technical analysis

Ethereum price prints ‘death cross’ after losing 13% versus Bitcoin from 2023 peak

ETH price is in danger of losing another 20% versus Bitcoin by March, based on a mix of technical and fundamental indicators.

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has printed a death cross technical pattern versus Bitcoin (BTC) for the first time since May 2022, suggesting more pain ahead for ETH/BTC in the coming weeks.

Previous ETH price death cross preceded 27.5% drop

A death cross appears when an asset’s short-term 50-period moving average moves below its long-term 200-period moving average. Such a chart pattern was seen in December 2007, foahead of the global economic crisis.

Similarly, the ETH/BTC’s previous death cross in May 2022 preceded an approximately 27.5% price correction, dropping in parts as investors reduced exposure to altcoins and sought safety in Bitcoin amid the Terra collapse.

*ETH/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

The latest ETH/BTC death cross could lead to a similar short-term selloff, primarily due to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s crackdown on crypto staking services. Staking is a key feature of many blockchains, including Ethereum.

Related: Why is Bitcoin price up today?

Meanwhile, capital flows to and from Bitcoin and Ethereum-based funds also reveal BTC gaining the upper hand. Interestingly, Bitcoin-based investment funds have attracted $183 million in 2023 compared to Ethereum’s $15 million, per CoinShares’ latest weekly report.

Next targets for ETH/BTC

The next potential targets to watch for ETH/BTC are best visible on the weekly chart.

Namely, the 0.067-0.065 BTC area, which has served as a strong support level in recent history. A successful rebound here could have ETH price rebound toward its multi-month descending trendline resistance (black) near 0.075 BTC.

*ETH/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView*

Conversely, a decisive break below the 0.067-0.065 BTC range could have ETH enter an extended selloff toward the 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the blue wave) near 0.055 BTC, down about 20% from current price levels.

Notably, the 200-week EMA served as a bottom to the November 2021-June 2022 bear cycle.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

3 technical analysis strategies that help confirm winning trades

A combination of RSI, Bollinger Bands and MACD indicators can help investors confirm winning trades.

Cryptocurrency trading has evolved from the perception of simply being a game of chance to a strategic process. Successful traders rely on a combination of technical analysis, specific indicators and metrics to find trades with a high probability of profit.

Before explaining the three technical analysis strategies that can help confirm a winning trade, let’s first define the key terms:

Technical analysis — is all about analyzing statistical trends, so as long as an asset has historical data, technical analysis can be applied. Technical analysis involves looking at the past trading activity and price variations of a crypto asset, with the goal of understanding how the supply and demand of a specific asset might influence its future price changes. By using charts to evaluate price trends and patterns, it’s often been possible to find profitable trading opportunities.

Indicator — is a tool that helps traders make decisions in the market. Select indicators on cryptocurrency market charts are used to measure different aspects of market activity. Ultimately, traders use them to try and predict potential future price movements.

The three indicators for crypto trading examined here are:

Relative strength index
Bollinger Bands
Moving average convergence/divergence

The key distinction lies in the strategy used to apply what these indicators point to in the market. Below are some best practices on how to use them.

Relative Strength Index

The relative strength index (RSI) measures momentum — whether an asset is overbought or oversold. It does that by comparing the closing price with the asset’s 50-day moving average.

If the current price of an asset is within 10% of its 50-day moving average and has been trending upward for at least two days, the RSI reading is considered to be above 70, which qualifies as overbought; on the other hand, an RSI reading under 30 is thought to be oversold.

A strong upward RSI momentum tends to point to an impending rally.

Look specifically for this type of RSI divergence: two lows, where the first low is higher than the next low, followed by an RSI where a lower low is followed by a higher low. Such a divergence signifies a potential change in momentum, meaning that a sizable upside could be happening soon.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands can be used to determine an asset’s relative high and low price over a set period by using a common statistics metric known as standard deviation.

By plotting bands two deviations above and two deviations below a moving average, typically 20 days, traders can use historical data to compare it to the current price.

Try using Bollinger Bands to identify breakout price action when an asset’s price moves outside of the upper or lower bands. Prices near the extremes of these bands can be another good confirmation of a winning trade.

Moving Average Convergence/Divergence

The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) is a trend-following momentum indicator. The MACD line shows the relationship between two exponential moving averages (EMAs) — the difference between the 12-day EMA and the 26-day EMA.

