Bitcoin

Billionaire Bill Miller calls Bitcoin ‘insurance’ against financial catastrophe

Miller said Bitcoin “functioned without the Fed and without any interference” during times of market turmoil, concluding that “it’s an insurance policy, the way I look at it.”

Bill Miller the billionaire founder and Chief Investment Officer of investment firm Miller Value Partners, has said he considers Bitcoin (BTC) an “insurance policy against financial catastrophe.”

Appearing on an episode of the “Richer, Wiser, Happier” podcast on May 24 Miller backed the cryptocurrency as a means for those caught in conflict to still access financial products. He used the collapse of financial infrastructure in Afghanistan after the US withdrawal in August 2021 as an example.

“When the US pulled out of Afghanistan, Western Union stopped sending remittances there or taking them from Afghanistan, but if you had Bitcoin, you were fine. Your Bitcoin is there. You can send it to anybody in the world if you have a phone.”

Miller said examples of how the crypto can function as insurance don’t “have to be all or nothing” and noted how Bitcoin performed during the early stages of the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s reaction to it.

“When the Fed stepped in and started gunning the money supply and bailing out, in essence, the mortgage rates […] Bitcoin functioned fine. There was no run on Bitcoin. The system functioned without the Fed and without any interference. Everybody got their Bitcoin, the price adjusted, and then when the Bitcoiners realized, ‘Wait, we’re going to have inflation down the road,’ Bitcoin went through the roof.”

“It’s an insurance policy, the way I look at it,” he added.

Miller also rebuked Warren Buffett’s recent criticism of Bitcoin where the billionaire investor famously remarked that “it doesn’t produce anything” and he “wouldn’t take” all the Bitcoin in the world for even $25.

“He’s said that Bitcoin is a non-productive asset and therefore he can’t value it. Fair enough. If the only thing that you think you can value are productive assets, then no one’s making you buy it, right? So ignore it.”

He later followed up his comment, adding “the objective of investing is not to own productive assets, the objective is to make money”.

Related: Scott Minerd says Bitcoin price will drop to $8K, but technical analysis says otherwise

Miller is famous for managing a portfolio which for 15 consecutive years between 1991 and 2005 consistently beat the returns of the S&P 500 index. He’s also known for his advocacy of Bitcoin and put half of his net worth into the asset in January.

When asked if he still held that position Miller confirmed that about “40% to 50%” of his money was in Amazon stock and his Bitcoin holdings were “about the same as Amazon”, adding that 80% of his net worth is split between the two assets.

Miller also discussed the Luna-based tattoo on the arm of Mike Novogratz, the founder of crypto asset management firm Galaxy Digital after the collapse of the Terra ecosystem:

“Somebody had sent me a picture of Mike Novogratz where he got a Luna tattoo on his arm months ago of the wolf howling at the moon, and it’s big. It’s like, whoops, maybe you should have got a Bitcoin on your arm, it’d be a little more enduring than that one.”

Novogratz has said that the tattoo will be a “constant reminder that venture investing requires humility” as Galaxy Digital posted a $300 million loss on its Luna investments.

“I felt bad for him when I saw some story of him going from something like $10 billion to $2 billion,” Miller said, “I’m like, yeah, that’s really tragic”.

Bitcoin ‘good to go up’ after BTC price hits lowest since Terra crash

A wick to $28,000 sparks hopes of multi-week highs but caution remains over thin order book liquidity.

Bitcoin (BTC) recovered from a major dip at the May 26 Wall Street open as the market quickly exhausted buy support. 

BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Bitcoin volume surges with more expected

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD dropping to $28,000 on Bitstamp — its lowest since May 12 and the Terra LUNA implosion

Progress had already accelerated to the downside on the day, this culminating in a liquidity grab that sent 24-hour BTC liquidations to $117 million.

BTC liquidations chart. Source: Coinglass

A subsequent bounce saw a recovery above $29,000, where Bitcoin traded at the time of writing.

For Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, the swoop to fill bids was enough to ensure some fresh upside.

