DXY

Bitcoin addresses in loss hit 1-month high as BTC price retests $21K

There are now more than 17.5 million Bitcoin wallets underwater with little faith in a rebound coming from analysts in the face of a surging dollar.

Bitcoin (BTC) hodlers are feeling the squeeze this week as repeated tests of lower levels spark increasing losses.

Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows more wallets are in the red as of Aug. 23 than at any time in the past month.

Over 17.5 million wallets in the red

BTC/USD has seen five trips below $21,000 since the end of Aug. 19, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows, and the quest for support is already making plenty of traders nervous.

*BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView*

Meanwhile, those who bought in recent weeks are underwater to varying degrees, as Bitcoin is at its lowest since the last week of July.

The extent to which investors added or created positions on the way to this month’s $25,200 highs is now becoming clearer — more BTC addresses are at an overall loss than at any time since July 23.

The increase in underwater addresses has been particularly pronounced since last week’s sudden price drop. At the time of writing, the seven-day moving average (MA) of wallets in the red sits at more than 17.5 million — an increase of 1.5 million over several days.

*Bitcoin addresses in loss chart (7-day MA). Source: Glassnode/ Twitter*

Additional statistics from monitoring resource Coinglass covering liquidations of positions on derivatives exchanges, meanwhile, point to the vast majority of pain being inflicted on Aug. 1, with subsequent price movements across the $21,000 mark being of little importance.

Aug. 19 sealed a total of $209.5 million in long position liquidations on exchanges — the most since June 13 — along with $30 million of short positions.

*BTC/USD liquidations chart. Source: Coinglass*

Dollar rises to pressure outlook

Turning to the immediate outlook, few were prepared to bet on a major renaissance in crypto markets.

Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital highlighted Bitcoin’s first close below the key 200-week MA since July, and others noted risk assets faced resistance while the United States dollar broke higher.

#SPX500 lost the 50-Week Moving Average last week, and on the first day of this week has lost the 100-Week Moving Average and the micro trend line.

What do you think comes next?

Trend Precognition has some clues highlighted in red. pic.twitter.com/W7wUkt4UBY

— Keith Alan (@KAProductions) August 22, 2022

The U.S. dollar index (DXY), with which Bitcoin has shown inverse correlation to varying degrees in recent years, hit its highest since July 14, passing 109 and up 4.4% from its August lows.

*U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView*

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin holds 5-week high as trader suggests ‘parabolic’ bear trend is over

A crypto renaissance sees Bitcoin price challenge major resistance and long-term trendlines in a much-needed show of strength.

Bitcoin (BTC) took aim at $24,000 on July 20 after a night of solid gains put bulls in the driving seat.

Parabolas violated

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it breached $23,800, its highest level since June 13.

Against expectations, crypto staged a recovery beyond an intra-hour “fake-out” as risk assets benefitted from declining United States dollar strength.

The inverse correlation between the U.S. dollar index (DXY) and Bitcoin remained center stage on the day, with the greenback coming off twenty-year highs at the end of the week prior.

*U.S. dollar index (DXY) vs. BTC/USD 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView*

“The Dollar is taking a nice hit today from the bears,” popular trader Crypto Tony told Twitter followers as the breakout took shape:

“Good sign for Bitcoin as things cool off for the DXY.”

$DXY has broken the Parabolic Trend (Parabola) that has been formed since Jan 7, 2021.

It’s time to pay attention. pic.twitter.com/xg344NrOCw

— wolf (@ImNotTheWolf) July 19, 2022

Fellow analyst Wolf, meanwhile, eyed the breakdown of a “parabolic trend” in place on DXY throughout 2022. At the same time, as per analysis from popular trader Jibon, BTC/USD had ended its parabolic run to macro lows.

#Bitcoin Parabolic Run is Over As Expected pic.twitter.com/1uuu0AfKKD

— Trader_J (@Trader_Jibon) July 20, 2022

Those “expectations” referred to a strategy forecasting BTC/USD rising to $40,000 before another bearish phase puts in a fresh macro bottom.

Major trendlines see a sudden test

Returning to current price action, meanwhile, significance came in the form of crucial trendlines being broken.

Among them were the 200-week moving average (WMA) at $22,800 and Bitcoin’s realized price at $21,934 as of July 19, data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode confirmed.

*Bitcoin realized price chart. Source: Glassnode*

Both are classic fixtures in Bitcoin bear markets, with BTC/USD usually wicking below while preserving the levels as basic support.

