derivatives

3 reasons why Ethereum price keeps rejecting at the $1,300 level

Traders are not sure if ETH will be able to hold the $1,200 level while the S&P 500 rapidly approaches the crucial 3,900 support and ETH derivatives data hints at more downside.

Ether (ETH) rallied 11.3% between Nov. 28 and Dec. 5, peaking at $1,300 before facing a 4.6% rejection. The $1,300 resistance level has been holding ground for twenty-six days and is the most likely explanation for the correction to $1,240 on Dec. 6.

*Ether/USD price index, 12-hour. Source: TradingView*

So from one side, traders are relieved that Ether is trading 16% above the $1,070 low reached on Nov. 22, but it must be frustrating to fail at the same level the entire week. In addition to the price rejection, investors’ mood worsened after three members of the United States Senate reportedly requested information from Silvergate Bank regarding its relationship with FTX.

The lawmakers raised questions after “reports suggesting that Silvergate facilitated the transfer of FTX customer funds to Alameda” and gave the bank until Dec. 19 to issue a response.

On Dec. 5, NBC News reported that Silvergate claimed to be a “victim” of FTX’s and Alameda Research’s “apparent misuse of customer assets and other lapses of judgment.”

Newsflow remained negative after the Financial Times reported that the United Kingdom Treasury is finalizing some guidelines to restrict cryptocurrency sales from abroad. The changes would enable the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) to monitor the crypto companies’ operations in the region. The guidelines are being prepared as a part of the financial services and markets bill.

Investors are afraid that Ether could lose the $1,200 support, but as highlighted by trader CashMontee, the S&P 500 stock market index will be the key — but for now, the “market too bullish.”

nah market too bullish I think. As long as spx stays up so does crypto. Monthly level at 1205 that i think will be tagged after but we didn't take enough liquidity on eth yet to fall back down but of course could be wrong

— CashMontee (@CashMontee) December 5, 2022

Let’s look at Ether derivatives data to understand if the bearish newsflow has impacted crypto investors’ sentiment.

Slight uptick in bearish demand for ETH futures’ leverage

Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets. Meanwhile, professional traders prefer these instruments because they prevent the fluctuation of funding rates in a perpetual futures contract.

The two-month futures annualized premium should trade between +4% to +8% in healthy markets to cover costs and associated risks. Thus, when the futures trade at a discount versus regular spot markets, it shows a lack of confidence from leverage buyers — a bearish indicator.

*Ether 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch*

The above chart shows that derivatives traders remain bearish as the Ether futures premium is negative. So, bears can celebrate that the indicator is far from the neutral 0% to 4% premium, but that does not mean traders expect an immediate adverse price action.

For this reason, traders should analyze Ether’s options markets to exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument.

Options traders are getting comfortable with the downside risks

The 25% delta skew is a telling sign when market makers and arbitrage desks are overcharging for upside or downside protection.

In bear markets, options investors give higher odds for a price dump, causing the skew indicator to rise above 10%. On the other hand, bullish markets tend to drive the skew indicator below -10%, meaning the bearish put options are discounted.

*Ether 60-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas.ch*

The delta skew has stabilized in the past week, signaling that options traders are more comfortable with downside risks.

As the 60-day delta skew stands at 12%, whales and market makers are getting closer to a neutral sentiment for Ether. Ultimately, both options and futures markets point to pro traders fearing that the $1,200 support retest is the natural course for ETH.

The answer might as well be hidden under the macroeconomic calendar ahead, which includes the EuroZone’s and Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Dec. 7 and the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Dec. 13.

Currently, the odds favor Ether bears because the newsflow implies that the possibility of stricter regulation is weighing down the market.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin bears beware! BTC holds $17K as support while the S&P 500 drops 1.5%

BTC whales and market makers are holding their leveraged long positions, even though BTC failed to break above $17,400 on Dec. 5

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls regained some control on Nov. 30 and they were successful in keeping the BTC price above $16,800 for the past 5 days. While the level is lower than traders’ desired $19,000 to $20,000 target, the 8.6% gain since the Nov. 21 $15,500 low provides enough cushioning for eventual negative price surprises.

One of these instances is the United States stock market trading down 1.5% on Dec. 5 after a stronger-than-expected reading of November ISM Services fueled concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue hiking interest rates. At the September meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the point of keeping interest rates flat “will need to be somewhat higher.”

