Proof-of-Stake

Ethereum Shapella upgrade gets new date, making way for un-staking ETH

The upgrade is only for the Sepolia network, with a subsequent upgrade for the Goerli network to be introduced in March.

Ethereum core developer Tim Beiko announced the Shapella upgrade is scheduled for Feb. 28. The Shapella network upgrade will activate on the Sepolia network at epoch 56832.

Shanghai and Capella (Shapella) are the upcoming Ethereum hard fork names. Shanghai is the fork’s name on the execution layer client side, and Capella is the upgrade name on the consensus layer client side.

Ethereum Sepolia upgrade schedule. Source: GitHub

Some key Ethereum improvement proposal (EIP) changes on the execution layer include warm coinbase (not to be confused with the crypto exchange) and Beacon Chain push withdrawals. The push withdrawals will allow validator withdrawals from the Beacon Chain to the Ethereum Virtual Machine via a new “system-level” operation type. On the other hand, warm coinbase could be a game changer that reduces network fees for builders.

Coinbase is the name of the software that builders use to receive new tokens on the network. Every new platform transaction must interact with the coinbase software multiple times. The first interaction costs more as the software needs to “warm” up, with fees declining as the interactions increase. However, with the introduction of EIP-3651, the coinbase software will remain warm to begin with, requiring a lower gas fee to access it.

Related: Ethereum on-chain data suggests ETH sell pressure could be a non-event after the Shanghai upgrade

Major changes to the consensus layer include full and partial withdrawals for validators and independent state and block historical accumulators, replacing the original singular historical roots.

Partial withdrawal means validators can withdraw Ether (ETH) rewards in excess of 32 Ether and keep validating. If they want a full withdrawal, validators can fully exit, take all 32 Ether and rewards, and stop doing the work.

The upcoming upgrade would enable validators to withdraw their staked Ether (stETH) from the Beacon Chain to the execution layer. Moreover, the upgrade would bring changes to the execution and consensus layers, adding new features, making it a key upgrade following the Merge.

Stakers and non-stakers who operate nodes must, however, upgrade their nodes to the most recent Ethereum client versions to take advantage of the Sepolia upgrade. After the deployment of the Sepolia upgrade, the next step would be the release of the Shanghai upgrade on the Ethereum Goerli test network, expected to commence in March.

Proof of Stake Alliance publishes white papers on legal aspects of liquidity staking

Experts from 10 industry organizations contributed to this pioneering examination of legal questions surrounding proof of stake.

The Proof of Stake Alliance (POSA), a nonprofit industry alliance, has published two white papers examining on the status of deposit tokens in United States securities and tax law on Feb. 21. The papers were authored by representatives of over 10 industry groups.

Liquid staking is the practice on blockchains using a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism of issuing transferrable receipt tokens to show ownership of staked crypto assets or rewards accrued for staking. The tokens are often referred to as liquid staking derivatives, which is a term the POSA objected to as being inaccurate, recommending that they be called liquid staking tokens instead. Liquid staking has seen a surge of interest since the Ethereum Merge.

Neither the U.S. Treasury nor the Internal Revenue Service have issued guidance on liquid staking, the POSA noted in “U.S. Federal Income Tax Analysis of Liquid Staking,” but it should be subject to capital gains tax rules under general principles. The paper said:

“Receipt Tokens evidence ownership of intangible commodities in the digital world in a substantially identical manner that warehouse receipts, bills of lading, dock warrants and other documents of title evidence title to tangible commodities in the physical world.”

In line with capital gains taxation, the argument continued, “a liquid staking arrangement will be a taxable event only if there is a sale or other disposition of cryptoassets in exchange for property that differs materially in kind or extent,” which is standardly referred to as “realization” of an asset.

That reasoning is supported with an argument that a liquid staking protocol (smart contract) should not be considered a separate entity, as it lacks a second party that shares in the profits. “If a Liquid Staker does not have a taxable event as discussed above, the Liquid Staker must then grapple with the taxation of its continuing ownership of the staked cryptoassets,” it concludes.

In “U.S. Federal Securities and Commodity Law Analysis of Staking Receipt Tokens,” the POSA said that determining whether or not a receipt token is an investment contract is a gating issue.

It argued that liquid staking is not an investment contract, and therefore not a security, using a case-based analysis of the well-known Howey test. Then it examined all four prongs of the Howey test and concluded that the tokens generally do not meet any of them.

Related: Expect the SEC to use its Kraken playbook against staking protocols

The paper also considers the Reves test, from a 1990 Supreme Court ruling that determined when an instrument constituted a “note” based on its “family resemblance” to an investment contract. The SEC and federal courts have found some crypto assets to be notes. Further, the paper argued a receipt token is not a swap under the Commodity Exchange Act.

