ETH Price

Why is Ether (ETH) price up today?

Ethereum price is up today as network revenue skyrockets and ETH clears the $2,300 resistance.

Ether (ETH), the native token of the Ethereum network, is witnessing a breakout on the back of increasing institutional interest in the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap. The increased bullish sentiment pushed Ether price up by 23.7% over the past 30 days. The fact that ETH trades above $2,300 could indicate that increased attention is shifting toward Ether. Year to date, ETH price is up by 96.5%.

Let’s review a few of the reasons for Ether’s price strength.

A surge in traders’ interest in Ether began on Nov. 1 when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) acknowledged Grayscale Investment’s application to convert its Ethereum trust into an ETF.

Can Ethereum crack $2K? ETH price inches closer despite new unlocked supply

Ethereum staking withdrawals are gathering momentum but have not been able to cause a major sell-off as many anticipated post-Shapella upgrades.

The price of Ethereum’s Ether (ETH) token edged toward $2,000 a day after the launch of the network’s long-anticipated Shapella upgrade .

Ethereum ducks sell-the-news fears

On April 13, Ether’s price gained roughly 4% to reach an intraday high of $1,996 on Coinbase, ignoring the potential sell-off pressure the Shapella upgrade could potentially bring to the market.

*ETH/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

To recap: The Shanghai hard fork, also known as “Shapella,” enables users to withdraw their ETH from Ethereum’s proof-of-stake smart contract.

As of 9:00 am UTC on April 13, over 98,000 ETH worth around $194.8 million has left Ethereum’s voting balance reserves since the Shanghai launch a day ago, according to Nansen. In other words, nearly $200 million in potential selling pressure has entered the market.

*ETH deposits vs. withdrawals. Source: Nansen*

But Ether’s price rise since Shanghai suggests that the market has had no problem absorbing any selling pressure arising from this event so far. It’s also possible that most users have decided to hold onto their ETH staking rewards rather than sell them in anticipation of further gains.

About 15% of Ethereum’s total supply in circulation, nearly 120.4 million ETH, is currently staked.

Interestingly, more than 70% of the ETH staked is still underwater compared to current price levels, according to data gathered by Dune Analytics. This reduces the possibility of a sell-off in the near term from Shanghai’s staking withdrawals.

Ethereum price risks 10% correction

The ongoing run-up in the Ethereum market has left ETH/USD slightly overbought, raising the likelihood of a short-term price correction this month.

Notably, ETH’s daily relative strength index (RSI) is merely two points below its overbought threshold of 70. In addition, ETH/USD tested a critical resistance level near $1,990, which preceded price pullbacks in May and August 2022.

A repeat of this scenario likely means a correction toward its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) near $1,750 in April, down about 10% from the current price levels. This ETH price level is also close to the historical support/resistance line.

Conversely, a decisive breakout above $2,000 — a psychological resistance level — could have Ether price start its potential climb toward $3,000.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Ethereum Shanghai hard fork: ETH price set for more gains versus Bitcoin in April

Ethereum price has gained momentum in April, even against Bitcoin, as the much-anticipated Shanghai hard fork is just days away.

Ether (ETH) dropped by over 7.5% in its Bitcoin (BTC) pair in 2023. But ETH/BTC may wipe its year-to-date losses entirely in April, as Ethereum’s long-awaited Shanghai hard fork is just days away.

The upgrade is set for April 12, enabling Ethereum stakers to withdraw around 1.1 billion ETH in rewards — worth over $2 billion as of April 8.

ETH price undergoes key technical bounce

Many experts see the hard fork as bullish for Ether in the long term. For instance, the Shanghai buzz has helped Ether outperform Bitcoin in April.

As a result, the ETH/BTC pair has risen by about 4.75% month-to-date to reach 0.066 BTC as of April 8, a nearly 8% rebound since March 20.

The bounce was largely expected , particularly as ETH/BTC dropped to its historical ascending trendline support. Now, the upside move raises the prospects of an extended bullish retracement toward its descending trendline resistance, marked as a “sell zone” in the chart below.

*ETH/BTC three-day price chart. Source: TradingView*

The fractal-based outlook puts Ether on target for 0.075 BTC by June, up 10% versus current price levels. Meanwhile, the pair’s upside target for April appears to be its 50-3D exponential moving average (50-3D EMA; the red wave) near 0.069 BTC.

