rate hike

Bitcoin price rivals 10-month high as CPI data beats expectations

BTC price performance gets a fresh boost from strong U.S. inflation data, with Bitcoin bulls eyeing a clean trend breakout.

Bitcoin (BTC) spiked higher prior to the April 12 Wall Street open as United States inflation data outperformed market forecasts.

BTC/USD 1-minute candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

CPI offers “great inflation print” for risk-on bulls

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it neared new 10-month highs on Bitstamp.

Widely predicted volatility entered immediately following the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March. This broadly conformed to expectations, with the year-on-year increase undercutting assumptions by 0.2%.

“The all items index increased 5.0 percent for the 12 months ending March; this was the smallest 12-month increase since the period ending May 2021,” an accompanying press release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed.

This was nonetheless enough to spark some optimistic upside on crypto markets ahead of the Wall Street open, with potential further upside in line with equities to come.

Markets commentator Tedtalksmacro called the result a “great inflation print for the bulls.”

With CPI known as a classic catalyst for “fakeout” price action, however, market participants urged caution.

Popular analytics resource Skew predicted that the “market will hunt liquidity like every other CPI day,” with significant moves apt to spark liquidations on exchanges.

“CPI overall says slowing inflation CPI core says sticky inflationary conditions still,” a further post on Twitter commented about the likely U.S. macroeconomic policy path going forward.

“Probably one more hike. May data needs to confirm interest rate hike shock in order the FED to actually consider a pause in the hiking cycle.”

Market expectations on rate hikes moved only modestly despite the improvement in CPI data.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, there remained a 65% chance of a hike taking place at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in three weeks’ time, down from 75% before the release.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

Bitcoin bulls gain confidence in long-term trend

The latest BTC price action, meanwhile, further bolstered longer-timeframe bets that Bitcoin had conducted a break of its bear market.

Related: Bitcoin holds $30K, but some pro traders are skeptical about BTC price continuation

Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital noted that BTC/USD was continuing to build on its impressive daily close from April 11, which had taken it above a major resistance trendline.

“BTC is showing initial signs of a successful retest of the Higher High resistance into new support,” his latest analysis stated.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/Twitter

Related: Crypto audits and bug bounties are broken: Here’s how to fix them

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Will BTC ditch the bear market? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin price is gearing up for a key monthly close that could see it dump its 2022 bear market for good.

Bitcoin (BTC) enters the last week of March in uncertain territory as a strong weekly close still keeps $30,000 out of reach.

The largest cryptocurrency has sealed seven days of practically flat performance despite some volatility in between as the market seeks fresh direction. Where could it go next?

In what was a week of more surprises from the macroeconomy, BTC/USD spent much time reacting to decisions from the United States Federal Reserve and associated commentary.

Next up, however, is a period of relative calm, followed by a key monthly close, which analysis says could see the start of a new bullish trend.

Bitcoin is currently up 20% for March, meaning that the coming days will decide the strength of the ongoing recovery from multi-year lows.

Cointelegraph takes a look at five key topics to bear in mind during the final week of what has been a volatile month.

Countdown to Bitcoin price monthly close

Bitcoin managed to close the week with a modest flourish, returning to the $28,000 mark, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Binance). Source: TradingView

This meant that BTC/USD stayed practically unmoved versus the weekend prior, delivering some impressive stability despite the periods of volatility which occurred in the intervening period.

Nonetheless, concerns are brewing that the market may struggle to preserve current levels.

In a fresh analysis on March 27, popular Twitter account IncomeSharks flagged on-balance volume (OBV) as a telltale sign of decreasing momentum.

“Just hard to ignore the weak OBV at resistance, price at resistance, and the lack of demand at these prices,” it commented alongside a chart.

“If we drop we get a new wave of buying demand that should push us higher. Only way we go up from here is big news in the markets or another squeeze.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: IncomeSharks/ Twitter

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital agreed that a retracement would be “healthy” for Bitcoin should it enter.

“If BTC continues to struggle to break beyond $28,700 then a healthy dip may need to occur to gain fresh buyer interest at lower levels,” he tweeted on the day.

“Technicals are showing some short-term weakness & it could be that a catalyst will soon appear to play that weakness out.”

Over the weekend, Rekt Capital had flagged that price point as a critical area to watch while remaining upbeat about the longer-term trend.

BTC/USD, he forecast, will “confirm” a breakout from its bear market at the end of March, provided the monthly close preserves the 200-week moving average (WMA) as support.

The 200WMA currently stands at around $25,500, giving bulls room for a modest dip.

Similarly level-headed, but on shorter timeframes, is trader Crypto Tony, who eyed $27,700 and $26,600 to hold on the day.