A receipt token serves security purposes, allowing the holder to transfer ownership of staked funds between wallets in the event of a compromised key, and commercial purposes, similarly to warehouse receipts, the paper concludes.

The papers were intended to offer “a framework for meaningful legislative codification or elucidation,” according to an accompanying statement. They also were meant to provide a basis for self-regulatory standards.

Ethereum’s deflation accelerates as Shanghai upgrade looms — Can ETH price avoid a 30% drop?

A deflationary Ethereum supply does not necessarily mean a bullish market for ETH, at least in the near term.

The price of Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has surged by more than 40% year-to-date to around $1,750, the highest level in seven months. However, ETH’s price is not out of the woods yet despite several bullish cues in the pipeline, such as the Shanghai upgrade.

Ethereum price bull trap?

Ether’s rise aligns with similar upside moves elsewhere in the crypto market, responding to lowering inflation that reduces the Federal Reserve’s likelihood of continuing to raise interest rates.

At the same time, warnings about an imminent bull trap in the markets have emerged, which may wipe out recent profits. Due to its long-term correlation with stocks and Bitcoin, Ether faces similar risks.

Let’s take a closer look at several potential bullish and bearish catalysts for the price of Ethereum below.

ETH becomes most deflationary since Merge

The issuance rate of Ether has dropped to its lowest level since the network’s transition to proof-of-stake (PoS) via “the Merge” in September, 2022.

Ether’s annual supply has reduced by 0.056% since the Merge. In other words, the Ethereum network has minted fewer ETH tokens than were removed from the supply in the past five months.

Ether supply since the Merge. Source: Ultrasound Money

Investors typically perceive a cryptocurrency with a fixed supply or deflationary issuance rate as bullish in the longer term. 

Ethereum’s supply is currently around 120.50 million, but there is technically no max supply. However, the London hard fork in August 2021 introduced a fee-burning mechanism that added deflationary properties to Ether’s tokenomics.

As a result of this upgrade, the higher the Ethereum network’s transaction fees at any given time, the more Ether will be “burned” or removed from the supply forever.

Interestingly, Ethereum’s median gas price has rebounded to a seven-month high of 27.13 gwei (the smallest ETH unit) in the week ending Feb. 17.

Ethereum seven-day median transaction gas price. Source: Glassnode 

Shanghai hard fork

ETH demand must not drop against a deflationary supply rate for the price to climb. One potential bullish catalyst in the pipeline for Ethereum is its upcoming network upgrade dubbed Shanghai, slated for mid-March.

The Shanghai hard fork enables users who have locked their Ether into Ethereum’s PoS smart contract to withdraw their assets. According to Kennan Mell, an independent market analyst, this increased liquidity could encourage more people to hold and stake Ether tokens.

In his SeekingAlpha article, Mell argues:

“It’s possible that the successful implementation of staking withdrawals will boost Ethereum’s price as new investors decide to buy in right afterward, either because they were waiting to buy until the network successfully went through a risky hard fork to implement withdrawals or because they are lured by a more liquid staking yield.“

Meanwhile, the total value locked in the Ethereum PoS contract continues to rise to new record highs, with the latest data showing deposits of almost 16.63 million ETH.

Ethereum 2.0 total value staked. Source: Glassnode

Crypto staking crackdown

However, any bullish catalysts for ETH’s price could be offset by regulatory crackdowns and unfavorable technicals in the near term. 

In February, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) fined crypto exchange Kraken $30 million for not registering its staking-as-a-service program, which includes Ethereum staking.

Related: Ethereum’s Shanghai fork is coming, but it doesn’t mean investors should dump ETH

Coinbase exchange CEO Brian Armstrong also warned that the SEC might ban crypto staking services for retail investors altogether. If true, such a prohibition could hurt Ether’s demand among U.S. investors.

ETH price hits bearish inflection level

From a technical perspective, Ether’s price is testing a key resistance confluence for a potential pullback.

The confluence comprises a multimonth descending trendline resistance and a 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave), as shown below.

ETH/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

A pullback from the confluence could have ETH’s price test the 200-week EMA (the blue wave) near $1,550 as its short-term downside target.

Furthermore, an extended correction could push the price toward the black ascending trendline support near $1,200 by March 2023, down about 30% from the current levels.

However, a decisive breakout above the descending trendline resistance could activate a bullish reversal setup toward the $2,000–$2,500 area.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

SEC vs. Kraken: A one-off or opening salvo in an assault on crypto?

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission may be focused on custodial staking programs today, but does it also have proof-of-stake blockchain networks in its sights?

In a year of crypto upheavals, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission’s settlement with crypto exchange Kraken, announced on Feb. 9, set off yet another tremor. Agency chief Gary Gensler took to mainstream media last week to explain the agency’s action, which seemed to be an attack on crypto staking — part of the validation mechanism used by a number of blockchain platforms, including Ethereum, the world’s second-largest network. 

