ETH/BTC

Ethereum price retests key support level that preceded 60% gains in June 2022

Ether funds have witnessed inflows worth only $600,000 in the week ending April 7 compared to Bitcoin’s $56 million.

Ethereum’s Ether (ETH) token continued its losing streak versus Bitcoin (BTC) for the fifth day in a row as BTC’s price jumped above $30,000 for the first time since June 2022.

ETH/BTC bullish reversal fails midway

On April 11, the ETH/BTC pair dropped nearly 1.6% to 0.0634 BTC to retest multi-month lows.

*ETH/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

The ETH/BTC level is down 6.75% from its local peak of 0.0679 BTC set six days ago. It is also just 2% above the pair’s local low of 0.0622 BTC from March 20, showing that Ether’s bullish reversal attempt versus Bitcoin is near failure.

Interestingly, institutional interest also appears to gravitate more toward Bitcoin than Ethereum, according to CoinShares’ weekly report. It shows that the Bitcoin-focused investment funds witnessed inflows worth $56 million in the week ending April 7.

*Net flows into crypto funds in the week ending April 7. Source: CoinShares*

In comparison, the Ethereum-based funds received only $600,000 despite the hype around its long-awaited Shanghai hard fork on April 12.

Another ETH price rebound attempt ahead?

ETH/BTC’s ongoing decline has prompted it to retest its multi-month ascending trendline support (buy zone) near 0.0635 BTC for a potential price rebound toward its descending trendline resistance (sell zone) near 0.0750 BTC.

In other words, it will have been a 16.5% price rally by June, as covered in previous analysis.

*ETH/BTC three-day price chart. Source: TradingView*

The bullish reversal outlook takes cues from ETH/BTC’s price rebound in July 2022 after testing the same ascending trendline as support. Notably, the pair rose by about 60% to reach the descending trendline resistance near 0.0856 BTC.

Conversely, a decisive break below the ascending trendline support would raise ETH/BTC’s possibility to eye its 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the blue wave) near 0.0563 BTC, down about 10% from current price levels.

*ETH/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView*

Like the ascending trendline support, the 200-week EMA was instrumental in stopping Ether’s price decline versus Bitcoin in July 2022. This makes it the most probable downside target in the coming months.

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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

ETH hits 7-month high ahead of Shanghai and Capella upgrades

Ether has broken the $1,900 resistance level for the first time in months and is currently sitting above $1,911.

Ether (ETH) has breached $1,900 for the first time in over seven months, a week before staking withdrawals are enabled in the next major update for the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

CoinMarketCap data shows the last time Ether was over $1,900 was on Aug. 16, 2022, amid a broader crypto sell-off when the United States Federal Reserve was hiking the federal funds rate at a record pace to combat inflation.

The Ethereum Shanghai hard fork, set to occur on April 12, will implement Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP)-4895 — allowing validators and stakers to withdraw staked ETH from the Beacon Chain — in addition to other EIPs, aiming to help increase transaction speeds while reducing transaction costs.

Alright, let’s talk about the Ethereum Shanghai Upgrade! It’s a hard fork scheduled to occur in March 2023. Stakers and validators will be able to withdraw staked ETH from the Beacon Chain. Approximately 16 million staked ETH will be available for withdrawal.

— Branimir Stojanović (@branelost) April 4, 2023

The recent price increase could be driven by expectations that the Fed may ease up on its quantitative tightening efforts as rate increases cause cracks in the global banking industry or by increased demand for Ether, given that staking is slated to be more flexible.

While Bitcoin (BTC) has also recorded gains recently, ETH/BTC — a trading pair comparing the price of ETH to BTC — has increased by nearly 3% in the last week, according to TradingView, suggesting both factors may be contributing to Ether’s price jump.

$ETH / $BTC

Solid bounce for ETH relative to BTC the past several days

tbh though, still just expect this as nothing more than a swing play opportunity and profits should rotate back into BTC before $30K breaks and the ratio trend reverses bearish again pic.twitter.com/MOe1GlibaX

— K A L E O (@CryptoKaleo) April 5, 2023

Shanghai refers to the fork on the execution layer client side, and Capella is the upgrade name on the consensus layer client side that is set to be executed shortly after Shanghai on April 12.

The execution layer is where all the smart contracts and protocol rules are, while the consensus layer ensures that all network validators follow these rules.

It is worth noting that the price of ETH dropped sharply following the execution of the Merge on Sept. 15, 2022, where it lost just under a quarter of its value in one week, according to CoinMarketCap.

