JPMorgan

Bitcoin holds $30K, but some pro traders are skeptical about BTC price continuation

BTC traders are cautiously optimistic due to Bitcoin traditional assets, but there are still some macro headwinds to be aware of.

Bitcoin (BTC) price has finally broken the $30,000 level after the key price zone lasted as a ten months resistance level. BTC price rallied 6.5% on April 10 and the much-awaited price gain ended an agonizing 12-day period of extremely low volatility, which saw the price hovering close to $28,200. Bulls are now confident that the bear market has officially ended, especially considering the fact that BTC price has gained 82% year-to-date.

Another interesting note is that Bitcoin’s decoupling from traditional markets has been confirmed after the S&P 500 index presented a mere 0.1% gain on April 10, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil traded down 1.2%. Bitcoin traders are likely anticipating the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy to reverse sooner than later.

Stagflation risk could be behind the decoupling

Higher interest rates make fixed-income investments more attractive, while businesses and families face additional costs to refinance their debts. The reversal of the U.S. central bank’s recent tightening movement is deemed bullish for risk assets. However, the fear of stagflation — a period of increased inflation and negative economic growth — would be the worst-case scenario for the stock market.

Fixed-income traders are betting that the Federal Reserve probably has one more interest-rate hike because the latest economic data displayed moderate resilience. For instance, the 3.5% U.S. unemployment rate announced on April 7 is the lowest measure in half a century.

The U.S. treasuries market suggests a 76% chance that the Federal Reserve will bolster the benchmark by 0.25% on April 29, according to Bloomberg. There’s also the added uncertainty of the banking crisis’s impact on the sector, with JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup scheduled to report first-quarter results on Friday.

Bitcoin’s rally above $30,000 could be the first evidence of a shift in investors’ perception from a risk market proxy to a scarce digital asset that might benefit from a period of inflation pressure and weak economic growth.

Two critical factors will determine whether the rally is sustainable: the high leverage usage increasing the odds of forced liquidations during normal price fluctuations, and whether or not pro traders are pricing higher odds of a market downturn using options instruments.

Bitcoin futures show modest improvement

Bitcoin quarterly futures are popular among whales and arbitrage desks. However, these fixed-month contracts typically trade at a slight premium to spot markets, indicating that sellers are asking for more money to delay settlement.

As a result, futures contracts in healthy markets should trade at a 5-to-10% annualized premium — a situation known as contango, which is not unique to crypto markets.

*Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch*

Bitcoin traders have been cautious in the past few weeks, and even with the recent breakout above $30,000, there has been no surge in demand for leverage longs. However, the Bitcoin futures premium has slightly improved from its recent low of 3% on April 8 to its current level of 4.2%. This suggests that buyers are not using excessive leverage and there is effective demand on regular spot markets, which is healthy for the market.

Bitcoin option traders remain neutral

Traders should also analyze options markets to understand whether the recent correction has caused investors to become more optimistic. The 25% delta skew is a telling sign when arbitrage desks and market makers overcharge for upside or downside protection.

In short, if traders anticipate a Bitcoin price drop, the skew metric will rise above 7%, and phases of excitement tend to have a negative 7% skew.

*Bitcoin 60-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas.ch*

Currently, the options delta 25% skew has shifted from a balanced demand between call and put options on April 9 to a modest 4% discount for protective puts on April 10. While this indicates a slight increase in confidence, it is not enough to break the 7% threshold for moderate bullishness.

In essence, Bitcoin options and futures markets suggest that pro traders are slightly more confident, but not excessively optimistic. The initial decoupling from traditional markets is promising because investors are showing confidence that crypto markets will benefit from higher inflationary pressure and it highlights traders’ belief the Fed can no longer continue raising interest rates.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Coinbase cut costs and bolstered rep, but profits remain challenged: Analysts

Analysts from Moody’s and JPMorgan hailed the exchange for its strong reputation but said it wouldn’t be enough to solve its profitability woes.

Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase won’t escape from the profitability challenges it will face from the crypto market downturn, despite having a strong brand and credibility in the crypto market, according to investment analysts.

Credit rating firm Moody’s released a note on Coinbase on Jan. 19 discussing its downgrade of the company’s senior debt and corporate family rating (CFR) — a rating assigned to reflect the opinion of a company’s ability to honor its financial obligations.

