Stellar

Bitcoin price sets up for an explosive move as ADA, XLM, AAVE and CFX turn bullish

BTC’s tight trading range hints at an eventual breakout, and ADA, XLM, AAVE and CFX could follow.

The long weekend has not produced any fireworks in Bitcoin (BTC) price, which continues to trade inside an ever-narrowing range. Bitcoin is on track to form a third consecutive Doji candlestick pattern on the weekly chart. This suggests that the Bitcoin bulls and the bears are not clear about the next directional move.

It is not only Bitcoin that is stuck inside a range. On April 7, Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at asset manager Fidelity Investments, tweeted that the S&P 500 Index had been stuck inside a range for the past nine months and a breakout was due “sooner or later.”

*Crypto market data daily view. Source:* *Coin360*

Bitcoin’s failure to break above the $30,000 level has attracted profit-booking in several altcoins but a few have witnessed shallow pullbacks. This indicates that traders are holding on to their positions expecting a move higher.

Let’s study the charts of select altcoins that may turn up and start an uptrend if Bitcoin breaks out to the upside. What are the resistance levels above which these five cryptocurrencies turn bullish?

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin has been trading inside a tight range for the past two days, indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears. Usually, tight ranges are followed by an expansion in volatility.

*BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView*

The 20-day exponential moving average ($27,500) is flattening out and the relative strength index (RSI) has gradually been slipping toward the center. This suggests a balance between supply and demand.

If the price tumbles below the 20-day EMA, several short-term stop losses may be triggered and the BTC/USDT pair may dive to the breakout level of $25,250.

Conversely, if the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA with strength, it will suggest that the sentiment remains positive and traders are buying the dips. A rally above $29,200 could enhance the prospects of a rally to $30,000 and subsequently to $32,500.

*BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

The 20-EMA is flattening out on the four-hour chart and the RSI is just below the midpoint. This does not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears. This uncertainty is unlikely to continue for long, and a directional move could soon start. However, it is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout.

Therefore, it is better to wait for the breakout to happen before establishing directional bets. The important level to watch on the upside is $29,200 and on the downside is $26,500. A breach of either level could start a short-term trending move.

Cardano price analysis

The bulls are not allowing Cardano (ADA) to dip below the 20-day EMA ($0.37), indicating demand at lower levels.

*ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView*

The upsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive area suggest that the path of least resistance is to the upside. The ADA/USDT pair could first rise to the neckline of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. A break and close above this resistance will signal a potential trend change. The pair could then rally toward the pattern target of $0.60.

If bears want to prevent the up-move, they will have to quickly yank the price back below the 20-day EMA. The pair may then drop to the 200-day simple moving average ($0.35) and later to $0.30.

*ADA/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

The four-hour chart shows that the bulls have pushed the price above the 20-EMA and will next try to overcome the barrier at the downtrend line. If they do that, it will suggest that the pullback may be over. The pair may then climb to the neckline where the bears are expected to mount a strong defense.

Contrarily, if the price faces rejection at the downtrend line, it will suggest that bears are active at higher levels. The selling could accelerate below $0.37 and the pair may plunge to the 200-SMA.

Stellar price analysis

Stellar (XLM) turned down from the overhead resistance of $0.12 and the price is nearing the 20-day EMA ($0.10). The bulls are likely to buy the dips to the 20-day EMA.

*XLM/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView*

If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, the bulls will again try to clear the overhead hurdle. If they succeed, the XLM/USDT pair will complete a bullish rounding bottom pattern. That could signal the start of a new up-move. The pair may first rally to $0.15 and thereafter march toward the pattern target of $0.17.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bulls are losing their grip. The pair may then drop to the 200-day SMA ($0.09). This is a make-or-break level for the bulls because if it cracks, the pair may plummet to $0.07.

*XLM/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

The four-hour chart shows that the pair is correcting inside a falling wedge pattern. The price has bounced off the support line and the bulls will next attempt to propel the pair above the wedge. If they manage to do that, the pair could rally to $0.11 and subsequently to $0.12.

