Merge

ETH hits 7-month high ahead of Shanghai and Capella upgrades

Ether has broken the $1,900 resistance level for the first time in months and is currently sitting above $1,911.

Ether (ETH) has breached $1,900 for the first time in over seven months, a week before staking withdrawals are enabled in the next major update for the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

CoinMarketCap data shows the last time Ether was over $1,900 was on Aug. 16, 2022, amid a broader crypto sell-off when the United States Federal Reserve was hiking the federal funds rate at a record pace to combat inflation.

The Ethereum Shanghai hard fork, set to occur on April 12, will implement Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP)-4895 — allowing validators and stakers to withdraw staked ETH from the Beacon Chain — in addition to other EIPs, aiming to help increase transaction speeds while reducing transaction costs.

The recent price increase could be driven by expectations that the Fed may ease up on its quantitative tightening efforts as rate increases cause cracks in the global banking industry or by increased demand for Ether, given that staking is slated to be more flexible.

While Bitcoin (BTC) has also recorded gains recently, ETH/BTC — a trading pair comparing the price of ETH to BTC — has increased by nearly 3% in the last week, according to TradingView, suggesting both factors may be contributing to Ether’s price jump.

Shanghai refers to the fork on the execution layer client side, and Capella is the upgrade name on the consensus layer client side that is set to be executed shortly after Shanghai on April 12.

The execution layer is where all the smart contracts and protocol rules are, while the consensus layer ensures that all network validators follow these rules.

Related: 3 reasons why Ethereum price can reach $3K in Q2

It is worth noting that the price of ETH dropped sharply following the execution of the Merge on Sept. 15, 2022, where it lost just under a quarter of its value in one week, according to CoinMarketCap.

ETH price action since August 2022. Source: CoinMarketCap

Despite some analysts and traders suggesting that unlocking staked Ether will create sell pressure, what will occur following the Shanghai and Capella updates is speculation.

Hodler’s Digest: FTX EU opens withdrawal, Elon Musk calls for AI halt, and Binance news

ConsenSys founder ‘bullish’ on Ethereum following crypto winter performance

Ethereum co-founder and ConsenSys founder Joe Lubin says ETH’s relatively stable value through crypto winter is reason to be bullish about Ethereum’s future.

With Ethereum showing resilience through the latest cryptocurrency winter, ConsenSys founder Joe Lubin says he’s ‘bullish’ over Ether’s (ETH) relative stability through compounding macro events. 

Cointelegraph Magazine editor Andrew Fenton spoke to Lubin at the Web3 event Building Blocks 23 in Tel Aviv, Israel, for an all-encompassing interview about the current state and future of the Ethereum ecosystem landscape.

Joseph Lubin in conversation with Cointelegraph at Building Blocks 23 in Tel Aviv, Israel in February 2023.

The co-founder of the preeminent smart contract blockchain protocol touched on several subjects, including ETH’s market performance over the past year. A myriad of macro events, including the collapse of algorithmic stablecoin TerraUSD (UST) and the demise of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, played their role in what Lubin described as a “blow off top” for the ecosystem:

“We do this thing as you know, where we get irrationally exuberant, and then there’s a blow off top, higher highs, lower lows.”

Lubin likened the past 12 months to the early 2000s, where the dot-com boom and bust saw “crazy ideas” explored and driven by “exuberance” for geopolitical, economic and ecosystem reasons. He believes the same type of exuberance may not drive investors in the crypto space in the near future, but sees potential for more great projects and “tremendous innovation”:

“I think we’re in a phase where we have built enough enabling infrastructure. We built scalability, usability, and now we can build more useful use cases.”

Despite a tough year for the cryptocurrency markets, Lubin takes positives out of the resilience of the Ethereum ecosystem and the value being realized by “high profile companies” exploring what can be built within the nonfungible token (NFT) space in particular.

Related: What’s in and what’s out for Ethereum’s Shanghai upgrade

The ConsenSys founder added that ETH’s ability to hold its value around $1200 for an extended period while certain “CeFi” players imploded was reason to be positive for the future of the ecosystem:

“It feels like there just weren’t people who would sell the token at lower prices. And that’s a good thing. I’m bullish from here.”

The Ethereum Merge also played an important role in the market value of ETH in recent months. Part of Ethereum’s move to proof-of-stake consensus was the introduction of its fee-burning mechanism, which saw Ethereum become deflationary for the first time in November 2022.