The immediate issue, in the agency’s view, was that Kraken had been selling unregistered investment products. Indeed, it was advertising big returns on staking crypto — up to 21%, Gensler told CNBC.com.

“The problem was they were not disclosing to the investing public the risks that the investing public were entering into,” Gensler said. Moreover, the SEC’s action, which required Kraken to shell out $30 million and shut down its staking operation, could have been easily avoided, he seemed to imply:

“Kraken knew how to register, others know how to register. It’s just a form on our website. They can come in, talk to our talented people on disclosure review teams. And if they want to offer staking, we’re neutral. Come in and register, because investors need that disclosure.”

Not all in the crypto industry were totally satisfied with this response, however. “I find the SEC’s ‘all crypto projects have to do is come in and register’ line unbelievably insulting,” tweeted Morrison Cohen LLP attorney Jason Gottlieb. “There is simply no path to registration for many crypto products.”

“The registration of staking program securities is not as simple as filing a form on the SEC’s website,” Michael Selig, an attorney with Willkie Farr & Gallagher LLP, told Cointelegraph. “Public offerings of securities are heavily regulated and expensive to conduct.”

Others view the agency’s decision to charge Kraken as the first salvo in a general assault on crypto by U.S. regulators. “If approved by a court, the settlement marks a potential turning point for cryptocurrency regulation and the SEC’s broader efforts to bring the industry under its jurisdiction,” reported CNN. “The move could lead to a wider clampdown,” speculated The New York Times, including possibly banning staking for retail U.S. investors.

But maybe the industry was over-reacting. That is, staking as practiced by Ethereum and other blockchains as a way to reward network validators may not be on the SEC’s radar screen at all. The agency could be motivated by consumer protection concerns primarily and, in this instance, it wanted to make an example of Kraken, especially in light of FTX’s November collapse and the bankruptcy of assorted crypto lending firms.

“Yes, I am sure they [the SEC] wanted to make an example of Kraken, especially because it promoted the opportunity to make returns of up to 21%,” Carol Goforth, university professor and Clayton N. Little professor of law at the University of Arkansas, told Cointelegraph.

Recent: Binance banking problems highlight a divide between crypto firms and banks

“Kraken set the returns for amounts staked, not the underlying blockchain protocols. […] Honestly, the way that Kraken operated its program looks like an investment contract under Howey,” she said. The SEC uses the Howey Test to determine whether a transaction qualifies as an investment contract, which then requires SEC registration.

Bill Hughes, senior counsel and director of global regulatory matters at ConsenSys, told Cointelegraph, “It’s a one-off action that is intended to not just resolve Kraken’s offering but, importantly, to send signals across the space about what features of staking-as-a-service the SEC believes are problematic.” If another staking service fails to pay attention to these signals, they too can expect the SEC to take action, said Hughes, adding:

“I think the SEC hopes the market gets the message and adjusts accordingly — as they’d probably prefer to move on to other issues.”

“The U.S. Kraken case is primarily about sanctioning its [Kraken’s] blatant and non-transparent behavior vis-à-vis their retail customers, and not for just offering a staking-as-a-service per se,” Markus Hammer, an attorney and principal at the Switzerland-based Hammer Execution consulting firm, told Cointelegraph.

Is Ethereum at risk?

The market didn’t necessarily see this as a one-off action on the part of the agency, however. Ether (ETH) plummeted around 6.5% on the day of the settlement announcement, its largest one-day decline since mid-December. As widely reported, Ethereum moved last year from a proof-of-work to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus mechanism. Dubbed “the Merge,” this technical makeover was hailed by many for radically reducing the network’s prodigious energy usage and carbon footprint. But some, at least, feared Ethereum was now in the sights of U.S. regulators because of its new staking protocols.

Equating Kraken and Ethereum could be a mistake, though. As Matthew Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, told Cointelegraph:

“The SEC’s enforcement action against Kraken is not an enforcement action against Ethereum for using a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism. It was an enforcement action against Kraken for offering a staking service. Those are different things.”

Moreover, Ethereum could continue to function securely as a PoS network even if the SEC were to ban all staking services in the U.S., said Hougan, though he doesn’t expect that to happen. “Activity would simply migrate offshore or be done directly by individuals,” he said. More than enough ETH could still be staked to ensure network integrity. “The main result would be that U.S. investors would lose out on both the opportunity and the risk of staking. The world, however, would go on.”

“The action is not against staking platforms but against staking service providers that organize and operate pools,” Goforth said. “If the organizer controls the pools and the rates of return” — as with Kraken — “then this action does suggest that the SEC will treat the program as involving the distribution of investment contracts.”

