eth

Bitcoin wobbles on Wall Street open as Ethereum hits $1.6K in 6-week high

Bitcoin and Ethereum both gain but ETH price action takes the prize as Bitcoin cools momentum.

Bitcoin (BTC) took a step back as Wall Street trading began on July 22 after recovering most of its previous losses.

*BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView*

BTC bulls fail to sustain assault on multi-week high

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed BTC/USD encountering fresh resistance near $24,000.

The pair had spent the past 24 hours slowly clawing back lost ground after news that Tesla had sold most of its BTC holdings.

With the pre-announcement high of $24,280 still in force, bulls saw something of a setback as Wall Street opened on the day, with BTC/USD losing around $400.

Analyzing the current order book structure on major exchange Binance, on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators warned that the overall bear market structure remained in control.

As you can see a good portion of the bid liquidity we saw yesterday has moved up to get filled. and that helped push #BTC back above $23.5k (for now).
That’s short term bullish in a bear market rally. pic.twitter.com/S4oiyj5Rlt

— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) July 22, 2022

“Extreme lows and drops usually results in a revert to the mean move, or relief rally. Basically sellers are exhausted and buyers step trying to buy the bottom, causing a relief rally,” popular trader Crypto Tony added, reiterating that “the main trend remains bearish currently.”

United States equities were similarly muted on the day, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index seeing modest declines on the open.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY), in consolidation during the week, continued its downturn, targeting 106 for the first time since July 5.

*U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView*

Ethereum runs the show among altcoins

While also coming off its local highs, Ether (ETH) still gave analysts plenty to be excited about.

ETH/USD hit $1,640 on the day, marking its highest level since June 11 before returning to linger around the $1,600 level at the time of writing.

$ETH recover starts to look as V-shaped.

Resistances to look @:
$1700 which i thing will be destroyed.
Stronger $2.5ks, which also is 61.8 fib retracement, if fomo kicks in i’m finally expecting $3.2ks, 78.6% fib.

— Wolf (@IamCryptoWolf) July 22, 2022

“Textbook bull flag breakout as Ethereum continues its hot streak,” trading software provider TrendSpider told Twitter followers about the ETH/USD daily chart as the highs entered.

Ethereum was once again the leader in terms of daily gains among the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap. Versus its lows from just 10 days prior, ETH/USD was up 62%.

*ETH/USD 1-day candle chart (Binance). Source: TradingView*

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Will Ethereum Merge hopium continue, or is it a bull trap?

ETH has gained 48% over the past week, leaving most of its crypto brethren behind — though it’s still risky days ahead given the macroeconomic factors at play.

Ethereum is outperforming the broader cryptocurrency market as the highly anticipated Merge approaches, but the bigger picture is still largely bearish.

Ether (ETH) has gained a whopping 48% over the past seven days, outperforming its big brother Bitcoin (BTC), which has only managed to achieve 19% in the same period. It’s also up 66% from its market cycle bottom of $918 on June 19, reaching its current price of $1549.

However, the current ETH rally could be a bull trap with the macroeconomic clouds darkening. A bull trap is a signal indicating that a declining trend in a crypto asset has reversed and is heading upward when it will actually continue downward.

The primary driver of recent momentum for the asset has been linked to announcements regarding its final switch to proof-of-stake (PoS), which has been slated for Sept. 19.

The Merge will reduce the network’s energy consumption by more than 99%. However, it will not necessarily reduce transaction fees significantly, as this will occur when scaling takes place via sharding, which is expected sometime next year.

On Tuesday, a Coinbase report on the Merge explained that the next major step and last dress rehearsal is the Goerli testnet Merge, which has been planned for August 11.

Goerli is the most battle-tested Ethereum environment with the most user activity and the closest simulation of the real thing.

Is This Me who is Thinking that Ethereum will start the BULL RUN with his Merge ??#eth #Ethereum #ethereum2 #ethereum #Bullish #bullish pic.twitter.com/oSHDKTz6vw

— Crypto Diamond (@ImCryptoDimond) July 19, 2022

While the major upgrade is the fundamental driver of current ETH market sentiment, the asset is still trading down 68% from its November 2021 all-time high.

There have also been concerns that a significant amount of ETH may flood the market after the Merge and its release from its staking smart contracts.

However, director of research at 21Shares, Eliézer Ndinga, told Cointelegraph that this is unlikely to happen:

“The withdrawals of Ether won’t occur until 6-12 months post Merge after the Shanghai upgrade. The withdrawals will be limited to six validators every epoch or ~ 6 minutes to avoid bank runs and keep the network secure.”

According to a recent survey by Finder, conducted before the most recent rally, said there is still a lot of negative sentiment regarding short-term Ether prices.

