Liquidation

$300M crypto long liquidations — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

BTC price action obliterates latecomers betting on continued upside as Bitcoin analysts and miners breathe a sigh of relief.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a key week for macro markets with a bump as the weekly close gives way to a sharp 7% BTC price correction.

The largest cryptocurrency broke down toward $40,000 in a fresh bout of volatility, reaching its lowest level in a week.

Arguably long overdue, Bitcoin’s return to test support nonetheless caught bullish latecomers by surprise, liquidating almost $100 million in longs.

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Bitcoin price rally to $42K driven by spot volumes, not BTC futures liquidations

Bitcoin futures data counters the assumption that BTC’s rally to $42,000 was primarily propelled by shorts liquidations. What is next for BTC?

In the past seven days, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a whopping 14.5% surge, hitting a 20-month high at $41,130 by Dec.

The impact of the recent liquidations in Bitcoin futures markets

While the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) trades USD-settled contracts for Bitcoin futures, where no physical Bitcoin changes hands, these futures markets undoubtedly play a crucial role in shaping spot prices.

In the same seven-day period, a mere $200 million worth of BTC futures shorts were liquidated, representing only 1% of the total outstanding contracts.

Bitcoin futures aggregate open interest and volume, USD. Source: Coinglass

Even when focusing solely on the CME, which is known for potential trading volume inflation, its daily volume of $2.67 billion should have readily absorbed a $100 million 24-hour liquidation.

One could attempt to gauge the extent of liquidations at different price levels using tape reading techniques.

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Bitcoin derivatives data shows bulls positioning for further BTC price upside

BTC price continues to show strength, and derivatives data suggests that bulls intend to press Bitcoin higher.

Bitcoin (BTC) price maintained the $30,000 support as lower-than-expected U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was released on April 12. The official inflation rate for March increased 5% year on year, which was slightly less than the 5.1% consensus. It was the lowest reading since May 2021 but is still significantly higher than the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

The data suggests that inflation is no longer the driving force behind Bitcoin’s rally, and investors’ focus has shifted from the impact of inflationary pressure to potential recession risks after the banking crisis revealed how fragile the financial system was following the Federal Reserve’s 12-month hike in interest rates from 0.10% to 4.85%.

Aside from the Silicon Valley Bank bankruptcy and the government-backed sale of Credit Suisse to UBS, several warning signs of a macroeconomic downturn have emerged.

The most recent ISM Purchasing Managers Index data fell to its lowest level since May 2020, indicating an economic contraction. According to Federal Reserve documents released on April 12, the aftermath of the U.S. banking crisis is likely to push the economy into a “mild recession” later this year. Because of the crisis, some have speculated that the Fed will hold off on raising interest rates, but officials affirmed that more effort is needed to keep inflation under control.

According to a Moody’s Analytics report, commercial real estate prices fell 1.6% in February, the most since the 2008 financial crisis. Furthermore, the national office vacancy rate reached 16.5%, indicating the severity of the economic difficulties that businesses are currently facing.

Whatever the reason for Bitcoin’s 50% rally between March 11 and April 11, it demonstrates resilience to FUD — fear, uncertainty and doubt — including the Securities and Exchange Commission’s Wells notice against Coinbase on March 22 and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission filing a suit against Binance and its CEO, Changpeng Zhao, on March 27. By holding the $30,000 support, Bitcoin demonstrates that the positive momentum can continue regardless of whether inflation remains above 5%.

Bulls are better positioned for the weekly BTC options expiry

Not everyone is cheering the rally, particularly traders who have placed bearish bets using Bitcoin options. The April 14 open interest for BTC options expiry is $950 million, with $490 million in call (buy) options and $460 million in put (sell) options. Bears have been caught off guard, with less than 7% of their bets exceeding $29,000.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for April 14. Source: CoinGlass

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of call (buy) and put (sell) options contracts available on April 14 varies depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

  • Between $28,000 and $29,000: 2,600 calls vs. 1,800 puts. The net result is balanced between call and put options.
  • Between $29,000 and $30,000: 6,700 calls vs. 500 puts. The net result favors the call (buy) instruments by $110 million.
  • Between $30,000 and $30,500: 8,500 calls vs. 200 puts. Bulls increase their advantage to $250 million.
  • Between $30,500 and $31,500: 11,300 calls vs. 100 puts. Bulls’ advantage increases to $350 million.

This rough estimate considers only call options in bullish bets and put options in neutral-to-bearish trades. Nonetheless, this oversimplification excludes more complex investment strategies. A trader, for example, could have sold a put option, effectively gaining positive exposure to Bitcoin above a certain price, but this effect is difficult to estimate.

