S&P 500

Post-midterm elections dump? Bitcoin will see $12K if this 2018 BTC chart fractal is correct

Bitcoin accumulation during the 2022 bear market looks stronger than in 2018, but macro headwinds could spoil the party this time around.

While Bitcoin (BTC) investors may not consider the United States midterm elections a significant event, an eerie fractal from 2018 may provide a clue to what could happen before the year ends.

Bitcoin to hit $12K–$14K after midterms?

Comparing Bitcoin’s price actions prior to the midterm elections of 2018 with those of 2022 shows a strikingly similar bear market trend.

For instance, BTC price trended lower in 2018 while holding a horizontal level near $6,000 as support, only to break below it after the midterm elections.

*BTC/USD daily price chart featuring 2018 trend. Source: TradingView/Aditya Siddhartha Roy*

In 2022, the cryptocurrency has halfway mirrored this trend. Its price now awaits a close below the current horizontal support level of around $19,000. With the midterm elections scheduled for Nov. 8, the said breakdown scenario could occur sooner or later, as illustrated below.

*BTC/USD daily price chart featuring 2022 trend. Source: TradingView/Aditya Siddhartha Roy*

Independent market analyst Aditya Siddhartha Roy thinks Bitcoin’s price will fall into the $12,000-$14,000 range if a similar breakdown occurs. He further notes that the cryptocurrency could bottom out in November or December 2022, just like in 2018.

$BTC Bottom Analysis

Comparing to 2018 & 2022 Bear market

•Support Getting Weak – TrendLine Manipulation – Midterm Elections – Post Midterm Elections Dump – #BTC Bottom
•Nov-Dec could be bottom for #Bitcoin

•Retweet Appreciated #cryptocurrency #Crypto #ETH $ETH #Binance pic.twitter.com/GHDiHu4H3H

— Aditya Siddhartha Roy❁ (@Adityaroypspk) October 16, 2022

Stock market warnings for Bitcoin

The bearish prediction surfaces as Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. equities grows stronger in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies. Both markets have witnessed sharp drawdowns in the period of the U.S. central bank’s rate hikes in 2022.

Historically, in 17 of the 19 midterms since 1946, the stock market has performed better in the six months after an election than in the six months following it.

*S&P 500 average performance in U.S. midterm election years. Source: Charles Schwab*

That is primarily due to the market’s expectations of higher government spending from a new Congress, notes Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab’s chief investment strategist, who further argues that 2022 could yield a different outcome.

“An additional infusion of funds seems unlikely this year, given the government’s historic levels of spending and stimulus in response to the pandemic,” she explains, adding:

“The combination of high inflation, the war in Ukraine, and a lingering pandemic has already made this cycle, unlike prior midterm years. With so many other forces at play in the market, I wouldn’t put much weight in historical midterm-year performance.”

*U.S. money supply remains above $21 trillion. Source: FRED*

As a result, Bitcoin remains at risk of tailing U.S. stocks lower, with the $12,000–$14,000 price target in view.

Optimistic BTC price indicators

However, a section of the crypto market sees Bitcoin decoupling from traditional markets, suggesting that the cryptocurrency may not tail S&P 500 into a post-midterm election crash.

“At some point, the market will be controlled by those in the community that is long-term believers in BTC and very unlikely to sell and the growing global community which uses BTC for commerce,” Stephane Ouellette, chief executive of FRNT Financial Inc., told Bloomberg.

Ouellette’s statement came after the daily correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and S&P 500 dropped to 0.08 on Oct. 9, the lowest in four months.

*BTC/USD and SPX daily correlation coefficient in recent days. Source: TradingView*

Meanwhile, the number of unique addresses holding at least 1 BTC reached a new record high on Oct. 17, contrary to trends witnessed during the 2018 bear market. This suggests investors have been accumulating Bitcoin at local price dips.

*Number of Bitcoin addresses holding at least 1 BTC. Source: Glassnode*

“The on-chain data suggests those holders are optimistic the market will bounce back, keeping market fundamentals relatively healthy,” according to a note from crypto exchange Bitfinex.

Market analyst Wolf offered a similar outlook, citing Bitcoin’s extremely oversold relative strength index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators on weekly charts in 2022, which technically hints at a period of accumulation ahead.

Comparing current structure with 2018 before capitulation is, imo, complete non sense
Just by looking at the weekly RSI and MACD differences are notable.
In 2018 RSI was floating at a mid range of 45s, in 2022 RSI has hit its lowest level ever. $BTC pic.twitter.com/3Zyp9DDPA6

— Wolf (@IamCryptoWolf) October 17, 2022

In comparison, these oscillators were in the neutral zone prior to the 2018 midterm election, meaning BTC’s price had more room to decline.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Price analysis 10/14: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, MATIC

Buyers could not build upon the strong recovery of Oct. 13, indicating that higher levels continue to attract selling in the U.S. equities markets and Bitcoin.

The United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 8.2% annually in September, beating economists’ expectations of an 8.1% rise. The CPI print lived up to its hype and caused a sharp, but short-term increase in volatile risk assets.

The S&P 500 oscillated inside its widest trading range since 2020 and Bitcoin (BTC) also witnessed a large intraday range of more than $1,323 on Oct. 13. However, Bitcoin still could not shake out of the $18,125 to $20,500 range in which it has been for the past several days.

*Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source:* *Coin360*

Both the U.S. equities markets and Bitcoin tried to extend their recovery on Oct. 14 but the higher levels attracted selling, indicating that the bears have not yet given up.

Could the increased volatility culminate with a breakout to the upside or will it start the next leg of the downtrend?

Let’s study the charts of the S&P 500 index, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) and the major cryptocurrencies to find out.

SPX

The S&P 500 index (SPX) gapped down on Oct. 13 and dropped to $3,491 but lower levels attracted huge buying by the bulls. That may have caught several aggressive bears on the wrong paw and they might have scrambled to cover their short positions. That propelled the index back above the breakdown level of $3,636.

