Jackson Hole

Bitcoin price taps $21.3K ahead of Fed Chair Powell Jackson Hole speech

Daily lows greet Bitcoin traders as markets await fresh macro cues from the Fed.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to daily lows on Aug. 26 as market nerves heightened into new macro triggers.

*BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView*

Pre-Fed blues hit BTC markets

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD dipping to $21,332 on Bitstamp ahead of fresh commentary from Jerome Powell, Chair of the United States Federal Reserve.

Part of the Fed’s Jackson Hole annual symposium, Powell was set to deliver a speech on the day that spectators hoped would provide new cues on economic policy going forward.

With U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowing since June, interest remained high over the extent of key interest rate hikes in September.

Summarizing the current economic situation in the U.S., macro analyst David Hunter argued that the Fed would have no choice but to change course before the end of the year.

“Many signs we’re in recession w/economy continuing to decelerate,” he told Twitter followers this week:

“Composite PMIs at 45,housing rolling over fast,retail is weak,labor conditions are deteriorating.Overseas is even worse.And inflation is rolling over & likely will surprise on the downside.Fed will pause this fall.”

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, however, a majority still favored a repeat of July’s 75-basis-point rise.

*Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group*

Trading range endures

Bitcoin circles meanwhile kept an eye on potential volatility going into this year’s Jackson Hole.

“We often see an increase in volatility just before FED announcements, but that may be limited if some of the near range liquidity doesn’t get cleared out,” on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators wrote in part of comments on the day.

An accompanying chart showed buy and sell levels on the Binance order book, these strengthening closer to spot at the time of writing, reducing the potential for a breakout.

*BTC/USD buy and sell levels chart (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/ Twitter*

Continuing, Keith Alan nonetheless predicted that an end to the sideways price action (PA) of recent days would have to enter.

“PA will be forced to make a directional move out of the micro-structure very soon,” he explained:

“Normally I would be eager to scalp the volatility that usually front runs a JPow conference, but the R:R ratio in the active range sucks. Might consider scalping a breakout above the 50 MA.”

On the topic of price targets, Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe flagged $21,000 as a key level to hold in the event of additional downside.

Retesting $21,800, on the other hand, could result in a breakout above $23,000.

#Bitcoin is boring, as we anticipate reactions based on tomorrow’s news (PCE numbers and Powell’s speech).

Overall, on a support block now and;
– Tomorrow can result in fake-outs.

– Testing $21.8K will likely result in acceleration to $23.2K.
– Crucial to stay above $21K. pic.twitter.com/LYNRnHpnkh

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) August 25, 2022

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin sits at range high as realized price sparks BTC ‘macro signal’

Interesting signals are being printed by several more chart indicators this week, all of which have proven to be bear market bottom markers.

Bitcoin (BTC) inched closer to $22,000 on Aug. 25 as realized price provided the next major hurdle for bulls.

Realized price inspires confidence

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD grinding higher overnight to come face to face with $21,700.

That level, coinciding with realized price, had marked the key flip zone to target for bullish continuation the day prior, but at the time of writing, Bitcoin had yet to push beyond it or convincingly turn it to support.

“At realized price again,” analyst Root summarized alongside a chart showing the interaction between realized price and spot price during prior bear markets.

2022 had so far seen notably less time below realized price than either 2018 or 2014, Root noted.

A subsequent post contained a more hopeful forecast, with the 90-day change in realized price now hitting levels historically preceding extended price upside.

This, Root added, now constituted a “macro signal.”

*BTC/USD realized price chart. Source: Glassnode*

As Cointelegraph reported, several long-term trendlines involving the daily BTC/USD had already flashed bullish, leading some to believe that significant further losses may not materialize.

Aurelien Ohayon, CEO of software firm XOR Strategy, additionally cited the relationship between spot and its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) on the day as a firm bull signal.

As with Root’s realized price findings, the depth between the 200 SMA and spot was now echoing behavior at the 2018 and 2014 macro bottoms, he explained alongside a comparative chart from XOR Strategy.

Ohayon had long called for a major bull run to begin for Bitcoin, a perspective that garnered him significant criticism on social media in recent months.

*BTC/USD annotated chart with 200 SMA. Source: Aurelien Ohayon/ Twitter*

Markets gear up for Fed Jackson Holecomments

Returning to spot price in the short term, meanwhile, trader and analyst Il Capo of Crypto stuck by a prediction of $22,000 being regained before a significant downturn entered.

$BTC pic.twitter.com/1sgiI3DIy0

— il Capo Of Crypto (@CryptoCapo_) August 24, 2022

Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, who previously had hoped that $21,500 would hold as support, now cautioned that upcoming macro events would be “crucial” for BTC.

These came in the form of the United States Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole annual symposium and associated comments from hair Jerome Powell due Aug. 26.

In addition, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data and flip-flopping around parity between the U.S. dollar and the euro were items to watch, he told Twitter followers on the day.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY), enjoying a rebound the day prior, reversed its gains to put in a new local low.