Conversely, a decisive close below the 200-3D EMA (the blue wave) near 0.066 BTC, coinciding support/resistance level near 0.067 BTC, risks delaying or — in the worst case scenario — invalidating the bullish retracement setup.

This bearish argument echoes independent market analyst CrediBULL Crypto who expects strong selling pressure near the 0.067 BTC resistance level that would lead to a 50% drop in 2023.

*ETH/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView/CrediBULL Crypto*

Ethereum vs. U.S. dollar outlook

The ETH/USD pair has rallied by more than 50% in 2023, primarily due to similar uptrends elsewhere in the crypto market.

A weakening dollar, lower U.S. Treasury yields and expectations of a Federal Reserve pivot on interest rate hikes have helped cryptocurrencies rise across the board in Q1. These catalysts will likely remain in the spotlight until May’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Shanghai bringing the first greenshoots of #AltcoinSeason ?$ETH is perking up to an 8 month high as we approach one week until the Shanghai fork update @ 10:27:35 PM UTC on the 12th (Epoch #620,9536)

The rally has mostly been a Fed/USD rates story, causing BTC to lead the way.… pic.twitter.com/dI0bpywR16

— Rich Rosenblum (@Rich_GSR) April 4, 2023

As a result, Ether could sustain its yearly gains in April, consolidating inside the $1,800–2,000 range until the Fed decision.

Moreover, a decisive breakout at current levels could result in extended gains with a second-quarter ETH price target of over $3,000.

*ETH/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView*

On the other hand, the bears will attempt to pull the price down for a close below $1,800, with the triangle’s lower trendline near $1,600 as its downside target.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin whales push ‘choreographed’ BTC price as Ether nears $2K

Bitcoin and Ethereum are both attempting to tackle major price boundaries, but suspicions over the cause of the rally remain.

Bitcoin (BTC) headed back toward $29,000 into April 5 as data showed whale orders guiding price action.

*BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView*

Analysis: BTC price push still “bear market rally”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it hit $28,780 on Bitstamp.

The pair continued a rebound from one-week lows under $27,300 at the start of the week courtesy of rumors around the Binance crypto exchange and its CEO, Changpeng “CZ” Zhao.

After reclaiming $28,000, Bitcoin saw fresh momentum as Binance order book data showed large-volume “whale” traders buying.

$BTC Binance Spot
Keep an eye on the $28K area, those stacked buy walls will either support market buying here or will be pulled later.

Supply is consistently being filled in these squeezes.

6K BTC bought in past 1H candle pic.twitter.com/Dv7YzggCDu

— Skew Δ (@52kskew) April 5, 2023

This was not all as it seemed for bulls, monitoring resource Material Indicators nonetheless warned, as those same traders could be artificially pushing the market higher in order to sell closer to $30,000.

“Likely a choreographed attempt to push the distribution range up in the short term,” part of the accompanying commentary stated.

“Personally still treating this as #BearMarketRally until proven otherwise.”

A subsequent print of the order book with liquidity levels showed the spot price eating into a dense cloud of asks, potentially stranding latecomers choosing to go long BTC believing that the upside may continue.

*BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/ Twitter*

Others were more hopeful that $30,000 could see a genuine challenge after being absent from the chart for nearly a year.

Among them was Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight.

“Bitcoin looks eager to break the crucial barrier at $30K, while altcoins are also waking up,” he told Twitter followers on the day.

“If Bitcoin makes that breakout, we’ll probably see significant breakout across the board on altcoins as confidence comes back in the markets.”

Analytics account IncomeSharks was similarly optimistic when it came to altcoins, in particular, opting to swap BTC exposure for alternatives at current prices.

“Been waiting all year for this,” it announced.

“If we can hold this and keep pushing up get ready to not care what Bitcoin does and make multiple X’s on alts. Part of me selling some $BTC at $28,000 is me wanting more exposure to alts.”

*Total crypto market cap annotated chart. Source: IncomeSharks/ Twitter*

The day prior, popular trader Crypto Tony had agreed that liquidity was “moving” away from Bitcoin on short timeframes.

ETH must hold crucial range high

With that, the largest altcoin Ether (ETH) looked primed for an attack on $2,000 at the time of writing, having gained nearly 5% in the past 24 hours.

*ETH/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView*

Analyzing moves on ETH/USD, now at eight-month highs, trading suite DecenTrader noted that funding rates had already been hinting at the upside to come.