He added that his existing targets for BTC/USD — $32,800 and $35,000 — remained in force.

Analyzing order book data, meanwhile, on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators warned that given the thin liquidity remaining at lower levels, a future dip could encounter less resistance.

“We are seeing A LOT of Bitcoin liquidity changing hands today. Everywhere a bid wall appears, it gets absorbed,” it told Twitter followers alongside a chart from major exchange Binance.

“Currently there are no more huge bid walls and there is only ~$122M between $28k – $25k. Expecting to see more BTC move on chain.”

BTC/USD order book chart (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/ Twitter

Fellow trading account Il Capo of Crypto, continuing a conservative outlook on near-term price action, predicted that the current bounce would be the “last bull trap” before a return to $25,000 based on order book performance.

May 26 thus stood out from other trading days during the week, thanks to volume returning to BTC/USD markets. As Cointelegraph reported, its absence was becoming a source of concern for analysts.

Bitcoin’s “most important chart” gives hope of recovery

Casting the net farther out, market commentators were keen to see signs of an overall change in trend on Bitcoin.

Related: Bitcoin price may bottom at $15.5K if it retests this lifetime historical support level

For popular analyst Root, those signs came from the behavior of long-term holder (LTHs) on the day.

According to on-chain data, LTHs were finally slowing sales of BTC, as shown by their cost basis leveling out. Cost basis refers to the price at which LTH accounts purchased BTC on aggregate, and when it falls, it reflects declining LTH resolve.

Commenting in Twitter thread, Root described the data as “perhaps the most important chart in BTC currently.”

“For the past months, we’ve had LTH capitulation ⁠— shown by the rapidly falling LTH Cost Basis,” it wrote.

“An uptick is a first sign that LTH’s might have stopped capitulating! Note: early signal, but finally a change in trend!”

He added that those LTH entities selling were those who purchased BTC at the top and that the sales thus had a capitulatory quality to them.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

BTC price breakout due ‘relatively soon’ as Bitcoin volumes spook traders

Low transaction activity is gathering importance as analysts forecast the return of volatility.

Bitcoin (BTC) disappointed bulls on upside prior to the May 26 Wall Street open as BTC/USD returned under $29,000.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Markets “eerily calm” post FOMC

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked an uninspiring day for Bitcoin, with $800 of losses coming in a single hourly candle several hours before the start of trading.

The largest cryptocurrency had avoided volatility on the release of minutes from the United States Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC).

These had avoided any serious divergence from already known facts about economic policy, and despite concerns thatanti-inflation measures could lead to a recession, no mention of the word “recession” appeared in the minutes.

Even legacy markets remained comparatively cool, with analyst Dylan LeClair describing the situation as “eerily calm” based on volatility data.

Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, who on May 25 had predicted a move towards $32,800 for BTC/USD, reiterated that a breakout from its current trading zone was “coming relatively soon.”

For the meantime, however, on-chain signals meant that there was likely no impetus for significant price changes, according to fellow trader and analyst Rekt Capital.

Analyzing on-chain volumes, it became clear that neither buyers nor sellers were prepared to make a bold statement at current levels.

“Previous periods of high sell-side BTC volume preceded periods where buyer volume started trickling in in the following weeks. But now, we’re seeing that a) seller volume is declining over time. And b) no $BTC buyer volume has come in following the high seller volume,” he explained to Twitter followers on the day.

BTC/USD 1-week annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/ Twitter

As Cointelegraph reported, the NVT Golden Cross, a long-term metric designed to catch price tops and bottoms using volume, flashed red this week as it appeared that on-chain transactions were not significant enough to support even $30,000 levels.

Dogecoin targets new yearly lows in altcoin rout

Altcoins presented a mixed bag on the day, with Ether (ETH) noticeably among the weakest of the  major cap tokens.

Related: U.S. dollar index retreats from 20 year highs — but will DXY topping spark a Bitcoin recovery?

With the exception of the May 12 wick, ETH/USD traded at its lowest in 10 months on May 26, hitting $1,815 on Bitstamp.

