Journeys

Journeys: Hervé Larren on Bitcoin, Apes and the psychology of ‘blue-chip’ NFTs

Hervé Larren’s crypto journey has taken him from luxury goods to Bitcoin mining and back full circle to the world of “blue-chip” NFTs.

During a period of hyperinflation in 2013, my Venezuelan mother asked me to send money to Caracas, the countrys capital, Herv Larren recalls. However, bank transfers were not possible between the two countries. 

Busy with work in New York, he told a friend that he planned to fly to Caracas carrying cash for his mother and return the same day. Why dont you just send Bitcoin? his friend asked, which quickly led to a change of plans as Larren made his first Bitcoin transfer.

My first crypto transaction, in 2013, was to wire Bitcoin from the U.S. to Venezuela. Due to the economic collapse, there was no functioning banking system between these two countries.

Switching from a career with luxury goods company LVMH Mot Hennessy Louis Vuitton, Larren co-founded a large-scale crypto mining operation and worked with Grayscale to bring crypto assets to old-school investors. He later became a key adviser to ApeCoin and the first person to bid a million dollars for a nonfungible token.

From old to new

We were reporting to Nicolas Sarkozy, and he was coming to our meetings, Larren recalls of his time as the head of a high school student council in Neuilly-sur-Seine, the wealthiest old-money suburb of Paris, where he grew up. 

Sarkozy served as the local mayor for 20 years before becoming the president of France. Larrens mother from Venezuela was a TV host and the first Latina model signed by the LOreal cosmetics brand. His French father imported wine to Canada,  where a third of the population is French-speaking.

In the late 90s, Larren began undergraduate business studies at Montreals Concordia University. In 2019, Concordia labeled him The Blockchain Maven as part of a 50 Under 50 alumni distinction. Upon graduation, he got a job at Mot Hennessys New York office, where he worked on brand development of the firms Hennessy cognac brand in the United States.

Larren worked on his MBA at Columbia University part time while at LVMH, graduating in 2010 and entering the venture capital world with Peak Ventures, which was involved in tech companies including Twitter. It was Larrens first experience in the technology sector, which he describes as very different from the old-world, intergenerational luxury goods industry.

Larren quickly moved to accept Bitcoin at an e-commerce business he was involved with, a company that helped charities raise money by partnering with celebrities. In 2015, he formed crypto mining firm Global Crypto Ventures, which grew into an operation of nearly 3,000 machines composed primarily of Bitmain Antminer S9 miners in Las Vegas and Texas, where the cost of infrastructure and electricity was cheaper. 

Larren at his mining facility. (Herv Larren)

Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund 

While speaking at the 2017 World Technology Forum in New York, Larren met Digital Currency Group CEO Barry Silbert, who was talking right after him about the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, through which retail investors could get exposure to Bitcoin through their brokerage. He was also working on a new investment vehicle called Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC), which represented a weighted portfolio of cryptocurrencies, including Ether, MATIC, ADA and SOL, in addition to Bitcoin. 

As a publicly traded investment instrument, it would require approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission. One relevant matter would be to ensure that the fund could buy its digital assets from a trusted source, preferably from within the United States. Larrens mining firm was an ideal source, and having a ready buyer for mining proceeds made business smoother.

This opportunity represented Larrens first foray into crypto beyond Bitcoin, and it attracted me to a new space.

Working with the SEC was no easy task, Larren recalls. It was a nerve-racking process. Though the company was very confident about getting approval, there was a lot of uncertainty because no such investment trust had been approved previously.

However, the GDLC was approved, expanding the potential pool of crypto investors. Though many in the industry continue to preach the not your keys, not your coins mantra, Larren argues that just as with stocks, owning Bitcoin and other crypto assets through a financial instrument instead of on an exchange or cold-storage device is preferable for most of the public.

There is less risk of being hacked or losing access to keys, and regulated funds must meet stringent security policies and often carry insurance. He also notes that they are easier to manage on a portfolio basis, particularly regarding taxation and being more straightforward for accountants to understand.

Will BlackRocks Bitcoin ETF be approved?

These advantages make it easy to see why heavyweights of the financial industry see an opportunity in offering Bitcoin investment vehicles accessible to retail investors. One of these is BlackRock, which recently applied to launch a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund in the United States.

BlackRock offers the credibility to convince the SEC that the Bitcoin market can be operated safely and has much to offer investors, Larren says optimistically. He expects that with BlackRocks track record of 575 approved ETFs versus one denial, it will soon come online, with similar products expected in other markets.

I think it would lead to an automatic rise in Bitcoins price. I think many people are on the sidelines waiting for clarity, and thats a step in Bitcoins institutional adoption.

For a very long time, Grayscale had a premium on its shares compared with the price of Bitcoin, Larren notes, explaining that the security, certainty and convenience meant that more conservative investors were historically willing to pay more per BTC. BlackRocks ETF is unlikely to hold a large premium, which would serve to make the market more efficient.

All roads in Decentraland lead to Beeple

Larren first heard about the metaverse through Decentralands initial coin offering in August 2017. They were selling 90,000 pieces of NFT land in the metaverse, he recalls, adding that he felt a proximity to the projects Argentine founders due to South Americas shared currency issues. My first NFT purchase was actually buying my name in the metaverse, he says, recalling how he spent 100 MANA to name his avatar.

He was also given a piece of land on which to build the Airvey art gallery, where Larren placed various NFTs for sale. When Christies announced it would auction Beeples Everydays piece in its first-ever NFT auction in March 2021 a story previously covered by Magazine the auction house contacted the Airvey gallery to invite bids.

I wanted to be the first person in the world who bid seven figures on an NFT.

Well that escalated quickly was Beeples only comment when Larrens bid for $1 million came through, representing the first volley in a bidding battle that would see an anonymous buyer later revealed as Vignesh Sundaresan, also known as Metakovan, beat Tron founder Justin Sun with a record-setting bid of $69 million.

Beeple posted his reaction to the $1 million bid on Instagram.

Bored Apes design ApeCoin

With a newfound passion for NFTs, Larren joined Horizen Labs in 2021, months before the firm began discussions with Yuga Labs, a small company where four founders were working on an NFT project involving monkeys.

Yuga contracted Horizen Labs to create ApeCoin, a large allocation of which was distributed to holders of Yugas NFT collections including Bored Ape Yacht Club, Mutant Ape Yacht Club and Bored Ape Kennel Club via massive airdrop. 

We did everything from the white paper, tokenomics, to listing on exchanges. In less than 20 minutes, it became an $8 billion project, Larren says, referring to the tokens undiluted market cap, now about $2 billion. In addition to the launch, Larren notes that Horizen Labs designed the tokens staking mechanism, which will see 100 million tokens distributed to the community over three years.

As Gucci and TAG Heuer began accepting ApeCoin as a form of payment, Larrens luxury contacts came calling back.

I spent a week with Chanels team at a castle in the English countryside, educating them on all aspects of Web3, including MetaMask and NFT drops. Larren observes that as he moved from the most successful physical goods company, LVMH, to the most successful digital goods company, Yuga Labs, the thought process was the same.

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He describes metaverse real estate and PFPs, which include Yugas famous monkey pictures, as fitting into a broad category of consumer NFTs that are purchased by individuals in a way not dissimilar to luxury goods. Indeed, he notes that many of LVMH founder Bernard Arnaults children heirs of the worlds second-richest man are actively dabbling in them.

Larren overlooking the Horizen Labs office floor in Milan. (Elias Ahonen)

People want to feel that they are part of an exclusive community with like-minded individuals, he explains, relating the concept sold in luxury boutiques and exclusive events the world over. In the case of Yugas NFTs, he argues that there is value for many people in being members of a group that shares similar cultural references, whether it being digital or at concerts, referring to events like ApeFest, the next of which will take place in Hong Kong in November.

Can an ape JPG really be a blue-chip NFT?

NFTs that gain mass appeal as recognizable status symbols are often labeled as blue chip among the NFT community, a nod to a term typically referring to reliable stocks and originally derived from poker, where blue chips are traditionally the most valuable. 

Its a brand-building element as recognition of industry and buyers. Supply is far less than demand, and there is a strong fan and collector base. In traditional art, Picasso and Jean-Michel Basquiat are blue chips, he explains, noting that Bored Apes and CryptoPunks hold such a position within the PFP hierarchy.

