Bitcoin

Over 200K BTC now stored in Bitcoin ETFs and other institutional products

Bitcoin ETPs now have more BTC under control on behalf of clients than ever before.

Bitcoin (BTC) investment vehicles are seeing “gargantuan” inflows this month, which is a fresh sign that traders’ appetite for BTC exposure is mounting.

Data from monitoring firm Arcane Research published this week shows that Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) now have record high BTC under management.

“Happier days” for Bitcoin ETPs as buyers pile in

Despite BTC price action failing to draw in buyers at over 50% below all-time highs, not everyone is feeling risk-off.

According to Arcane’s data, Bitcoin ETPs have seen a flurry of interest from institutional investors both this month and last.

In total, Bitcoin ETPs, which include products such as the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy exchange-traded fund (ETF), now have 205,000 BTC under their control — a new record.

“While the May recovery was strong in ETPs, June has seen even happier days!” Arcane analyst Vetle Lunde told Twitter followers while uploading the numbers on June 2.

“The first two days of June have seen gargantuan net inflows to Purpose, 3iQ Coinshares, and BITO, pushing the global BUM to a new all-time high of 205,008 BTC.”

*Bitcoin ETF investment chart. Source: Vetle Lunde/ Twitter*

In the first few days of June alone, more than 7,000 BTC flowed to ETPs, almost as much as for the entirety of May, which, itself, saw an impressive 9,765 BTC rise.

“Massive $BTC inflows into Bitcoin ETFs in June already,” Zhu Su, cofounder of asset manager Three Arrows Capital, reacted.

Little reprieve for GBTC

The Purpose Bitcoin ETF, the first Bitcoin spot price ETF to launch anywhere in the world, meanwhile had $1.294 billion worth of assets under management as of June 3, data from on-chain monitoring resource Coinglass confirmed.

*Purpose Bitcoin ETF assets under management chart. Source: Coinglass*

Things remained somewhat less rosy for industry stalwart the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), however.

According to Coinglass data, GBTC continues to trade near a record discount to the Bitcoin spot price, currently 28.68% as of June 3.

Previously, Cointelegraph reported on Grayscale’s ongoing battle to convert GBTC to a Bitcoin spot ETF.

*GBTC holdings, discount vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: Coinglass*

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin bounces to $30.7K as analyst presents Stock-to-Flow BTC price model rehash

United States stock markets provide the backdrop for reversal in Bitcoin as $30,000 manages to hold.

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh local highs overnight into June 3 after United States equities cut losses.

*BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView*

Wall Street provides short-term relief

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD gaining steadily to hit $30,670 on Bitstamp before consolidating.

The mood among stocks was more solid during the June 2 session, with the S&P 500 reclaiming the majority of its lost ground over the past month. The Nasdaq Composite Index ended up 2.7%.

Analyzing the crypto market cap compared to the Nasdaq, popular analyst TechDev noted what could be an incoming inflection point.

Potentially interesting. #BTC / $NDQ pic.twitter.com/i0k8oEyhw3

— TechDev (@TechDev_52) June 2, 2022

Fellow trader and analyst Pentoshi, meanwhile, issued a sobering outlook for the S&P 500 on weekly timeframes going forward.

My current working theory for #SPX and markets in general is this. I had talked about 3840 in the past being a key spot

I believe we just had our swing low and that the next weekly will look like the red part drawn on the chart w/ a higher low than last week and thus risk on ST https://t.co/o7uv2b40BF pic.twitter.com/TOOn6KP9Th

— Pentoshi (@Pentosh1) May 22, 2022

Bitcoin, itself continued to face calls for a retracement, which would eclipse May’s $23,800 lows.

Crypto Tony still targeted between $22,000 and $24,000, demanding a break of a trendline currently near $32,500 to consider long scalping.

“Bitcoin held the $30K level, so long would still be intact from the $29.3K region,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe added on his short-term strategy.

“Now flipping $30.3K would be continuation towards $31.8K possible.”

At the time of writing, BTC/USD lay at around $30,500.

Timmer: Bitcoin supply and demand needs “fresh take”

Zooming out, one on-chain analyst became the latest to take on the increasingly controversial Stock-to-Flow (S2F) BTC price model.

Having failed to validate its $100,000 end-of-year prediction in 2021, Stock-to-Flow has become increasingly sidelined as its creator, PlanB, fields criticism.