On the other hand, if the price turns down and plummets below the support line, it will suggest that the selling has intensified. There is a small support at $0.10 but if that cracks, the decline could extend to the 200-SMA.

Aave price analysis

Aave (AAVE) has turned down from the overhead resistance of $82, indicating that the bears are fiercely protecting this level. They have pulled the price below the immediate support at the 20-day EMA ($75).

*AAVE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView*

The AAVE/USDT pair could next slip to the 200-day SMA ($73), which is close to the uptrend line. Buyers are likely to defend this level with vigor. If the price rebounds off the uptrend line and breaks above the 20-day EMA, the pair could reach $82.

If bulls overcome this barrier, the pair will complete an ascending triangle pattern. This setup has a target objective of $100. This bullish view will invalidate if the price continues lower and breaks below the uptrend line. The pair may then slide to $68 and later to $64.

*AAVE/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

The bears have pulled the price to the 200-SMA on the four-hour chart. The 20-EMA has started to turn down and the RSI is in the negative territory, indicating that bears have the upper hand.

If the 200-SMA gives way, the pair could decline further to the uptrend line. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because a break below it will further strengthen the bears.

On the upside, a break above the 20-EMA will be the first sign that the bulls are making a comeback. The pair may then rise to the overhead resistance at $82.

CFX price analysis

Conflux (CFX) has been in a corrective phase for the past few days but a minor positive is that the bulls are trying to defend the 20-day EMA ($0.36).

*CFX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView*

If the price rebounds off the current level, the CFX/USDT pair could reach the downtrend line. This is an important level for the bears to guard because a break above it could open the doors for a possible rally to $0.44 and then $0.49.

Conversely, if the price plunges and sustains below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bulls may be rushing to the exit. That could attract further selling, pulling the price toward the next support at $0.30. The bulls are expected to buy the dips to this level.

*CFX/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

The four-hour chart shows that the bears are trying to keep the price below the 20-EMA. That could pull the pair to the 200-SMA, which is likely to act as a major support.

If the price rebounds off this level, the bulls will again try to drive the price to the downtrend line. This is the key level to keep an eye on because a break above it will signal that bulls are back in the game.

On the downside, a break and close below the $0.30 support could attract further selling, sinking the price to $0.25.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Stellar’s XLM bounces 15% two days after hitting record low versus XRP

XLM price is playing catchup to XRP’s March gains, quickly rising 25% versus the U.S. dollar while the XLM/XRP pair bounces from record lows.

The price of Stellar (XLM) rebounded 15% versus its arch-rival XRP (XRP) two days after the XLM/XRP pair set a record low of 0.181.

Notably, the XLM/XRP pair rose to its intraday high of 0.20 XRP on March 31, coinciding with a decoupling between Stellar and XRP in the U.S. dollar market. For instance, XLM’s price has jumped over 11% since March 29 versus XRP’s 3% decline.

*XLM/XRP weekly price chart. Source: TradingView*

XLM price eyes 10% gains versus XRP in April

On a broader timeframe, XLM dropped 89% versus its peak of 1.655 XRP in January 2021. Interestingly, the peak formed a month after the United States Securities and Exchange Commission sued Ripple for allegedly selling securities in the form of XRP tokens.

The SEC vs. Ripple case is now nearing its conclusion, with legal experts favoring a win for Ripple.

Meanwhile, XLM continues its long-term downtrend against XRP, though a rebound in April is on the cards.

On the daily chart, the XLM/XRP’s ongoing recovery started at its multimonth descending trendline resistance, which constitutes a falling channel, as shown below.

*XLM/XRP daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

The pair now looks toward flipping the 0.198–0.207 XRP resistance range as support to eye a run-up toward 0.22 XRP in April, up 10% from current prices.

XLM looks equally bullish versus the U.S. dollar

The Stellar price rallied more than 25% in March to reach $0.113, its highest level in four months. XLM is now positioned for a potential short-term price correction in the first week of April, followed by a rebound rally to new yearly highs.

