Economics

5 tips for riding out a downbeat market this holiday season

The market doesn’t look like it’s going to spike upward anytime soon. While you wait, grow your network and position your portfolio to take advantage of a future recovery.

These forecasts are driven by deteriorating structural fundamentals. For example, credit card debt has surged past even 2020 levels, with interest rates charged by banks that are just slightly higher than those observed leading up to the post-2000 dot-com crash. And yet, labor force participation rates — or the proportion of the population that is able to work and is working — have still not recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Furthermore, inflation — as measured by the consumer price index — has surged over the past few years.

Economic forecasts suggest that we are in for greater economic turbulence. The United States has been in a recession and that recession is expected to continue, with the Conference Board forecasting a further decline in gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.5% in Q4 of this year. It also anticipates that the recession will continue into at least Q2 of 2023. That was before the collapse of crypto trading platform FTX, which had profound downstream effects on investment portfolios and non-crypto companies. Other more optimistic forecasts, such as those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and S&P Global, are just barely positive for 2023 at 0.7% and 0.2%, respectively.

Consumer Debt & Interest Rates in the United States, 1995-2020. Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve
Labor Force Participation in the United States, 1950-2020. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Consumer Price Index, 2011-2022. Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve

These macroeconomic indicators are common outside of the U.S. too. Many – even the International Monetary Fund — have pointed out the increase in inflation as a result of higher energy prices in Europe, which is one factor, among others, that contributes to the European Union’s recent forecast of nearly zero GDP growth for all of 2023. That is on top of its already long-run demographic challenge that there are too many people aging out of the labor force and not enough new entrants, which has dire implications for GDP growth.

Related: The market isn’t surging anytime soon — So get used to dark times

While these macroeconomic fundamentals are outside your control, there is still a lot within your control. We need to remember that we have substantial agency over our lives and do not need to get dragged into an economic tailspin just because that’s what might be happening to the aggregate economy — we can still individually thrive during a famine.

Here are five tips for doing just that.

Optimize the wait. Make the best use of your time every day, which might mean picking up a new skill or taking up a freelance job that deploys your broader skill set. Especially with the emergence of artificial intelligence and automation, certain tasks are becoming obsolete and other new creative opportunities are emerging — and you can leverage that trend by acquiring the skills to perform these tasks. There are substantial mismatches in the demand and supply in certain parts of the labor market, such as artificial intelligence and cybersecurity jobs, so consider picking up a new skill that you can put to work.

Reflect and take inventory. It is far too easy to look at the circumstances we personally or as a society are in and get worried, but take stock of what is going right and what you’re thankful for. The holidays are an especially good opportunity to do so. By putting your circumstances in perspective, you avoid a lot of mental rabbit holes that could cause you to become more anxious and disappointed, which unfortunately only further amplifies challenging circumstances. Even when circumstances look bleak, remember what you have and what you have been through — it will inspire you to go on.

Grow your network. Building relationships is part of the adventure we are on. Focus on people as actual human beings, rather than potential doors of opportunity. People are indeed doors, but treating people in transactional ways warps your perspective of life and ends up closing those doors, because people do not like being treated as vending machines. (Would you like it if people only talked to you based on what you could give to them?)

Related: 5 reasons 2023 will be a tough year for global markets

Cherish small wins. We often focus on the big and flashy goals or aspirations, but overlook what is immediately in front of us. We have a lot more agency than we give ourselves credit for! Whether you are taking care of your property or writing an excellent report at work, demonstrating excellence in everything that you do creates a lot more optionality in the long run that yields truly fulfilling and fruitful employment opportunities.

Always carve out some proportion of your earnings for savings. Consider investing it in structurally sound digital assets. There is no substitute for setting aside resources every month, whether crypto or fiat, that you can draw on when you’re most in need. There will always be an element of unpredictability in the world, so view these savings as your insurance policy on market downturns. Even though crypto has been in a winter, all assets have been struggling because the entire market is in a downturn. But the future of the major tokens, such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), remains hopeful, and it’s just a matter of time before they rebound. Moreover, as governments become more volatile and inflation continues to grow, crypto can be a useful hedge and diversification strategy.

Don’t despair even when the economy is faltering. You and your household can still thrive!

Christos A. Makridis is a research affiliate at Stanford University and Columbia Business School and the chief technology officer and co-founder of Living Opera, a multimedia art-tech Web3 startup. He holds doctoral degrees in economics and management science and engineering from Stanford University.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Crypto users renew calls for Satoshi Nakamoto to win Nobel Memorial Prize for economics

Major figures in the crypto space argued the Bitcoin creator was the most deserving candidate for the economic award, despite the fact Satoshi’s true identity remains unknown.

Bitcoin (BTC) enthusiasts on social media platforms have reiterated their annual petition to have the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences awarded to Satoshi Nakamoto.

On Oct. 10, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences announced three recipients of the economic prize — former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke, and U.S. economists Douglas Diamond and Philip Dybvig — for “research on banks and financial crises.” Many crypto enthusiasts have argued for years that Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, was the most deserving candidate for the economic award, first instituted in 1968, “according to the same principles as for the Nobel Prizes that have been awarded since 1901,” according to a description from the institution.