“We have yet to lose the EQ at $27,700 on a 4 hour time frame, so the doomsday tweets can take a break,” he summarized, referring to the point in a range where buy and sell pressure is balanced.

“The range low at $26,600 is what we need to lose to begin a short hedge position for myself.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Crypto Tony/ Twitter

PCE data in focus as SVB gets bought out

Unlike last week, the final days of March are not slated to deliver surprises from the U.S. macroeconomic realm.

That is not to say that a curveball will not appear, but the rest of the month is comparatively quiet in terms of macro data releases.

The one key exception could be the March 31 release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), which holds crucial insights into U.S. inflation trends.

“US PCE inflation numbers are due this week – last month this data caused a volatile move lower in risk,” markets commentator Tedtalksmacro commented.

“However, this month core PCE is expected to cool to +4.4% YoY down from +4.7% previous. That would be risk positive.”

Should Bitcoin react to PCE data that comes in outside expectations, the results could make for a volatile weekend just a day before the monthly close.

Any new developments in the ongoing banking crisis would add uncertainty into the mix, and the risk is there — contagion remains in Europe, while the defunct Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) found a buyer overnight.

Having hiked interest rates despite the crisis, the Fed is on a diverging path when it comes to interest rates, and further hikes could come, it says. In contrast, markets hold the opposite opinion due to the stress already induced by prior rate increases.

“Much tighter financial conditions and ongoing signs of bank stress are major reasons why the market thinks the Fed will be forced to abandon their plans,” analysis platform Mosaic Asset explained in the latest edition of its updates series, “The Market Mosaic,” on March 26.

Related: Crypto winter can take a toll on hodlers’ mental health

Mosaic further warned that historically, risk assets performed worse immediately following news of a rate hike policy pivot.

“If the Fed does pause the rate hiking campaign, it will signal growing concerns that the central bank is breaking something in the capital markets. But also consider that the Fed has a track record of adjusting policy only when it’s too late,” it continued.

It added that “as a result, in past bear markets the steepest stock market declines happened after the Fed pivots to a pause or outright rate cuts.”

BTC hodlers setting up supply shock

Bitcoin hodlers are setting new records under current conditions and laying the foundations for a supply shock in the process.

The latest data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows that the amount of the available BTC supply, which has not left its wallet in two years or longer, is now at all-time highs.

As of March 27, more than 52.5% of all mined BTC has stayed dormant since at least March 2021, with owners not selling or transferring during the ensuing bear market.

Bitcoin dormant 2+ years chart. Source: Glassnode/ Twitter

Address numbers are also in “up only mode,” with the number of wallets holding 0.1 BTC or more setting new records on the day.

Likewise, wallets with a non-zero balance are more plentiful than ever, with 45,388,865 in existence as of March 27.

Bitcoin non-zero balance wallet chart. Source: Glassnode/ Twitter

The numbers feed into an existing narrative over what will happen to BTC price action during the next wave of mainstream consumer interest.

With so much of the supply now ferreted away into cold storage, any rush for BTC could spark the realization that one of the world’s hardest assets is already too scarce.

According to Glassnode, the overall BTC balance held by major exchanges remains near its lowest in five years.

Exchange BTC balance chart. Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin delivers perfect timing

For some, BTC price action is right on track for repeating past cycles, setting a new all-time high in the process.

Among them is Tedtalksmacro, who notes that the timing of the November multi-year lows on BTC/USD was more or less perfect.

Since then, a rally that began in January has stuck, and there have been no signs yet that fresh macro lows will appear to take out the $15,600 floor from November 2022.

“~390 days until the next BTC halving,” Tedtalksmacro wrote on March 27, referencing a dedicated thread about Bitcoin’s performance from the end of January.

BTC price is thus sticking to historical precedent by bottoming more than 400 days before its next block subsidy halving.

Tedtalksmacro, meanwhile, is not the only popular commentator taking halving cycle timing into account when it comes to price.

Earlier this month, Rekt Capital estimated that the next all-time high should be in around 18 months.

“It takes BTC around 900 days to rally from Downtrend breakout to Bull Market top,” he explained.

“If history repeats, $BTC will perform a Bull Market top in the Summer of 2025.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/ Twitter

Crypto market sentiment stays greedy

As with last week, a potential thorn remains in the side of Bitcoin’s bull run, which comes from investors themselves.

Related: XRP, LTC, XMR and AVAX show bullish signs as Bitcoin battles to hold $28K

Despite the volatility over the Fed rate hike and inability to push closer to $30,000, Bitcoin has seen the kind of sentiment absent since its late 2021 all-time highs.

According to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, “greed” presently characterizes market sentiment in crypto more broadly.

On March 21, the Index’s score hit 68/100, the most since November 2021, and has continued to circle the mid-60s since.