*ETH price action since August 2022. Source:* *CoinMarketCap*

Despite some analysts and traders suggesting that unlocking staked Ether will create sell pressure, what will occur following the Shanghai and Capella updates is speculation.

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The floppening? Ethereum price weakens post-Merge, risking 55% drop against Bitcoin

A classic bearish reversal pattern suggests pain ahead for the ETH/BTC pair despite Ethereum’s milestone Merge event.

Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) has been forming an inverse-cup-and-handle pattern since May 2021 on the weekly chart, which hints at a potential decline against Bitcoin (BTC).

*ETH/BTC weekly price chart featuring inverse cup-and-handle breakdown setup. Source: TradingView*

An inverse cup-and-handle is a bearish reversal pattern, accompanied by lower trading volume. It typically resolves after the price breaks below its support level, followed by a fall toward the level at a length equal to the maximum height between the cup’s peak and the support line.

Applying the theoretical definition on ETH/BTC’s weekly chart presents 0.03 BTC as its next downside target, down around 55% from Sept. 16’s price.

Can ETH/BTC pull a Dow Jones?

Alternatively, the ETH/BTC pair could nevertheless deliver some large gains in the years to come.

On the weekly log chart, the ETH/BTC pair is painting a potential cup-and-handle since January 2018. In other words, a rally toward 0.5 BTC in 2023 is on the table, up more than 520% from current price levels.

Unlike its inverse counterpart mentioned above, cup-and-handles are bullish reversal patterns with their upside targets located at levels equal to their maximum height when measured from their breakout point.

Veteran analyst Tom Bulkowski notes that these patterns have a 61% success rate of meeting their upside targets.

For instance, the cup-and-handle pattern that formed on the Dow Jones chart during the Great Depression of the 1930s and 1940s — wherein the cup took nine years to develop and the handle another four years — reached its upside target in the 1950s, as shown below.

*Dow Jones Industrial Average cup-and-handle pattern. Source: StockCharts.com*

Potentially, ETH/BTC could now be in the handle stage of a similar cup-and-handle pattern, as shown via the shaded purple descending channel area in the chart below.

*ETH/BTC weekly price chart featuring cup-and-handle breakout setup. Source: TradingView*

The pair awaits a breakout move above the pattern’s resistance level of 0.08 BTC. For now, it has been fluctuating lower inside the handle range, eyeing a pullback toward its lower trendline at around 0.05 BTC after testing the upper one as resistance this week.

Flippening or floppening?

Ethereum’s potential to overtake Bitcoin by market capitalization has been commonly dubbed as “the flippening.”

Ethereum is competing with Bitcoin to become the so-called “inflation hedge,” according to Joshua Lim, head of derivatives at Genesis Trading. Lim cited Ethereum’s EIP-1559 update from August 2021 that introduced a fee-burning mechanism into its protocol.

According to Ultrasound.Money, Ether’s supply growth now stands at minus 1.43% per year. In other words, the token could be becoming “disinflationary” with time. Lim argues that it makes Ether an attractive alternative to Bitcoin among institutional investors.

12/ can BTC remain king going fwd? only time will tell if the ETH narrative post-Merge is strong enough to overthrow the status quo

in the meantime, expect BTC to continue to trade like a funding asset and preferred hedging instrument for the entire asset class

— Joshua Lim (@joshua_j_lim) August 29, 2022

But many argue against the flippening narrative, including Rahul Singh, the co-founder of Defi platform FINtokens. He told Cointelegraph Bitcoin would continue existing as a “digital gold” while Ethereum would become an “Internet 2.0” project.

Never Ever…
B’coz#Bitcoin in Digital Gold
&#Ethereum is Internet 2.0

So,
There’s a lot of difference between Digital Asset Values, &
Digital Soft. Values

— AskToRahulSingh©️ (@AskToRahulSingh) July 13, 2022

As of September 2022, Ether’s market cap is $175 billion compared to Bitcoin’s $372 billion.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Will Ethereum keep rallying versus Bitcoin? ETH price technicals hint at 60% gains ahead

Ether could enter the pattern’s breakout stage in the days leading up to the highly-anticipated Merge.

Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) shows the potential to log major gains versus Bitcoin (BTC) with the ETH/BTC pair nearing yearly highs.

Ether paints classic bullish reversal pattern

The bullish cues come from a classic technical pattern called the inverse head and shoulders, which develops when the price forms three troughs below a common support level known as neckline. The middle trough, or head, is deeper than the other two, called the shoulders.