Buyers tried to extend the recovery on Oct. 14, but the bears had other plans. The sellers vigorously defended the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($3,715), indicating that the sentiment remains negative and relief rallies are being sold into.

The bears will try to sink the index to $3,491, which is an important level to keep an eye on. If this support cracks, the index could dive to $3,325.

Alternatively, if the index rebounds off the support zone between $3,636 and $3,491, it will suggest that bulls may be accumulating on dips. Buyers will then attempt to overcome the barrier at the 20-day EMA and challenge the downtrend line. If this resistance collapses, it will signal that the corrective phase may be over.

DXY

The U.S. dollar index turned down from $113.92 on Oct. 13 but the bulls arrested the decline at the 20-day EMA (112). This suggests that the sentiment remains positive and traders are viewing the dips as a buying opportunity.

The bulls will try to pierce the overhead resistance zone between $113.92 and $114.77. An acceptance above this zone will signal the resumption of the uptrend. The index could then rally to $117.14.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the overhead resistance, the bears will try to pull the index below the 20-day EMA. A break below this support will be the first indication that the bullish momentum is weakening.

The index could then decline to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) (109). A trend change will be signaled if bears sink the price below the uptrend line.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin sliced through the support at $18,843 on Oct. 13 and dipped close to $18,125. This level attracted buying, which started a sharp recovery as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick.

Buyers pushed the price above the moving averages on Oct. 14 but the up-move is facing stiff resistance at the downtrend line. The 20-day EMA ($19,466) is flattening out and the relative strength index (RSI) is near the midpoint, indicating equilibrium between buyers and sellers.

This balance will tilt in favor of the bulls if they push and sustain the price above the overhead resistance at $20,500. The BTC/USDT pair could then rally to $22,800. The bears are expected to mount a stiff resistance at this level.

If the price sustains below the 20-day EMA, the bears will again try to pull the pair below $18,843 and challenge the support at $18,125.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) broke below the support at $1,220 on Oct. 13 but the bears could not keep the price down. The bulls vigorously purchased the dip, forming a hammer candlestick pattern.

Buyers have sustained the positive momentum on Oct. 14 and are trying to push the price above the overhead zone between the 20-day EMA ($1,331) and the resistance line of the triangle.

If they can pull it off, the ETH/USDT pair could attempt a rally to the downtrend line of the descending channel pattern. The bulls will have to clear this obstacle to signal a potential trend change.

The bears are likely to have other plans. They will attempt to halt the recovery in the overhead zone and then try to pull the pair below $1,190.

BNB/USDT

BNB has been range-bound between $300 and $258 for the past several days. In a range, traders usually buy near the support and sell close to the resistance.

That is what happened on Oct. 13 as the bulls purchased the dip to $258. Buyers tried to push the price above the moving averages on Oct. 14 but the long wick on the candlestick shows that bears are selling near resistance levels. The bears will again try to pull the price below $258 and extend the decline to $216.

On the contrary, if the price turns up and breaks above the moving averages, the BNB/USDT pair could attempt a rally to the overhead resistance at $300. A break above this level could set the stage for a rally to $338.

XRP/USDT

XRP (XRP) broke below the 20-day EMA ($0.47) on Oct. 13 but the bears could not sustain the lower levels. The bulls purchased the dip and pushed the price back above the 20-day EMA.

Both moving averages are sloping up and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating advantage to buyers. The bulls will attempt to push the price above the overhead resistance at $0.56. If that happens, the XRP/USDT pair could resume its uptrend and rally toward the next overhead resistance at $0.66.

The first sign of weakness will be a break and close below the 20-day EMA. That would indicate that traders may be booking profits at higher levels. The pair could then slide to the breakout level of $0.41.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) found buying support at $0.35 on Oct. 13 but the bulls are struggling to push the price above the breakdown level of $0.40 on Oct. 14.

The 20-day EMA ($0.41) continues to slope down and the RSI is in the oversold territory, indicating that bears are in control. If the price continues lower and breaks below $0.35, it will suggest that bears have flipped $0.40 into resistance. That could increase the likelihood of a drop to $0.33.

This bearish view could be negated in the near term if buyers push the price above the moving averages. That will indicate strong accumulation at lower levels. The ADA/USDT pair could then climb to the downtrend line.

SOL/USDT

Solana (SOL) plunged below the $30 support on Oct. 13 but the bears could not build upon this strength and sink the price to the vital support at $26. The bulls arrested the drop at $27.87 and pushed the price back above $30.

Buyers tried to extend the positive momentum on Oct. 14 but ran into heavy selling near the downtrend line as seen from the long wick on the candlestick. The bears will now again try to pull the price below $30 and extend the decline to $26.

If bulls want to invalidate this bearish view, they will have to quickly push the SOL/USDT pair above the downtrend line. That could clear the path for a possible rally to $35.50 and thereafter to $39 where the bears may again offer a strong resistance.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) rebounded off the strong support near $0.06 on Oct. 13, indicating that the bulls are defending the level aggressively. Buyers are trying to propel the price above the moving averages on Oct. 14.

If they manage to do that, the DOGE/USDT pair could rise to $0.07. This level is again likely to act as a strong resistance but if bulls push the price above it, the pair could attempt a rally to the overhead level of $0.09.

Contrarily, if the price turns down from the moving averages, the bears will again attempt to sink the price below the support near $0.06. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because if it cracks, the pair could retest the June low near $0.05.

MATIC/USDT

The long tail on Polygon’s (MATIC) Oct. 13 candlestick shows that bulls are aggressively buying near the $0.71 to $0.69 support zone. Buyers continued their momentum on Oct. 14 and tried to push the price above the downtrend line but the bears held their ground.

The flattish moving averages and the RSI near the midpoint suggest a balance between supply and demand. This equilibrium could tilt in favor of the buyers if the price rises above the downtrend line. The MATIC/USDT pair could then rise to $0.86 and if this level is crossed, the next stop could be $0.94.