The panel of 54 industry experts polled thought ETH would be worth $1,711 by the end of 2022, climbing to $5,739 by 2025, before hitting $14,412 by 2030. However, they also thought it would dump to $675 before the year was out.

Finder said there are a couple of macroeconomic factors that could cause this retreat. The United States Federal Reserve is expected to hike rates again by 75 basis points during their July 26-27 meeting, which is generally bearish for crypto markets. If Bitcoin (BTC) takes a dive, Ether is sure to follow.

Additionally, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its advance estimate of second-quarter GDP growth on July 28. Another negative quarter, which is expected, will mean that the country is in a technical recession, which is also very bad for risk-on assets such as Ether.

Bitcoin lurks by $22K as US dollar falls from peak, Ethereum gains 20%

It’s all about Ethereum for crypto traders on the day as Bitcoin faces crucial resistance and a slew of sellers lying in wait.

Bitcoin (BTC) hugged $22,000 on July 19 as macro conditions slowly turned to favor risk assets.

Stocks, crypto rise as dollar weakens

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD cooling volatility immediately below the crucial 200-week moving average (WMA).

The Wall Street open saw further gains for United States equities in the face of a declining U.S. dollar, which extended its retracement after hitting its latest two-decade peak.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) stood at around 106.5 at the time of writing, down 2.6% from the high seen July 14.

For Bitcoin analysts, it was thus a case of wait and see as markets bided their time between buy and sell levels.

$BTC / $USD – Update

These are the options on #Bitcoin right .. If we can sustain above the $21,700 range high and gain momentum, we can pump for the wave 3 ..

However, if we die down i am looking for another corrective wave down .. pic.twitter.com/cLGVGdTivK

— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) July 19, 2022

“Shared this chart before, but just like that the $DXY is tanking, resulting into risk-on assets showing some momentum,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe tweeted in an update on the day alongside a DXY chart.

“Yields need to drop now too, but the weakness on the Dollar could put more strength on crypto and Bitcoin.”

*U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingView*

On-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators, meanwhile, flagged the difference in strength between “psychological” levels such as $21,000 and $22,000 and the 200 WMA closer to $23,000.

“IMO, resistance at $21k and $22k are psychological, whereas the 200 WMA serves as legit technical resistance. FireCharts shows more BTC bid liquidity coming in to support an R/S flip at $21k,” it told Twitter followers on the day publishing data from the Binance order book.

“Looking for more bid liquidity to challenge the ever important 200 WMA.”

*BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/ Twitter*

The day belongs to Ethereum

Deja vu for altcoin traders, meanwhile, came in the form of outperformance from Ether (ETH) versus other major cryptocurrencies’ intraday gains.

ETH/USD, already up 25% in a week, added to its momentum overnight, climbing another 20% in just over 24 hours to briefly pass $1,600.

Resistance in the form of the 2018 high at $1,530 posed little problem for bulls, with the level forming a support focus at the time of writing.

“Ethereum relative to Bitcoin has closed above a key resistance,” popular trading account Game of Traders forecast.

“Buckle up for some big moves.”

Institutional investor sentiment about ETH improves as Merge approaches

Professional investors are warming to Ethereum again as ETH-based funds see a third consecutive week of inflows.

Ether (ETH) prices may have dipped again on Wednesday, but there are signs that professional investors are warming to the asset as the highly anticipated Merge draws closer.

In its digital asset fund flows weekly report, fund manager CoinShares reported that Ether-based products saw inflows for the third consecutive week. There was an inflow of $7.6 million for institutional Ether funds, whereas those for Bitcoin (BTC) continued to outflow with a loss of $1.7 million.

Referring to the Ether funds, CoinShares stated: “The inflows suggest a modest turnaround in sentiment, having endured 11 consecutive weeks of outflows that brought 2022 outflows to a peak of US$460M.” It added that the change in sentiment may be due to the increasing probability of the Merge happening later this year.

The Merge is a highly anticipated Ethereum upgrade that changes its consensus mechanism from proof-of-work (PoW) to proof-of-stake (PoS). It is currently preparing for one final test run, and the Merge proper is expected before October.

In late June, institutional investors started introducing capital back into Ether-based funds during a week that saw record outflows of $423 million, the majority from Bitcoin-based funds.

For the period, there was an overall inflow of $14.6 million but short Bitcoin funds made up $6.3 million, suggesting investors were still bearish on the king of crypto. United States funds and exchanges saw inflows totaling $8.2 million, with 76% of them comprising short positions, a similar percentage to the week ending July 8.

The warming of institutional investors to Ether has not been reflected in the asset’s spot price today. ETH is currently trading down 2.9% over the past 24 hours at $1,047, having lost 28% over the past month, according to CoinGecko.

Crypto Twitter has been busy debating whether Ether should be classed as a security or not, with the specter of tribalism raising its ugly head again. Bitcoin maximalists have sided with MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor who said that ETH was “obviously” a security last week.