The price is a result of the value that has been created. When you go to a Louis Vuitton store, the price is nowhere to be seen.

Holding a BAYC can make sense because you can stake it to earn tokens, and it can act as a financial instrument because you can borrow against it, he notes, naturally enough, considering his company designed the staking mechanism. 

Larren poses in Milan with images of NFTs, including a Bored Ape and an Otherside land plot. (Elias Ahonen)

There are blue chips in other categories as well, such as metaverse land, he adds, cautioning that its value, like traditional real estate, will depend on the income generated with it. 

This is because, in his opinion, people will not remain interested in vast spaces of empty metaverse land but rather in spaces that are built up and useful, like his art gallery. Traditional real estate involves buildings the same will be true of metaverse land.

Where might we look for the next crop of blue chips?

Im now passionate about building on top of Bitcoin with BRC-20s and Ordinals, Larren explains, hinting that something big is in the works. For him, the coming metaverse is a place and time when your digital life is more important than your physical life and where digital image matters more than physical image. In this new environment, he believes that the Bitcoin chain, with its newfound capability to host NFTs, will hold a key position as a central pillar.

In Web3, you need to anticipate how consumer taste will evolve and what the market will want in the next six months.

$54B fund partner runs women-only DAO, LatAm blockchain gaming guild

Clara Bullrich helps run a $54B investment fund, a women-only DAO and she founded a gaming guild to teach gamers in Latin America play to earn.

Clara Bullrich must have cloned herself or possibly invoked dark forces that shouldnt be meddled with. Somehow, shes managed to cram about four careers into one life.

Her main gig is leading her own financial entity, AlTi, managing a whopping investment fund, which grew to $54 billion under management following a recent merger. Thats a big enough job in itself.

A member of Women in Blockchain, she also runs a women-only DAO, Komorebi, that concentrates on funding female and non-gender-specific projects.

Ive seen in crypto that theres very few women, and I really want to push that as much as I can, she says. For me, its always important to have skin in the game.

And if that wasnt enough, shes also the founder of a gaming guild, Ola Guild Games (OlaGG), that hopes to upskill the quarter of a billion mobile gamers in Latin America so they can boost their incomes using play-to-earn blockchain games. 

She tells Magazine she feels lucky to have been involved with cryptocurrencies, DAOs and the metaverse at this early stage.

My sons are nine and 11 and will live through the entire cycle of what blockchain and crypto are creating right now. And I feel super hopeful around that.

Hailing from Argentina, after studying in the United States and Ireland, she worked for a short time for the Spanish Santander bank in the United States. She didnt stay there long. Laboring in the stuffy, conventional world of traditional finance clearly does not float her boat. Her favorite word is disruptive.

Bitcoin is just money supported by math. I came across it about seven years ago. At first, I was very uncomfortable with that, then I thought: The big disruptions are the ones you should walk towards.

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Disruptive innovation

After a short stint at Santander, she was headhunted by an Argentine tech company called Collective Mind, which grew rapidly. Then in 2000, she started a family office business for high-net-worth clients under the umbrella of Guggenheim Partners. In those days, family offices werent as prevalent as today.

Over 23 years, she expanded her operations from Latin America to other parts of the world. Three years ago, this fund management business became Alvarium Investment Advisors, managing over $20 billion in investments, then recently merged with two other companies to form Alvarium Tiedemann Holdings, AlTi, with over $54 billion under management.

Bullrich had some challenges persuading her clients to invest in disruptive technology, including Bitcoin, but first, she had to persuade her colleagues of the merits of investing in progress rather than simple money-making schemes. 

My discussions with my partners were very much around: We should be investing in tech with tech expertise, not financial expertise. 

Her intention was to back technology that would have beneficial effects in the longer term, rather than simply looking at a financial balance sheet.

She set up the Digital Assets Committee at Alvarium Tiedemann in 2019.

What you have to realize is that most people there are traditional investors, so the idea of crypto, blockchain, Web3, digital assets these were really foreign to them.

She continues, And so being able to start that committee has allowed me to educate traditional investors about the potential of digital assets and blockchain technology. She continues, I wanted to create that level of expertise to be able to understand trends, why certain disruptions make more sense than others.

She feels the mindset required is more technological and over a longer time span than in conventional finance. This led, in 2016, to her second company, which is called The Venture City.

Venture City
The Venture City is an accelerator to nurture innovative projects. Source: Venture City

The Venture City is an accelerator to nurture innovative projects, so it has the financial backing, expertise and support to reach its potential.

A major impetus behind TVC is to improve access to financial products and services. In some Latin American countries, up to 60%70% of people do not have bank accounts, restricting their ability to improve their situation. Bullrich sees TVCs investments as a means of combining technology and financial expertise with a beneficial social product.

We have already 100 companies who passed through the accelerator, and were actually starting Fund 3. So, we did Fund 1 with $52 million, Fund 2 with $75 [million], and were going in 2023 with the launch of Fund 3. It was an amazing experience. Because very early on, we were talking about community and creating a lot of events and educational sessions around the products.

Here are some examples of the many projects The Venture City has invested in:

Sturdy Exchange: Sturdy.Exchange is an NFT-based Web3 token in the Flow ecosystem. It aims to decentralize music distribution. It is a platform for artists, musicians and entertainers to reach their audiences with a new form of ownership and utility using NFTs. 

Belo: A wallet app that uses Argentine pesos and crypto with a DeFi yield platform built in so users can receive regular returns. It aims to be an accessible cryptocurrency introduction.

Gamer Safe: This is an app to make online multiplayer gaming safer and more pleasant, by removing cheaters, fake and duplicated accounts, and policing toxicity and dishonesty in games. 

Women in Blockchain

She joined Women in Blockchain (WiB) last year and hopes to develop womens skills, opportunities and aspirations in the cryptocurrency sector.

We are providing that platform where women can meet and be part of those conversations and move forward in terms of education, she says. We can become connectors of people needing a certain kind of expertise and people with that expertise can link up with those who need it.

So, WiBs a completely different animal from my Venture City, which is doing that deep dive looking for companies and deciding what companies the fund is going to invest in.

Korembri
Komorebi is a DAO aimed at improving the representation of female and non-binary crypto folk. Source: Komorebi

Diversity in DAOs

Komorebi is a poetic, almost untranslatable, Japanese expression that describes sunlight filtering through trees. It is also a DAO on the Syndicate Protocol, dedicated to increasing diversity and breaking down barriers to entry in the blockchain space.

The thought process behind this was that women-led startups receive only 2.3% of venture funding but perform 63% better than investments with all-male founding teams, according to Venture Capital firm First Round.

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My involvement with Komorebi allows me to support and amplify the voices of women in tech and finance. Im grateful I didnt have as many hurdles of being a woman in finance, but I encountered them more in technology. So, whats crucial for me here is being able to find an opportunity to help women find their voice in blockchain and crypto.

She says adding more diversity to the crypto and blockchain world is a win-win for everyone.

Im not saying womens voices should be dominant over men; its not one or the other. What I truly believe is having diverse perspectives and experiences in decision-making leads to better outcomes, and my role is to provide an additional platform for women to showcase their passion, their vision.

When Bullrich finds a project that interests her team, she brings it to the DAO and everyone votes on whether to back it or not. The DAO is a very interesting angle for allowing people to be part of something bigger, rather than just putting money into it.

Final boss: Making a living in a poor country with P2E

Yield and Ola Guild Games: These are DAOs. Yield Guild Games (YGG) was founded by Gabby Dizon and Beryl Li in 2018 to involve Filipino players in gaming and cryptocurrency. The players can supplement their incomes with P2E winnings. OlaGG is a subDAO, which expands the successful concept geographically to the Hispanic market: Spain, Latin America outside Brazil and Hispanics in the United States.

The idea of Ola Guild Games is to create social and financial inclusion for the Hispanic Community through gaming. Its main platform is Axie Infinity, but there are options to engage with other P2E game systems as well. The concept took off in the Philippines during the pandemic, with users supplementing their tightened budgets or even multiples of the average wage with P2E gaming.

It seems like a good fit as one-third of Hispanic speakers income is $1.90 per day, which the United Nations defines as extreme poverty. Nearly half have no access to banking or financial products. However, more than 58% of the population in Latin America play mobile games, which equates to a user base of over 273 million people.