Currently, the macroeconomic headwinds remain unfavorable and this is likely to remain the case until investors have a clearer picture of the employment market and foreign currency strength of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).

Excessively high levels lower the income of exporters and companies that rely on revenues outside the United States. A weak dollar also indicates a lack of confidence in the U.S. Treasury’s capacity to manage its $31.4 trillion debt.

The impact of the 2022 bear market continues to make waves as Bybit exchange decided to roll out a second round of layoffs on Dec. 4. Ben Zhou, co-founder and CEO of Bybit, announced a steep 30% reduction in the company’s workforce. The company had previously grown to over 2,000 employees in two years.

Let’s look at derivatives metrics to better understand how professional traders are positioned in the current market conditions.

Asia-based stablecoin demand drops after a 4% peak

The USD Coin (USDC) premium is a good gauge of China-based crypto retail trader demand. It measures the difference between China-based peer-to-peer trades and the United States dollar.

Excessive buying demand tends to pressure the indicator above fair value at 100%, and during bearish markets, the stablecoin’s market offer is flooded, causing a 4% or higher discount.

*USDC peer-to-peer vs. USD/CNY. Source: OKX*

Currently, the USDC premium stands at 100.5%, down from 103.5% on Nov. 28, so despite the failed attempts to break above the $17,500 resistance, there was no panic selling from Asian retail investors.

However, this data should not be considered bullish because the recent USDC buying pressure up to a 4% premium indicates that traders took shelter in stablecoins.

Leverage buyers ignored the recent pump to $17,400

The long-to-short metric excludes externalities that might have solely impacted the stablecoin market. It also gathers data from exchange clients’ positions on the spot, perpetual and quarterly futures contracts, thus offering better information on how professional traders are positioned.

There are occasional methodological discrepancies between different exchanges, so readers should monitor changes instead of absolute figures.

*Exchanges’ top traders Bitcoin long-to-short ratio. Source: Coinglass*

Even though Bitcoin gained 5.5% in seven days, professional traders have kept their leverage long positions unchanged according to the long-to-short indicator.

The ratio for Binance traders improved from 1.05 on Nov. 28 to the current 1.09 level. Meanwhile, Huobi displayed a modest decrease in its long-to-short ratio, with the indicator moving from 1.07 to 1.03 in the seven days until Dec. 5.

At OKX exchange, the metric increased from 0.98 on Nov. 28 to the current 1.01 ratio. So, on average, traders have kept their leverage ratio during the week, which is disappointing data considering the price gain.

The $16.8 support is gaining strength, but derivatives show mild buying demand

These two derivatives metrics — stablecoin premium and top traders’ long-to-short — suggest that leverage buyers did not back the Bitcoin price rally to $17,400 on Dec. 5.

A more bullish sentiment would have moved the Asian stablecoin premium above 3% and the long-to-short ratio higher versus the previous week. The present data from those two markets reduce the odds of a sustainable rally above $17,400. Still, a 3.5% decline toward the $16,500 support should not cause concern because both metrics showed no sign of leveraged bearish bets being formed.

In short, the bearish sentiment prevails, but bears are becoming less confident even as Bitcoin price trades flat and the S&P 500 index declined by 1.5%.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Total crypto market-cap hits $850M as Bitcoin and altcoins recover from FTX’s collapse

The total crypto market recovers some lost ground as the contagion risks associated with FTX’s collapse begin to look resolvable.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization gained 2% in the past seven days, reaching $850 billion. Even with the positive movement and the ascending channel that was initiated on Nov. 20, the overall sentiment remains bearish and year-to-date losses amount to 63.5%.

*Total crypto market cap in USD, 4-hour. Source: TradingView*

Bitcoin (BTC) price also gained a mere 2% on the week, but investors have little to celebrate as the current $16,800 level represents a 64% drop year-to-date.

Bankrupt exchange FTX remained at the centerpiece of the newsflow after the exchange hacker continued to move portions of the stolen $477 million in stolen assets as an attempt to launder the money. On Nov. 29, analysts alleged that a portion of the stolen funds were transferred to OKX.