Lubin also touched on this subject, highlighting his belief that making Ether deflationary was important to ensure the underlying asset increases in value over time:

“There’s money that you spend to buy a coffee. There’s money that you invest. There’s money you can lend and borrow. You want sort of your high economic bandwidth money, like Ether, to be very fresh and to appreciate in value.”

The Ethereum co-founder also said he was confident that the Ethereum ecosystem would not see any further changes in its monetary supply and that a continual contraction of the monetary base was likely to continue.

“I think a slow contraction is reasonable, or at least if you smooth that we’ll certainly have Ether locked in the protocol and we’ll have Ether locked in other kinds of DAO voting systems, DeFi, etcetera. I do think that’s valuable for the ecosystem.”

Ethereum is now gearing up for the Shanghai hard fork, in which an important feature will be enabling staked ETH in the Beacon Chain, with user awards available for withdrawal. Ethereum Foundation developers have been aiming for March 2023 as a tentative deployment date.

Demand for liquid Ethereum staking options continues to grow post-Merge

Demand for liquid Ethereum staking options gains pace in the months following the Merge, according to blockchain data.

Blockchain data analytics carried out by Nansen highlights the ever-growing amount of Ether (ETH) being staked across various staking solutions in the months following Ethereum’s shift to proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus.

The highly anticipated Merge has been a boon for decentralized finance (DeFi) in general, and staking solutions have been in high demand since Ethereum’s shift to PoS. This is according to blockchain data from a variety of staking solutions across the Ethereum ecosystem.

Nansen’s report highlights the impact of the Merge in introducing staked ETH as an out-and-out cryptocurrency-native yield-bearing instrument that has quickly outstripped other collateralized yield-bearing services.

The likes of Uniswap and other automated-market makers and liquidity providers remain popular but pale in comparison to the total value locked in staked ETH solutions. Over 15.4 million ETH is locked in Ethereum’s staking contract, which values the total staked ETH in the top six cryptocurrencies by market capitalization alone:

“Staked ETH is thus the first yield-bearing instrument to reach significant scale in DeFi, and has the potential to both significantly grow and radically transform the ecosystem in the coming years.”

Nansen provides some interesting insights from liquid-staked derivatives data. When Ethereum shifted to PoS, miners were replaced by validators who had to deposit or stake 32 ETH in order to propose new blocks and earn protocol rewards. Users that are unable or unwilling to stake 32 ETH can participate in pooled staking, also known as liquid staking. This also allows users to withdraw staked ETH at any time.

Nansen’s metrics reveal that liquid staking holdings are weighted toward long-term holders, while recently launched protocols are attracting new deposits faster than established services. 5.7 million of the total 14.5 million ETH is staked in staking pools like Lido and Rocket Pool, accounting for over 40% of the total staked ETH in the ecosystem.

Lido’s staked ETH (stETH) pool dominates the space with a 79% share of the total market supply of staked ETH. 52% of the stETH tokens are found in Aave, Curve and Lido’s wrapped stETH contract indicating interest and utility for investors and DeFi applications. stETH has also seen a 127% increase in average daily trading volume since the Ethereum Merge.

Related: 64% of staked ETH controlled by 5 entities — Nansen

Meanwhile, staking pools belonging to Rocket Pool (rETH) and Coinbase (cbETH) have seen the most growth over the past three months, at 52.5% and 43.3%, respectively. Coinbase’s cbETH has surpassed all other assets besides stETH in supply despite having only launched in August 2022.

The growth of Coinbase’s ETH staking option also suggests that everyday users still trust centralized entities and are content earning yield from staked ETH as opposed to more complex, on-chain, yield-bearing strategies.

Arbitrum transaction activity rockets 550% since August: Delphi Digital

Following the Nitro upgrade, activity on Arbitrum has surged and has nearly two-thirds of the transaction activity seen on the Ethereum base layer.

Ethereum layer-2 scaling solution Arbitrum has seen a massive surge in activity since its Nitro update in August, having just clocked around 62% as many transactions as the Ethereum base layer.

In a Nov. 1 report, crypto research firm Delphi Digital noted that as of the week ended Oct. 24, Arbitrum’s number of total transactions has increased by 550% since August, citing data from Dune Analytics.

In an earlier Tweet, Delphi Digital initially phrased Arbitrum as accounting for 62% of all transactions on Ethereum, which they later clarified was “incorrect phrasing.”

Arbitrum is an optimistic roll-up built by blockchain development firm Offchain Labs, aimed at scaling Ethereum smart contracts. It uses Optimistic Rollup technology to bundle large batches of transactions off-chain from Ethereum smart contracts and decentralized applications before submitting them to Ethereum.