So, the idea of Ola is how can we engage with people, teach them, educate them on these new tools for Web3 to really create that financial inclusion. It might be through games, and that will be play-to-earn. 

The Guild is also creating educational programs learn-to-earn where users receive payment for educational achievements with the intention of having an employment structure, for example, in games development, to move on to when trained.

Conventional western aid purveyors will probably have heart attacks when they find developing countries blockchain-gaming their way up the development ladder, instead of subsisting on aid packages with strings attached.

While it does have a huge and clearly defined audience, the project is still in its early stages.

Co-founding Ola and working with my team in Latin America represents my desire to give back and provide opportunities in a market that does not have access to the same resources as we have here in the U.S., she says. I want to provide all that education Im seeing here on Web3, structuring DAOs, and help them adopt those technologies and bring it to life. Its not just a nice to have, its a must-have for Latin America.

By sharing my experiences and knowledge of Web3 and decentralized organizations, I hope to bring positive change to my home country [Argentina].

Socios boss’ goal? To knock crypto out of the park

What is a sports fans dream come true? To be the announcer at an AC Milan home game, in front of 75,000 roaring Rossoneri fans?

To play a football match on the hallowed turf of your beloved FC Barcelona?

To tour the garage of an F1 team pre-race, then watch the Monza Grand Prix from a VIP box?

These are some of the biggest rewards handed out as incentives to join Chiliz, or CHZ-based, fan token schemes on Socios.com. There are also lesser, but still desirable prizes, like meeting your sports idols, choosing the music to be played when your team scores a goal, or voting on the design of next years team strip.

Socios.com has now partnered with over 170 sporting clubs across 25 countries and 10 sports, including American football, soccer, basketball, cricket, esports, ice hockey, mixed martial arts, motorsports, tennis and rugby. Eighty of these organizations have already launched their official fan tokens on the Socios.com app, and it has high-profile deals with giants, such as Manchester City, Barcelona and the Aston Martin F1 Team. 

Alex Dreyfus
Alex Dreyfus chats with Magazine from his office. Source: Julian Jackson

The team captain behind this is Socios CEO Alex Dreyfus. Im French, 45 years old right now. And Ive been an internet entrepreneur for the last 25 years. I left school before [I was] 18 years old. I created my first company in 1995 at the beginning of the internet. Im the generation of the Web 1.0. So, for the last 25 years, my journey always has been to try to use the technology to create something that does not exist and try to embrace it before the others.

He started by developing a French city guide that first covered Paris, then 36 other French cities. A serial entrepreneur, he moved on to an online gaming project, with sports betting and online poker. While there are fewer regulations in France, unlike in the United Kingdom, there arent betting shops everywhere. He moved to Malta 17 years ago and, 10 years ago, cashed out his betting ventures to raise capital for his next project.

Amusingly, he started out as a Bitcoin skeptic. Coming from the highly regulated world of online gambling, he had difficulty wrapping his thoughts around a decentralized system with no supervisory body.

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Bitcoin skeptic at first

In Iceland for his honeymoon, Dreyfus came across a shop that took Bitcoin, which sparked something in the back of his mind. When he came home, he found the gaming space was full of crypto enthusiasts making money. I saw my Twitter feeds all of my friends trading crypto, talking about it.

And so, in 2017, I spent a lot of time to educate myself. He followed Andreas Antonopoulos and some other crypto influencers.

As an entrepreneur, I always try to find new opportunities not as an investment but to develop. At the end of 2017, I started to look at crypto from a sports angle.

An idea was percolating in his mind. Sports are global an international language. This means many, if not most, supporters dont live in the originating country. According to one survey, there are 253 million Manchester United soccer fans in China or nearly four times the entire population of the United Kingdom! 

Alex Dreyfus
Alex Dreyfus dreamed up fan tokens as a way to engage with a teams global fanbase.

To be sure, sports like F1 travel the world with races in different countries, but to attend sports like American Football, soccer or the National Basketball Association, you usually need to be in the host country.

Yet these worldwide fans are devoted to their teams, too, which is a huge base for a business.

Dreyfus notes that sports was ripe for disruption.

The industry hasnt been disrupted for the last 30 or 40 years, unlike most of any other industry in the world. Travel booking, dating, of course, taxis, banking they have all been more or less disrupted. Sports is still the same pretty much it was years ago. Management of these global brands can be quite risk-averse.

Fan tokens are a way to create a new revenue stream for the many supporters who live abroad.

On Jan. 6, 2018, I decided to come back to the office after Christmas and say, Lets do it. We are launching our business in that space. And at that time, we are 10, maybe 12, employees. It was a leap of faith, he says.

Fast forward to today, we are 300 employees in nine offices in the world. We are the biggest company in the blockchain/sports sector, but we are also one of the biggest mainstream blockchain products that is not an exchange or wallet. We created the concept of fan tokens.

Essentially Chiliz (CHZ) is the entry point, allowing fans to go onto socios.com and buy tokens for their favorite National Basketball League, Formula 1, rugby or other sports team. It is just like trading on any ordinary crypto exchange, except the tokens main utility is theoretically, at least to allow fans to have deeper engagement with their favorite club. The utility tokens are primarily a social investment, not a financial one.

Meet and greet
Fans meet international soccer stars Rafa Mrquez and Javier Zanetti. Source: Socios

Leveling up the fan experience

Fan tokens enable fans to vote or participate in decisions to do with their team e.g., to choose the music played when a goal is scored, scarf designs or the number a player will wear.

There is a certain similarity to DAOs: where everyone with the token has input into governance for decisions that matter to them. Dreyfus describes this as a share of governance, not ownership a kind of sports influencer. Its making fans more a participant than a passive spectator. Their top prize for soccer/football fans is Living the Dream, where fan tokenholders get to play soccer in their teams colors on the home stadium with a star player, photographers and commentator the full works.

If I had to define this experience in one word, it would be: spectacular. Barcelona soccer BAR fan tokenholder on playing on her teams pitch with fellow fans and Spanish La Ligas top player, Samuel Etoo.

Just as Chiliz and Socios were starting to take off, COVID-19 hit, and clubs had to ponder what their businesses were going to do when the stadiums were empty. So, fan tokens made a lot more sense at that point.

Strangely, first COVID-19 and the current crypto winter have worked to the advantage of Socios. Dreyfus feels that the contraction of the crypto sector is removing some of the more impractical projects, but fan tokens, with their global base in sports lovers, will be able to continue to develop without distractions.

However, the World Cup has not worked in its favor so far as many expected, and the token actually fell in the first week.

More of a marathon than a sprint

Dreyfus feels that Socios real goal (haha) at the moment is to engage the non-crypto-native fans, to convince them that fan tokens have real value to them, as they are likely to be a bit skeptical at first. Currently an Ethereum token, he says there are plans to launch its own blockchain for the sports industry.

The company is in the process of developing a sports club-based blockchain Chili Chain 2.0, which is to be based in the sports industry, with them as nodes and validators, he says. 

The first iteration of this is planned for late this year, or early next. The idea is that there would be a whole ecosystem of sports clubs and fans (and Socios.com) interacting and trading with each other, and generating revenue and rewards.

Lets give a fan the last word: To live what your idols experience is priceless there is no possible comparison.

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Wall Street disaster expert Bill Noble: Crypto spring is inevitable

“It’s 10% up or 10% down each day. I don’t have to wait five years in between crises. As a matter of fact, I only have to wait about 45 minutes.”

In another reality, Bill Noble would be just another guy in a suit behind a big desk at the Fed or the SEC, probably murmuring negative incantations like crypto is bad.

Hes certainly got the track record for it: JP Morgan, UBS, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs. But thats Noble in an evil mirror dimension. In our world, he is a true crypto guy, talking to me in a t-shirt with bicycles in the back of the room. He turned from the Dark Side and joined the rebels.

He is known for his popular YouTube podcasts and TV appearances. Currently, he is a senior market analyst at Token Metrics.

Wall Street career

While studying economics (19871991) at Rutgers University in New Jersey, he managed to wangle one of only two sought-after internships at the time at JP Morgans forex desk on Wall Street. Noble started off when trading technology was primitive and lots of analysis was done by hand on paper. In August 1990, he was put in charge of the desk, while everyone went on holiday, Cos nothing happens in August, let the kid fill in. Then Iraq invaded Kuwait, and all sorts of craziness broke out in the markets.

Charting Made Easy
John J. Murphys Charting Made Easy.

