ETH Options

Ethereum price metrics hint that ETH might not sell-off after the Shapella hard fork

ETH traders are exercising caution ahead of the April 12 Shapella hard fork, but the signal to watch is staking unlock requests.

Ether (ETH) price has increased by 58% year to date, but it has far underperformed the market leader Bitcoin (BTC). In fact, the ETH/BTC price ratio has dropped to 0.063, its lowest level in nine months.

Analysts believe that the majority of the movement can be attributed to the Ethereum network’s upcoming Shapella hard fork, which is scheduled for April 12 at 10:27 p.m. UTC.

*Ether / Bitcoin price ratio at Binance. Source: TradingView*

The Ethereum network upgrade will allow stakers to unlock their Ether rewards or stop staking entirely. By April 11, over 170,000 ETH withdrawals were requested, according to the analytics firm Glassnode. However, the total staked on the Beacon Chain exceeds 18.1 million ETH, which has traders fearful until more information on ETH’s potential selling pressure becomes available.

Is the price impact of the Shapella fork already priced in?

The staking unlock was widely known and expected, so traders could have anticipated the movement. Some analysts have gone so far as to call the hard fork a “buy the news” event.

Literally everyone: “Ethereum Shanghai is a buy the news event because everyone thinks it is a sell the news event” pic.twitter.com/TpyL1TDnPj

— HORSE (@CanteringClark) April 9, 2023

Using a meme, trader CanteringClark is likely expressing dissatisfaction with the theory, but to invalidate the hypothesis, one must investigate potential reasons for ETH’s underperformance other than the much anticipated hard fork.

For starters, the Ethereum network’s average transaction fee has been above $5 for the past five weeks, and the Shapella fork does not address the issue, despite minor improvements. This alone lowers the chances of a bullish breakout following the upgrade, as most decentralized applications (DApps) and projects will continue to prefer second-layer and competing networks.

Furthermore, volume at Ethereum-based decentralized exchanges (DEX) has fallen by 84% since a weekly peak of $38.2 billion on March 5. The most recent data for the week ending April 2 was $6.4 billion, according to DefiLlama. In the same period, competing blockchains saw 60% lower volumes on average, a sign that Ethereum lost market share.

According to Paul Brody, EY’s global blockchain leader, one reason for Ether’s price underperformance relative to Bitcoin could be “the battle to keep Ethereum sufficiently and properly decentralized.” Brody cites exchanges as highly centralized custodial validators, as well as some semi-centralized players and staking pool operations that invest funds from tens of thousands of individual crypto wallets.

Ether derivatives display balanced bets between bulls and bears

Let’s examine Ether derivatives metrics to determine the current market position of professional traders. For example, the open interest in Ether options for the weekly expiry on April 14 is $510 million, with neutral-to-bullish call instruments outnumbering protective put options by 36%.

Those ETH options bulls could come up empty-handed because 60% of their bets were placed at $2,000 or higher. As a result, if Ether’s price remains between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 14 at 8:00 am UTC, the outcome is balanced between call and put options. Furthermore, an expiry price between $1,900 and $2,000 represents a mere $100 million advantage for bulls, which is unlikely to justify the cost of a price pump.

Futures markets should also be examined to determine whether the Shapella hard fork has caused investors to become more risk-averse. Ether quarterly futures are popular among whales and arbitrage desks, and they typically trade at a slight premium to spot markets, indicating that sellers are requesting more money to postpone settlement.

As a result, futures contracts in healthy markets should trade at a 5% to 10% annualized premium — a situation known as contango, which is not unique to crypto markets.

*Ether 3-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas*

The premium on Ether futures is currently 2%, down from 4% the previous week. Despite being below the 5% neutral threshold, it shows no excessive short demand.

Traders should monitor staking unlock requests

Based on Ether derivatives, there is no reason to believe professional traders expect a significant price correction as a result of the staking unlock. Nonetheless, given the high transaction fees and declining DEX activity, the chances of a “buy the news” event are slim.

