PCE

Bitcoin eyes best November since 2020 as PCE fails to move BTC price

Bitcoin remains on track to seal its highest monthly close since May 2022, but BTC’s price is stubbornly rangebound.

Bitcoin (BTC) brushed off fresh United States macro data into the Nov.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

PCE keeps Fed pivot pressure alive

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price movements sticking to a narrow intraday range below $38,000.

After a failed breakout the day prior, hopes were high that the Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation metric, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, would help fuel volatility.

This, however, had not come to pass at the time of writing, with November’s final Wall Street open still to come.

PCE came in broadly in line with expectations — a boost for the Fed’s monetary tightening and reinforcement of declining inflation.

Querying whether interest rates might now begin to fall — the key takeaway for risk assets — financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter nonetheless stayed cautious.

“Another sign inflation is falling but still above the Fed’s 2% target.

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Bitcoin price hits $28.5K on PCE data as macro ‘accumulation zone’ ends

Bitcoin is up $1,000 on the day as bets on $30,000 hitting soon reappear in advance of the BTC price monthly close.

Bitcoin (BTC) recovered recent losses at the March 31 Wall Street open as traders looked for a strong monthly close.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

PCE delights risk assets as with BTC price up $1,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD heading to $28,556 on Bitstamp after the opening bell, up $1,000 from the day’s lows.

The fresh gains followed encouraging macroeconomic data from the United States, with the February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index modestly beating expectations in some areas.

“We are making progress in the fight against inflation,” an official White House statement about the PCE numbers read.

“Today’s report shows annual inflation down by nearly 30 percent from this summer, against a backdrop of low unemployment and steady growth.”

With inflation sticky yet seemingly not troubling markets, these appeared to increase bets on Federal Reserve interest rate hikes pausing in May, data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed.

Risk assets thus traded higher in anticipation. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index were both up around 0.5% higher at the time of writing.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

Related: US enforcement agencies are turning up the heat on crypto-related crime

The mood around Bitcoin was equally buoyant, countering reservations among some traders who had warned of a significant retracement at or near the monthly close.

To the upside, data from monitoring resource Material Indicators showed the bulk of ask liquidity stacked at $29,000 prior to the PCE release.

BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/ Twitter

Popular trader Crypto Tony entertained the idea of Bitcoin hitting $30,000 in the short term, price having held a key support level at $27,700.

Analytics account Skew meanwhile argued that spot buying pressure needed to hold to preserve current levels above $28,000.

Bitcoin “leaving” buy the dip territory

Moving to higher timeframes, optimism was no less in evidence.

Related: BTC price to $22K? Watch these key levels into Bitcoin monthly close

“Bitcoin is leaving another accumulation zone!” Caleb Franzen, senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics, announced on the day.

“Bitcoin’s 24-month Williams%R Oscillator is set to close above the ‘oversold’ threshold for March, which has marked an end to prior bear markets. Bullish long-term probabilities are improving, so long as we stay above the lower-bound.”

Franzen had previously covered the evolving status quo for the Bitcoin Williams %R oscillator across various timeframes as the 2023 uptrend began.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Caleb Franzen/ Twitter

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin price hits $28.5K on PCE data as macro ‘accumulation zone’ ends

Bitcoin is up $1,000 on the day as bets on $30,000 hitting soon reappear in advance of the BTC price monthly close.

Bitcoin (BTC) recovered recent losses at the March 31 Wall Street open as traders looked for a strong monthly close.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

PCE delights risk assets as with BTC price up $1,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD heading to $28,556 on Bitstamp after the opening bell, up $1,000 from the day’s lows.

The fresh gains followed encouraging macroeconomic data from the United States, with the February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index modestly beating expectations in some areas.

“We are making progress in the fight against inflation,” an official White House statement about the PCE numbers read.

“Today’s report shows annual inflation down by nearly 30 percent from this summer, against a backdrop of low unemployment and steady growth.”