While not near “extreme” levels, the higher the Index rises into greed, the more likely a market correction will occur.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

‘Forget a pivot’ — Markets won’t see Fed rate cut boost in 2023, says analyst

Bitcoin, stocks or else, there is now no light at the end of the Fed rate hike tunnel in 2023, says Jim Bianco.

Bitcoin (BTC) and other bulls will not benefit from a major change in United States inflation policy in 2023, one analyst says.

In a Twitter thread on Dec. 20, Jim Bianco, head of institutional research firm Bianco Research, said that the United State Federal Reserve would not “pivot” on rate hikes next year.

Bianco: Japan YCC move “matters for all markets”

In light of the surprise yield curve control (YCC) tweak by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), analysts have become all the more bearish on the prospects for risk assets this week.

As Cointelegraph reported, the move spelled immediate pain for the U.S. dollar, and with the Wall Street open in sight, equities futures were trending down in step at the time of writing.

For Bianco, the fact that the BoJ was now seeking to follow the Fed in tightening policy to ward off inflation meant that the latter was unlikely to loosen its own policy.

“Again, if JAPAN! is NOW hiking to changing policy NOW because of inflation, remind me why the Fed would be pivoting anytime in 2023?” part of one post read.

“The answer is they will not. You can forget a pivot.”

The real tangible consequences of Japan’s decision may only be felt later, Bianco continued. With bond yields rising, Japan should attract capital back home and away from the United States.

“The dollar is getting crushed against the Yen (or the Yen is soaring versus the dollar). Japan is getting a yield again. That should drive funds back into Japan,” he wrote.

A return to lowering interest rates is a key eventuality being priced in by markets beyond crypto, and this is something that simply no longer pays, Bianco said. Despite BTC/USD already down nearly 80% in just over a year in tandem with the Fed’s quantitative tightening (QT), the pain may thus still be far from over.

“Powell is hawkish,” he concluded, referring to last week’s speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in which he sought to steer markets away from anticipating any policy loosening.

“ECB head Legarde (Madam Laggard) is now talking hawkish. Kuroda and the BoJ are (now) making moves that show concern about inflation. Markets may need to rethink their view about central banks pivoting.”

Japan 10-year bond yield curve control (YCC) annotated chart. Source: Jim Bianco/Twitter

Fidelity exec warns of “choppy” year

Other perspectives sought to offer a more hopeful view of the coming year while avoiding implicitly bullish language.

Related: ‘Wave lower’ for all markets? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at asset management giant Fidelity Investments, forecast 2023 as a “sideways” trading environment for equities.

“My sense is that 2023 will be a sideways choppy market, with one or more retests of the 2022 low, but not necessarily much worse than that,” he tweeted on Dec. 19.

“Either way, I don’t think we are close to a new cyclical bull market yet.”

Market cycle comparison annotated chart. Source: Jurrien Timmer/Twitter

In subsequent comments, Timmer added that while he believed a secular bull market had been in place ever since 2009, the “question is whether the secular bull market is still alive.”

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin price hits $20.8K as volatility ensues over Fed 75-point rate hike

The Fed acted as expected, with comments from Chair Jerome Powell still to come as BTC/USD wakes up.

Bitcoin (BTC) saw instant volatility on Nov. 2 as the United States Federal Reserve enacted a fourth consecutive 0.75% interest rate hike.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Fed hints more hikes to come

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD initially dropping to $20,200 before momentarily rebounding to $20,800.

The Fed confirmed the 0.75% hike, which marks its most intensive hiking schedule in forty years, in a statement shared on behalf of the Federal Open Market Committee.

“The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3-3/4 to 4 percent,” the Fed stated, adding:

“The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time.”

Analysts had long predicted increased volatility resulting from the rate decision. At the time of writing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell was still to deliver comments on the move, something markets would be keenly eyeing for trajectory cues.

“Beware, volatility will remain high during this event, fake-outs happen before the real move takes place!” Michaël van de Poppe, founder of trading firm Eight, told Twitter followers.

The Fed’s decision had been nonetheless widely expected, as per CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, with Cointelegraph reporting on a theory that sticking to the script would still offer crypto a shot at further upside.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

How long can the hikes go on?

Should Powell hint at possible slower increases or a pivot in policy, the situation could, however, turn dramatically.

Related: New Bitcoin Yardstick metric says $20K BTC now ‘extraordinarily cheap’

“The market rallying ~13% off the lows was this expected 75 bps. It’s all about the presser now,” popular market analysis account CryptoISO summarized, adding:

“We knew the fed had telegraphed an eventual slowdown/pause. Not a pivot but more of a reassessment as data comes out to see how it is flowing through. 75 bps each time wont work.”

Federal funds rate chart. Source: St. Louis Fed

The statement confirmed that Fed officials had voted unanimously for 0.75%. 

