SEC vs. Ripple

XRP price rally stalls as SEC vs. Ripple ruling drags on — 25% drop ahead?

XRP nears key breakout, but lackluster volumes may spoil its 30% rally setup.

XRP (XRP) rose 2.1% to $0.52 on April 11, extending its daily gains from $0.50 alongside a broader cryptocurrency market rally, with traders pinning hopes on easing inflation data into April 12.

XRP price: lackluster volumes raise risk of 25% correction

XRP’s upside move brought it closer to breaking out of its prevailing bull pennant range, with a price target of $0.65.

XRP/USD daily candle price chart. Source: Tradingview

However, lackluster volumes accompanying XRP’s gains hinted at a potential price correction in the future. That could mean a short-term pullback toward the pennant’s lower trendline near $0.51 in April or a broader correction altogether invalidating the bullish continuation setup.

The extended sell-off scenario is best visible on the weekly chart below, wherein a key resistance-turned-support line has limited XRP’s upside prospects.

XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

If the fractal plays out again, XRP’s price will risk falling toward its multimonth ascending trendline support near $0.40 by May, down about 25% from current price levels.

SEC vs. Ripple hype cools down

The XRP price has soared by nearly 55% in 2023, primarily due to anticipations that Ripple will win the lawsuit against it by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). That includes its 43% rise in March amid speculations that the ruling will come out by the month’s end.

Related: Ripple, Montenegro sign deal on project for unspecified national digital currency

But it didn’t. Simultaneously, the Google search score for the keyword “SEC vs. Ripple” declined from its March peak of 100 — a perfect score — to 56 in the week ending April 8.

Internet trends for the keyword “SEC vs. Ripple” on a 12-month relative basis. Source: Google Trends

In addition, “XRP” social volumes dropped from their March highs, according to data tracked by Santiment.

XRP social volumes. Source: Santiment

Lastly, XRP remains in lockstep with Bitcoin (BTC) on a daily timeframe. However, as Cointelegraph reported, BTC risks a correction to $25,000 in the near term due to rate hike risks, putting XRP and other altcoins in danger of losses as well.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Stellar’s XLM bounces 15% two days after hitting record low versus XRP

XLM price is playing catchup to XRP’s March gains, quickly rising 25% versus the U.S. dollar while the XLM/XRP pair bounces from record lows.

The price of Stellar (XLM) rebounded 15% versus its arch-rival XRP (XRP) two days after the XLM/XRP pair set a record low of 0.181.

Notably, the XLM/XRP pair rose to its intraday high of 0.20 XRP on March 31, coinciding with a decoupling between Stellar and XRP in the U.S. dollar market. For instance, XLM’s price has jumped over 11% since March 29 versus XRP’s 3% decline.

XLM/XRP weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

XLM price eyes 10% gains versus XRP in April

On a broader timeframe, XLM dropped 89% versus its peak of 1.655 XRP in January 2021. Interestingly, the peak formed a month after the United States Securities and Exchange Commission sued Ripple for allegedly selling securities in the form of XRP tokens. 

The SEC vs. Ripple case is now nearing its conclusion, with legal experts favoring a win for Ripple.

Meanwhile, XLM continues its long-term downtrend against XRP, though a rebound in April is on the cards.

On the daily chart, the XLM/XRP’s ongoing recovery started at its multimonth descending trendline resistance, which constitutes a falling channel, as shown below.

XLM/XRP daily price chart. Source: TradingView

The pair now looks toward flipping the 0.198–0.207 XRP resistance range as support to eye a run-up toward 0.22 XRP in April, up 10% from current prices.

XLM looks equally bullish versus the U.S. dollar

The Stellar price rallied more than 25% in March to reach $0.113, its highest level in four months. XLM is now positioned for a potential short-term price correction in the first week of April, followed by a rebound rally to new yearly highs.

At the core of this bullish outlook is a classic technical pattern dubbed cup-and-handle. The pattern forms when the price undergoes a U-shaped recovery, or cup, followed by a consolidation period, i.e., the handle, all under a common resistance level called “neckline.“

Meanwhile, it resolves after the price breaks above the neckline and rises by as much as the distance between the cup’s bottom and neckline.

Notably, XLM has been painting a similar cup-and-handle since November 2022. XLM/USD entered the pattern’s breakout stage during its price boom in March, and is now 20% away from reaching the breakout target near $0.131.

XLM/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Nonetheless, XLM’s daily relative strength index has entered its overbought zone above 70, suggesting a consolidation or correction period in the first week of April. As it happens, XLM’s price risks correcting toward its neckline at around $0.095, down 12% from current price levels.

Related: Why is XRP price up today?

Ideally, traders perceive such corrections as a method to analyze cup-and-handle’s breakout strength. So the breakout scenario will be confirmed when the price bounces from the neckline, accompanied by a rise in trading volumes.

Conversely, if the price closes below the neckline with a rise in volumes, it risks invalidating the cup-and-handle breakout scenario altogether.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

XRP price: ‘sell the news’ moment nears after crypto-leading 20% weekly gain

XRP whales have been accumulating since February with only days remaining until the SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit could reach its potential conclusion.

XRP (XRP) price is currently outperforming all other major cryptocurrencies as of March 27, rising over 20% in the past seven days.

XRP/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

XRP accumulation ahead of SEC vs. Ripple ruling

XRP has seen steady gains over the past seven days as the ongoing legal quandary between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to conclude by the end of March.

Meanwhile, the supply of XRP held by addresses with a balance between 10 million and 100 million tokens has risen by over 1% since February. That coincides with a 0.75% drop in the XRP supply held by the 1 million-10 million address cohort.

XRP balance in addresses holding between 1,000 and 100 million tokens. Source: Santiment

The addresses holding between 1,000 and 1 million XRP also increased their token holdings in the same period. That shows the XRP whales stacked up more tokens in the days leading up to the ruling on SEC vs. Ripple’s so-called summary judgment.

Multiple observers, including legal expert John Deaton, see Ripple winning the case, arguing that the SEC may have failed to give the company a “fair notice” before suing it for committing securities fraud. 

In recent months, Analisa Torres, the federal judge overseeing the lawsuit, has also favored Ripple on various motions. For instance, she has approved Ripple’s demand that the SEC makes its internal emails and documents regarding cryptocurrencies public, which may prove that the regulator unfairly targeted the company.

25% XRP price pullback in April?

From a technical perspective, the XRP/USD rally has brought the pair near a resistance confluence zone, which may lead to bearish reversal in the coming weeks.

The confluence comprises of a multi-year descending trendline (black), a 200-3D exponential moving average (200-3D EMA; the blue wave) and a support-turned-resistance horizontal level at around $0.50 (purple).

XRP/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

In addition, XRP’s three-day relative strength index (RSI) eyes a close above its overbought threshold of 70, adding to the bearish case for April. 

Related: Will BTC ditch the bear market? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

In the case of a pullback, the XRP price’s next downside target appears at its multi-month ascending trendline support (black) around $0.35, down about 25% from current price levels.

On the other hand, a breakout above the descending trendline will have XRP price eyeing $0.60 as the next upside target.

This level has served as support in December 2021 and January 2022 — and as resistance in the September-October 2022 session. It is also the target of a prevailing bull pennant structure.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.