At the core of this bullish outlook is a classic technical pattern dubbed cup-and-handle . The pattern forms when the price undergoes a U-shaped recovery, or cup, followed by a consolidation period, i.e., the handle, all under a common resistance level called “neckline.“

Meanwhile, it resolves after the price breaks above the neckline and rises by as much as the distance between the cup’s bottom and neckline.

Notably, XLM has been painting a similar cup-and-handle since November 2022. XLM/USD entered the pattern’s breakout stage during its price boom in March, and is now 20% away from reaching the breakout target near $0.131.

*XLM/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

Nonetheless, XLM’s daily relative strength index has entered its overbought zone above 70, suggesting a consolidation or correction period in the first week of April. As it happens, XLM’s price risks correcting toward its neckline at around $0.095, down 12% from current price levels.

Related: Why is XRP price up today?

Ideally, traders perceive such corrections as a method to analyze cup-and-handle’s breakout strength. So the breakout scenario will be confirmed when the price bounces from the neckline, accompanied by a rise in trading volumes.

Conversely, if the price closes below the neckline with a rise in volumes, it risks invalidating the cup-and-handle breakout scenario altogether.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Stellar partners with UNHCR to give Ukrainian refugees cash via USDC

One new project attempts to help bankless Ukrainian refugees, while another hopes to streamline international Red Cross projects.

Humanitarian groups have increasingly used blockchain technology to solve problems with lack of banking or inadequate identity verification in developing or war-torn nations.

Two new projects have been announced in December, including one that provides cash aid to Ukrainian refugees through the Stellar network and another that plans to offer cash and vouchers through the Partisia network.

But past blockchain projects have had mixed results. Some projects have been effective at allowing recipients to bypass red tape and receive the aid they need, but for others theuse of blockchain has turned out to be superfluous.

On Dec. 15, Stellar Development Foundation announced that it has formed a partnership with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) to offer USD Coin (USDC) on the Stellar network as a form of cash assistance to Ukrainian refugees.

The USDC tokens will be redeemable at any MoneyGram location. The creators of the program believe this will make it easier for refugees to receive aid even if they don’t have bank accounts or can’t access the ones that they do have.

Just announced: @RESCUEorg and @StellarOrg announced a first-of-its-kind blockchain-powered aid disbursement system available today in Ukraine. #StellarIRL https://t.co/310U1GBqt2

— Stellar (@StellarOrg) December 15, 2022

Tori Samples, Stellar aid assistant product manager, told Cointelegraph that by partnering with Moneygram for cash-out and by using Circle’s USDC digital dollar, “the whole solution becomes meaningful and accessible for people living in crisis.”

“This product was specifically designed to meet the needs of aid organizations delivering assistance in difficult environments. It can’t be experimental or not hold up to real-world use. Donor dollars are some of the most scrutinized in the entire world. The fact that some of the largest aid organizations are using Stellar Aid Assist today in Ukraine shows that it has real-world value and the potential to scale.”

Earlier this month, on Dec. 2, Partisia Blockchain Foundation held a “hackathon” in collaboration with the International Committee of the Red Cross. The goal of the event was to find ways that the Partisia network could be used to make Red Cross humanitarian aid payments more efficient.

History of ‘humanitarian blockchain’

While these attempts to utilize blockchain are worthy, the sector has a checkered history.

In an August paper titled “Humanitarian Blockchain: Inventory and Recommendations,” researchers from the Digital Humanitarian Network examined past attempts to leverage blockchain for the benefit of aid recipients. They found that blockchain did help some organizations to be more efficient at delivering aid, but in other cases, the technology had to be discarded because it didn’t add value.

It cited Building Blocks, a blockchain initiative started by the World Food Programme as an example of a successful project. It aimed to solve the problem of duplicative aid, or multiple aid services providing the same aid to the same people.

The project involved a permissioned blockchain network that allowed different aid organizations to collaborate with each other and share data. This removed silos between humanitarian groups and helped them to effectively target their aid where it was most effective. Building Blocks is still in operation today.

On the other hand, Direct Cash Aid, a program created by a consortium of 121 different humanitarian groups, had to abandon blockchain after it was found that the tech didn’t help its goals. Direct Cash Aid intended to use a blockchain-based self-sovereign identity (SSI) to help recipients in Ethiopia, Malawi, Kenya and the Netherlands who couldn’t establish their own proof of identity.

