Raoul Pal

NFTs will act as high-end property during boom cycles: Real Vision CEO

The former hedge fund manager says that top-tier NFTs essentially serve as status symbols and should see significant upside during crypto boom cycles.

Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal believes nonfungible tokens (NFTs) will act similar to “high-end property” in the traditional economy, outperforming Ether (ETH) during crypto market boom cycles.

In an hour-long YouTube video published on Feb. 20, the former JPMorgan executive offered a run-down of what he felt most bullish about when it came to NFTs, including key use cases for the asset class, its underlying tech and its potential performance relative to Ether.

Pal said just as “high-end property” often outperforms the market when the “economy recovers,” the same is likely to occur with certain NFTs during crypto boom cycles.

“So I can take my ETH and put it into a JPEG, an NFT. But why? Well, because much like high-end property and think of a [Crypto]Punk as a high-end property in London or New York or Hong Kong or wherever it is, when the economy starts booming and people have more money, they tend to buy expensive high-end property.”

“And it tends to outperform the rest of the market. And I think the same thing will happen in ETH economy,” he added.

He highlighted that major collections such as CryptoPunks and the Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) have become status symbols in the crypto community, much like owning a luxury house, car, or item from a famous brand that offers access to exclusive clubs or what he dubbed as “mini network-states.”

He saidthat NFTs serve as a “way of owning property in the ETH economy,” adding:

“Humans are ridiculous and we love to socially signal stuff.”

Looking back, the former hedge fund manager said NFTs started to draw his attention in 2022 as he started to “understand the power of what they are and what they can do,” such as being able to transfer “value” via blockchains and automated smart contracts.

He also pointed to NFTs’ uses in the resolution of contracts, noting that blockchain-based ledgers can offer verifiable transparency on what has been agreed between people, while smart contracts can essentially do away with unnecessary third parties.

“Now what’s interesting about the smart contract element of an NFT is the fact that it kind of allows for the settlement mechanism to be automated in code and resolves without the need for a third party so you don’t need the courts, the lawyers, the notaries and the accountants.”

Pal stated that since he got into NFTs, he’s allocated roughly 10% of his ETH holdings into “premium NFTs” such as CryptoPunks and BAYC NFT.

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He suggested that such collections potentially offer more upside potential than downside risk, as they have managed to sustain a decent level of value during the bear market. He also believes the price of ETH is likely to increase moving forward.

“When you look at the price of CryptoPunks and Bored Apes, they’ve remained incredibly stable in ETH terms. Yes, they had a blow-off top and they came back and they’ve traded about 65 ETH forever. And that’s interesting to me because they didn’t fall much further. They had a sharp spike in June in the big crypto collapse. But other than that, they’ve just rallied back and stayed at 65 ETH. So whatever ETH does, they’re just mirroring it,” he said.

Is the bottom in? Raoul Pal, Scaramucci load up, Novogratz and Hayes weigh in

Some high-profile investors have taken the recent market downturn as an opportunity to add to their crypto positions, though others warn there’s still a risk of worse to come.

Some of the highest-profile investors in crypto believe that a crypto market bottom is fast approaching and the timing is right to buy — although one still warns of catastrophic outcomes should prices fall below established support levels. 

Billionaire Mike Novogratz, founder, chairman and CEO of digital asset merchant bank Galaxy Digital Holdings, told a Morgan Stanley conference on Monday that cryptocurrencies may be close to a bottom, with Ether (ETH) likely to hold at $1,000 and Bitcoin (BTC) at around $20,000 to $21,000.

The bottom for crypto would be realized faster than that of United States stocks, which could fall a further 15% to 20%, he said:

“Ethereum should hold around $1,000 and it’s $1,200 right now. Bitcoin is around $20,000, $21,000 and it is $23,000, so you are much closer to the bottom in crypto than you are where I think, stocks, are going to have another 15% to 20% decline.”

Hayes warns of sell-off risk

Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former chief of BitMEX, took a similar view, acknowledging on Twitter on Monday that on-chain data for wrapped Bitcoin (wBTC) and Ether indicated that “liquidations have mostly happened.”

However, Hayes warned that should support levels break for BTC and ETH at $20,000 and $1,000, respectively, we could expect “massive sell pressure in spot markets.”

Pal, Scaramucci loading up 

Macro investor Raoul Pal is taking the recent market downturn as an opportunity to add to his crypto positions. On Tuesday, Pal told his 956,000 Twitter followers that “we are in a buy zone” for Bitcoin, adding he was getting ready to “significantly” add to his crypto positions “probably starting next week and into July.” 

The former Goldman Sachs executive explained that the imminent Bitcoin bottom can also be signaled by the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is at 31, edging closer to its lowest ever at 28. 

RSI is a metric used by investors to measure the speed and magnitude of price changes, which can indicate overbought or oversold conditions. According to Investopedia, an RSI reading of 30 or below indicates an oversold and undervalued condition.

Pal said his framework frequently expects 60% drawdowns over the long-term time horizons, adding:

“In fact, the best way to optimize returns is to add significantly when the market tests the key trend.”

Anthony Scaramucci, founder of Skybridge Capital, told CNBC’s Squawk Box on Monday that investors should “stay disciplined” amid the crypto slump, noting that his fund has continued adding Bitcoin and Ether into its portfolio.

“With incremental cash coming into our fund we have bought more Bitcoin and Ethereum […] So yes, truth be told, people will look back on this debacle and say I wish I had fresh cash to buy into that.”

Related: ‘Too early’ to say Bitcoin price has reclaimed key bear market support — Analysis

Novogratz was less gung-ho about investing right now, taking a more conservative approach and telling attendees that it may not yet be time to “deploy lots of capital,” as the economy may have further to fall. 

“Until I see the Fed flinch, until I really think, OK the economy is so bad, and the Fed is going to have to stop hiking and even think about cutting, I don’t think it is time to really deploy lots of capital.”

Other metrics that could shed light on whether crypto is nearing its market bottom is the Fear and Greed Index, which as of June 15, is currently sitting at eight, under “Extreme Fear,” which was last seen on May 17, around the time of Terra’s collapse.

Bitcoin is currently priced at $22,061 and ETH is at $1,215 at the time of writing.