However, this has been widely disputed by Ethereum proponents, including co-founder Vitalik Buterin who offered his take on the dispute on Tuesday.

Bitcoin passes $23.8K May low as crypto market cap drops under $1 trillion

The crypto sell-off is in full swing, and Wall Street has not even opened yet.

Bitcoin (BTC) faced continued selling pressure before the June 13 Wall Street open as Ether (ETH) revisited multiyear lows.

Bitcoin battles for $24,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD eclipsing its 10-month lows set in mid-May.

The largest cryptocurrency faced bearish triggers on multiple fronts, these coming from both within and beyond the crypto sphere.

Fintech protocol Celsius appeared on the brink of meltdown after operations were halted, turning billions of dollars in collateral into new risk for crypto markets. In an event ironically similar to that which caused the May rout, Bitcoin and altcoins kept falling as fresh uncertainty filled the air.

Macro conditions were hardly better, with Asian markets selling off and Wall Street futures looking set to continue the downtrend that set in last week.

Inflation concerns likewise remained ahead of crucial comments from the United States Federal Reserve due June 15.

“I call it.. the long bear,” popular analyst Crypto Chase summarized:

“For real though, we do not know when Fed will change tune, developments of war in Ukraine, US presidential election on horizon, supply chain issues, etc. Markets do NOT like uncertainty. I can be a trader of bounces sure, but investor? Not yet.”

Others were more confident, both on longer and shorter timeframes.

Here is your smart money. Since our Wave 3 peak at 65k they have increased $BTC holdings from approx. 11M to over 13M. This is a re-accumulation range, not distribution. Look at the comments below- most say “they must be selling” or “they already sold”. Nah, the data doesn’t lie. https://t.co/LVLhiNWNxM pic.twitter.com/2QqXEKWmDY

— CrediBULL Crypto (@CredibleCrypto) June 13, 2022

“The expectations are that the FED will hike on next week’s meeting,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe added:

“Normal, and highly expected. However, this expectation is overshooting towards extensive hikes (75bps). I don’t see that. Probably 50bps and that’s it. Markets always overreact.”

The overall cryptocurrency market capitalizatio, meanwhile, fell under the $1 trillion mark for the first time since February 2021.

*Crypto market cap 1-week candle chart. Source: TradingView*

Ethereum faces $1,000 price target

Continuing the bearish theme, altcoins looked even more primed to hemorrhage value on the day.

Ether, fresh from dropping below its realized price over the weekend, is now trading below its all-time highs set during Bitcoin’s previous halving cycle.

This is the last time $ETH went oversold on the weekly (hasn’t confirmed here yet).

I had no followers, but macro bottom ticked it.

Note, you can push way lower on weekly rsi, not trying to catch a bottom. https://t.co/kLCynTKTcS

— The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) June 12, 2022

ETH/USD fluctuated near $1,230 at the time of writing, a level last seen in January 2021. The old cycle’s peak, set in January 2018, was around $1,530.

*ETH/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView*

“Things getting so bad so fast that the 200W SMA for $BTC & $ETH will both be severely tested,” crypto venture capital fund Placeholder founder Chris Burniske concluded:

“$ETH likely breaks it cleanly & heads to bigger psychological test of $1K, $BTC will put up a bigger fight but given the clouds on the horizon hard to see it not toying w/ $20K & below.”

Bitcoin price drops to lowest since May as Ethereum market trades at 18.4% loss

Bitcoin threatens its lowest weekly close since late 2020 as low weekend liquidity exacerbates existing weakness.

Bitcoin (BTC) saw further losses on June 12 as thin weekend trading volumes fueled an ongoing sell-off.

Analyst likens risk asset ‘pump’ to 1929

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting lows of $27,150 on its sixth straight day of downside.

With hours to go until the weekly close, the pair was in danger of resuming the losing streak, which had previously seen a record nine weeks of red candles in a row.

To avoid that outcome and put in a second “green” close, BTC/USD needed to gain over $2,000 from the current spot price, which at the time of writing was $27,400.

*BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView*

With support levels failing to change the mood thanks to the thinner liquidity during the weekend’s “out-of-hours” trading, analysts feared that a retest of May’s ten-month lows was due.

“Well, Bitcoin couldn’t hold $29.3K and started dropping down some more. Looking to see how the $28.5K area is going to react,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe wrote in his latest BTC update on June 11:

“If that doesn’t hold, $26/24K on the cards.”

Amid continuing talk of “capitulation” across other crypto assets, many focused on the fate of highly-correlated stock markets. Mike McGlone, senior commodities strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, risk assets more broadly could already have seen peak exuberance in the past two years.