Professional traders would have used derivatives instruments to bet against Ether’s price because the event was widely publicized, which hasn’t happened given the ETH futures’ premium. There are no obvious reasons for a rally, but derivatives traders do not anticipate any panic selling. So, unless the number of staking unlock requests significantly increases, Ether should remain near $1,900 for the foreseeable future.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Ethereum needs to defend $1,180 to sustain this 50-day ascending pattern

ETH price bulls struggle as futures remain trading below its fair value, signaling excessive demand for shorts.

Ether (ETH) has been ranging near $1,200 since Dec. 17, but an ascending trend has been quietly gaining strength after 50 consecutive days.

The pattern points to $1,330 or higher by March 2023, making it essential for bulls to defend the current $1,180 support.

*Ether/USD 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView*

The anxiously awaited migration to a Proof of Stake in September 2022 paved the way for additional layer-2 integration and lower transaction costs overall. Layer-2 technologies such as Optimistic Rollups have the potential to improve Ethereum scalability by 100x and provide off-chain network storage.

Developers anticipate that the network upgrades scheduled for 2023 introducing large portable data bundles can boost the capacity of rollups by up to 100x. Moreover, in December 2021, Vitalik Buterin shared that the end game was for Ethereum to act as a base layer, with users “storing their assets in a ZK-rollup (zero knowledge) running a full Ethereum Virtual Machine.”

An unexpected move negatively affecting the competing smart chain platform Solana (SOL) has likely helped to fuel Ethereum investors’ expectations.

Two noticeable non-fungible token projects announced on Dec. 25 an opt-in migration to Ethereum and Polygon chains, namely eGods and y00ts. The transition will also bridge the DUST token — used to buy, sell and mint NFTs on the DeGods ecosystem — via Ethereum and Polygon.

Still, investors believe that Ether could revisit sub-$1,000 levels as the U.S. Federal Reserve continues to push interest rates higher and drain market liquidity. For example, trader and investor Crypto Tony expects the next couple of months to be extremely bearish to ETH:

$ETH / $USD – Update

I am 90% confident in another drop down to below $1,000 and remain in my short from the range high while below $1,280

Now the path we take to get to sub $1,000 can take a few approaches, including a pump first. So be prepared and use strict risk management pic.twitter.com/Rc1nVQG5Ql

— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) December 29, 2022

Let’s look at Ether derivatives data to understand if the bearish macroeconomic scenario has impacted investors’ sentiment.

Excessive demand for bearish bets using ETH futures

Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets. Meanwhile, professional traders prefer these instruments because they prevent the fluctuation of funding rates in a perpetual futures contract.

The two-month futures annualized premium should trade between +4% to +8% in healthy markets to cover costs and associated risks. When the futures trade at a discount versus regular spot markets, it shows a lack of confidence from leverage buyers, which is a bearish indicator.

*Ether 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch*

The chart above shows that derivatives traders continue to demand more leverage for short (bear) positions as the Ether futures premium remains negative. Yet, the absence of leverage buyers’ appetite does not necessarily mean that a price drop is guaranteed.

For this reason, traders should analyze Ether’s options markets to understand whether investors are pricing higher odds of surprise adverse price movements.

Ethereum ptions traders remain risk-averse

The 25% delta skew is a telling sign when market makers and arbitrage desks are overcharging for upside or downside protection.

In bear markets, options investors give higher odds for a price dump, causing the skew indicator to rise above 10%. On the other hand, bullish markets tend to drive the skew indicator below -10%, meaning the bearish put options are discounted.

*Ether 60-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas.ch*

The delta skew peaked on Dec. 24, signaling moderate fear as the protective put options traded at a 22% premium. However, the movement gradually faded to the current 17% level, indicating options traders remain uncomfortable with downside risks.

The 60-day delta skew confirms that whales and market makers are not confident that the $1,180 support will hold.