Attention thus focused on the weekly close, which would confirm a breakout from the 200 WMA.

$BTC 1D

Hard to believe but #bitcoin has broken the 50 DMA, 200 WMA (confirms week close), major upward resistance, & Bear Flag all in the same day.

Shorting a breakout isn’t the best idea. I TP’d a bit early on longs but will reenter on a retest of support.#cryptocurrency pic.twitter.com/BDwf0f67GK

— Roman (@Roman_Trading) July 19, 2022

Bitcoin lurks by $22K as US dollar falls from peak, Ethereum gains 20%

It’s all about Ethereum for crypto traders on the day as Bitcoin faces crucial resistance and a slew of sellers lying in wait.

Bitcoin (BTC) hugged $22,000 on July 19 as macro conditions slowly turned to favor risk assets.

Stocks, crypto rise as dollar weakens

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD cooling volatility immediately below the crucial 200-week moving average (WMA).

The Wall Street open saw further gains for United States equities in the face of a declining U.S. dollar, which extended its retracement after hitting its latest two-decade peak.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) stood at around 106.5 at the time of writing, down 2.6% from the high seen July 14.

For Bitcoin analysts, it was thus a case of wait and see as markets bided their time between buy and sell levels.

$BTC / $USD – Update

These are the options on #Bitcoin right .. If we can sustain above the $21,700 range high and gain momentum, we can pump for the wave 3 ..

However, if we die down i am looking for another corrective wave down .. pic.twitter.com/cLGVGdTivK

— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) July 19, 2022

“Shared this chart before, but just like that the $DXY is tanking, resulting into risk-on assets showing some momentum,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe tweeted in an update on the day alongside a DXY chart.

“Yields need to drop now too, but the weakness on the Dollar could put more strength on crypto and Bitcoin.”

*U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingView*

On-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators, meanwhile, flagged the difference in strength between “psychological” levels such as $21,000 and $22,000 and the 200 WMA closer to $23,000.

“IMO, resistance at $21k and $22k are psychological, whereas the 200 WMA serves as legit technical resistance. FireCharts shows more BTC bid liquidity coming in to support an R/S flip at $21k,” it told Twitter followers on the day publishing data from the Binance order book.

“Looking for more bid liquidity to challenge the ever important 200 WMA.”

*BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/ Twitter*

The day belongs to Ethereum

Deja vu for altcoin traders, meanwhile, came in the form of outperformance from Ether (ETH) versus other major cryptocurrencies’ intraday gains.

ETH/USD, already up 25% in a week, added to its momentum overnight, climbing another 20% in just over 24 hours to briefly pass $1,600.

Resistance in the form of the 2018 high at $1,530 posed little problem for bulls, with the level forming a support focus at the time of writing.

“Ethereum relative to Bitcoin has closed above a key resistance,” popular trading account Game of Traders forecast.

“Buckle up for some big moves.”

*ETH/USD 1-day candle chart (Binance). Source: TradingView*

Bitcoin fights key trendline near $20K as US dollar index hits new 20-year high

Nothing can keep the U.S. dollar index (DXY) down this year, and concerns over its impact on assets beyond crypto are spreading.

Bitcoin (BTC) found a new focus at just under $20,000 on July 14 as United States dollar strength hammered out yet another two-decade high.

DXY moves bring yen, euro into focus

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD rebounding from lows sparked by a fresh 40-year high for U.S. inflation as per the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

After briefly dipping under $19,000, the pair took a flight above $20,000 before consolidating immediately below that psychologically significant level.

For on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators, it was now “do or die” for BTC price action when it came to a key rising trendline in place since mid-June.

On the day, that trendline stood at around $19,600, with BTC/USD now preserving it as support.

Gut check time for #Bitcoin bulls fighting for the trend line. #FireCharts pic.twitter.com/AUJmKXClU9

— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) July 13, 2022

Significant gains meanwhile looked less likely for crypto markets thanks to the day once more being ruled by the U.S. dollar.

After tanking following the CPI print, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) returned with a vengeance to post its highest levels since 2002 — a phenomenon that had characterized much of the year.

The new peak measured 108.64, an increase of over 1% versus the 24-hour lows.

Beyond the short-term negative impact for Bitcoin and risk assets, USD strength was also bad news for other major world currencies, with the Japanese yen particularly in focus for BTC commentators.