The price volatility seemed so extreme to me. I had no idea how anyone kept track of this. So, I went to the technical analyst who was attached to the currency unit. I said, I bet everybody comes to you looking for help trying to figure this out.

He goes, Actually, no one does. So, he gave me John Murphys chart book [Charting Made Easy] and took me out for sushi. And I was off to the races from there using charts.

During his years of progression through the conventional Wall Street milieu, he became an expert technical analyst, which he combined with writing reports on different markets. During crashes and Black Swan events like the 1998 implosion of Long Term Capital Management, which nearly cratered the western financial world Noble was the go-to guy. Im like a firefighter: When everybodys running out of the burning building, Im running in, he jokes.

From stocks and bonds to crypto analysis

In 2017, he became intrigued by crypto. He went to an Austin, Texas Bitcoin conference and started doing charts for Ether by hand, which eventually became a gigantic scroll as the price went up and down. Then he met Bitcoin early adopter Charlie Schrem walking through an airport (who has had a crypto career with spectacular ups and downs, even doing jail time connected to the Silk Road marketplace implosion). They got together in crypto.IQ, a consultancy service aiming to improve cryptocurrency analysis with stocks, bonds, interest rates and other mainstream data, which no one else was doing at the time.

 

 

Bill on stage
Bill Noble on stage at DCentral Miami. Source: Twitter

 

 

In September 2019, Noble joined Token Metrics as a senior market analyst. Led by CEO Ian Balina, the subscription service provides retail traders with AI-driven insights, combined with the work of analysts researching the volatile cryptocurrency markets to assist in making beneficial trades, whatever the overall conditions.

He explains it puts an artificial intelligence system together with my charting. You effectively have a quantitative research product, an institutional quantitative research product that we can deliver to retail, which, you know, is not, is not really around. I mean, there are data and service providers, but, you know, we can provide you with tools you can use yourself. Plus, we have top analysts that look at everything from charts macro to NFTs.

 

 

 

 

Noble has 17,600 Twitter followers, a popular YouTube channel and is a sought-after guest analyst on crypto TV, with his Tony Soprano-esque, no-nonsense New Jersey accent.

He thrives on cryptos volatility, Its 10% up or 10% down each day, he says. I dont have to wait five years in between crises. As a matter of fact, I only have to wait about 45 minutes.

Noble stresses that you need to be very flexible in crypto technical analysis and not tied to one methodology. Surprisingly, he looks to the distant past for his basic systems, Gann works very well [William Gann, an influential early charting pioneer]. I find that the systems Wyckoff is another anything that worked in the early 20th century when stocks were the wild west, and there were 50 publicly traded car companies [work well]. I find Fibonacci is also helpful; Tom DeMarks work is excellent.

 

 

The current state of the market

Taking something of a contrarian position, he sees the current crypto winter as having a long-term benefit: clearing out the market and liquidating terrible projects.

The previous run-up was driven by a massive liquidity push by central banks. Then when central banks had to pull the liquidity, you had the 2008 crash of crypto. Speculative assets that never should have gone up, to begin with, went back to zero.

Noble forecasts that for the crypto economy, we can see the beginning of spring, a resumption of growth, after the crash, much like the many crises he weathered in the conventional financial markets, such as 2008 or 1987. He points out that various gurus like Warren Buffett wrote off the internet and Amazon after the 2002 crash. Buffett told CNBC in 2019 that hed been an idiot for not buying shares in Amazon in the past.

 

 

Bill Noble
Noble is attracted by cryptos volatility and ever-changing nature.

 

 

Bear markets are good times to do your homework because Mr. Market is now sorting out whos gonna win and whos gonna lose. He is bullish on Ethereum as a Web3 backbone. Web3 is the next internet, connected by Ethereum and Polkadot.

Noble is also bullish on privacy coins and approving quotes from United States National Security Agency whistleblower Edward Snowden: One day, your wealth could be held against you. The central banks push toward centralized digital currencies, which will mean that all transactions will be watched by Big Brother, will create momentum for privacy coins like Zcash. Privacy coins are going to go from being for pirates to being for regular people.

 

 

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Psychology of trading

Psychology plays a big part in trading. Noble explains that many of the best traders use physical exercise early in the morning to prepare themselves for the stresses of trading.

Its really about emotional management, he says. They also set up a research framework and stick to it. You have to have a method or a style, and you have to study to get there.

He explains that the legendary trader Bill Williams (who invented numerous indicators, including Awesome Oscillator, the Alligator Indicator and the Market Facilitation Index) made his students do three pages of stream of consciousness writing before he would let them trade, to empty their heads of emotional and intellectual blocks to trading. Noble encourages people to read Williams book, Trading Chaos.

 

 

Bill Noble and Julian Jackson
Bill Noble and Julian Jackson prove that not everyone in crypto is 23 years old.

 


Noble recommends that more emotional investors should adopt a long-term approach rather than the intense ups and downs of day trading. Hold a portfolio for a significant time and only make a few trades per month or year. With yield farming, you would still be getting a return on your investment.

And of course, if you can hold on, then Noble says that long term, the future is bright.

During a tightening cycle, crypto is going to get hurt, like anything else, but as the tightening cycle comes to a close, crypto is the future of money.

 

 

The ‘godfather of crypto’ risked lifetime in jail, laying foundation for Bitcoin

Widely credited as the inventor of digital cash, David Chaum is sometimes known as the father of online anonymity or the godfather of cryptocurrency, whose work inspired the near-mythical group called the Cypherpunks from which Bitcoin emerged.

Beginning his studies in computer science in the late 1970s, when encryption was classified at the same level as nuclear technology, Chaum quickly realized that the technology would be crucial to ensure the continuation of privacy and democracy in the digital age. More recently, he founded xx Network, a privacy-focused blockchain whose connected xx Messenger Chaum hopes will withstand attacks even by quantum computers of the future.

The National Security Agency was taking the position that cryptography was born classified, even if you created it yourself like nuclear weapons technology, Chaum recalls. He was told around 1980 that conferences on the subject would naturally not be allowed and that people who organize them would be prosecuted.

Cryptography, encryption, cypherpunks, xx Network, xx Messenger, xx Coin, privacy, quantum computing, Ecash, DigiCash, democracy, Hannu Nurmi I was risking spending the rest of my life in jail, he says.

 

 

David Chaum
David Chaum was 10 years ahead of the Cypherpunks in his understanding of cryptography and digital privacy.

 

 

Cyberwar

Encryption has long been of vital importance in warfare, and the Allies breaking the cipher of the Enigma machine and decoding the Nazis secret messages changed the course of World War II.

Afterward, the United States government regulated cryptography as a military munition alongside nuclear technology. The 1976 invention of public key encryption, which allowed information to be shared between two parties without a mutual encryption and decryption key, which could not be cracked or intercepted, took away governments monopoly on the technology. The cat was out of the bag, as they say.

As a computer science graduate student at the University of California, Berkeley in 1977, Chaum, now 67, recalls how he started thinking how important privacy would be for the upcoming digital world and, by extension, for democracy.

 

 

 

 

Privacy was the default state in those analog days, with surveillance such as listening to conversations, intercepting mail or searching for records requiring active and concentrated effort. With digitalization, surveillance no longer needed to be active, as data could be more easily searched, cross-referenced and stored for later use. Chaum came to the fundamental realization that cryptography was the only way to protect privacy in cyberspace, he recalls.

Thats when I realized it was important to organize a conference on cryptography, he says with a laugh, fully recognizing the absurdity. The result was the International Association for Cryptologic Research, which continues to organize conferences several times a year. I called it crypto the conference was called Crypto 81, he notes.

 

 

ecash
The first cryptocurrency team, Ecash, circa 1994. Source: chaum.com

 

 

He was the first person to describe cryptographic money in his 1983 paper, Blind signatures for untraceable payments, which led to the creation of short-lived Ecash by his company DigiCash from 1995 to 1998, as well as the invention of blind signatures, a type of digital signature used in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

It is notable that some cryptographers, such as Matthew D. Green, have aired grievances with the word crypto coming to stand for, and even being soiled by, cryptocurrency, thus disrespecting its original meaning of encryption.

Chaum takes the opposite view. Its so exciting to me because its bringing what was an archaic, esoteric, highly technical, mathematical, possibly classified technology area into widespread appreciation, so on contrary, Im happy to see the word crypto get new life.