“The question will be whether we can bounce from here and break the $1,940 level,” Van de Poppe said.

“If that happens, I’m assuming we’ll continue $2,050. If it doesn’t, then the markets are looking at

ETH/USD 1-day candle chart (Binance). Source: TradingView

Solana’s (SOL) daily losses, meanwhile, approached 10%, while Dogecoin (DOGE) was at its lowest levels since April 2021.

DOGE/USD 1-week candle chart (Binance). Source: TradingView

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Price analysis 5/25: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, AVAX, SHIB

Bitcoin and the major altcoins remain stuck in a range as traders search for the next factor that will start a directional move.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been struggling to sustain above $30,800 since May 16, suggesting that demand dries up at higher levels. Similarly, U.S. equity markets have not ceased to decline due to uncertainty regarding the number of rate hikes that will be needed to bring inflation under control

As the crypto bear market deepens, analysts are becoming extra bearish on their projections for the extent of the fall. Trader and analyst Rekt Capital said that Bitcoin could be at risk of falling to $19,000 to $15,500 before a bottom is formed.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

However, Arcane Research recently pointed out that buying when Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed Index reaches a score of 8 had resulted in an average median 30-day return of 28.72%. Interestingly, the index hit 8 on May 17.

Could Bitcoin slide further and pull altcoins lower or is it time for a recovery? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin rose above the downtrend line on May 23 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. The price turned down and dipped to the strong support at $28,630 on May 24 but a minor positive is that the bulls successfully defended this level.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls are again attempting to push and sustain the price above the downtrend line. If they succeed, the BTC/USDT pair could rally to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($31,286).

In downtrends, the bears tend to sell the rallies to the 20-day EMA. Hence, this level may act as a stiff resistance. The bulls will have to clear this hurdle to suggest that a bottom may be in place.

On the downside, $28,630 is the important support to keep an eye on because a break below it could result in a drop to the May 12 intraday low at $26,700.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) dipped below the uptrend line on May 24 but the bulls bought at lower levels and pushed the price back above the uptrend line. This suggests that bulls are trying to defend the uptrend line with vigor.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

However, the bears have not given up and they are again attempting to pull the price below the uptrend line on May 25. If bulls thwart this attempt, the ETH/USDT could rise to the overhead resistance at $2,159.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price breaks and sustains below the uptrend line, it will suggest advantage to bears. The pair could then decline to $1,903. A break and close below this support could pull the pair to the May 12 intraday low at $1,800.

BNB/USDT

BNB climbed above the 20-day EMA ($323) on May 24 but the long wick on the May 25 candlestick suggests that the bears are attempting to defend the overhead resistance at $350.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The flattish 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) near the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears.

If bulls push the price above $350, the advantage could tilt in favor of the buyers. Such a move could clear the path for a potential rally to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($368) and later to $413.

Conversely, if the price turns down and breaks below $320, it will suggest that bears are aggressively selling at higher levels. The BNB/USDT pair could then slide to $286.

XRP/USDT

The bulls are defending the immediate support at $0.38. Although Ripple (XRP) bounced off $0.39 on May 24, the bulls could not sustain the higher levels.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears are again attempting to sink the price below the support at $0.38 but the long tail on the candlestick suggests strong buying at lower levels. If the demand sustains at higher levels, the bulls will attempt to push the price above the downtrend line and challenge the 20-day EMA ($0.46).

On the contrary, if the price turns down from the current level or the downtrend line, the bears may again try to sink the XRP/USDT pair below $0.38. If they can pull it off, the pair could drop to the vital support at $0.33.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) has been trading in a tight range between $0.49 and $0.56 since May 19. This suggests that bulls are attempting to form a higher low but are facing stiff resistance from the bears at higher levels.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price rebounds off the support at $0.49, the ADA/USDT pair may remain stuck in the range for a few more days. The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.58) to indicate the start of a strong relief rally that may reach the breakdown level of $0.74.

