Market Update

Hot CPI report puts a dent in Bitcoin and Ethereum rally, stocks also lose ground

BTC, ETH, altcoins and stock prices crumbled in the face of a hotter than expected CPI report. Is there room for a short-term recovery?

Crypto and stock markets are feeling the pain after the Sept. 13 inflation report printed an unexpectedly hot figure that showed headline inflation rising by 0.1% month-over-month.

Even with gas prices falling to multi-month lows and a cooling housing market, core inflation saw a 0.6% month-over-month bump and year-to-year inflation sits at 8.3%.

While market participants and investors had estimated the next Federal Reserve interest hike to be a hefty 0.75 basis points, many also subscribed to a loosely held assumption that Sept. 13’s CPI report would come in softer than projected.

Given that the market had supposedly “priced in” a 0.75 bps hike, crypto traders expected Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) and select altcoins to break out to the upside.

Well, obviously the complete opposite occurred.

The Dow slid about 2.6%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 2.9% and 3.6%, respectively. Naturally, risky assets also fell and Bitcoin price gave up more than 50% of its recent weekend gains with a 9% pullback to $20,350. With just 1 day left before the Merge, Ether price also pulled back 7.29% to $1,590, and the majority of cryptocurrencies in the top 100 are nursing single to double-digit losses at the moment.

While Bitcoin’s weekend rally from Sept. 9 extended into the start of this week and the price pushed as high as $22,800, the earlier analysis cautioned that BTC was also trading near a key overhead resistance.

As seen below, the multi-month resistance from BTC’s all-time high held as price crumbled at $22,400 when the market opened and the monthly CPI data hit media outlets. The analysis also highlighted the “successive bear flag continuation” trend that has been in play since Bitcoin price topped out at $69,000 on Nov. 10, 2021.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Barring an extremely bullish Merge event, the most likely direction for Bitcoin remains to the downside.

A positive point to note is, that despite Sept. 13’s correction, Bitcoin price continues to chop about in its 90-day range (pink box) between $25,400 and $17,600. From my vantage point, there’s “nothing to see here” until the price breaks below $18,500 or the yearly low at $17,600.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

This week’s Ethereum Merge could be the most significant shift in crypto’s history

On this week’s episode of “The Market Report,” Cointelegraph’s resident experts discuss the significance of the Ethereum Merge and why it could be the biggest shift in crypto’s history.

On this week’s “The Market Report” show, Cointelegraph’s resident experts discuss the significance of the Ethereum Merge, the latest CPI data, important things to know in Bitcoin (BTC) this week and altcoins analysis.

To kick things off, we broke down the latest news in the markets this week.

Bitcoin price sheds $1K in 3 minutes as U.S. CPI inflation overshoots. Bitcoin’s 4% losses swiftly ensue as inflation fails to cool as quickly as hoped for, resulting in a wave of sell-offs for the crypto market. We do a deep dive into what the data means and the implications on the wider market. Does this mark the end of the recent price pump we saw earlier this week or will we rebound once things settle down? We take a look at what President Joe Biden had to say about the latest CPI data and also what Crypto Twitter is discussing about the matter. Lots to unpack here so make sure you stay tuned as we break down the information for you.

The Fed, the Merge and $22K BTC — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week. A bullish weekly close sees Bitcoin tackle realized price while analysts speculate on major volatility in the coming days. With the new CPI data causing the price of Bitcoin to fall, can the Merge bring some relief to the markets or will it cause further downside? We also do a deep dive into the Ethereum Merge and explain why it is such a significant event in crypto’s history and why you should be keeping a close eye on the developments. We also highlight certain scams you need to be aware of to keep yourself safe.

Price analysis: ADA, SOL, and MATIC. Our experts take a look at a few altcoins that have been making some interesting moves this week. They analyze the charts and make a case for where the price could possibly go. So make sure you stick around because you don’t want to miss this vital information.

Next up is a new segment called “Quick Crypto Tips,” which aims to give newcomers to the crypto industry quick and easy tips to get the most out of their experience. This week’s tip: Trade, do not gamble.