While acknowledging the model’s potential shortcomings, Jurrien Timmer, head of global macro at on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, revisited it, offering a tweak that he argued would serve to increase its utility.

“It’s time for a fresh take on Bitcoin’s supply/demand dynamics,” a dedicated Twitter thread began.

Timmer proposed taking into account Bitcoin’s supply curve to produce a more conservative trajectory for price growth. The result, he considered, had retroactively already captured BTC price action more accurately than the raw S2F predictions.

The close-up below shows that this more modest supply model has been (in hindsight) more accurate than the original S2F’s projections for this halving cycle. /15 pic.twitter.com/65WgS4Hody

— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) June 2, 2022

“If accurate, It suggests still robust but less pie-in-the-sky upside than before. Maybe even several years of sideways, in line with the halving cycle, and likely continued volatility,” he continued.

PlanB had noted that the May monthly close had been Bitcoin’s lowest since December 2020.

As Cointelegraph reported, the next block subsidy halving event is increasingly figuring as a line in the sand for a return to bullish strength.

This classic Bitcoin metric is flashing buy for first time since March 2020

The “Investor Tool” is now telling the market that “outsized returns” are due for anyone who buys Bitcoin now.

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls may only need a pair of simple moving averages (SMAs) to determine if the bottom is in this halving cycle.

In a Twitter thread on June 2, Checkmate, lead on-chain analyst at crypto analytics firm Glassnode, flagged the Investor Tool metric hitting “buy the dip” territory.

“Generational zone” enters for Bitcoin’s Investor Tool

The Investor Tool is a simple yet effective BTC price metric showing the potential for buyers to enjoy “outsized” returns.

Its creator, LookIntoBitcoin founder Philip Swift, aimed to deduce when BTC/USD is likely overbought or oversold.

The metric uses the two-year SMA and its 5x multiple. The two lines are plotted against spot price and have historically performed well at catching both generational tops and bottoms.

Now, BTC/USD is below the two-year SMA for the first time since March 2020, having crossed the line around one week before the Terra LUNA, now known as Luna Classic (LUNC), debacle sent Bitcoin to ten-month lows .

“Bitcoin Simple Moving Averages are edge when navigating bear markets,” Checkmate commented, adding that it had “entered the generational zone.”

*Bitcoin Investor Tool chart. Source: Glassnode*

Hayes “more confident” of $25,000 bottom after LFG BTC sales

While Bitcoin bulls are hardly out of the woods at $30,000, the Investor Tool’s readings strengthen a narrative that is only just beginning to emerge among analysts.

As Cointelegraph reported, Arthur Hayes, former CEO of derivatives giant BitMEX, this week suggested that May’s Terra-inspired trip to $23,800 may in fact mark a long-term BTC price floor after all.

Despite a large number of predictions calling for a crash to as low as $14,000, historical patterns may yet play a role in securing Bitcoin at or near current levels.

Even the Terra episode, itself, in which nonprofit the Luna Foundation Guard (LFG) liquidated 80,000 BTC, could have cemented solid support, Hayes wrote.

“At the bottom, a typically impervious strong hand can be forced to sell because of uneconomical arrangements festering in their trading books. The LFG is such a seller. To puke 80,000 physical Bitcoin is quite a feat,” he explained.

“After contemplating the nature in which these Bitcoins were sold, I am even more confident that the $25,000 — $27,000 zone for Bitcoin is this cycle’s bottom.”

Bitcoin touches $30K as ex-BitMEX CEO hopes $25K marks BTC price ‘local bottom’

Bitcoin bulls are not giving up without a fight in the current range, while data increases the significance of May’s $23,800 floor.

Bitcoin (BTC) recovered to $30,000 prior to the June 2 Wall Street open as feet remained cold across crypto markets.

“Crucial breaker rejecting” on Bitcoin

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD climbing to local highs of $30,182 on Bitstamp after wicking down to near $29,300 overnight.

Amid testing times for equities, Bitcoin followed in giving up recent gains, with Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe insisting that $29,000 needed to hold to avoid more serious retracement.

“Cascade further south for Bitcoin towards the level that caused the breakout,” he summarized on the day.

“Resistances above us are $30.5K and $31.5K. Let’s see how it goes, has to hold $29.2–$29.3K to avoid any massive breakdowns.”