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin trader predicts $18K return within days as stocks wilt post-CPI

The fun could be over at $20,000, analysis warns as U.S. equities feel the burn and the dollar makes up for lost time.

Bitcoin (BTC) cooled near $19,200 after the Oct. 14 Wall Street open as stocks struggled to preserve their “bear trap.”

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Analyst: “Abandon all hope” for asset price rebound

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it came off one-week highs on the day to circle $19,300.

The pair had seen intense volatility on the back of United States economic data the day prior, this sparking hundreds of millions of dollars in liquidations from both long and short positions.

Now, after turning the tables and adding almost $2,000 in 24 hours, Bitcoin was again losing momentum as U.S. equities turned red on the day.

At the time of writing, the S&P 500 was down 1.9%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index traded a gruesome 5.4% lower.

Investigating the status quo, Alasdair Macleod, head of research at Goldmoney, pointed to rampant gains in long-dated U.S. bonds as a key factor in the pressure being felt across markets.

“US Try bond yields continue to soar,” he commented.

“So long as this is the case abandon all hope for financial asset values.”

The U.S. dollar index, a classic headwind maker for risk assets, made strong progress on the day, passing 113.4 before consolidating.

U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingView

With the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) print released, sentiment was now overwhelmingly leaning toward the Federal Reserve enacting a further 75-basis-point rate hike in November.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds of a lower 50-point hike were just 2.1% as of Oct. 14.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

Macleod meanwhile noted that even under existing dollar strength, major world currencies were showing increasing strain, among them the Japanese yen and, increasingly, the Chinese yuan. The former traded at its lowest versus the U.S. dollar in 34 years on the day.

Pundits see BTC bears winning out

Planning ahead, Bitcoin analysts continued to favor downside regaining control of short-term BTC price action.

Related: Bitcoin bear market will last ‘2-3 months max’ —Interview with BTC analyst Philip Swift

Il Capo of Crypto reiterated an existing theory involving a push to near $21,000 before a new macro bottoming sequence ensued.

Closer to home, Jibon, known as Trader_J, saw the current highs petering out at or above $20,000, with a trip to the lows near $18,000 on the menu in the coming days.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Trader_J/ Twitter

For Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, the current spot price was an important line in the sand.

“Bitcoin broke up even more, through which the area around $19.4K is important to sustain,” he concluded on the day.

“Probably long area. If it holds, finally, we can project $20.8K and $22.4K.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/ Twitter

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Biggest Fed rate hike in 40 years? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

The Fed prepares an inflation move that could act as a “sledgehammer” for crypto and risk assets.

Bitcoin (BTC) faces another week of “huge” macro announcements after the lowest weekly close since July.

After days of losses following the latest inflation data from the United States, BTC/USD, like altcoins and risk assets more broadly, has failed to recover.

The largest cryptocurrency has yet to flip $20,000 to convincing support, and as the third full week of September begins, the danger is once again that that level could function as resistance.

The bulls have plenty to worry about — the coming days will see the Federal Reserve decide on the next key rate hike, something that will affect the market far beyond mere sentiment.

In addition, the aftermath of the Ethereum Merge continues to play out, while at defunct exchange Mt. Gox, reimbursements to creditors add another potential cloud to the Bitcoin price landscape.

Cointelegraph takes a look at five potential market-moving factors to keep an eye on in Bitcoin over the coming week.

Fed rate hike “sledgehammer” in focus 

The main event for the week comes in the form of the Federal Reserve’s decision on key interest rates.

After the Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for August came in “hotter” than expected, the Fed will be under pressure to respond.

As such, the market has now fully priced in a minimum 75-basis-point hike for the Fed funds rate and is not discounting the chances of 100 basis points, according to the CME FedWatch Tool as of Sept. 19.

A 100-point increase would be the Fed’s first such action since the early 1980s.

Fed target rate probabilities chart as of Sep. 19, 2022. Source: CME Group

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is due to meet on Sep. 20-21, and will publish a statement confirming the hike and Fed support for the figure involved.

“The Fed will not be easing any time soon, and it’s classic human nature because now we have the benefit of knowing how far in the mistakes they made by easing too much,” Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, said in an interview with Kitco over the weekend.

Risk asset growth since the March 2020 crash had “swung way too far to one side,” he said, and it is now “very clear” that a reversal will take hold.

Crypto will figure in the overall market reset, and Bitcoin will ultimately come out ahead, McGlone continued, reiterating a long-held theory about the cryptocurrency’s future. Gold will also outperform, but for both, pain is first to come.

“Unfortunately, for the Fed to stop this sledgehammer, risk assets have to make them stop by tightening for them,” he summarized.

A 100-basis-point move this week would hasten that process, which is now seeing catalysts from central banks beyond the U.S. after these were initially slow to begin raising rates to combat inflation.