Instead, if bears sink the price below the strong support at $0.49, the selling may intensify and the pair could slide toward the May 12 intraday low at $0.40.

SOL/USDT

Solana’s (SOL) attempt to rally on May 23 fizzled out at $54. The failure of the bulls to push the price to the 20-day EMA ($58) indicates that demand dries up at higher levels.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears are trying to sink the price below the immediate support at $47. If they manage to do that, the SOL/USDT pair could drop to $43 and thereafter to the critical support at $37. The downsloping moving averages and the RSI near the oversold territory indicate advantage to sellers.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price rebounds off $47, the bulls will try to propel the pair above the 20-day EMA and challenge the breakdown level at $75.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) has been stuck inside a tight range between $0.08 and $0.09 for the past few days. The bulls tried to push the price above $0.09 on May 23 but failed. This may have attracted selling by the bears who are trying to sink the price below the immediate support at $0.08.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If they succeed, the DOGE/USDT pair could slide to the crucial support at $0.06. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because a break and close below it could resume the downtrend. The pair could then drop to $0.04.

On the contrary, if the price rebounds off $0.08, the pair may continue to trade inside the range for a few more days. The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the psychological level of $0.10 to indicate that the downtrend may be weakening.

Related: Singapore venture firm launches $100M Web3 and metaverse fund

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) has been clinging to the $10.37 level for the past few days. The bulls pushed the price above $10.37 on May 23 but could not sustain the higher levels. This suggests that bears are selling on rallies to the 20-day EMA ($11.23).

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears may try to pull the price to the immediate support at $9.22. If this support cracks, the DOT/USDT pair could drop to $8 and thereafter to $7.30. The bulls are expected to defend the zone between $8 and $7.30 aggressively.

On the upside, the buyers will have to push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA to indicate that the sellers may be losing their grip. The pair could then rally to the breakdown level at $14 where the bears may again mount a strong defense.

AVAX/USDT

Avalanche (AVAX) broke below the pennant formation on May 24 but the long tail on the day’s candlestick shows that bulls bought the dip. They tried to push the price back into the pennant but failed.

AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears are trying to build upon their advantage and pull the price below the immediate support at $26.87. If they do that, the AVAX/USDT pair could slide to the crucial support at $23.51. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because if they fail to do that, the downtrend could resume. The next support on the downside is $20.

To invalidate this bearish view in the short term, the bulls will have to push the price above the pennant and the 20-day EMA ($37.23).

SHIB/USDT

Shiba Inu (SHIB) attempted to break above the immediate resistance at $0.000013 on May 23 but the long wick on the day’s candlestick shows that bears continue to sell at higher levels.

SHIB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The failure of the bulls to push the price higher could attract selling by aggressive bears who will try to pull the SHIB/USDT pair below the immediate support at $0.000010. If they manage to do that, the pair could slide to the May 12 intraday low at $0.000009.

Alternatively, if the price rebounds off the support at $0.000010, it will suggest that bulls are buying on dips. That could keep the pair stuck inside the $0.000010 to $0.000014 range for a few more days.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

Bitcoin price bottom signals flash as ‘fear and greed’ index matches March 2020 lows

On-chain indicators focusing on Bitcoin’s fair valuation and long-term holders’ sentiment also raise its prospects of bottoming out.

Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen by over 67% in 2022 and is now wobbling between a tight trading range defined by $28,000 as interim support and $30,500 as interim resistance.

The selloff appears in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy and the uncertainties in the crypto market led by Terra, an algorithmic stablecoin project whose native token LUNA fell by 99% earlier in the month.

Nonetheless, Bitcoin’s decline has somewhat cooled down as May draws to a close, leaving speculators with the hope that the token is in the process of bottoming out. 

Interestingly, Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed Index (F&G) also hints at the same scenario, notes Arcane Research in its latest weekly report.

Bitcoin F&G readings hit March 2020 lows

In detail, Bitcoin’s F&G reached the score 8 on May 17, indicating “extreme fear,” a first since March 2020.