By comparison, she said, “if the blockchain protocol allows others to set up pools,” as with Ethereum, “that is not necessarily within the rationale of this order.”

Hughes agreed. There is nothing in the SEC’s complaint that implies that staking itself is problematic. “SEC’s action focuses squarely on the Kraken custodial staking program, which promised a specific yield, pool funds and did not disclose risks or fees. It says nothing about ETH staking or any other chain’s consensus mechanism,” he said.

Ethereum also hosts many use cases that have nothing to do with investing (e.g., elections). Just because the network has moved to a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism doesn’t by itself mean that its native coin, Ether, should now automatically be classified as a security. One has to look at “the nature of the underlying multi-purpose blockchain and respective ecosystem,” said Hammer. Moreover, these will need to be assessed blockchain by blockchain, he added.

An opening volley?

All this may be well and true, but could this really be an opening fusillade as part of a broader post-FTX attack on cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology — and not just “investment solutions” offered by a few centralized service providers?

“The SEC tends to act in an incremental way, bringing new enforcement actions that build upon prior enforcement actions,” Selig told Cointelegraph. “The crypto industry is sensibly concerned that the SEC is focused on custodial staking programs today but will set its sights on staking more broadly in the future.”

Hughes tends toward the more limited view, mainly “because that is what this complaint is on its face. Whether the SEC gets more aggressive and goes after core blockchain functionality is to be seen.”

Blockdaemon CEO and founder Konstantin Richter appeared to agree. “With the complaint, staking itself does not appear to be the issue,” Richter told Cointelegraph. “This indicates that institutional investors that have the ability to stake can continue without using a centralized custodial exchange.”

Hougan, for his part, isn’t quite so confident that a clampdown isn’t coming, telling Cointelegraph:

“Crypto is facing a coordinated regulatory crackdown in the U.S. You are seeing that crackdown in the SEC’s recent statements and actions, and in recent efforts by the FDIC, OCC and Federal Reserve to restrict the crypto industry’s access to the traditional banking system.”

These actions are worrisome but not surprising, continued Hougan. The numerous failures over the past year like FTX, Celsius, Genesis, BlockFi, Voyager and Terra have “pointed to some significant risks in the crypto ecosystem and the need — in certain cases — for better regulation.”

“This is far from the first salvo in a U.S. assault on crypto,” said Goforth. “The SEC has been relatively hostile to crypto assets for years; this seems to be a continuation of that approach […] as it continues to devote resources to case-by-case enforcement rather than offering a genuinely helpful roadmap for compliance, such as by drafting exemptions based on tailored disclosures.”

‘First inning of a nine inning game’

Gensler may have been disingenuous when he invited exchanges like Kraken to just fill out a form on the SEC’s website. SEC registration is an involved undertaking. “It is an incredibly difficult process, often costing a million dollars or more — in legal, accounting, and investment advisor fees — the first time an issuer seeks to register a conventional security,” noted Goforth. It also can take a long time to get approved.

It doesn’t necessarily follow, however, that Gensler will go after Ethereum and other PoS platforms. The agency chief, it might be remembered, once taught a course on blockchain technology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and he knows a good bit about decentralized networks and their purposes. He probably understands that the technology offers all sorts of non-investment use cases, even PoS platforms with validators that have “skin in the game” as they work to ensure network integrity.

Recent: Multichain DEXs are on the rise with new protocols enabling them

Indeed, the Kraken settlement might have only confirmed that “that the SEC still is not clear about when consumer protection regulations apply to the crypto world,” Hammer opined. Before the Merge, both the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission regarded Ether as a commodity rather than a security.

Overall, the jury could still be out as to whether the SEC is engaged here in a limited regulatory action or is instead discharging the opening volley in a wider war on cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology. Most favor the former interpretation, but as Hougan concluded:

“Whether the current regulatory crackdown is going to strangle crypto or ultimately unleash its full potential — I think it’s too early to say. The right kind of regulatory progress could be incredibly positive for crypto, but overly restrictive or punitive regulation would be crippling. […] We’re in the first inning of a nine-inning game.”

Ethereum supply plunges 37% on crypto exchanges post the Merge upgrade

Just weeks before the Shanghai upgrade, the decline in exchange supply is being seen as a bullish sign.

Ether (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has seen a constant decline in exchange supply over the past six months post-Merge. The Ethereum network underwent a major upgrade in September 2022, moving from a proof-of-work (PoW) to a proof-of-stake (PoS) network in an event called the Merge.

According to on-chain data shared by crypto analytics firm Santiment, the amount of available ETH sitting on exchanges continues to fall. Since the Merge, there is 37% less ETH on exchanges. A constant decline in supply on exchanges is considered a bullish sign, as there is less ETH available to trade or sell.

There was a total of 19.12 million ETH, worth $31.3 billion, on exchanges in September before the Merge. The number has now declined to 13.36 million ETH, worth $19.7 billion, in the second week of February.