On the other hand, if the price reverses direction from the downtrend line, it will show that bears continue to sell on rallies. The pair could then remain stuck between the downtrend line and the support at $0.69.

Price analysis 10/7: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, MATIC

Markets corrected as U.S. jobs data reflected a stubbornly robust labor market, adding further confirmation to investors’ belief that the Federal Reserve will continue with its aggressive rate hikes.

The United States nonfarm payrolls increased by 263,000 in September, marginally below the Dow Jones estimate of 275,000, but the unemployment rate dropped to 3.5% compared to the forecast of 3.7%.

Some analysts believe the report shows that the jobs market remains strong in spite of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to slow down the economy and that could encourage the Fed to go ahead with another aggressive rate hike in its next meeting in November. This led to a sharp fall in the U.S. equities markets on Oct. 7.

Although Bitcoin (BTC) has traded in close correlation with the U.S. equities markets for most of 2022, it could change in the second half of the year and Bitcoin could “shift toward becoming a risk-off asset, like gold and US Treasury’s,” said Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone in the Oct. 5 Bloomberg Crypto Outlook report.

Let’s study the charts of the S&P 500 index, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) and the major cryptocurrencies to determine the short-term price outlook.

SPX

The S&P 500 index (SPX) plunged and closed below the June low of $3,636 on Sept. 30, but the bears could not sustain the lower levels. Buyers aggressively purchased the dip and pushed the price back above the breakdown level of $3,636 on Oct. 3. This may have caught the aggressive bears off-guard resulting in a short squeeze, which pushed the price to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($3,779) on Oct. 4.

In a bear market, experienced traders continue to sell on rallies and that is what happened with the index. The bears stalled the recovery at the 20-day EMA and the price turned down sharply on Oct. 7.

The zone between $3,636 and $3,584 is vital for the bulls to defend because a break and close below it could signal the resumption of the downtrend. The index could then decline to $3,500 and thereafter to $3,325.

Conversely, if the price rebounds off the support zone, it will suggest accumulation by the bulls at lower levels. Buyers will then again try to push the price above the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, the index could rise to the downtrend line.

The bulls will have to overcome this barrier to indicate that the short-term corrective phase may be over. The index could then start a rally to $4,100.

DXY

The U.S. dollar index remains in a strong uptrend. The sellers pulled the price below the 20-day EMA (111) on Oct. 4 but could not sustain the lower levels. Aggressive buying on dips pushed the price back above the 20-day EMA on Oct. 5.

The bears are trying to stall the up-move in the zone between the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $112.41 and the 61.8% retracement level of $112.96. If the price turns down sharply from this zone, it will suggest that traders are selling on rallies. That could again pull the price to the 20-day EMA and then to $110.05.

If the support at $110.05 gives way, it will suggest that the short-term bullish momentum has weakened. The price could then drop to the uptrend line. A close below this support could indicate that the index may have topped out.

Instead, if bulls drive the price above $112.96, the index could retest the multi-year high at $114.77. A break above this resistance could suggest the resumption of the uptrend. The next target on the upside is $117.14.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin’s relief rally is facing strong resistance in the zone between the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($20,019) and the downtrend line. This shows that bears are selling on rallies and will try to pull the price to $18,626.

The repeated retest of a support level tends to weaken it. If bears sink the price below the strong support at $18,626, the BTC/USDT pair may witness panic selling. That could open the doors for a possible retest of the June low at $17,622.

To invalidate this bearish view, the bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the downtrend line. If that happens, the bullish momentum could pick up and the pair could rally to $22,799. The bears may pose a strong challenge at this level.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) has been trading near the 20-day EMA ($1,364) since Oct. 4. The bears are defending the level but a positive sign is that the bulls have not given up much ground. This suggests that buyers expect the recovery to extend further.

If buyers thrust the price above the 20-day EMA and the horizontal resistance at $1,410, the ETH/USDT pair could rally to the resistance line of the descending channel. This level may attract strong selling by the bears.

If the price turns down sharply from the resistance line, it will suggest that the pair may extend its stay inside the channel for a few more days.

The bullish momentum may pick up after bulls propel the price above the channel. Alternatively, the selling could intensify if bears sink the price below the $1,220 support.

BNB/USDT

BNB broke above the moving averages on Oct. 3 but the bulls could not push the price above the next hurdle at $300. This suggests that bears are active at higher levels.

If the price sustains below the moving averages, it will suggest that the BNB/USDT pair could remain stuck between $258 and $300 for some more time. The flattening 20-day EMA ($283) and the relative strength index (RSI) near the midpoint hint at a consolidation in the near term.

Alternatively, if the price rebounds off the current level, the bulls will again attempt to force the price above the overhead resistance zone between $300 and $308. If they manage to do that, the pair could rally to the stiff overhead resistance at $338.

XRP/USDT

XRP has been attempting to clear the first overhead hurdle near $0.51 and retest the intraday high of $0.56 made on Sept. 23. This is the critical level to watch on the upside because a break above it could signal the resumption of the uptrend.

The upsloping moving averages and the RSI in the positive territory indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If buyers push the price above $0.56, the XRP/USDT pair could further pick up momentum and rally to $0.66.

On the contrary, if the price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance at $0.56, the bears will attempt to pull the pair to the 20-day EMA. A strong rebound off this level could keep the advantage in favor of the buyers but a break below this support could pull the pair to $0.41.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) broke below the uptrend line on Sept. 30 and the bears successfully defended the level during the retest from Oct. 4–6. This suggests that bears have flipped the uptrend line into resistance.

The bears will attempt to challenge the crucial support at $0.40. If this support breaks down, the selling could pick up momentum and the ADA/USDT pair could start the next leg of the downtrend. The pair could then decline to $0.35.

If bulls want to avoid another leg down, they will have to quickly push the price above the moving averages. If that happens, the pair could climb to the downtrend line. Buyers will have to surpass this obstacle to suggest a potential trend change.

