sentiment

Crypto Fear and Greed Index hits highest level since Bitcoin’s all-time high

Sentiment toward the crypto market is the most positive its been since around the time Bitcoin hit its all-time high almost 16 months ago.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has hit its highest index score this year, reaching levels not seen since Bitcoin (BTC) posted its all-time high in November 2021.

A March 20 update of the Index showed a score of 68, placing it firmly within the “Greed” territory.

*The Index’s score of 66 as shown on March 20. Source: alternative.me*

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index aims to numerically present the current “emotions and sentiments” towards Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market, with the highest score being 100.

The last time the index recorded a score above 66 was on Nov. 16, 2021, just days after Bitcoin’s all-time high of over $69,000 was recorded on Nov. 10, 2021, according to Coingecko.

*All time chart of the Index, Nov. 16, 2021, was the last time it recorded a score above 60. Source: alternative.me*

Sentiment around BTC and crypto has been bullish since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the resulting fallout in the traditional financial system.

Over the past seven days, Bitcoin has recorded gains of around 27.8% as per Coingecko data, and hit $28,000 for the first time since June 2022.

Crypto financial services Matrixport’s head of research Markus Thielen suggested in a March 20 analysis that there is more upside on the cards for BTC, as the “liquidity story continues to be in Bitcoin’s favor.”

The analyst has adjusted his near-term price target to $36,000 by June 2023, while he has tipped a year-end target of $45,000.

*Matrixport head of research Markus Thielen has predicted Bitcoin could be on the way to $36,000 in the next few months. Source:* *Matrixport*

Meanwhile, Charles Edwards, founder and CEO of investment firm Capriole, predicted an even more ambitious price target of $100,000 for BTC.

In a March 14 tweet, Edwards, called BTC price action in 2023 a “Textbook perfect Bitcoin ‘Bump & Run Reversal”, and based on his interpretation of the data, he thinks “The target is over $100,000.”

However, he did note that, “chart patterns do fail, don’t use this as a trading / investment plan. Manage your risks!”

Ryan Selkis, founder and CEO of crypto analytics firm Messari shared a similar “rough” prediction in a March 16 post, explaining why he thought over the next twelve months it was possible for BTC to hit $100,000.

According to Selkis, a combination of bank failures and changes to federal monetary polices will see more outside investment into crypto.

My rough prediction for the next twelve months:

1. More bank failures in the next couple of weeks.
2. Fed cuts / QE is back!
3. BTC climbs, sustained moderate inflation.
4. “Outside Money” / “Sound Money” -> $100k / BTC.
5. Institutions buy faster than Feds can shut down.

Game.

— Ryan Selkis (@twobitidiot) March 17, 2023

“But the key is threading the needle so institutions can buy it and defend it alongside of us. Best case scenario right now,” Selkis said.

“This is an optimistic bet on the future, as BTC is treated as a life raft and peaceful exit option,” he added.

Bitcoin has been ranked by investment firm Goldman Sachs as the top performing asset this year, gaining 51% in year-to-date absolute returns.

Goldman Sachs has revealed Bitcoin has outpaced many traditional investment assets. Source: Goldman Sachs

In a March 17 note, the asset manager revealed Bitcoin’s total returns YTD has outpaced the likes of information technology, gold, the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500, among others.

89% still trust centralized custodians despite 2022’s collapses: Survey

A January survey from Paxos found that 89% of respondents still trusted “intermediaries” to hold their crypto, despite the collapses and bankruptcies last year.

American crypto users haven’t lost their trust in “intermediaries” to hold their crypto, with a January survey from Paxos suggesting a majority of United States crypto hodlers still trust banks, exchanges and mobile payment apps to custody their assets.

An annual online survey published on March 7 by the stablecoin issuer conducted on Jan. 5 and Jan. 6 sought to understand how the crypto winter and “large industry fallouts” in 2022 — including the bankruptcies of FTX and Alameda Research — impacted consumer behavior and confidence in the crypto ecosystem. Paxos noted:

“2022 was a rollercoaster year for the crypto industry.”

“Ranging from some of the highest Bitcoin prices ever to some of the lowest, largescale industry fallouts from companies like Terra, FTX, Alameda Research, and more — it was a volatile and potentially confidence-testing year for the ecosystem,” Paxos added.

After a turbulent end to 2022, crypto consumers have remained confident for 2023. We conducted a consumer survey and found many reasons why crypto is still viewed as a primary staple for financial livelihoods. Read our full survey here: https://t.co/AwFrGMuX0r pic.twitter.com/TZcmct0O5L

— Paxos (@PaxosGlobal) March 7, 2023

However, the survey found that of those that heard and followed the FTX saga, more than half (57%) of respondents either planned to buy more crypto or simply do nothing as a result of the news.