After experimenting with SSI, the program administrators realized that most recipients didn’t have smartphones, nor could they get adequate internet access. In addition, many aid organizations didn’t want to collaborate or didn’t trust the identity verification performed by other organizations. As a result, the SSIs created by the program “proved to currently have no value.” The program ended up scrapping its blockchain aspects in favor of more centralized identity verification systems.

Stellar Development Foundation launches $100M fund to support native smart contract adoption

The Soroban Adoption Fund incentivizes developers to begin building products and tools on the new smart contract platform.

Stellar Development Foundation (SDF), the nonprofit organization supporting the development of the Stellar network, has launched a new funding initiative to encourage developers to build on the Soroban smart contract platform, which officially went live on Futurenet on Oct. 11.

Soroban brings Turing-complete smart contracts to the Stellar blockchain, enabling developers to build new financial services rails on the network, SDF said. Tomer Weller, SDF’s vice president of technology strategy, said Soroban was developed to overcome the “friction” of other blockchain networks. In an emailed response to Cointelegraph, Weller further explained:

“When we looked at what was out there in the market today, the smart contract landscape is predominantly made up of solutions that are patchworked together, peppered with varying quality of tooling, hard to implement, and to top it all off, pretty expensive. It made us want to build something better.”

With Soroban going live on Futurenet, developers can begin testing the smart contract platform and potentially receive rewards for doing so. The foundation has allocated $100 million to support Soroban adoption, with the first incentive program soliciting feedback through code examples, tutorials and identifying GitHub issues.

SDF said the new funding initiative is designed to attract more builders to the Stellar network at a time when competition for Web3 developers and researchers is far outpacing the available supply. Although several crypto firms have laid off staff amid the bear market, demand for talent remains high and is gradually decoupling from short-term market trends.

As far as blockchain projects are concerned, Stellar is among the oldest and most established, having been founded in 2014 by Jed McCaleb. Before Stellar, McCaleb founded Bitcoin (BTC) exchange Mt. Gox and was the co-creator of Ripple.

UFC fighter El Ninja to become first argentinian athlete paid in crypto

Beyond the Octagon, Guido Cannetti fights Argentina’s 78% inflation rate with USDC stablecoin.

Guido Cannetti, an Argentinian Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) fighter, is now the first martial arts athlete in the country to receive 100% of his salary in stablecoins, amid rising inflation and Argentina’s economic deteriorating, announced the crypto payroll company Bitwage on Monday.

Dubbed El Ninja, he returns to the Octagon on October 1st in the United States to face the local fighter Randy Costa. According to Bitwage, Guido will receive his payment in USDC stablecoin via the Stellar Network on Vibrant, a wallet application developed by the Stellar team specifically for Argentines experiencing inflation.

As per official government figures’, inflation in the 12 months through August was 78.5% in the country, whereas prices in the first eight months of the year were up 56.4%. Argentina’s central bank predicted a 95% inflation rate for the year, while some private analysts forecasted a 100% inflation rate in 2022.

“I am getting paid in USDC because it is safer for my future,” said Cannetti in a statement released by Bitwage, noting that stablecoins will spare him from the volatility and devaluation of local currency.

Among Argentine consumers surveyed by Americas Market Intelligence in April, 51% purchased crypto and 27% regularly bought cryptocurrencies, up from 12% adoption at the end of 2021. Inflation protection is the primary reason for 67% of respondents’ purchases of cryptocurrencies.

US dollar-pegged stablecoin prices surged in July following Martin Guzman’s abrupt resignation as Economy Minister. His fiscal policies aimed at reducing budget deficits and tightening monetary policy divided opinions in Argentina’s government. In the country’s black-market, the exchange rate was at 287 pesos per dollar at press time, according to the website DolarHoy.

UFC fighter El Ninja to become first Argentine athlete paid in crypto

Beyond the Octagon, Guido Cannetti fights Argentina’s 78% inflation rate with USDC stablecoin.