SOL/USDT

Solana (SOL) rose above the moving averages on Oct. 4 but the bulls could not build upon this strength. This suggests that bears continue to view rallies as a selling opportunity.

The 20-day EMA ($33.17) is flat and the RSI is near the midpoint, suggesting a balance between supply and demand. If the price sustains below the moving averages, the SOL/USDT pair could decline to $31.65. If the price rebounds off the support with strength, it will suggest the range-bound action may continue for a few more days.

Buyers will have to push the price above the overhead resistance at $35.50 to clear the path for a possible rally to $39. On the other hand, if the price slips below $31.65, the pair could retest the important support at $30.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) soared above the moving averages on Oct. 4 but the bulls could not extend the momentum. The price turned down from $0.07 and has reached the moving averages.

If the price rebounds off the moving averages with strength, it will suggest that the bulls are attempting to form a higher low. The buyers will then try to push the price above $0.07 and seize the advantage in the near term. As there is no major resistance between $0.07 and $0.09, the DOGE/USDT pair may cover this journey quickly.

In contrast, if the price breaks below the moving averages, the bears will again try to sink the pair below the support near $0.06. The break below this support may pull the pair to the June low near $0.05.

MATIC/USDT

Polygon (MATIC) ascended above the moving averages on Oct. 4 and reached the downtrend line on Oct. 5. The bears are trying to stall the recovery at the downtrend line but a minor positive is that the bulls have not ceded ground to the sellers.

The 20-day EMA ($0.80) is gradually sloping up and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating that bulls have the upper hand. This improves the prospects of a break above the downtrend line. If that happens, the MATIC/USDT pair could rise to $0.94 and thereafter to $1.05.

This positive view could invalidate in the near term if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA. The pair could then decline to the strong support at $0.69. The bears will have to pull the price below this level to gain the upper hand.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

Bitcoin and gold face headwinds amid strengthening dollar

Bitcoin decoupled with the stock market and saw its correlation with gold rise to a level not seen since last year.

Bitcoin (BTC) and gold are no longer investors’ primary choices as inflation hedges amid the strengthening United States dollar. The current turmoil in financial markets added to the geopolitical tensions has run havoc on the majority of the assets that investors prefer to invest in during times of financial crisis.

Bitcoin has lost nearly 70% of its market cap since the market top last year while gold, which strengthened its position in the first quarter of the year despite the Russia-Ukraine crisis, is currently down by 10% year-to-date.

The negative market condition has forced BTC to shed its correlation with tech stocks, while at the same time, the top cryptocurrency’s correlation with the precious metal has reached levels not seen in over a year.

The correlation between Bitcoin and gold over the past year has largely fluctuated between -0.2 and +0.2. However, the correlation between the two assets reached +0.3 last week, the highest in one year.

*Bitcoin’s correlation with gold Source: Kaiko Research*

A correlation reading of +0.3 is considered slightly positive, while a value of +0.7 is regarded as a strong correlation. Thus, even though the BTC-gold correlation has reached a yearly high, it still has not reached a significant level where the price momentums mimic each other.

Apart from Bitcoin and gold, United States Treasury bonds and other stocks have also faced a similar fate. Experts believe the strengthening dollar added to the ongoing market conditions has forced investors to look beyond safe haven assets.

Karim Dandashy, portfolio manager at digital assets investment platform StableHouse, told Cointelegraph:

“Obviously, it’s not been a great year for Bitcoin. Nor has it for traditional risk-off assets like gold and U.S. [Treasury bonds]. The charts say it all, the dollar has been the winner. This is ironic as investors would seek refuge in yield or growth assets, but the risk of recession and attempted QT have driven investors to hoard dollars.”

Bitcoin might be struggling to keep up with the inflation hedge narrative, however, it is important to note that BTC is still a nascent asset class when compared to others. The top cryptocurrency is still among the best-performing assets over the past five years.

Price analysis 9/30: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT

Equities markets have extended their decline, but Bitcoin and select altcoins have not given up much ground, leading some traders to believe that the bottom is in.

The United States equities markets have been under a firm bear grip for a large part of the year. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite have declined for three quarters in a row, a first since 2009. There was no respite in selling in September and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is on track to record its worst September since 2002. These figures outline the kind of carnage that exists in the equities market.

Compared to these disappointing figures, Bitcoin (BTC) and select altcoins have not given up much ground in September. This is the first sign that selling could be drying up at lower levels and long-term investors may have started bottom fishing.

In the final quarter of the year, investors will continue to focus on the inflation data. Any indication of inflation topping could bring about a sharp recovery in risk assets, but if inflation remains stubbornly high, then a round of sell-offs could follow.

Let’s study the charts of the S&P 500 index, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) and the major cryptocurrencies to determine if a recovery is on the cards.

SPX

The S&P 500 index (SPX) has been under intense selling pressure for the past few days but the bulls have held their ground. This indicates that bulls are buying the dips near $3,636.

The first resistance on the upside is $3,737. If bulls thrust the price above this level, the index could rise to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($3,818). In a downtrend, this is the important level to keep an eye on because a break and close above it will suggest that the bears may be losing their grip.

Sharp declines are usually followed by strong rallies. That could carry the index to the downtrend line and then to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($4,012).

The bears are likely to have other plans. They will try to extend the downtrend by sinking and sustaining the price below $3,636. If they manage to do that, the index could plummet to $3,500 and later to $3,325.

DXY

The U.S. dollar index surged to $114.77 on Sept. 28, which pushed the relative strength index (RSI) into deeply overbought territory. This may have attracted profit-booking by the short-term traders that pulled the price near the 20-day EMA (111).

The bears will have to yank the price below the 20-day EMA to suggest that the bullish momentum could be weakening. That could clear the path for a possible drop to the 50-day SMA (108).

The zone between the 50-day SMA and the uptrend line is likely to witness aggressive buying by the bulls because if they fail to defend the zone, it will indicate that the index may have topped out.