#Ethereum Funding Rate functioning perfect as a leading indicator for the multiple moves higher. https://t.co/zypZt1kq5M pic.twitter.com/oYadIkIN44

— Decentrader (@decentrader) April 5, 2023

“The goal now is for Ethereum to now stay above the range high at $1,840,” Crypto Tony added in his own ETH/USD analysis.

*ETH/USD annotated chart. Source: Crypto Tony/Twitter*

“If we begin closing back below, the we have a deviation and we know what that means.”

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

3 reasons why Ethereum price can reach $3K in Q2

Ethereum on-chain and technical indicators show a long-term bullish argument for ETH price in the near to medium terms.

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), eyes a run-up toward $3,000 in Q2 2023 after wrapping the previous quarter with 55% gains.

ETH price nears potential breakout

The price of Ether has more than doubled after bottoming out in June at around $880, weathering a slew of negative events, including the collapse of FTX, interest rate increases, and stricter U.S. regulations.

In doing so, ETH/USD has painted an ascending triangle, confirmed by its rising trendline support and horizontal level resistance. The pattern suggests aggressive buying as lows get steadily higher while highs stay around the same level, indicative of a higher selling pressure at the given level.

As of April 2, ETH’s price is testing its horizontal level resistance range ($1,700-1,820) for a potential breakout move.

*ETH/USD three-day price chart featuring an “ascending triangle” bottom setup.*

A breakout will be confirmed if the price closes above the resistance range while accompanying higher volumes. Furthermore, the ascending triangle breakout target is measured with its length equal to the triangle height.

In other words, the bullish ETH price target is in the $3,350-3,900 range, depending on where traders see the triangle’s rising trendline support, as shown by the T1 and T2 in the chart above. This would suggest 80% gains by June.

Conversely, a pullback from the $1,700-1,820 range risks delaying the upside setup and resulting in a broader price correction.

Ethereum whale accumulation remains strong

From an on-chain perspective, Ether’s short-term and long-term trends look skewed toward the bulls.

Most Ethereum whale cohorts have increased their ETH accumulation in recent weeks, according to the latest data from Santiment. For instance, the supply of Ether held by addresses with a 1,000-10,000 ETH balance (blue in the chart below) has grown by 0.5% in March.

*Ether supply distribution among investors holding at least 1,000 ETH. Source: Santiment*

Similarly, the 1 million-10 million ETH (brown) and the 10 million – 100 million ETH balance cohorts have witnessed 0.4% and 0.5% rises, respectively.

The growth appeared amid what appears to be the absorption of selling pressure introduced by the 100,000-1 million ETH (pink) and 10,000-100,000 ETH (orange) address cohorts.

At the same time, the growth could attributed to the network’s proof-of-stake contracts — directly or by using third-party stakers such as Lido DAO (LDO).

*Ethereum 2.0 total value staked [in ETH]. Source: Glassnode*

The net Ether deposited at the official Ethereum 2.0 address crossed above 18 million ETH after rising about 3.5% in March.

The deposits have grown ahead of Ethereum’s Shanghai and Capella upgrades on April 12, which will enable stakers to withdraw ETH from the PoS smart contract. Currently, this is not possible.

MVRV Z-Score: Ethreum price bottom reversal

More bullish arguments stem from Ethereum’s MVRV Z-Score entering a stage that has previously preceded long-term ETH price rallies.

*Ethereum MVRV-Z Score. Source: Glassnode*

The MVRV Z-Score assesses when Ethereum is overvalued and undervalued relative to its “fair value.” As a rule, the MVRV Z-score indicates a market top (red zone) when market value rises above realized value, while the opposite indicates market bottoms (green zone).

Ether’s previous price recoveries coincide with its MVRV Z-Score bouncing from the green zone, suggesting the same could happen over the next three months.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Solana overcomes FTX fiasco — SOL price gains 100% in Q1

The cryptocurrency market may have overreacted to Solana’s FTX links and its tainted boss, Sam Bankman-Fried.

The price of Solana (SOL) fell nearly 95% in 2022, partly due to its association with tainted crypto entrepreneur Sam Bankman-Fried and his collapsed ventures, FTX and Alameda Research. But so far in 2023, things have improved for SOL’s price.