Guido Cannetti, an Argentinian Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) fighter, is now the first martial arts athlete in the country to receive 100% of his salary in stablecoins amid rising inflation and Argentina’s economic deterioration, announced the crypto payroll company Bitwage on Monday.

Dubbed El Ninja, he returns to the Octagon on Oct. 1 in the United States to face the local fighter Randy Costa. According to Bitwage, Guido will receive his payment in USD Coin (USDC) stablecoin via the Stellar Network on Vibrant, a wallet application developed by the Stellar team specifically for Argentines experiencing inflation.

According to official government figures, inflation in the 12 months through August was 78.5% in the country, whereas prices in the first eight months of the year were up 56.4%. Argentina’s central bank predicted a 95% inflation rate for the year, while some private analysts forecasted a 100% inflation rate in 2022.

U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin prices surged in July following Martin Guzman’s abrupt resignation as Argentina’s economy Minister. His fiscal policies aimed at reducing budget deficits and tightening monetary policy divided opinions in Argentina’s government. In the country’s black market, the exchange rate was at 287 pesos per USD at press time, according to the website DolarHoy.

Ripple co-founder Jed McCaleb adds space station-building to resume

Stellar’s chief technology officer and co-founder is now building a team of industry experts and engineers to pioneer a new frontier of space exploration.

Blockchain technology pioneer Jed McCaleb is shifting some of his focus to a new frontier, space.

The prominent crypto billionaire announced the launch of his new venture Vast on Tuesday, which is aimed at expanding “human habitation in space” — “enabling a future where millions of people are living across the solar system.”

According to a company statement, the space habitation startup was founded by McCaleb in 2021 and will be tasked with developing the world’s first artificial-gravity space station to essentially allow humans to live and work in space.

Pioneering the world’s first #artificialgravity space station, #Vast is excited to announce our mission to expand in-space capabilities by enabling scalable solutions for humans to live and work in space. https://t.co/Kn9kjFqaDu

— Vast (@vast) September 12, 2022

McCaleb’s long history of being on the cutting edge of technology began in 2000, when he created eDonkey2000, one of the largest file-sharing networks of the time. In 2007, he founded another company that developed a videogame called The Far Wilds.

He is the creator of Magic: The Gathering Online Exchange, a well-known trading card website that was eventually converted to a Bitcoin exchange called Mt. Gox in 2011. He is also a Ripple Labs co-founder, though he left the company in June 2013.

After McCaleb left Ripple, he founded the Stellar Development Foundation in 2014.

McCaleb says he hopes to use his expertise to enable humanity to access the “incredible amount of resources” in our solar system, stating:

“I have always believed in leveraging technology to reduce inefficiency and improve the human condition. To expand human habitation in space, we have to create technologies that perfect sustainability.”

According to McCaleb, he is assembling a “world-class team” of engineers with the support of multiple seasoned industry experts to create technology previously only seen in science fiction.

“Artificial gravity is not science fiction. It only requires a large spinning structure. The resulting centrifugal force provides a gravity-emulative pull.”

NASA has laid out its plan to decommission and deorbit the International Space Station (ISS) by 2031 possibly signaling a chance for commercial businesses to step in and provide replacement facilities.

It’s unclear where Vast’s funding for the space station project is coming from, but according to Forbes, McCaleb’s net worth is at least 2.5 billion as of 2022.

However, other sources claim it to be much higher due to the billions of XRP tokens he received as a founding member of Ripple Labs in 2012, which he had been methodically selling off over the course of eight years until July 18, when his stash ran empty.

MoneyGram’s USDC transfer service launches in several countries

The payment service, which is powered by the Stellar blockchain, will enable USDC settlement with MoneyGram in “near-real-time.”

Cross-border transfer service MoneyGram officially launched its stablecoin-powered payment channel on Friday, giving users the ability to send USD Coin (USDC) payments worldwide that can be withdrawn as cash by recipients.

The service is being rolled out across several key remittance markets, including Canada, the United States, Kenya and the Philippines, Circle and MoneyGram announced Friday. Global cash-out functionality will be available by the end of June. To encourage adoption, the USDC transfer service will carry zero fees for the first 12 months.