On the other hand, if the price turns up from the current level or rebounds off the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the bulls continue to buy on dips. Buyers will then again attempt to thrust the price above $114.77 and resume the uptrend. The next target objective on the upside is $118.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin bounced off the strong support at $18,626 on Sept. 28, indicating that the bulls continue to fiercely defend this level. The long tail on the candlestick of the past two days shows that bulls are buying the intraday dips.

The bulls pushed the price above the 20-day EMA ($19,602) on Sept. 30 but are struggling to sustain the higher levels. This shows that bears are selling near the 50-day SMA ($20,621).

If bulls do not allow the price to drop below the 20-day EMA, the likelihood of a rally to the downtrend line increases. The bears are expected to mount a strong resistance at this level but if bulls clear this hurdle, the BTC/USDT pair could signal a short-term trend change. The pair could then rise to $22,799.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the current level or the 50-day SMA ($20,625), the pair could again drop to the $18,626 to $17,622 support zone.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) has been declining in a descending channel pattern for the past several days. In the short term, the price has been stuck between $1,250 and $1,410, indicating demand at lower levels but selling near the resistance.

The price action inside the range is usually random and volatile. Hence, it is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout with certainty.

If the price breaks above $1,410, it will suggest that the bulls have absorbed the supply. That could propel the price to the resistance line of the channel. The bulls will have to overcome this barrier to suggest a potential trend change.

On the other hand, if the price turns down and breaks below $1,250, the bears will attempt to cement their advantage by pulling the ETH/USDT pair below the channel. If they succeed, the pair could drop to $1,000.

BNB/USDT

BNB turned up sharply from $266 and broke above the 20-day EMA ($278) on Sept. 28. This indicates that lower levels are attracting strong buying by the bulls.

The bulls pushed the price above the resistance line of the descending channel on Sept. 29 but are facing resistance at the 50-day SMA ($288). If bulls do not allow the price to plummet back below the 20-day EMA, it will improve the prospects of a break above the 50-day SMA. The BNB/USDT pair could then rally to $300 and later to $338.

On the contrary, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears continue to sell at higher levels. The pair could then decline to the strong support at $258.

XRP/USDT

XRP rebounded off the 20-day EMA ($0.43) on Sept. 28, indicating a change in sentiment from selling on rallies to buying on dips. However, the bears are unlikely to give up as they will try to stall the recovery in the $0.52 to $0.56 zone.

If buyers do not give up much ground from the current level, the possibility of a break above the overhead zone increases. A break above $0.56 will signal the resumption of the uptrend. The XRP/USDT pair could then rise to $0.66.

Conversely, if the price continues lower, the pair could drop to the breakout level of $0.41. The bulls are likely to defend this level vigorously. If the price rebounds off this level, the pair may enter a range-bound action for a few days.

ADA/USDT

The long tail on Cardano’s (ADA) Sept. 28 and 29 candlestick shows that the bulls bought at lower levels in an attempt to defend the uptrend line. Although the price rose above the uptrend line on Sept. 29, buyers could not sustain the recovery.

The price has again tumbled below the uptrend line on Sept. 30. The downsloping moving averages and the RSI in the negative territory suggest that the path of least resistance is to the downside. If the price breaks below $0.42, the ADA/USDT pair could decline to the crucial support at $0.40. The bulls are expected to defend this level with vigor.

Contrarily, if the price turns up from the current level and closes above the uptrend line, it will suggest strong buying at lower levels. The bulls will then again try to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.45) and challenge the resistance at the 50-day SMA ($0.47).

SOL/USDT

Buyers are attempting to form a higher low in Solana (SOL). The price rebounded off $31.65 on Sept. 28 and reached the 50-day SMA ($34.70) on Sept. 30.

The 20-day EMA ($33.30) is trying to turn up and the RSI is just above the midpoint, suggesting that the bulls are attempting a comeback. If the price breaks and sustains above the 50-day SMA, the bullish momentum could pick up and the SOL/USDT pair could rally to $39. The bears are expected to mount a strong resistance at this level.

Alternatively, if the price turns down from the 50-day SMA, the pair could drop to $31.65. A break below this support could sink the pair to $30.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) dipped below the 20-day EMA ($0.06) on Sept. 25 and the bears thwarted attempts by the bulls to resume the recovery on Sept. 27.

The 20-day EMA is flattish and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. This balance could tilt in favor of the bears if they sink the price below the support near $0.06. The price could then plunge to $0.05.

The bulls will gain the upper hand if they drive and sustain the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.06). The DOGE/USDT pair could then attempt a rally to $0.07 where the bears may again mount a stiff resistance.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) has been trading in a tight range between $6 and $6.64 for the past few days. This indicates a tough battle between the bulls and the bears.

The gradually downsloping moving averages and the RSI in the negative territory suggest that bears have a slight edge. If the price drops below $6, the DOT/USDT pair could start the next leg of the downtrend. The pair could then slide to $4.

To invalidate this negative bias, bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA ($6.64). If they do that, it will suggest that the consolidation near the support may have been an accumulation phase. The pair could then rise to the 50-day SMA ($7.26) and later to $8.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

Price analysis 9/23: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT

The strength of the U.S. dollar continues to negatively impact risk assets, but that did not prevent Bitcoin and select altcoins from staging a few strong rallies this week.

The S&P 500 index has declined about 5% this week while the Nasdaq Composite is down more than 5.5%. Investors fear that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes could cause an economic downturn. The yield curve between the two-year and 10-year Treasury notes, which is watched closely by analysts for predicting a recession, has inverted the most since the year 2000.

Among all the mayhem, it is encouraging to see that Bitcoin (BTC) has outperformed both the major indexes and has fallen less than 4% in the week. Could this be a sign that Bitcoin’s bottom may be close by?

On-chain data shows that the amount of Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders in losses reached about 30%, which is 2% to 5% below the level that coincided with Bitcoin’s bottom in March 2020 and December 2018. This metric suggests that Bitcoin could have more room to fall before it bottoms out.