An inverse head and shoulders setup resolves after the price breaks above the neckline while accompanying an increase in trading volume. As a rule of technical analysis, its profit target comes at a length equal to the maximum distance between the head’s lowest point and the neckline.

So far, Ether has painted a similar pattern, and it now awaits breakout above the neckline, as illustrated in the chart below.

*ETH/BTC weekly price chart featuring “inverse head and shoulders” breakout setup. Source: TradingView*

If ETH’s price climbs decisively above the neckline, then the Ethereum token’s upside target in 2022 will be around 0.136 BTC, up approximately 60% from current price levels.

Merge enthusiasm boosts ETH/BTC pair

The breakout moment could come ahead of Ethereum’s switch from proof-of-work (PoW) to proof-of-stake (PoS).

While the Merge is touted by proponents as a less energy-intensive alternative to PoW, the update could also reduce Ether’s annual issuance by 4.2%.

Moreover, the demand for ETH as the means to receive any potential forked tokens following the Merge has seen the ETH/BTC pair rise by more than 55% since the Merge’s release announcement on July 14.

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, believes Ether’s switch to a less energy-intensive protocol could boost its appeal among institutional investors. In turn, it could ensure Ether overtakes Bitcoin by market capitalization.

“It’s entirely possible that we’ll see Ethereum flipping Bitcoin at some point in the future,” Hougan told Forbes, adding:

“It is going after, in my view, a larger addressable market.”

For now, Ethereum’s $200 billion market cap trails Bitcoin’s $369 billion.

Sell the Merge news?

On the flip side, Ether has been trading near a resistance area with a long history of exhausting price rallies against Bitcoin, notes analyst Riteable. In addition, the ETH/BTC’s ongoing uptrend accompanies declining volumes and relative strength index (RSI) readings.

In other words, a bearish divergence that could mean ETH/BTC’s price rally could be nearing exhaustion, resulting in a correction post-Merge.

Ethereum to $2K? ETH price ‘bull flag’ hints at September gains versus Bitcoin, dollar

Ether is forming classic bullish patterns against the greenback and its top crypto rival on shorter-timeframe charts.

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), looks ready to grow stronger compared to the U.S. dollar and Bitcoin (BTC) in the days leading up to its proof-of-stake transition in September.

ETH price chart bullish setup

The bullish outlook emerges from classic technical indicators on ETH/USD and ETH/BTC charts. For instance, ETH/USD has been forming a “falling wedge” pattern with a profit target sitting around 30% above the current prices.

Meanwhile, the ETH/BTC chart is painting a potential “bull flag ” that could increase the price by approximately 10% from current price levels upon resolution.

Here’s how these bullish setups could play out.

Ethereum to $2K next?

Falling wedges form when the price trends lower inside a descending, contracting channel.

*Falling wedge illustration. Source: New Trader U*

They typically resolve after the price breaks above their upper trendlines. Their breakout target is as high as the maximum distance between their upper and lower trendlines when measured from the breakout point

ETH’s price has been decreasing since mid-August in a falling wedge pattern. It recently rebounded after testing the structure’s lower trendline to hit the upper trendline and now eyes a breakout toward or above $2,000, as shown below.

*ETH/USD daily price chart featuring falling wedge breakout setup. Source: TradingView*

The wedge’s profit target coincides with Ethereum’s 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA; the blue wave) at $2,055.

Moreover, the target appears to be a junction as ETH eyes an extended bull run toward $2,500. This level is the upside target of a broader ascending channel (the purple range) that has been forming since June.

In other words, ETH’s price could grow anywhere by 30%–55% in September.

ETH/BTC bull flag setup

Bull flags surface when the price consolidates lower inside a descending, parallel channel after a strong upward move.

*Bull flag illustration. Source: ThinkMarkets*

The pattern resolves after the price breaks above its upper trendline, followed by an extended upside move toward the level at a length equal to the size of the previous uptrend, also called flagpole. As a result, analysts call bull flags “bullish continuation” patterns.

Ether has been forming a bull flag against Bitcoin since early August, awaiting breakout as it tests the structure’s upper trendline for one. Suppose it happens, then the price could rise toward 0.087 BTC, up approximately 10% from August 3’s price.

*ETH/BTC daily price chart featuring bull flag breakout setup. Source: TradingView*

Alternatively, ETH/BTC could flip lower to retest the flag’s lower trendline. This trendline appears to be coinciding with a support confluence consisting of a 50-day EMA (the red wave) and the 0.618 Fib line at 0.0729 BTC.