Solana’s price doubles in Q1/2023

Solana’s price has risen 104% to around $20.60 per SOL in the first quarter of 2023, the highest gains compared to any cryptocurrency in the top 25, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH).

*Solana beats top-ranking assets’ Q1/2023 returns. Source: Messari*

In fact, January was Solana’s best month since August 2021 in terms of price performance.

SOL’s price rallied by about 140% in it without any major fundamentals that could have driven the rates up. Nonetheless, the SOL/USD pair became excessively oversold in December 2022, which may have influenced traders to buy the dip.

The rally also coincided with Messari’s analysis of the Solana ecosystem after the FTX collapse, showing its staking and decentralization were stable and actually improved its position after the FTX fiasco.

“Solana will continue to release a multitude of initiatives, including network upgrades, ecosystem developments, and community efforts, to name a few,” wrote James Stautman, a researcher at Messari, adding:

“After a tumultuous year fraught with one challenge after another, light appears to be at the end of the tunnel heading into 2023.”

In other words, the market may have overreacted to Solana’s ties with Bankman-Fried in Q4 of last year, resulting in a sharp rebound.

What’s next for SOL’s price?

Solana underperformed the broader crypto market in February and March after SOL’s January spike left it technically overbought.

Solana’s price lost about 40% from the January peak. Its market dominance (SOL.D) also dropped from 0.98% in January to 0.69% in March, suggesting that traders rotated capital elsewhere.

*SOL.D monthly price chart. Source: TradingView*

Nevertheless, as of March 31, Solana is trading above two technical support levels: a horizontal trendline that has capped SOL’s downside attempts mostly throughout Q1/2023 and an ascending trendline that served as backup support in early March when the horizontal one failed.

These two support levels have converged. Therefore, SOL/USD now eyes a short-term bounce from there toward a multi-month support/resistance flip level of around $26.50, as shown below.

*SOL/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

That leaves Solana with a 30% upside prospect in April. Conversely, a drop below the two support levels could have SOL’s price retest its March low of $16 as the next downside target.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

These 5 cryptocurrencies may continue to surprise to the upside

Bitcoin, ETH, BNB, STX, and IMX remain strong on the charts, increasing the likelihood of more gains in the near term.

Bitcoin (BTC) is on track to close the week with gains of more than 23%. The banking crisis in the United States and Europe seems to have boosted buying in Bitcoin, indicating that the leading cryptocurrency is behaving as a safe haven asset in the near term.

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s meeting on March 21 and 22. The failure of three banks in the U.S. has increased hopes that the Fed will not hike rates at the meeting. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 38% probability of a pause and a 62% probability of a 25 basis points rate hike on March 22.

*Crypto market data daily view. Source:* *Coin360*

Analysts are divided on the consequences of the current crisis on the economy. Former Coinbase chief technology officer Balaji Srinivasan believes that the U.S. will enter a period of hyperinflation, while pseudonymous Twitter user James Medlock believes otherwise. Srinivasan has bet $2 million with Medlock and another person that Bitcoin’s price will reach $1 million by June 17.

Although anything is possible in crypto markets, traders should be prudent in their trading and not get carried away with lofty targets.

Let’s study the charts of Bitcoin and altcoins that are showing signs of the resumption of the up-move after a minor correction.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin soared above the $25,250 resistance on March 17, completing a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern.

Usually, a breakout from a major setup returns to retest the breakout level but in some cases, the rally continues unabated.

*BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView*

The rising 20-day exponential moving average ($24,088) and the relative strength index (RSI) in the overbought territory indicate advantage to buyers. If the price breaks above $28,000, the rally could pick up momentum and surge to $30,000 and thereafter to $32,000. This level is likely to witness strong selling by the bears.

Another possibility is that the price turns down from the current level but rebounds off $25,250. That will also keep the bullish trend intact.

The positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the price plummets below the moving averages. Such a move will suggest that the break above $25,250 may have been a bull trap. That could open the doors for a possible drop to the psychologically critical level of $20,000.

*BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

The four-hour chart shows that the BTC/USDT pair is facing profit-booking near $27,750 but a positive sign is that the pullback has been shallow. Buyers will try to drive the price above $28,000 and resume the uptrend. The pair could then climb toward $30,000.

On the other hand, if the price turns down and slumps below the 20-EMA, it will suggest that the traders are rushing to the exit. That may pull the price down to the important support at $25,250 where the bulls and the bears may witness a tough battle.