A subsequent tweet highlighted what Van de Poppe described as an intraday “crucial breaker” level acting as resistance.

Crucial breaker for #Bitcoin rejecting. pic.twitter.com/vYdLUlNxyw

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) June 2, 2022

Analyzing what led Bitcoin to reverse downward, meanwhile, on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators pointed the finger at large-volume investors engineering volatility.

“Large orders chased price to the top, then switched sides, alongside whales starting to market-sell. Now, some buying by $1M+ on support,” part of an explanatory Twitter post read.

BTC/USD thus remained firmly in a narrow trading range in place since the second week of May.

Positivity creeps in over BTC price floor

Meanwhile, one of the industry’s best-known figures gave cause to consider that much deeper corrections may not be in store for Bitcoin.

In his latest blog post released on June 2, Arthur Hayes, former CEO of derivatives giant BitMEX, argued that last month’s bottom could well have been the bottom that everyone was looking for.

He flagged data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, which presented BTC/USD drawdowns from all-time highs over the years.

Looking back at past halving cycles, there should be strong support at around $25,000, given that $69,000 marked the latest all-time high.

“Don’t take these levels as an exact science. There could be an exchange that traded at a higher or lower intraday level than what’s observed on glassnode,” Hayes reasoned.

“The point is to be generally correct, and with a bit of fudging around the edges we can approximate a range that corresponds to what we believe is the local bottom. For Bitcoin, that’s $25,000 to $27,000. For Ether, that’s $1,700 to $1,800.”

*BTC/USD drawdown from all-time highs annotated chart. Source: Arthur Hayes/ Entrepreneur’s Handbook*

As Cointelegraph reported, however, the same data had been used earlier in the week to deliver a more bearish BTC price target.

Hayes, himself, has said that he would be a “buyer” of Bitcoin at $20,000 and Ether (ETH) at $1,300.

Bitcoin daily mining revenue slumped in May to eleven-month low

Bitcoin miners have had a tough month, with revenue and profitability tanking in May. Hash rates remain high, however.

Bitcoin (BTC) mining revenue and profitability have continued to slide along with the asset’s price this year as the crypto winter deepens.

May has been one of the worst months for Bitcoin miners in the past year as revenue and profitability continue to tank. Bitcoin daily mining revenue tanked as much as 27% in May, according to data from Ycharts sourcing data from Blockchain.com.

On May 1, the analytics provider reported daily revenue of $40.57 million for BTC miners, but by the end of the month, it had fallen to $29.37 million. Daily mining revenue hit an eleven-month low of $22.43 million on May 24.

*BTC daily mining revenue YTD – ycharts.com*

Daily mining revenue spiked to a peak of around $80 million in April 2021 but has since fallen 62% to current levels.

May ended the streak for miners.

Every month since August 2021 saw cumulative mining revenue above $1b until now.

Last month’s mining revenue: $906m

— Zack Voell (@zackvoell) June 2, 2022

Mining profitability, which is a measure of daily dollars per terahashes per second, has hit its lowest levels since October 2020, according to Bitinfocharts. The crypto metrics provider currently reports mining profitability of $0.112 per day for 1 Th/s.

Furthermore, the metric has seen a decline of 56% since the beginning of the year and is down more than 75% since the 2021 highs of $0.450 each day per Th/s.

*BTC mining profitability 1y – bitinfocharts.com*

Bitcoin network hash rates remain high, however, with the current daily average at 211.82 exahashes per second, according to Bitinfocharts. The figure is down roughly 16% from its all-time high of just over 250 Eh/s on May 2.

High hash rates but low profitability may suggest that there is a far greater level of competition in the Bitcoin mining sector than seen previously. In earlier bear markets, miners have powered down their rigs as the asset price dropped and the operations became temporarily unprofitable.

Additionally, miners to exchange flows have just hit a four-month high, according to Glassnode, suggesting that they may be making preparations to sell some to cover the falling revenue.

#Bitcoin $BTC Miners to Exchange Flow (7d MA) just reached a 4-month high of 6.188 BTC

Previous 4-month high of 6.002 BTC was observed on 07 April 2022

View metric:https://t.co/WwBf5cbd33 pic.twitter.com/582pKlSeo5

— glassnode alerts (@glassnodealerts) June 1, 2022

Price analysis 6/1: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, AVAX, SHIB

BTC and altcoins met resistance at a key moving average, leading traders to wonder whether the current pullback is a lower support test, or proof that bears are still in control.