A number of well-known protocols use Arbitrum, such as decentralized exchanges SushiSwap, Uniswap and GMX, lending protocol Aave and liquidity transport protocol Stargate. According to L2Beat, at the time of writing it has a current total-value-locked (TVL) of $2.59 billion.

Delphi analysts noted that weekly active users had spiked on Arbitrum, having grown 125% since Oct. 10 to reach a new high of 282,000 in the week ending Oct. 24.

The analysts also suggest that much of the surge in activity is likely driven by speculators trying to boost their on-chain activity in the hope of receiving a larger airdrop for a native token which has been hinted at by Offchain Labs co-founder Steven Goldfeder.

On Aug. 31 the Arbitrum One mainnet upgraded to Nitro, which Offchain Labs claimed in an April 7 post would result in reduced transaction costs while increasing network capacity, adding:

“While Arbitrum today is already 90–95% cheaper than Ethereum on average, Nitro cuts our costs even further.”

Related: White hat finds huge vulnerability in Ethereum–Arbitrum bridge: Wen max bounty?

The low fees have resulted in various players from within the crypto ecosystem wanting to integrate with Arbitrum One, and on Nov. 1 decentralized finance (DeFi) optimization tool Furocombo, capital raising protocol Aelin and insurance protocol Y2K Finance each announced they were live on the popular scaling solution.

On Oct. 13 Offchain Labs announced they had acquired one of the core development teams behind the Ethereum Merge, Prysmatic Labs, which it hopes will enable greater communication and collaboration between developments on both layers.

Ethereum’s Merge won’t stop its price from sinking

Ethereum became deflationary after its September Merge. But for now, it’s not going to make much of a difference.

Ethereum’s long-awaited Merge took place in September, shifting it from a legacy proof-of-work (POW) model to the sustainable proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus algorithm. Many observers expected Ether’s (ETH) price to respond positively as its daily emissions declined 90% with the halt of mining operations. 

However, the expected price surge never occurred. In fact, Ether has been down by over 7% since the upgrade. So why didn’t the Merge drive up the coin’s price?

Post-merge ETH monetary policy

Ethereum’s monetary policy was simply to reduce the token’s supply to 1,600 ETH per day. The PoW model, an equivalent of 13,000 ETH were emitted daily as mining rewards. However, this has been wholly eliminated post-Merge, as mining operations are no longer valid on the PoS model. Therefore, only the 1,600 ETH supply remains for staking rewards, cutting its daily supply by 90%. If the average gas price on the Ethereum network becomes at least 16 gwei, the 1,600 ETH would be burned every day, making Ethereum’s inflation zero or even triggering a deflation.

Related: Tax on income you never earned? It’s possible after Ethereum’s Merge

This monetary policy was a key driver for Ether’s price hike expectations. However, users didn’t consider the impact of marketing sentiment and regulatory changes. The deflationary model was established to impact ETH’s price long-term when the blockchain’s supply growth is in the negative zone.

The token supply growth since the Merge has been -0.01%, which means roughly the same amount of ETH was produced as the amount burned through transaction fees. Although this metric indicates deflation, it’s not substantial for increasing the token’s price — especially when liquidation remains high across the crypto marketplace.

The state of ETH deflation

Presently, ETH is deflating. The number of outstanding tokens fell by more than 10,000 over the last two weeks, while a total of 3,037 new tokens have entered the market since the Merge. New token supply increased until Oct. 8, as Ethereum remained in inflation. Since then, more tokens have been burned through transaction fees, making ETH deflationary.

More than 49,000 ETH has been burnt in the last 30 days, at an average rate of 1.15 tokens per minute. It seems that Ether’s supply has reached its peak, and the supply growth will continue to decrease significantly. So, what happened on Oct. 8 that triggered this deflation for the first time?

Related: Federal regulators are preparing to pass judgment on Ethereum

It was mostly due to a new blockchain project called XEN Crypto. Since its launch, XEN Crypto has burned over 5,391 ETH in transaction fees, making it second on the ETH Burned leaderboard, marginally behind Uniswap V3. The rate of transactions and ERC-20 token minting was significant between Oct. 8 and Oct. 15. The average gas price that week was 37 gwei, more than double the “ultrasound barrier” of 15 gwei, which triggered this deflation.

For now, as long as Ethereum’s gas price remains above 15 gwei, the network will burn enough tokens to keep it deflationary.

Why isn’t Ether’s price rising?

