatively, if buyers propel the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rally to the overhead resistance at $0.000014. The bears are expected to mount a strong defense at this level.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

Is Cardano ready for a go at $1? June’s hard fork FOMO lifts ADA price to weekly highs

Cardano’s previous hard forks sparked massive ADA price rallies. Will this time be different?

Cardano (ADA) was among the best performers among the top cryptocurrencies on June 6 as traders assessed a key upgrade that promises to enhance its blockchain’s smart contract capabilities.

Vasil hard fork FOMO

Dubbed “Vasil,” the so-called hard fork event will tentatively take place on June 29, 2022. As a result of the euphoria surrounding this upgrade, traders have started speculating more on ADA’s upside prospects, resulting in its better performance than other top-ranking digital assets.

For instance, ADA’s price rose by over 14% to $0.64 on June 6 compared to the 6% gains of its top rival, Ether (ETH), on the same day.

Cardano’s price history also shows similar euphoric behaviors among traders in the days leading up to hard fork events. For example, the “Alonzo” upgrade in September 2021, which introduced smart contract functionalities to the Cardano network, preceded a 200%-plus ADA price rally, as shown below.

ADA/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Similarly, Cardano’s “Mary” hard fork in March 2021 preceded ADA’s 1,600%-plus price boom.

ADA bull traps

The previous price rallies that led to the hard fork events also occurred amid an expansionary macro-environment. At the time, interest rates were near-zero, and the Federal Reserve was buying $120 billion worth of government bonds every month.

But currently, the U.S. central bank has turned hawkish after witnessing persistently higher inflation. Therefore, many analysts argue that there is now less U.S. dollar liquidity to buy riskier assets, including stocks and cryptos.

Cardano has reeled under the pressure of the Fed’s tightening, with ADA trading almost 80% lower than its September 2021 peak of $3.16. The broader move downside also includes significant bounces, as shown in the chart below.

ADA/USD daily price chart featuring price rebounds in ongoing bear market. Source: TradingView

ADA price to $1?

From the technical perspective, ADA now tests a resistance confluence comprising a falling trendline and its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) near $0.66 and a horizontal trendline (the neckline) near $0.62 that constitutes what appears to be a “double bottom” pattern.

ADA/USD daily price chart featuring ‘double bottom’ setup. Source: TradingView

A break above the resistance confluence could trigger the double bottom breakout.

Related: Crypto funds under management drop to a low not seen since July 2021

As a rule of technical analysis, traders measure the double bottom’s breakout target by adding the distance between the bottom levels and the neckline to the breakout point. That paints a June target of  $0.87, up around 40% from June ‘s price and likely ahead of the Vasil upgrade.

A follow-up rally could also see ADA testing its 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA; the blue wave) near $1 for a breakout or pullback. A pullback seems more likely, however, given the prevailing macro risks.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, ADA, XLM, XMR, MANA

BTC appears to be in the early stage of a recovery this week, and ADA, XLM, XMR and MANA could follow.

The bears are trying to extend Bitcoin’s (BTC) record of nine consecutive red weekly candles to ten weeks, but the bulls are trying to avert this negative occurrence. Although sentiment remains negative, Arthur Hayes, former CEO of derivatives giant BitMEX, anticipates Bitcoin to bottom out in the range of $25,000 to $27,000.

On-chain data from Glassnode shows that smart money may have started accumulating Bitcoin. The net outflows from major cryptocurrency exchanges reached 23,286 Bitcoin on June 3, the highest since May 14.

Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360

Another positive sign of accumulation is that investment into Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) was strong in May and has only risen further in the first two days of June, according to an Arcane Research report. The ETPs hold 205,000 Bitcoin under management, which is a new record.

Could Bitcoin turn up and start a recovery? If that happens, could select altcoins follow the leader? Let’s study the charts of the top-5 cryptocurrencies that may lead the relief rally.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin plunged below the 20-day exponential moving average ($30,459) on June 1. The bulls attempted to push the price back above the 20-day EMA on June 2 and June 3 but the bears did not relent.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears will try to pull the price below the strong support at $28,630. If they manage to do that, the BTC/USDT pair could drop to the vital support at $26,700. The buyers are expected to defend this support zone with all their might because if they fail to do that, the downtrend may resume.

On the upside, the bulls will have to push and sustain the price above $32,659 to suggest that a new uptrend could be starting. The bullish momentum could pick up on a break and close above the 50-day simple moving average ($33,778). The pair could then rally to the pattern target of $36,688 and thereafter to $40,000.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 4-hour chart shows that the price action is getting squeezed. Although bulls pushed the price above the 20-EMA, they are facing stiff resistance at the 50-SMA. This suggests that bears are active at higher levels.