Finally and most importantly, there is the signal line — a 9-day EMA of the MACD line. With the MACD, traders watch the MACD line and the signal line to see if and when they cross over.

When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, it is a bullish indicator that informs traders to consider buying the asset, as this signals a green candle could be coming.

Conversely, when the MACD line crosses below the signal line, it is a bearish indicator that informs traders to consider selling or shorting the asset. Historically, this leads to a drop in asset value.

Using indicators to confirm winning VORTECS™ Score alerts

Cointelegraph Markets Pro’s VORTECS™ Score is a quant-style indicator providing a “snapshot” comparison between current and past market conditions for a given crypto asset.

Its artificial intelligence-driven backtesting engine performs real-time analysis on a fixed set of quantitative factors to produce a numeric score that predicts when certain assets may be due an ascension in price: a higher VORTECS™ Score means that current market conditions are bullish, while a lower score is bearish.

Many Cointelegraph Markets Pro traders use a certain value of the VORTECS™ Score as a trigger for an entry. Many traders use a value of 75 and over, as 75 is the value at which the VORTECS™ line lights up green on the Cointelegraph Markets Pro platform.

The VORTECS™ line lights up green as XNO exceeds a score of 75. Source: Markets Pro

However, there is a potential obstacle here: While the VORTECS™ Score offers institutional-grade insight into potential asset movements, its predictability can be vastly improved by pairing it with confirmation from the indicators discussed above.

This principle is inherent to trading rather than the VORTECS™ Score — the more arguments that support a trade idea, the more likely it is to be a winning trade.

For Cointelegraph Markets Pro traders who consider a VORTECS™ Score of 75 as a potential entry trigger, here’s how one can use the indicators above to confirm trade opportunities:

1. Using MACD as confirmation of a VORTECS™ Score trigger on ETH/USD.

*The gray line depicts the VORTECS*™ *Score, while the white line depicts the price of ETH. Source: Markets Pro*

On Jan. 10, 2021, the VORTECS™ Score on ETH/USD reached 81, triggering an entry setup. An inspection of the price action on the chart shows the trigger was preceded by a MACD fast line crossing over the signal line, a bullish indicator.

*Blue vertical line shows the time the VORTECS™ Score was triggered. Blue arrow shows the MACD signal. Source: Markets Pro*

By using the MACD as a confirmation tool, astute Cointelegraph Markets Pro traders could’ve used the VORTECS™ Score trigger to capitalize on what was the start of the 2021 bull run for Ether (ETH).

2. Using RSI as confirmation of a VORTECS™ Score trigger on DOT/USD.

*Blue vertical line shows the time the VORTECS™ Score was triggered. Slanted blue horizontal line shows an RSI divergence. Source: Markets Pro*

On Sept. 21, 2021, the VORTECS™ Score on DOT/USD reached 75, triggering an entry setup. An inspection of the price action shows that DOT/USD had just displayed a bullish RSI divergence signal:

DOT/USD had set lower lows (indicated by the slanted blue horizontal line on the price chart), while the RSI had set higher lows (indicated by the slanted blue horizontal line on the RSI chart).

By using the RSI as a confirmation tool, astute Cointelegraph Markets Pro traders could’ve used the VORTECS™ Score trigger to capitalize on a near 100% move for Polkadot (DOT) in two months.

3. Using Bollinger Bands as confirmation of a VORTECS™ Score trigger on DOT/USD.

*Red circle shows DOT/USD exceeding the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands. Source: Markets Pro*

Alternatively, traders using Bollinger Bands could’ve also used the indicator as confirmation for the VORTECS™ Score trigger on Sept. 21, 2021.

DOT’s price chart shows it dipped below the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands on the same day the VORTECS™ Score was triggered, providing immediate bullish confirmation for the trade.

Cointelegraph’s Markets Pro provides traders easy access to institutional-grade tools like VORTECS™ Score triggers and traditional technical analysis. Paired together, these can be the building blocks of creating high-quality, high-probability trades.

See how Cointelegraph Markets Pro delivers market-moving data before this information becomes public knowledge.

Cointelegraph is a publisher of financial information, not an investment adviser. We do not provide personalized or individualized investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are volatile investments and carry significant risk including the risk of permanent and total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Figures and charts are correct at the time of writing or as otherwise specified. Live-tested strategies are not recommendations. Consult your financial adviser before making financial decisions.