Although the mechanism introduced by the Merge and the current state of deflation is technically supposed to drive prices upward, the timing is simply not suitable. The prices of any cryptocurrency are not just based on its supply and burn mechanism — liquidation also plays a significant role.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has been aggressively increasing interest rates for the past few months. As a result, government treasury bonds have been producing significant yields, and these bonds have much fewer risks than crypto. There’s also more regulatory pressure on the crypto space, and with the recession running wild, short-term investors are stepping away from volatile assets.

Related: Post-Merge ETH has become obsolete

Coinglass data shows that ETH liquidations have been especially high for the past two months. This is primarily the reason why ETH’s price has not increased, and instead declined despite its deflationary status.

Deflation: an impact in the long run

Overall, deflation will certainly show an impact in the long run. If a bullish cycle appears, it will lead to increased network usage, thus increasing gas prices. This will result in a more substantial decrease in the token’s supply, and a possible price surge might appear. Liquidation has been slowing down in the past few days, as ETH prices seem to have reached a sustainable resistance level. However, whether or not a bullish cycle appears soon will depend on the market sentiment.

Iakov Levin is the founder and CEO of Midas, a custodial crypto-investment platform for DeFi assets.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

KYC to stake your ETH? It’s probably coming to the US

It shouldn’t surprise anyone if regulators begin telling node validators to impose KYC and AML requirements on users staking Ether.

Over the last few years, the cryptocurrency industry has been a primary target for regulators in the United States. 

The legal battle between Ripple and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Nexo’s lawsuit with the securities regulators of eight states, and the scrutiny targeting Coinbase’s Lend program last year are only a few high-profile examples. This year, even Kim Kardashian had first-hand experience with regulatory scrutiny after agreeing to pay a $1.26 million fine for promoting the dubious crypto project EthereumMax.

While Ethereum developers intended to pave the way for key network upgrades in the future, it seems like the recent Merge has further complicated matters between crypto projects and U.S. regulators.

Ethereum: Too substantial for the crypto market?

On Sept. 15 – the same day Ethereum’s Merge took place – SEC Chairman Gary Gensler stated during a congressional hearing that proof-of-stake (PoS) digital assets could be considered securities. Gensler said his reasoning was that holders can earn revenue by staking PoS coins, which could mean that there is an “expectation of profit to be derived from the efforts of others.” The latter is one of the essential parts of the Howey test, used by the SEC and other U.S. authorities to determine whether an asset is an investment contract and falls under federal securities law since it was passed into law in 1946.

As you may already know, Ethereum has shifted from the mining-based proof-of-work (PoW) to PoS, requiring validators to stake Ether (ETH) to add new blocks to the network. In other words, this means that Ether could fall under the Securities Act of 1933, which would require the project to register with the SEC and comply with strict standards to safeguard investors.

Related: Federal regulators are preparing to pass judgment on Ethereum

Gensler argued that intermediaries like crypto exchanges and other providers offering staking services “look very similar” to lending. And, cryptocurrency lending is a sector that has been under heavy SEC scrutiny, especially if we consider the agency’s $100 million fines against BlockFi in February.

In fact, Gensler’s latter argument is highly relevant in the case of Ethereum, where one has to stake 32 ETH (worth $42,336 at the current price of $1,323 per coin) to become a validator. Since this is a considerable sum for many, most users are turning to staking providers to stake their digital assets on their behalf to avoid this capital requirement in exchange for a fee.

At the same time, this could mean that, at some point, large centralized providers will increase their control over the network. Thus, by falling under the SEC’s supervision, there’s a chance the agency could prohibit them from validating individual transactions (censorship), which will lead to the fact that such transactions will take more time to be confirmed. That said, confirmation speed should be the most significant issue here, as there will always be some validators that will subsequently confirm the transaction.

In this setting, Ethereum, as one of the major networks for decentralized finance (DeFi), would be the main lever for regulatory policy. Tokens such as USD Coin (USDC) and many others contain blacklisting and blocking mechanisms at the development level, as opposed to the DeFi market in general — so it makes sense that validators and the MEV market will play the role of leverage tools. In the short term, however, this is more of a scare since there are too many validators, and no one can control this process at a reasonable cost.

Regarding the above, U.S. regulators may intend to oblige those node validators under their jurisdiction to implement Know Your Customer (KYC) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) procedures for validating transactions.

Ethereum’s Merge gives opportunities for the SEC to act. How?