A minor positive in favor of the bulls is that they have not allowed the price to break below the support at $29,282.

If the price rises from the current level and breaks above the downtrend line, the bulls will attempt to push the pair to the 200-SMA. Conversely, if the price breaks below $29,282, the next stop could be $28,630.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) broke above the downtrend line on May 31 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels as seen from the long wick on the day’s candlestick.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Although the bears have successfully defended the downtrend line, a minor positive is that the bulls have held the ADA/USDT pair above the 20-day EMA ($0.56). This increases the possibility of a break above the downtrend line.

If that happens, the pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($0.67) where the bears may again pose a strong challenge. A break and close above this level will suggest a potential change in trend. The pair could then rally to the breakdown level of $0.74.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and plummets below $0.53, the bears will try to pull the pair to $0.50 and later to $0.44.

ADA/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 4-hour chart shows that the price has been squeezed between the 200-SMA and the 50-SMA but this tight range trading is unlikely to continue for long. If bulls propel the price above the 200-SMA, the pair could attempt a rally to $0.64. A break and close above this level could open the doors for a possible rally to $0.69.

Conversely, if the price turns down and breaks below $0.53, the selling could pick up momentum. The pair may then decline to $0.50 and later to $0.47.

XLM/USDT

Stellar (XLM) rallied above the 20-day EMA ($0.14) on May 30, which was the first indication that the selling pressure may be reducing. The bears stalled the up-move near the 50-day SMA ($0.15) but they haven’t been able to sink and sustain the price below the 20-day EMA.

XLM/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

This suggests that the bulls are buying the dips to the 20-day EMA. If bulls drive the price above the 50-day SMA, it will suggest the start of a sustained recovery. The XLM/USDT pair could then attempt a rally to $0.18 and later to the 200-day SMA ($0.21).

This positive view will invalidate in the short term if the price turns down and breaks below $0.13. Such a move will suggest that demand dries up at higher levels. That could pull the pair down to $0.12. If this support also gives way, the bears will try to resume the downtrend by sinking the pair below the psychological level of $0.10.

XLM/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 4-hour chart shows the price is trading inside a symmetrical triangle. If bulls push the price above the resistance line of the triangle, the pair could rally to $0.15 and thereafter attempt a rally to the pattern target of $0.17.

Alternatively, if the price turns down from the current level, the bears will try to sink the pair below the support line of the triangle. If they do that, the selling could intensify and the pair may slide to the strong support at $0.13.

Related: 3 reasons Ethereum price risks 25% downside in June

XMR/USDT

Monero’s (XMR) failure to rise above the 50-day SMA ($202) may have tempted short-term traders to book profits. That has pulled the price down to the 20-day EMA ($189).

XMR/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls are attempting to defend the 20-day EMA but the lack of a strong bounce off it suggests weak demand. If the price sustains below the 20-day EMA, the next stop could be the uptrend line. A break and close below this support could pull the price down to $167.

On the contrary, if the price rebounds off the current level, the buyers will attempt to overcome the resistance zone between the 50-day SMA and $210. If they manage to do that, the XMR/USDT pair could extend its rally to $230.

XMR/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The pair has been declining inside a descending channel, suggesting a minor advantage to sellers. If bears sink the price below the channel, the negative momentum may pick up and the pair could slide to $167.

Alternatively, if the price rebounds off the support line, the buyers will try to propel the pair above the channel. If they manage to do that, the pair could again attempt a break above the overhead resistance at $210.

MANA/USDT

Decentraland (MANA) has failed to break above the 20-day EMA ($1.06) for the past several days but a minor positive is that the bulls have not given up much ground. This suggests that the bulls are buying on dips as they anticipate a move higher.

MANA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If bulls propel the price above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bears are losing their grip. The MANA/USDT pair could then rise to the overhead resistance at $1.36. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break and close above it could signal that a bottom may be in place. The pair could then rally to $1.68.

Conversely, if the price turns down and breaks below $0.90, it will suggest that the bears are in no mood to surrender their advantage. The pair could then retest the crucial support at $0.60. The bears will have to pull the price below this support to indicate the resumption of the downtrend.

MANA/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 4-hour chart shows that the pair has been trading inside a tight range between $0.94 and $1.04. The gradually downsloping 20-EMA and the RSI in the negative territory suggest a slight advantage to sellers. If bears pull the price below $0.94, the pair could drop to $0.90.