 

 

 

 

Backed by privacy

Among the most remarkable aspects of Chaums work is that his 1985 paper Security without Identification: Transaction Systems to Make Big Brother Obsolete is credited as providing the spark from a privacy-focused group in 1992 that began calling themselves the Cypherpunks.

Princetons Arvind Narayanan wrote about the group:

[This movement], which originated in the late 80s, took Chaums ideas and ran quite far with them in terms of rhetoricin an explicitly subversive direction. For cypherpunks, crypto was at the core of a vision of how technology would cause sweeping social and political change, weakening the power of governments and established institutions Anonymous digital cash, one of the key parts of Chaums proposal, by itself has political significance in that it offers an alternative to government-backed currencies.

After several unsuccessful attempts at digital cash by various members of the Cypherpunks, the Bitcoin white paper by Satoshi Nakamoto emerged in 2008. He was soon contacted by fellow member Hal Finney, who went on to receive the first Bitcoin transaction on Jan. 9, 2009. As such, Chaum is appropriately labeled the godfather of cryptocurrency.

 

 

 

 

But Chaum wants to go further with private, uncrackable payments. In order to have real privacy in the modern age, Chaum explains that actions must be un-linkable both to the individual (vertical un-linkability) and to each other (horizontal un-linkability), meaning that individual actions must exist within a data vacuum of sorts. Unlike PayPal or credit cards, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ether are not directly linked to the real identities or IP addresses of users the transactions themselves are, however, linked to each other, and publicly so.

To have real privacy in payments, Chaum reasons, you need to use a different pseudonym with each entity you interact with, so as to ensure that nobody can keep a dossier on a particular anonymous identity. Taking the next step from privacy coins such as Monero and Zcash, Chaums xx Network is working on xx Coin to enable quantum-resistant private payments.

 

 

 

 

A vision for governance

Chaum is clear in his belief that the only effective way to maintain any level of privacy is to control the information with your own keys and goes on to explain that continuous government leaks suggest that any information entrusted with others can become public at any time.

All those leaks are forever, and they can be aggregated and amalgamated.

Unlike the criticism leveled at the Cypherpunks he inspired, Chaum denies being an ideologue, saying his views are based on practicality, as people need to have a credible assurance of privacy.

Chaum argues that privacy, over the long term, is critical for a functional democracy because you cannot be a citizen of a democracy without the ability to communicate freely, bringing up a story about how when coffee was introduced in Europe around the time of the enlightenment, it was hated by kings as it encouraged people to spend their evenings discussing politics.

 

 

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Having a private sphere of communication, he argues, is the pivotal distinction between China and the West and that payments are a fundamental form of communication. A stable democracy, therefore, requires the ability to pay anonymously according to Chaum something that has traditionally been the case with cash.

Did you know that every single banknote is traced from the teller desk to the ATM machine in China? he notes. The Chinese government has introduced the digital yuan to get a panopticon-style view of every last payment.

Despite all the attention on cryptocurrency, Chaum seems far more excited about blockchain as a mechanism of future governments. Armed with a confidently deep understanding of political history, he dives into a lecture.

Weve had civilizations we know of for 6,000 years, he begins, saying that they gained traction when they were able to exercise public policy but naturally became failed states and flipped to autocracy largely because of the difficulty of finding intelligent people to do the governments work while resisting the temptation of corruption. If democracy fails to govern effectively, it gets kicked out, he says, somberly opining that the west appears to be heading toward such a phase.

 

 

 

 

Citing University of Turku political scientist Hannu Nurmi, he reasons that direct democracy, a system in which voters vote on issues directly without the use of elected representatives and which was used in ancient Athens, is the only way to make democracy sustainable. Such a system became infeasible as societies grew beyond the city-state, but Chaum believes that the advent of smartphones and cryptography make the ancient system workable once again after 2,500 years.

In practice, Chaum envisions the reemergence of Athenian democracy using a randomly selected sample of the population to vote on specific issues using their private keys in a way that he believes would root out the potential for corruption. A natural problem, however, would center around the media, which is immensely powerful in shaping political opinions of the would-be voters.

That type of democracy can scale to the complexity of modern civilization no other system can, Chaum asserts.

Nation states are proving to be somewhat dysfunctional Id much rather see a sort of global democracy if there was a way to make it fair in a poly-cultural and more diverse environment, which I think Ive found.

It shows that blockchain outside of government is a very important step toward such a new order, he says. Such ideas admittedly come across as rather grandiose and utopian in bringing back memories of a curious experiment in blockchain governance on a Thai island, but the name behind the vision commands one to envision where it could lead in 50 years time.

 

 

 

 

Quantum threats

Chaum is taken aback by the success of cryptocurrencys proliferation since the publication of the Bitcoin white paper. The fact that these economic instruments succeeded to be outside the control of governments is a profound thing, he says. He is, however, no fanboy of the crypto order as it stands, seeing many shortcomings from privacy to vulnerability to quantum computing. Bitcoin is not a digital currency its something else right now, he says.

Part of the reason I decided to launch my own project was that I sat in on an early Ethereum 2.0 meeting, he recalls, coming to the view that it was not likely to happen in a good way any time soon.

Chaum founded xx Network in 2016, which he describes as a quantum-secure blockchain. The first phrase of Satoshis white paper is a digital currency thats me, right? he says referring to his invention of the concept itself. In his opinion, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are a little jammed up and fail to live up to the functional title of a digital currency. They also face an existential threat from quantum computing, which some believe could arrive by 2030.

Theres a bunch of ways you can use quantum computing to either steal money or damage the consensus unless both are hardened in this way, he asserts, referring to the quantum-hardened nature of his xx Network.

The kind of encryption used by Bitcoin and Ethereum can be easily broken by a reasonably large quantum computer in seconds.

Many cryptocurrency enthusiasts believe that no such computer exists or is likely to come around anytime soon, but Chaum points out that people who have machines that can break other peoples codes find a lot more advantage in keeping that a secret than in announcing it, again using history to demonstrate his point with the fact that the Allies allowed German U-boats to sink passenger ships in order to prevent giving away that they had broken the Enigma Code.

 

 

 

 

Be calm and dont panic just yet. According to The New Scientist, calculations show [quantum computers] would need to be a million times larger than those that exist today in order to crack Bitcoin. Cointelegraph recently reported on an MIT Tech Review report that asserts that such threats are many years away and a successful quantum attack is akin to trying to make todays best smartphones using vacuum tubes from the early 1900s, according to physicist Sankar Das Sarma.

If such a quantum capability did exist, it is difficult to imagine who could resist the temptation of declaring oneself Satoshi or his predecessor after effortlessly cracking the private keys to the estimated 1 million BTC mined by Nakamoto.


Read more: 6 Questions for David Chaum

 

6 Questions for David Chaum of XX Network

 

 

 

 

You can transform the world with blockchain: Dr. Jane Thomason

Jane Thomason is an Australian academic who spent 15 years running hospitals and doing development work abroad followed by a 20-year stint building a $250-million revenue company.

Thomason recently a blockchain adviser to the World Health Organization says she had an epiphany while thinking about the 2004 Tsunami in Indonesia, in which the lives of over 200,000 people were washed away.

No one knew the identities of the people coming to the hospitals all the identity documents were gone, all the bank records were gone, all the health records were gone. People wanted to send money to the people who were alive, but no one could send money directly.

 

Dr Jane Thomason
Dr Jane Thomason believes in the power of blockchain to help make the world a better place.

 

Thomason believes that if this data had been recorded on a blockchain, people would be able to reconnect with their data really quickly and access their identity, health and bank records. The realization convinced Thomason that she needed to play a role in helping the technology scale for humanitarian applications.

My blockchain story is quite cute, Thomason says, explaining that she completely ignored her sons advice when in 2010 he encouraged her to buy Bitcoin. He brought the subject up again in 2015, becoming really frustrated with Thomasons inaction.

He said, Listen Bitcoin is built on blockchain, and blockchain is going to change everything and you need to learn about it.

Thomason began reading and, after several months, began to feel a strong pull toward the industry. Shes since pivoted into the blockchain for social impact niche and is the author of several books including Blockchain Technology for Global Social Change and Blockchainging the World, and acts as a blockchain adviser to various international organizations, such as the World Health Organization and the Commonwealth Secretariat.