All ROIs quoted are accurate as of February 14, 2023…

Bitcoin sees golden cross which last hit 2 months before all-time high

A golden cross completes on the daily chart, but Bitcoin still has to contend with a “death cross” on weekly timeframes.

Bitcoin (BTC) lingered near $23,000 on Feb. 7 as a key chart phenomenon hit for the first time in 18 months.

*BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView*

Battle of the Bitcoin crosses begins

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD tracking sideways overnight, having shunned volatility at the week’s first Wall Street open.

While failing to flip $23,000 to support, the pair nonetheless saw a potentially significant event on Feb. 6 in the form of a “golden cross” on the daily chart.

This refers to the rising 50-period moving average crossing over the 200-period moving average. The last time that this occurred on daily timeframes was in September 2021 — two months before Bitcoin’s latest all-time high.

*BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp) with 50, 200MA. Source: TradingView*

Some crypto analysts have keenly watched the cross, with Venturefounder, a contributor to on-chain data platform CryptoQuant, arguing that $25,000 could reappear as a result.

“Bitcoin goldencross just happened!” he summarized in a Twitter reaction.

“This potential correction could see BTC retest $20k (200DMA and key support), then in the bullish case, test $25k next. Make $25k support and it’s nail in the coffin for the bears.”

*BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Venturefounder/ Twitter*

The picture remained complicated on the day thanks to an upcoming “countercross” on weekly timeframes, where the 50-period moving average remained on course to drop below the 200-period one — a phenomenon known as a “death cross” for its conversely detrimental impact on BTC price action.

*BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp) with 50, 200MA. Source: TradingView*

For on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators, it remained uncertain whether the golden cross alone could propel BTC/USD higher.

“Whether it’s enough to get a legit test of the $25k range remains to be seen,” it wrote in part of a commentary on the Binance order book.

An accompanying chart showed major resistance in the form of ask liquidity stacked at $23,500 — the first major hurdle for bulls to overcome in the event of a move higher.

*BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/ Twitter*

Powell speech “only key factor” of macro week

Another factor on the radar for Feb. 7 came from comments from the United States Federal Reserve.

Ahead of next week’s macroeconomic data prints, multiple Fed officials were set to speak, with Chair Jerome Powell’s words expected to be the most significant regarding market-moving potential.

“Nothing special this week, the only key factor to watch is Powell tomorrow afternoon. Perhaps one more sweep for correction and then the party should continue rallying upwards,“ part of a Twitter analysis by Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe stated on Feb. 6.

Van de Poppe added that “buy the dip” might be an appropriate option on altcoins in the meantime, as Material Indicators noted was already the case with Bitcoin whales.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin 7-month high ‘dominance’ has BTC price eyeing $25K — Will Ethereum spoil the rally?

The Bitcoin dominance index could start falling again if the price of Ethereum can pare its 5% losses versus BTC year-to-date.

Bitcoin (BTC) is rapidly regaining its lost dominance in the crypto market so far into 2023.

On Jan. 30, Bitcoin accounted for 44.82% of the total crypto market capitalization, the highest since June 2022. In September 2022, Bitcoin’s dominance index was as low as 38.84%.

The index typically rises when most crypto investors reduce their exposure to smaller tokens and seek safety in Bitcoin. The reasons include Bitcoin’s better liquidity and lower volatility than alternative cryptocurrencies, or altcoins, primarily in a bear market.

Bitcoin’s market dominance to grow further?

As of Jan. 31, Bitcoin is up 38% year-to-date (YTD) at around $23,000. In comparison, the second-largest cryptocurrency, Ether (ETH), gained 30% in the same period, showing most investors remain gravitated toward Bitcoin so far in 2023.

From a technical perspective, the Bitcoin dominance index may rise further in the coming weeks as it reclaims its 50-week exponential moving average (the red wave in the chart below) as support.

*Bitcoin dominance index weekly performance chart. Source: TradingView*

In doing so, the index could rise toward 48.5%, which has acted as resistance since May 2021.

On the other hand, independent market analyst Rekt Capital sees the Bitcoin dominance index rising toward 46%, which coincides with the upper trendline of a giant descending channel pattern, as shown in the monthly-timeframe chart below.

*Bitcoin dominance index monthly performance chart. Source: TradingView, Rekt Capital*

The short-term bullish scenario in the Bitcoin dominance index chart appears in line with a similar upside in the spot Bitcoin market, with bulls eyeing a run-up toward $25,000.