In addition to the Howey test argument, the SEC also claims that ETH transactions fall under U.S. jurisdiction due to the high concentration of the network’s nodes in the United States. If this statement turns out to be accurate and finds further development across the nation, this would mean that the U.S. Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) will require all businesses operating on the Ethereum blockchain to comply with KYC and AML requirements.

In practice, this means that customers will have to verify their identities and residencies, as well as provide further information to service providers before they can start using a DeFi service. This significantly increases the burden for crypto projects (and one could argue that this process would go against the idea of decentralized finance). However, regulatory compliance will facilitate trust between investors and providers, which will help attract investment from institutional clients.

That said, it’s vital to mention the SEC’s controversy regarding its approach, communication and decisions about crypto regulation, which digital asset market players have heavily criticized. BlockFi’s case is an excellent example. The SEC announced actions against the company over its failure to register high-yield interest accounts that the commission classified as securities. According to the case’s documents, one of the agency’s requirements was to bring BlockFi’s business activity into compliance with the Investment Company Act of 1940.

As a result, BlockFi ended up on the auction block, and two other companies with similar businesses went belly up — these were Ripple general counsel Stu Alderoty’s words.

Thus, a situation has arisen where the SEC used the legislation of 1940 to regulate modern and not yet fully developed technology, which is absurd.

Related: Tax on income you never earned? It’s possible after Ethereum’s Merge

Furthermore, the SEC’s statement that all Ether falls under U.S. jurisdiction is, to put it mildly, untrue. (If it were, it would be convenient for the agency.) The SEC’s logic here is that the Ethereum blockchain’s node network is more densely clustered in the U.S. than anywhere else, so all ETH transactions worldwide could be viewed as if they were of American origin.

But, according to Etherscan, the U.S. is presently home to a little more than 46% of all Ethereum nodes — not even a simple majority. Based on the SEC’s statement, one could argue that only the European Union should regulate Bitcoin (BTC). Of course, the latter argument is just as absurd as the agency’s claim.

I believe these statements result from the SEC lawyers’ very rough understanding of cryptocurrencies. But, we cannot rule out the previous tendencies of the SEC to regulate through enforcement.

Regulatory compliance will come with a big sacrifice for Ethereum

U.S. regulators are increasingly expressing concerns about the huge sums circulating in DeFi without any control. As the Ethereum blockchain serves as the primary chain for most tokens, its recent shift from PoW to PoS may be used as an argument for their attempts to influence (at least a part of) the decentralized market.

If the SEC and other U.S. regulators succeed in the latter, it could restructure DeFi such that another evolutionary blockchain becomes the leader. But, what is certain in the case of full Ethereum regulation is that traditional banks and investment funds will boost ETH’s usage as an asset for investments and payment means.

Considering all this, providing any timeline is challenging as such statements from the SEC are quite recent and raw at the moment. Let’s wait and see what further actions U.S. regulators will take in the near future and whether they will impact the KYC and AML procedures of the crypto space as well.

Slava Demchuk is the CEO and co-founder of AMLBot, a company that monitors a global database of cryptocurrency addresses to assist businesses and private users with compliance requirements.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Ethereum price eyes 35% rally after 6,000 ETH gets burned in one week

A new crypto project aiming to mint tokens from burning Ether is behind Ethereum’s deflationary turn.

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), looks ready to undergo a massive rally due to a mix of technical and fundamental factors.

From a technical perspective, ETH’s price now eyes a 35% rebound by the end of October after holding testing a key support level. This level is a rising trendline that has capped Ether’s downside attempts since June 2022, as shown below.

ETH/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

In other words, traders have shown interest in buying Ethereum tokens near this level in recent weeks. Meanwhile, the accumulation sentiment has prompted the price to rise toward another significant level — a horizontal trendline resistance near $1,800, about 35% above the current price. 

Ether supply drops by 6K ETH

The bullish technical outlook for Ether takes further take cues from its depleting supply in recent days.

Ether supply has dropped by nearly 6,000 ETH, or around $7.9 million, since Oct. 8. That marks the Ethereum network’s first deflationary move — where more ETH is being destroyed than created — since its switch from proof-of-work (PoW) to proof-of-stake (PoS) via the Merge one month ago. 

Ethereum supply since Merge. Source: Ultrasound.Money

Users must pay so-called gas fees to validators to confirm their on-chain Ethereum transactions. Historically, more Ethereum network traffic resulted in higher gas fees and more revenue for validators.

But after the August 2021 EIP-1559 update, a portion of the gas fee is permanently removed from Ether circulation. Simply put, more ETH gets burned in a high-demand environment.