The FTX saga has made politicians shout louder in their calls for regulation. On Nov. 28, the European Central Bank (ECB) president Christine Lagarde called regulation and supervision of crypto an “absolute necessity.” The United States House Financial Services Committee Chair Maxine Waters announced that lawmakers would explore the collapse of FTX in a Dec. 13 inquiry.

On Nov. 28, Kraken, a U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchange, agreed to pay more than $362,000 as part of a deal “to settle its potential civil liability” related to violating sanctions against Iran. According to the United States Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, Kraken exported services to users who appeared to be in Iran when they engaged in virtual currency transactions.

The 2% weekly gain in total market capitalization was impacted mainly by Ether’s (ETH) 7% positive price move. The bullish sentiment also significantly impacted altcoins, with 6 of the top 80 coins rallying 10% or more in the period.

*Weekly winners and losers among the top 80 coins. Source: Nomics*

Fantom (FTM) gained 29.3% amid reports that the Fantom Foundation generates consistent profits and has 30 years of runway without selling any FTM tokens.

Dogecoin (DOGE) rallied 26.8% as investors increased expectations that Elon Musk’s vision for Twitter 2.0 will include some form of DOGE integration.

ApeCoin (APE) gained 15.6% after the community-led DAO made up of ApeCoin holders launched its own marketplace to buy and sell NFTs from the Yuga Labs ecosystem.

Chainlink (LINK) rallied 11.1% ahead of its staking services beta-version launch on Dec. 6, boosting holders’ reward-earning opportunities.

Leverage demand is balanced between bulls and bears

Perpetual contracts, also known as inverse swaps, have an embedded rate usually charged every eight hours. Exchanges use this fee to avoid exchange risk imbalances.

A positive funding rate indicates that longs (buyers) demand more leverage. However, the opposite situation occurs when shorts (sellers) require additional leverage, causing the funding rate to turn negative.

*Perpetual futures accumulated 7-day funding rate on Nov. 30. Source: Coinglass*

The 7-day funding rate was near zero for Bitcoin, Ether and XRP, so the data points to a balanced demand between leverage longs (buyers) and shorts (sellers).

The only exception was BNB, which presented a 1.3% weekly funding rate for those holding leverage shorts. Although it’s not burdensome to sellers, it reflects investors’ unease about buying BNB at the current price levels.

Traders should also analyze the options markets to understand whether whales and arbitrage desks have placed higher bets on bullish or bearish strategies.

The options put/call ratio shows moderate bullishness

Traders can gauge the market’s overall sentiment by measuring whether more activity is going through call (buy) options or put (sell) options. Generally speaking, call options are used for bullish strategies, whereas put options are for bearish ones.

A 0.70 put-to-call ratio indicates that put options open interest lag the more bullish calls by 30% and is therefore bullish. In contrast, a 1.20 indicator favors put options by 20%, which can be deemed bearish.

*BTC options open interest put-to-call ratio. Source: Laevitas.ch*

Even though Bitcoin’s price failed to break the $17,000 resistance on Nov. 30, there was no excessive demand for downside protection using options. As a result, the put-to-call ratio remained steady near 0.53. The Bitcoin options market remains more strongly populated by neutral-to-bearish strategies, as the current level favoring buy options (calls) indicates.

Despite the weekly price rally on select altcoins and even the 7.1% gain in Ether price, there have been no signs of sentiment improvement according to derivatives metrics.

There’s balanced demand for leverage using futures contracts, and the BTC options risk assessment metric did not improve even as Bitcoin’s price tested the $17,000 level.

Currently, the odds favor those betting that the $870 billion market capitalization resistance will display strength but a 5% negative move toward the $810 billion support is not enough to invalidate the ascending channel, which could give bulls the much-needed room to eradicate the contagion risks caused by FTX’s insolvency.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Total crypto market-cap hits $850B as Bitcoin and altcoins recover from FTX’s collapse

The total crypto market recovers some lost ground as the contagion risks associated with FTX’s collapse begin to look resolvable.

Bitcoin (BTC) price also gained a mere 2% on the week, but investors have little to celebrate as the current $16,800 level represents a 64% drop year-to-date.

Fantom (FTM) gained 29.3% amid reports that the Fantom Foundation generates consistent profits and has 30 years of runway without selling any FTM tokens.