Related: Bitcoin-friendly PPI data boosts bulls as Ether price fights for $2K

Bears are unlikely to reverse their situation

Bulls are expected to push Bitcoin above $30,500 on April 14 at 8:00 am UTC to profit an additional $100 million. Bears, on the other hand, would need to pressure Bitcoin’s price below $29,000 in order to balance the scales. However, bears recently suffered significant losses as BTC futures short contracts were forcibly liquidated to the tune of $128 million between April 9 and April 11.

As the most likely scenario favors Bitcoin bulls, their profits will most likely be used to reinforce the $30,000 support. Bears might consider licking their wounds and waiting for additional actions from regulators, as the macroeconomic scenario is currently bullish for supply-capped assets.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin price derivatives look a bit overheated, but data suggests bears are outnumbered

Bullish BTC traders are using excessive leverage, but bears’ reluctance to fight back could extend the current Bitcoin price rally.

Bitcoin (BTC) price rallied over 12% on Feb. 15, marking the highest daily close in more than six months. Curiously, the movement happened while gold reached a 40-day low at $1,826, indicating some potential shift in investors’ risk assessment for cryptocurrencies.

A stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation report on Feb. 14 showed consumer prices rising 5.6% year-on-year, followed by data showing resilient consumer demand, causing traders to rethink Bitcoin’s scarcity value. U.S. retail sales increased by 3% in January over the previous month — the highest gain in almost two years.

On-chain data indicates that the recent gains can be traced back to a mysterious institutional investor that started buying on Feb. 10. According to Lookonchain’s data, nearly $1.6 billion in funds have flowed into the crypto market between Feb. 10 and Feb. 15. The analysis showed that three notable USD Coin (USDC) wallets sent out funds to various exchanges around the same time.

More importantly, news emerged that the Binance exchange is preparing to face penalties and settle eventual outstanding regulatory and law-enforcement investigations in the U.S., according to a Feb. 15 Wall Street Journal report. The exchange’s chief strategy officer, Patrick Hillmann, added that Binance was “highly confident and feeling really good about where those discussions are going.”

Let’s look at derivatives metrics to understand better how professional traders are positioned in the current market conditions.

Bitcoin margined longs entered the “FOMO” range

Margin markets provide insight into how professional traders are positioned because it allows investors to borrow cryptocurrency to leverage their positions.

For example, one can increase exposure by borrowing stablecoins to buy (long) Bitcoin. On the other hand, Bitcoin borrowers can only bet against (short) the cryptocurrency. Unlike futures contracts, the balance between margin longs and shorts isn’t always matched.

OKX stablecoin/BTC margin lending ratio. Source: OKX

The above chart shows that OKX traders’ margin lending ratio increased between Jan. 13 and Jan. 15, signaling that professional traders added leverage long positions as Bitcoin price broke above the $23,500 resistance.

One might argue that the demand for borrowing stablecoins for bullish positioning is excessive as a stablecoin/BTC margin lending ratio above 30 is unusual. However, traders tend to deposit more collateral after a few days or weeks, causing the indicator to exit the FOMO level.

Options traders remain skeptical of a sustained rally

Traders should also analyze options markets to understand whether the recent rally has caused investors to become more risk-averse. The 25% delta skew is a telling sign whenever arbitrage desks and market makers are overcharging for upside or downside protection.

The indicator compares similar call (buy) and put (sell) options and will turn positive when fear is prevalent because the protective put options premium is higher than risk call options.

In short, the skew metric will move above 10% if traders fear a Bitcoin price crash. On the other hand, generalized excitement reflects a negative 10% skew.

Related: $24K Bitcoin — Is it time to buy BTC and altcoins? Watch Market Talks live

Bitcoin 60-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas

Notice that the 25% delta skew has been neutral for the past two weeks, signaling equal pricing for bullish and bearish strategies. This reading is highly unusual considering Bitcoin gained 16.2% from Jan. 13 to Jan. 16 and typically, one would expect excessive bullishness causing the skew to move below negative 10.

One thing is for sure, a lack of bearish sentiment is present in futures and options markets. Still, there are some concerning data on excessive margin demand for leverage buying, although it is too soon to call it worrisome.