Let’s study the charts of the S&P 500 index, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) and the major cryptocurrencies to determine whether the trend will continue or if a reversal is likely.

SPX

The S&P 500 index (SPX) broke below the 3,900 support on Sept. 16 and the bears successfully defended the level on retests on Sept. 17 and 21. Hence, this becomes an important level to keep an eye on as a break above 3,900 will be the first sign that bulls are on a comeback.

The downsloping 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) (3,920) indicates an advantage to bears but the relative strength index (RSI) in the oversold territory suggests that the index may attempt a rebound from the strong support zone between 3,715 and 3,636.

A weak rebound off this zone will indicate a lack of aggressive buying by the bulls. That could increase the possibility of a decline below the crucial June low at 3,636. If this support collapses, the index could plunge toward 3,325.

On the contrary, a strong rebound off the support zone could result in a recovery to 3,900. A break above this resistance could signal a potential trend change in the near term.

DXY

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has been in a strong uptrend for the past few months. Every dip is being purchased aggressively and the index continues to scale new heights. Attempts by the bears to force a trend change failed when the price rebounded off the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($108) on Sept. 13.

After staying in a tight range for a few days, the index broke out to a new 52-week high on Sept. 21. This resumed the uptrend and the index could next attempt a rally to 115.

The sharp rally of the past few days has pushed the RSI into the overbought zone, which suggests a minor consolidation or correction is possible in the next few days.

The 20-day EMA (109) is an important support to watch for on the downside because a break below it could sink the price to the 50-day SMA. The bears will have to pull the price below 107 to indicate a possible trend change in the near term.

BTC/USDT

Buyers have been buying the dip below $18,626 in Bitcoin but the failure to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($19,841) shows that bears are in no mood to let go of their advantage. This increases the possibility of a retest of the vital June low at $17,622.

A break and close below $17,622 could create panic and the BTC/USDT pair may plummet to the next major support at $14,500.

While the downsloping moving averages indicate advantage to bears, the positive divergence on the RSI suggests that the selling pressure could be reducing. This view could strengthen if bulls drive and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA.

That could push the price toward the overhead resistance zone between the 50-day SMA (21,200) and $22,799. Such a move will suggest that the pair may continue its bottoming formation inside the large range between $17,622 and $25,211 for longer.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) has been trading inside a descending channel pattern for the past few days. In a channel, traders usually buy near the support and sell close to the resistance.

The bears tried to sink the price below the channel on Sept. 21 but the bulls defended the level successfully. The bulls will try to push the price to the 20-day EMA ($1,467) where they may face stiff resistance from the bears.

If the price turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on every minor rally. The bears will then again try to pull the price below the channel and challenge the psychological support at $1,000.

Contrarily, if the price rises above the 20-day EMA, the pair could reach the resistance line of the channel. A break and close above the channel could suggest a potential trend change.

BNB/USDT

BNB has been oscillating between the 20-day EMA ($276) and $258 for the past few days. This shows that the bulls are defending the immediate support at $258 but they have failed to push the price above the 20-day EMA.

This tight-range trading is unlikely to continue for long. If buyers propel the price above the 20-day EMA, the BNB/USDT pair could rise to the resistance line of the descending channel. The bulls will have to overcome this obstacle to suggest that the corrective phase may be over. The pair could then attempt a rally to $338.

If the price turns down from the current level or the resistance line of the channel, the bears will again try to sink the pair below $258. If they manage to do that, the pair could decline to the support line.

XRP/USDT

XRP broke above the $0.41 overhead resistance on Sept. 20. The bears tried to trap the aggressive bulls on Sept. 21 but the buyers had other plans. They purchased the dip with vigor and thrust the price above the overhead resistance on Sept. 22.

The pattern target of the break from the $0.30 to $0.41 range was $0.52 and the same was reached on Sept. 23. This sharp move pushed the RSI into the overbought territory, suggesting a minor correction or consolidation in the near term. The long wick on the Sept. 23 candlestick shows profit-booking at higher levels.

Usually, after the breakout from a range, the price tends to retest the breakout level. In this case, the price could drop to $0.41. If bulls flip this level into support, the XRP/USDT will try to resume the up-move. If the price rises above $0.56, the next stop could be $0.66. On the other hand, a break below $0.41 could suggest that the recent breakout was a bear trap.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) bounced off the uptrend line on Sept. 22, indicating that bulls are defending this level with vigor. The price reached near the downtrend line on Sept. 23 but the long wick on the candlestick shows that bears are active at higher levels.

The 20-day EMA ($0.46) has started to turn down and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating a minor advantage to bears. If the price continues lower and plummets below the uptrend line, the ADA/USDT pair could drop to $0.40. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because a break below it could resume the downtrend.

If bulls want to gain the upper hand, they will have to drive and sustain the price above the downtrend line. The pair could then rise to $0.60 where the bears may again mount a stiff resistance.

SOL/USDT

Solana (SOL) has been getting squeezed between the 20-day EMA ($33) and the immediate support at $30. This indicates a state of equilibrium between buyers and sellers.

This uncertainty is unlikely to continue for long. The bears will try to seize control by pulling the price below $30. If that happens, the SOL/USDT pair could drop to the strong support at $26. The bulls are expected to defend this level aggressively because if this support cracks, the SOL/USDT pair could witness panic selling and drop toward $20.

To invalidate this negative view in the short term, buyers will have to drive the price above the moving averages and the overhead resistance at $39. If they succeed, the pair could rally to $48.

DOGE/USDT

Buyers bought the dip below the immediate support on Sept. 21 but they are struggling to sustain Dogecoin (DOGE) above the 20-day EMA ($0.06) on Sept. 23. This suggests that bears continue to sell on rallies.

The bears will attempt to increase their advantage by sinking the price below the immediate support near $0.06. If they do that, the DOGE/USDT pair could extend its decline to the June low at $0.05. This is a pivotal level because a break below it could indicate the start of the next leg of the downtrend.