“We see that buying fear has previously been a profitable strategy when measuring median and average returns of previous extreme fear periods,” Arcane wrote while citing the four instances wherein Bitcoin’s F&G had dropped to 8.

Bitcoin price median returns after reaching ‘extreme fear’ levels. Source: Arcane Research

Meanwhile, Ben Lilly, market researcher at Jarvis Labs, added that Bitcoin’s F&G index falling below ten signals the extreme possibility of the market bottoming out. He also noted that buying Bitcoin when its F&G score is below 10 is a good short-term strategy, saying:

“Turns out the strategy where you hold it for less time produced greater results. Meaning the strategy where you sold after F&G rose above 35 (yellow line in the chart [below]) produced better results than a reading of 50 (orange) and 80 (red).”

F&G returns for Bitcoin. Source: Ben Lilly’s Twitter Handle

On the flip side, Arcane highlighted that not all lower F&G scores have guaranteed bullish retracement moves in the past; some preceded continued selloffs. For instance, Bitcoin dropped nearly 11% on April 7, 2018, just sixty days after its F&G reached extreme fear levels.

More indicators signal bottom

More signs of a possible in the Bitcoin market come from several on-chain indicators.

For instance, Glassnode’s MVRZ Z-Score, which assesses when Bitcoin is undervalued/overvalued based on its “fair value,” is nearing the green zone that had preceded the crypto’s massive rebound rallies, as shown in the chart below. 

Bitcoin MVRV Z Score. Source: Glassnode

Simultaneously, the Long Term Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) indicator, which “evaluates the profit ratio of the whole market participants by comparing the value of outputs at the spent time to created time,” also suggests that Bitcoin is bottoming out. 

Specifically, when the LTH-SOPR value falls below 1, it highlights that some long-term Bitcoin holders could sell BTC at a loss. Conversely, a value above 1 shows that they could sell in profit.

As of May 25, the LTH-SOPR is 0.72, which could mean a potential forming bottom in the Bitcoin market because people will be reluctant to sell BTC at a loss.

Bitcoin LOTH:SOPR (SMA 7). Source: CryptoQuant

Selloff warnings remain for BTC

Nevertheless, the uplifting bottom indicators appear in contrast to a few other bearish signs elsewhere in the market and calls for as low as $15,500 and even below $10,000. 

For instance, Scott Minerd, chief investment officer at Guggenheim, argues that Bitcoin is on its way to $8,000, a 70% drop from today’s price. Minerd cites a hawkish Federal Reserve for the bearish outlook on Bitcoin, whose daily correlation with Nasdaq has been positive since February 2022.

BTC/USD and Nasdaq 100 correlation. Source: TradingView

From the technical perspective, Bitcoin could indeed fall further toward the $22,000-$26,000 range before bottoming out. 

Related: Bitcoin ‘death cross’ data hints 43% drop due in BTC price bear market

These levels coincide with two historical support levels—the 200-day exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the blue wave) and the 200-day simple moving average (200-week SMA; the orange wave)—that marked the end of BTC’s previous bearish cycles.

BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

“Towards the downside, the $25,000 bottom from May 12th is the closest support level below $29,000,” further noted Arcane’s researchers Vetle Lunde and Jalan Mellerud, adding that Bitcoin’s “next critical support level” could be around $20,000, the 2017 peak. Excerpts:

“Towards the upside, $30,500 has been a strong resistance area over the last week. If BTC breaks out of resistance, $35,000 is the next key resistance area.”

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin price bottom signals flash as Fear and Greed Index matches March 2020 lows

On-chain indicators focusing on Bitcoin’s fair valuation and long-term holders’ sentiment also raise its prospects of bottoming out.

Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen by over 67% in 2022 and is now wobbling between a tight trading range defined by $28,000 as interim support and $30,500 as interim resistance.

The selloff appears in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy and the uncertainties in the crypto market led by Terra (LUNA), an algorithmic stablecoin project whose native token LUNA fell by 99% earlier in the month.

Nonetheless, Bitcoin’s decline has somewhat cooled down as May draws to a close, leaving speculators with the hope that the token is in the process of bottoming out. 