Ether price analysis

The bulls conquered the $1,800 resistance on March 18 but could not sustain the higher levels. This shows that the bears are protecting the $1,800 level on Ether (ETH) with vigor.

*ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView*

The critical support to watch on the downside is the zone between $1,680 and the 20-day EMA ($1,646). If the price rebounds off this zone, it will signal that the sentiment has turned positive and traders are buying on dips.

Buyers will then again try to resume the uptrend and drive the price toward the next target objective at $2,000. This level may prove to be a major hurdle for the bulls to cross.

Contrarily, if the price turns down and slumps below the moving averages, it will suggest that the bulls are losing their grip. The ETH/USDT pair may then drop to $1,461.

*ETH/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

The four-hour chart shows that the pair bounced off the support at $1,743. This suggests that the bulls are buying the shallow dips and are not waiting for a deeper correction to get in. Buyers will next try to kick the price above $1,841. If this level is taken out, the pair may sprint toward $2,000.

Contrarily, if the price turns down and plunges below $1,743, short-term traders may book profits. The pair could then slide to the next important support at $1,680.

BNB price analysis

BNB (BNB) rose above $338 on March 18, which invalidated the bearish H&S pattern. Usually, when a bearish pattern fails, it attracts buying from the bulls and short covering by the bears.

*BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView*

The onus is on the bulls to keep the price above the immediate support at $318. If they manage to do that, the BNB/USDT pair could first climb to $360 and thereafter dash toward $400. The upsloping 20-day EMA ($309) and the RSI near the overbought territory indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside.

If bears want to gain the upper hand, they will have to yank the price back below the moving averages. This may not be an easy task but if completed successfully, the pair could tumble to $280.

*BNB/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

The four-hour chart shows that the bulls are buying the dips to the 20-EMA. The bears tried to halt the recovery at $338 but the bulls have pierced this resistance. Buyers will try to push the pair to $346. If this level gives way, the pair may continue its uptrend.

Alternatively, if the price turns down and breaks below 20-EMA, it will suggest that the short-term bulls may be booking profits on rallies. The pair could then slump to $318 where the buyers may step in to arrest the decline.

Stacks price analysis

Stacks (STX) rallied from $0.52 on March 10 to $1.29 on March 18, a sharp run within a short time. This suggests aggressive buying by the bulls.

*STX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView*

The STX/USDT pair is witnessing profit-booking near $1.29 but a positive sign is that the bulls have not ceded much ground to the bears. This suggests that minor dips are being bought. Typically, in a strong uptrend, corrections last for one to three days.

If the price turns up and breaks above $1.29, the pair could resume its uptrend. The next stop on the upside is likely to be $1.55 and then $1.80.

The first sign of weakness on the downside will be a break and close below $1. That could clear the path for a drop to the 20-day EMA ($0.84).

*STX/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

The pair has corrected to the 20-EMA. This is an important level for the bulls to defend if they want to resume the up-move. If the price rebounds off the 20-EMA, the pair could retest the overhead resistance at $1.29. If bulls overcome this barrier, the next leg of the uptrend may begin.

Conversely, if bears sink the price below the 20-EMA, the pair could slide to $1 and then to the 50-simple moving average. A deeper correction may delay the resumption of the up-move and keep the pair stuck inside a range for a few days.

Immutable price analysis

Immutable (IMX) skyrocketed above the overhead resistance of $1.30 on March 17, which completed the inverse H&S formation. This suggests the start of a potential new uptrend.

*IMX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView*

Meanwhile, the price may retest the breakout level of $1.30. If the price rebounds off this level with strength, it will suggest that the bulls have flipped the level into support. Buyers will then try to kick the price above $1.59 and resume the uptrend. The IMX/USDT pair may then rally to $1.85 and later to $2. The pattern target of the reversal setup is $2.23.

This positive view could be negated in the near term if the price slips below the moving averages. Such a move will suggest that the break above $1.30 may have been a bull trap. The pair could then drop to $0.80.

*IMX/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

The pair is witnessing a mild correction, which is finding support at the 20-EMA. Buyers are trying to clear the overhead hurdles at $1.59 but the bears are not relenting. If the price breaks below the 20-EMA, the pullback could reach $1.30.