Market expert Marcel Pechman then carefully examines the Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) markets. Are the current market conditions bullish or bearish? What is the outlook for the next few months? Pechman is here to break it down. The experts also go over some market news to bring you up to date on the latest regarding the top two cryptocurrencies.

Lastly, we’ve got insights from Cointelegraph Markets Pro, a platform for crypto traders who want to stay one step ahead of the market. The analysts use Cointelegraph Markets Pro to identify three altcoins that stood out this week: Audius’s token AUDIO, Ocean Protocol’s token OCEAN and DIGG’s token DIGG.

Do you have a question about a coin or topic not covered here? Don’t worry. Join the YouTube chat room, and write your questions there. The person with the most interesting comment or question will be given a $50 gift voucher to the Cointelegraph merch store.

The Market Report streams live every Tuesday at 12:00 pm ET (4:00 pm UTC), so be sure to head on over to Cointelegraph’s YouTube page and smash those like and subscribe buttons for all our future videos and updates.

Time for a breakout? Bitcoin price pushes at key resistance near $23K

Traders watch closely as BTC price presses at a long-term trendline resistance that has previously capped previous rallies.

On Sept. 12, Bitcoin (BTC) is doing Bitcoin things as usual. Since Sept. 9, the price has broken out nicely, booking a near 16% gain and rallying into the long-term descending trendline, which appears to have resistance at $23,000. 

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Perhaps BTC and the wider market are turning bullish ahead of the Ethereum Merge which is scheduled for Sept. 14, or maybe the elusive bottom is finally in. Weekly chart data from TradingView shows that on June 27 and Aug. 15, Bitcoin’s relative strength index had dropped to lows not seen since 2019.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Currently, the metric has rebounded from a near oversold 31 to its current 38.5 reading. Some traders might also note a bullish divergence on the metric, where the RSI follows an ascending trendline while Bitcoin’s weekly candlesticks trend downward. Bitcoin’s moving average convergence divergence (MACD) has also crossed over as purchasing volume surged and BTC price attempts to break from its current 90-day range.

As pointed out in a previous analysis, since Jan. 21, the Bitcoin price has simply been range trading in what have turned out to be successive bear flags that see a continuation to new yearly lows. Price has consistently encountered resistance at the overhead descending trendline and the price action witnessed today and in the past 90-days is not a deviation from the trend.

Traders should watch for BTC price to push secure a few daily closes above the trendline resistance and setting a daily higher high above $25,400, or even a breakout to the 200-MA at $30,000 would be an excellent sight of either a trend change or at least a leg up to a new consolidation range. Until that occurs, the standard practice among traders is to not go long at long-term resistance and wait to see whether the bullish momentum holds or the prevailing trend remains intact.

Related: The Fed, the Merge and $22K BTC — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Of course, there are a handful of other on-chain and derivatives metrics which could add valuable context to Bitcoin’s current price action, but the purpose of this brief analysis is to simply provide a quick, snapshot interpretation of BTC’s current market action and consider what traders might be thinking in the short-term.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Is Bitcoin heading to $15K? Why are the markets suddenly pulling back?

Is Bitcoin (BTC) heading back down? What caused the sudden pullback to $18.5K? Join us as we discuss this and more with Tim Warren, co-host of Coffee N Crypto, and Ray Salmond.

In this week’s episode of Market Talks, we welcome Ray Salmond, head of markets at Cointelegraph.

The main topic of discussion with Ray will be the recent crypto market pullback and whether there is a possibility of the price of Bitcoin (BTC) going all the way down to $15K. We take a look at the charts to analize the price movements and figure out important price levels to keep an eye on.

Some might see the falling crypto prices and see an opportunity. We ask Ray how this market could be a potential opportunity for some. We also get his take on why the price of Bitcoin keeps dropping so consistently. 

Miners are an integral part of the Bitcoin ecosystem, but what happens when mining Bitcoin is no longer profitable and miners suffer huge losses? Will we see a capitulation event? What will that do to the price of Bitcoin and the whole crypto market? We try to get a sense of the Bitcoin miners’ sentiment.