It also found that 89% of respondents still trusted “intermediaries” such as “banks, crypto exchanges and/or mobile payment apps” to hold their crypto, stating:

“In fact, despite the high-profile collapses and underlying poor risk management practices seen in several crypto companies, crypto owners still trust intermediaries to hold crypto on their behalf.”

The survey also found more desire from consumers to be able to buy Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) and other digital assets from household or traditional banks, with 75% of respondents indicating they were “likely or very likely” to purchase crypto from their “primary bank” if it were offered, a 12 percentage point increase from the year before.

*Graph showing respondents who indicated they were likely to purchase crypto from their primary bank. Source: Paxos*

“Additionally, 45% of respondents reported they would be encouraged to invest more in crypto if there was more mainstream adoption by banks and other financial institutions,” Paxos added.

It said a “significant untapped opportunity” existed for banks if they expanded offerings to digital assets. “Not only would these services satisfy increasing demand, but they would also result in higher engagement,” Paxos claimed.

Respondents qualified for the survey if they lived in the United States, were over 18 years of age, had a total household income greater than $50,000 and purchased cryptocurrency sometime within the last three years. The survey recruited 5,000 participants.

*75% of respondents continued to be confident in the future of crypto. Source: Paxos*

“Despite the volatile 2022 crypto landscape, consumers didn’t lose faith in their crypto investments. This number was unchanged from the previous year’s report, underlining the long-term confidence of those participating in crypto markets,” wrote Paxos.

The timing of the survey, however, means that the gleaned results did not take into account more recent crypto headwinds, such as the bankruptcy of crypto lender Genesis, the crackdown on Binance USD (BUSD) involving Paxos and the financial uncertainty of crypto bank Silvergate Capital.

Bitcoin steps out of ‘fear’ for the first time in nine months

The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index reached an index score of 52 over the weekend, marking the first time it’s hit neutral territory in three quarters.

The highly-referenced Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index moved into neutral territory over the weekend following several months of fear.

On Jan. 15, the index reached a neutral level of 52, its highest since April 5, 2022. The move follows a 24% gain for Bitcoin (BTC) over the past seven days.

The market sentiment tracker hit a multi-year low of nine in June 2022. Since then it has been hovering between 20 and 30 in the “extreme fear” category. Furthermore, it registered its longest-ever streak of extreme fear in mid-2022, as reported by Cointelegraph.

The fear and greed index uses “motions and sentiments from different sources,” including current volatility, market momentum and volume, social media and Google trends data.

The data from these sources is then used to create a specific number to summarize the emotional landscape regarding BTC and crypto markets.

It comprises five categories ranging from extreme fear to extreme greed, the latter not seen since October 2021.

At the time of writing, the index has dipped back down to 45, which puts it back into the “fear” category, suggesting that confidence has yet to make a full return.

Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 45. Neutral
Current price: $20,879 pic.twitter.com/lnj3pd73XL

— Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index (@BitcoinFear) January 16, 2023

Meanwhile, BTC has seen its second-longest streak of gains in history, with a 12-day run this month. The asset has gained 28% since the beginning of this year, wiping out all losses in the crash that followed the FTX collapse in early November 2022.

The massive momentum has created a large movement in technical indicators such as the RSI (relative strength index), which has hit its highest level for four years on the daily timeframes.

High RSI figures can suggest that an asset is overbought and a correction is due.

Highest RSI levels on Daily $BTC chart for 4 years.

Each of the prior 3 touches of the 90 level responded as follows:

Touch 1: BTC continued +18% higher before correcting -12%

Touch 2: BTC continued +16% higher before correcting -21%

Touch 3: No BTC gain and -31% correction pic.twitter.com/swQSLqATIi

— Cold Blooded Shillver (@ColdBloodShill) January 15, 2023

Several analysts have labeled the recent move as a bull trap but a solid weekly close has led some to believe the momentum will continue.

$BTC Weekly

You could not dream up a more bullish weekly candle. pic.twitter.com/fv66u76ujV

— The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) January 15, 2023

Professional trader and chart guru, Peter Brandt, summed it up on Jan. 16, tweeting:

“Any idiot can make wild guesses about markets, so here is my dunce-hat prediction. In reality, nobody has a clue what any given market will do. $BTC.”