In a nutshell, both options and futures markets suggest that investors are prepared for sub-$1,000 prices. As long as the U.S. Federal Reserve maintains its contractive economic policies, bears will likely successfully suppress future Ethereum price rallies.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Ethereum rallies to $1,350, but derivatives metrics remain neutral to bearish

Pro traders aren’t buying ETH’s recent rally and data shows they expect Ether price to retrace if Fed chair Powell takes a hawkish tone on Wednesday.

Ether (ETH) rallied 6.3% to $1,350 on Dec. 13, mimicking a similar failed attempt that took place on Nov. 10. Despite reaching the highest level in 33 days, the gains were not enough to instill confidence in traders according to two key derivatives metrics.

*Ether/USD price index, 12-hour. Source: TradingView*

Bulls’ frustrations can partially be explained by Binance facing a near-record $1.1 billion in withdrawals over a 24-hour period. The unusual behavior comes as the exchange attempts to put out multiple disputes about its proof of reserves and overall solvency on crypto Twitter. According to Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao, the social media posts amount to nothing more than FUD.

However, Binance’s USD Coin (USDC) reserves were emptied after alleged troubles with commercial banking hours.

The negative newsflow continued on Dec. 13, as the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed charges against Sam Bankman-Fried, the former CEO of now-bankrupt FTX crypto exchange. The fresh charges come just a day after his arrest by Bahamian authorities at the request of the U.S. government.

On Dec. 13, the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) also filed a lawsuit against Bankman-Fried, FTX and Alameda Research, claiming violations of the Commodity Exchange Act. It demanded a jury trial.

Traders are relieved that Ether is trading above the $1,300 level, but the rebound has been mostly driven by the Consumer Price Index print for November at 7.1% year-on-year, which was a tad bit softer than expected. More importantly, the U.S. Federal Reserve is scheduled to decide on the latest interest rate hike on Dec. 14, with analysts expecting the pace of rate hikes to decline now that inflation appears to have peaked.

Consequently, investors believe that Ether could retrace its recent gains if comments Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell take a hawkish angle, a point highlighted by trader CryptoAceBTC:

Liquidity is low in market
And retracing quickly is only way to bring in buyers and sellers

I think Fed meet will be Hawkish and price will retrace this CPI pump

Bitcoin $18k $18.5k resistance
ETH $1350-$1400
Will wait for Fed meet to load shorts

— Cryptoce (@CryptoAceBTC) December 13, 2022

Let’s look at Ether derivatives data to understand if the surprise pump positively impacted investors’ sentiment.

The rally to $1,300 had a limited impact on confidence

Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets. Bu professional traders prefer these instruments because they prevent the fluctuation of funding rates in a perpetual futures contract.

The chart above shows that derivatives traders remain in “fear mode” because the Ether futures premium is below 0%, indicating the absence of leverage buyers’ demand. Still, such data does not signal traders expect further adverse price action.

For this reason, traders should analyze Ether’s options markets to understand whether investors are pricing higher odds of surprise negative price movements.

Options traders were on the verge of turning neutral

The 25% delta skew is a telling sign when market makers and arbitrage desks are overcharging for upside or downside protection.

The delta skew improved considerably between Dec. 7 and Dec. 11, declining from a fearful 16% to a neutral balanced-risk options pricing at 9.5%. The movement signaled that options traders were more comfortable with downside risks. However, the situation changed on Dec. 13 after Ether failed to break the $1,350 resistance.

As the 60-day delta skew stands at 14%, whales and market makers are reluctant to offer downside protection, which seems odd considering that ETH is trading at its highest level in 32 days. Both options and futures markets point to pro traders fearing that the $1,300 resistance will not hold ahead of the Fed meeting.

Currently, the odds favor Ether bears because the FTX exchange bankruptcy increased the possibility of stricter regulation and brought discomfort to cryptocurrency investors.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Ether tests $1,200 but bears better positioned for $1.13B options expiry on Nov. 25

Bears are better positioned to profit roughly $215 million during November’s Ether options expiry, putting pressure on ETH’s price near a critical resistance level.