Another possibility is that the price rebounds off the 20-EMA. That will indicate solid demand at lower levels and enhance the prospects of a break above $1.59. If that happens, the pair may resume its uptrend.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Price analysis 3/13: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, MATIC, DOGE, SOL

The banking crisis in the U.S. has led to aggressive buying in Bitcoin and select altcoins, which are nearing stiff overhead resistance levels.

Three banks — Silvergate Bank, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank — collapsed within a span of a few days, increasing demand for United States government bonds and sendin the yield on the 2-year Treasury tumbling to 4.06%, a fall of 100 basis points since March 8.

This was the largest three-day decline since Oct. 22, 1987, when a stock market crash saw the yield fall 117 points.

Although the Federal Reserve announced the formation of a $25 billion Bank Term Funding Program to support businesses and households, the regional banks are taking it on their chin on March 13. This shows that equities traders remain nervous.

*Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source:* *Coin360*

However, among all the mayhem, it is an encouraging sign to see Bitcoin (BTC) lead the cryptocurrency recovery from the front. Bitcoin climbed back above $24,000 on March 13, covering a large distance from the $19,549 local low hit on March 10.

Could Bitcoin and the major altcoins sustain their short-term bullish momentum? Let’s study the charts to find out.

SPX

The S&P 500 (SPX) index plunged below the 200-day simple moving average, or SMA (3,940), on March 9 and followed that up with another downward move on March 10.

A break below the 200-day SMA is a bearish sign, but if the price quickly turns up and climbs back above the level, it will suggest that the breakdown on March 9 may have been a bear trap.

The index could gain momentum after buyers thrust the price above the 20-day exponential moving average, or EMA (3,986). There is a minor resistance at 4,078, but it is likely to be crossed. The index may then soar to 4,200.

On the downside, a break and close below 3,764 will suggest that the traders are rushing to the exit. That next support is at 3,700 and then 3,650.

DXY

The recovery in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) stalled just below the 200-day SMA (106). This suggests that the bears are trying to flip the level into resistance. The selling pulled the price below the 20-day EMA (104) on March 13.

The flattening 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) just below the midpoint indicate a balance between supply and demand. This could keep the index range-bound between 101 and the 200-day SMA for some time.

If the price turns down and plummets below the support near 101, the index will complete a head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern. This bearish setup could start the next leg of the downtrend.

Conversely, a break above the 200-day SMA will attract buyers who may then push the price to 108 and thereafter to 110.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin (BTC) price rebounded off the 200-day SMA ($19,717) on March 10, and the recovery picked up momentum after the break above $21,480. This suggests that lower levels are attracting buyers.

The bulls continued the upward march and cleared the hurdle at $22,800 on March 13. This opens the gates for a retest of the stiff overhead resistance at $25,250. If buyers overcome this barrier, the BTC/USDT pair could witness aggressive short covering. That may catapult the price to $30,000.

Contrarily, if the price turns down from the overhead resistance, the pair may oscillate between the 200-day SMA and $25,250 for a while longer. Such a move will be a positive sign and improve the prospects of a break above the overhead resistance. This positive view could invalidate if the price turns down and plunges below the 200-day SMA.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) rebounded off the support near $1,352, indicating aggressive buying at lower levels. The recovery strengthened after bulls pushed the price back above $1,461.

The ETH/USDT pair rose back above the 20-day EMA ($1,565) on March 12, indicating that bulls are back in the game. Buyers will next try to stretch the relief rally to the overhead resistance at $1,743.

The flattening 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive territory suggest that the momentum favors the bulls. If buyers surmount the resistance at $1,743, the pair could soar to the psychological level at $2,000.

BNB/USDT

BNB (BNB) completed a bearish H&S pattern on March 9, but the sellers could not build upon this negative setup. Buyers purchased the drop on March 10, as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick.

The buying continued on March 12, and the bulls pushed the price back above the 200-day SMA. This may have trapped the aggressive bears who rushed to close their short positions.

That could be the reason for the sharp up-move on March 13, which propelled the price back to the overhead resistance at $318. If bulls clear this hurdle, the BNB/USDT pair may rise to $338.

If the price turns down from this level, the pair may consolidate between $338 and $265 for a few days.

XRP/USDT

XRP (XRP) has been consolidating near the strong support of $0.36 for the past few days. Usually, a tight consolidation near the support resolves to the downside.

The downsloping 20-day EMA ($0.37) and the RSI in both in the negative territory indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside.