Interestingly, Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed Index (F&G) also hints at the same scenario, notes Arcane Research in its latest weekly report.

Bitcoin F&G readings hit March 2020 lows

In detail, Bitcoin’s F&G reached the score of 8 on May 17, indicating “extreme fear,” a first since March 2020.

“We see that buying fear has previously been a profitable strategy when measuring median and average returns of previous extreme fear periods,” Arcane wrote while citing the four instances wherein Bitcoin’s F&G had dropped to 8.

Bitcoin price median returns after reaching ‘extreme fear’ levels. Source: Arcane Research

Meanwhile, Ben Lilly, market researcher at Jarvis Labs, added that Bitcoin’s F&G index falling below ten signals the extreme possibility of the market bottoming out. He also noted that buying Bitcoin when its F&G score is below 10 is a good short-term strategy, saying:

“Turns out the strategy where you hold it for less time produced greater results. Meaning the strategy where you sold after F&G rose above 35 (yellow line in the chart [below]) produced better results than a reading of 50 (orange) and 80 (red).”

F&G returns for Bitcoin. Source: Ben Lilly’s Twitter Handle

On the flip side, Arcane highlighted that not all lower F&G scores have guaranteed bullish retracement moves in the past; some preceded continued selloffs. For instance, Bitcoin dropped nearly 11% on April 7, 2018, just sixty days after its F&G reached extreme fear levels.

More indicators signal bottom

More signs of a possible in the Bitcoin market come from several on-chain indicators.

For instance, Glassnode’s MVRZ Z-Score, which assesses when Bitcoin is undervalued/overvalued based on its “fair value,” is nearing the green zone that had preceded the crypto’s massive rebound rallies, as shown in the chart below. 

Bitcoin MVRV Z Score. Source: Glassnode

Simultaneously, the Long Term Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) indicator, which “evaluates the profit ratio of the whole market participants by comparing the value of outputs at the spent time to created time,” also suggests that Bitcoin is bottoming out. 

Specifically, when the LTH-SOPR value falls below 1, it highlights that some long-term Bitcoin holders could sell BTC at a loss. Conversely, a value above 1 shows that they could sell in profit.

As of May 25, the LTH-SOPR is 0.72, which could mean a potential forming bottom in the Bitcoin market because people will be reluctant to sell BTC at a loss.

Bitcoin LOTH:SOPR (SMA 7). Source: CryptoQuant

Selloff warnings remain for BTC

Nevertheless, the uplifting bottom indicators appear in contrast to a few other bearish signs elsewhere in the market, such as calls for as low as $15,500 and even below $10,000. 

For instance, Scott Minerd, chief investment officer at Guggenheim, argues that Bitcoin is on its way to $8,000, a 70% drop from May 25’s price. Minerd cites a hawkish Federal Reserve for the bearish outlook on Bitcoin, whose daily correlation with Nasdaq has been positive since February 2022.

BTC/USD and Nasdaq 100 correlation. Source: TradingView

From the technical perspective, Bitcoin could indeed fall further toward the $22,000–$26,000 range before bottoming out. 

Related: Bitcoin ‘death cross’ data hints 43% drop due in BTC price bear market

These levels coincide with two historical support levels—the 200-day exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the blue wave) and the 200-day simple moving average (200-week SMA; the orange wave)—that marked the end of BTC’s previous bearish cycles.

BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

“Towards the downside, the $25,000 bottom from May 12th is the closest support level below $29,000,” further noted Arcane’s researchers Vetle Lunde and Jalan Mellerud, adding that Bitcoin’s “next critical support level” could be around $20,000, the 2017 peak. Excerpts:

“Towards the upside, $30,500 has been a strong resistance area over the last week. If BTC breaks out of resistance, $35,000 is the next key resistance area.”

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin ‘finally’ due for $32.8K as long-term BTC price metric flashes overvalued

An uptick to two-week highs is on the cards but longer timeframes still trouble Bitcoin analysis.