As Cointelegraph reported, MoneyGram’s new transfer service was built on the Stellar (XLM) blockchain and allows Stellar wallet users to send USDC to recipients around the world. The service is intended to bridge the gap between digital assets and physical cash currency, as well as demonstrate the utility of crypto payments.

It’s official: @DenelleDixon announces the launch of @MoneyGram and @StellarOrg‘s crypto-to-cash service. pic.twitter.com/vzAzlBNDxD

— Stellar (@StellarOrg) June 10, 2022

Stellar Development Foundation CEO Denelle Dixon said the new transfer channel will help the world’s unbanked population access the digital economy for the first time. While estimates vary, the World Bank says that roughly 1.7 billion adults are unbanked, which means they lack access to an account at a financial institution. Whether through decentralized finance, central bank digital currencies or crypto-powered transfer and settlement services, blockchain technology has been posited as a potential solution to financial exclusion.

In related news, Circle announced Friday that it had a definitive agreement to acquire crypto infrastructure platform CYBAVO, which it believes will further pave the way for USDC adoption.

Circle’s USDC is the second-largest stablecoin by market capitalization and maintains a one-for-one dollar peg backed by cash and short-dated U.S. Treasuries.

Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, ADA, XLM, XMR, MANA

BTC appears to be in the early stage of a recovery this week, and ADA, XLM, XMR and MANA could follow.

The bears are trying to extend Bitcoin’s (BTC) record of nine consecutive red weekly candles to ten weeks, but the bulls are trying to avert this negative occurrence. Although sentiment remains negative, Arthur Hayes, former CEO of derivatives giant BitMEX, anticipates Bitcoin to bottom out in the range of $25,000 to $27,000.

On-chain data from Glassnode shows that smart money may have started accumulating Bitcoin. The net outflows from major cryptocurrency exchanges reached 23,286 Bitcoin on June 3, the highest since May 14.

Another positive sign of accumulation is that investment into Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) was strong in May and has only risen further in the first two days of June, according to an Arcane Research report. The ETPs hold 205,000 Bitcoin under management, which is a new record.

Could Bitcoin turn up and start a recovery? If that happens, could select altcoins follow the leader? Let’s study the charts of the top-5 cryptocurrencies that may lead the relief rally.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin plunged below the 20-day exponential moving average ($30,459) on June 1. The bulls attempted to push the price back above the 20-day EMA on June 2 and June 3 but the bears did not relent.

The bears will try to pull the price below the strong support at $28,630. If they manage to do that, the BTC/USDT pair could drop to the vital support at $26,700. The buyers are expected to defend this support zone with all their might because if they fail to do that, the downtrend may resume.

On the upside, the bulls will have to push and sustain the price above $32,659 to suggest that a new uptrend could be starting. The bullish momentum could pick up on a break and close above the 50-day simple moving average ($33,778). The pair could then rally to the pattern target of $36,688 and thereafter to $40,000.

The 4-hour chart shows that the price action is getting squeezed. Although bulls pushed the price above the 20-EMA, they are facing stiff resistance at the 50-SMA. This suggests that bears are active at higher levels.

A minor positive in favor of the bulls is that they have not allowed the price to break below the support at $29,282.

If the price rises from the current level and breaks above the downtrend line, the bulls will attempt to push the pair to the 200-SMA. Conversely, if the price breaks below $29,282, the next stop could be $28,630.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) broke above the downtrend line on May 31 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels as seen from the long wick on the day’s candlestick.

Although the bears have successfully defended the downtrend line, a minor positive is that the bulls have held the ADA/USDT pair above the 20-day EMA ($0.56). This increases the possibility of a break above the downtrend line.

If that happens, the pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($0.67) where the bears may again pose a strong challenge. A break and close above this level will suggest a potential change in trend. The pair could then rally to the breakdown level of $0.74.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and plummets below $0.53, the bears will try to pull the pair to $0.50 and later to $0.44.

