Market Update

UNI, MATIC and AAVE surge after Bitcoin price bounces back above $20K

Bitcoin, Uniswap, Polygon and Aave turned green just a day after the highest CPI print in over 40 years.

Crypto investors found cause for celebration on July 14 as the market experienced a positive trading session just one day after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) posted a June print of 9.1%, its highest level since 1981. 

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

The move higher in the market wasn’t entirely unexpected for seasoned traders who have become familiar with a one to two-day bounce in asset prices following the most recent CPI prints. These traders also know there’s nothing to get too excited about, as the bounces have typically been followed by more downside once people realize that the high inflation print is a negative development.

Nevertheless, the green in the market is a welcome sight after the rough start to 2022.

Top 5 coins with the highest 24-hour price change. Source: CoinMarketCap

According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, the biggest gainers over the past 24 hours were Uniswap (UNI), Polygon (MATIC) and Aave (AAVE).

Robinhood lists UNI

Uniswap, the top decentralized exchange (DEX) by volume, saw its token price head higher on July 13 after hitting a low of $5.23. The token has since climbed 36% to hit a daily high of $7.11 on July 14 amid a 104% spike in its 24-hour trading volume to $449 million.

UNI/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The sharp turnaround in UNI price and trading volume comes as the popular brokerage firm Robinhood announced that the UNI token is now available to trade on the platform, exposing the asset to a large cohort of new buyers who don’t have accounts on other cryptocurrency exchanges.

Disney news provides a boost for MATIC

Polygon is one of the top layer-2 scaling solutions for the Ethereum network that offers a faster- and lower-fee transaction experience for users and protocols.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that after briefly dipping to a low of $0.52 on July 13, the price of MATIC spiked 36% to hit a daily high at $0.707 on July 14 on the back of a 120% spike in its 24-hour trading volume.

MATIC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

MATIC’s price increase follows an announcement that the protocol was the only blockchain selected by Disney to be part of its 2022 Accelerator Program.

Related: Bitcoin analysts weigh sub-$17.5K dip after ‘weak’ BTC price bounce

Aave rallies on stablecoin developments

Aave, a popular decentralized finance platform, is a lending and borrowing protocol that currently holds $5.63 billion in total value locked (TVL), making it the second-ranked DeFi platform by TVL behind MakerDAO.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that over the past 24-hours, the price of AAVE has rallied 38.5% from a low of $67.10 to hit a daily high of $93 in the afternoon hours on July 14.

AAVE/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Aave sparked excitement within its community on July 7 when it revealed plans to release its own GHO stablecoin, which will be a collateral-backed stablecoin that is native to the Aave ecosystem.

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $927 billion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 42.6%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

3 reasons why Bitcoin is struggling to flip $20K to support

BTC continues to sell-off, but analysts say investor sentiment could reverse when inflation peaks or traders feel that the situation with insolvent DeFi platforms is resolved.

The positive gains recorded in the first ten days of July have all but disappeared on July 13 as Bitcoin (BTC) and the wider market slid back toward new yearly lows.

Subdued action in the market can be traced back to a variety of factors, ranging from July 13’s record-high Consumer Price Index print and a raging U.S. dollar that recently hit its highest level since October 2002.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that July 13 marked the fifth consecutive day of a declining BTC price, which hit an intra-day low at $18,910, following the declines across the major stock market indices.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

As the world awaits a catalyst that can bring positive momentum back into global financial markets, here is what several analysts have to say about what’s next for Bitcoin.

Was Bitcoin’s latest surge the result of wash trading?

Bitcoin’s gains over the past week had sparked a new wave of optimism for some traders, but that optimism is likely to fade in the near term.  Data from Arcane Research shows that a majority of the momentum came from the removal of trading fees for certain Bitcoin pairs on the Binance cryptocurrency exchange.

Real Bitcoin daily volume (7-day average). Source: Arcane Research

According to Arcane Research, after the fee was removed, trading volumes on the exchange surged and this can be most likely attributed to “wash trading from traders seeking to exploit the fee removal to reach higher fee tiers.”

When looking at the crypto exchange ecosystem as a whole, however, activity remains subdued which is indicative of diminished interest in buying cryptos at the present moment.