Popular Twitter analytics account Games of Trades, meanwhile, said that it was crunch time for the S&P 500 ahead of the start of Wall Street trading.

“In times like this, with major uncertainty across the board, the Crypto market is not gonna do much without permission from equities,” analyst and commentator Kevin Svenson added.

Spot price sinks after poor weekly close

The past week has seen tailwinds stack up for Bitcoin, leading to BTC price action falling in kind.

BTC/USD lost over $2,000 in a single weekly candle, closing below $20,000 in what is the lowest such close since July, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

The close was followed by a sharp downturn in which the pair fell under $19,000.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

The bearish mood is perhaps understandable — the Ethereum Merge became a “sell the news” event and, along with macro triggers, contributed to a fresh risk asset flight.

Now, analysts are considering the chances of the downtrend staying in place at least until the Fed rate announcement passes.

“BTC has chopped through the weekend, but there’s always potential for some volatility before the close,” on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators told Twitter followers in part of a post on Sept. 18: 

“Huge economic and FED announcements next week will make things spicy again.”

An accompanying chart showed the state of play on the Binance order book, with support at around $19,800 since failing to sustain price action.

The day prior, Material Indicators had reasoned that there was, likewise, little point in imagining that a deeper drop would be avoided. Judging from the order book, bidding action was still not strong enough to support current levels.

Considering when a macro bottom could occur, meanwhile, popular trader Cheds bet on Q4 this year, describing Bitcoin as “right on track” to do so.

“$BTC weekly starting to press range lows,” he added in a further tweet into the weekly close.

Shorts were stacking up at the time of writing on both Binance and FTX, suggesting a concerted effort to drive the market lower by derivatives traders. This, fellow popular account Ninja argued, would not ultimately be successful beyond the Wall Street open.

U.S. dollar coils beneath multi-decade peak

Keenly eyeing a potential macro high, meanwhile, is the U.S. dollar, which has rebounded from losses seen post-CPI print.

A classic headwind for crypto, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) currently sits at just under 110, having consolidated for several days.

The Index hit 110.78, its highest since 2002, earlier this month, while avoiding enduring significant retracements.

Analyzing the immediate future last week, Hyland warned that a “new blow off top” for DXY would accompany a “capitulation event” in risk assets.

A look at the inverse correlation between DXY and BTC/USD meanwhile confirms the impact of sharp upwards moves of the former on the latter.

U.S. dollar index (DXY) vs. BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Ethereum gets the post-Merge blues

In the week after the much-vaunted Merge, Ether (ETH) is experiencing a major comedown from the hype.

In a move that may skew market cap share back in Bitcoin’s favor, ETH/USD declined 25% last week.

Currently trading under $1,300, its lowest since July 16, the pair is seeing bearish prognoses from analysts and traders across the board.

ETH/USD 1-hour candle chart (Binance). Source: TradingView

“Ethereum failing to hold critical support,” Svenson warned as the weekly close failed to draw a line under the losses.

Analyst Matthew Hyland, meanwhile, gave a target of $1,000 for ETH/USD, adding that $1,250 “should hold as some support.”

Against BTC, Ethereum was down up to 19% over the week, with Bitcoin’s share of the overall crypto market cap increasing 1.2% since Sep. 14.

For well-known trader CryptoGodJohn, everything was nonetheless playing out for a “generational entry” opportunity on the pair.

Less enthusiastic was Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin adoption startup JAN3, who noted that while ETH/USD was still above its 200-week moving average (WMA) at current levels, Bitcoin was below its own equivalent.

The 200 WMA functions as an important trendline during crypto bear markets and reclaiming it after its loss as support has historically signified a return to strength.

Dormant Bitcoin supply continues to age

Even as recent price volatility sees an uptick in on-chain activity, hodlers are keeping their resolve, on-chain data confirms.

Related: Here is why a 0.75% Fed rate hike could be bullish for Bitcoin and altcoins

According to analytics firm Glassnode, coins held for a period of at least five years are showing just one trend: up.

In fresh data on the day, Glassnode confirmed that the percentage of the BTC supply last active in September 2017 or earlier reached a new all-time high of 24.8%.

Bitcoin % supply last active 5+ years ago chart. Source: Glassnode/ Twitter

The amount of the supply last active between five and seven years ago, meanwhile, hit its highest in almost two years: 1.01 million BTC.

Bitcoin supply last active 5-7 years ago chart. Source: Glassnode/ Twitter

At the same time, “younger” coins are also on the move, with the 6-12 month bracket seeing five-month highs of its own.

Nonetheless, the long-term trend among seasoned investors is clear when it comes to Bitcoin, as evidenced by the supply portion held by long-term holders (LTHs).