Dogecoin (DOGE) rallied 26.8% as investors increased expectations that Elon Musk’s vision for Twitter 2.0 will include some form of DOGE integration.

ApeCoin (APE) gained 15.6% after the community-led DAO made up of ApeCoin holders launched its own marketplace to buy and sell nonfungible tokens (NFTs) from the Yuga Labs ecosystem.

Chainlink (LINK) rallied 11.1% ahead of its staking services beta-version launch on Dec. 6, boosting holders’ reward-earning opportunities.

Leverage demand is balanced between bulls and bears

Perpetual contracts, also known as inverse swaps, have an embedded rate usually charged every eight hours. Exchanges use this fee to avoid exchange risk imbalances.

The 7-day funding rate was near zero for Bitcoin, Ether and XRP (XRP), so the data points to a balanced demand between leverage longs (buyers) and shorts (sellers).

The only exception was BNB (BNB), which presented a 1.3% weekly funding rate for those holding leverage shorts. Although it’s not burdensome to sellers, it reflects investors’ unease about buying BNB at the current price levels.

Traders should also analyze the options markets to understand whether whales and arbitrage desks have placed higher bets on bullish or bearish strategies.

The options put/call ratio shows moderate bullishness

Despite the weekly price rally on select altcoins and even the 7.1% gain in Ether price, there have been no signs of sentiment improvement according to derivatives metrics.

There’s balanced demand for leverage using futures contracts, and the BTC options risk assessment metric did not improve even as Bitcoin’s price tested the $17,000 level.

Currently, the odds favor those betting that the $870 billion market capitalization resistance will display strength, but a 5% negative move toward the $810 billion support is not enough to invalidate the ascending channel, which could give bulls the much-needed room to eradicate the contagion risks caused by FTX’s insolvency.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Don’t’ believe the hype — Bitcoin price rally to $17K reflects improving sentiment

Negative newsflow continues to make headlines but BTC’s recent move above $17,000 suggests investors are finding reasons to be bullish.

Bitcoin (BTC) price gained 6.1% between Nov. 28 and Nov. 30 after briefly testing the $17,000 support. Favorable regulatory winds might have helped fuel the rally after the Binance exchange announced the acquisition of a regulated crypto exchange in Japan on Nov. 30.

*Bitcoin 12-hour price index, USD. Source: TradingView*

Binance shut its operations in Japan in 2018 after being warned by the Japan Financial Services Agency for operating without a license. The acquisition of Sakura Exchange BitCoin would mark the re-entry of Binance in the Japanese market.

Furthermore, Gemini exchange announced new regulatory approvals in Italy and Greece on Nov. 30. The exchange was granted registration as a virtual currency operator with Italy’s payments services regulator. Gemini was approved as an exchange and custodial wallet provider in Greece.

However, not everything has been positive on the regulatory front. In separate letters from Nov. 28, Ron Wyden, chair of the United States Senate Finance Committee, requested information from six cryptocurrency exchanges. The lawmaker targeted the necessity of “consumer protections along the lines of the assurances that have long existed for customers of banks, credit unions and securities brokers.”

Wyden requested the six firms provide answers by Dec. 12 on safeguards of consumer assets and market manipulation. The Senate Agriculture Committee has also scheduled a hearing to explore the collapse of FTX on Dec. 1.

During these events, Bitcoin has been trying to break above $17,000 for the past eighteen days, so some selling pressure clearly remains above that level.

The most likely culprit is the risk of capitulation from Bitcoin miners after they’ve seen their profits squeezed by falling spot prices and surging Bitcoin mining difficulty. Cointelegraph noted that Bitcoin miners face a significant squeeze after expecting to sell accumulated BTC at a profit.

Let’s look at crypto derivatives data to understand whether investors remain risk-averse to Bitcoin.

Futures markets are no longer in backwardation

Fixed-month futures contracts usually trade at a slight premium to regular spot markets because sellers demand more money to withhold settlement for longer. Technically known as contango, this situation is not exclusive to crypto assets.

In healthy markets, futures should trade at a 4% to 8% annualized premium, which is enough to compensate for the risks plus the cost of capital.

*Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch*

Considering the data above, derivatives traders have improved their expectations and the Bitcoin futures premium is no longer negative — meaning the demand for bullish and bearish leverage is equally balanced.