Arcane Research said,

“All other exchanges saw muted trading volume last week, with the seven-day average trading volume sitting near 1-year lows, illustrating that the organic trading activity in the market is very muted at the moment.”

Extreme fear persists

Further evidence highlighting the lack of interest in buying Bitcoin can be found from the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which is currently experiencing a “record-long 68-day streak” in the extremely fearfully territory.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative

As noted by Arcane Research, the spike to a score of 24 on July 10 was largely influenced by Binance’s decision to remove trading fees, which “led the metric to overstate the current market sentiment fearfulness.”

After the novelty of fee-less Bitcoin trading on the top exchange subsided and volumes returned to normal, the Fear and Greed index has descended back into the extreme fear zone.

Exchange outflows provide further evidence of the state of the market. Following the liquidation of Three Arrows Capital and the freezing of funds at platforms like Celsius, the rate that users have been pulling BTC off exchanges hit its highest level ever on June 26.

Related: 3 key metrics suggest Bitcoin and the wider crypto market have further to fall

Leveraged liquidity increases above $25,000

A final bit of insight into the factors keeping Bitcoin in its current trading range was offered by researchers at Jarvis Labs, who provided the following chart showing the dark bands of liquidity that exist below $18,000 and above $25,000.

Bitcoin liquidation map. Source: Jarvis Labs

According to Jarvis Labs, the appearance of highly leveraged liquidity signaled the possibility that BTC could make a run for $25,000 barring any unforeseen negative developments.

Jarvis Labs said,

“The caveat here is that for price to threaten that level, no more skeletons can get exposed within the cryptocurrency market, otherwise more forced selling can be triggered.”

While the way the price of BTC will move remains to be seen, the one thing that traders should prepare themselves for is the potential for increased volatility in the months ahead as rising global tensions, surging inflation and widespread pessimism suggest that the crypto market and world at large may be in for an extended bear market.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Analysts say Bitcoin range ‘consolidation’ is most likely until a ‘macro catalyst’ emerges

BTC on-chain metrics and technical indicators are trading near historical bottoms, but analysts say a new “macro catalyst” could prove the current range is not the bottom.

From a historical perspective, the loss in value realized across the cryptocurrency market over the past several months has been one for the record books and the total cryptocurrency market cap has declined from $3 trillion to $991 million. 

June was especially painful for investors after the price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell nearly 40% to mark one of its worst calendar months on record according to a recent report from cryptocurrency research firm Delphi Digital.

BTC/USD monthly candles vs. MoM% change. Source: Delphi Digital

In light of the strong market correction, a number of BTC price and on-chain metrics have begun to reach levels similar to those seen during previous market bottoms, but this doesn’t mean traders should expect a turnaround anytime soon because history shows that periods of weakness can drag on for months on end.

Macro headwinds weigh on BTC price

One of the most significant factors weighing on cryptocurrencies and other risk assets has been the strength of the United States dollar.

DXY index YoY% change vs. BTC/USD price YoY% change. Source: Delphi Digital

Combined with rising inflation and falling economic indicators, DXY strength is a signal that an economic slowdown is all but inevitable, with forecasts now predicting a recession in early to mid-2023.

Against this backdrop, BTC now finds itself attempting to form a local bottom around the 2017 cycle high near $20,000, “the last clear structural support on the high timeframe bitcoin chart.”

BTC/USD price-performance 1-week chart. Source: Delphi Digital

This current cycle marks the first time in Bitcoin’s history that its price has fallen below the all-time high set during a previous bull market cycle. Should BTC fail to hold support near $20,000, Delphi Digital pointed to an expected “support around ~$15K, and then ~$9K to $12K if that level failed to hold.”

While those estimates may seem bleak, it should be noted that the BTC price fell roughly 85% from peak to trough during each of the previous two major bear markets.

If the same were to occur during the current bear market cycle, that would put BTC at $10,000, marking another 50% drawdown from the current levels and falling in line with the 2018 to 2019 price range.

For this reason, analysts at Delphi Digital believe that “there’s still more pain ahead for risk assets.”

Related: Bitcoin risks new lows as $20K looms amid dollar euro parity

Where is the bottom?

The percentage of Bitcoin supply held in profit and Bitcoin’s realized profit/loss ratio are nearing levels seen during previous bear markets, but each has “a bit more room to go” before they reach their lows for this cycle according to Delphi Digital.