The strength of #bitcoin on the 4-hour charts continues to be impressive.

While price action has trended sideways for over a week, short term indicators (MACD, RSI) have once again reset… and are now ramping higher.

A price surge to ~$25k is probable.

(Not investment advice) pic.twitter.com/QaPbNrxtxZ

— Dr. Jeff Ross (@VailshireCap) January 29, 2023

Ethereum vs. Bitcoin th main driver of BTC dominance

The bearish argument is that the Bitcoin dominance index may start losing its upside momentum after testing its descending channel resistance, as it had done on several occasions in the recent past.

“Bitcoin Dominance is further overextending beyond red on the Monthly TF,” notes Rekt Capital while citing the index’s horizontal trendline support near 44.11%. The analyst adds:

“A Monthly Close above red could set BTCDOM for another dip into red which would benefit Altcoins.”

*Bitcoin dominance index monthly price chart (zoomed). Source: TradingView, Rekt Capital*

The above analysis appears as ETH eyes a potential bullish reversal versus Bitcoin in the coming weeks.

Notably, the ETH/BTC pair has been consolidating near its support area (purpled) inside the 0.0676- 0.0655 BTC range since Jan. 24.

The ETH/BTC pair will likely see a rebound rally toward its descending trendline resistance (blacked) around 0.075 BTC if it continues to hold the support area. That, in turn, would reduce Bitcoin’s “dominance” in the cryptocurrency market as Ethereum’s share would rise toward 20%.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin 7-month high ‘dominance’ has BTC price eyeing $25K — Will Ethereum spoil the rally?

The Bitcoin dominance index could start falling again if the price of Ethereum can pare its 5% losses versus BTC year-to-date.

Bitcoin (BTC) is rapidly regaining its lost dominance in the crypto market so far into 2023.

On Jan. 30, Bitcoin accounted for 44.82% of the total crypto market capitalization, the highest since June. In September, Bitcoin’s dominance index was as low as 38.84%.

Bitcoin’s market dominance to grow further?

As of Jan. 31, Bitcoin is up 38% year-to-date at around $23,000. In comparison, the second-largest cryptocurrency, Ether (ETH), gained 30% in the same period, showing most investors remain gravitated toward Bitcoin so far in 2023.

From a technical perspective, the Bitcoin dominance index may rise further in the coming weeks as it reclaims its 50-week exponential moving average (the red wave in the chart below) as support.

In doing so, the index could rise toward 48.5%, which has acted as resistance since May 2021.

The short-term bullish scenario in the Bitcoin dominance index chart appears in line with a similar upside in the spot Bitcoin market, with bulls eyeing a run-up toward $25,000.

The strength of #bitcoin on the 4-hour charts continues to be impressive.

While price action has trended sideways for over a week, short term indicators (MACD, RSI) have once again reset… and are now ramping higher.

A price surge to ~$25k is probable.

(Not investment advice) pic.twitter.com/QaPbNrxtxZ

— Dr. Jeff Ross (@VailshireCap) January 29, 2023

Ethereum vs. Bitcoin the main driver of BTC dominance

The bearish argument is that the Bitcoin dominance index may start losing its upside momentum after testing its descending channel resistance, as it had done on several occasions in the recent past.

“Bitcoin Dominance is further overextending beyond red on the Monthly TF,” noted Rekt Capital, while citing the index’s horizontal trendline support near 44.11%. The analyst adde:

“A Monthly Close above red could set BTCDOM for another dip into red which would benefit Altcoins.”

The above analysis appears as ETH eyes a potential bullish reversal versus Bitcoin in the coming weeks.

Notably, the ETH/BTC pair has been consolidating near its support area (purpled) inside the 0.0676- 0.0655 BTC range since Jan. 24.

The ETH/BTC pair will likely see a rebound rally toward its descending trendline resistance (blacked) around 0.075 BTC if it continues to hold the support area. That, in turn, would reduce Bitcoin’s dominance in the cryptocurrency market as Ether’s share would rise toward 20%.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Litecoin ‘head fake’ rally? LTC price technicals hint at 65% crash

LTC price could drop alongside riskier assets as macro analysts sound a bull trap alarm over this potential “head fake” recovery.

