price prediction

Bitcoin stays out of fear for 11 straight days as price tips near 24K

Bitcoin’s huge price surge in January has meant that 64% of Bitcoin investors are in profit, according to data from IntoTheBlock.

Bitcoin (BTC) has just clocked its 11th consecutive day outside the “Fear” zone in the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, cementing its longest streak out of fear since last March.

This comes as Bitcoin hit $23,955 at 8:10 pm UTC time on Jan. 29, its highest level of the year. It has since come back down slightly, to $23,687 at the time of writing.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin sentiment is currently sitting firmly in the “Greed” zone with a score of 61, its highest level since the height of the bull run around Nov. 16, 2021, when its price was about $65,000.

Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index over the last 12 months. Source: Crypto Fear and Greed Index.

However, despite Bitcoin’s strong resurgence in recent weeks, market participants continue to debate whether the recent price surge is part of a bull trap or whether there is a real chance for a bull run.

Regardless, the current rally has pushed a lot more BTC holders back into the green.

According to data from blockchain intelligence platform IntoTheBlock, 64% of Bitcoin investors are now in profit.

Those who first bought BTC back in 2019 are now — on average — back in profit too, according to on-chain analytics platform Glassnode.

The average first-time buy price for BTC investors in 2019 was $21,800, which means those investors are on average up about 9% at the Jan. 29 price of $23,687.

Related: Bitcoin eyes $25K as BTC price nears best weekly close in 5 months

Meanwhile, a Jan. 29 poll from crypto market platform CoinGecko has revealed that 57.7% of 3,725 voters believe BTC will exceed $25,000 this week, while only 21.2% of voters believe BTC is primed for a pullback below $22,000.

A CoinGecko poll on BTC price prediction for the upcoming week. Source: CoinGecko

The founder and CEO of Vailshire Capital, Dr. Jeff Ross, also provided a technical analysis of his own on Jan. 29, suggesting that a price surge toward $25,000 in the short term may be on the cards:

Other analysts have called for excited investors to taper some of their expectations, however.

Head analyst Joe Burnett of Bitcoin mining company Blockware told his 43,900 Twitter followers on Jan. 29 that BTC won’t reach and surpass its all-time high of $69,000 until after the next Bitcoin halving event, which is expected to take place in March 2024:

Macroeconomist and investment adviser Lyn Alden also recently told Cointelegraph that there may be “considerable danger ahead” with potentially risky liquidity conditions expected to shake the market in the second half of 2023.

Bitcoin sees record Stock-to-Flow miss — BTC price model creator brushes off FTX ‘blip’

Bitcoin price action since FTX “feels like the world has ended,” says Stock-to-Flow creator PlanB.

Bitcoin (BTC) is now further than ever from its target price according to the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model.

The latest data shows that BTC/USD has deviated from planned price growth to an extent never seen before.

Stock-to-Flow sets grim new record

With BTC price suppression ongoing in light of the FTX scandal, an already bearish trend has only strengthened.

This has implications for many core aspects of the Bitcoin network, notably miners, but some of its best-known metrics are also feeling the heat.

Among them is S2F, which is seeing its price forecasts come under increasing strain — and criticism.

Enjoying great popularity until Bitcoin’s last all-time high in November 2021, the model uses block subsidy halving events as the central element in plotting exponential price growth through the years.

S2F allows for significant price deviations and is not “up only” — but even accounting for these, current targets are far higher than the spot price.

According to dedicated monitoring resource S2F Multiple, Bitcoin should trade at just over $72,000 on Nov. 19, giving a multiple of -1.47.

On Nov. 10, the multiple reached -1.5 — a record negative reading in S2F’s lifetime — as the FTX impact hit the market.

Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Multiple chart. Source: S2F Multiple/ Twitter

PlanB: “Feels like the world has ended”

An alternative iteration of S2F model deviation from analytics platform LookIntoBitcoin produced similar conclusions about this month’s price action.

Related: Bitcoin price may still drop 40% after FTX ‘Lehman moment’ — Analysis

“Price has now strayed further below the S2F line than ever before,” its creator, Philip Swift, wrote in part of an accompanying Twitter post.

“Currently a variance of -1.26 vs. the previous all-time low of -1.21 back in 2011.”

Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model annotated chart. Source: Philip Swift/ Twitter

Nonetheless, PlanB, the pseudonymous analyst responsible for the creation — and now, defense — of S2F, remains cool on its utility.

“It feels like the world ended, but FTX will probably be just a small blip on the long term radar,” he argued in his own tweet.

PlanB has fielded increasingly strong accusations over the model in 2022, these including claims that its basis is fraudulent.

In response to the increasing deviation between target and spot price, he maintained that even a comparatively wide range for price to act within and still keep the model valid was still more useful than no insight at all.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.