“LTH Supply is the volume of Bitcoin which has been dormant for 155-days, and is statistically the least likely to be spent during market volatility,” Glassnode explained last week as the metric hit all-time highs of 13.62 million BTC.

After the CPI event, as Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin flows to exchanges saw their largest single-day tally in several months.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin ‘bear market rally continues’ after BTC price jumps to $23.4K

The Fed rate hike and comments from Jerome Powell serve to buoy risk assets, with one analyst arguing that the worst of the bank’s “hawkish” phase has already passed.

Bitcoin (BTC) consolidated higher into July 28 after United States monetary policy changes fueled optimism in risk assets.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Fed hike instils fresh crypto optimism

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD climbing to highs of $23,452 on Bitstamp overnight.

The pair had reacted strongly to the latest Federal Reserve key rate hike, despite this conforming to market predictions. Subsequent comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell added to the breakout’s momentum.

“I think the reason this is providing some relief to the equity market is the Fed is acknowledging that there can be an impact on growth, to the economy, based on their policy,” Gargi Chaudhuri, head of asset management giant BlackRock’s iShares investment strategy Americas, told CNBC:

“They’re recognizing there are two sides of this — there’s a growth tradeoff to fight inflation. The recognition is something we heard today that we didn’t hear before.”

Crypto commentators had already predicted that the Fed would find itself stuck between two stools in the form of forty-year-high inflation and the risk of a recession arising from fighting it.

“Who’s outperforming here? Nasdaq & Crypto,” Alf, creator of the Macro Compass Newsletter, wrote in part of a Twitter summary of the week’s events:

“If the Fed isn’t gonna force tighter financial conditions on autopilot anymore, real yields will actually start declining again.”

He noted that forthcoming rate hikes were not being priced in as beating or even equalling the 75-basis-point July move, contributing to “a higher likelihood that ‘peak Fed hawkishness’ is behind us.”

Eyes on $23,500 daily close

When it comes to BTC price action, commentators were thus cautiously optimistic while waiting for the last remnants of volatility to clear the market.

Related: Price analysis 7/27: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, MATIC, AVAX

“Not jumping the gun just yet, but daily closes above 23450 and I’ll start to look for long setups towards 26500,” popular trader and analyst Crypto Tony wrote on July 28.

Bitcoin thus had to match its overnight highs and hold them to asset a change of trend.

On-chain analytics resource Material Indicators meanwhile eyed what it described as a “strong long signal” on the daily close, something which was in the process of strengthening the short-term bull case.

“Bear Market Rally continues,” it concluded in a tweet alongside a buy and sell signal chart.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin spikes above $22.2K as Fed votes for 75-basis-point rate hike

No surprises from the Fed as Bitcoin bulls see rewards for late longs with the press conference still to come.

Bitcoin (BTC) charged above $22,000 on July 27 after the United States Federal Reserve enacted another major interest rate hike.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Fed: “Appropriate” to keep hiking after July

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD reacting positively to confirmation that the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) had unanimously voted to hike the Fed funds rate by 75 basis points.

“The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run,” a press release stated.

“In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.”

Markets had already expected that 75 basis points would be the Fed’s next move. Commentators, however, increasingly considered the implications of the central bank’s balancing act between taming inflation and avoiding recession going forward.

“Watch the Fed abandon forward guidance and rate commitments and embrace data-dependency. This cycle of hikes ends at 2 pm tomorrow. Buy bonds,” David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research & Associates, stated the day prior.

Looking farther out, meanwhile, Wall Street macro strategist David Hunter forecast continued relief for risk assets. More pertinent was a bet that recent lows would not repeat, a potential boon for Bitcoin bulls given the cryptocurrency’s ongoing correlation to equities markets.

“No matter what the Fed decides today (75 or 100bps), the market is poised for a move higher to S&P 4150–4200 & then maybe a sharp, short pullback to 3800 before a much bigger, more sustainable rally to 6000 gets underway,” he told Twitter followers.

“The lows are in.The market not likely to undercut the June lows.”

At the time of writing, volatility characterized spot markets as BTC/USD flitted around $22,000. Fed chair Jerome Powell was due to begin a press conference at the time of writing, his language apt to add further head or tailwinds to the market trajectory.

“In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet that were issued in May,” the press release additionally confirmed.

Traders bet on a Bitcoin boost

Analyzing the market setup, meanwhile, bullish consensus among traders was palpable.

Related: Will the Fed prevent BTC price from reaching $28K? — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Analyst Dylan LeClair noted long positions building on derivatives exchange FTX in the hours prior to the decision.

As Cointelegraph reported earlier, the institutional sentiment was seen to be improving over the second half of July, according to research from analytics firm Arcane Research.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Will the Fed prevent BTC price from reaching $28K? — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin prepares for what promises to be a tense week of rate hikes, earnings and more as BTC fails to reclaim crucial trendline.