BTC/USD price vs. realized P/L ratio. Source: Delphi Digital

According to the firm, “momentum indicators and valuation metrics can remain oversold or undervalued for an extended period of time,” which makes them “poor timing tools” that are not capable of predicting immediate reversals.

Contrarian investors might also want to keep an eye on the market sentiment as well as the Fear and Greed Index which has now reached historic lows.

BTC/USD price vs. Fear and Greed Index. Source: Delphi Digital

When it comes to a potential move to the upside, Delphi Digital indicated that “BTC has room above due to the previous liquidation cascade in the wake of 3AC,” and identified the next major resistance level as $28,000.

Delphi Digital said:

“BTC will likely continue to consolidate until we get some kind of macro catalyst.”

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

5 events that could put an end to the current crypto bear market

Crypto bear markets are rough, but there are five moonshot events that could turn the ship around.

Much to the chagrin of cryptocurrency investors across the ecosystem, the bear market has officially set in and brought with it devastating price collapses that have left relatively few unscathed. 

As the popular topic of conversation now centers on bearish predictions of how low Bitcoin (BTC) will go and how long this iteration of the crypto winter will last, those with more experience on the matter know that it’s virtually impossible to predict the bottom and it would be wise to apply those energies elsewhere.

Instead of focusing on the when of the end, perhaps it’s more constructive to explore what events might help pull the market out of the bear market depths and put it on a path to its next up cycle.

Here’s a look at five potential catalysts that could pull the crypto market out of its current malaise.

A successful Ethereum merge

One of the most highly anticipated developments of the past five years has been the ongoing transition of the Ethereum network from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake.

While the process has been a drawn-out one that has faced numerous setbacks, the official switch is now closer than ever following the successful completion of the Merge trial on the public test network Sepolia.

It’s possible that the building hype around the Ethereum Merge could help pull the crypto market out of its bearish state should the transition go off without a hitch, especially if it helps lead to more scalability and a faster user experience. As it stands right now, the Merge is set to take place in August 2022.

It should be noted that a successful Merge could also lead to a “buy the rumor, sell the news” type of event where prices briefly pump due to the euphoria of crypto holders, only to fall back down once the dire state of the global financial system comes back to the forefront.

Approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF

Another event that has been rumored for years that could spark a crypto revival is the passage of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) for United States markets.

Ever since 2017, when the first BTC ETF proposed by the Winklevoss twins was denied by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), there has been one rejection after another for any physically-backed Bitcoin ETF proposal put forward.

Reasons for the rejection typically revolve around the charge that cryptocurrency markets are easily manipulated and the proper safeguards are not in place to protect investors.

If a spot ETF were to be approved, it would render this long-running objection moot and bring a new level of legitimacy to Bitcoin and the crypto asset class as a whole. This has the potential to usher in a new wave of institutional adoption that could bring about the end of the crypto winter as new funds flow into the market.

The Fed reverses course

“Don’t fight the Fed” is a common expression investors use to explain one of the most influential forces on global financial markets. After multiple years of easy money policies and near-zero interest rates, the U.S. Federal Reserve approved an interest rate hike of 0.25%, the first-rate hike in more than three years.

Since then, the Fed has implemented two additional rate hikes of 0.5% and 0.75%, bringing the current benchmark interest rate to a range of 1.5% to 1.75%.

During the same period of time, risk assets around the world have been falling in price, with Bitcoin declining from $48,000 at the end of March to its current price, which is trading near support at $20,000.

The historic rise in the cryptocurrency and legacy markets that was witnessed in 2021 was largely driven by the easy money policies of the Fed, and it’s highly likely that a return to such policies would once again see funds flow into the crypto ecosystem.

Major adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender

2021 saw El Salvador become the first country in the world to adopt Bitcoin as a legal tender for use by its citizens. In April of 2022, the Central African Republic (CAR) became the second country to do so, pointing to a growing trend.

While the use of BTC as a legal form of tender has been a long-running goal of crypto proponents and the decisions by El Salvador and CAR are worth celebrating, its adoption by such small players on the world stage has done little to promote more mainstream acceptance.