Ethereum supply on exchanges. Source: Santiment

A major chunk of the ETH supply is being moved into self-custody, while many traders also prefer staking with the Shanghai upgrade just around the corner. Shanghai, Ethereum’s upcoming update, is scheduled for March. The Shanghai hard fork will integrate more improvement proposals for network enhancements and allow stakers and validators to withdraw their holdings from the Beacon Chain.

Currently, 16 million ETH, or 14% of the total supply, is staked on the Beacon Chain, amounting to approximately $25 billion at current prices — a sizable amount that will gradually become liquid after the Shanghai hard fork.

Related: What’s in and what’s out for Ethereum’s Shanghai upgrade

Apart from a constant decline in ETH supply held on exchanges, ETH’s overall market supply has also declined since it turned deflationary post-London upgrade. The deflationary model comes from a fee-burning mechanism introduced through Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP)-1559.

Ethereum burn rate. Source: Beacon chain

A total of 2.9 million ETH has been burned since the London upgrade in August 2021, estimated to be worth $4.5 billion in today’s value.

Ethereum’s Shapella transition is “on the horizon”

The milestone is another step on the road to the Shanghai upgrade, which remains scheduled for March.

The Ethereum Foundation team announced another milestone on the road to the Shanghai upgrade, with the Shapella fork on the Zhejiang testnet moving into the final pre-launch sequence, according to a blog post on Feb 10.

The Shapella transition includes “many features,” and “most importantly to stakers and the consensus-layer, is the enabling of withdrawals,” notes the post, adding that:

“Full withdrawals will be available for exited validators, whereas partial withdrawals will be available for active validator balances in excess of 32 ETH.” 

As per the announcement, validators to participate in withdrawals must have a 0x01 execution-layer withdrawal credential. “If a validator currently has a 0x00 BLS withdrawal credential, they must sign a change operation to 0x01 to enable withdrawals,” notes the Ethereum team. 

Shapella refers to two Ethereum’ upgrades — “Shanghai” and “Capella” — allowing withdrawals on the execution layer, as well as the enhancement of the Beacon chain consensus layer. The move is especially helpful for ETH (ETH) stakers interested in understanding how withdrawals will work, since full withdrawals on the consensus layer require interaction.

Related: Ethereum’s Shanghai fork is coming — but it doesn’t mean investors should dump ETH

The Zhejiang test network, which launched on Feb. 1, is the first of three testnets that simulate Shanghai, which is expected to be live in March, although a specific date has not been released. The Sepolia testnet is scheduled to go through the upgrade on Feb. 28, followed by the Goerli testnet. The Ethereum team noted:

“If you are an Ethereum staker, node operator, infrastructure provider, or otherwise, now is the time to get up to speed on the coming Shapella upgrade, test your software, and pay attention. From here, each public testnet will be upgraded, and if all goes according to plan, mainnet will soon follow.”

Ethereum’s roadmap has several updates coming after Shanghai, known as the “Surge,” “Verge,” “Purge” and “Splurge”. Ethereum switched to proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus in September 2022, following by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler suggested that the blockchain’s transition to PoS might have brought ETH under the regulators’ radar.

Recently, Ethereum co-founder and crypto entrepreneur Joseph Lubin claimed to be confident that Ether won’t be classified as a security in the United States. “I think it’s as likely, and would have the same impact, as if Uber was made illegal,” Lubin said.

Ethereum’s Shapella transition is “on the horizon”

The milestone is another step on the road to the Shanghai upgrade, which remains scheduled for March.

The Ethereum Foundation team announced another milestone on the road to the Shanghai upgrade, with the Shapella fork on the Zhejiang testnet moving into the final pre-launch sequence, according to a blog post on Feb 10.

The Shapella transition includes “many features,” and “most importantly to stakers and the consensus-layer, is the enabling of withdrawals,” notes the post, adding that:

“Full withdrawals will be available for exited validators, whereas partial withdrawals will be available for active validator balances in excess of 32 ETH.“ 

As per the announcement, validators must have a 0x01 execution-layer withdrawal credential to participate in withdrawals. “If a validator currently has a 0x00 BLS withdrawal credential, they must sign a change operation to 0x01 to enable withdrawals,” notes the Ethereum team. 

Shapella refers to two Ethereum upgrades — “Shanghai” and “Capella” — allowing withdrawals on the execution layer and enhancing the Beacon Chain consensus layer. The move is especially helpful for ETH (ETH) stakers interested in understanding how withdrawals will work since full withdrawals on the consensus layer require interaction.