The Ethereum Merge is all over the news recently. We ask Ray for his insights about the matter and whether his outlook is bearish or bullish. Also, what’s his strategy for trading the Merge? The markets are getting increasingly volatile at the moment and you might be wondering what is the best strategy right now  buy, sell, hodl or trade? Make sure you stay till the end of the show to find out.

Tune in to have your voice heard. We’ll be taking your questions and comments throughout the show, so be sure to have them ready to go.

Market Talks with Coffee ‘N’ Crypto’s Tim Warren streams live every Thursday at 12 pm ET (4:00 pm UTC). Each week, we feature interviews with some of the most influential and inspiring people from the crypto and blockchain industry. So, be sure to head on over to Cointelegraph’s YouTube page and smash those like and subscribe buttons for all our future videos and updates.

Will the Ethereum Merge crash or revive the crypto market? | Find out now on The Market Report

On this week’s episode of “The Market Report,” Cointelegraph’s resident experts discuss the Ethereum (ETH) merge and how it might impact the crypto market.

On this week’s “The Market Report” show, Cointelegraph’s resident experts discuss the Ethereum Merge and how it might impact the crypto market

To kick things off, we broke down the latest news in the markets this week.

Surge or purge? Why the Merge may not save Ether (ETH) price from “Septembear.” Options data, macroeconomic catalysts and technical signals suggest a decline in Ether price is on the table despite the Merge. Ethereum’s native token, Ether, is not immune to downside risk in September after rallying approximately 90% from its bottom of around $880 in June. Can Ethereum prove analysts wrong and break out in price following the Merge or has the price already been factored in and we’ve already seen the price spike for the end of this year?

ETH Merge: CoinGecko co-founder shares strategy for forked tokens. Many believe that after Ethereum transitions to proof-of-stake (PoS), a faction of Ether (ETH) miners will be creating a proof-of-work (PoW) fork of the network so that they can still keep mining. An executive believes that there are ways for ETH holders to take advantage of this upcoming event. Different people are expecting to trade the Merge very differently to take advantage. Our experts highlight some of their plans. Let us know how you will be doing things in the comments sections.

Ethereum gone wrong? Here are 3 signs to keep an eye on during the Merge. The assumption that Ethereum will just transition to a fully functional proof-of-stake (PoS) network after the Merge somewhat ignores the risk and effort necessary to move an asset that has a $193 billion market capitalization and 400 decentralized applications (DApps). That is precisely why monitoring vital network conditions is essential for anyone willing to trade the event. Our very own Marcel Pechman lays down 3 things to keep an eye on during the merge.

Next up is a new segment called “Quick Crypto Tips,” which aims to give newcomers to the crypto industry quick and easy tips to get the most out of their experience. This week’s tip: Learn when to step aside.

Market expert Marcel Pechman then carefully examines the Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) markets. Are the current market conditions bullish or bearish? What is the outlook for the next few months? Pechman is here to break it down. The experts also go over some markets news to bring you up to date on the latest regarding the top two cryptocurrencies.

Lastly, we’ve got insights from Cointelegraph Markets Pro, a platform for crypto traders who want to stay one step ahead of the market. The analysts use Cointelegraph Markets Pro to identify two altcoins that stood out this week: Lido DAO Token’s LDO and Firo’s FIRO.

Do you have a question about a coin or topic not covered here? Don’t worry. Join the YouTube chat room, and write your questions there. The person with the most interesting comment or question will be given a one-month subscription to Markets Pro worth $100.

The Market Report streams live every Tuesday at 12:00 pm ET (4:00 pm UTC), so be sure to head on over to Cointelegraph’s YouTube page and smash those like and subscribe buttons for all our future videos and updates.

What does the Fed’s fight against inflation mean for crypto? Macro analyst explains

Macro analyst Lyn Alden explains why the Fed’s efforts to curb inflation may take longer than expected and how they will impact the crypto markets.