The same started happening after Oct. 8, with evidence showing that a new crypto project named XEN Crypto is increasing network traffic. In the last seven days, XEN Crypto has contributed to the burning of 4,490 ETH tokens against 16,690.52 ETH tokens.

Ethereum burn leaderboard. Source: Ultrasound.Money

XEN Crypto started over the weekend with no supply.

Still, it was free to mint, requiring users to only pay ETH gas fees. In other words, a new project made Ether deflationary for the first time since Merge, currently comprising over 40% of all Ethereum transactions.

ETH price long-term outlook remains bearish

Ethereum’s outlook for the long term tilts bearish, nevertheless, due to constant macro warnings led by the United State Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes to hot inflation. Ether remains susceptible to these risks owing to its consistently positive correlation with U.S. equities.

ETH/USD and Nasdaq Composite daily correlation coefficient. Source: TradingView

Thus, a drop below Ether’s current rising trendline support — as explained above — could mean further declines in the event of a technical breakdown, as shown in the chart below.

ETH/USD weekly price chart featuring ascending triangle breakdown. Source: TradingView

Ascending Triangles are continuation patterns that resolve after the price breaks out in the direction of its previous trend. In ETH’s case, the prevailing trend is downward, suggesting that the token’s next course will be bearish if it breaks below the triangle’s rising trendline support.

Related: Why is the crypto market down today?

As a rule, an ascending triangle breakdown prompts the price to fall to a level at a length equal to the triangle’s height. Therefore, ETH’s profit target comes to be near $750, down approximately 40% from today’s price.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Ethereum open interest hits $7.7B, raising the chance of a short squeeze above $1.5K

The Ether futures premium remains negative, while options markets are pricing similar risks for bulls and bears.

Traders’ sentiment about Ether (ETH) has noticeably improved as the price rallied 7.5% from Oct. 2 to 6, but the price recapturing the $1,350 level was not compelling enough to trigger any bullish activity from derivatives traders.

Ether price is still 32% below the $2,000 level last seen on Aug. 14 and the network’s average transaction fee stood near $2 after the Merge.

The most significant upgrade on the Ethereum chain happened on Sept. 15, switching from energy-intensive mining technology to a set of validators required to deposit 32 ETH in staking.

Although necessary to implement future sharding or parallel processing capability, the Merge was not designed to solve scalability issues in the current phase. Consequently, the Ethereum network holds none of the top-5 decentralized applications by users, according to DappRadar.

For this reason, analysis of derivatives data is valuable in understanding how confident investors are about Ether sustaining the rally and heading toward $1,500 or higher.

Post-Merge sentiment remains neutral-to-bearish

Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets. But quarterly futuresare professional traders’ preferred instruments because they prevent the perpetual fluctuation of contracts’ funding rates.

In neutral-to-bullish markets, these fixed-month contracts usually trade at a slight premium to spot markets because investors demand more money to withhold the settlement. This situation is not exclusive to crypto, and futures contracts should trade at a 4% to 8% annualized premium in healthy markets.

Ether 3-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

The Ether futures premium has been negative since the Merge on Sept. 15, indicating excessive demand for bearish bets, an alarming situation known as “backwardation.”

To exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument, traders must also analyze the Ether options markets. The 25% delta skew shows when market makers and arbitrage desks are overcharging for upside or downside protection.

In bullish markets, options investors give higher odds for a price pump, causing the skew indicator to fall below -12%. On the other hand, the market’s generalized panic induces a 12% or higher positive skew.

Ether 30-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas

The 30-day delta skew stood above the 12% threshold until Oct. 3, indicating traders’ unwillingness to take downside risks using ETH options. However, the sentiment quickly changed to a neutral level on Oct. 4 as market makers and arbitrage desks have since started to price similar odds of a price hike or downturn for ETH.

Related: Report, on-chain data points to crypto consolidation in Q3

A rally toward $1,500 is not expected, but is possible

Derivatives metrics suggest that pro traders are not confident in Ether testing the $1,500 resistance anytime soon. Futures contracts have been trading lower than spot market prices, indicating a lack of interest in leverage longs (buyers). Meanwhile, Ether option traders continue to price similar bull and bear cases, showing little conviction on the recent 7.5% price gains.

There are $7.7 billion in Ether contracts futures open interest, and judging by the prevalence of bearish bets, a surprise rally could potentially cause a massive short squeeze.

While leverage offers a great way to increase exposure and gains, an unexpected price swing could lead to forced liquidations tha further strengthen the price move.