 

 

Dr Jane Thomason
Dr. Jane Thomason is a regular at crypto conferences around the world. Source: drjanethomason.net

 

 

Thomason believes that beyond all the talk of cryptocurrency, blockchain is a technology that can solve practical problems for some of the most disadvantaged groups in the world by facilitating and securing identity, health records, banking, supply chains and supporting climate action. Despite the rosy picture, she remains worried about the current state of the industry and questions whether the industry understands its own climate footprint.

Social benefits of blockchains

When it comes to blockchain and identity, Thomason believes that recognition by governments is the biggest hurdle because many people around the world do not have any type of ID, to begin with. Identity is a persons window to the world, making it perhaps the most important problem to solve.

Financial inclusion can be tackled with stablecoins, which people can easily send and receive. Despite being much lauded by the Bitcoin community, Thomason remains skeptical of El Salvadors decision to make Bitcoin legal tender due to the inherent volatility.

 

 

 

 

While running the London Blockchain Week Hackathon in 2017, conveniently sponsored by the Abt Associates, Thomason invited a group of central bankers from the Bank of Papua New Guinea to witness 200 of the smartest people in the world sitting there trying to figure out how to solve this problem of financial inclusion. The winners then accompanied them to Papua New Guinea to create a proof-of-concept for a new payment system.

They went to a super isolated village, and without electricity and only 2G mobile phones, and were able to make transfers to that village and convert it into fiat in the local store.

As for supply chains, Thomason is quick to point to problems even in the medical sector regarding fake personal protection equipment devices, which began to circulate during the pandemic. If supply chains can be clearly recorded onto blockchains, both manufacturers and buyers can see transparently right through the entire supply chain and know whats going on. The same goes for food and can help farmers avoid exploitation via transparency.

 

 

Jane Thomason
Dr. Jane Thomason sees opportunities for blockchain to aid climate change efforts. Source:drjanethomason.net

 

 

Thomason also sees a bright future for blockchain as a tool for climate action. One opportunity, she says, is the tokenization of green bonds and carbon offsets, as well as NFTs, which can represent carbon offsets. She cites the example of the Brooklyn Microgrid, which is a marketplace for locally generated solar power.

In developing countries, she explains, someone with a solar panel could sell generated power to others for micropayments, making electricity available in places where people might otherwise not be able to keep a mobile phone charged. Developing countries often serve as great proving grounds for new technologies, which could also be implemented on much larger scales in developed economies.

 

 

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Building blocks

In the aftermath of her epiphany, she left her position at Abt Associates, the parent company that had bought her company JTA International in 2014. She had been building JTA for 20 years, and it had over $250 million in revenue and 600 employees.

MAFs star Georgina Fairweather does NFTs
Her daughter is Married At First Sight star Georgia Fairweather, who is passionate about NFTs.

She needed to regroup. I started traveling around the world, going to blockchain conferences and meetups, looking for ways she could contribute to the nascent sector. One of the first things she did was begin advising various projects, including the Kerala Blockchain Academy and Shyft Network.

Thomason found that affiliating herself with blockchain projects was important because if you dont belong to an organization, people think youre a bit weird. When unassociated, she found it difficult to be taken seriously as an advocate for blockchain as a tool for social impact at a time when everyone was simply trying to raise millions of dollars with ICOs.

Coming from a work culture where business cards were the norm, she noticed that the attendees of blockchain conferences preferred instead to connect digitally. Thomason found herself setting up a LinkedIn profile where she began writing about blockchain and social impact. Unintentionally and totally organically, I got this following, she says, referring to her 26,000 followers.

If you believe in something and have something important to say, you can build a following without maintaining it.

With all her explorations of the industry, Thomason came to the view that there was a need for deeper education relating to ways in which blockchain could be used to create impact.

In 2019, she launched Digital Impact Week in London, and in 2020, we had our last blockchain week just before the borders closed due to the pandemic, after which Thomason was effectively stuck in Australia for two years.

I spent my time during the lockdown learning about DeFi, she says, explaining that in 2020, she came across Novum Insights, a Decentralized Finance (DeFi) analytic company that she invested in on the condition that she be allowed to work directly with the team in order to learn about DeFi. The experience, Thomason says, inspired her to write her fifth book Applied Ethics in a Digital Age. She was able to move to Dubai in 2022.

Healthcare development

Thomason was born in Scotland before moving to Australia, where her father worked as a rural doctor in North Queensland. When she was 16, her mother took her on an Oxfam study tour to Indonesia, which was sort of like a combination of a holiday, but you go and see all their development projects, and you see the good work that theyre doing, Thomason recalls.

 

 

 

 

She began her career after graduating with a Bachelor of Arts in Social Work from the University of Queensland in 1979, after which she volunteered on an Asia Development Bank Project in Indonesia before completing her Masters in Public Health at the University of Sydney in 1981.

Thomason's book
Thomasons books are available on Amazon.

Thomasons research involved fieldwork in Papua New Guinea, where she learned about the challenges faced by economically and geographically isolated people. Upon completing her Ph.D. in 1994, Thomason returned to Queensland to work as the CEO of a hospital, among other positions.

In 1999, Thomason founded JTA International to develop public health in developing countries. Over time, it expanded to various other industries, including mining, and was sold to Abt Associates in 2014, with Thomason agreeing to stay on board for four years to grow the company in Asia and the Pacific into other sectors outside of healthcare. The years following saw the company triple its revenues from $50 million to $250 million. Seeing a dire need for digital transformation, Thomason, however, stepped out of the CEO role in 2017 to become the parent companys global ambassador for its Center for Digital Transformation in the United Kingdom.

 

 

 

 

Though Thomason sees NFTs as a valuable canvas for digital art in support of climate initiatives, she is quick to bring up what she considers their dark side: the current power consumption of Ethereum. Im a little bit cautious about that because most NFTs build on Ethereum, and Ethereum is one of the power-hungry blockchains, she notes. Such art would by no means solve climate change, but she sees them as a way to galvanize climate action and reward artists.

I feel that we need to find ways to move the NFT community off Ethereum and onto Algorand, Solana, Cardano and those blockchains that arent that energy hungry.

Ethereums creator Vitalik Buterin argues that the chains upcoming transition to proof-of-stake will provide a fitting solution to climate concerns.

With time, Thomason notes that many others have begun to advocate for the climate and social benefits side of blockchain. One of these is Miroslav Polzer, European Climate Pact Ambassador in Austria, who is trying to build a DAO for climate action.

As new technologies are integrated with blockchain, perhaps like the biometric suit worn by Cage The Elephants lead singer, Thomason imagines a setting in which Internet-of-Things devices could measure positive actions taken by people and a smart contract can trigger a payment to people for having taken that climate action.

I think that the job that weve got ahead of us is really an education job because were so consumed with whats going on in currencies that most people have no idea of the social utility of blockchain, Thomason concludes.

 

 

Read More: Six questions for Jane Thomason

6 Questions for Jane Thomason of Kasei Holdings

 

 

Better than Axie Infinity: Kieran Warwick’s 2032 plan for Illuvium

Kieran Warwick created the play-to-earn game Illuvium with his brothers Aaron and Grant all siblings of DeFi maverick Kain, the founder of Synthetix. He shares his alpha on how NFT game mechanics can be designed in such a way that playing them can be fun and profitable in the long term.

Warwick entered the retail world right out of high school, eventually becoming an online shopping entrepreneur. He got his start in the crypto world at brother Kains company BlueShyft, which first made Bitcoin and crypto exchange payments available over-the-counter at more than one thousand physical retailers around Australia in 2015.

 

 

Kieran Warwick
Kieran Warwick is riding Illuvium until 2032.

 

 

Years later, with a number of business projects under his belt, Kain encouraged him to reenter the space, which led to the creation of Illuvium, a Pokemon-like play-to-earn NFT game. Unlike contemporaries such as Axie Infinity, which experienced dramatic in-game inflation, Warwick believes Illuvium will have a decade of staying power. In June 2022, the game brought in $72 million through the sale of 20,000 plots of NFT land, laying the literal groundwork for what Warwick envisions as a longstanding playing field.

Designing deflation

He explains the setup of Illuvium. When players first arrive or crash onto the planet, they find out that theres this society thats been built, and its your job to be a hunter and to go out and catch creatures known as Illuvials.

