regulation

LUNA2 traders are increasingly short despite 67.5% rally, $4 million liquidated

Downside pressure for Terraform Labs’ LUNA2 mounts amid investigations and rumors from a “Terra insider.”

Terra (LUNA2) reversed a portion of the losses this June 9 as its price per token rose by as much as 67.5% on the day, catching many traders off-guard with their perpetual swap positions.

LUNA2 traders are shorting it

In detail, LUNA2’s price soared from $2 to as high as $3.58. The volatile intraday move coincided with the liquidation of nearly $4 million worth of LUNA2 trades on Binance and Bybit, including $2.46 million worth of short positions, data from Coinglass shows.

Total LUNA2 liquidations. Source: Coinglass.com

Interestingly, LUNA2’s funding rates across Binance and Bybit remained negative, suggesting that traders are still short despite the price bounce. 

LUNA2 funding rates history. Source: Coinglass.com

Shadow wallets FUD

The downside sentiment in the LUNA2 market has strengthened largely because of its underperformance in recent weeks, led by its association with Terra, an algorithmic stablecoin project whose native tokens LUNA Classic (LUNAC; formerly known as LUNA) and TerraUSD (UST) collapsed in May.

Terraform Labs (TFL), the firm behind the Terra blockchain, formed LUNA2 from the ashes of the $40 billion project. It distributed the revamped token among investors who had suffered losses from their LUNC and UST investments via an airdrop.

As it appears, those LUNA2 recipients decided to dump the token to recover some of their losses, thus pushing its price down by 85% less than two weeks after it peaked at $12.24.

LUNA2/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Investors are also likely keeping their distance from LUNA2 amid allegations that Do Kwon, the founder/CEO of TFL, has lied about having zero LUNAC tokens. Notably, a self-proclaimed Terra insider, known by the pseudonym “FatMan,” claims that TFL and Kwon own 42 million LUNA worth over $200 million.

The user also revealed five “shadow wallets” that hold 42.81 million LUNA2 (worth over $110 million at June 9’s price), noting that they all belong to Kwon.

“[Do Kwon] used his shadow wallet to approve *his own proposal* through governance manipulation (TFL is not supposed to vote), told everyone it would be a community-owned chain, and then gave himself a nine-figure score,” Fatman alleged, adding:

“These are just the verified wallets — there are many others.”

TFL, Kwon under investigation

LUNA2 struggles because of the growing scrutiny around TFL, particularly after it was alfined $78 million by South Korea’s tax regulator in May. 

Related: Anchor dev claims he warned Do Kwon over unsustainable 20% interest rate

What’s more, South Korean prosecutors and police have launched an investigation following allegations that a TFL employee embezzled an undisclosed amount of Bitcoin (BTC) fro the company.

Additionally, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is also investigating whether TFL’s crypto tokens are illegal unregistered securities.

As a result, LUNA2’s price has a high chance of heading lower in June with the ongoing problems for TFL, legal pressures and overall bearish sentiment. 

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Grayscale hires former Solicitor General to help force Bitcoin ETF approval

Ahead of the July 6 SEC decision, the investment giant has hired Don Verrilli, a former U.S. Solicitor General as a senior legal strategist to work alongside its attorneys at Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP and its in-house counsel.

Grayscale Investments has hired a former U.S. Solicitor General in preparation for a potential legal spat with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), should the regulator reject its application for a spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) on July 6.

The company has been waiting on a decision from the SEC to convert its flagship $19.8 billion Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a spot-based ETF, since filing its application to the regulator on October 19, 2021.

The SEC has pushed back its decision on multiple occasions, once in December and again in February. A final decision on the application is expected on July 6.

Jake Chervinsky, head of policy at the crypto advocacy group Blockchain Association said adding such firepower to Grayscale’s legal team was a “strong move”, and that the SEC would have little chance of “surviving a legal challenge” if it decided to knock back approval now.

In March, Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein told Bloomberg that his firm would consider a lawsuit under the Administrative Procedure Act (APA) should the application for its Bitcoin Spot ETF be denied by the financial regulator.

He has been a vocal critic of the regulator, which approved crypto futures ETF products in October 2021 but is yet to do so for a spot ETF equivalent.