Bitcoin was trading up 2.2% on the day at $21,165 at the time of writing, according to CoinGecko.

FTX collapse won’t impact everyday use of crypto in Brazil: Transfero CEO

The fall of FTX undoubtedly hurt investor sentiment toward crypto, but it won’t change its popularity as a means for cross-border transactions.

The crumbling of the FTX crypto empire may have damaged Brazilian retail and institutional sentiment toward crypto. However, its impact won’t affect everyday citizens — who will still use crypto for cross-border transactions.

Reflecting on the recent fall of FTX, Thiago César, the CEO of fiat on-ramp provider Transfero Group said that the exchange’s fall, like in many countries around the world, has hurt confidence around centralized crypto exchanges and crypto in general.

Transfero Group is tied in closely with the Brazilian crypto ecosystem and FTX as it was the fiat on-and-off-ramp provider for the exchange and is also the issuer of Brazilian Stablecoin BRZ, which was listed on the now-defunct exchange.

César told Cointelegraph that the collapse of the exchange had removed a “big liquidity source” from the market, as FTX was ranked within the top three in terms of trading volume.

He also noted that uncertainty surrounding centralized crypto exchanges caused a “big outflow of funds” from exchanges in Brazil, with many looking into self-custody — estimating at least 20% of trading volume has been lost on exchanges so far.

“A lot of people are trying to even liquidate whatever positions they have in crypto and we just hold money in the bank account.”

César noted the FTX saga will make crypto investment a “harder sell” for new investors and traders.

“For the crypto investor/trader of course. It’s a harder sell now. If you go to a person who is not crypto savvy and you try to convince him to invest, especially in Brazil — the population has always been very skeptical of crypto. Now it’s harder,” he said.

However, he notes that for people that use crypto as a means for cross-border payments or the “internationalization of money,” there will unlikely be any impact from the FTX collapse.

“A lot of the crypto volume in Brazil derives from players that are willing to exchange their local currency into an internationally liquid asset denominated in dollars. So in that sense, the market will not die down because crypto is just rails for that.”

In October, a report from Chainalysis found that remittance payments and battling inflation were two of the most significant drivers of crypto adoption in Latin America.

César said the FTX collapse will likely be used by local exchanges “as a lobbying tool” to push for regulations aimed at bringing international exchanges in line.

César added that these crypto exchanges had been pushing for regulation in Brazil that would “segregate” local and international exchanges by taking away international exchange’s access to their global liquidity books.

“They were proposing that regulation would enforce for example, that liquidity on the books in Brazilian reais be segregated from international books.”

César explained that such regulation would hurt international exchanges as their main advantage comes from liquid, international global books.

In a Nov. 18 report from Reuters, Roberto Dagnoni, the executive chairman and CEO of Mercado Bitcoin said crypto laws in Brazil have been “kind of dormant” during the election period but now needed priority.

“The rules that currently exist have not been applicable to some players, so they can do whatever you want,” he said.

FTX collapse won’t impact everyday use of crypto in Brazil: Transfero CEO

The fall of FTX undoubtedly hurt investor sentiment toward crypto, but it won’t change its popularity as a means for cross-border transactions.

Reflecting on the recent fall of FTX, Thiago César, the CEO of fiat on-ramp provider Transfero Group, said that the exchange’s fall, like in many countries around the world, has hurt confidence around centralized crypto exchanges and crypto in general.

César told Cointelegraph that the collapse of the exchange had removed a “big liquidity source” from the market, as FTX was ranked within the top three in terms of trading volume.

“A lot of people are trying to even liquidate whatever positions they have in crypto and we just hold money in the bank account.”

César noted the FTX saga will make crypto investment a “harder sell” for new investors and traders.

However, he notes that for people that use crypto as a means for cross-border payments or the “internationalization of money,” there will unlikely be any impact from the FTX collapse.

In October, a report from Chainalysis found that remittance payments and battling inflation were two of the most significant drivers of crypto adoption in Latin America.

César said the FTX collapse will likely be used by local exchanges “as a lobbying tool” to push for regulations aimed at bringing international exchanges in line.

“They were proposing that regulation would enforce for example, that liquidity on the books in Brazilian reais be segregated from international books.”

César explained that such regulation would hurt international exchanges as their main advantage comes from liquid, international global books.

In a Nov. 18 report from Reuters, Roberto Dagnoni, the executive chairman and CEO of Mercado Bitcoin, said crypto laws in Brazil have been “kind of dormant” during the election period but now needed priority.

“The rules that currently exist have not been applicable to some players, so they can do whatever you want,” he said.