Related: Ethereum’s Shanghai fork is coming — but it doesn’t mean investors should dump ETH

The Zhejiang test network, launched on Feb. 1, is the first of three testnets that simulate Shanghai, which is expected to be live in March, although a specific date has not been released. The Sepolia testnet is scheduled to go through the upgrade on Feb. 28, followed by the Goerli testnet. The Ethereum team noted:

“If you are an Ethereum staker, node operator, infrastructure provider, or otherwise, now is the time to get up to speed on the coming Shapella upgrade, test your software, and pay attention. From here, each public testnet will be upgraded, and if all goes according to plan, mainnet will soon follow.“

Ethereum’s roadmap has several updates coming after Shanghai, known as the “Surge,” “Verge,” “Purge” and “Splurge.” Ethereum switched to proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus in September 2022, after which the United States Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler suggested that the blockchain’s transition to PoS might have brought ETH under the regulators’ radar.

Recently, Ethereum co-founder and crypto entrepreneur Joseph Lubin claimed to be confident that Ether won’t be classified as a security in the United States. “I think it’s as likely, and would have the same impact, as if Uber was made illegal,” Lubin said.

Ethereum price risks 20% correction amid SEC’s crackdown on crypto staking

Ethereum may experience a drop in user activity alongside ETH price, with crypto staking in the crosshairs of the SEC.

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), saw its worst daily performance of the year as the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) stopped Kraken, a cryptocurrency exchange, from offering crypto staking services.

On Feb. 9, Kraken agreed to pay $30 million to settle the SEC’s allegation that it broke securities rules by offering crypto staking services to U.S. retail investors.

In particular, the news pushed down the prices of many proof-of-stake (PoS) blockchain project tokens. Ethereum, which switched to a staking-based protocol in September 2022, also suffered.

On Feb. 9, ETH’s price plunged nearly 6.5% to around $1,525, the largest single-day decline since Dec. 16 of last year.

ETH/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView.com

Will Ethereum staking survive the SEC crackdown?

The SEC’s crackdown on crypto staking begins as Ethereum awaits the release of its key network upgrade, dubbed Shanghai, in March. 

The update will finally allow Ether validators — entities that have locked approximately $25.6 billion worth of ETH tokens in Ethereum’s PoS smart contract — to withdraw their assets alongside yield rewards.

As a result, multiple analysts, including Bitwise Asset Management’s chief investment officer, Matt Hougan, consider Shanghai a bullish event for Ether.

“Today, many investors who would like to stake ETH and earn yield are sitting on the sidelines. After all, most investment strategies can’t tolerate an indefinite lock-up,” wrote Hougan in his letter to investors in January, adding:

“So, most investors stay out of the market. But once that indefinite lock-up is removed, the percentage of investors willing to stake their ETH will explode.“

But doubts have been emerging about the future of crypto staking in the U.S., with Brian Armstrong, the CEO of Coinbase crypto exchange, fearing that the SEC would ban staking for retail investors in the future.

Moreover, some analysts argue that banning Ether-staking services will force users to move away from Ethereum.

Notably, Ethereum requires stakers to deposit 32 ETH (~$50,000) into its PoS smart contract to be a validator. As a result, retail investors often use third-party staking services that pool smaller amounts of ETH to enable validator status. 

“If the SEC bans crypto staking for the public, then a majority of Ethereum validators will have to come down,” argues independent analyst Ripple Van Winkle, adding:

“Because you need 32 ETH to stake. Which means the ETH network is going to experience issues.“

ETH price sees bearish rejection

From a technical perspective, Ether price is positioned for a potential 20% price correction in February.

Related: Bitcoin price hits 2-week low amid warning $22.5K loss means fresh dip

Notably, on the daily chart, ETH price has been undergoing a pullback move after testing its multimonth descending trendline as resistance. It now holds the 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA; the blue wave) near $1,525 as support.

ETH/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Ether risks dropping below the 200-day EMA support wave owing to its negative market fundamentals. Such a scenario includes the next downside target at $1,200, which coincides with a multimonth ascending trendline support.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Rumor has it that Dogecoin could shift to proof-of-stake — What does that mean for miners?

Dogecoin shifting to proof-of-stake would be good for the environment, but what impact would it have on miners and ASIC manufacturers?

There are rumors that Dogecoin could switch from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake (PoS). 

Do I know if Dogecoin is switching to PoS?

No.

Do I think it’s going to PoS? Probably not.

But I love the “what if” game.

As a person who works in the crypto mining industry, I do my best to gauge where the market and mining industry are going, along with how that could play out. If Dogecoin makes a change to PoS or some other change to how new blocks are created, it would have massive ramifications for the mining industry.

Here’s a look at a few options and their effects.

Scrypt mining could be devastated

I’m not going to debate whether or not Dogecoin will or should switch to PoS. While it’s hard to determine if the recent rumors about the potential for a switch are true or not, they were enough to have Bitmain supposedly pause Litecoin (LTC) and Dogecoin (DOGE) miner manufacturing.