Still, the present 0% premium is far from the 4% threshold for bullishness, indicating professional traders’ reluctance to add leveraged long (bull) positions.

Another notable development is the long-to-short ratio improving over the past two days. To exclude externalities that might have solely impacted the quarterly contracts, traders should analyze the top traders’ long-to-short ratio.

The metric also gathers data from exchange clients’ positions on the spot and perpetual contracts, which better informs how professional traders are positioned.

Even though Bitcoin failed to break $17,000 on Nov. 30, professional traders slightly increased their leverage long positions according to the long-to-short indicator. For instance, the Binance traders’ ratio improved from 1.07 on Nov. 28 and presently stands at 1.10.

Similarly, OKX displayed a modest increase in its long-to-short ratio, as the indicator moved from 0.98 to the current 1.03 in two days. The metric slightly declined to 1.02 at the Huobi exchange and this shows that traders did not become bearish after the latest resistance rejection.

The absence of negative price moves is a bullish indicator

Traders should not conclude that the absence of futures premium reflects worsening market conditions because the broader data from the long-to-short ratio has shown whales and market makers adding leverage longs.

The Bitcoin price movement has been surprisingly positive considering the recent negative newsflow and fear relating to the potential of a regulatory crackdown and miners’ ability to withstand a more extended crypto winter.

It will likely take longer for investors to regain confidence and feel that the current contagion risks are over. As a result, bears could continue to exert pressure and sustain Bitcoin below $17,000 in the short-term.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Ethereum derivatives look bearish, but traders believe the ETH bottom is in

Expectations of stringent regulation and further contagion from FTX continue to weigh on ETH price, but derivatives are showing a modest improvement in sentiment.

Ether (ETH) rallied 5.5% in the early hours of Nov. 29, reclaiming the critical $1,200 support. However, when analyzing a broader time frame, the 24% negative performance in the past 30 days significantly impacts investors’ sentiment. Moreover, investors’ mood worsened after BlockFi filed for bankruptcy on Nov. 28.

Newsflow remained negative after the United States Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced a settlement with crypto exchange Kraken for “apparent violations of sanctions against Iran.” In a Nov. 28 announcement, the OFAC said Kraken had agreed to pay more than $362,000 to settle its potential civil liability.

Moreover, on Nov. 28, institutional crypto financial services provider Silvergate Capital denied rumors of significant exposure to BlockFi’s bankruptcy. Silvergate added that its losses are less than than $20 million in digital assets and reiterated that BlockFi was not a custodian for its crypto-collateralized loans.

Traders are afraid that Ether could drop below $800 if the bear market continues. One example comes from Crypto Twitter trader Il Capo Of Crypto:

I have spent hundreds of hours analyzing the market to come to the conclusion that:

Capitulation is a matter of time. $BTC should reach 12ks, $ETH 600-700, altcoins should drop 40-50% and shitcoins 50%+.

I won't post any more here until confirmation or invalidation.

Good luck!

— il Capo Of Crypto (@CryptoCapo_) November 28, 2022

Let’s look at Ether derivatives data to understand if the worsening market conditions have impacted crypto investors’ sentiment.

Pro traders are slowly exiting panic levels

Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets. They are professional traders’ preferred instruments because they prevent the fluctuation of funding rates that often occurs in a perpetual futures contract.

*Ether 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas*

The above chart shows that derivatives traders remain bearish as the Ether futures premium is negative. Nevertheless, it at least has shown some modest improvement on Nov. 29. Bears can highlight how far we are from a neutral-to-bullish 0% to 4% premium, but the aftermath of a 71% drop in one year holds great weight.

Still, traders should also analyze Ether’s options markets to exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument.

Options traders do not expect a sudden rally

The 25% delta skew is a telling sign when market makers and arbitrage desks are overcharging for upside or downside protection.

*Ether 60-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas*

The delta skew has gone down in the past week, signaling that options traders are more comfortable offering downside protection.

As the 60-day delta skew stands at 18%, whales and market makers are pricing higher odds of price dumps for Ether. Consequently, both options and futures markets point to pro traders fearing a retest of the $1,070 low is the natural course for ETH.

From an optimistic perspective, data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows that the November 2022 sell-off was the fourth-largest for Bitcoin (BTC). The movement has led to a seven-day realized loss of $10.2 billion.