Ether bulls might have difficulty gaining terrain because macroeconomic and regulatory uncertainties dictate the trend. With that said, a surprise 10% pump toward $1,500 would take bears by surprise and trigger liquidations on short positions.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

7 Ethereum developers would like to sell you on the Merge

Ethereum’s Merge became final on Sept. 15, 2022. Seven developers are here to tell you why they believe it made Ethereum more sustainable, energy-efficient, and democratic.

Since the founding of Ethereum in 2015, an animating question that plagued the community was answered at exactly 06:42:59 UTC on Thursday, Sept. 15, 2022.

Ethereum, the technological layer where a new class of applications and self-organizing organizations are being built, eliminated its reliance on an energy-intensive consensus mechanism called proof-of-work (PoW) to a more sustainable and secure consensus mechanism called proof-of-stake (PoS).

In what has been described as one of the most significant milestones in blockchain history, the Merge has set the template for how Ethereum will continue to be the most powerful, most used, most credibly neutral, and most energy-efficient blockchain network globally.

Related: Biden is hiring 87,000 new IRS agents — And they’re coming for you

The Merge is one of those historical moments where decades from now, people are going to remember what they were doing, where and with whom, whether they were part of the 41,000+ people who tuned in as blocks finalized or all the physical gatherings worldwide aimed to celebrate the occasion, which also saw Ethereum go from somewhat random Ethereum block times to predictable 12-second intervals.

More than 120 developers from all corners of the globe, connected only by their Wi-Fi signal and a passion for developing what they believe is the future of the internet, have come together to design and implement the Ethereum Merge. Their collective action to enact what is likely the largest decarbonization of any industry in history provides a compelling model that future industry and social overhauls might adopt.

Diversity and openness on the blockchain

One ethos that runs throughout the Ethereum ecosystem is its diversity and openness. As a result of the Merge, Ethereum has laid the foundation for a successful transition from a monolithic blockchain to a more modular blockchain that incorporates several execution layer clients, consensus layer clients and layer-2 networks. This robust architecture ensures a healthy and scalable network where rewards for participation are more equitably distributed.

Related: The market isn’t surging anytime soon — So get used to dark times

PoS not only democratizes network participation by requiring lower resource requirements for validator nodes but is also constructed such that economies of scale do not apply in the same way they do for PoW mining. While there will still be players with more nodes, running one will be less compute-intensive, and each node will have an equal chance at rewards.

In addition to a very diverse system, the technical barriers to scalability are removed. Unlike PoW, with PoS, Ethereum can efficiently partition data processing and reach scale and throughput developers expect from a database or cloud service. This makes Ethereum more egalitarian and radically evolved to support the next generation of Web3 creators and developers.

A greener Ethereum

Ethereum is the first time in history that a technology of its scale has reduced its emissions through innovation and redesign, not carbon credit offsets.

The location of core Ethereum developers leading up to the Merge. Source: ConsenSys

Ethereum, in the past, has sacrificed sustainability and scalability due to its chosen security mechanism. This tradeoff was at odds with the adoption levels the chain has seen. However, with the shift to PoS, Ethereum has become the most popular carbon-friendly blockchain, reducing its network’s electricity consumption and carbon footprint by over 99.988% and 99.992%, respectively.

With a more sustainable Ethereum, artists no longer need to contend with ethical decisions around the energy usage of PoW systems or even offset their nonfungible tokens (NFTs) with carbon credits. Ethereum is now the most sustainable home for the NFT revolution to thrive.

An improved security model for protecting blockchains

One overlooked feature in the security guarantees that proof-of-stake offers is that 51% attacks are exponentially more costly for anyone attempting them than on PoW. For example, if someone has the means to perform a 51% attack on a PoW network, these attacks can be continued even after a soft fork.

Related: Post-Merge ETH has become obsolete

But in Ethereum PoW, baked into the code is something called “slashing.” With slashing, when a validator is caught acting provably destructively, the validator is forced to exit, penalizing some or all of its financial stake. The result is that an attacker cannot attack the chain without incurring a significant financial loss. PoW does not have an equally impactful in-protocol financial disincentive.

The future

Today, more than ever, there is a heightened sense of disempowerment. People feel disconnected and powerless over the decisions that govern their lives. Time and time again, actors enshrined with responsibility have failed; trust has been broken, and there seems to be no way forward.

Ethereum promises to flip the power dynamics and empower the individual by allowing any individual, enterprise or government to run validators, trustlessly build applications or coordinate themselves; it enables a sense of ownership, confidence and trust that is harder to achieve in systems that are widely adopted in society today.