“If the stock market keeps going down, virtually everything will have peaked,” he told Twitter followers:

“Just some normal reversion can feel like a crash and the 2020-21 risk asset pump may go down in history like 1929 and 1999.”

At the day’s lows near $27,000, meanwhile, Bitcoin traded the closest to its May “mini” capitulation event since that day of turmoil took place at the hands of the Terra LUNA implosion.

For many, the question was thus how to know where the true macro price floor for Bitcoin could lie.

“If price reaches low 20ks, you will see most of CT calling for 10k or even lower. That will be the bottom confirmation,” popular Twitter account Il Capo of Crypto argued.

As Cointelegraph reported, guesses for a generational bottom range from as high as $27,000 to a grimly bearish $14,000 or even lower.

Ethereum makes key realized price crossover

For altcoins, meanwhile, the picture was more precarious.

A look at the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap revealed heavier daily losses than BTC/USD, with some shedding over 10%.

Ether (ETH), the largest altcoin, fell around 7% on the day, taking the spot price below the realized price for the first time since May.

Realized price refers to the combined price at which each token last moved, and its breach put ETH at increased risk of panic-based capitulation. Bitcoin’s realized price, at around $24,000, was barely touched during the May dip.

“With the price declines over the weekend, the Ethereum market has fallen below the $ETH Realized Price of $1,781,” on-chain analytics firm Glassnode commented on an accompanying chart:

“This means the market is holding an average unrealized loss of -18.4%. The Realized Price of ETH 2.0 deposits is higher at $2,404, with an unrealized loss of -39.6%.”

*Ethereum realized price vs. ETH/USD annotated chart. Source: TradingView*

Brandt’s bearish ETH call — But community predicts $3K before Merge

Peter Brandt noted that ETH could drop by 29% if the downside of a potential descending triangle chart pattern is completed.

Veteran futures trader Peter Brandt has suggested that the price of Ether (ETH) could drop to as low as $1,268 in the coming month, but the consensus view of 15,500 members of the CoinMarketCap community is that the price will have hit roughly $3,131 by June 30.

The Ethereum network is now in the final steps of its long-awaited Merge with the Beacon Chain and transition to proof-of-stake (PoS), with developers confirming on Wednesday that they successfully completed the Ropsten testnet merge.

The Ropsten testnet has now been merged!

What a historic and thrilling day for the Ethereum community and what a thrilling day for

Next up, 2 more public testnet merges and then mainnet

The Merge is coming

— sassal.eth (@sassal0x) June 8, 2022

While the timeframe has often been subject to delays, the Merge is slated to go live in August if all goes to plan. The switch to PoS will massively decrease the energy consumption of the Ethereum network while also improving its security.

The price of ETH has barely responded to the latest encouraging developments, however, and is down 1.7% over the past 24 hours to sit at $1,788 at the time of writing.

Brandt has been trading since 1975 and has gained the attention of the crypto community in the past by predicting some of Bitcoin’s (BTC) historical heights and crashes.

If the bearish scenario he outlined for ETH comes true, it would mark a further 29% drop this month.

On Tuesday, Brandt highlighted a month-to-month chart from April to June to his 648,000 Twitter followers and noted that the rest of June could be rough for Ether if the market sentiment doesn’t turn significantly:

“Classical charting 101. This is a POSSIBLE descending triangle. A downside completion, unless immediately nullified, would not be constructive.”

Classical charting 101

This is a POSSIBLE descending triangle. A downside completion, unless immediately nullified, would not be constructive$ETHUSD pic.twitter.com/33kOZK4tjF

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) June 7, 2022

Trader Crypto Tony also highlighted a similar scenario to his 201,000 Twitter followers, questioning whether a descending triangle on the ETH chart was “too obvious” to ignore. Crypto Tony’s bearish estimates were slightly higher, however, at the $1,450–$1,600 range.

But the community on CoinMarketCap seems bullish — or at least high on hopium — about the near future of ETH, with 15,466 voters accounting for an average price estimate of $3,131.75 by June 30. The climb to the level would mark a mammoth increase of 75.37%.

CoinMarketCap enables the community to vote on predicted price targets via a tab under its listed asset pages. Apart from this prediction, around 8,500 people have estimated ETH will have hit $2,981.27 by July 31, or a 66.94% increase, shortly before the Merge.

In general, the community on CoinMarketCap that votes on ETH price predictions has had varying levels of success since December.

They predicted ETH’s closing price of 2021 with 88.40% accuracy, meaning they were 11.6% off the actual price of $3,682.63 with their estimation of $4,109.65.

They then predicted the bearish drop of January with 54% accuracy, February at 76.17% accuracy, March at 89.91%, and April at 62.41%. However, they fell off massively in May with 16.97% accuracy, although that was an unprecedented month, in which Do Kwon’s Terra ecosystem caused a multi-billion-dollar market crash.