The larger question in my mind is, What happens to miners if Dogecoin switches to PoS?

First, Scrypt mining would be devastated. DOGE accounts for over 60% of the revenue with Scrypt mining. Take it away, and every L3+, every LT6 and every Mini Doge Pro — literally almost every non-L7 miner not connected to $0.04-per-kilowatt-hour electricity — would need to be unplugged immediately.

Network difficulty would likely bounce all over the place for some time, while miners with older equipment struggle with the decision to keep their ASICSs on or turn them off. The apex Scrypt miner, Bitmain’s Antminer L7, would see its profitability reduced by nearly 75%, reducing profits to a whopping $4.83/day at $0.05/kWh.

What about the miners that don’t have an industrial electric rate? At $0.10/kWh, the L7 9050M, which sold for around $9,000 a few weeks ago, would earn you $0.72/day.

Yikes!

A drastic change like this would result in those who had recently purchased an L7 being very unlikely to ever recover their investment, let alone generate any profits.

ASIC manufacturers would be forced to drop prices, further impacting their bottom line

The vastly reduced profitability would inevitably lead to the price of the L7 dropping quicker than it did during the COVID-19-induced crypto crash. Pricing miners solely by their expected ROI time, at $5 a day profit, miners would be looking at the L7 having a price tag between $1,825 (12-month ROI) and $2,737.50 (18-month ROI). This reflects a minimum price reduction of nearly 70%.

How quickly would Bitmain react? Would they gradually reduce prices week after week, similar to what Goldshell has done with many of its miners over the past few months? This strategy repeatedly left a sour taste in the mouths of customers as they watched the price of the miner they just spent thousands of dollars on being slashed over and over again.

Or would Bitmain come out and continue their recent trend of pricing miners fairly?

ASIC resellers would also bear the brunt of the negative consequences connected to a PoS shift by Dogecoin. Many L7 miners are suppliers, and retailers sitting on that would instantly need to be marked down by a substantial amount. However, based on their recent history of price-gouging customers, like charging $60,000 for a KD6 that is barely worth over $1,000 today, it’s doubtful many tears would be shed for them.

Many home miners would flood eBay and similar platforms with Scrypt miners. It would be a race to the bottom as desperate miners attempt to recoup whatever value is left in the hunk of metal that can now only be used as a doorstop or display piece if one is desperate.

Litecoin mining would survive. Those L7s would stay on because they’d still be somewhat profitable, and there really wouldn’t be another choice. It’s doubtful that the market would see a new Scrypt miner that could challenge the L7 to be developed anytime soon unless there already is a more efficient Scrypt miner in development. There are some rumors that Bitmain is working on a miner that would surpass the L7.

That’s a lot of disruption from the move to PoS, and we’ve only looked at one aspect of the crypto ecosystem. Numerous other questions and scenarios would need to be considered.

What would happen to network security?

Would the yield from staking cause DOGE to eventually be labeled a security?

Would Dogecoin be lauded for the change, or would the masses flee from what is now the second-largest PoW coin by market cap?

Now for my favorite what if. This option is unlikely, maybe even impossible, but there are different ways it could play out.

What if Dogecoin breaks away from merge-mining with LTC and creates its own mining algorithm?

Related: Dogecoin Foundation announces new fund for core developers

Innovation and competition are healthy for every industry

What if there’s a GPU mining renaissance? After the Ethereum Merge event, there’s a ton of really cheap GPUs available on the market. Those would get expensive really quickly. Mining purists would rejoice as they build their own mining rigs while trying to figure out how much DOGE they can stack. It really would be cool to see, but it wouldn’t last. The big three manufacturers — Bitmain, Goldshell and iBelink — would scramble to be the first to market with an ASIC miner.

Eventually, they’d each have at least one ASIC miner on the market, and naturally, they’ll get more powerful and more efficient over time. The jumps and increases in difficulty would be ridiculous, and just like with Bitcoin (BTC), it would eventually no longer be profitable to mine DOGE with GPUs. But it could also open the door to something the ASIC manufacturing market desperately needs: competition.

What if, following the short-lived GPU mining renaissance, a door opens for another manufacturer or manufacturers to enter the market? Currently, Bitmain, Goldshell and iBelink are the “big three,” and it’s really Bitmain that has a total stranglehold on the market. So, while it’s likely Bitmain would come out on top, what if there’s someone out there who can be first to market and maintain that lead and establish itself as a credible and reliable ASIC manufacturer?

What if that company decided to branch out into other miners and offer them fair prices? To be fair, we do have to commend Bitmain again for the pricing on its recent rollout of industry-altering miners. Reseller markups are still an issue, but that’s another topic. Perhaps this “new” competitor would adhere to the mantra that customer service actually matters. If customers could get over the reliability concerns and the company built a good product, that could happen. Admittedly, that’s a lot of what-ifs.