The pullback will not invalidate the bull flag breakout setup unless the price breaks below the lower trendline. But if it does, ETH/BTC risks falling toward $0.088 BTC, a level synchronous with the 0.5 Fib line and the 200-day EMA (the blue wave).

Ethereum price rises by 50% against Bitcoin in one month — but there’s a catch

The rise in the ETH/BTC pair is painting a bearish technical pattern, hinting at a potential correction.

Ether (ETH), Ethereum’s native token, has been continuing its uptrend against Bitcoin (BTC) as euphoria around its upcoming network upgrade, “the Merge,” grows.

ETH at multi-month highs against BTC

On the daily chart, ETH/BTC surged to an intraday high of 0.075 on Aug. 6, following a 1.5% upside move. Meanwhile, the pair’s gains came as a part of a broader rebound trend that started a month ago at 0.049, amounting to approximately 50% gains.

The ETH/BTC recovery in part has surfaced due to the Merge, which will have Ethereum switch from proof-of-work (PoW) mining to proof-of-stake (PoS).

Ethereum’s “rising wedge” suggests sell-off

From a technical perspective, Ether stares at potential interim losses as ETH/BTC paints a convincing rising wedge.

Rising wedges are bearish reversal patterns that occur when the price trends higher inside a range defined by two rising, converging trendlines. As a rule, they resolve after the price breaks below the lower trendline by as much as the structure’s maximum height.

*ETH/BTC daily price chart featuring “rising wedge” breakdown setup. Source: TradingView*

Moreover, a declining volume and relative strength index (RSI) against a rising ETH/BTC further increases bearish divergence risks. This gives weight to the wedge’s bearish setup for a target of 0.064 BTC, or down 11% from today’s price.

Ether looks stronger vs. dollar

Meanwhile, technicals paint a brighter picture for Ethereum against the U.S. dollar. The potential of a 10% breakout for ETH/USD looks strong in August due to a classic bullish reversal pattern.

On a four-hour chart, ETH/USD has formed what appears to be a “double bottom.” This pattern resembles the letter “W” due to two consecutive lows followed by a change in direction from downtrend to uptrend, as illustrated below.

*ETH/USD four-hour price chart featuring “double bottom” breakout setup. Source: TradingView*

Meanwhile, a double bottom pattern resolves after the price breaks above its common resistance level and—as a rule of technical analysis—rises by as much as the distance between the first bottom and the resistance.

As a result, ETH could rally toward $1,940 in August, up 10% from today’s price.

Ethereum price ‘cup and handle’ pattern hints at potential breakout versus Bitcoin

Ether has printed a classic bullish reversal pattern against Bitcoin weeks before the Merge launch date.

Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) has rebounded 40% against Bitcoin (BTC) after bottoming out locally at 0.049 on June 13. Now, the ETH/BTC pair is at two-month highs and can extend its rally in the coming weeks, according to a classic technical pattern.

ETH paints cup and handle pattern

Specifically, ETH/BTC has been forming a “cup and handle” on its lower-timeframe charts since July 18.

A cup and handle setup typically appears when the price falls and then rebounds in what appears to be a U-shaped recovery, which looks like a “cup.” Meanwhile, the recovery leads to a pullback move, wherein the price trends lower inside a descending channel called the “handle.”

The pattern resolves after the price rallies to an approximately equal size to the prior decline. The ETH/BTC chart below illustrates a similar bullish technical setup.

*ETH/BTC four-hour price chart. Source: TradingView*

Notably, the pair now trades lower inside the handle range but could pursue a recovery toward the neckline resistance near 0.071 BTC. Afterward, a decisive cup and handle breakout above the neckline level could lead ETH/BTC to 0.072, up 12.75% from today’s price.

The success rate of the cup and handle pattern in reaching its profit target is 61%, according to veteran investor Tom Bulkowski.

The Merge factor

The bullish setup for ETH/BTC also takes cues from Ethereum’s network transition from proof-of-work (PoW) to proof-of-stake (PoS) potentially via “the Merge” slated for mid September.

Meanwhile, market analyst Michaël van de Poppe says that Ether could see more upside versus Bitcoin due to the Merge hype as momentum builds in the coming weeks.

Basically a few levels on $ETH.

Facing resistance at 0.0725 $BTC.

Facing support at either 0.0645 $BTC or 0.057 $BTC.