Bitcoin (BTC) has made a tentative start to the month of June, suggesting that bears have not gone into hibernation just yet. Although Bitcoin is trading nearly 55% off its all-time high of $69,000, whales and institutions remain cautious and have not jumped into the market with gusto, according to BlockTrends analyst Caue Oliveira.

According to CryptoQuant contributor Venturefounder, if Bitcoin repeats the historical patterns seen after the previous halving cycles, then a bottom may be formed between $14,000 and $21,000 in the next six months. Thereafter, Bitcoin may chop around the $28,000 to $40,000 range for a large part of the next year and be around $40,000 during the halving.

*Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source:* *Coin360*

Crypto’s bear market has not stopped Goldman Sachs from exploring the possibility of integrating its derivatives products into FTX.US derivatives offerings. This suggests that the investment bank expects derivatives demand to pick up in the future.

Has Bitcoin started a bottoming formation? Is the short-term downtrend in altcoins over? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin reached the overhead resistance at $32,659 on May 31 but the bulls could not clear this hurdle. The Doji candlestick pattern on May 31 indicates uncertainty among the buyers and sellers.

This uncertainty resolved in favor of the bears on June 1 and they pulled the price below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($30,741). If the price sustains below the 20-day EMA, the next stop could be $28,630. The buyers are expected to defend this level with all their might.

If the price rebounds off $28,600, the BTC/USDT pair could again attempt a rally to $32,659. If that happens, the pair may consolidate between these two levels for a few days.

The next trending move could begin if the price breaks above or below the range. If the price soars above $32,659, the rally could reach the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($34,629). The downtrend could resume on a break below the $28,630 to $26,700 support zone.

ETH/USDT

The bears stalled Ether’s (ETH) relief rally at the 20-day EMA ($2,009) on May 31, indicating that they are not allowing the bulls to get a foothold.

The bears will try to pull the price to the vital support at $1,700. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because if it cracks, the ETH/USDT pair could witness panic selling. The pair could then resume its downtrend and plummet to $1,300.

Alternatively, if the price rebounds off $1,700, it will suggest that the bulls are buying proactively at these levels. The bulls will then again try to push the price above the 20-day EMA and challenge the stiff resistance at $2,159.

BNB/USDT

BNB rose above the immediate resistance of $320 on May 30 but the bulls have not been able to build upon this move. This indicates that bears are posing a strong challenge at $325.

The sellers have pulled the price to the uptrend line. This is an important level to keep an eye on in the near term. If the price rebounds off this level, it will suggest that bulls are accumulating on dips. That could enhance the prospects of a break above $325.

Contrary to this assumption, if bears sink the price below the uptrend line, the BNB/USDT pair could drop to the strong support zone between $286 and $265. A break below $265 could send the pair tumbling to the vital support at $211.

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) rose above the downtrend line on May 30 but the bulls could not clear the overhead hurdle at the 20-day EMA ($0.43). This suggests that bears are not willing to surrender their advantage.

The bears will try to sink the price below the downtrend line. If that happens, the XRP/USDT pair could decline to $0.38. The buyers are likely to defend this level and a bounce off it will point to a possible consolidation in the near term.

On the contrary, if the price rebounds off the downtrend line, it will suggest that bulls are attempting to flip this level to support. If that happens, the possibility of a break above the 20-day EMA increases. The pair could then rally to the psychological resistance at $0.50.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) broke above the 20-day EMA ($0.56) on May 30 and followed it up with another sharp up-move on May 31. This pushed the price to the 50-day SMA ($0.70) but the long wick on the day’s candlestick suggests that bears are selling near this level.

The bears will try to pull the price back below the 20-day EMA and trap the aggressive bulls. If that happens, the ADA/USDT pair could drop to $0.44 where buying may emerge.

That could suggest a consolidation inside the large range between $0.44 and $0.74. The flattening 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) just below the midpoint also indicate a range-bound action in the near term.

The bulls may gain the upper hand if the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA and breaks above $0.74. Such a move will suggest that the downtrend may be over.