Consequently, odds are the capitulation for Ether holders has passed and those placing bullish bets right now — defying the ETH derivatives metrics — will eventually come out ahead.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin’s bottom might be below $15.5K, but data shows some traders turning bullish

Bitcoin whales and market makers continue to add to their leverage long positions, even though it’s unclear whether $15,500 was the final bottom.

Bitcoin (BTC) bears have been in control since Nov. 11, subduing BTC price below $17,000 on every 12-hour candle. On Nov. 28, a drop to $16,000 shattered bulls’ hope that the 7% gains between Nov. 21 and Nov. 24 were enough to mark a cycle low at $15,500.

The most likely culprit was an unexpected transfer of 127,000 BTC from a Binance cold wallet on Nov. 28. The huge Bitcoin transaction immediately triggered fear, uncertainty and doubt, but the Binance CEO, Changpeng Zhao, subsequently announced it was part of an auditing process.

Regulatory pressure has also been limiting BTC’s upside after reports on Nov. 25 showed that cryptocurrency lending firm Genesis Global Capital and other crypto firms were under investigation by securities regulators in the United States. Joseph Borg, director of the Alabama Securities Commission, confirmed that its state and several other states are investigating Genesis’ alleged ties to securities laws violation.

On Nov. 16, Genesis announced it had temporarily suspended withdrawals, citing “unprecedented market turmoil.” Genesis also hired restructuring advisers to explore all possible options, including but not limited to a potential bankruptcy, as reported by Cointelegraph on Nov. 23.

Let’s look at derivatives metrics to better understand how professional traders are positioned in the current market conditions.

Margin markets show leverage longs at a 3-month high

Margin markets provide insight into how professional traders are positioned because it allows investors to borrow cryptocurrency to leverage their positions.

For instance, one can increase exposure by borrowing stablecoins to buy Bitcoin. On the other hand, Bitcoin borrowers can only short the cryptocurrency as they bet on its price declining. Unlike futures contracts, the balance between margin longs and shorts isn’t always matched.

*OKX stablecoin/BTC margin lending ratio. Source: OKX*

The above chart shows that OKX traders’ margin lending ratio increased from Nov. 20 to Nov. 27, signaling that professional traders increased their leverage longs during the 6% dip toward $15,500. Presently at 34, the metric favors stablecoin borrowing by a wide margin — the highest in three months — indicating traders have kept their bullish positions.

Leverage buyers ignored the recent dip to $15,500

The long-to-short metric excludes externalities that might have solely impacted the margin markets. In addition, it gathers data from exchange clients’ positions on the spot, perpetual and quarterly futures contracts, thus offering better information on how professional traders are positioned.

There are occasional methodological discrepancies between different exchanges, so readers should monitor changes instead of absolute figures.

Even though Bitcoin failed to break above the $16,700 resistance, professional traders have kept their leverage long positions, according to the long-to-short indicator.

For instance, the ratio for Binance traders improved somewhat from 1.00 on Nov. 21, but ended the period at 1.05. Meanwhile, Huobi displayed a more substantial increase in its long-to-short ratio, with the indicator moving from 1.01 to 1.08 in the seven days until Nov. 28.

At crypto exchange OKX, the metric slightly decreased from 0.99 on Nov. 21 to 0.96 on Nov. 28. Consequently, on average, traders are confident enough to keep adding leverage to bullish positions.

The $16,200 support showed strength, suggesting that traders are turning bullish

These two derivatives metrics — margin and top trader’s long-to-short — suggest that size leverage sellers did not back the Bitcoin price correction to $16,000 on Nov. 28.

A bearish sentiment would have caused the margin lending ratio to go below 15, pushing the long-to-short ratio much lower. It is important to note that even pro traders can misinterpret the market, but the present reading from the derivatives market favors a strong $16,000 support.

Still, even if the price revisits $15,500, the bulls should not be concerned as the derivatives indicators withheld neutral-to-bullish on Nov. 21 and further improved during the week.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Ether tests $1,200 but bears better positioned for $1.13B options expiry on Nov. 25

Bears are better positioned to profit roughly $215 million during November’s Ether options expiry, putting pressure on ETH’s price near a critical resistance level.