That would likely change, however, if a larger market such as Japan or Germany were to open up to officially promoting the use of BTC by their citizens for their daily purchases.

Recent developments on the global stage, including conflicts and food shortages, are pushing governments to do things they never considered, and it’s not outside the realm of possibility that a larger economy could turn to Bitcoin as a currency of last resort as fiat currencies continue to lose their purchasing power.

Related: EU-regulated firm Banking Circle adopts USDC stablecoin

Integration as a payment option by a large company

A common excuse as to why people don’t use Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies for their everyday purchases is because it’s not really accepted anywhere.

While there are options available for accessing the value held in crypto, such as debit cards and online payment integrations with platforms like Shopify, the ability to make purchases by conducting transactions directly on a blockchain network is relatively limited.

On several occasions, Elon Musk has demonstrated that the mere mention of integrating blockchain-based payments can spark a market rally for the token in question.

Based on this and other examples of price pumps that followed speculation about a major adoption announcement, it’s likely that crypto payments being integrated by a major company such as Amazon or Apple could spark a bullish wave of momentum.

Want more information about trading and investing in crypto markets?

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin price surges to $21.8K, but analysts warn that the move could be a fakeout

Traders rejoice after BTC price spikes 7% to $21,800, but analysts say the macro downtrend is likely to prevail for the foreseeable future.

Hope springs eternal for many crypto investors after the market saw positive price movement on July 7, alongside gains in the traditional market. 

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

The green day in the markets comes amid a backdrop of increasing jobless claims in the United States, which is a possible signal that “the pressure on wages may have now peaked,” according to Harris Financial Group Managing Partner Jamie Cox. According to Cox, a continuation of this trend could result in financial conditions that are “tight enough to allow the Fed to throttle back on the scale of rate increases.”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that after trading near $20,400 for a majority of the day on July 7, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) spiked nearly 7% in the afternoon hours to hit a daily high of $21,860.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

As the crypto faithful attempt to navigate the choppy waters of the crypto winter in search of a market bottom, here’s what several analysts are predicting could be next for Bitcoin.

The trend remains negative

Twitter user “Roman” posted the following chart noting that “Many are becoming euphoric and bullish as we have repeated similar candle patterns for the last 8 months.”

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: Twitter

In Roman’s view, this is just the latest in a series of fakeouts that will trick a lot of traders into believing the bottom is in while in reality, the trend remains negative.

Roman said:

“Volume decreasing in a range is consolidation for continuation of trend. Not to mention thousands of inflows to exchanges before each top.”

A recovery above $23,000 would be bullish

Another trader who holds the view that the trend remains decidedly negative is pseudonymous Twitter user Gilberto, who provided the following chart noting that Bitcoin’s price recently broke out of a pennant formation.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: Twitter

Gilberto said:

“Bullish above $23K, for now daily trend is still downwards.”

As for what the potential price path for Bitcoin could look like if it continues along the downward trend, market analyst Crypto Tony posted the following chart which outlines a “worst-case scenario” that could see BTC bottom near $12,000.

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Twitter

Crypto Tony said:

“I do not think we see the start of the next impulse until later next year and a new bull run peak until 2024 – 2025. I am already positioned at $22-24K and will add if we drop to $17 – 15K.”

Related: Bitcoin traders expect a ‘generational bottom,’ but BTC derivatives data disagrees

Traders watch the 200-week moving average

When it comes to metrics that have been reliably used to help determine market bottoms, the 200-week moving average (MA) is one of the most popular and widely cited indicators that traders use to identify good buying opportunities.

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Twitter

With Bitcoin now back below its 200-week MA for only the fourth time in its history, speculation has begun to mount about how long it will take to recover back above this line and what the appetite for trading will be like once it reaches there.

In response to this possible scenario, independent market analyst Michaël van de Poppe posted the following tweet outlining what he thinks might occur once the 200-week MA is recovered.

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $957 billion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 43.1%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin price holds $20K, but analysts say ‘expect 6 months of sideways’ price action

BTC bulls are holding $20,000, but most traders are confident that the price will remain range-bound for at least six more months.

Trading across the cryptocurrency market was relatively subdued on July 5 as the ecosystem continues to digest the fallout from the Three Arrows Capital scandal and Voyager Digital announcing that it has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. 