The Federal Reserve’s efforts to battle inflation by rising interest rates and killing demand may have limited results as long as the supply side of the inflation problem won’t be fixed, according to macro analyst Lyn Alden. 

“Until they actually fix the supply side of certain things, like energy especially, but commodities broadly and logistics infrastructure, until that is improved, it’s hard to have a more persistent fix to the inflationary problem,” Alden told Cointelegraph in an exclusive interview. 

Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole sent a clear signal that the Federal Reserve is determined to continue its efforts to tame inflation, bringing it down to a target of 2%. That will be achieved at the cost of more pain inflicted on the economy, higher unemployment and the risk of a recession.

“They’re going to tighten until they break something or until they cause recessionary enough conditions. And at that point, they might pivot,” Alden explained.

Until the Fed won’t pivot its interest rates policy, the crypto markets are unlikely to recover, pointed out Alden. In the long run, the central banks will be unable to preserve positive interest rates, mainly because of the high level of public debt that is burdening the most developed economies. 

“A lot of the major developed countries have an inability to get to positive real rates and hold it there,” said Alden. 

That, according to Alden, will favor scarce assets such as Bitcoin in the long run. 

Check out the full interview on our YouTube channel and don’t forget to subscribe!

Bitcoin holds $20K, but analysts say BTC open interest leaves room for ‘more deleveraging’

BTC trades in the lower end of its 76-day range, but analysts say future Fed actions and record-high open interest increase the possibility of future “deleveraging events.”

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price continues to struggle at $20,000 and repeat dips under this level have led some analysts to project a deeper downside in the short term. Earlier in the week, independent market analyst Philip Swift tweeted that the Crypto Fear & Greed Index had dropped back to back to “Extreme Fear,” reflecting softening sentiment among investors. 

On Aug 29, analytics firm Delphi Digital highlighted Bitcoin open interest hitting a new record-high and said:

“The Futures Open Interest Leverage Ratio for BTC reached its highest level ever recorded at more than 3% of BTC market cap, following the market-wide collapse on August 26th.”

According to Delphi Digital, “higher values suggest that open interest is large, relative to market size. This implies a higher risk of market squeezes, liquidation cascades or delivering events.”

Bitcoin open interest. Source: Delphi Digital

Exactly what might catalyze such an event remains unknown, but any continuation of the current downtrend in stocks which saw the Dow and S&P 500 wrap up the fourth day of decline to end August at a loss, could continue to weigh on Bitcoin price. Data from CNBC shows the Dow closed August down 4.1% and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed the month with 4.2% and 4.6% losses.

Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester also commented that she expects the benchmark interest rate to rise above 4% and she suggested that it is highly unlikely that there will be any cuts throughout the entirety of 2023. 4% is well above the Fed’s target 2.25% to 2.5% range.

Considering how crypto markets have performed since the Fed first began raising rates on July 26, 2022, and the fact that BTC and equities markets reflect a strong correlation, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a long drawn-out decline of the Bitcoin price over the coming months.

Related: Potential Bitcoin price double-bottom could spark BTC rally to $30K despite ‘extreme fear’

On the other hand, traders appear to still be bullish on the upcoming Merge. Ether (ETH) and ETH staking-related tokens have held up relatively well since bouncing from last week’s sell-off. After dropping to $1,422 on Aug. 28, Ether has gained 11.3% and trades slightly below $1,600. Lido (LDO), the largest ETH staking service, is up 12% on the day and 32% from last week’s drop to $1.55.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

What crashed the crypto relief rally? | Find out now on The Market Report

On this week’s episode of “The Market Report,” Cointelegraph’s resident experts discuss what factors lead to the collapse of the bear market rally.

On this week’s “The Market Report” show, Cointelegraph’s resident experts discuss some of the main factors that contributed to the collapse of this bear market rally.

To kick things off, we broke down the latest news in the markets this week

Bitcoin (BTC) to lose $21K despite miners’ capitulation exit? Five things to know in Bitcoin this week. Miners are a glimmer of hope in a barren Bitcoin landscape this week ahead of a key Federal Reserve event in Jackson Hole. After dipping below $21,000 over the weekend, the largest cryptocurrency is consolidating around 10% lower than a week ago, and the fear across crypto markets is clearly visible. As August nears the end, what will September bring in terms of inflation, price volatility and other macro triggers?