Bitcoin (BTC) enters a new week with a question mark over the fate of the market ahead of another key United States monetary policy decision.

After sealing a successful weekly close — its highest since mid-June — BTC/USD is much more cautious as the Federal Reserve prepares to hike benchmark interest rates to fight inflation.

While many hoped that the pair could exit its recent trading range and continue higher, the weight of the Fed is clearly visible as the week gets underway, adding pressure to an already fragile risk asset scene.

That fragility is also showing in Bitcoin’s network fundamentals as miner strain becomes real and the true cost of mining through the bear market shows.

At the same time, there are encouraging signs from some on-chain metrics, with long-term investors still refusing to give in.

Cointelegraph takes a look at the week’s possible market movers in a tense week for crypto, equities and more.

Fed to decide on next rate hike in “another fun” week

The story of the week, all things being equal, is no doubt the Federal Reserve rate hike.

A familiar tale, the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) on July 26-27 will see policymakers decide on the extent of the next interest rate move. This is tipped to be either 75 or 100 basis points.

U.S. inflation, as in many jurisdictions, is at forty-year highs, and its advance appears to have caught the establishment by surprise as calls for a peak are met with even larger gains.

“Should be another fun one,” Blockware lead insights analyst William Clemente summarized on July 25.

The interest rate decision is due July 27 at 2:00 pm EST, a diary date that could well be accompanied by increased volatility across risk assets.

This has the potential to be exacerbated, one analyst warned, thanks to low summer liquidity and a lack of conviction among buyers.

“Entering ECB/FOMC/Tech Earnings amid the lowest liquidity of the year. Market is back to overbought. Bulls, let it ride,” Twitter account Mac10 wrote.

A previous post also flagged Q2 earnings reports as potentially contributing to a downwards move in line with previous behavior.

“BTC and risk assets have pumped higher on FOMC events this year, only to sell off after, is this time different?” fellow analysis account Tedtalksmacro continued:

“June’s FOMC meeting saw the US federal reserve deliver a 75bps hike – the single largest since 1994. More hefty hikes are expected before inflation is ‘normalised.’”

The week is already feeling different to last, even before events begin unfolding — Asian markets are flat in comparison to last week’s bullish tone, one which accompanied a resurgence across Bitcoin and altcoins.

While one argument says that the Fed cannot raise rates much more without tanking the economy, meanwhile, Tedtalksmacro pointed to the employment market as a target for keeping hikes coming.

“Bitcoin will struggle to move past 28k until data deteriorates,” he added.

Spot price fails to nail key moving average

Bitcoin’s latest weekly close was something of a halfway house for bulls, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

While managing its best performance in over a month, BTC/USD missed out on reclaiming the essential 200-week moving average (MA) at $22,800.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

After the close, which came in at around $22,500, Bitcoin began falling to the bottom of its latest trading range, still lingering below $22,000 at the time of writing.

“Observing IF we find support at $21,666 horizontal. Patience,” popular trader Anbessa told Twitter followers in his latest update.

Fellow account Crypto Chase, meanwhile, suggested that a return to the 200-week MA would result in the further modest upside.

“Chopping around the Daily S/R (red box) with an inability to flip 22.8K (Daily resistance) to support. Multiple attempts to do so, but failing so far,” he wrote alongside explanatory charts:

“If price pushes above again and finds acceptance, I’ll watch 22.8K to become support for potential long entry to 23.2K.”

A later update eyed $21,200 as a potential bearish target, this also forming a support/resistance level on the daily chart.

At $21,900, however, Bitcoin still remains around $1,200 higher versus the same point a week ago.

BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp) with 200-week MA. Source: TradingView

Elsewhere, the latest price action was not enough to change long-term views. For Venturefounder, a contributor at on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, a macro bottom had yet to appear, this potentially coming in as low as $14,000.

“Inline with the past halving cycles, this is still my most viable forecast for Bitcoin before next halving: BTC will capitulate in the next 6 months & hit cycle bottom (anywhere between $14-21k), then chop around in $28-40k in most of 2023 and be at ~$40k again by next halving,” a retweeted forecast originally from June reiterated.

Difficulty returns to March levels

In a sign that miners’ troubles due to price weakness may only just be beginning, upheaval is now visible across the Bitcoin network.

Difficulty, the measure of competition among miners which adjusts itself relative to participation, has been declining since late June and is now back at levels not seen since March.

The most recent adjustment was particularly noticeable, knocking 5% off the difficulty total and heralding change in miner activity. That was the largest single drop since May 2021, and the next, due in ten days’ time, is currently estimated to take difficulty down another 2%.