Alternatively, there’s a money-grab scenario for Dogecoin. The project could go directly to Bitmain, Goldshell and iBelink and say, “We’re creating our own mining algorithm, and we’ll give it to you and you alone. How much money will you give us?”

What would Goldshell pay to bring life back to a company that has taken a series of body blows from the recent altcoin miners released by Bitmain? Or would iBelink go all out to win the rights to make the miner? IBelink just released a new BM-K3 Kadena miner that boasts 70 terahashes — a nearly 75% increase over the next closest model — and it can’t celebrate because Bitmain is about to trump that with the new KA3 that brings 166 THs. In the case of a Dogecoin offer to ASIC manufacturers, how much would Bitmain pay to maintain its market dominance?

No change could be a good thing

What if DOGE chooses to simply continue with Scrypt mining?

The status quo is not that exciting, but it seems to be the most likely outcome. Sure, there may be some changes that will pass a vote, but Dogecoin will most likely continue to be merge-mined with LTC on the Scrypt algorithm.

Bitmain is likely to continue pushing out L7 inventory before launching a more efficient Scrypt miner later this year AND Goldshell will launch a Mini Doge Pro 2 for home miners that will essentially be two Mini Doge Pros in one box. The upcoming LTC halving, along with the more efficient miners, will probably push several older models to shut down for good.

Crypto markets will go up, and crypto markets will go down. There will likely be some other crypto scandal that no one sees coming that will look incredibly obvious in hindsight. The sun will come up, and the sun will come down. Of course, most suppliers and especially resellers will continue to mark up miners and squeeze everything they can out of regular customers.

It’s impossible to know what’s going to happen with Dogecoin in the future, but crypto is one of the few industries where anything can happen on any given day.

Regardless of whether Dogecoin switches to PoS, the crypto mining landscape has always changed rapidly, and Scrypt mining is no different.

Change is coming.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

21Shares debuts crypto staking ETP on BX Swiss exchange

Arthur Krause, director of ETP product at 21.co, the parent company of 21Shares, emphasized that the Staking Basket ETP does not engage in lending.

Switzerland-based cryptocurrency firm 21Shares is betting on proof-of-stake (PoS) coins by launching a new crypto exchange-traded product (ETP) dedicated to staking.

On Jan. 18, the company launched the 21Shares Staking Basket Index ETP, a crypto staking index designed to track up to 10 PoS cryptocurrencies. The ETP immediately starts trading on the local stock exchange BX Swiss under the ticker STAKE.

At launch, 21Shares’ STAKE ETP tracks six digital assets, including BNB (BNB), Cardano (ADA), Cosmos (ATOM), Polkadot (DOT), Solana (SOL) and Tezos (XTZ). The index will rebalance semi-annually in March and September, following market shifts.

With the addition of STAKE, 21Shares and its parent firm, 21.co, now provide 47 crypto ETP products across 12 exchanges in nine countries. The ETPs aim to provide investors with a safe and secure way to gain crypto exposure by offering an alternative to direct crypto investment.

“STAKE provides value for investors by using the ETP’s assets to generate a passive yield that may offer additional returns by contributing to the network’s security,” said Arthur Krause, director of ETP product at 21.co.

The launch of STAKE ETP comes a few years after 21Shares started experimenting with staking ETPs. In 2019, 21Shares debuted the 21Shares Tezos Staking ETP (AXTZ) and launched the 21Shares Solana Staking ETP (ASOL) in June 2021.

Both products experienced a significant decline in 2022, in line with the bear market. However, the ETPs have performed well in the first weeks of 2023, with year-to-date performance surging 38% for AXTZ and 78% for ASOL.

Related: Ethereum founder says he hopes Solana gets a ‘chance to thrive’

Krause emphasized that assets like Solana — which is widely linked to the collapsed FTX exchange — have not had any impact on 21Shares’ products, stating:

“Solana — like virtually all other crypto assets — experienced significant price declines in 2022 but suffered no fundamental impairment that would preclude its inclusion in the index. “

STAKE’s launch comes after some major global regulators expressed concerns about cryptocurrency staking. In September 2022, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission chairman, Gary Gensler, argued that crypto staking looks “very similar” to lending, referring to massive failures in the crypto lending industry amid the bear market of 2022. Thailand’s Securities and Exchange Commission also banned crypto firms from offering staking and lending services in September 2022.

“To be clear, the 21Shares Staking Basket ETP does not engage in any lending whatsoever,” Krause emphasized. He added that staking is a crypto-native strategy allowing investors to pledge assets to support the process of validating blockchain transactions, whereas lending is a traditional financial strategy where lenders are compensated for the risk that assets they lend may not be returned.