The longer Bitcoin remains above $24,000, the more comfortable those pro traders become with the current rally. Moreover, bears using futures markets had $235 million liquidated between Jan. 15 and Jan. 16, resulting in a decreasing appetite for bearish bets. Hence, the derivatives markets continue to favor bullish momentum.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin options data shows bulls aiming for $17K BTC price by Friday’s expiry

BTC bulls could secure a $130 million profit in the Dec. 9 options expiry, but bears aim to balance the scales by keeping Bitcoin price below $17,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) price crashed to $15,500 on Nov. 21, driving the price to its lowest level in two years. The 2-day-long correction totaled an 8% downtrend and wiped out $230 million worth of leverage long (buy) futures contracts. 

The price move gave the false impression to bears that a sub-$15,500 expiry on the Dec. 9 options expiry was feasible, but those bets are unlikely to pay off as the deadline approaches.

Year-to-date, Bitcoin price is 65% down for 2022, but the leading cryptocurrency remains a top 30 global tradable asset class ahead of tech giants like Meta Platforms (META), Samsung (005930.KS), and Coca-Cola (KO).

Investors’ main concern is still the possibility of a recession if the U.S. Federal Reserve raises rates for longer than expected. Proof of this comes from Dec. 2 data which showed that 263,000 jobs were created in November, signaling the Fed’s effort to slow the economy and bring down inflation remains a work in progress.

On Dec. 7, Wells Fargo director Azhar Iqbal wrote in a note to clients that “all told, financial indicators point to a recession on the horizon.” Iqbal added, “taken together with the inverted yield curve, markets are clearly braced for a recession in 2023.”

Bears were overly pessimistic and will suffer the consequences

The open interest for the Dec. 9 options expiry is $320 million, but the actual figure will be lower since bears were expecting sub-$15,500 price levels. These traders became overconfident after Bitcoin traded below $16,000 on Nov. 22.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Dec. 9. Source: CoinGlass

The 1.19 call-to-put ratio reflects the imbalance between the $175 million call (buy) open interest and the $145 million put (sell) options. Currently, Bitcoin stands at $16,900, meaning most bearish bets will likely become worthless.

If Bitcoin’s price remains near $17,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Dec. 9, only $16 million worth of these put (sell) options will be available. This difference happens because the right to sell Bitcoin at $16,500 or $15,500 is useless if BTC trades above that level on expiry.

Bulls aim for $18k to secure a $130 million profit

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on Dec. 9 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

  • Between $15,500 and $16,500: 200 calls vs. 2,100 puts. The net result favors the put (bear) instruments by $30 million.
  • Between $16,500 and $17,000: 1,700 calls vs. 1,500 puts. The net result is balanced between bears and bulls.
  • Between $17,000 and $18,000: 5,500 calls vs. 100 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $100 million.
  • Between $18,000 and $18,500: 7,300 calls vs. 0 puts. Bulls completely dominate the expiry by profiting $130 million.

This crude estimate considers the put options used in bearish bets and the call options exclusively in neutral-to-bullish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

For example, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining positive exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price, but unfortunately, there’s no easy way to estimate this effect.

Related: Institutional investors still eye crypto despite the FTX collapse

Bulls probably have less margin to support the price

Bitcoin bulls need to push the price above $18,000 on Friday to secure a potential $130 million profit. On the other hand, the bears’ best-case scenario requires a slight push below $16,500 to maximize their gains.

Bitcoin bulls just had $230 million leverage long positions liquidated in two days, so they might have less margin required to support the price.

Considering the negative pressure from traditional markets due to recession concerns and raising interest rates, bears will likely avoid a loss by keeping Bitcoin below $17,000 on Dec 9.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin options data shows sub-$17K BTC price gives bears a $200M payday on Friday

BTC bears are set to profit from this week’s $710 million options expiry, which could be used to add further sell pressure to Bitcoin price.

Bitcoin (BTC) crashed below $16,000 on Nov. 9, driving the price to its lowest level in two years. The two-day correction totaled a 27% downtrend and wiped out $352 million worth of leverage long (buy) futures contracts.

To date, Bitcoin price is down 65% for 2022, but it’s essential to compare its price action against the world’s biggest tech companies. For instance, Meta Platforms (META) is down 70% year-to-date, and Snap Inc. (SNAP) has dropped 80%. Furthermore, Cloudflare (NET) lost 71% in 2022, followed by Roblox Corporation (RBLX), down 70%.

Inflationary pressure and fear of a global recession have driven investors away from riskier assets. This protective movement has caused the U.S. Treasuries’ five-year yield to reach 4.33% earlier in November, its highest level in 15 years. Investors demand a higher premium to hold government debt, signaling a lack of confidence in the Federal Reserve’s ability to curb inflation.