As arguably the most important aspect of the Bitcoin network itself, difficulty adjustments also set the scene for recovery by leveling the playing field for miners. The lower the difficulty, the “easier” — or less energy-intensive — it is to mine BTC due to there being less competition overall.

In the meantime, however, the need to stay afloat remains a preoccupation, data shows. According to CryptoQuant, miners sent 909 BTC to exchanges on July 24 alone, the most in a day since June 22 and a 5% difficulty decrease.

A turnaround for miners thus remains out of sight this week.

Bitcoin network fundamentals overview (screenshot). Source: BTC.com

As Cointelegraph additionally reported, it is not just the BTC price that is giving miners a hard time under current conditions.

Congratulations to the MVRV-Z score

One of the hottest on-chain metrics in Bitcoin has just crossed what is arguably its most important level — zero.

On July 25, Bitcoin’s MVRV-Z Score returned to negative territory after a brief week above, in so doing falling into the zone typically reserved for macro price bottoms.

MVRV-Z shows how overbought or oversold BTC is relative to “fair value” and is popular thanks to its uncanny ability to define price floors.

Its return could signal a fresh period of price pressure, as accuracy in catching bottoms has a two-week margin of error.

At the beginning of July, Cointelegraph reported on MVRV-Z, giving a worst-case scenario of $15,600 for BTC/USD this time around.

Sentiment cools from four-month highs

For the crypto market, the past week may well have been a brief period of irrational exuberance if sentiment data is to be believed.

Related: Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, ETH, BCH, AXS, EOS

The latest numbers from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index show a steady decline from what has been the most positive market sentiment since April.

As of July 25, the Index stands at 30/100 — still described as “fear” driving the mood overall but still five points above the “extreme fear” bracket in which the market previously spent a record 73 days.

Sentiment has nonetheless made quite the comeback since mid-June when Fear & Greed hit some of its lowest levels on record at just 6/100.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin bounces 8% from lows amid warning BTC price bottom ‘shouldn’t be like that’

Hodlers catch their breath as markets digest the prospect of higher Fed rate hikes, but traders refuse to believe that Bitcoin is done dropping.

Bitcoin (BTC) spared hodlers the pain of losing $20,000 on June 15 after BTC/USD came dangerously close to last cycle’s high.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Bitcoin “bottom” fools nobody

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD surging higher after reaching $20,079 on Bitstamp.

In a pause from its sell-off, the pair followed United States equities higher on the Wall Street open, hitting $21,700. The S&P 500 gained 1.4% after the opening bell, while the Nasdaq Composite Index managed 1.6%.

The renewed market strength, commentators said, was thanks to the majority already pricing in outsized key rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, due to be confirmed on the day.

Nonetheless, it was crypto taking the worst hit in the inflationary environment, Bloomberg chief commodity strategist Mike McGlone noted. In a tweet, he contrasted Bitcoin and altcoin performance with skyrocketing commodities, notably WTI crude oil, futures of which now traded at almost double their 200-week moving average.

“Unprecedented Crude Spike vs. Bottoms in Bitcoin, Bonds, Gold — Crude oil futures’ historically extreme stretch above its 200-week mean is ample fuel for inflation to spike, consumer sentiment to plunge, Federal Reserve rate hikes to accelerate and an enduring hangover,” he argued.

WTI crude oil futures 1-week candle chart with 200-day moving average. Source: TradingView

Despite suppressed price action, many were unconvinced that Bitcoin could meanwhile sustain even the low $20,000 zone much longer.

“We have yet to see capitulation in the Crypto markets,” popular trader Crypto Tony told Twitter followers.

“It is close, but doesn’t feel like it yet. Every bounce is filled with optimism and it shouldn’t be like that.”

Fellow trader and analyst Rekt Capital agreed, saying that the sell-off had not been accompanied by suitable volume.

“Strong market-wide selling is going on for BTC,” he wrote on the day. 

“Undoubtedly, Seller Exhaustion lies ahead. Watch for high sellside volume bars. These tend to signal bottoming out after constant selling & precede an entire trend reversal over time.”

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s own 200-week moving average lay at $22,400, Rekt Capital warning that the level could now form a price magnet for weeks or even months.

Losses still do not equal “capitulation” — data

Data meanwhile showed the extent to which panic selling had been taking place in the short term.

Related: Bitcoin miners’ exchange flow reaches 7-month high as BTC price tanks below $21K

Weekly realized losses reached 2.6% of Bitcoin’s realized cap, the highest ever, according to figures from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode illustrated by CryptoVizArt.

Bitcoin’s net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) metric, covering coins not physically sold, also demonstrated a significant proportion of the hodled supply being underwater — the most, in fact, since March 2020. 

According to its accompanying scale, the metric has turning red after falling below zero, i.e., the historical “capitulation” zone.

Bitcoin NUPL vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: TradingView

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.