“Yen getting battered again today. Bank of Japan frozen in place, waiting for Fed reversal. Until then, they will continue to destroy their currency because they have no other option” popular Twitter account Stack Hodler argued on the day:

“BoJ + Yen is a glimpse into the future for ECB + Euro. Are you seeing why Bitcoin matters yet?”

As Cointelegraph reported, some believe that the Fed will likewise have no choice but to halt inflation-busting interest rate hikes toward the end of 2022.

“In response to today’s CPI print which showed broad-based and accelerating inflation, short-term FF futures moved upward implying peak FF of 3.68% by 12/22 with the @federalreserve immediately thereafter cutting rates to reach 2.9% by 1/24,” investor and hedge fund manager Bill Ackman wrote in part of a Twitter thread in reaction to the CPI data:

“Implicitly the market expects a more aggressive Fed will push us into recession by year end and then cut rates in response.”

Little belief in an altcoin rebirth

Turning to altcoins, flat progress over the past 24 hours was no reason to assume prices could not drop more, one analyst warned.

In fresh updates on the day, Il Capo of Crypto predicted bearish moves for at least two tokens in the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap.

Ether (ETH), for example, was threatening a return to a three-figure price tag.

$ETH

Testing previous ATH as resistance and forming a corrective move. Bearish.

Clean break below $1k = $600-700 pic.twitter.com/5qRscCVQ5G

— il Capo Of Crypto (@CryptoCapo_) July 14, 2022

Cardano (ADA) faced an even worse situation after fall through support, which had been tested six times in as many weeks.

“Support broken and now tested as resistance. Very bearish,” he commented.

Data from research firm Santiment nonetheless shed light on the potential for a possible rebound of an altcoin, which had “dropped harder than most” this year.

#Cardano‘s price is down 69% in 2022, and this has caused social sentiment toward the #8 market cap asset to drop harder than most. The last time the crowd was this negative in Jan, $ADA rebounded +24% in 5 days until sentiment turned positive again. https://t.co/4BLpLNDraG pic.twitter.com/mJgnhtpB1V

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) July 13, 2022

Bitcoin price builds best weekly candle since March despite new DXY peak

The U.S. dollar is breaking out yet again, adding to misgivings about the authenticity of Bitcoin’s surge to $22,400.

Bitcoin (BTC) is on track for its biggest weekly gains since March, but not everyone is convinced that good times will last.

Crypto sentiment highest since early May

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that at the time of writing, BTC/USD is up over $2,000 this week — nearly 12%.

After spending several days trapped in a narrow range , the pair managed to exit to the upside, the gains accelerating overnight into July 8 to see highs of $22,401 on Bitstamp.

#bitcoin nicely bounced back to 200WMA and Realized Price levels (both at ~$22K). Let’s see if it holds. Btw BTC $24.8K would flip RSI back at 45. pic.twitter.com/62yU8wJtuP

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) July 8, 2022

Those highs alone are noteworthy, coinciding with Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average (MA), an essential level in bear markets that has acted as resistance since last month.

While consolidating around $1,000 lower, Bitcoin nonetheless is showing the potential for a trend turnaround. Beating out the 200-week MA, however, will be no easy task.

“Well, Bitcoin, $22.3K was reached and all the highs have been taken for now,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe summarized in a Twitter update.

“Some consolidation and build-up is required (might retest $20.7Kish) before markets are ready to break above 200-Week MA, which will be a heavy one.”

*BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp) with 200-week MA. Source: TradingView*

Van de Poppe previously suggested that there is “probably an insane amount of liquidity above the 200-Week MA,” and that breaking through could see a run as high as $30,000.

“And then the sentiment will flip too,” he added.

Signs of change in the overall market mood were already visible on the day, however, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index hitting its highest levels since May 7. At 20/100, the Index remains in its “extreme fear” zone.

*Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me*

Another day, another two-decade DXY high

The latest price action is meanwhile not without its naysayers, some of whom expect deeper macro lows to enter before any significant recovery.

“Lot of people expecting 22k–23k. It’s the new 52k when price was at 47k–48k or the new 35k when price was at 31k–32k. 16k comes first imo,” popular trader Il Capo of Crypto argued on July 7.

Later, he noted that Bitcoin was increasing despite renewed strength in the U.S. dollar index (DXY), and that “spoofing” on major exchanges was adding to the chances of the latest move being a fakeout.

“DXY going parabolic. Bitcoin going up a bit and people getting euphoric and calling for 40k. Not a single bullish sign to support this move up and price is still at 21k–22k (resistance),” he warned Twitter followers.

“Rejection will be strong. Altcoins could drop 45%–50%. There will be no mercy.”