Conversely, if the price sustains above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($0.07). If bulls pierce this resistance, the pair could rally toward $0.09.

DOT/USDT

Buyers successfully defended the critical support of $6 on Sept. 21 and 22 but the shallow bounce suggests that demand dries up at higher levels. The longer Polkadot (DOT) trades below the 20-day EMA (6.87), the greater the possibility of a break below $6.

If bears sink and sustain the price below $6, the selling momentum could pick up and the DOT/USDT pair could resume its downtrend. The next major support on the downside is at $4.

Alternatively, if the price rebounds off $6 or turns up sharply after breaking below the support, it will suggest that bulls continue to buy at lower levels. The bulls will have to propel the price above the moving averages to clear the path for a possible up-move to $10, which, again, is likely to act as a barrier.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

Price analysis 9/16: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT

Equities markets are witnessing aggressive selling due to increasingly bearish macroeconomic factors, and this is adding sell pressure to Bitcoin and altcoin prices.

The World Bank has warned of a possible global recession in 2023. In a press release on Sept. 15, the bank said that the current pace of rate hikes and policy decisions is unlikely to be enough to bring inflation down to pre-pandemic levels.

Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates said in a blog post on Sept. 13 that if rates were to rise to about 4.5% in the United States, it would “produce about a 20 percent negative impact on equity prices.”

The negative outlook for the equity markets does not bode well for the cryptocurrency markets as both have been closely correlated in 2022.

The macroeconomic developments seem to be worrying cryptocurrency investors who sent 236,000 Bitcoin (BTC) to major cryptocurrency exchanges on Sept. 14, according to Glassnode data. The inflow was the highest since March 2020.

Let’s study the charts of the S&P 500 index, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) and the major cryptocurrencies to determine the key levels that could signal the start of a trending move.

S&P 500

The S&P 500 index (SPX) attempted a rebound off the uptrend line on Sept. 14 but the weak rebound showed a lack of urgency to defend the level. Sellers took advantage of this situation and pulled the price below the uptrend line on Sept. 15.

The level of 3,886 from where the index had bounced on Sept. 6 also failed to provide any support, indicating that traders are in a hurry to sell their positions. Usually, the breakdown from a level tends to retest it.

In this case, the price could rise to the uptrend line. If the price turns down from this level, it will suggest that bears have flipped the uptrend line into resistance. That could increase the possibility of a drop to 3,700.

The downsloping 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) (4,006) and the relative strength index below 37 suggest that bears are in command.

If the price turns up and rises above the uptrend line, it will suggest that the breakdown on Sept. 15 may have been a bear trap. That could propel the index to the downtrend line.

DXY

The DXY is in a strong uptrend. The bears tried to pull the price below the moving averages but the bulls vigorously defended the 50-day simple moving average (SMA(107) on Sept. 13.

Both moving averages are sloping up and the RSI is in the positive territory indicating advantage to buyers. The bulls will next attempt to push the price above the overhead resistance at 110.78. This is an important level to keep an eye on because if the price sustains above this level, the rally could extend to 115.

If the price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance and breaks below the 20-day EMA (109), it will suggest a consolidation in the near term. The price could then range between 107.58 and 110.78 for a few days. A potential trend change could be signaled if bears sink the price below 107.58.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin formed a Doji candlestick pattern on Sept. 14, indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears. The uncertainty resolved to the downside on Sept. 15 but the bears have failed to build upon this advantage. This indicates that the selling pressure reduces at lower levels.

Buyers will attempt to salvage the situation by pushing the price above the 20-day EMA ($20,529). If that happens, the BTC/USDT pair could rise to the overhead resistance at $22,799. The bears may defend this level aggressively but if bulls thrust the price above it, the pair could rally to $25,211.

Contrarily, if the price turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are viewing rallies as a selling opportunity. That could sink the pair to the strong support at $18,510. The zone between $18,510 and $17,622 could witness aggressive buying from the bulls because the failure to defend this zone may start the next leg of the downtrend.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) bounced off the support line on Sept. 14 but the joy of the bulls proved to be short-lived. The price turned down sharply from the 20-day EMA ($1,609) and plunged below the support line on Sept. 15.

The 20-day EMA has started to turn down and the RSI has slipped below 39, indicating that bears are in control. The sellers have pulled the price to $1,422 and if this support cracks, the ETH/USDT pair could drop to $1,280.

If the price turns up from the current level, the pair could recover to the moving averages, which may act as a strong resistance. The bulls will have to clear this hurdle to suggest that the selling pressure could be reducing.

BNB/USDT

The bears pulled BNB below the immediate support at $275 but they are struggling to keep the price down. This indicates that lower levels are attracting buyers.

If the price sustains above $275, the BNB/USDT pair could be in the early stages of forming a symmetrical triangle. This suggests uncertainty about the next directional move among the bulls and the bears. That could keep the price inside the triangle for some time.

If the price rises above the 20-day EMA ($283), the pair could rally to the resistance line of the triangle. A break above the triangle could push the pair to $338.

Another possibility is that the price turns down from the 20-day EMA and plummets below the support line of the triangle. That could start a decline to $258 and later to $239.

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) has been range-bound between $0.30 and $0.39 for the past several weeks. In the past few days, the range has shrunk further with bulls buying the dips to $0.32 and bears selling the recovery to the 50-day SMA ($0.35).

The price action inside a range is usually volatile and difficult to call. Still, as the buyers had successfully defended the $0.32 support between Aug. 28 and Sept. 7, they will again try to do that. If the price rises from the current level, the XRP/USDT pair could rally to the 20-day EMA ($0.34) and later to the 50-day SMA.

If bulls drive the price above the 50-day SMA, the likelihood of a rally to $0.39 increases. The bears are expected to defend this level aggressively. On the downside, if the price slips below $0.32, the crucial support of $0.30 may be retested.

ADA/USDT

The bears are attempting to build upon their advantage in Cardano (ADA). They sold the recovery to the 20-day EMA ($0.48) on Sept. 14 and are trying to pull the price below the immediate support at $0.45.