The 4-hour chart shows that the price has been squeezed between the 200-SMA and the 50-SMA but this tight range trading is unlikely to continue for long. If bulls propel the price above the 200-SMA, the pair could attempt a rally to $0.64. A break and close above this level could open the doors for a possible rally to $0.69.

Conversely, if the price turns down and breaks below $0.53, the selling could pick up momentum. The pair may then decline to $0.50 and later to $0.47.

XLM/USDT

Stellar (XLM) rallied above the 20-day EMA ($0.14) on May 30, which was the first indication that the selling pressure may be reducing. The bears stalled the up-move near the 50-day SMA ($0.15) but they haven’t been able to sink and sustain the price below the 20-day EMA.

This suggests that the bulls are buying the dips to the 20-day EMA. If bulls drive the price above the 50-day SMA, it will suggest the start of a sustained recovery. The XLM/USDT pair could then attempt a rally to $0.18 and later to the 200-day SMA ($0.21).

This positive view will invalidate in the short term if the price turns down and breaks below $0.13. Such a move will suggest that demand dries up at higher levels. That could pull the pair down to $0.12. If this support also gives way, the bears will try to resume the downtrend by sinking the pair below the psychological level of $0.10.

The 4-hour chart shows the price is trading inside a symmetrical triangle. If bulls push the price above the resistance line of the triangle, the pair could rally to $0.15 and thereafter attempt a rally to the pattern target of $0.17.

Alternatively, if the price turns down from the current level, the bears will try to sink the pair below the support line of the triangle. If they do that, the selling could intensify and the pair may slide to the strong support at $0.13.

XMR/USDT

Monero’s (XMR) failure to rise above the 50-day SMA ($202) may have tempted short-term traders to book profits. That has pulled the price down to the 20-day EMA ($189).

The bulls are attempting to defend the 20-day EMA but the lack of a strong bounce off it suggests weak demand. If the price sustains below the 20-day EMA, the next stop could be the uptrend line. A break and close below this support could pull the price down to $167.

On the contrary, if the price rebounds off the current level, the buyers will attempt to overcome the resistance zone between the 50-day SMA and $210. If they manage to do that, the XMR/USDT pair could extend its rally to $230.

*XMR/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

The pair has been declining inside a descending channel, suggesting a minor advantage to sellers. If bears sink the price below the channel, the negative momentum may pick up and the pair could slide to $167.

Alternatively, if the price rebounds off the support line, the buyers will try to propel the pair above the channel. If they manage to do that, the pair could again attempt a break above the overhead resistance at $210.

MANA/USDT

Decentraland (MANA) has failed to break above the 20-day EMA ($1.06) for the past several days but a minor positive is that the bulls have not given up much ground. This suggests that the bulls are buying on dips as they anticipate a move higher.

If bulls propel the price above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bears are losing their grip. The MANA/USDT pair could then rise to the overhead resistance at $1.36. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break and close above it could signal that a bottom may be in place. The pair could then rally to $1.68.

Conversely, if the price turns down and breaks below $0.90, it will suggest that the bears are in no mood to surrender their advantage. The pair could then retest the crucial support at $0.60. The bears will have to pull the price below this support to indicate the resumption of the downtrend.

*MANA/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

The 4-hour chart shows that the pair has been trading inside a tight range between $0.94 and $1.04. The gradually downsloping 20-EMA and the RSI in the negative territory suggest a slight advantage to sellers. If bears pull the price below $0.94, the pair could drop to $0.90.

On the contrary, if bulls push the price above $1.04, it will suggest that demand exceeds supply. That could open the doors for a possible rally to the stiff overhead resistance at $1.15.

If the price turns down from this level, the pair may oscillate between $0.90 and $1.15 for some more time. A break and close above $1.15 could suggest that buyers have the upper hand.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Here are 3 altcoins that could surge once Bitcoin flips $35K to support

ADA, MATIC and XLM appear well positioned for a bullish breakout once BTC flips the $32,000 to $35,000 zone to support.

Bitcoin (BTC) and the wider cryptocurrency market are taking a breather after the rally on May 31. Meanwhile, most altcoins remain severely oversold, with most between 70% and 90% below their all-time highs.