Coinbase’s CFR and senior debt were re-graded to B2 and B1, from Ba3 and Ba2, respectively, indicating the firm is “non-investment grade” and “speculative and subject to high credit risk” according to Moody’s.

The firm noted that Coinbase is suffering from “substantially weakened revenue and cash flow generation” due to “challenging conditions,” specifically depressed crypto prices and lower trading activity.

The market conditions saw Coinbase lay off 20% of its employees, around 950 people, on Jan. 10, its second wave of recent major layoffs following its June 18% headcount slash in a bid to cut costs.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong at a conference in 2018. In the most recent round of layoffs, he said the firm needed “the appropriate operational efficiency to weather downturns in the crypto market.” Source: *Flickr*

However, despite Coinbase’s bid to preserve liquidity, Moody’s still expected “the company’s profitability to remain challenged.”

The bankruptcy of its crypto exchange peer, FTX, is a cause for heightened concern and uncertainty regarding crypto regulation according to Moody’s.

It said a sudden move by regulators in the crypto industry could negatively impact Coinbase’s revenue through increased costs of regulatory compliance.

Moody’s added, however, that increased oversight “could ultimately favor the relatively more mature and compliant crypto-asset platforms such as Coinbase.”

Meanwhile, a separate note from analysts at JPMorgan argued that Coinbase’s credibility and reputation in the industry have strengthened after recent collapses.

“While the crypto-ecosystem has suffered further meaningful credibility issues, Coinbase has emerged with its credibility and brand strengthened — at least relatively.”

The financial firm’s analysts maintained a rating of “neutral” for Coinbase and said the company could even be a “beneficiary of the challenges” other exchanges have faced in the wake of FTX’s collapse.

The upcoming Shanghai hard fork for the Ethereum blockchain could also be a positive for the exchange, according to JPMorgan’s analysts.

The upgrade “could usher in a new era of staking for Coinbase” with analysts estimating 95% of retail investors on the platform may stake Ethereum post-upgrade, netting Coinbase up to nearly $600 million a year.

On Jan. 6, Coinbase shares hit an all-time low of $31.95 after over a year of constant price declines, according to Yahoo Finance data. The day earlier, veteran investor and ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood loaded up on $5.7 million worth of Coinbase shares.

Since then the share price of Coinbase and other crypto-related companies have surged.

Coinbase gained 72.6% since the Jan. 6 low and traded at over $55 at the close of market on Jan. 20, where it saw an 11.6% gain on the day.

Bitcoin derivatives data shows room for BTC price to move higher this week

BTC options data suggest that the Bitcoin price rally still has legs, even with wider economic concerns growing and the potential of a brief pause in the crypto market rally.

This week Bitcoin (BTC) rallied to a 2023 high at $23,100 and the move followed a notable recovery in traditional markets, especially the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index, which gained 2.9% on Jan. 20.

Economic data continues to boost investors’ hope that the United States Federal Reserve will reduce the pace and length of interest rate hikes. For instance, sales of previously owned homes fell 1.5% in December, the 11th consecutive decline after high mortgage rates in the United States severely impacted demand.

On Jan. 20, Google announced that 12,000 workers were laid off, more than 6% of its global workforce. The bad news continues to trigger buying activity on risk assets, but Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, chief U.S. equity strategist at JPMorgan, expects weaker earnings guidance to “put downward pressure” on the stock market.

The fear of recession increased on Jan. 20 after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that a soft recession should be tolerated if it meant bringing inflation down.

Some analysts have pegged Bitcoin’s gains to Digital Currency Group filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection — allowing the troubled Genesis Capital to seek the reorganization of debts and its business activities. But, more importantly, the move decreases the risk of a fire sale on Grayscale Investments assets, including the $13.3 billion trust fund Grayscale GBTC.

Let’s look at derivatives metrics to understand better how professional traders are positioned in the current market conditions.

Bitcoin margin longs dropped after the pump to $21,000

Margin markets provide insight into how professional traders are positioned because it allows investors to borrow cryptocurrency to leverage their positions.

For example, one can increase exposure by borrowing stablecoins to buy Bitcoin. On the other hand, Bitcoin borrowers can only short the cryptocurrency as they bet on its price declining. Unlike futures contracts, the balance between margin longs and shorts isn’t always matched.