Although moving averages are not a valuable tool in a ranging market, they tend to be helpful to determine the short-term trend. The 20-day EMA has started to turn down and the RSI is in the negative territory, indicating advantage to bears. If the price slips and sustains below $0.45, the ADA/USDT pair could drop to $0.42.

If bulls want to gain the upper hand, they will have to arrest the decline and push the price above the moving averages. That could clear the path for a rally to the downtrend line. A break above this resistance could indicate that the bulls are back in the driver’s seat.

SOL/USDT

Solana (SOL) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($33.84) on Sept. 15, indicating that the sentiment remains negative and bears are selling on minor rallies.

The SOL/USDT pair could decline to the strong support at $30. This level was resilient during the onslaught between Aug. 28 and Sept. 7 and gave a bounce to $39 on Sept. 13. Short-term traders may again expect a bounce off $30 and are likely to buy the dips to this level.

The rebound off the support could continue to face hurdles at the 20-day EMA and then again at the 50-day SMA ($36.95). If the price closes above this resistance, it could open the doors for a possible up-move to $48. Conversely, if the $30 level cracks, the pair could slide to the vital support at $26.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) has continued its slide and is near the strong support of $0.06. The price rebounded off this level on Sept. 7; hence, it may again attract buyers.

A break and close above the 20-day EMA ($0.06) will be the first sign of demand building up at higher levels. The DOGE/USDT pair could then rise to $0.07. This level may again act as a resistance but if bulls push the price above it, the pair could rise to $0.08 and thereafter to $0.09.

If the price slips below the immediate support at $0.06, the pair could slide to the June low near $0.05. The bears will have to sink and sustain the price below this level to signal the start of the next leg of the downtrend. The pair could then extend the decline to $0.04.

DOT/USDT

The bulls attempted to start arecovery on Sept. 14 but higher levels attracted selling by the bears. Polkadot (DOT) turned down on Sept. 15 and the bears are trying to sink the price below the immediate support of $6.75.

Buyers had successfully defended the $6.75 level on two previous occasions; hence, a break and close below it may intensify selling. The DOT/USDT pair could first drop to $6.50 and later to the crucial support at $6.

As the previous three recoveries have turned down from the 50-day SMA ($7.86), it remains the key level to watch out for on the upside. The bulls will have to overcome this barrier to start a rally to $9.17 and then to $10.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

Why September is shaping up to be a potentially ugly month for Bitcoin price

Bitcoin has closed its previous five months of September in losses and could suffer similar pains if history repeats.

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls should not get excited about the recovery from the June lows of $17,500 just yet as BTC heads into its riskiest month in the coming days.

The psychology behind the “September effect”

Historic data shows September being Bitcoin’s worst month between 2013 and 2021, except in 2015 and 2016. At the same time, the average Bitcoin price decline in the month is a modest -6%.

*Bitcoin monthly returns. Source: CoinGlass*

Interestingly, Bitcoin’s poor track record across the previous September months coincides with similar downturns in the stock market. For instance, the average decline of the U.S. benchmark S&P 500 in September is 0.7% in the last 25 years.

*S&P 500 performance in August and September since 1998. Source: Bloomberg*

Traditional chart analysts have dubbed this annual drop-off as the “September effect.”

Analysts argue that investors exit their market positions after returning from their summer vacations in September to lock gains, or even tax losses, ahead of the year’s close.

Meanwhile, they also note that individual investors liquidate their assets in September to pay for their children’s annual school costs.

Bitcoin’s correlation with the stock market has been largely positive during and after the coronavirus pandemic. Therefore, in addition to the September effect, these mirroring price trends could also increase BTC’s likelihood of dropping high in the ominous month.

So expect low volume, chop & random violent moves in either direction. The point of this post isn’t to fearmonger anyone. Always a green markets somewhere. I’m sharing insight on what to expect to save newer retail traders from excruciating pain. Be patient and embrace the suck

— Seven V. Matos (@Sevenvmx) August 22, 2022

Fed eyes 75bps rate hike

Bitcoin’s losses in 2022 were drawn from fears of the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes and the complete unwinding of its $120 billion monthly bond-buying plan to tackle rising inflation.

But the market’s narrative shifted to hopes that inflation had peaked. The belief strengthened after the July U.S. consumer price index (CPI) came at 8.5% versus 9.1% in the month prior, leading to speculations that the Fed would tone down its tightening plans.

It coincided with Bitcoin and S&P 500 recouping small portions of their yearly losses, as illustrated below.

*BTC/USD versus S&P 500 (SPX) daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

But several analysts believe that Bitcoin’s recovery could be a bull trap, a “relief rally ” that will trap investors who think the market has bottomed.

The psychology of a relief rally

Price gets just bullish enough to fool you that this rally is the real deal.

There could be an end to the pain.

Then BLAMO, the market rugs you shattering your hopes.

Expect this a few more times during the bear!#bitcoin #crypto

— Lark Davis (@TheCryptoLark) August 22, 2022

Moreover, most Fed officials still favor raising by 75 basis points at their next meeting in September, given their pledge to bring inflation down to 2%.

As a result, Bitcoin and S&P 500 risk continuing their prevailing correction trend in September, eyeing more yearly lows.

Bitcoin technicals hint at drop to $17.6K

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin will decline toward $19,250 by September if it breaks out of its current “bear flag” pattern. The bearish continuation setup is illustrated in the four-hour chart below.

*BTC/USD four-hour candle price chart featuring “bear flag” setup. Source: TradingView*

Meanwhile, on the daily chart, BTC has been breaking down from its rising wedge pattern since Aug. 19. The bearish reversal setup’s profit target comes to be near $17,600, as illustrated in the chart below.

*BTC/USD daily price chart featuring rising wedge breakdown setup. Source: TradingView*

Overall, September looks like it could once again be a red month for Bitcoin based on technical, fundamental and macro factors.