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has spent the day oscillating around the $20,000 support level, ranging from a low of $19,775 to an intraday high of $20,480 on $25.48 billion in trading volume.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Here’s a look at what several analysts are saying about what could come next for Bitcoin and what support and resistance levels to keep an eye on in the event of a sharp move in price.

Watch the repeating pennant pattern

A noticeable pattern on the Bitcoin chart prior to the pullbacks that have occurred since November 2021 was pointed out by crypto analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user Moustache, who posted the following chart displaying the similarities between each drawdown.

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Twitter

Moustache said:

“$BTC has done the same pattern every time, but each descending triangle has gotten smaller and smaller? Another bearish breakout and the target would be between $14,000 and $16,000.”

Noted market analyst Peter Brandt also recently highlighted the repeating pennant pattern on the Bitcoin chart but stopped short of saying which way the price could move once the formation completes.

Address count grows as the market looks for a bottom

Lately, one of the most popular topics of conversation on Crypto Twitter has been centered around trying to predict the bottom in Bitcoin price.

According to cryptocurrency research firm Delphi Digital, Bitcoin has now closed below its 200 weekly average for four consecutive weeks, a development that has historically “marked previous market bottoms.”

Bitcoin price performance since January 2020. Source: Delphi Digital

As for whether or not Bitcoin traders should expect a rapid recovery, Delphi Digital noted that “this is the longest BTC has remained below its 200 weekly average” and highlighted the fact that “Bitcoin’s weekly correlation coefficient continues to remain inversely related to the US Dollar as it hit a 17-month low of -0.77.”

While a strong dollar suggests that Bitcoin price will continue to struggle alongside other assets, Delphi Digital highlighted one encouraging development that suggests BTC adoption continues to grow.

Delphi Digital said:

“With prices continuing to fall, the number of BTC addresses accumulating BTC continues to rise. Addresses holding at least one BTC have reached a new all-time high of 877,501.”

Related: World’s first short Bitcoin ETF sees exposure explode 300% in days

Some traders predict chop for the remainder of 2022

A macro look at what the past performance of Bitcoin suggests about its future was provided by market analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user KALEO, who posted the following chart outlining previous market cycles.

BTC/USD 3-day chart. Source: Twitter

Based on the chart and the predicted path provided, Kaleo suggested that the market will continue to trade sideways for the foreseeable future and will be “defined by a crab market saying above HTF logarithmic support.”

Kaleo said:

“Most likely path from here is seeing a base range between $16K – $30K established, that eventually resolves around December when price finally breaks above HTF diagonal resistance.”

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $916 billion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 42.5%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin clings to $20K as analysts warn of a long, bumpy ride for the foreseeable future

BTC price briefly fell below $20,000, and traders warn that the all-important support level could eventually crumble after enduring an increasing number of retests.

Bullish cryptocurrency traders hoping that the market was on a path higher received a dose of reality on June 29 as the price of Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below $20,000 again during intraday trading. 

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the top cryptocurrency fell under pressure in the early trading hours on June 29, with bears managing to drop BTC to a daily low of $19,857 before the price was bid back above the $20,000 mark.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Here’s a look at what several analysts are saying comes next for Bitcoin as it struggles to gain momentum and break free of the current price range.

Prepare for a choppy summer

A word of warning for traders looking to enter the market at these levels was offered by analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user IncomeSharks, who posted the following chart showing one possible path that BTC could take in the months ahead.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: Twitter

IncomeSharks said:

“More people end up losing money in chop zones than the big drop zones. I’m bullish mid term for a lot of reasons. This summer is about swing trading and accumulation. I will derisk/sell majority end of November/December.”

The possibility of a stronger pullback was also noted by Twitter user Altcoin Sherpa, who posted the following chart citing the importance of the $20,000 level.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: Twitter

Altcoin Sherpa said:

“Around 20K will be a pretty important area on lower timeframes; lose that and we see a move to the range lows around 17K again IMO. If this area is the bottom, I expect to see 17-18K tested again to be honest.”

Price could pullback to $16,400

According to Rekt Capital, the recent price action mirrors other bear markets and could provide some clues on where the bottom will be.

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Twitter

During the week of June 20, Bitcoin saw a similar buy-side volume as it experienced during the 2018 bear market bottom, near the 200-week moving average (MA).