“In 2008: Bernanke printed money to bail out banks who proliferated a subprime debt bubble that caused a global financial crisis,” said crypto artist Lucho Polleti on Twitter. “Satoshi created #Bitcoin, a money system that gives all humans economic freedom through the separation of money & state. Satoshi deserves a Nobel Prize.”

Some people, including crypto podcaster and Morgan Creek Digital co-founder Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano, have previously said Satoshi was entitled to more than just an economics prize. Pomp tweeted in 2019 that the BTC creator deserved the Nobel Peace Prize for establishing “a currency that can assume global reserve status without anyone having to engage in violence.”

Others like former Blockstream chief strategy officer Samson Mow have argued neither award applies as they’re emblematic of an outdated system:

It’s unclear if Nakamoto would be eligible to receive either prize, given their identity has never been publicly revealed. It could make more sense to honor other known early contributors to the ecosystem, such as former BTC core developer Gavin Andresen, or developer and recipient of the first Bitcoin transaction, Hal Finney. However, Finney passed in 2014 and a Nobel Prize “cannot be awarded posthumously” according to the statutes of the Nobel Foundation.

Related: ‘How I met Satoshi’: The mission to teach 100M people about Bitcoin by 2030

Though not the winner of the economics prize this year, Nakamoto has been publicly honored by many crypto users in a variety of ways. In September 2021, a crypto group set up a bronze statue of the legendary Bitcoin creator at a park in Budapest. Nakamoto continues to be the subject of crypto-related art, memes, online discussions, and speculation as to their identity — as an individual or group.

Economists debunk the banking system and win the Nobel Prize

Three economists were awarded the Nobel Prize in economic sciences for their decades of research on societal reactions to financial crises and avoiding bank collapses.

Three economists were awarded the Nobel Prize in economic sciences on Oct. 10 for their discoveries which are said to have improved “how society deals with financial crises.”

Ben Bernanke, Douglas Diamond and Philip Dybvig conducted research on the economic role played by banks during times of financial crisis. According to the Nobel Prize Organization, this research included an important finding on why it is not only important but “vital” to avoid the collapse of banks.

Tore Ellingsen, the chair of the committee for the prize in economic sciences, said:

“The laureates’ insights have improved our ability to avoid both serious crises and expensive bailouts.”

Diamond highlights the important role banks play in society as a middleman between savers and borrowers. Banks can provide depositors open access to their funds while giving the option of long-term loans to borrowers.

Along with stressing the vital socio-economic role banks play, the research also points to the vulnerabilities of banks, which spur rumors of their “imminent collapse” in the instance of a run on banks.

As crypto and the Web3 world become more mainstream, banks have new things to consider as societal challenges and adaptations.

Users are now interested in decentralized finance (DeFi) for the very reason of taking out a middleman between them and their liquid assets. DeFi, in the noncustodial sense, gives users unfettered access to financial tools they need and is increasingly used as a tool to help the unbanked.

However, as a Bloomberg analyst reported, many who have been used to the security found in traditional finance have a “fear of the unknown” when it comes to activity in DeFi and crypto.

Related: Institutional crypto custody: How banks are housing digital assets

Banks and major TradFi corporations have taken hints from the increasingly relevant and useful role of cryptocurrencies. According to data from the Basel Committee, banks worldwide own 9.4 billion euros in crypto assets.

The Central Bank of Switzerland also claims central banks will be a major proponent to further push DeFi into the mainstream through the right combination of centralization and decentralization.

Banks around the world are trying to stay relevant with the shift toward digital currencies and the general digitization of money. Many are looking into developing their own central bank digital currencies (CBDC).

Most recently, the central bank of India released its outline for plans of a digital rupee CBDC.

Global think tank suggests blockchain in public finance can help reduce fraud

Modernizing public finance management through blockchain could help governments identify potential corruption and waste by providing additional transparency and traceability.

The Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, or OMFIF, an independent global think tank for central banking and economic policy, has released a report suggesting that blockchain technology in a public finance management system could provide information essential to “formulate and design fiscal policy.”

According to a Tuesday report, the OMFIF said modernizing public finance management through blockchain could help governments identify potential corruption and waste by providing “enhanced transparency and traceability of payments.” The report suggested the technology could facilitate the prevention of embezzlement of funds given the global rise in fraud from cases including ransomware and cybersecurity attacks.

In addition to helping reduce the risk of theft from invoice fraud — allowing users to send payments with “the click of a button” rather than providing personal information — the think tank reported that with the system set up for a central bank digital currency, “the government’s financial position” could be made clear. A system updated using blockchain could provide transparency for government spending.

“While a digital currency would mesh well with this kind of system, it is certainly not a necessity,” said the report. “Many of the benefits can be achieved without changing payments rails, simply by improving the [public finance management] architecture. Governments would also be more effective at efficiently managing their cash and forecasting their future cash position.”

Ernst & Young Global commented within the report:

“Blockchain for public finance can reduce the administrative effort associated with financial reconciliations, tracking and reporting. Business terms or eligibility and compliance rules can be embedded into the system to automate transaction controls via smart contracts. Automated tracking and reporting can significantly reduce the cost for partners of interacting with government.”

Related: UNCTAD takes aim at crypto in developing world in a series of critical policy briefs

Founded in 2010, the OMFIF has released many reports on blockchain and digital assets. In 2020, the think tank launched the Digital Monetary Institute, aimed at bridging digital currencies with traditional financial institutions and a CBDC’s potential use in payments among wholesale and retail markets