DXY stood at 107.3 at the time of writing, marking new twenty-year highs. U.S. dollar strength is traditionally inversely correlated with crypto-asset performance.

*U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-month candle chart. Source: TradingView*

Bitcoin price approaches potential springboard to $23K as DXY cools surge

With support and resistance inches from its spot price, BTC/USD has increasingly little room to consolidate.

Bitcoin (BTC) approached the July 6 Wall Street open near $20,000 as a fresh battle between support and resistance loomed.

Whale levels close by

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD wedged in a tight trading range with liquidity creeping closer to spot on the day.

After recovering 6% losses from the day before, order book data confirmed that support and resistance were now almost shoulder-to-shoulder.

According to on-chain monitoring resource Whalemap, a cluster of whale positions between $20,546 and $21,327 meant that this large area was now the zone to beat.

Buyer interest, meanwhile, stayed at around $19,200. This also formed whale bids after BTC/USD dipped to multi-year lows of $17,600 in Q2.

#Bitcoin‘s range from a whale perspective.

Let’s see how this range resolves. pic.twitter.com/UsN7NrF3AC

— whalemap (@whale_map) July 5, 2022

“D1 close above 20.5k and maybe we’ll finally get D1 trend retest,” popular trader Pierre, meanwhile, tweeted in a fresh update:

“Warned few weeks ago this was setting up like May for a lot of chop while D1 trend would catch down with price. So far that’s exactly what we got, I’d just like a proper D1 trend retest, last one was at 32k…”

An accompanying chart showed moving averages between 10 days and 30 days keeping spot in check.

At $20,200 at the time of writing, BTC/USD thus traded immediately below an important line in the sand on lower timeframes. For Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, breaking through this could open up the path to the other side of resistance at $23,000.

This one did crack the resistance and ran towards the next area of resistance at $20.3K.

I’m expecting #Bitcoin to consolidate for a bit here, but breaking the next resistance zone is a trigger for continuation towards $23K and a summer relief rally. https://t.co/e8tFtrnEsz pic.twitter.com/DnQHcCL3dF

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) July 5, 2022

Industry news had little impact on BTC price action, this coming in the form of crypto exchange Voyager Digital filing for bankruptcy, the latest domino in a chain reaction sparked by the breakdown of lending platform Celsius.

USD takes a breather

On the macro level, Asian markets drifted lower, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng down 1.2% and the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.4% at the time of writing.

The United States dollar index (DXY), fresh from a surge to new twenty-year highs, meanwhile, consolidated immediately below the peak, still above 106.

“First time we’re seeing such a recovery after a severe correction + strength on the $DXY,” Van de Poppe added:

“Strength on the equities as well. Wouldn’t be surprised if this continues in the coming period, despite the overall sentiment being ultra bearish.”

Bitcoin faces fresh pressure as US dollar crushes gold, risk assets

BTC/USD falls $1,000 while spot gold gives up 2% as USD strength intensifies, beating the year’s previous peaks.

Bitcoin (BTC) hit daily lows on the July 5 Wall Street open as the U.S. dollar saw a violent surge higher.

USD sets yet another 20-year record

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD retreating to $19,281 on Bitstamp as the Independence Day long weekend concluded with a bump.

The pair had seen last-minute gains the day prior, these fizzling as the return of Wall Street trading was accompanied by USD strength laying waste to gains across risk assets and safe havens.

Bitcoin traded down $1,000 on the day, while spot gold shed over 2% and U.S. equities markets also fell. The S&P 500 was down 2.2% at the time of writing, while the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 1.7%.

*XAU/USD 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingView*

The U.S. dollar index (DXY), on the contrary, hit 106.59, a level not seen since December 2002 and above previous breakouts from Q2 this year.

Bitcoin analysts thus waited for signs of a trend reversal to provide some relief to crypto markets.

Waiting for Dollar Crash $DXY pic.twitter.com/HaKXIM3OFB

— Trader_J (@Trader_Jibon) July 5, 2022

“Euro hitting record levels, $1.033 at this point. Last seen in the years 2002–2003 and DXY, of course, shooting up like a rocket,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe commented, noting that the euro was heading towards USD parity.

In additional commentary, Caleb Franzen, senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics, pointed to how the DXY shed light on investor sentiment over the health of the economy.

“Over the past week, yields are falling but the dollar keeps rising. This dynamic proves that investors are rushing to safety, with heightened fears of recession,” part of a tweet read.