If the price turns down from the current level and closes below $0.36, the XRP/USDT pair may drop to the support line of the descending channel pattern. The buyers are likely to defend the support near $0.33.

Alternatively, a break and close above the channel will be the first sign that the bears may be losing their grip. The pair may then ascend to the 200-day SMA ($0.39) and later to $0.43.

ADA/USDT

Cardano’s ADA (ADA) slipped below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.30, but the bears could not sustain the lower levels. This suggests solid buying by the bulls.

The ADA/USDT pair has pulled back above the 20-day EMA ($0.34). The zone between the moving averages is likely to be defended aggressively by the bears. If the price turns down from the current level, the pair may retest the strong support at $0.30. If this level cracks, the pair could drop to $0.27 and then to $0.24.

Conversely, if buyers kick the price above the 200-day SMA ($0.36), it will suggest that the corrective phase may be over. The pair may then rally to $0.42.

MATIC/USDT

Polygon’s MATIC (MATIC) rebounded off the 200-day SMA ($0.95) on March 10 and reached the 20-day EMA ($1.16) on March 12.

The bears tried to stall the recovery at the 20-day EMA on March 13, but the long tail on the day’s candlestick shows strong buying at lower levels. Buyers have shoved the price above the 20-day EMA, paving the way for a rally to $1.30.

On the contrary, if the price turns down from the current level, it will suggest that bears are guarding the 20-day EMA. That may keep the MATIC/USDT pair stuck between the moving averages for some time.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) turned up from $0.06 on March 10 and rose above the $0.07 resistance on March 12. The bulls will next try to push the price to the downtrend line.

The downsloping 20-day EMA ($0.07) and the RSI in the negative territory indicate that bears remain in control. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA or the downtrend line, the DOGE/USDT pair could again drop to $0.06. If this level gives way, the pair could extend the decline to $0.05.

Contrarily, if bulls pierce the overhead resistance at the 200-day SMA ($0.08), it will suggest that the markets have rejected the lower levels. That could first push the price to $0.10 and eventually to $0.11.

SOL/USDT

Solana’s SOL (SOL) started a recovery from $16 on March 10, but the relief rally is facing strong selling at the 20-day EMA ($20.69).

The bears will again try to sink the price back to the solid support at $15.28. A break below this crucial support could accelerate selling, and the SOL/USDT pair may tumble to $12.69.

If bulls want to prevent the decline, they will have to push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA. That could result in a retest of the strong overhead resistance zone between the 200-day SMA ($23) and the downtrend line. A break above this zone could indicate a potential trend change.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Ethereum eyes 25% correction in March, but ETH price bulls have a silver lining

The Ethereum market has grown cautious around the long-awaited Shanghai upgrade, which will unlock 17.4 million ETH into circulation.

The price of Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), shows a growing conflict among traders about the market direction for March. This uncertainty has resulted in ETH price consolidating inside a narrow sideways range between $1,600 and $1,700 since Feb. 15.

25% ETH price correction on the table in March

The uncertainty stems from Ethereum’s long-awaited Shanghai upgrade going live sometime in March.

Several analysts predict the upgrade, which will enable stakers to withdraw their vested tokens from Ethereum’s proof-of-stake (PoS) smart contract, will trigger a short-term sell-off event.

The Ethereum PoS smart contract has attracted more than 17.4 million ETH (~$28.35 billion at the current exchange rate) since its introduction in December 2020, per Etherscan.

In addition, Ether is finding it difficult to break above the technical resistance range. The Ethereum token has attempted to flip the $1,650–1,700 area to support multiple times since August 2022, as shown by the red bar in the chart below.

Interestingly, each failed breakout attempt has resulted in a strong pullback toward a common support line — a multimonth ascending trendline (black).

Therefore, if history is any indication, ETH’s next correction could potentially land its price near $1,250, down 25% from the current levels. Conversely, a break above $1,650–1,700 positions ETH for the $1,925–2,000 range (purple) as its next upside target.

Future ETH selloffs will be limited — data trackers

From an on-chain perspective, an extended Ether price crash appears less likely.

Notably, there’s been a massive drop in ETH supplies on exchanges since September 2022 — falling from around 30% to 11%. Theoretically, this reduces the immediate sell pressure as capital moves to the sidelines.

