stock to flow

Bitcoin sees record Stock-to-Flow miss — BTC price model creator brushes off FTX ‘blip’

Bitcoin price action since FTX “feels like the world has ended,” says Stock-to-Flow creator PlanB.

Bitcoin (BTC) is now further than ever from its target price according to the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model.

The latest data shows that BTC/USD has deviated from planned price growth to an extent never seen before.

Stock-to-Flow sets grim new record

With BTC price suppression ongoing in light of the FTX scandal, an already bearish trend has only strengthened.

This has implications for many core aspects of the Bitcoin network, notably miners, but some of its best-known metrics are also feeling the heat.

Among them is S2F, which is seeing its price forecasts come under increasing strain — and criticism.

Enjoying great popularity until Bitcoin’s last all-time high in November 2021, the model uses block subsidy halving events as the central element in plotting exponential price growth through the years.

S2F allows for significant price deviations and is not “up only” — but even accounting for these, current targets are far higher than the spot price.

According to dedicated monitoring resource S2F Multiple, Bitcoin should trade at just over $72,000 on Nov. 19, giving a multiple of -1.47.

On Nov. 10, the multiple reached -1.5 — a record negative reading in S2F’s lifetime — as the FTX impact hit the market.

Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Multiple chart. Source: S2F Multiple/ Twitter

PlanB: “Feels like the world has ended”

An alternative iteration of S2F model deviation from analytics platform LookIntoBitcoin produced similar conclusions about this month’s price action.

Related: Bitcoin price may still drop 40% after FTX ‘Lehman moment’ — Analysis

“Price has now strayed further below the S2F line than ever before,” its creator, Philip Swift, wrote in part of an accompanying Twitter post.

“Currently a variance of -1.26 vs. the previous all-time low of -1.21 back in 2011.”

Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model annotated chart. Source: Philip Swift/ Twitter

Nonetheless, PlanB, the pseudonymous analyst responsible for the creation — and now, defense — of S2F, remains cool on its utility.

“It feels like the world ended, but FTX will probably be just a small blip on the long term radar,” he argued in his own tweet.

PlanB has fielded increasingly strong accusations over the model in 2022, these including claims that its basis is fraudulent.

In response to the increasing deviation between target and spot price, he maintained that even a comparatively wide range for price to act within and still keep the model valid was still more useful than no insight at all.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin bounces to $30.7K as analyst presents Stock-to-Flow BTC price model rehash

United States stock markets provide the backdrop for reversal in Bitcoin as $30,000 manages to hold.

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh local highs overnight into June 3 after United States equities cut losses.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Wall Street provides short-term relief

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD gaining steadily to hit $30,670 on Bitstamp before consolidating.

The mood among stocks was more solid during the June 2 session, with the S&P 500 reclaiming the majority of its lost ground over the past month. The Nasdaq Composite Index ended up 2.7%.

Analyzing the crypto market cap compared to the Nasdaq, popular analyst TechDev noted what could be an incoming inflection point.

Fellow trader and analyst Pentoshi, meanwhile, issued a sobering outlook for the S&P 500 on weekly timeframes going forward.

Bitcoin, itself continued to face calls for a retracement, which would eclipse May’s $23,800 lows.

Crypto Tony still targeted between $22,000 and $24,000, demanding a break of a trendline currently near $32,500 to consider long scalping.

“Bitcoin held the $30K level, so long would still be intact from the $29.3K region,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe added on his short-term strategy.

“Now flipping $30.3K would be continuation towards $31.8K possible.”

At the time of writing, BTC/USD lay at around $30,500.

Timmer: Bitcoin supply and demand needs “fresh take”

Zooming out, one on-chain analyst became the latest to take on the increasingly controversial Stock-to-Flow (S2F) BTC price model.

Related: This classic Bitcoin metric is flashing buy for first time since March 2020

Having failed to validate its $100,000 end-of-year prediction in 2021, Stock-to-Flow has become increasingly sidelined as its creator, PlanB, fields criticism.

While acknowledging the model’s potential shortcomings, Jurrien Timmer, head of global macro at on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, revisited it, offering a tweak that he argued would serve to increase its utility.

“It’s time for a fresh take on Bitcoin’s supply/demand dynamics,” a dedicated Twitter thread began.

Timmer proposed taking into account Bitcoin’s supply curve to produce a more conservative trajectory for price growth. The result, he considered, had retroactively already captured BTC price action more accurately than the raw S2F predictions.

“If accurate, It suggests still robust but less pie-in-the-sky upside than before. Maybe even several years of sideways, in line with the halving cycle, and likely continued volatility,” he continued.

PlanB had noted that the May monthly close had been Bitcoin’s lowest since December 2020.

As Cointelegraph reported, the next block subsidy halving event is increasingly figuring as a line in the sand for a return to bullish strength.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.