Donald B. Verrilli Jr., the new hire, is a former U.S. Solicitor General who served from 2011 to 2016 under Barack Obama’s administration. He is currently a partner in Californian law firm Munger, Tolles & Olson, and founded its Washington D.C. Office in 2016.

On Twitter, Grayscale explained that the lawyer has been involved in more than 50 cases before the U.S. Supreme Court, including several that dealt directly with Administrative Procedure Act (APA) violations.

He will serve as a senior legal strategist, working alongside its attorneys at Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP and its in-house counsel, including Craig Salm, who serves as chief legal officer.

Grayscale described Verrilli as one of the nation’s most experienced attorneys with “a deep understanding of legal theory, administrative procedure, and the practical matters of working with the judiciary branch.”

“We are thrilled that he is joining our team as we work towards a positive resolution for investors and the general public.”

Meanwhile Citadel Securities, a market maker that could provide liquidity for crypto ETFs such as that proposed by Grayscale on Tuesday said it was open to supporting crypto ETFs but won’t do so without regulators’ approval.

“We will be ready if and when those products are approved, but we are taking a measured approach,” said Citadel ETF head Kelly Brennan said in an interview with Bloomberg.

Market makers are key liquidity providers in the ETF ecosystem as they ensure continuous and efficient ETF trading.

Related: Why the world needs a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US: 21Shares CEO explains

Elsewhere in the world, crypto-linked ETFs have been gaining increasing popularity, with total assets invested in crypto ETFs and exchange-traded products (ETP) globally reaching $16.28 billion by the end of Q1 2022, according to data from ETF research firm ETFGI.

In February 2021, Canada debuted its first-ever Bitcoin ETF, the Purpose Bitcoin ETF, becoming one of the first countries in the world to adopt a spot Bitcoin ETF.

On May 12, Australia launched its first spot crypto ETFs, including a Bitcoin ETF from Cosmos Asset Management, plus BTC and Ether (ETH) spot ETFs from 21Shares. Another two crypto-backed ETFs were launched on Monday, June 6.

In May, Grayscale began trading its first European ETF, called Grayscale Future of Finance UCITS ETF, which has listings on the London Stock Exchange, Borsa Italiana as well as Deutsche Börse’s electronic trading platform Xetra.

BNB price risks 40% drop as SEC launches probe against Binance

Downside risks for BNB also come from a recent Reuter exposé that claims Binance laundered “at least $2.35 billion in illicit funds.”

Binance Coin (BNB) price dropped by nearly 7.3% on June 7 to below $275, its lowest level in three weeks.

What’s more, BNB price could drop by another 25%–40% in 2022 as its parent firm, Binance, faces allegations of breaking securities rules and laundering billions of dollars in illicit funds for criminals.

Bad news twice in a row

BNB was issued as a part of an initial coin offering (ICO) in 2017 that amassed $15 million for Binance.

The token mainly behaves as a utility asset within the Binance ecosystem, primarily enabling traders to earn discounts on their trading activities. Simultaneously, BNB also functions as a speculative financial asset, which has made it the fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

BNB market capitalization was $45.42 billion as of June 7. Source: CoinMarketCap

As a result, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is investigating whether the ICO of BNB tokens in 2017 was a sale of securities that should have been registered with the regulator, according to sources contacted by Bloomberg.

This risks putting downward pressure on BNB’s price, which has already lost more than half of its value after peaking out in May 2021 at around $700.

BNB holds above May–July 2021 support

In addition to the bad news, BNB’s plunge also came as a part of a broader correction trend elsewhere in the crypto market, with top coins Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) dipping by 7% and 7.25% on the same day.

Now, BNB tests the 61.8 Fib retracement level (near $274) of the Fibonacci retracement graph sketched from its $10-swing low to $700-swing high. Interestingly, the same level was instrumental as support during the May–July 2021 session that preceded a 170% price rally.

But weak fundamentals, including the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy, have raised BNB’s possibility of dropping below the 61.8 Fib line.

Related: The crypto market dropped in May, but June has a silver lining

If this happens, then BNB’s next downside target could be its 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the blue wave) near $200, down about 25% from June 7’s price.

The BNB/USD pair’s weekly relative strength index (RSI), now at 34, also shows more room to drop until the reading hits 30, an oversold level that indicates buying sentiment.