“The trend in crypto, particularly since September, has been quickly moving self-custody,” Santiment noted, adding:

“This trend picked up after the FTX collapse. Regardless, with both BTC and ETH around 5-year low exchange supplies, future sell-offs will be limited.“

In addition, data analytics firm CryptoQuant has reached a similar conclusion about potential Ether selloffs in the future, primarily in the wake of the Shanghai hard fork.

CryptoQuant notes that 60% of the staked ETH supply — about 10.3 million ETH — is currently at a loss. Meanwhile, Lido DAO, the largest Ethereum staking provider, holds 30% of all staked ETH at an average loss of $1,000, or 24%.

“Typically, selling pressure arises when participants have extreme profits, which is not the case for staked ETH currently,“ CryptoQuant wrote:

“Additionally, the most profitable staked ETH was staked less than a year ago and has not seen significant profit-taking events in the past.“

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

‘Stupid money’ Ethereum investor loses over $2M in six months — 3 lessons to learn

How can traders learn from common investment mistakes and reduce their market risks accordingly?

An anonymous Ethereum investor has lost more than $2 million trading Ether (ETH) since Sep. 9, 2022, on-chain data shows.

Buying Ethereum high, selling low

Spotted by on-chain monitoring resource Lookonchain, the “stupid money” trader spent $12.5 million in stablecoins to buy 7,135 ETH after it rallied 10% to $1,790 in September 2022. But a subsequent correction forced the trader to sell the entire stash for $10.51 million.

*Ethereum investor’s transaction history from September 2022. Source: Lookonchain*

As a result, the trader lost nearly $1.75 million. Interestingly, waiting and selling at today’s price would have resulted in a smaller loss of $1.14 million.

1/ Please don’t blindly follow the trend to buy $ETH after the price rises for a period of time, and don’t panic sell after the price drops.

A stupid money who loses more than 2M $USDC in half a year will tell you how dangerous this behavior is.

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) February 22, 2023

The investor’s trades reemerged in February as ETH price had risen by approximately 10%. Data shows that $7.65 million in ETH was acquired on Feb. 16, only to sell it eight hours later as ETH price dropped, resulting in a loss of another $324,000.

*Ethereum investor’s transaction history from February 2023. Source: Lookonchain*

3 Ethereum investment lessons to learn

Traders can use such examples to learn from others’ mistakes and reduce their investment risks with proven strategies. Let’s take a look at some of the most basic tools that can help reduce losses.

Don’t rely on just one fundamental

The investor first traded stablecoins for ETH on Sep. 12, just three days before long-awaited transition from proof-of-work (PoW) to proof-of-stake (PoS) via the Merge upgrade.

The Merge, however, turned out to be a “sell-the-news” event. Thus, going extremely bullish on Ether based on one strong fundamental was a poor decision.

Moreover, going all in while relying on one indicator, particularly a widely-anticipated news event, is often a losing strategy, which is why traders should consider multiple factors before making a decision.

*Ethereum fund outflows picked momentum ahead of the Merge. Source: CoinShares*

For instance, one such metric was institutional flows. Ether investment funds suffered outflows worth $61.6 million a week before the Merge, according to CoinShares’ weekly report, suggesting that “smart money” was leaning bearish.

Hedge with put options

Hedging with options in Ether trading enables investors to purchase options contracts opposite their current open positions. Therefore, investors could mitigate risk by opening a put option contract against their bullish spot.

A put option gives a holder the right, but not the obligation, to sell ETH at a predetermined price on or before a particular date. So, if the spot Ether price drops, the investor could sell the asset at a pre-agreed price, thus protecting himself from losses in ETH’s value.

Don’t go all-in; check momentum

Do not put all your eggs in one basket regardless of how much capital you can throw around.

Instead, entering position in increments could be a safer strategy while keeping some funds on the sidelines. Thus, traders can buy ETH during a short or long term bull run but can spare some capital to buy during potential dips, while relying on multiple technical indicators for cues.

For instance, momentum oscillators like the relative strength index (RSI) reveals whether Ether is oversold or overbought on specific timeframes. So a strategy of going long when the RSI reading is close or above the 70 and forming a lower high has a high chance of failure.

The Ethereum daily chart below shows the two instances when the abovementioned investor bought ETH alongside the RSI forming a lower high.

Ultimately, traders’ mistakes can serve as opportunities to learn what works for an investor and what doesn’t. The main takeaway is that investors should enter a market with a definite plan based on their own analysis and risk appetite.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.