What is clear is that fear is everywhere and blood is in the water. Risk-on markets are suffering worldwide, but it is exactly these kinds of conditions that create opportunities where professional money accumulates and adds to positions.

Let’s take a look at three altcoins that could be positioned for a rebound if the broader market enters a new uptrend.

ADA could be setting up for an 80% surge

Cardano (ADA) has a significantly bullish update coming very soon. The much anticipated Vasil hard fork, which increases performance and adds more Plutus enhancements, is planned for June.

From a price action perspective, ADA is positioned in a strong price range that will likely support any further upside that the broader market experienced. Within the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo system, ADA has maintained a significant gap between the bodies of the past three weekly candlesticks and the Tenkan-Sen.

When the bodies of the candlesticks and the Tenkan-Sen have noticeable gaps, a correction often occurs within three to four days. This is because the equilibrium is out of sync, the Tenkan-Sen and price action like to stick together as much as possible. A mean reversion back to the Tenkan-sen is extremely likely when one strays too far from the other.

ADA/USD weekly Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart Source: TradingView

However, if the broader cryptocurrency market experiences a big bounce, ADA price may shoot past the Tenkan-Sen to test the Kijun-Sen. ADA has not tested the weekly Kijun-Sen since the week of November 8, 2021.

The weekly Kijun-Sen is at $1.02 and contains the 2021 volume point of control and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the all-time high to the low of January 25, 2021.

ADA/USD weekly chart (Binance) Source: TradingView

MATIC aims for $1

Looking at the weekly chart of Polygon (MATIC), one can’t help but notice that it looks strikingly similar to ADA. MATIC and ADA both have sold off from $3 and both are stuck in the mid $0.50 to mid $0.60 price range, but that is where the similarities mostly end.

Fundamentally, MATIC remains strong. Governments worldwide have attempted to restrict or ban mining due to excessive energy costs for proof-of-work blockchains and MATIC is likely to avoid government scrutiny and attract supporters as a positive example of environmental stewardship.

Like ADA, MATIC has significant gaps between the bodies of its weekly candlesticks and the Tenkan-Sen. Although, MATIC’s gaps are more significant. Likewise, the gap between price and the Kijun-Sen is much more meaningful.

Within the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo system, there is a max-mean that price will travel away from the Kijun-Sen before experiencing a violent mean reversion. For MATIC, that threshold is 63%.

MATIC/USD weekly chart (Binance) Source: TradingView

Any renewed bullish momentum ifor Bitcoin will likely see MATIC lead the altcoins higher until it reaches the $1.00 to $1.15 value area near the weekly Tenkan-Sen.

XLM lags the altcoin market, but it’s known for surprises

Sometimes it is hard to forget that during the last major bull run from the COVID crash to November 2021, there were a few major altcoins that did not hit new all-time highs. Stellar (XLM) is one. In fact, the last time XLM made a new all-time high was the week of January 8, 2018, almost four and a half years ago!

One thing that XLM has going for it that not many other weekly charts have is a very clear falling wedge pattern. Out of the standard rectangle and triangle patterns in technical analysis, wedge patterns are the most powerful. What makes its wedge so powerful is the probable fakeout breakout lower.

XLM/USD weekly chart (Binance) Source: TradingView

The most probable direction for a falling wedge is higher — but breakouts below a falling wedge can yield powerful short opportunities. The typical behavior that analysts and traders expect to see with a failed falling wedge is an immediate and swift sell-off, but so far, bears have been unable or unwilling to do so.

Instead, the weekly chart for XLM shows a very strong probability of a fakeout. If bullish momentum returns to the cryptocurrency market, XLM is likely to hit the second peak of the falling wedge near the $0.38 value area.

Classic technical analysts believe that technicals lead fundamentals. If that is true, then altcoins like XLM, MATIC, and ADA could be positioned in very desirable conditions in the event of any new bull run.

However, downside risks remain a concern, but they are likely extremely limited. If a new uptrend fails to materialize before the end of June, the cryptocurrency market will probably move sideways until a major breakout higher or lower occurs in the Fall.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.