BNB/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

Meanwhile, a further drop below the 200-week EMA could have BNB eye the 0.786 Fib line near $160 as its support, down by 40% from June 7’s price.

Conversely, if BNB manages to hold strong above $274, it could rebound toward the area defined by its 0.5 Fib line around $355 and its 50-week EMA (the red wave) near $380, up over 20% from the current price level.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitfinex Bitcoin longs hit a record-high, but does that mean BTC has bottomed?

A key derivatives metric used by margin traders has hit a record-high, but there’s plenty of risk and a catch to consider.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been unable to close above $32,000 for the past 28 days, frustrating bulls and pushing the Fear and Greed index to bearish levels below 10. Even with June 6’s small boost, the tech-heavy Nasdaq stock market index is down 24% year-to-date.

Investors who keep a close eye on regulatory development were possibly scared after New York state made clear its intention to regulate the crypto industry, including Bitcoin mining.

On June 2, New York Attorney General Attorney Letitia James issued an investor alert against “risky cryptocurrency investments,” citing the assets’ volatility. According to Cointelegraph, the attorney general is convinced that crypto investments create “more pain than gain” for investors.

The New York State Senate approved a proof-of-work (PoW) mining ban on June 2 and the proposed controversial bill aims to prohibit any new mining operations in the state for the next two years and is now headed for the governor’s desk.

Interestingly, as all of this takes place, Bitcoin derivatives traders have never been so bullish, according to one metric.

Margin traders are extremely bullish

Margin trading allows investors to leverage their positions by borrowing stablecoins and using the proceeds to buy more cryptocurrency. When those savvy traders borrow Bitcoin, they use the coins as collateral for shorts, meaning they are betting on a price decrease.

That is why some analysts monitor the total lending amounts of Bitcoin and stablecoins to gain insight into whether investors are leaning bullish or bearish. Interestingly, Bitfinex margin traders entered their highest ever leverage long (bull) position on June 6.

Bitfinex BTC margin longs (blue), in BTC contracts. Source: TradingView

Bitfinex margin traders are known for creating position contracts of 20,000 BTC or higher in a very short time, indicating the participation of whales and large arbitrage desks.

Notice that the longs (bull) indicator vastly increased in mid-May and currently stands at 90,090 BTC contracts, its highest-ever registry. To understand how severe this movement was, one might compare it to the June–July 2021 previous all-time high of 54,500 BTC contracts in longs.

These traders hit the bullseye as their bullish positions peaked right as Bitcoin price bottomed. Over the subsequent months, they could sell those long (bull) contracts at a profit, reducing the number of open long positions (blue line).

Sometimes even whales get it wrong

One might assume that these whales and arbitrage desks trading at Bitfinex margin markets have better timing (or knowledge), and thus it makes sense to follow their steps. However, if we analyze the same metric for 2019 and 2020, a completely different scenario emerges.

Bitfinex BTC margin longs (blue), in BTC contracts. Source: TradingView

There were three hikes in the number of Bitfinex BTC margin longs this time around. The first instance happened between mid-November and mid-December 2019 after the indicator jumped from 25,200 BTC to 47,600 BTC longs. However, over the next month, the Bitcoin price failed to break above $8,300 and these traders closed their positions with minimal gains.

The next wave of BTC longs took place in early-February 2020, but those traders were caught by surprise after the Bitcoin price failed to break $10,500, forcing them to close their margin positions at a considerable loss.

Bitfinex BTC margin longs increased from 22,100 to 35,700 contracts in late-July 2020. The movement coincided with the price rally to $47,000, so the early entrants might have scored some profit, but most of the investors exited their margin longs with no gains.

Clever margin longs might be right 75% the time, but there’s a catch

To put things in perspective, over the previous four instances where BTC margin longs (bulls) significantly increased, investors had one profitable trade, two that were mostly neutral and one considerable loss.

Some might say odds still favor those tracking the indicator, but one must remember that whales and arbitrage desks could easily crash the market when closing their positions. In such cases, those following the strategy might arrive late to the party and come out at a loss.

Will the current Bitfinex margin longs increase result in extreme profits? It might depend on how traditional markets, mainly tech stocks, perform over the next couple of weeks.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.