SOL/USDT

Solana’s (SOL) relief rally is facing stiff resistance from the bears near the psychological level at $50. This suggests that bears have not yet given up and they continue to sell on rallies.

The bears will try to pull the price to the strong support at $40. The bulls are expected to buy the dips to this level. If the price rebounds off this support, the buyers will again try to push the SOL/USDT pair above the 20-day EMA ($51). If they succeed, the pair could rally to $60 and thereafter attempt an up-move to the breakdown level of $75.

On the other hand, if bears sink the price below $40, the pair could drop to the May 12 intraday low of $37. The pair could resume its downtrend if bears pull the price below this crucial support.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin’s (DOGE) price has been trading near the 20-day EMA ($0.09) for the past two days but the bulls have failed to achieve a breakout. This suggests that bears are defending the 20-day EMA with vigor.

The bears will try to sink the price to the strong support at $0.07. This level has held on two previous occasions; hence, the bulls will again try to defend it. If the price rebounds off this support, the DOGE/USDT pair may remain stuck inside a range between $0.10 and $0.07 for some time.

If bulls drive the price above $0.10, it will suggest that the downtrend could be weakening. The pair could then rally to $0.12. Conversely, the downtrend could resume on a break below $0.07.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) is facing resistance at the 20-day EMA ($10.55) but the bulls have not allowed the price to sustain below $10. This suggests strong demand at lower levels.

If bulls push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA, the DOT/USDT pair could rally to $12. This level may act as a minor hurdle but if crossed, the recovery could reach the strong overhead resistance at $14.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and sustains below $10, the decline could extend to the strong support at $8. A strong bounce off this support will suggest that the pair may remain range-bound between $8 and $12 for some time.

AVAX/USDT

Avalanche (AVAX) turned down from the downtrend line on May 31, suggesting that bears continue to defend the level with vigor. The bears will now try to pull the price below the strong support zone of $23.51 to $21.35.

If they succeed, the AVAX/USDT pair will complete a descending triangle pattern, indicating the start of the next leg of the downtrend. The pair could then decline to $20.

Although the downsloping 20-day EMA ($31.33) favors the bears, the positive divergence on the RSI suggests that the bearish momentum may be weakening. If the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the 20-day EMA, buying could resume. The bulls will then try to propel the pair to $38.

SHIB/USDT

Shiba Inu’s (SHIB) recovery is facing stiff resistance at the 20-day EMA ($0.000012), suggesting that the sentiment remains negative and bears are selling on rallies.

The bears will try to pull the price to the strong support at $0.000010. This level is likely to attract aggressive buying by the bulls. If the price rebounds off $0.000010, the SHIB/USDT pair could rally toward the 20-day EMA.

If buyers push the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rise to $0.000014 and later to the breakdown level of $0.000017. On the downside, the bears will have to sink the price below $0.000009 to signal the resumption of the downtrend.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

Bitcoin price risks $29K ‘nosedive’ as Wall Street opens with fresh losses

Weakness across markets means fresh bad news for Bitcoin, with analysts struggling to find any positive news.

Bitcoin (BTC) lost bullish momentum at the June 1 Wall Street open as United States equities faced another day of retracement.

Zooming out, “nothing” has changed

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView captured a sharp U-turn for BTC/USD at the start of trading, $1,600 in three hours.

At the time of writing, the pair traded at around $30,400, giving back the past days’ gains .

For Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, $29,000 was now on the radar after support levels refused to cushion Bitcoin’s initial fall.

“Very simple, Bitcoin needs to hold here to have a test at $33K area possible,” he tweeted as BTC/USD reached $31,150.

“If not, this is going to nosedive quite fast to $29K range.”

The mood down surprised hardly anyone despite the recent show of strength and trip to two-week highs.

For popular trading account Crypto Tony, targets beyond the short term remained firmly in place, these coming as low as $22,000.

$BTC / $USD – Update

My target has been $22,000 – $24,000 for nearly two months now and that isn’t changing due to this small pump. Zooming out what has changed .. Nothing pic.twitter.com/eKNAyT2pO3

— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) June 1, 2022

Fellow account Blake noted ongoing weakness in stocks, with which Bitcoin has been highly correlated, as a sign not to believe that the bottom was in for crypto assets.

“This SPX situation is a big part of why I don’t consider this a “buy the dip” moment for crypto & Bitcoin,” he told followers on the day.