Institutional investors headed for a tipping point on crypto — Apollo Capital

Apollo Capital CIO Henrik Andersson said there will come a point when not investing in crypto will be a “career risk.”

Henrik Andersson, CIO of crypto asset fund manager Apollo Capital believes institutions may soon “flip” on their conservative stance towards crypto.

Speaking to Cointelegraph, the Melbourne-based crypto fund manager said that while institutional interest in crypto has been slow in picking up, particularly in Australia, there are a lot of players that are waiting for the right moment to strike.

Andersson admitted that major institutional investors in Australia, particularly retirement funds (or superannuation funds) have yet to warm up to the digital asset space.

“It’s still early days. So yes, speaking to a lot of family offices in Australia and smaller boutique institutions. The big industry super funds are not there yet.”

“From their point of view its still a lot of education going on. So it will still take some time, I believe,” he added.

Apollo Capital is a fund manager focused on providing family office and institutional investors access to crypto investment opportunities. One of its latest launched funds is the Apollo Capital Frontier Fund, which is focused on nonfungible token (NFT) infrastructure, decentralized finance (DeFi) and multi-chain infrastructure.

Asked what needs to happen for institutional sentiment to change, Andersson believes this will “flip” when big players start making more substantial moves in the space.

“No one wants to be the first into something like this. Because if you’re the first one and things go wrong, then there’s a career risk. That will flip at some point to the opposite,” explained Andersson.

“At some point, when prices go up, then people don’t want to miss out. And if others are making investments, then it will become a career risk not to be invested.”

In Australia, several large banking institutions such as ANZ, NAB and Commonwealth Bank (CBA) have already been making forays into the digital asset space.

“We’ve seen several of the major banks here in Australia, taking an interest in digital assets. So that’s really, really good to see,” he said.

CBA was notably the first major bank in the country to announce crypto services through its mobile banking app last year, but later put its plans on hold noting it was still waiting on regulatory clarity from the new government.

Others have pushed forward with stablecoin and tokenized asset trading.

Internationally, large banking conglomerates such as Singapore’s DBS Bank are continuing to grow its digital assets business despite the bear market, while major investment banks have also been beefing up its coverage of the crypto space.

“You have all the major investment banks in the world writing research reports on the crypto space. Everyone from Goldman Sachs to Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, JP Morgan and others. So there’s definitely still a lot of interest in the space from those kinds of institutional players,” he explained.

“So while it seems like its going very slowly now, you know, once the sentiment changes, we see the first players making investments that can change very, very quickly.”

Earlier this week, Irfan Ahmad, the Asia Pacific digital lead for the bank’s crypto unit State Street Digital told Sydney Morning Herald that despite the current crypto winter, institutional investors have maintained their interest in blockchain and digital assets.

Institutional investors headed for a tipping point on crypto: Apollo Capital

Apollo Capital CIO Henrik Andersson said there will come a point when not investing in crypto will be a “career risk.”

Henrik Andersson, chief investment officer of crypto asset fund manager Apollo Capital, believes institutions may soon “flip” on their conservative stance toward crypto.

Andersson admitted that major institutional investors in Australia, particularly retirement funds (or superannuation funds) have yet to warm up to the digital asset space:

“It’s still early days. So yes, speaking to a lot of family offices in Australia and smaller boutique institutions. The big industry super funds are not there yet.”

“From their point of view its still a lot of education going on. So it will still take some time, I believe,” he added.

Asked what needs to happen for institutional sentiment to change, Andersson believes this will “flip” when big players start making more substantial moves in the space.

“At some point, when prices go up, then people don’t want to miss out. And if others are making investments, then it will become a career risk not to be invested.”

In Australia, several large banking institutions such as ANZ, NAB and Commonwealth Bank (CBA) have already been making forays into the digital asset space.

“We’ve seen several of the major banks here in Australia, taking an interest in digital assets. So that’s really, really good to see,” he said.

Others have pushed forward with stablecoin and tokenized asset trading.

Internationally, large banking conglomerates such as Singapore’s DBS Bank are continuing to grow their digital assets business despite the bear market, while major investment banks have also been beefing up their coverage of the crypto space.

“So while it seems like its going very slowly now, you know, once the sentiment changes, we see the first players making investments that can change very, very quickly.”

Earlier this week, Irfan Ahmad, the Asia Pacific digital lead for the bank’s crypto unit State Street Digital, told Sydney Morning Herald that despite the current crypto winter, institutional investors have maintained their interest in blockchain and digital assets.