The Merge strongly signals that Ethereum is for everyone to sustainably create value without sacrificing security, energy efficiency and democratized access.

We hope that this example of collaboration of hundreds of developers from all over the world, often working voluntarily, to improve a public good could inspire other industries.

Ben Edgington advises on Eth2 across ConsenSys. Current product owner for Teku, an Ethereum 2.0 client primarily designed for enterprise and institutional stakers, Ben was head of engineering for information systems at Hitachi Europe prior to joining ConsenSys. He holds a B.A. (Hons), M.A., M.Sc. and M.Maths (all in Mathematics) from the University of Cambridge.
Hsiao-Wei Wang has been working on Ethereum consensus protocol R&D at the Ethereum Foundation Research Team since mid-2017. Her contributions to the Merge include consensus research, specifications and memes development.
Lion Dapplion has been involved in Ethereum since early 2018, building FOSS at the infrastructure layer with DAppNode. His contribution to the Merge has been leading Lodestar the Typescript consensus client and pushing light clients at the consensus layer, plus other standardizing initiatives.
Marius van der Wijden is a software developer working with the Ethereum Foundation on go-Ethereum since 2020. Before that, he worked on scalability solutions (state channels) for blockchains. He wrote parts of the implementation of the Merge in go-Ethereum and played a role in coordinating testing efforts. He also tried to get the community involved with the #TestingTheMerge initiative.
Mikhail Kalinin has been working full-time on Ethereum since 2015, initially as a core developer on an early mainnet client, and for the last three years in Ethereum research and development. He leads the TXRX research team at ConsenSys. Developing and delivering the Merge on the Ethereum mainnet has been his main focus for the last two years. He is currently looking for a new area of Ethereum protocol development where he can make an impact.
Parithosh Jayanth is from Bangalore, India and moved to Germany in 2016. He joined the Ethereum Foundation in 2020, aspiring to shape Ethereum upgrades because he was intrigued by its research challenges. He was responsible for setting up, coordinating and debugging test networks.
Terence Tsao of Prysmatic Labs works on Prysm, a consensus layer client implementation written in Go. He was one of the earlier implementors for the Merge who began experimenting with consensus-layer code and execution-engine API so it could drive consensus for the execution layer client.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Ethereum may now be more vulnerable to censorship — Blockchain analyst

With Ethereum validators being required to stake 32 ETH, Ethereum could become more centralized and susceptible to censorship from governments.

Ethereum’s upgrade to proof-of-stake (PoS) may make it more vulnerable to government intervention and censorship, according to the lead investigator of Merkle Science. 

Speaking to Cointelegraph following the Ethereum Merge, Coby Moran, a former FBI analyst and the lead investigator for crypto compliance and forensic firm Merkle Science, expressed his thoughts on some of the risks posed by Ethereum’s transition to PoS.

While centralization issues have been broadly discussed leading up to the Merge, Moran suggested the prohibitive cost of becoming a validator could result in the consolidation of validator nodes to the bigger crypto firms like Binance, Coinbase and Kraken.

In order to become a full validator for the Ethereum network, one is required to stake 32 Ether (ETH), which is worth around $47,000 at the time of writing.

A pre-Merge report from blockchain analytics platform from Nansen earlier this month revealed that 64% of staked ETH is controlled by just five entities.

Source: Nansen

Moran continued to say that these larger institutions will be “subject to the whims of governments in the world,” and when validator nodes identify sanctioned addresses they can “be slashed rewards and then eventually kicked off the system,” with businesses prevented from interacting with them:

“Either you will comply and you will siphon off that sort of interaction […] or you run the risk of being fined, being scrutinized, or potentially being sanctioned yourself.”

Vitalik Buterin spoke about this risk in an Aug. 18 developer call, suggesting one of the forms censorship could take is validators choosing to exclude or filter sanctioned transactions.

Vitalik went on to say that as long as some validators do not comply with the sanctions, then these transactions would eventually be picked up in later blocks and the censorship would only be temporary.

On Aug. 8, crypto mixer Tornado Cash became the first smart contract sanctioned by a United States government body.

Related: Rep. Emmer demands an explanation of OFAC’s Tornado Cash sanction from Sec. Yellen

In reaction, various entities have complied with the sanctions and prevented the sanctioned addresses from accessing their products and services.

The development has had a large effect on the Ethereum community, with EthHub co-founder Anthony Sassano tweeting on Aug. 16 that he would consider Ethereum a failure and move on if permanent censorship occurs.