Bitcoin (BTC) briefly returned to $30,000 before the May 25 Wall Street open as range adherence lingered.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Trader: BTC should challenge 2-week highs

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD managing to hit $30,189 on Bitstamp before consolidating back under the $30,000 mark.

While appearing uninspiring at first glance, Bitcoin on low timeframes was a source of fresh interest for Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, who predicted a run to near $33,000 next.

“Bitcoin broke through $29.4K and ran towards the next resistance zone,” he told Twitter followers.

“If we hold $29.4K, we’ll be good towards $32.8K. Finally.”

If realized, $32,800 would represent Bitcoin’s highest since May 9 — just before the Terra implosion sparked its cascade to ten-month lows.

Fellow trader Nebraskan Gooner, meanwhile, eyed a series of higher lows on the four-hour chart, highlighting $30,400 as “the line to beat.”

Metric hints BTC price “overvalued”

Beyond intraday price action, however, cold feet among many analysts remained.

Related: Largest difficulty drop since July 2021 — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

For on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, concerning signs from the network transaction value (NVT) Golden Cross metric suggested a retracement was incoming.

Designed to catch local tops and bottoms, a spike in the NVT Golden Cross, as was occurring on the day, reinforced the idea that volume was not sufficient to sustain upwards trajectory.

“We have a significant change in the NVT Golden Cross indicator where it has reached its most overvalued position since April last year before the dip to the June lows,” CryptoQuant contributing analyst Kripto Mevsimi told Cointelegraph.

As Cointelegraph reported, forecasts for a generational bottom in BTC/USD included as low as $15,500 this week.

A new all-time high, meanwhile, might have to wait until 2024, when Bitcoin’s next halving cycle begins.

Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross chart. Source: CryptoQuant

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin price returns to weekly lows under $29K as Nasdaq leads fresh US stocks dive

BTC price action remains at the mercy of equities performance at the Wall Street open.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell on the May 24 Wall Street open as weakness in stocks saw sell-side pressure return.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Equities give crypto no respite

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it revisited its lowest levels of the past seven days.

At the time of writing, BTC/USD traded at around $28,800 amid volatility, having hit $28,614 on Bitstamp — a zone last seen on May 18.

The S&P 500 lost 2.4% on the open, while the Nasdaq 100 managed a 3.5% decline.

In a fresh Twitter update, Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe flagged a pivot point of $29,400 remaining as resistance, opening up the opportunity for a “sweep” of lower support levels.

“No break of that area at $29.4K, so we’ll see levels that Bitcoin could be testing here,” he commented alongside a chart showing the targets.

“Grey zone has been supported the past week, but a sweep and test around $28.3Kish isn’t a bad thing either. Would be massive for longs.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/ Twitter

For on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators, meanwhile, a wall of bid support formed the basis for assessing where BTC/USD could go next.

A subsequent update showed the market eating into the wall, which had little presence below $28,800.

Altcoin drop intensifies

Altcoins once more accelerated declines on the day, with several of the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap approaching 10% daily losses.

Related: Bitcoin dives to fill CME gap amid claim new all-time highs will take 2 years

Ether (ETH) lost $2,000 to trade at around $1,920 at the time of writing and approaching its last line of support above the wick down to $1,700 lows seen last week.

ETH/USD 1-hour candle chart (Binance). Source: TradingView

The biggest loser on the day was Solana (SOL), which traded down 9.3% at $48.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin price may bottom at $15.5K if it retests this lifetime historical support level

The current worst case scenario involves a 28% wick below the 200-week moving average, one theory suggests.

Bitcoin (BTC) could be in for a return to levels not seen since before its 2020 bull market if history repeats itself.

That was according to new analysis released on May 24, which studied Bitcoin’s interaction with its 200-week moving average (WMA).

Bitcoin floor target could be between $15,500 and $19,000

In a Twitter thread, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital explained how BTC/USD could behave should it fall to retest the 200WMA.

A lifeline throughout Bitcoin’s history, the 200WMA is a constantly rising line of last support that has never been definitively broken. 