*OKX stablecoin/BTC margin lending ratio. Source: OKX*

The above chart shows that OKX traders’ margin lending ratio increased from Jan. 12 to Jan. 16, signaling that professional traders increased their leverage longs as Bitcoin gained 18%.

However, the indicator reversed its trend as the excessive leverage, 35 times larger for buying activity on Jan. 16, retreated to a neutral-to-bullish level on Jan. 20.

Currently at 15, the metric favors stablecoin borrowing by a wide margin and indicates that shorts are not confident about building bearish leveraged positions.

Still, such data does not explain whether pro traders became less bullish or decided to reduce their leverage by depositing additional margin. Hence, one should analyze options markets to understand if the sentiment has changed.

Options traders are neutral despite the recent rally

The 25% delta skew is a telling sign whenever arbitrage desks and market makers are overcharging for upside or downside protection.

The indicator compares similar call (buy) and put (sell) options and will turn positive when fear is prevalent because the protective put options premium is higher than risk call options.

In short, the skew metric will move above 10% if traders fear a Bitcoin price crash. On the other hand, generalized excitement reflects a negative 10% skew.

*Bitcoin 60-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas*

As displayed above, the 25% delta skew reached its lowest level in more than 12 months on Jan. 15. Option traders were finally paying a premium for bullish strategies instead of the opposite.

Currently, at minus 2%, the delta skew signals that investors are pricing similar odds for bull and bear cases, which is somewhat less optimistic than expected considering the recent rally toward $22,000.

Derivatives data puts the bullish case in check as buyers using stablecoin margin significantly reduced their leverage and option markets are pricing similar risks for either side. On the other hand, bears have not found a level where they would be comfortable opening short positions by borrowing Bitcoin on margin markets.

Traditional markets continue to play a crucial role in setting the trend, but Bitcoin bulls have no reason to fear as long as derivatives metrics remain healthy.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

FTX names Kroll as claims agent, to update users on bankruptcy developments

Claims and noticing agents such as Kroll are often assigned to bankruptcy cases where the number of creditors exceeds a thousand.

Bankrupt crypto exchange FTX has appointed restructuring administration firm Kroll as its agent to track all claims against FTX and ensure interested parties are notified of developments throughout its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.

Known as the “claims and noticing agent,” Kroll was appointed to the role on Nov. 12, with the news made public on Nov. 17 and aims to compile a database of all claims against FTX Trading and 101 affiliated companies.

Press Release:

FTX Group has established Kroll as its claims agent, and all official documents filed with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court can be found online at https://t.co/7Bsn9Ggckf. pic.twitter.com/OFuCmlJXgJ

— FTX (@FTX_Official) November 17, 2022

At the time of writing, this database lists only eight claims, including one from Singaporean-based blockchain development firm Ethereal Tech for $11.7 million, but will soon be fleshed out as more claims against the group are lodged.

For example, one other case that Kroll has worked on, that of rental car company Hertz, has 62,061 claims against it from its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.

The eight claims currently included already amount to $40.9 million, though FTX Trading alone is understood to owe customers and investors as much as $8 billion.

Within the filing, the firm has also compiled a list of interested parties it will keep updated on developments, which it acknowledges is incomplete and does not currently include customers.

This list is currently composed of approximately 750 parties who have some kind of interest in the case, with some of the included groups consisting of debtors, banks, landlords, insurance providers, directors, landlords and regulators.

Some noteworthy names included in the list are National Australia Bank (NAB), Apple, Facebook, JPMorgan, Chainalysis, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Circle, Stephen Curry, Reddit and Yuga Labs.

Meanwhile, the number of creditors involved with FTX is thought to be in excess of one million, and corporate securities lawyer Margaret Rosenfeld told Cointelegraph it will take years before any begin to receive any funds back, adding:

“You can’t make creditor distributions until these claims are analyzed. It’s also way too early to speculate on what kind of distribution creditors will get back. Though in mega cases, such as this, full recovery would be unusual.”

Kroll Restructuring Administration is an indirect subsidiary of Kroll LLC, which is one of the world’s largest corporate intelligence companies. Notably, the firm had been employed by Harvey Weinstein on multiple occasions, including when allegations of sexual harassment were brought against him in 2016.