Contagion risks from FTX and Alameda Research’s insolvency are the most pressing issues. The trading group managed multiple cryptocurrency project funds and was the second-largest trading exchange for Bitcoin derivatives.

Bulls were overly optimistic and will suffer the consequences

The open interest for the Nov. 11 options expiry is $710 million, but the actual figure will be lower since bulls were ill-prepared for prices below $19,000. These traders were overconfident after Bitcoin sustained above $20,000 for almost two weeks.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Nov. 11. Source: CoinGlass

The 0.83 call-to-put ratio reflects the imbalance between the $320 million call (buy) open interest and the $390 million put (sell) options. Currently, Bitcoin stands near $17,500, meaning most bullish bets will likely become worthless.

If Bitcoin’s price remains below $18,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Nov. 11, only $45 million worth of these call (buy) options will be available. This difference happens because the right to buy Bitcoin at $18,000 or $19,000 is useless if BTC trades below that level on expiry.

Bears aim for sub-$17k to secure a $200 million profit

Below are the three most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on Nov. 11 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

  • Between $16,000 and $18,000: 1,300 calls vs. 12,900 puts. Bears dominate, profiting $200 million.
  • Between $18,000 and $19,000: 2,500 calls vs. 10,200 puts. The net result favors the put (bear) instruments by $140 million.
  • Between $19,000 and $20,000: 3,600 calls vs. 5,900 puts. The net result favors the put (bear) instruments by $40 million.

This crude estimate considers the call options used in bullish bets and the put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

For example, a trader could have sold a call option, effectively gaining negative exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price but, unfortunately, there’s no easy way to estimate this effect.

Related: Grayscale Bitcoin Trust records a 41% discount amid FTX meltdown

Bulls probably have less margin to support the price

Bitcoin bulls need to push the price above $19,000 on Nov. 11 to avoid a potential $140 million loss. On the other hand, the bears’ best-case scenario requires a slight push below $17,000 to maximize their gains.

Bitcoin bulls just had $352 million leverage long positions liquidated in two days, so they might have less margin required to support the price. In other words, bears have a head start to pin BTC below $17,000 ahead of the weekly options expiry.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin bulls aim for a post-FOMC win in Friday’s $640M BTC options expiry

FOMC meeting-induced volatility is impacting BTC price, but bulls are still aiming for a win in this week’s $640 million options expiry.

The past few months have been painful for Bitcoin (BTC) bulls, but they are not alone. The United States Federal Reserve’s tightening economic policy has led investors to seek protection in cash positions and inflation-protected bonds. 

Surging inflation and recession signals have caused the S&P 500 stock market index to retreat 19% year-to-date. Even gold — previously considered a safe asset — is suffering the consequences, trading down 20% from its all-time high.

The increasing costs of a home mortgage added fear that a housing crisis might be underway. Since the Fed started raising interest rates in March, borrowing costs have gone up and up, and mortgage rates have reached multi-decade highs.

Regardless of the prevailing bearish sentiment, Bitcoin bulls could still profit by $270 million on Friday’s options expiry.

$640 million in options expire on Nov. 4

According to the Nov. 4 options expiry open interest, Bitcoin bears concentrated their bets between $16,000 and $20,000. These levels might seem gloomy right now, but Bitcoin was trading below $19,500 two weeks ago.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Nov. 4. Source: Coinglass

At first sight, the $335-million put (sell) options dominate the $305-million call (buy) instruments, but the 0.92 call-to-put ratio does not really tell the whole story. For example, the 7.5% BTC price pump since Oct. 21 wiped out most bearish bets.

A put option gives the buyer a right to sell BTC at a fixed price at 8:00 am UTC on Nov. 4. However, if the market trades above that price, there is no value in holding that derivative contract, so its value goes to zero.

Therefore, if Bitcoin remains above $20,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Nov. 4, only $30 million of those put (sell) options will be available at the expiry.

Bulls will fight to send Bitcoin above $22,000

Here are the four most likely scenarios for Friday’s options expiry. The imbalance favoring each side represents the theoretical profit. In other words, depending on the expiry price, the active quantity of call (buy) and put (sell) contracts varies:

  • Between $19,000 and $20,000: 500 calls vs. 5,100 puts. The net result is $90 million favoring the put (bear) instruments.
  • Between $20,000 and $21,000: 3,300 calls vs. 1,500 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $40 million.
  • Between $21,000 and $22,000: 7,500 calls vs. 200 puts. The net result favors bulls by $155 million.
  • Between $22,000 and $23,000: 12,200 calls vs. 0 puts. Bulls are completely dominant, profiting $270 million.