No matter if one analyzes Ether’s (ETH) longer-term or weekly time frame, there is little hope for bulls. Besides the negative 69% year-to-date performance, a descending channel has been pressuring the ETH price while offering resistance at $1,200.

*Ether/USD 4-hour price index. Source: TradingView*

Regulatory uncertainty continues to weigh down the sector. For example, Starling, a digital bank based in the United Kingdom, announced on Nov. 22 that it would no longer allow customers to send or receive money from digital asset exchanges or merchants. The bank described cryptocurrencies as “high risk and heavily used for criminal purposes.”

Other concerning news for the Ethereum ecosystem involved the decentralized finance (DeFi) platform Aave, which suffered a short-seller attack on Nov. 22 aimed to profit from under-collateralized loans.

Curiously, a similar exploit happened on the Mango Markets DeFi application in October. Albeit not a direct attack on the Ethereum network, the attacker has shown critical flaws in some major decentralized collateral lending applications.

Furthermore, the Singapore-based cryptocurrency lender Hodlnaut is reportedly facing a police probe over allegations of cheating and fraud. The issues started on Aug. 8 after the lending firm cited a liquidity crisis and suspended withdrawals on the platform.

Lastly, on Nov. 22, United States senator Elizabeth Warren correlated the demise of the FTX exchange to subprime mortgages of 2008 and penny stocks used for pump-and-dump schemes. Warren said the FTX collapse should be a “wake-up call” to regulators to enforce laws on the crypto industry.

That is why the $1.13 billion Ether monthly options expiry on Nov. 25 will put a lot of price pressure on the bulls, even though ETH posted 11% gains between Nov. 22-24.

Most of the bullish bets were placed above $1,400

Ether’s rally toward the $1,650 resistance on Nov. 5 gave the bulls the signal to expect a continuation of the uptrend. This becomes evident because only 17% of the call (buy) options for Nov. 25 have been placed below $1,400. Consequently, Ether bears are better positioned for the monthly expiry of the upcoming $1.13 billion options.

*Ether options aggregate open interest for Nov. 25. Source: CoinGlass*

A broader view using the 1.44 call-to-put ratio shows a skewed situation with bullish bets (calls) open interest at $665 million versus the $460 million put (sell) options. Nevertheless, with Ether currently hovering around $1,200, bears have a dominant position.

For instance, if the Ether price remains below $1,250 at 8:00 am UTC on Nov. 25, only $40 million worth of these call (buy) options will be available. This difference happens because there is no use in the right to buy Ether at $1,250 or $1,500 if it trades below that level on expiry.

Bears could pocket a $215 million profit

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on Nov. 25 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

Between $1,050 and $1,150: 800 calls vs. 20,200 puts. The net result favors bears by $215 million.
Between $1,150 and $1,250: 3,300 calls vs. 15,100 puts. The net result favors bearish bets by $140 million.
Between $1,250 and $1,300: 4,700 calls vs. 13,200 puts. The net result favors bears by $100 million.
Between $1,300 and $1,400: 8,700 calls vs. 8,900 puts. The net result is balanced between bulls and bears.

This crude estimate considers the call options used in bullish bets and the put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

A 7-year-old dormant Bitcoin wallet could complicate matters for Ether bulls

Ether bulls need to push the price above $1,300 on Nov. 25 to balance the scales and avoid a potential $215 million loss. However, Ether bulls seem out of luck since a Bitcoin wallet related to the 2014 Mt. Gox hack moved 10,000 BTC on Nov. 23.

Ki Young Ju, the cofounder of blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, has verified the findings, noting 0.6% of the funds were sent to exchanges and may represent sell-side liquidity.

If bears dominate the November ETH monthly options expiry, that will likely add firepower for further downside bets. Thus, at the moment, there is no indication that bulls can turn the tables and avoid the pressure from the two-week-long descending triangle.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Here’s why $16.5K is critical for November’s $1.14B Bitcoin options expiry

BTC bulls were liquidated during the drop to $15,500 on Nov. 21, and more downside could occur if bears profit $245 million during Friday’s expiry.

Bitcoin (BTC) faced a 7.3% drop between Nov. 20-21 as it tested the $15,500 support. While the correction seems small, the movement has caused $230 million in liquidations in futures contracts. Consequently, bulls using leverage came out ill-prepared for the $1.14 billion monthly options expiry on Nov. 25.