Rekt Capital said:

“During the formation of the 2018 bottom however, that buyer volume preceded extra -20% downside. If $BTC were to drop an extra -20% soon, price would reach ~$16,400.”

Related: Bitcoin holds $20K as ECB warns inflation may never return to pre-COVID lows

Consolidation leads to accumulation

A more positive outlook was offered by Twitter user Miles J Creative, who posted the following chart supporting the thesis that a “bull phase is coming.”

BTC price vs. 1yr+ HODL wave. Source: Twitter

The analyst said:

“In Bitcoin’s history it has only had the current accumulation structure when exiting not entering bear markets. Perhaps this time is different but accumulation is saying a bull phase is coming.”

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $897 billion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 42.7%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin traders expect a ‘long consolidation’ phase now that BTC trades below $21K

Analysts say the entire crypto market is in for a very long consolidation and accumulation period following BTC’s current drop to 2017 highs.

Crypto traders had a brief opportunity to pause and take stock of where things are on June 16 as the relentless selling that has hammered Bitcoin (BTC) and the wider market over the past week began to relent despite an ongoing sell-off in the traditional markets. 

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that after climbing to a high of $23,000 in the early trading hours on June 16, the price of Bitcoin slowly trended down on diminished trading volume to hit a low at $20,765.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Here’s what several analysts in the market are saying about the outlook for Bitcoin moving forward as crypto traders try to determine if the bottom is in or if there is more downside ahead.

Expect multi-month consolidation at the 200-week MA

A macro perspective of the journey that Bitcoin has taken over the years and how its past can offer insight into the current market setup was discussed by analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user Rekt Capital, who posted the following chart highlighting BTC’s behavior near its 200-week moving average (MA).

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Twitter

Rekt Capital said,

“If #BTC continues to hold the orange 200-week MA as support and the black 200-week EMA figures as resistance… $BTC could form an Accumulation Range here, just like in 2018. This would enable multi-month consolidation to even as far as December 2022.”

If this is the scenario that plays out, then crypto traders need not rush to accumulate BTC, a point noted by crypto trader and pseudonymous Twitter user Altcoin Sherpa, who posted several charts highlighting the amount of time that BTC spent in previous accumulation phases.

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Twitter

The longest accumulation period noted by Altcoin Sherpa is the 287 day span outlined in the chart above. Other examples provided include the 133 days of accumulation between November 2018 and April 2019 and the 63 days of accumulation between May 2020 and July 2020.

Altcoin Sherap said,

“It’s likely that you will get plenty of time to catch a bottom during the accumulation phase. #Bitcoin takes a while for its bottom to form and you should probably just go out and touch some grass instead of knife catching.”

Bitcoin could reclaim $25,000, if we’re lucky

A more positive take on the latest developments for Bitcoin was offered by crypto trader Nebraskangooner, who provided the following chart noting that the “lower Fibonacci level has been reached.”

BTC/USDT 1-week chart. Source: Twitter

Nebraskangooner said,

“Let’s see if daily can close strong above resistance and then we have a chance for $25,000 and possibly mid $30K’s. For the first time in months, we might finally be ready for the bounce everyone has been calling for since $40K.”

Related: Further downside is expected, but multiple data points suggest Bitcoin is undervalued

The RSI 1000 provides a bullish sign

Another trader who has spotted a potentially bullish signal on the chart for BTC is pseudonymous Twitter user TAnalyst, who posted the following chart highlighting the recent low for the relative strength index (RSI) 1000.

BTC/USD vs. RSI 1000 1-day chart. Source: Twitter

TAnalyst said,

“#Bitcoin It is only on bottom days, BEFORE BULL RUNS, that the daily RSI(1000) is below 50. Today : RSI(1000) = 49.91. Conclude.”

Based on the history of an RSI 1000 score falling below 50, the price of Bitcoin could soon begin to climb higher.

Perhaps the best summary of the current state of the Bitcoin market and the confusion it is causing crypto traders was offered by crypto educator IncomeSharks.

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $905 billion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 44.3%

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin price climbs to $22.5K after Fed 75 basis point hike aims to cap runaway inflation

BTC and altcoins generated nominal gains after the Federal Reserve raised the benchmark interest rate by 0.75%, the largest hike in 28 years.