Like Pokemon cards, these Illuvials, which live in certain regions of the map, are limited edition. And much like the original 1999 Charizard or Pikachu cards, Genesis Illuvials are no longer available. Whenever a new set of Illuvials becomes available, they get progressively more difficult to find and capture based on a bonding curve comparable to the one that governs Bitcoins halvings and makes Bitcoins progressively rarer and more difficult to capture by way of mining. Thats what makes them valuable, Warwick notes.

 

 

Illuvium
Artwork from Illuvium. Source: Twitter

 

 

In addition to being limited in mintage and increasingly difficult to mine, Illuvials are deflationary due to a game mechanic termed Fusing, which consists of destroying lower-level characters to create higher levels.

Three level-one Illuvials can fuse into a single level-two version, whereas summoning a level-three Illuvial requires a sacrifice of three level-twos, equivalent to nine basic creatures that are forever removed from circulation.

Warwick is quick to note that the capped and deflationary nature of his Illuvial game pieces makes Illuvium the polar opposite of Axie Infinity, whose native Axie characters are created through a mechanism called breeding that produces an ever-inflating pool of characters within the game universe.

 

 

 

 

A single Axie cost hundreds of dollars in mid-2021 to the extent that individual gamers often rented them from owners and split their earnings but have now crashed in value to almost nothing. This price plunge can be explained by the runaway breeding of more Axies, which also caused possible earnings per Axie to fall.

Warwick is not surprised by the downfall of Axie Infinitys game economy. Ive been calling this for 18 months now, he says, explaining that he believes the game was doomed from the beginning, as its economics were unsustainable. The model attracted many players who worked full-time to extract value from the game, while few added any, he asserts.

Many people are finding that these games are smoke and mirrors. We are not that we are here for 10 years at the least.

Retail

Having held an interest in business from a young age, Warwick, now 32, reasoned that he wanted to start earning money right out of high school in 2007 and decided to skip college in favor of Australian retailer Harvey Norman, where he eventually became a franchisee responsible for running a store.

After leaving in 2012, he founded Audio Invasion, a competing online retailer for music and computing goods with his brother Kain and a mutual friend whod recently begun mining Bitcoin as a hobby. Around this same time, he dabbled in a business selling online tutorials.

That was the first I heard of Bitcoins he had hundreds of BTC, Warwick recalls, adding that the friend who introduced him to Bitcoin had tragically passed away in a biking accident, taking his private keys to the grave with him, like so many other early adopters who met untimely deaths.

 

 

 

 

When Audio Invasion ran out of money in 2014, Warwick worked as head of marketing for BlueShyft, a financial payments and retail network he founded with his brother Kain and billed as the first in the world over-the-counter exchange, which saw over 1,000 retail locations around Australia becoming outfitted with an iPad, with which customers could directly purchase BTC in-store. In short, anyone could walk in with cash and have BTC deposited to the address of their choice. In addition to the retail business, the company today operates bitcoin.com.au, billing itself as the fastest way to buy Bitcoin in Australia.

In 2017, Kierans brother Kain, who is nine years older than him, founded Synthetix (originally Havven) an Ethereum-based DeFi platform. Kieran helped his brother raise money for the project. Around this time, Warwick started investing in Ether and other cryptocurrencies back when the price of ETH was in the single digits.

I was a little skeptical of crypto I had lost $30,000 margin trading ETH, which left a bad taste.

Instead of flipping crypto, the younger Warwick tapped into his taste for burgers in 2016 to create the Burger Collective, described as an app made for burger lovers that hosted reviews and discounts to nearby restaurants. With 200,000 users, the app experienced initial success and an imminent integration with DoorDash, before the COVID-19 pandemic caused restaurants to close for in-person dining. Our product was all about going to the store, Warwick explains regarding why the company had to wind down in May 2021 after running out of money.

It was while his burger app was beginning to fail that Kain peer-pressured him to get back into crypto, even loaning him $100,000 to do so. I ended up making a whole bunch of money 10x in six months, Warwick recalls. In June 2020, he had the fortune of learning about the play-to-earn game Axie Infinity, which fascinated him.

 

 

 

 

They branded it as a Pokmon-like game, and I am an avid Pokmon fan, he notes regarding the initial appeal, which led him down a rabbit hole of learning about NFTs, upon which the game was based. Describing himself as a gamer, Warwick came to the view that this is exactly what the mainstream gaming world has been asking for decades.

What if we made a AAA Fortnite-like title? Thats exactly what gamers have been wanting! Warwick opined, a realization followed by what he describes as a couple of weeks of deeper research into the technology and possible game functions.

 

 

Art from Illuvium. Source: Twitter

 

 

What goes into designing a game? Designing game characters seems like a natural place to begin, so Warwick went to work to convince his more artistically inclined brother Grant to help out with design. Getting Grant on board was no easy task, however.

Nah man, I wont go into crypto its all scams, so I cant put reputation on the line, Kieran recalls of his brothers protests. He eventually relented and agreed to design five characters.

Five designed characters do not a game make. Though Warwick imagined himself capable of raising money and running the business side of things, he knew little about how to build a game a task that involves much more than mere artistic design.

The answer came in the form of yet another member of the Warwick clan, Aaron. Hes an accomplished game designer and was next in line to join the team. Aaron brought new ideas to the table, preferring more team fight tactics, League of Legends-style.

Being brothers, we just couldnt agree on game mechanics we were arguing for 23 days until Aaron designed a beta version. Thats how Illuvium came about.

“Were a game with Crypto elements rather than gamified crypto. The result of that gaming DNA is high quality gameplay that feels no different to the best of traditional gaming,” Warwick explains regarding the resulting first-hand gaming experience.

How to earn

There are a number of ways by which players can earn while playing Illuvium. The first of these is through capturing Illuvials in the wilderness, which can later be sold for a profit. This process is not without expenses, however, as players must expend in-game Fuel to travel into a specific region where Illuvials might be present and, upon encountering one, expend a shard in order to facilitate the capture. There are several tiers of shards, which cost progressively more, and the capture of a highly ranked Illuvial with a low-level shard is statistically unlikely. Fuel is what powers the entire economy in Illuvium, he says.

 

 

The tradeable Illuvials are very Pokmon-like. Source: Illuvium

 

 

There is also Illuvium Zero, a mobile companion game, which Warwick describes as a city builder with NFT land. Owners of the land can earn Fuel, which is linked to the Illuvium economy as an integral resource needed to effectively play the game. According to Warwick, land owners make 5% of in-game revenue in this manner. As of writing, the cheapest individual land plots trade for close to 1,000 USDT on the in-game marketplace.

Ranked battles are a driver of the demand of captured Illuvials, where they can be battled in order to climb the leaderboards and earn ILV governance tokens, of which 1 million are set aside as rewards for achievements such as tournaments. In these cases, the DAO that governs the game takes a small percentage. With a market capitalization north of $100 million, ILV sits in the top 200 cryptocurrencies. In addition to the governance-focused ILV token, which is in some ways comparable to Axie Infinitys AXS token in terms of function, there is sILV2.

 

 

Illuvials fight on a virtual battlefield.

 

 

SILV2 is our in-game currency, but its finite as well, Warwick says, explaining these tokens are commonly used to buy the all-important Fuel. The 2 in the name is the result of a January 2022 incident, in which the currency was exploited by a hacker just prior to launch.

Their plan was to wait until the game started and have an unlimited amount of SLV, Warwick explains, saying that the brothers decided to relaunch the token and make victims whole by personally putting up about $450,000. It was really Warwicks money, however, as the other guys arent liquid yet, but they said theyll pay me back, he says.

 

 

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Warwick has a wider vision for the future of blockchain gaming.

I think most games will migrate to Web3, he says with confidence, explaining that the advantages of the new paradigm that is giving power back to the players are so numerous as to make it a necessary upgrade due to consumer demand. Unlike in most mainstream games where players cannot generally sell their in-game items or monetize their achievements, Web3 gaming means that consumers have a choice.

Its the beginning of a new cycle, and consumers will have the power in this 1020-year period.

 

 

 

 

Fail better: Scott Melker on defying the odds with crypto trading

Scott Melker, better known as The Wolf of All Streets, is a trader and crypto advocate who is far more approachable than his online handle might suggest. A former DJ, Melker operates a small crypto advocacy empire spanning YouTube videos, podcasts and a popular newsletter.