No matter if one analyzes Ether’s (ETH) longer-term or weekly time frame, there is little hope for bulls. Besides the negative 69% year-to-date performance, a descending channel has been pressuring the ETH price while offering resistance at $1,200.

*Ether/USD 4-hour price index. Source: TradingView*

Regulatory uncertainty continues to weigh down the sector. For example, Starling, a digital bank based in the United Kingdom, announced on Nov. 22 that it would no longer allow customers to send or receive money from digital asset exchanges or merchants. The bank described cryptocurrencies as “high risk and heavily used for criminal purposes.”

Other concerning news for the Ethereum ecosystem involved the decentralized finance (DeFi) platform Aave, which suffered a short-seller attack on Nov. 22 aimed to profit from under-collateralized loans.

Curiously, a similar exploit happened on the Mango Markets DeFi application in October. Albeit not a direct attack on the Ethereum network, the attacker has shown critical flaws in some major decentralized collateral lending applications.

Furthermore, the Singapore-based cryptocurrency lender Hodlnaut is reportedly facing a police probe over allegations of cheating and fraud. The issues started on Aug. 8 after the lending firm cited a liquidity crisis and suspended withdrawals on the platform.

Lastly, on Nov. 22, United States senator Elizabeth Warren correlated the demise of the FTX exchange to subprime mortgages of 2008 and penny stocks used for pump-and-dump schemes. Warren said the FTX collapse should be a “wake-up call” to regulators to enforce laws on the crypto industry.

That is why the $1.13 billion Ether monthly options expiry on Nov. 25 will put a lot of price pressure on the bulls, even though ETH posted 11% gains between Nov. 22-24.

Most of the bullish bets were placed above $1,400

Ether’s rally toward the $1,650 resistance on Nov. 5 gave the bulls the signal to expect a continuation of the uptrend. This becomes evident because only 17% of the call (buy) options for Nov. 25 have been placed below $1,400. Consequently, Ether bears are better positioned for the monthly expiry of the upcoming $1.13 billion options.

*Ether options aggregate open interest for Nov. 25. Source: CoinGlass*

A broader view using the 1.44 call-to-put ratio shows a skewed situation with bullish bets (calls) open interest at $665 million versus the $460 million put (sell) options. Nevertheless, with Ether currently hovering around $1,200, bears have a dominant position.

For instance, if the Ether price remains below $1,250 at 8:00 am UTC on Nov. 25, only $40 million worth of these call (buy) options will be available. This difference happens because there is no use in the right to buy Ether at $1,250 or $1,500 if it trades below that level on expiry.

Bears could pocket a $215 million profit

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on Nov. 25 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

Between $1,050 and $1,150: 800 calls vs. 20,200 puts. The net result favors bears by $215 million.
Between $1,150 and $1,250: 3,300 calls vs. 15,100 puts. The net result favors bearish bets by $140 million.
Between $1,250 and $1,300: 4,700 calls vs. 13,200 puts. The net result favors bears by $100 million.
Between $1,300 and $1,400: 8,700 calls vs. 8,900 puts. The net result is balanced between bulls and bears.

This crude estimate considers the call options used in bullish bets and the put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

A 7-year-old dormant Bitcoin wallet could complicate matters for Ether bulls

Ether bulls need to push the price above $1,300 on Nov. 25 to balance the scales and avoid a potential $215 million loss. However, Ether bulls seem out of luck since a Bitcoin wallet related to the 2014 Mt. Gox hack moved 10,000 BTC on Nov. 23.

Ki Young Ju, the cofounder of blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, has verified the findings, noting 0.6% of the funds were sent to exchanges and may represent sell-side liquidity.

If bears dominate the November ETH monthly options expiry, that will likely add firepower for further downside bets. Thus, at the moment, there is no indication that bulls can turn the tables and avoid the pressure from the two-week-long descending triangle.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.