Currently sitting at around $22,000, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the level continues to act as a line in the sand when it comes to bear markets.

In times past, Rekt Capital notes, Bitcoin has been “wicked” below the 200WMA — briefly capitulating before rising back above, allowing it to remain as support and not instead flip to resistance.

Those wicks, however, have involved up to 28% of the spot price, meaning that should a similar wick occur now, Bitcoin would end up at $15,500.

“BTC tends to wick -14% to -28% below the 200-MA. And since the $BTC 200-MA now represents the price point of ~$22000… A -14% downside wick below the 200-MA would result in a ~$19000 Bitcoin,” Rekt Capital wrote.

“And if BTC were to repeat the March 2020 downside wicking depth below the 200-MA $BTC would revisit the ~$15500 price point.”

BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp) with 200WMA. Source: TradingView

“Pay attention” below $23,000

As Cointelegraph reported, much has been made of Bitcoin price action on May 24 compared to March 2020 at the height of the COVID-19 cross-market crash.

Related: Bitcoin dives to fill CME gap amid claim new all-time highs will take 2 years

Rekt Capital additionally examined historical drawdowns from all-time highs and Bitcoin’s “death crosses” this month, producing a BTC price target of $22,700 — almost exactly at the current 200WM.

“BTC is slowly approaching the 200-MA Historically, the 200-MA tends to offer fantastic opportunities with outsized ROI for long-term $BTC investors (green circles),” he added alongside a chart showing interactions.

“Should BTC indeed reach the 200-MA support… It would be wise to pay attention.”

BTC/USD annotated chart with 200-week MA. Source: Rekt Capital/ Twitter

Fellow analyst PlanB, the creator of the stock-to-flow BTC price models, has also long championed the role of the 200WMA as support.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin dives to fill CME gap amid claim new all-time highs will take 2 years

Don’t hold your breath for a return to $69,000 this year or next, one commentator says.

Bitcoin (BTC) stuck to “rangebound movements” into May 24 as price action avoided expected volatility.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

No joy for BTC bulls after DXY downmove

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD returning to circle $29,000 after failing to hold $30,000 support.

On hourly timeframes, the pair thus continued a familiar pattern of swings between the two zones, refusing to explore more extreme territory either up or down.

“The crucial breaker for Bitcoin is again the $29.4K area. If that breaks -> next test at $30K,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe summarized in his latest Twitter update.

“Overall, range-bound movements.”

The ongoing World Economic Forum Annual Meeting likewise gave no meaningful market-moving signals on its first days as Bitcoiners gathered in Oslo for what Human Rights Foundation chief strategy officer Alex Gladstein called the “diametrically opposed” Oslo Freedom Forum.

BTC/USD did manage to close the CME futures gap to the downside, which had opened at the end of the previous week. 

“U.S. Stocks showing signs of reversal this week. BTC dropped with them and now will pump back with them. Very obvious CME gap fill. Don’t be left behind,” popular Twitter account IncomeSharks continued.

CME Bitcoin futures 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingView

Continuing the macro theme, markets commentator tedtalksmacro offered an explanation as to why crypto and risk assets more broadly were not making more of the new weakness in the U.S. dollar.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) stood at 102 on the day, down three points from its 20-year highs seen last week.

Two-year wait for $69,000?

Looking ahead, meanwhile, hopes of significant gains for Bitcoin were few and far between.

Related: Bitcoin’s current setup creates an interesting risk-reward situation for bulls

For Il Capo of Crypto, the Twitter commentator well known for their sober takes on the BTC price outlook, hodlers should only hope to beat current $69,000 all-time highs in 2024.

That year marks Bitcoin’s next block subsidy halving, when the reward given to miners decreases by 50% from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block.

General consensus already favors a further “capitulation” style event to take BTC/USD below May’s $23,800 lows.

As Cointelegraph reported, current spot price action presents an increasing squeeze on miner profitability. The difficulty was set to decrease by an estimated 3.2% on May 25, its largest down move since July 2021.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.