Data shows Bitcoin and altcoins at risk of a 20% drop to new yearly lows. The total crypto market capitalization dropped to the $1 trillion support, and weak stablecoin demand and a largely absent funding rate reflect traders’ negative sentiment. Will crypto investors’ sentiment shift toward more bearish? Are we on our way to retesting yearly lows?

Cryptocurrencies react to Jackson Hole, Fed rate hike plans and a weakening bear market rally. The price action in Bitcoin, altcoins and stocks reflects investors’ anxiety over the Fed’s rate hike plans, a weakening bear market rally and this week’s Jackson Hole economic symposium. Is the fear of future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve making investors nervous? Is this macro uncertainty keeping the institutional investors away from the crypto markets?

Bitcoin whales attack sellers at $22.3K as the euro drops below USD parity. Bitcoin struggles to make a return to higher levels despite geopolitical uncertainty striking the eurozone. The weekend lows however preserved the lows from July. Could this mean that the bear market rally could make a return? What happens if Bitcoin moves above the critical 200-week moving average (WMA)?

Next up is a new segment called “Quick Crypto Tips,” which aims to give newcomers to the crypto industry quick and easy tips to get the most out of their experience. This week’s tip: Be wary of exchanges.

Market expert Marcel Pechman then carefully examines the Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) markets. Are the current market conditions bullish or bearish? What is the outlook for the next few months? Pechman is here to break it down. The experts also go over some markets news to bring you up to date on the latest regarding the top two cryptocurrencies.

Lastly, we’ve got insights from Cointelegraph Markets Pro, a platform for crypto traders who want to stay one step ahead of the market. The analysts use Cointelegraph Markets Pro to identify two altcoins that stood out this week: DeXe’s DEXE and DIGG’s DIGG.

Do you have a question about a coin or topic not covered here? Don’t worry. Join the YouTube chat room, and write your questions there. The person with the most interesting comment or question will be given a $50 CT store gift voucher.

The Market Report streams live every Tuesday at 12:00 pm ET (4:00 pm UTC), so be sure to head on over to Cointelegraph’s YouTube page and smash those like and subscribe buttons for all our future videos and updates.

Bitcoin price corrects after hitting a wall at a multi-month descending trendline

“Up only” Bitcoin and Ethereum take a breather after encountering resistance at a stiff multi-month descending trendline.

On Aug. 15, Bitcoin (BTC) price and the wider market corrected while the S&P 500 and DOW looked to build on four-straight weeks of robust gains. Data from TradingView and CNBC show the Dow pushing through its 200-day moving average, a first since April 21 and perhaps a sign for bulls that the market has bottomed. 

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI). Source: TradingView

While equities markets have been strikingly bullish in the face of high inflation and a steady schedule of interest rate hikes, a number of traders fear that the current 32-day uptrend in the DOW and S&P 500 could be a bear market rally.

This week’s (Aug. 17) release of minutes from the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) should give more context to the Federal Reserve’s current view of the health of the United States economy and perhaps shed light on the size of the next interest rate hike.

For the past month, overly bullish crypto traders on Twitter have also been touting a narrative that emphasizes Bitcoin, Ether (ETH) and altcoins selling off prior to FOMC meetings and then rallying afterward if the set rate aligns with investors’ projected figure.

Somehow, this short-term dynamic also contributes to investors’ belief that the Fed will “pivot” away from its monetary policy of interest hikes and quantitative tightening after “inflation peaks.” This may be a somewhat profitable trade for savvy day-traders, but it’s important to note that inflation is currently at 8.5% and the Fed’s target is 2%, which is quite aways to go.

Ultimately, Bitcoin price maintains a high correlation to the S&P 500 so investors would be wise to avoid tunnel vision-like narratives that align with their bias and keep an eye on the performance of equities markets.