“I’m going to let the markets do their thing for a bit…”

The S&P 500 traded down 1.1% after the first three hours’ trading, as did the Nasdaq Composite Index.

Halving “hopium” is served

Attempting to find some more positive chart features, meanwhile, Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite Decentrader, pointed to historical patterns seen during Bitcoin’s halving cycles.

Current price action, he said, was still following Bitcoin’s lifetime trend, hinting that the familiar pain-before-gain scenario was now also playing out.

If BTC/USD had reached its farthest point from its 2020 halving price in November 2021 , he analyzed, then it would have around six months’ more bearish behavior in store before rebounding into the next halving, due in May 2024.

End of bear correction on the same basis would be pre 2024 halving meaning not done until Q1 2023.

After which the cycle would look like this assuming we hit the bottom returns off the previous cycle like mentioned above sometime in 2025.https://t.co/3IqwyDs88c

— filbfilb (@filbfilb) June 1, 2022

Filbfilb nonetheless cautioned that the theory was more “hopium” than a true prediction.

Cardano price fake-out? ADA’s 45% rebound in two days could trap bulls

ADA price has seen sharp recoveries during bear markets in the past with many turning out to be bull traps.

Cardano (ADA) price climbed from $0.48 on May 30 to as high as $0.68 on May 31—a 45% rally in less than 48 hours. But ADA/USD failed to extend its rally further upward and dropped by almost 13.75% from its weekly high.

ADA price: Ear market vibes

Cardano’s price retreated sharply on June 1, giving up a portion of the gains secured in the previous two days. The question now arises whether the ADA/USD pair can extend its recovery trend, especially as it trades almost 80% below its September 2021 peak of $3.16.

Interestingly, the downside retracement began after ADA tested its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave in the chart below) as resistance. Also, the pair moved lower in tandem with a broader correction sentiment across riskier assets, including Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500 (SPX).

*ADA/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

Now, the Cardano token risks a further price correction, according to the Digital Trend, a financial analysis contributor at SeekingAlpha, noting that ADA has seen sharp price rebounds in the past that turned into bull traps, adding:

“In March, we saw ADA go from south of $0.80 to over $1.24 in a couple of weeks. This, to me, looks like another fake-out.”

Several fundamental factors also support a bearish outlook. On June 1, the Federal Reserve will begin unwinding its $9 trillion asset portfolio, likely creating more headwinds for risk-on assets, Cardano included.

1/16

Today it begins.

Quantitative Tightening.

So what does it mean? Is it a straight down market? Do we know its all good if nothing bad happens the first day?

How do you navigate this?

— Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) (@adamscochran) June 1, 2022

“I don’t think we know the impacts of QT [quantitative tightening] just yet, especially since we haven’t done this slimming down of the balance sheet much in history,” Dan Eye, the chief investment officer of Fort Pitt Capital Group, told Market Watch, adding that removing liquidity from the market would “affect multiples in valuations to some degree.”

Cardano price paints bull pennant

From a technical perspective, Cardano could continue its recovery trend in June due to a bullish continuation pattern.

ADA has been consolidating inside what appears to be a “bull pennant,” confirmed by the price fluctuating inside a triangle structure following a massive move upside, called “flagpole.”

As a rule, a bull pennant resolves after the price breaks above its upper trendline and rises by as much as the flagpole’s height.

*ADA/USD hourly price chart featuring ‘bull pennant’ setup. Source: TradingView*

In other words, a $0.77 bullish target in June, up more than 25% from June 1’s price.

ADA/BTC sees a similar upside setup

ADA has been painting a similar bull pennant setup against Bitcoin, raising the chances of an uptrend for the ADA/BTC pair in June.

*ADA/BTC hourly price chart featuring ‘bull pennant’ setup. Source: TradingView.com*

As a result, ADA/BTC’s decisive breakout above the pennant’s upper trendline could have it rise toward 0.00002355, up 23% from June 1’s price.

Bitcoin may hit $14K in 2022 but buying BTC now ‘as good as it gets:’ Analyst

Bitcoin right now is a no-brainer investment for willing buyers, argues CryptoQuant contributor.

Bitcoin (BTC) faces a “cycle bottom” this year in which it could drop over 50% from current levels, research claims.