Bitcoin investors’ sentiment worsened after Genesis Trading, which is part of the Digital Currency Group (DCG) conglomerate, halted payouts at its crypto lending arm on Nov. 16. More importantly, DCG owns the fund management company Grayscale, which is responsible for the largest institutional Bitcoin investment vehicle, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).

Additionally, Bitcoin miner Core Scientific has warned of “substantial doubt” about its continued operations over the next 12 months given its financial uncertainty. In its quarterly report filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Nov. 22, the firm reported a net loss of $434.8 million inthe third quarter of 2022.

Meanwhile, New York Attorney General Letitia James addressed a letter to the members of U.S. Congress on Nov. 22 recommending barring the purchase of cryptocurrencies using funds in IRAs and defined contribution plans such as 401(k) and 457 plans.

Despite bulls’ best efforts, Bitcoin has not been able to post a daily close above $17,000 since Nov. 11. This movement explains why the $1.14 billion Bitcoin monthly options expiry on Nov. 25 could benefit bears despite the 6% rally from the $15,500 bottom.

Most bullish bets are above $18,000

Bitcoin’s steep 27.4% correction after failing to break the $21,500 resistance on Nov. 5 surprised bulls because only 17% of the call (buy) options for the monthly expiry have been placed below $18,000. Thus, bears are better positioned even though they placed fewer bets.

*Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Nov. 25. Source: CoinGlass*

A broader view using the 1.14 call-to-put ratio shows more bullish bets because the call (buy) open interest stands at $610 million against the $530 million put (sell) options. Nevertheless, as Bitcoin is down 20% in November, most bullish bets will likely become worthless.

For instance, if Bitcoin’s price remains below $17,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Nov. 25, only $53 million worth of these call (buy) options will be available. This difference happens because there is no use in the right to buy Bitcoin above $17,000 if it trades below that level on expiry.

Bears could secure a $245 million profit

Between $15,000 and $16,000: 200 calls vs. 16,000 puts. The net result favors bears by $245 million.
Between $16,000 and $17,000: 3,200 calls vs. 11,900 puts. The net result favors bears by $145 million.
Between $17,000 and $18,000: 5,600 calls vs. 8,800 puts. Bears remain in control, profiting $55 million.
Between $18,000 and $18,500: 9,100 calls vs. 6,500 puts. The net result favors bulls by $50 million.

Bitcoin bulls need to push the price above $18,000 on Nov. 25 to flip the tables and avoid a potential $245 million loss. However, Bitcoin bulls recently had $230 million worth of liquidated leveraged long futures positions, so they are less inclined to push the price higher in the short term. With that said, the most probable scenario for Nov. 15 is the $15,000-to-$17,000 range providing a decent win for bears.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Here’s why $16.5K is critical for November’s $1.14B Bitcoin options expiry

BTC bulls were liquidated during the drop to $15,500 on Nov. 21, and more downside could occur if bears profit $245 million during Friday’s expiry.

Meanwhile, New York Attorney General Letitia James addressed a letter to the members of the U.S. Congress on Nov. 22 recommending barring the purchase of cryptocurrencies using funds in IRAs and defined contribution plans such as 401(k) and 457 plans.

Despite the bulls’ best efforts, Bitcoin has not been able to post a daily close above $17,000 since Nov. 11. This movement explains why the $1.14 billion Bitcoin monthly options expiry on Nov. 25 could benefit bears despite the 6% rally from the $15,500 bottom.

Most bullish bets are above $18,000

Bitcoin’s steep 27.4% correction after failing to break the $21,500 resistance on Nov. 5 surprised bulls because only 17% of the call (buy) options for the monthly expiry have been placed below $18,000. Thus, the bears are better positioned even though they placed fewer bets.

Bears could secure a $245 million profit

Between $15,000 and $16,000: 200 calls vs. 16,000 puts. The net result favors bears by $245 million.
Between $16,000 and $17,000: 3,200 calls vs. 11,900 puts. The net result favors bears by $145 million.
Between $17,000 and $18,000: 5,600 calls vs. 8,800 puts. Bears remain in control, profiting $55 million.
Between $18,000 and $18,500: 9,100 calls vs. 6,500 puts. The net result favors bulls by $50 million.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.