*The U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-month candle chart. Source: TradingView*

Crypto Fear & Greed Index hits 2-month high

While volatility edged back into crypto markets, sentiment was yet to reflect the impact of a rampant dollar.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 19/100 on the day, still indicative of “extreme fear” but nonetheless its highest reading since before the Terra LUNA debacle in May.

As Cointelegraph additionally reported, investment manager ARK Invest revealed that it was still “neutral to positive” on BTC under current circumstances.

Analyzing Bitcoin futures market sentiment, meanwhile, Edris, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, voiced caution about making conclusions over any form of recovery.

The taker buy/ sell ratio, which indicates whether buyers or sellers are in control, saw some relief on the day, Edris showed, but the move should be taken with a pinch of salt.

“However, note that it could just be a consolidation or a bullish pullback before another continuation lower,” a blog post read.

“So, many other factors should be considered closely in the coming weeks in order to determine if a bullish reversal or another bull trap could be expected.”

*Bitcoin taker buy/ sell ratio annotated chart. Source: Edris/ Twitter*

Bitcoin’s inverse correlation with US dollar hits 17-month highs — what’s next for BTC?

Market pundits anticipate the dollar rally to either stall or correct by the end of 2022, benefiting Bitcoin.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been moving in the opposite direction of the United States dollar since the beginning of 2022 — and now that inverse relationship is more extreme than ever.

Bitcoin and the dollar go in opposite ways

Notably, the weekly correlation coefficient between BTC and USD dropped to 0.77 below zero in the week ending July 3, its lowest in seventeen months.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s correlation with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite reached 0.78 above zero in the same weekly session, data from TradingView shows.

*BTC/USD and U.S. dollar correlation coefficient. Source: TradingView*

That is primarily because of these markets’ year-to-date performances amid the fears of recession , led by the Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate hikes to curb rising inflation. Bitcoin, for example, has lost over 60% in 2022, while Nasdaq’s returns in the same period stand around minus 29.72%.

On the other hand, USD has excelled, with its U.S. dollar index (DXY) — a metric that measures its strength against a basket of top foreign currencies — hovering around its January 2003 highs of 105.78.

*BTC/USD vs. DXY vs. NDAQ weekly price chart. Source: TradingView*

Will dollar rise further?

The Fed appears compelled to increase benchmark rates based on how traders have priced the front-end derivative contracts.

Notably, traders anticipate the Fed to raise the rates by 75 basis points (bps) in July. They also bet Fed won’t raise rates beyond 3.3% by this year’s end from the current 1.25%-1.5% range.

However, a push to 3.4% by the first quarter of 2023 could have the central bank dial back its aggressive tightening.

That could result in a 50 basis point cut by the end of next year, as shown in the chart below.

*Changes in Fed’s interest rate target. Source: TradingView*

An early rate cut could happen if the inflation data cools down, thus limiting investors’ appetite for the dollar, according to Wall Street analysts surveyed by JPMorgan. Notably, around 40% see the dollar ending 2022 at its current price levels — around 105.

Meanwhile, another 36% bet that the greenback would correct ahead of the year’s close.

“Foreign exchange is not a linear world. At some point, things flip,” noted Ugo Lancioni, head of global currency at Neuberger Berman, adding:

“I personally have a bias to short the dollar at some point.”

Bitcoin to bottom out in 2022?

In addition, the dollar’s ability to continue its rally for the rest of 2022 could be hampered by a classic technical pattern.

First spotted by independent market analyst Agres, the DXY’s double top pattern is partially confirmed due to its two consecutive highs and a common support level of 103.81.

As a rule of technical analysis, the double top pattern could resolve when the price breaks below the support and falls by as much as the structure’s maximum height, as shown in the chart below.

*DXY daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

As a result, DXY’s double top profit target comes to be near 101.8, down over 3.25% from the price of July 3.

“The dollar is extremely overbought and overheated,” explained Agres, adding that its correction in the coming sessions could benefit stocks and cryptocurrencies:

“Finally, looking like it [DXY] will topple down hard. In perfect confluence for a melt-up scenario. When [the] dollar goes down, stocks and crypto rally.”

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s “MVRV-Z Score” has also fallen into a range that has historically preceded sharp, long-term upside retracement. This on-chain indicator predicts that Bitcoin could bottom at around $15,600 in 2022.

Bitcoin’s inverse correlation with US dollar hits 17-month highs — what’s next for BTC?