In a Twitter thread on June 1, Venturefounder, a contributor at on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, forecasted 2022 as Bitcoin’s year to “capitulate.”

Bitcoin now has “best 3-year ROI ever”

Based on historical patterns involving Bitcoin’s halving cycles, this year should be the bearish black sheep of the current four-year cycle, Venturefounder wrote.

Just like 2018 and its bear market, BTC/USD should find itself a macro floor at some point in 2022, and whcalculating previous dips from all-time highs, this could be anywhere between $14,000 and $21,000.

“670 days until the next Bitcoin halving, we are on time to BTC performance comparing to past cycles,” one tweet explained:

“In the next 670 days, BTC will capitulate in the next 6 months and hit cycle bottom ($14-21k), then chop around in $28-40k in most of 2023 and be at ~$40k again by next halving.”

Such a prognosis, while not music to the ears of bulls, such a prognosis would not be without precedent. After hitting $3,100 in December 2018, Bitcoin managed a recovery to $13,800 seven months later before reversing downhill again to bottom at the March 2020 lows of $3,600.

Even the 2019 local high was not enough to beat the record high of the time set in December 2017 — $20,000.

That level could yet again become a feature of the spot price chart, Venturefounder believes. Those willing to ride the wave and invest — even now — will nonetheless be on the right side of history.

“In other words, buying Bitcoin from this point to the next 6-12 months is as good as it gets. Probably the best 3-year % ROI ever,” he added:

“We may not be at THE cycle bottom, but we are within the range of BTC cycle bottoms. This is the best you can do when timing the market cycles.”

Bottom forecasts keep coming

Others have meanwhile already estimated the likely bottom range at $14,000 or nearby.

That price would represent a drop of around 80% from the current $69,000 all-time high, corresponding to the previous cycle’s low in percentage terms.

Current levels around $31,000 are comparatively modest as a drawdown, data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows.

*BTC/USD drawdowns from all-time highs chart. Source: Glassnode*

Last month, fellow analyst Rekt Capital calculated a potential target of $15,500 once BTC/USD dips below its 200-week moving average.

Sellers may face difficulties in driving the market so far down. MicroStrategy, which owns the largest BTC corporate treasury, has pledged to buy into any cascade toward the $20,000 mark.

Arthur Hayes, former CEO of trading giant BitMEX, has also confirmed that he would be interested in BTC at $20,000.

Axie Infinity V-shape recovery fizzles as AXS price drops 20% from three-week high

Strong correlation with Bitcoin and traditional markets continue to pull Axie Infinity price lower.

Axie Infinity (AXS) price dropped sharply on June 1, suggesting that its supersonic gains in the last two days might have been a part of a bear market rally.

The AXS/USD pair soared 54% week-to-date to over $28 on May 31, its highest level in three weeks. But Axie Infinity price failed to hold the gains, correcting by more than 21% to $22 while raising the possibility of more downside to come.

*AXS/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

Trading behavior witnessed in the last 24 hours supported the downside outlook, with AXS/USD trading volume spiking during the selloff on May 31.

AXS price bear trend

Axie Infinity’s continued exposure to Bitcoin (BTC) and traditional stock markets was also instrumental in pushing its prices lower on June 1.

Notably, AXS’s correction in the said period coincided with Bitcoin’s move lower from around $32,250 to below $31,500 and with U.S. stocks resuming their downward trajectory after the Memorial Day holiday close on May 30.

*AXS/USD versus SPX versus BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

Additionally, AXS’s price correction began near a confluence of technical resistances, containing a support-turned-resistance around the $27–$29 region and the 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave in the chart below) around $29.

No V-shape recovery

If the pullback continues, AXS risks retesting its previous support line near $18.40, down about 20% from June 1’s price. Simultaneously, the persistent positive correlation with Bitcoin and stock markets could mean additional price declines below the $18.40-level.

“There’s no V-shaped bottom here,” argues Michael Antonelli, managing director and market strategist at Baird, noting that the factors that led to the decline across the risk assets in 2022— primarily the interest rate hikes—are going to stay the same in the coming quarters.

Meanwhile, independent market analyst PostyXBT believes that AXS must close above $40 to validate a long-term bullish rebound. Until then, the AXS/USD pair remains at risk of more downside to come.

“Play the relief bounces but don’t overstay your welcome,” PostyXBT told his 79,200 social media followers.