With inflation sticky yet seemingly not troubling markets, these appeared to increase bets on Federal Reserve interest rate hikes pausing in May, data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed.

Risk assets thus traded higher in anticipation. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index were both up around 0.5% higher at the time of writing.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

Related: US enforcement agencies are turning up the heat on crypto-related crime

The mood around Bitcoin was equally buoyant, countering reservations among some traders who had warned of a significant retracement at or near the monthly close.

To the upside, data from monitoring resource Material Indicators showed the bulk of ask liquidity stacked at $29,000 prior to the PCE release.

BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/Twitter

Popular trader Crypto Tony entertained the idea of Bitcoin hitting $30,000 in the short term, with the price having held a key support level at $27,700.

Analytics account Skew, meanwhile, argued that spot buying pressure needed to hold to preserve current levels above $28,000.

Bitcoin “leaving” buy-the-dip territory

Moving to higher timeframes, optimism was no less in evidence.

Related: BTC price to $22K? Watch these key levels into Bitcoin monthly close

“Bitcoin is leaving another accumulation zone!” Caleb Franzen, senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics, announced on the day.

“Bitcoin’s 24-month Williams%R Oscillator is set to close above the ‘oversold’ threshold for March, which has marked an end to prior bear markets. Bullish long-term probabilities are improving, so long as we stay above the lower-bound.”

Franzen had previously covered the evolving status quo for the Bitcoin Williams %R oscillator across various timeframes as the 2023 uptrend began.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Caleb Franzen/Twitter

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin price gains 3.5% as US PCE data supports shrinking inflation

A swift leg-up for BTC price action nonetheless fails to crack the week-long trading range so far.

Bitcoin (BTC) rose rapidly later on Aug. 26 as fresh economic data from the United States furthered hopes of a pivot from the Federal Reserve.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Bitcoin bounces but preserves intraday trend

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked a 3.55% rise for BTC/USD on the day, allowing the pair to match highs from earlier in the week.

The move marked a surprise about-turn for Bitcoin, which hours before had seen selling pressure as markets awaited cues from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole symposium speech.

With that speech still to come at the time of writing, abullish catalyst came in the form of the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) readout, which was lower than expected.

Analysts reacted positively, as the numbers added weight to the idea that U.S. inflation had already peaked — a narrative already supported by the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Caleb Franzen, senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics, nonetheless noted that the hourly structure on BTC/USD remained in place despite the uptick. Bitcoin traded in a range unchallenged since the Aug. 19 drop from higher levels.

Analyst Kevin Svenson was equally conservative in his view of the potential knock-on effects for Bitcoin.

“PCE data is bullish. FED uses that data, so now speculators are betting up,” he explained.

“But if Powell stays the course then we could easily dump back down, so just be cautious. Kind of a coin flip now.”

At the time of writing, BTC/USD traded at around $21,500, a key area containing Bitcoin’s realized price.

“Most participants” in Bitcoin are asleep

Analyzing longer-term trends, meanwhile, BlockTrends analyst Caue Oliveira had some bad news for those hoping for a more seismic return to form for BTC price action.

Related: CME Bitcoin futures see record discount amid ‘very bearish sentiment’

Network usage, he noted in a blog post on the day, was still trending down, leaving little room for any bull runs to be supported by strong volume.

“Bitcoin’s New Bull Market Canceled, At Least For Now,” he admitted.

“With no signs of an increase in demand for the network, the resumption in the price of Bitcoin is still far from happening, pointing to a moment of accumulation.” 

Bitcoin median transaction volume (change-adjusted) chart (7-day moving average). Source: Glassnode/ Twitter

An accompanying chart from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode showed median on-chain transaction volume at two-year lows, even accounting for the recent price run-up.

This, Oliveira added, explained a four-year low in exchanges’ BTC reserves, as appetite for trading had decreased in line with a lack of speculative activity.

“For now, most participants remain inactive, including institutional ones,” he concluded

“Good time for long-term accumulators, but for short-term traders, caution is needed.”

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.