Litecoin (LTC) has rebounded by 130% to almost $100 after bottoming out near $40.50 in June 2022. The primary reasons include broadly improving risk-on sentiment and euphoria around Litecoin’s upcoming halving in August 2023.

However, technicals suggest that LTC may wipe out most of these gains in the coming months.

LTC price paints giant bear flag

Litecoin stands to pare its gains mainly due to a giant bear flag on the weekly chart.

A “bear flag” is a bearish continuation pattern that occurs when the price consolidates inside an ascending, parallel channel after undergoing a strong downtrend. It resolves after the price breaks below its lower trendline with a rise in trading volumes.

Litecoin has been painting a similar pattern since early June 2022. Previously, the LTC/USD pair had undergone a 70% price correction from $130 to $40.50. Thus, from the technical perspective, it would resume its downtrend course if its price breaks below the lower trendline.

*LTC/USD weekly price chart featuring bear flag breakdown setup. Source: TradingView*

As a rule, a bear flag breakdown move prompts the price to fall by as much as the previous downtrend’s length. Applying the same setup to Litecoin brings its bear flag downside target to nearly $30.50, or 65% lower than the current LTC price.

Litecoin price “head fake”?

As said earlier, Litecoin‘s price recovery has primarily occurred in line with similar moves across the risk-on market due to cooling inflation .

For instance, the Nasdaq-100 stock market index has risen approximately 15.50% between October 2022 and January 2023. Similarly, Bitcoin (BTC) has rallied by more than 50% since its November 2022’s low of around $15,500.

The weekly correlation coefficient between Litecoin and the Nasdaq-100 has been mostly positive at 0.35 on Jan. 27. Similarly, the correlation between Litecoin and Bitcoin is now around 0.21.

*Litecoin’s weekly correlation coefficient with Nasdaq-100 and Bitcoin. Source: TradingView*

But Mark Haefele, the chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management — along with other many other analysts — has noted that the ongoing risk-on rally could be a “head fake.” In simple words, the ongoing Litecoin rally, under the influence of its risk-on counterparts, could be short-lived.

Independent market analyst Capo of Crypto also agrees, noting:

“The way the upward movement is happening, the way [higher-timeframe] resistances are being tested… it clearly looks manipulated, no real demand. Once again, the biggest bull trap I’ve ever seen.”

Bullish scenario for Litecoin

However, not everyone is bearish on risk assets such as Litecoin. Popular market analyst Rekt Capital sees Litecoin rallying toward $160 in the coming weeks, citing a monthly chart setup as shown below.

*LTC/USD monthly price chart. Source: TradingView*

Notably, the chart shows LTC‘s price undergoing a strong rebound move after testing a multiyear ascending trendline resistance inside the $40 to $50 area, which could qualify it for a further uptrend toward the $120–$160 range.

These upside targets have previously acted as supports and resistances. Breaking this key resistance could therefore invalidate the bear flag setup, which happens 54% of all time, according to research by veteran investor Tom Bulkowski.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

What is an ascending triangle pattern and how to trade it?

Ascending triangle patterns are one of the most popular chart indicators traders use, but it does not always mean the price will rally.

Market analysts rely on many technical indicators to anticipate future trends, one of which is the very-popular ascending triangle chart pattern.

What is an ascending triangle pattern?

As the name indicates, an ascending triangle on a chart forms when the price consolidates between a rising trendline support and a horizontal trendline resistance.

The pattern typically appears during persistent uptrends or downtrends. Most technical analysts see it as a “continuation pattern,” meaning the general market trend is likely to resume.

*BTC/USD three-day price chart featuring ascending triangle breakout. Source: TradingView*

For example, the Bitcoin (BTC) price chart above shows the BTC/USD trading pair forming an ascending triangle pattern between April 2020 and July 2020.

The BTC price breaks out of the triangle range in late July to the upside. It returns to retest the pattern’s resistance trendline as support in September for further bullish confirmation, resuming its uptrend.

However, the ascending triangle is not always a bellwether for bullish continuation, particularly in bear markets. For instance, its occurrence during the 2018 bear market preceded more downside, as shown in the Ether (ETH) price chart below.

*ETH/USD three-day price chart featuring ascending triangle breakdown. Source: TradingView*

There are also instances when ascending triangles signal bear markets’ end. One is Ethereum’s triangle formation between March 2020 and April 2020, which led to a trend reversal to the upside, as shown below.