Bitcoin sells-off at a multi-month trendline resistance

Over the weekend, Bitcoin made a strong move at a multi-month descending trendline and broke through the $24,000 level, following a path that many traders anticipated would trigger an upside move and the VPVR gap fill to the $28,000 to $29,000 level.

Trader Cheds said “BTC really looked like it was going to go last night” but the selling at resistance created an “outside bar” where “the prior trend was challenged” and according to Cheds, this is a sign that “the trend may be stalling and be on the look out for signs of further weakening.”

Pseudonymous trader “Big Smokey” appeared to concur that a “strong directional move” could be on the cards, citing tightening in the Bollinger Bands and separately in the Super Guppy indicators as Bitcoin price drew close to the multi-month descending trendline.

In a separate chart, Big Smokey suggested that if the descending trendline is broken, Bitcoin could see “a 26% pop to $28K before more sideways chop,” resulting in an eventual retest of the $24,000 level.

After hitting similar overhead resistance levels, most altcoins also followed Bitcoin’s lead by posting single-digit losses, but those that were flashing bottoming signals are still rounding out with what appear to be reversal patterns.

AVAX, FTM and SOL daily chart. Source: TradingView

Related: Shiba Inu eyes 50% rally as SHIB price enters ‘cup-and-handle’ breakout mode

Every dog has its day

Interestingly, on Sunday (Aug. 14) popular traders on Crypto Twitter prophesied that the sharp gains from meme tokens like Shiba Inu (SHIB) and Dogecoin (DOGE) were a clear sign that the bull phase was over-extended and en route to a correction.

Ultimately, after a 130% and 42.5% rally from Ether and BTC, each was poised for a bit of profit taking, especially at resistance. Open Interest on both assets remains near all-time highs, but what it will take to trigger BTC to breakout or breakdown at the multi-month descending trendline is unknown.

Perhaps a 1% rate hike, stiffer crypto regulations or a surprise turn-around in equities markets could send price tumbling back toward yearly lows. Alternatively, a successful Ethereum Merge could be a positive catalyst that triggers a high volume surge above Bitcoin’s key resistance level.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Good news for Bitcoin: New CPI data suggests inflation has peaked | Find out now on Market Talks with Tim Warren and Caleb Franzen

The CPI numbers are out and they might hold a bullish signal for Bitcoin (BTC). Join us as we discuss this and other topics with Tim Warren, co-host of Coffee N Crypto, and Caleb Franzen.

In this weeks episode of Market Talks we welcome senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics, Caleb Franzen.

Caleb is a Senior Market Strategist at Cubic Analytics, analysing new data/charts on the economy, the stock market, and Bitcoin to make better investment decisions. He is also a former corporate banking & portfolio analyst.

The main topic of discussion with Caleb will be the new CPI data and what they mean for the crypto market, specifically Bitcoin (BTC). Is there a correlation between the data and the recent price pump? How sustainable is this price action?

We also go over a few of Caleb’s tweets where he explains which indicators he looks at when analysing charts. One indicator he finds particularly interesting is the 78-week Williams%R oscillator. We get into why it’s important and how it can help.

Something that might be looming over everyone’s heads is whether the recent Bitcoin pump is a fake out and if we could actually go lower before we break through $30K. We get Caleb’s thoughts on this as he and Tim try to figure it out.

Ethereum (ETH) has been performing particularly well recently with all the news and hype surrounding the merge from proof of work (POW) to proof of stake (POS). Does this mean that the merge has already been priced in or can we see a rally when the merge actually takes place in September? Could this be a classic case of buy the rumour sell the news?

Tune in to have your voice heard. We’ll be taking your questions and comments throughout the show, so be sure to have them ready to go.

Market Talks with Crypto Jebb streams live every Thursday at 1 pm ET (5:00 pm UTC). Each week, we feature interviews with some of the most influential and inspiring people from the crypto and blockchain industry. So, be sure to head on over to Cointelegraph’s YouTube page and smash those like and subscribe buttons for all our future videos and updates.