This crude estimate considers call options used in bullish bets and put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. However, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

Bears need a sub $20,000 to secure a win

A mere 3% price dump from the current $20,500 level is enough for Bitcoin bears to secure a $90 million profit on the Nov. 4 options expiry. However, these traders have undergone a $780 million liquidation in futures contracts between Oct. 24 and Oct. 28, meaning they might have less margin to subdue bulls’ upward pressure.

For now, Bitcoin bears need to catch short-term negative headwinds triggered by tighter macroeconomic conditions to secure a win.

Consequently, options market data slightly favors the call (buy) options, even though a $270 million profit seems distant for BTC bulls.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

3 major mistakes to avoid when trading crypto futures and options

Leverage and hedging strategies are powerful ways to use derivatives contracts, but traders usually succumb to these three major mistakes.

Novice traders are usually drawn to futures and options markets due to the promise of high returns. These traders watch influencers post incredible gains, and at the same time, the multiple advertisements from derivatives exchanges that offer 100x leverage are at times irresistible for most. 

Although traders can effectively increase gains with recurring derivatives contracts, a few mistakes can quickly turn the dream of outsized gains into nightmares and an empty account. Even experienced investors in traditional markets fall victim to issues particular t cryptocurrency markets.

Cryptocurrency derivatives function similarly to traditional markets because buyers and sellers enter into contracts dependent on an underlying asset. The contract cannot be transferred across different exchanges, nor can it be withdrawn.

Most exchanges offer options contracts priced in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), so the gains or losses will vary according to the asset’s price fluctuations. Options contracts also offer the right to acquire and sell at a later date for a predetermined price. This gives traders the ability to build leverage and hedging strategies.

Let’s investigate three common errors to avoid when trading futures and options.

Convexity can kill your account

The first issue traders face when trading cryptocurrency derivatives is called convexity. In this situation, the margin deposit changes its value as the underlying asset’s price oscillates. As Bitcoin’s price increases, the investor’s margin rises in U.S. dollar terms, allowing additional leverage.

The issue emerges when the opposite movement occurs and BTC price collapses; consequently, the users’ deposited margin decreases in U.S. dollar terms. Traders often get too excited when trading futures contracts, and positive headwinds reduce their leverage as BTC price increases.

The main takeaway is that traders should not increase positions solely due to the delivery caused by the increasing value of margin deposits.

Isolated margin has benefits and risks

Derivatives exchanges require users to transfer funds from their regular spot wallets to futures markets, and some will offer an isolated margin for perpetual and monthly contracts. Traders have the option to select between cross collateral, meaning the same deposit serves multiple positions or is isolated.

There are benefits for each option, but novice traders tend to get confused and are liquidated due to failing to administer the margin deposits correctly. On the other hand, isolated margin offers more flexibility to support risk, but it requires additional maneuvers to prevent excessive liquidations.

To solve such an issue, one should always use cross margin and manually enter the stop loss on every trade.

Beware, not every options market has liquidity

Another common mistake involves trading illiquid options markets. Trading illiquid options drives up the cost of opening and closing positions, and options already have embedded expenses due to crypto’s high volatility.

Options traders should ensure the open interest is at least 50x the number of contacts desired to trade. Open interest represents the number of outstanding contracts with a strike price and expiration date that have been previously bought or sold.

Understanding implied volatility can also help traders make better decisions about the current price of an options contract and how they might change in the future. Keep in mind that an option’s premium increases alongside higher implied volatility.

The best strategy is to avoid buying calls and puts with excessive volatility.

It takes time to master derivatives trading, so traders should start small and test each function and market ahead of placing large bets.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin traders were ready for a hot CPI report, but BTC bears are still in control

BTC nose-dived to its lowest level since Sept. 21, and data shows pro traders continue to avoid leverage longs.

Cryptocurrency traders were caught by surprise after the Oct. 13 Consumer Price Index Report showed inflation in the United States rising by 0.6% in September versus the previous month. The slightly higher-than-expected number caused Bitcoin (BTC) to face a 4.4% price correction from $19,000 to $18,175 in less than three hours. 

The abrupt movement caused $55 million in Bitcoin futures liquidations at derivatives exchanges, the largest amount in three weeks. The $18,200 level was the lowest since Sept. 21 and marks an 8.3% weekly correction.