*ETH/USD daily price chart featuring ascending triangle reversal. Source: TradingView*

So, given these variations in outcome, how do traders use this chart pattern to help reduce risk and better prepare for the next move? Let’s take a closer look.

How to trade an ascending triangle pattern?

The ascending triangle has a widely-tracked measuring technique that could help traders identify their profit targets following a breakout or breakdown.

The target in a bull trend is measured by taking the maximum distance between the triangle’s upper and lower trendline, then adding the distance to the upper trendline. The same applies to ascending triangle reversal setups.

*Ascending triangle pattern breakout target illustration.*

Conversely, the profit target in a bear trend is obtained by measuring the distance between the triangle’s upper and lower trendline. Then, add the outcome to the breakdown point on the lower trendline.

*Ascending triangle pattern breakdown target illustration.*

Beware of fakeouts

Some clues can be obtained by checking the accompanying trading volume. An uptick is typically seen as a sign of strength. Conversely, a flat volume trend hints that the breakout or the breakdown may not have enough momentum.

Using stop-losses on the opposite side of the trend is another tool traders can use to reduce risk in a potential ascending triangle breakout or breakdown scenario. In other words, traders can exit their positions at a smaller loss should the trend reverse before reaching its technical profit target.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Ethereum ‘shark’ accumulation, Shanghai hard fork put $2K ETH price in play

Ethereum on-chain data reveals a considerable rise in the number of Ether shark addresses with weeks before its hard fork in March.

Ether (ETH) price technicals suggest that 35% gains are in play by March 2022 due to several bullish technical and fundamental factors.

Ethereum price rises above two key moving averages

On Jan. 8, Ether’s price crossed above its 21-week exponential moving average (21-week EMA; the purple wave) and 200-day simple moving average (200-day SMA; the orange wave).

Historically, these two moving averages have separated bull and bear markets. When ETH price trades above them, it is considered to be in a bull market, and vice versa.

*ETH/USD daily price chart feat. 21-week EMA and 200-day SMA. Source: TradingView*

The last time when Ether crossed above its 21-week EMA and 200-day SMA was in April 2022. But this was a fakeout, in part due to the collapse of Terra (LUNA) the following month.

But while Ether’s MA crossover does not guarantee further gains, the upside potential becomes greater if one looks at it in conjugation with other bullish factors, described below.

Ethereum’s Shanghai hard fork, shark accumulation

Ether’s price has risen by up to 20% in the first two weeks of January 2023, driven upward by an easing macro outlook and growing anticipation of Ethereum’s upcoming Shanghai upgrade.

The upgrade is expected to go live in March, and will enable withdrawals of staked ETH.

Several experts, including Messari research analyst Kunal Goel and IntoTheBlock head of research Lucas Outumuro, believe the Shanghai upgrade will make staking Ether more attractive despite the sell-off risks of unlocking a large chunk of Ether’s supply.

Meanwhile, a rise in Ethereum’s richest addresses is already underway by entities called “sharks” that hold anywhere between 100 and 10,000 ETH. The number of sharks has grown by 3,000 since November 2022, according to data from Santiment.

*Ethereum shark addresses. Source: Santiment*

This suggests strong accumulation of ETH, which may be a key reason behind ETH’s current rebound so far in 2023.

ETH price eyes breakout above key trendlin

From a technical perspective, Ether is eyeing a breakout above a resistance confluence, namely the 50-3D EMA (the red wave) near $1,395, and a descending trendline that comes as a part of a prevailing symmetrical triangle.

*ETH/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView*

In other words, a decisive close above the confluence could have ETH pursue a run-up toward its next upside target at its 200-3D EMA (the blue wave) near $1,880, up around 35% compared to current price levels.

Interestingly, the $1,880 level was instrumental as resistance in May 2022 and August 2022.

Conversely, a pullback from the confluence would increase Ether’s possibility of undergoing a correction toward the symmetrical triangle’s lower trendline around $1,200, or a 15% price decline from current levels.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Ethereum ‘shark’ accumulation, Shanghai hard fork put $2K ETH price in play

Ethereum on-chain data reveals a considerable rise in the number of Ether shark addresses with weeks before its hard fork in March.

Ether (ETH) price technicals suggest that 35% gains are in play by March 2022 due to several bullish technical and fundamental factors.