Market pundits anticipate the dollar rally to either stall or correct by the end of 2022, benefiting Bitcoin.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been moving in the opposite direction of the U.S. dollar since the beginning of 2022 — and now that inverse relationship is more extreme than ever.

Bitcoin and the dollar go in opposite ways

Notably, the weekly correlation coefficient between BTC and the dollar dropped to 0.77 below zero in the week ending July 3, its lowest in seventeen months.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s correlation with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite reached 0.78 above zero in the same weekly session, data from TradingView shows.

That is primarily because of these markets’ year-to-date performances amid the fears of recession, led by the Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate hikes to curb rising inflation. Bitcoin, for example, has lost over 60% in 2022, while Nasdaq’s returns in the same period stand around minus 29.72%.

On the other hand, the dollar has excelled, with its U.S. dollar index (DXY), a metric that measures its strength against a basket of top foreign currencies, hovering around its January 2003 highs of 105.78.

Will dollar rise further?

The Fed appears compelled to increase benchmark rates based on how traders have priced the front-end derivative contracts.

Notably, traders anticipate the Fed to raise the rates by 75 basis points (bps) in July. They also bet Fed won’t raise rates beyond 3.3% by this year’s end from the current 1.25%-1.5% range.

However, a push to 3.4% by the first quarter of 2023 could have the central bank dial back its aggressive tightening.

That could result in a 50 basis point cut by the end of next year, as shown in the chart below.

Meanwhile, another 36% bet that the greenback would correct ahead of the year’s close.

“Foreign exchange is not a linear world. At some point, things flip,” noted Ugo Lancioni, head of global currency at Neuberger Berman, adding:

“I personally have a bias to short the dollar at some point.”

Bitcoin to bottom out in 2022?

In addition, the dollar’s ability to continue its rally for the rest of 2022 could be hampered by a classic technical pattern.

First spotted by independent market analyst Agres, the DXY’s “double top” pattern is partially confirmed due to its two consecutive highs and a common support level of 103.81.

As a rule of technical analysis, the double top pattern could resolve when the price breaks below the support and falls by as much as the structure’s maximum height, as shown in the chart below.

As a result, DXY’s double top profit target comes to be near 101.8, down over 3.25% from today’s price.

“The dollar is extremely overbought and overheated,” explained Agres, adding that its correction in the coming sessions could benefit stocks and cryptocurrencies.

“Finally, looking like it [DXY] will topple down hard. In perfect confluence for a melt-up scenario. When [the] dollar goes down, stocks and crypto rally.”

Bitcoin nears worst monthly losses since 2011 with BTC price at $19K

Bitcoin price action will seal monthly losses over 40% for the first time in 11 years if it closes at $19,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) drifted further downhill into the June 30 Wall Street open as United States equities opened with a whimper.

U.S. dollar returns to multi-decade highs

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it abandoned $19,000 to hit its lowest in over ten days.

Bulls failed to preserve either $20,000 or $19,000 at the hands of limp U.S. stock market moves, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index down 1.8% and 2.6%, respectively, at the time of writing.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar once again staged a comeback to fix a trajectory toward twenty-year highs seen this quarter.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) was above 105.1 on the day, coming within just 0.2 points of its highest levels since 2002.

“The US dollar (DXY) looks set to test highs last seen in December 2002 as the short-term downtrend is broken convincingly amid risk markets’ continued crumble,” researcher and trader Faisal Khan summarized on Twitter.

Data on inflation, meanwhile, once more suggested the worst could be behind the market.

Peak #inflation? The inflation rate most closely watched by Fed showed that price pressures were a bit tamer: May PCE was a bit soft, w/headline +6.3% YoY (flat vs April, below +6.4% expected) & core +4.7% (from +4.9% in Apr & below +4.8% forecast). Bonds rally w/US 10y down 7bps pic.twitter.com/FFgb6du6dS

— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) June 30, 2022

As Cointelegraph reported, however, central banks began to acknowledge that the low rates seen before COVID-19 may never return.

Bulls’ worst month in 11 years

With the majority of on-chain metrics now at historic lows , price data hinted how far BTC could theoretically go in a bear market increasingly unlike the rest.

Should it close at current levels of $19,000, BTC/USD would seal monthly losses of over 40% for June 2022.

That would make it the worst June ever and the heaviest monthly losses since September 2011, data from TradingView and on-chain monitoring resource Coinglass confirms.

Even March 2020 and the 2018 and 2014 bear markets were less severe on monthly timeframes. Forty percent drops were last seen when BTC/USD traded at $8.