Bitcoin/USD 1-hour price. Source: TradingView

It is worth highlighting that the dip under $18,600 on Sept. 21 lasted less than 5 hours. Bears were likely disappointed as a 6.3% rally took place on Sept. 22, causing Bitcoin to test the $19,500 resistance. A similar trend is happening on Oct. 13 as BTC currently trades near $19,000.

The stock market also reacted negatively as the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index moved down 3% after the inflation data was released. After the initial panic selling, Nasdaq adjusted to a 2% daily loss as analysts reaffirmed their expectations toward a 0.75% interest rate increase by the U.S. Federal Reserve Committee in November.

Investors became even more bearish after BlackRock Inc (BLK) reported a 16% drop in profit versus the previous year. Meanwhile, financial heavyweights JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are set to report on Oct. .

Contrary to U.S. President Joe Biden’s appeal, Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs put out a rare statement on Oct. 13 defending the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ production cut. The White House wanted to delay the decision until after the midterms. Nevertheless, the oil producer group decided to decrease the supply target by 2 million barrels per day beginning in November.

All of these developments are increasing investors’ bearish emotions. ao get a better gauge on what is happening in the crypto sector, traders should look at derivatives data to see if investors were taken by surprise after the 4.4% dip below $18,200.

Futures markets were bearish for the past month

Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets. They are, however, professional traders’ preferred instruments because they prevent the fluctuation of funding rates that often occurs in a perpetual futures contract.

Bitcoin 3-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas

The indicator should trade at a 4% to 8% annualized premium in healthy markets to cover costs and associated risks. Derivatives traders had been neutral to bearish for the past month because the Bitcoin futures premium remained below 1% the entire time.

This data reflects professional traders’ unwillingness to add leveraged long (bull) positions despite the low cost. However, one must also analyze the Bitcoin options markets to exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument.

Option traders are unwilling to offer downside protection

The 25% delta skew is a telling sign when market makers and arbitrage desks are overcharging for upside or downside protection. For example, in bear markets, options investors give higher odds for a price dump, causing the skew indicator to rise above 12%. On the other hand, bullish markets tend to drive the skew indicator below negative 12%, meaning the bearish put options are discounted.

Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas

The 30-day delta skew had been above the 12% threshold since Oct. 10, signaling that options traders were less inclined to offer downside protection. These two derivatives metrics suggest that the Bitcoin price dump on Oct. 13 might have been partially expected, which explains the relatively low impact on liquidations.

More importantly, the prevailing bearish sentiment remained after the CPI inflation was announced. Consequently, whales and markers are less inclined to add leverage longs or offer downside protection. Considering the weak macroeconomic conditions and global political tension, the odds currently favor the bears.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Three Arrows Capital fund moves over 300 NFTs to a new address

According to blockchain provider Nansen, hundreds of NFTs have been moved from the 3AC-linked fund to a Gnosis Safe address.

Starry Night Capital, a nonfungible token (NFT)-focused fund launched by the co-founders of the now-bankrupt hedge fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC), has moved over 300 NFTs out of its address, according to reports. 

Starry Night Capital was founded last year by Su Zhu, Kyle Davies and pseudonymous NFT collector Vincent Van Dough. At the time, the fund planned to exclusively invest in “the most desired” NFTs on the market.

Blockchain data provider Nansen on Oct. 4 on Twitter noted that the NFTs were reportedly shifted from a wallet associated with the fund, including Pepe the Frog NFT Genesis, which sold for 1,000 Ether (ETH) in October last year, worth $3.5 million at the time. 

Nansen said the NFTs previously collected by Starry Night Capital are moving to a Gnosis Safe address. 

Gnosis Safe is a platform used to manage digital assets on Ethereum, giving users complete self-custody over funds and digital assets.

A report from Bloomberg estimates that the Starry Night Capital collection’s total value sits at around $35 million.

It comes months after the Singapore-based crypto hedge fund 3AC was ordered into liquidation by a court in the British Virgin Islands, leading to the appointment of liquidation firm Teneo, which has gained control of at least $40 million of 3AC assets so far, Cointelegraph reported in August. 

That sum, however, accounts for only a tiny fraction of the 3AC’s debt to its creditors, which amounts to at least $2.8 billion.

The NFT transfers came almost four months after Starry Night Capital’s main crypto wallet moved almost all of its digital tokens to a new address. 

The Singapore-based crypto hedge fund became one of the many crypto firms that went bankrupt following the collapse of the Terra ecosystem earlier this year. The company, which once had over $10 billion in assets under management, eventually filed for a Chapter 15 bankruptcy on July 1 in a New York court.