Global financial markets were squarely focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve and its decision to raise interest rates by 75 basis points on June 15, the largest increase in 28 years as the central bank fights to tamp down the highest inflation rates in over four decades. 

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that Bitcoin (BTC) and the wider cryptocurrency market fell under pressure in the early trading hours on June 15 as rumors of the possible collapse of Three Arrows Capital (3AC) spread across the ecosystem, which is still grappling with the ongoing Celsius debacle.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Following the announcement from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that there would be a 75 basis point hike, the price of Bitcoin briefly spiked to $22,520 before pulling back to $21,500.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The altcoin market likewise saw a brief price pump as the dire predictions of a possible 100 basis point hike failed to materialize and the market got largely what it expected from June 15 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Traditional markets responded positively to the announcement with the S&P 500, Dow and NASDAQ all trading in the green for the day, but traders would be wise to see how markets behave at the daily close and tomorrow’s opening bell.

Related: Bitcoin bounces 8% from lows amid warning BTC price bottom ‘shouldn’t be like that’

Analysts digest the rate hike and its possible impact on crypto prices

Shortly after Powell announced the 75 basis point hike, projections on when the Fed would start to cut rates started rolling in with the dominant consensus being that they would begin in 2024.

The main reason for the rise in interest rates has been soaring inflation, which came in at a year-over-year increase of 8.6% according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, which was higher than the analysts had predicted.

Some analysts have begun to speculate that the reason for the highest rate hike in 28 years is part of an effort by the Federal Reserve to try and get ahead of the curve and establish enough leg room to be able to pause hikes in the future if economic conditions continue to worsen.

Overall, the rate hike, which was largely expected, appears to have been priced into the crypto market because prices remained relatively flat following the announcement and currently, more crypto-specific developments are dominating the headlines in the sector.

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $931 billion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 44.5%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin has support at $23K, but analysts warn of a dire drop to $8K as global debt unwinds

BTC’s sell-off is easing slightly, but traders are afraid that negative newsflow and future U.S. interest rate hikes could push the price lower.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) month-long choppy price action came to an end on June 13 after a deep market sell-off pressed the top cryptocurrency under the $29,000 support. The move took place as equities markets also sold off sharply, hitting their lowest levels of the year. 

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the Bitcoin sell-off began late in the day on June 12 and escalated into midday on June 13, when BTC hit a low of $22,592.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Here’s a look at what several market analysts are saying about Bitcoin’s drop and whether this is the final capitulation event before the long-awaited price bottom.

Is there solid support at $23,000?

Previous instances of bear market capitulation have seen a solid level of support at Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, as shown in the following chart posted by market analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user “Rekt Capital.”

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Twitter

Based on the trend from the last two cycles, Rekt Capital suggested that it’s possible that BTC could see a “macro double bottom at the 200-week moving average” moving forward if the price action plays out in a similar fashion.

Rekt Capital said,

“If so, then $BTC is very close to forming its first Macro Bottom at the 200-week MA at ~$23,000. The second Macro Bottom could form in about two years’ time at a price point of ~$41,000.”

Analysts say “max pain” is at $13,330

Insight into where Bitcoin could potentially be headed should it continue to break below the established support levels was provided by data from pseudonymous analyst “Whalemap,“ who posted the following chart highlighting the previously established support levels that could now flip to resistance.

Bitcoin realized price by address. Source: Twitter

Whalemap said,

“#Bitcoin has broken through key realised price supports where they will likely become our new resistances. $13,331 is the ultimate max pain bottom.”

Related: Bitcoin derivatives data shows no ‘bottom’ in sight as traders avoid leveraged long positions

In an extreme, Bitcoin could pull back to $8,000

According to Francis Hunt, a market analyst also known under the pseudonym “The Market Sniper,” Bitcoin price could drop to as low at $8,000 before hitting a real bottom. 

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Twitter

Hunt said,

“The accumulation points would be $17,000 to $18,000. This $15,000 comes out of the blue, head and shoulders, there, that would be a pretty nasty downturn, and there is a bear flag target, a little less strong on the bear flag target at $12,000, and a full round trip will take you back to our funnel at $8,000 to $10,000.”

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.