Scott Melker is open about his initial intentions in the crypto industry. I simply came to trade and make money, he admits, getting involved after hearing friends go on about the gold-paved streets of the blockchain world where 100x weekly returns were common. Being familiar with the more conservative movements of the stock markets since childhood, Melker was lucky to learn proper trading before entering the unregulated crypto casino.

XRP was like a penny or something then, he recalls. Crypto was also popular in the DJ community, something Melker attributes to the communitys risk-taking nature. He attributes his success to lucky timing in early 2016, soon cashing out his initial investment to play with his winnings.

There was this sort of groundswell in the DJ community. They understand technology, and they’re kind of wild and speculative. That’s how I first discovered it.

The crypto beats stopped soon enough. The 2018 bear market meant that If you wanted to stick around, you really had to justify it to yourself, and you probably went way further down the rabbit hole to understand the importance of the movement, Melker explains. He began to truly appreciate Bitcoins fundamentals and understand the purpose of individual altcoins.

 

 

Scott Melker
Melker has long been a favored commentator with Cointelegraph.

 

Trading

Though Melker has invested in hundreds of tokens over the years, he believes that Bitcoin is the most important asset ever created and that everyone should strive to have some exposure to it. Ether rises nearly to Bitcoins level of importance and may well have more upside, he says, while altcoins are akin to individual speculative technology investments.

Soon after changing his Twitter tune from music to crypto in 2017, Melker connected with Christopher Inks of TexasWest Capital, who became a mentor to him. Melker became something of an analyst for Inks fund, sharing charts and trading ideas. He clarifies that he did not trade anyone elses money, and lacks licenses to do so.

 

 

 

 

The Wolf emphasizes that trading is not easy, whether in stocks or crypto. To trade full time for decades, you are like a unicorn, he explains, adding that the crypto markets are especially brutal because they operate 24/7, without pause, meaning that traders dont have an opportunity to recharge while markets are closed. Of course, you dont need to trade all the time Melker himself uses leverage to trade Bitcoin only two or three times per year.

A curious aspect of trading is that as ones portfolio grows, so do the sizes of bets one should make to remain profitable doing otherwise would be akin to taking out $10,000 in casino chips only to spend all evening making $1 bets.

When your portfolio reaches a certain size, you have to be willing to ratchet up the size of your trades as a percentage and those numbers can start to become uncomfortably big.

 

 

Scott Melker
Melker as a DJ in 1998.

 

 

Learning to fail

Melker is quick to point out that the odds are stacked against day traders. 95% of traders fail they go bust quickly, Melker states, explaining that those aspiring to be serious traders need to be prepared to lose their invested assets several times over. Most dont have the time or capital for that, he says. In 2012, Melker invested his entire portfolio into ARYx Therapeutics, which went to zero. Despite such setbacks, Melker counts himself lucky for learning the hard lessons before crypto. He finds that most who first discover trading via cryptocurrency tend to lose everything to leverage.

You have to be able to learn on the job and go broke multiple times and still stick with it.

Though Investors almost always do better than traders, Melker strongly recommends those determined to trade study up on risk management. Long-term profitability, he explains, is not about selling tops and buying bottoms but rather the way that you protect your capital and allow yourself to hit home runs. He uses the example that a trader can be right less than half the time and remain wildly profitable if they know when to cut their losses. Even one win out of 10 can be a recipe for success.

It’s a math game of taking small losses and big wins.

Another piece of advice is to never risk more than 1% of ones portfolio on a single trade. However, this is far from foolproof. For example, 30% of a portfolio could be spread over 30 altcoin positions, all of which suffer when Bitcoin takes an unexpected dive. Ego is the enemy, and emotional attachment to positions is to be avoided something that may be even harder when it comes to NFTs.

To stay profitable long term is largely a result of your risk management strategy, Melker claims.

 

 

End of the bull run part 2
Melker was featured in Magazines extremely popular and prophetic How to prepare for the end of the bull runseries.

DJ Bitcoin

Melker, 45, grew up in Gainesville, Florida, where his parents hammered home the importance of financial literacy and investing and saving. He began to experiment with the stock market at 13 when he bought stocks in Disney with his fathers help. He headed for the University of Pennsylvania in 1995, where he majored in anthropology. The school was very business-focused, Melker explains, with consulting and investment banking firms recruiting a large number of graduating students. The late 90s, of course, coincided with the dot-com boom, and It was impossible to avoid excitement around financial markets at school like that, Melker recounts. He adds that there was an up only sentiment that is familiar in crypto circles.

 

 

 

 

Having taken piano lessons from a young age, Melker was consumed by music and began working as a DJ alongside completing his studies. This began with house parties, which soon led to him playing gigs at downtown nightclubs. In those days, DJing involved far more skill and investment than today, when someone can simply hook up a laptop to a sound system. This was the full vinyl era. I had to have four friends travel with me anywhere I went to carry all the equipment, he recounts. Hot girls thought it was cooler than the piano, he says with a laugh.

 

 

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Despite having the option to follow his peers into investment banking after graduation, Melker decided on the entrepreneurial route, founding nightlife startup Philly2Nite in 1999, which marketed events happening in the Philadelphia area. In 2001, he founded 101 Magazine, which he describes as a lifestyle rag a magazine for everything that was happening in Philadelphia, along with the sort of snarky content the likes of which I now post about crypto. The magazine was a success and eventually merged into the larger Frank Magazine, which saw Melker move to New York as the firms global brand ambassador in 2003.

He worked for various other companies, including as a music director and business developer and a short stint in marketing at Vice Magazine. Melker moved to Miami in 2012, where he worked as a realtor, only to return to Gainesville in 2017 to be closer to his parents after having children of his own.

 

 

 

 

Throughout his career, Melker continued to perform and produce music under names such as The Melker Project, Funkontrol and MBS. Over the years, this resulted in him gaining a significant 40,000 followers on Twitter.

One day, I stopped talking about music and began posting charts and talking about magic internet money.

As he continued endlessly posting about crypto, he saw his Twitter following drop by half. But soon, new engagement began to appear. When you want to go from one thing to another, people tend to dismiss it, Melker states. He explains that in his early days of crypto, he faced mean-spirited comments like Shut up, DJ when he brought up crypto.

Thats when Melker came up with his Wolf of All Streets moniker as a message to people that you can be more than one thing. The name stuck, and he takes care to point out that it was merely a play on words, that the real Wolf of Wall Street was a criminal and not someone he wants to emulate.

 

 

 

 

I become hyper-focused on that thing, and everything else disappears, Melker explains regarding his sudden turn from music to crypto. Like previous Journeys interviewee Carl The Moon Runefelt, Melker has attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, commonly known as ADHD. Theres a lot of ADHD in crypto, he says, explaining that he considers it a superpower because it allows him to place total focus on his passion.

I followed all the big accounts. I was trying to learn, I was commenting under their tweets, trying to engage with them. This engagement could soon be seen in his follower count, and Melker grew more confident in sharing his ideas. Considering Twitter very shorthand, he started writing a newsletter, which soon came to resemble a full-time job. He was charging $15 per month and offering a limited free version, but he later made everything free because I dont want to monetize my audience in any way, shape or form.

By all appearances, Melker is driven more by passion than money. This did not, however, prevent controversy from blowing up last year amid a market downturn when he was criticized for deleting so-called shill tweets relating to low-market-cap coins whose price could theoretically have been influenced by a highly visible account like his. My account has grown to a size where I cannot tweet about certain things, he commented following the controversy. He says the blow-up resulted in threats against his family.

 

 

 

 

The newsletters success prompted Jason Yanowitz, co-founder of Blockworks, to approach Melker and suggest he start a podcast. I literally asked, Whats a podcast? as I had never listened to one, Melker recalls with a laugh. Today, he considers podcasting the best job in the world, partly because he feels he can get almost anyone onto The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast.

With multiple sponsors, the show has become a business but not one devoid of purpose. The overarching goal, Melker says, is to create content for the next wave of crypto investors, like grandma or the average person on the street. He sees himself as a crypto advocate, easily able to list the ways Bitcoin and crypto proliferation will benefit society. Considering the breadth of his YouTube channel, Twitter account, newsletter, website and podcast which are full of thoughtful, measured commentary its clear that new followers will have no shortage of support.

I wake up every morning at 4:30, excited to write the newsletter. I can’t sleep because of the thoughts that I want to get down on paper.