The parent company offers a wide range of services in areas such as environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG), valuation, compliance, cyber risk, investigations and corporate finance.

On Nov. 15, regulators in the Bahamas argued that FTX’s new CEO lacks the authority to initiate Chapter 11 proceedings in the United States, with the provisional liquidator overseeing the bankruptcy proceedings of FTX Digital Markets in the Bahamas rejecting the “validity of any purported attempt to place FTX Affiliates in bankruptcy.”

MATIC price eyes 200% gains on Polygon adoption by Instagram, JPMorgan

Polygon’s list of high-profile partners is getting longer, with Disney, Starbucks and Robinhood already boarding its blockchain.

Polygon (MATIC) emerged as the best-performing asset among the top-ranking cryptocurrencies on Nov. 3 as the market’s attention turned to the latest Instagram and JPMorgan announcements.

Polygon in high-profile partnerships

Notably, Meta, the parent company of Instagram, named Polygon as its initial partner for its upcoming nonfungible token (NFT) tools that allow users to mint, showcase and sell their digital collectibles on and off the social media platform.

Meanwhile, banking giant JPMorgan used Polygon to conduct its first live trade (worth about $71,000) on a public blockchain, marking a concrete step toward integrating cryptocurrencies into traditional financial frameworks.

MATIC, a utility and staking token within the Polygon blockchain ecosystem, rose over 13% to $0.985 after the announcements, accompanied by an uptick in daily trading volume.

*MATIC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

MATIC’s upside move came as a part of a broader recovery rally across the crypto sector that started in mid-June. MATIC’s price has rebounded by more than 200%, a trend that will likely sustain in the coming months.

MATIC’s price nears cup-and-handle breakout

The first cue for MATIC’s bullish continuation comes from a classic technical setup.

On the daily chart, MATIC has painted a cup-and-handle setup, which comprises a U-shaped recovery followed by a downward drifting channel. The token is now eyeing a decisive breakout above the pattern’s neckline range (the red bar in the chart below) to reach $2.89, its primary upside target.

*MATIC/USD daily price chart featuring cup-and-handle pattern. Source: TradingView*

As a rule of technical analysis, a cup-and-handle pattern’s target is measured after adding the distance between the cup’s bottom and neckline to the potential breakout point. As a result, MATIC is now eyeing a 200% price rally by the end of Q1 2023.

Fundamentally, MATIC’s demand could keep growing, given Polygon’s growing NFT projects launched by mainstream companies.

For instance, Polygon’s list of prominent NFT partners includes names such as Disney, Robinhood and Starbucks. Furthermore, Polygon had a strong Q3, wherein its number of active wallets reached a record high of 6 million, primarily driven by the launch of Reddit’s NFT marketplace on its blockchain.

*Polygon NFTs had the strongest Q3 performance in 2022. Source: Messari*

On the other hand, macro risks continue to threaten the ongoing crypto market recovery, which may hurt Polygon despite its growing partnerships with big-name brands. That being said, a strong pullback from the cup-and-handle pattern neckline range could invalidate the bullish setup altogether.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

‘Most of crypto is still junk’ and lacks use case — JPMorgan blockchain head

JPMorgan’s Umar Farooq said that use cases haven’t arisen fully and regulation hasn’t yet caught up.

The head of JPMorgan’s digital assets unit Umar Farooq has suggested that most of the crypto assets on the market are “junk” and that real crypto use cases have yet to fully present themselves.

During a panel discussion at the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s Green Shoots Seminar on Tuesday, Farooq stated that regulation is yet to catch up to the burgeoning industry, which is holding back many traditional financial (TradFi) institutions from getting involved.

He also opined that with the exception of a few, utility for most crypto assets is lacking:

“Most of crypto is still junk actually, I mean with the exception of I would say, a few dozen tokens, everything else that has been mentioned is either noise or frankly, is just gonna go away.”

“So in my mind, the use cases haven’t arisen fully, and the regulation hasn’t caught up and I think that’s why you see the financial industry, in general, being a little bit slow in catching up,” added Farooq, who serves as CEO of JPMorgan’s blockchain unit Onyx Digital Assets (ODA).