On the contrary, if bulls push the price above $1.04, it will suggest that demand exceeds supply. That could open the doors for a possible rally to the stiff overhead resistance at $1.15.

If the price turns down from this level, the pair may oscillate between $0.90 and $1.15 for some more time. A break and close above $1.15 could suggest that buyers have the upper hand.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Total crypto market cap risks a dip below $1 trillion if these 3 metrics don’t improve

Declining demand for Tether, negative futures premiums for altcoins and the lack of inflow to the crypto sector are all signs that a rocky road is ahead.

The total crypto market capitalization has ranged from $1.19 trillion to $1.36 trillion for the past 23 days, which is a relatively tight 13% range. During the same time, Bitcoin’s (BTC) 3.5% and Ether’s (ETH) 1.6% gains for the week are far from encouraging.

To date, the total crypto market is down 43% in just two months, so investors are unlikely to celebrate even if the descending triangle formation breaks to the upside.

Total crypto market cap, USD billion. Source: TradingView

Regulation worries continue to weigh investor sentiment, a prime example being Japan’s swift decision to enforce new laws after the Terra USD (UST) — now known as TerraUSD Classic (USTC) — collapse. On June 3, Japan’s parliament passed a bill to limit stablecoin issuing to licensed banks, registered money transfer agents and trust companies.

A few mid-cap altcoins rallied, but overall sentiment was unaffected

The bearish sentiment was clearly reflected in crypto markets as the Fear and Greed Index, a data-driven sentiment gauge, hit 10/100 on June 3. The indicator has been below 20 since May 8, as the total crypto capitalization lost the $1.7 trillion level to reach the lowest level since January 27.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: alternative.me

Below are the winners and losers from the past seven days. While the two leading cryptocurrencies presented modest gains, a handful of mid-capitalization altcoins rallied 13% or higher.

Weekly winners and losers among the top 80 coins. Source: Nomics

Waves rallied 109% after liquidity was brought back to Vires Finance and the Neutrino Protocol USDN stablecoin re-established its $1.00 peg after a $1,000 daily withdrawal limit was imposed on USDT and USDC.

Cardano (ADA) gained 19% as investors expect the “Vasil” hard fork scheduled for June 29 to improve scalability and smart contract functionality, incentivizing deposits to the long-hyped decentralized finance applications on the network.

Stellar (XLM) hiked 18.6% after the remittance giant MoneyGram partnered with the Stellar Development Foundation, launching a service that allows its users to send and convert stablecoins into fiat currencies.

Solana (SOL) lost 8% due to an unexpected block production halt on June 1, requiring validators to coordinate another mainnet restart after four hours of outage. The persistent issue has negatively impacted the network on seven occasions over the past 12 months.

Data points to further price pressure

The OKX Tether (USDT) premium is a good gauge of China-based retail crypto trader demand. It measures the difference between China-based peer-to-peer (P2P) trades and the United States dollar.

Excessive buying demand tends to pressure the indicator above fair value at 100% and during bearish markets, Tether’s market offer is flooded and causes a 4% or higher discount.

Tether (USDT) peer-to-peer vs. USD/CNY. Source: OKX

Tether has been trading at a 2% or higher discount in Asian peer-to-peer markets since May 30. However, the indicator showed a modest deterioration as it bottomed at a 4% discount on June 1. This data leaves no doubt that retail traders were caught off-guard as the total crypto capitalization failed to break the $1.3 trillion resistance.

Perpetual contracts, also known as inverse swaps, have an embedded rate that is usually charged every eight hours. Exchanges use this fee to avoid exchange risk imbalances.

A positive funding rate indicates that longs (buyers) demand more leverage. However, the opposite situation occurs when shorts (sellers) require additional leverage, causing the funding rate to turn negative.

Accumulated perpetual futures funding rate on June 3. Source: Coinglass

Perpetual contracts reflected mixed sentiment as Bitcoin and Ethereum held a slightly positive (bullish) funding rate, but altcoin rates were opposite. Solana’s negative 0.20% weekly rate equals 0.8% per month, which is not a huge concern for most derivatives traders.

According to derivatives and trading indicators, the market is at risk of seeing more downside. Evidence of this can be seen in the slightly higher demand for bearish positions on altcoins and the evident lack of buying appetite from Asia-based retail markets.

Bulls need to display strength and hold the $1.19 trillion market capitalization support to avoid an increase in leveraged sellers, bearish bets and the subsequent negative price pressure.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.