Ether price rises above two key moving averages

On Jan. 8, Ether’s price crossed above its 21-week exponential moving average (21-week EMA; the purple wave) and 200-day simple moving average (200-day SMA; the orange wave).

Historically, these two moving averages have separated bull and bear markets. When ETH’s price trades above them, it is considered to be in a bull market, and vice versa.

*ETH/USD daily price chart featuring 21-week EMA and 200-day SMA. Source: TradingView*

The last time Ether crossed above its 21-week EMA and 200-day SMA was in April 2022. But this was a fakeout, in part due to the collapse of Terra (LUNA) the following month.

But while Ether’s MA crossover does not guarantee further gains, the upside potential becomes greater if one looks at it in conjugation with other bullish factors, described below.

Ethereum’s Shanghai hard fork, shark accumulation

Ether’s price has risen by up to 20% in the first two weeks of January 2023, driven upward by an easing macro outlook and growing anticipation of Ethereum’s upcoming Shanghai upgrade.

The upgrade is expected to go live in March and will enable withdrawals of staked ETH.

This suggests a strong accumulation of ETH, which may be a key reason behind ETH’s current rebound so far in 2023.

ETH’s price eyes breakout above key trendline

Interestingly, the $1,880 level was instrumental as resistance in May 2022 and August 2022.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

3 reasons why Avalanche (AVAX) price can double by March 2023

The latest AVAX price rally comes on the heels of Avalanche’s partnership with Amazon Web Services as the cryptocurrency market rebounds.

Avalanche (AVAX) has opened 2023 with a bang, rising nearly 55% in the first two weeks. And now, a mix of technical and fundamental indicators hints that the token will keep rallying into March.

AVAX price breakout underway

The AVAX/USD pair appears to have been forming a falling wedge pattern since May 2022 and has now entered the breakout stage of this pattern.

A falling wedge forms when the price trends lower inside a range defined by two converging, descending trendlines. The pattern resolves as the price breaks out of its range to the upside. As a rule of technical analysis, the price can rise as high as the distance between its upper and lower trendlines.

*AVAX/USD daily price chart featuring falling wedge setup. Source: TradingView*

Applying the theory on AVAX’s falling wedge pattern brings the token’s breakout target at around $34, a 115% increase from current price levels.

Avalanche’s Amazon partnership

AVAX’s bullish setup appears as Ava Labs — the developer of the Avalanche network — becomes an official blockchain solution provider to Amazon Web Services (AWS).

Notably, the firm will implement new features that make it easier for developers to run an Avalanche node through the AWS Marketplace. Additionally, developers can create Avalanche subnets with a few clicks.

The partnership will increase Avalanche’s utility among enterprises and governments in a perfect scenario which, in turn, could boost demand for AVAX tokens. These prospects have helped the Avalanche token rise nearly 30% in a 24-hour adjusted timeframe.

$AVAX

Amazon partnership should get us this pump. Are you ready ? pic.twitter.com/6fCBZ6rbXo

— Crypto Bull ( Until 5th Sep 2025 ) (@holdersignals) January 11, 2023

Macro boosts bullish scenario

AVAX’s bullish falling wedge setup emerges amid improving macroeconomic fundamentals for riskier assets, which may benefit the crypto market in the coming months.

According to a Bloomberg survey, economists are positioned for a drop in the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI). Ideally, declining inflation may prompt the Federal Reserve to stop its interest rate hikes, which leaves investors with excess cash to invest in riskier markets.

The next CPI report will come out on Jan. 12. JPMorgan & Chase sees a 20% probability of the S&P 500 index rising by 3–3.5% if the December inflation figure comes in at 6.4%. The index could rise 1.5–2% if the inflation reading comes inside the 6.4–6.5% range, a scenario with a 65% possibility.

*JPMorgan’s game plan on CPI day. Source: Bloomberg*

Thus, AVAX/USD could rise alongside the U.S. benchmark index on a lowered inflation reading, with a rally continuing at least until the Fed’s meeting on Jan. 31.

Downside risks remain

Meanwhile, AVAX shows signs of indecision near $15.75, a strong resistance level supported during the June to November 2022 session.

If the price fails to close above the said resistance line decisively, the likelihood of a correction toward its next support line near $10.50 increases. The same level was instrumental as support in June to July 2021 session, as shown below.

*AVAX/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView*

In other words, AVAX risks a 35% drop from its current price levels, a move that could invalidate the falling wedge setup altogether.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.