FED

Will Ethereum Merge hopium continue, or is it a bull trap?

ETH has gained 48% over the past week, leaving most of its crypto brethren behind — though it’s still risky days ahead given the macroeconomic factors at play.

Ethereum is outperforming the broader cryptocurrency market as the highly anticipated Merge approaches, but the bigger picture is still largely bearish.

Ether (ETH) has gained a whopping 48% over the past seven days, outperforming its big brother Bitcoin (BTC), which has only managed to achieve 19% in the same period. It’s also up 66% from its market cycle bottom of $918 on June 19, reaching its current price of $1549.

However, the current ETH rally could be a bull trap with the macroeconomic clouds darkening. A bull trap is a signal indicating that a declining trend in a crypto asset has reversed and is heading upward when it will actually continue downward.

The primary driver of recent momentum for the asset has been linked to announcements regarding its final switch to proof-of-stake (PoS), which has been slated for Sept. 19.

The Merge will reduce the network’s energy consumption by more than 99%. However, it will not necessarily reduce transaction fees significantly, as this will occur when scaling takes place via sharding, which is expected sometime next year.

On Tuesday, a Coinbase report on the Merge explained that the next major step and last dress rehearsal is the Goerli testnet Merge, which has been planned for August 11.

Goerli is the most battle-tested Ethereum environment with the most user activity and the closest simulation of the real thing.

While the major upgrade is the fundamental driver of current ETH market sentiment, the asset is still trading down 68% from its November 2021 all-time high.

There have also been concerns that a significant amount of ETH may flood the market after the Merge and its release from its staking smart contracts.

However, director of research at 21Shares, Eliézer Ndinga, told Cointelegraph that this is unlikely to happen:

“The withdrawals of Ether won’t occur until 6-12 months post Merge after the Shanghai upgrade. The withdrawals will be limited to six validators every epoch or ~ 6 minutes to avoid bank runs and keep the network secure.”

Related: Ethereum devs confirm the perpetual date for The Merge

According to a recent survey by Finder, conducted before the most recent rally, said there is still a lot of negative sentiment regarding short-term Ether prices. 

The panel of 54 industry experts polled thought ETH would be worth $1,711 by the end of 2022, climbing to $5,739 by 2025, before hitting $14,412 by 2030. However, they also thought it would dump to $675 before the year was out.

Finder said there are a couple of macroeconomic factors that could cause this retreat. The United States Federal Reserve is expected to hike rates again by 75 basis points during their July 26-27 meeting, which is generally bearish for crypto markets. If Bitcoin (BTC) takes a dive, Ether is sure to follow.

Additionally, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its advance estimate of second-quarter GDP growth on July 28. Another negative quarter, which is expected, will mean that the country is in a technical recession, which is also very bad for risk-on assets such as Ether.

Crypto bank Custodia sues the Fed over 19 month delay on account approval

Custodia wants to compel the Federal Reserve Board and its Kansas City branch to approve its application for a Fed master account within 30 days.

Wyoming based digital asset bank Custodia is suing the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, claiming an “unlawful delay” in processing an application for its master account.

Custodia, formerly known as Avanti, was one of the first Special Purpose Depository Institutions (SPDIs), also known as “blockchain banks,” made under a Wyoming regulatory framework.

The bank was founded by Caitlin Long, an early advocate of Bitcoin (BTC) who established the institution in 2020 to provide accounts for crypto companies and serve as a bridge for them to the U.S. dollar payment system.

Custodia submitted an application for a Federal Reserve master account 19 months ago in October 2020. The account would allow Custodia to access the Federal Reserve payment systems without using a third-party bank.

Nathan Miller, a spokesperson for Custodia Bank, told Cointelegraph:

“Through this lawsuit, Custodia seeks to ensure that its Federal Reserve master account application receives the fair dealing and due process guaranteed to it by both federal statute and the U.S. Constitution. Custodia has satisfied every rule applicable to it, and has gone beyond by applying to become a Fed member bank.”

The suit claims the Federal Reserve violated a United Stated Code, which outlines a one-year deadline for processing the application, and says that it even states on the master account application that a decision takes five to seven business days.

The Fed’s Kansas City bank was ready to approve the account before the Federal Reserve Board asserted control over the process in spring 2021, thereby “derailing” the application, Custodia says.

Custodia states that the “black-box bureaucratic process” meant it had exhausted “all options short of litigation” and sought to compel the Federal Reserve and its Kansas City bank to approve its master account within 30 days.

Custodia plans to provide final settlement for U.S. dollar payments in digital asset transactions, along with providing digital asset custodial services. A key part of its service is to clear payments for its customers directly with the Fed, which it says will reduce costs, counterparty credit risk and delays in settlement.

The delay has postponed Custodia’s full entry to the market and forced the bank to partner with another bank that already has a master account. It says this is a “makeshift solution” that is “second best and far more expensive”.

Related: Fed governor explains who needs crypto regulation and why demand for it is growing

If Custodia wins the suit or is granted a Fed master account, it will be the first digital asset bank in the country to secure one.

In December 2021, the Republican senator for Wyoming Cynthia Lummis claimed the Fed was “violating the law” with its unfair treatment of SPDIs like Custodia through delaying applications to receive master accounts.

SPDIs were created from a Wyoming regulatory framework for cryptocurrency custody introduced in late 2019 to serve businesses unable to secure Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) banking services due to their dealings with cryptocurrency.