Overall, expecting more momentum going towards the merge in September. pic.twitter.com/QpmkyTwjyb

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) July 23, 2022

Van de Poppe anticipates ETH/BTC to test 0.072, the cup-and-handle profit target, as interim resistance while holding either 0.0645 or 0.057 level as support.

*ETH/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView/Michaël van de Poppe*

Conversely, the range of risks for Ethereum with the Merge update include potential technical issues, delays or even a contentious hard fork. For instance, a bug had split the Ethereum chain during a 2020 network upgrade.

Ethereum price ‘cup and handle’ pattern hints at potential breakout versus Bitcoin

Ether has printed a classic bullish reversal pattern against Bitcoin weeks before the Merge launch date.

ETH paints cup and handle pattern

Specifically, ETH/BTC has been forming a cup and handle on its lower-timeframe charts since July 18.

A cup and handle setup typically appears when the price falls and then rebounds in what appears to be a U-shaped recovery, which looks like a cup. Meanwhile, the recovery leads to a pullback move, wherein the price trends lower inside a descending channel called the handle.

The pattern resolves after the price rallies to an approximately equal size to the prior decline. The ETH/BTC chart below illustrates a similar bullish technical setup.

The success rate of the cup and handle pattern in reaching its profit target is 61%, according to veteran investor Tom Bulkowski.

The Merge factor

The bullish setup for ETH/BTC also takes cues from Ethereum’s network transition from proof-of-work (PoW) to proof-of-stake (PoS) potentially via the Merge slated for mid-September.

Meanwhile, market analyst Michaël van de Poppe says that Ether could see more upside versus Bitcoin due to the Merge hype as momentum builds in the coming weeks.

Basically a few levels on $ETH.

Facing resistance at 0.0725 $BTC.

Facing support at either 0.0645 $BTC or 0.057 $BTC.

Overall, expecting more momentum going towards the merge in September. pic.twitter.com/QpmkyTwjyb

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) July 23, 2022

Van de Poppe anticipates ETH/BTC to test 0.072, the cup-and-handle profit target, as interim resistance while holding either 0.0645 or 0.057 level as support.

Conversely, the range of risks for Ethereum with the Merge update includes potential technical issues , delays or even a contentious hard fork. For instance, a bug had split the Ethereum chain during a 2020 network upgrade.

Ethereum price breaks out, hits 2-month high versus Bitcoin — Is the rally sustainable?

The rally has pushed ETH price toward strong resistance levels, increasing its pullback risks against Bitcoin.

Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) has successfully avoided a bearish technical setup to reach a two-month high against Bitcoin (BTC).

ETH price bear flag invalidated

The ETH/BTC pair invalidated its prevailing “bear flag” pattern after Ethereum developers announced this July 14 that their long-awaited switch to proof-of-stake (called the Merge ) will most likely occur in September.

ETH/BTC has rallied by more than 22% since the announcement, reaching 0.067, its highest level since May 25. Furthermore, the pair’s sharp upside move has pushed its net retracement gains to 37% when measured from June 13’s local bottom of 0.049.

Ether tests key inflection zone

Strong fundamentals led by the Merge launch could have ETH/BTC pursue a run-up toward the 0.072–0.076 area. This range was instrumental as resistance in January and March–May. Therefore, it should serve as the next upside target for Ether bulls.

But there’s a catch. Notably, ETH/BTC has been showing signs of a weakening upside momentum near what appears to be a strong resistance confluence.

That includes a falling trendline resistance, a Fibonacci retracement line (near 0.066 BTC), and a support-turned-resistance area (the 0.064-0.068 BTC range), as shown below.

In addition, ETH/BTC’s daily relative strength index, a momentum oscillator indicator, has crossed into so-called “overbought” territory, suggesting elevated risks of a sell-off.

Independent market analyst “Altcoin Sherpa” cited a similar technical setup this July 18, noting that the ongoing ETH/BTC rally could be “unsustainable.”

$ETHBTC: This is a weird chart; super strong in the short term but I'm guessing this rally will be unsustainable. Really conflicting thoughts for this being 'the bottom'; lots of FA factors coming in w. merge. Maybe .075 is next up if this area gets cleared. $ETH #Ethereum pic.twitter.com/UyjsidVuP4

— Altcoin Sherpa (@AltcoinSherpa) July 18, 2022

In other words, ETH/BTC could see a reversal toward 0.06 by September if the inflection resistance zone holds for a 9.5% decline. The 0.06 BTC level also coincides with the 0.236 Fib line, as shown in the chart above.