The JPMorgan executive also argued that the sector hasn’t matured enough to where it can be utilized at scale to facilitate high-value “serious transactions” between TradFi institutions, or to host products such as tokenized deposits (an existing bank deposit held as a liability against depository institutions).

Instead, Farooq suggested crypto, blockchain and the broader Web3 movement is primarily providing a vehicle for wild speculation at this stage:

“You need all of those things to mature so that you can actually do things with them. Right now, we’re just not there yet, most of the money that’s being used in Web3 today, in the current infrastructure, is for speculative investment.”

While JPMorgan has become relatively crypto-friendly over the past couple of years, the banking giant is primarily focused on blockchain technology and how it can be used to specifically improve TradFi services.

Crypto Biz: Step aside, Warren Buffett; stablecoin issuers hold more US debt than Berkshire Hathaway

In May, Cointelegraph reported that JPMorgan had trialed tokenized collateral settlements via its own private blockchain. The test saw two of its entities transfer a tokenized representation of Black Rock Inc. money market fund shares.

Bitcoin derivatives data suggests bears will pin BTC below $21K leading in Friday’s options expiry

Bitcoin’s failure to break above $22,000 on July 8 opened room for bears to score a $100 million profit in this week’s options expiry.

Most Bitcoin (BTC) traders would rather see a sharp price correction and a subsequent recovery than agonize for multiple months below $24,000. However, BTC has been doing the opposite since June 14 and its most recent struggle is the asset’s failure to break above the $22,000 resistance. For this reason, most traders are holding back their bullish expectations until BTC posts a daily close above $24,000.

Events outside of the crypto market are the primary factor impacting investors’ perspectives on digital assets and on July 14, United States Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that inflation is “unacceptably high” and she reinforced the support of the Federal Reserve’s efforts. When questioned about the impact of rising interest rates on the economy, Yellen recognized the risk of a recession.

On the same day, JPMorgan Chase reported a 28% decline in profits versus the previous year despite recording stable revenues. The difference comes chiefly from a $1.1 billion provision for credit losses because of a “modest deterioration” in its economic outlook.

Bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 remains incredibly high and investors fear that a potential crisis in the global financial sector will inevitably lead to a retest of the $17,600 low from June 18.

*S&P 500 and Bitcoin/USD 30-day correlation. Source: TradingView*

The correlation metric ranges from a negative 1, meaning select markets move in opposite directions, to a positive 1, which reflects a perfect and symmetrical movement. A disparity or a lack of relationship between the two assets would be represented by 0.

The S&P 500 and Bitcoin 30-day correlation presently stands at 0.87, which has been the norm for the past four months.

Most bullish bets are above $21,000

Bitcoin’s failure to break above $22,000 on July 8 took bulls by surprise because only 2% of the call (buy) options for July 15 have been placed below $20,000. Thus, Bitcoin bears are slightly better positioned for the $250 million weekly options expiry.

*Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for July 15. Source: CoinGlass*

A broader view using the 1.15 call-to-put ratio shows more bullish bets because the call (buy) open interest stands at $134 million against the $116 million put (sell) options. Nevertheless, as Bitcoin currently stands below $21,000, most bullish bets will likely become worthless.

If Bitcoin’s price remains below $21,000 at 8:00 am UTC on July 15, only $25 million worth of these calls (buy) options will be available. This difference happens because there is no use in the right to buy Bitcoin at $21,000 if it trades below that level on expiry.

Bears could pocket a $100 million profit

Below are the three most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on July 15 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

Between $18,000 and $19,000: 10 calls vs. 5,200 puts. The net result favors bears by $100 million.
Between $19,000 and $20,000: 200 calls vs. 3,400 puts. The net result gives bears a $60 million advantage.
Between $20,000 and $21,000: 1,300 calls vs. 1,700 puts. The net result is balanced between bulls and bears.

This crude estimate considers the call options used in bullish bets and the put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

Futures markets show bears are better positioned

Bitcoin bears need to pressure the price below $19,000 on July 15 to secure a $100 million profit. On the other hand, the bulls’ best-case scenario requires a push above $20,000 to balance the scales.

The lack of appetite from professional traders in the Bitcoin CME futures indicates that bulls are less inclined to push the price higher in the short term.

With that said, the most probable scenario favors bears, and to secure this Bitcoin price only needs to trade below $21,000 going into the July 15 options expiry.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.