derivatives

Bulls or bears? Both have a fair chance in Friday’s Bitcoin options expiry

BTC bulls aim to secure a $235 million profit from July 22’s BTC options expiry, but a downside move below $22,000 could nix this plan.

Bitcoin (BTC) briefly broke above $24,000 on July 20, but the excitement lasted less than two hours after the resistance level proved more challenging than expected. A positive is that the $24,280 high represents a 28.5% increase from the July 13 swing low at $18,900.

According to Yahoo Finance, on July 19, the Bank of America published its latest fund managers survey, and the headline was “I’m so bearish, I’m bullish.” The report cited investors’ pessimism, expectations of weak corporate earnings and equity allocations being at the lowest level since September 2008.

The 4.6% advance on the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index between July 18 and 20 also provided the necessary hope for bulls to profit from the upcoming July 22 weekly options expiry.

Global macroeconomic tensions eased on July 20 after Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed plans to reestablish the Nord Stream gas pipeline flow after the current maintenance period. However, in the course of the last few months, data shows that Germany has reduced its reliance on Russian gas from 55% to 35% of its demand.

Bears placed their bets at $21,000 or lower

The open interest for the July 22 options expiry is $540 million, but the actual figure will be lower since bears have been caught by surprise. These traders did not expect a 23% rally from July 13 to Ju20 because their bets targeted $22,000 and lower.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for July 22. Source: CoinGlass

The 1.09 call-to-put ratio shows the balance between the $280 million call (buy) open interest and the $260 million put (sell) options. Currently, Bitcoin stands near $23,500, meaning most bearish bets will likely become worthless.

If Bitcoin’s price remains above $22,000 at 8:00 am UTC on July 22, only $30 million worth of these put (sell) options will be available. This difference happens because the right to sell Bitcoin at $22,000 is useless if BTC trades above that level on expiry.

Bears aim for $24,000 to secure a $235 million profit

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on July 22 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

  • Between $20,000 and $21,000: 900 calls vs. 3,000 puts. The net result favors the put (bear) instruments by $60 million.
  • Between $21,000 and $22,000: 2,400 calls vs. 3,000 puts. The net result is balanced between bulls and bears.
  • Between $22,000 and $24,000: 6,600 calls vs. 500 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $140 million.
  • Between $24,000 and $26,000: 9,400 calls vs. 0 puts. Bulls take total control, profiting $235 million.

This crude estimate considers the put options used in bearish bets and the call options exclusively in neutral-to-bullish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

For example, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining positive exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price, but unfortunately, there’s no easy way to estimate this effect.

Related: Bitcoin may hit $120K in 2023, says trader as BTC price gains 25% in a week

Bears have until Friday to turn things around

Bitcoin bears need to pressure the price below $22,000 on July 22 to avoid a $140 million loss. On the other hand, the bulls’ best-case scenario requires a slight push above $24,000 to maximize their gains.

Bitcoin bears just had $222 million leverage long positions liquidated from July 17 to 20, so they should have less margin required to drive the price higher. In other words, bulls have a head start to sustain BTC above $22,000 ahead of the July 22 options expiry.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

DeFi’s downturn deepens, but protocols with revenue and fee sharing could thrive

It’s too early to know if DeFi is “dead,” but platforms that share revenue with liquidity providers and token holders could be the ones that survive the bear market.

At the moment, liquidity is hard to come by, but crypto traders and protocols still need inflow and revenue to remain functional.

As the crypto winter drags on, savvy crypto investors have realized that one of the reliable sources of passive income that still exists can be found on protocols that generate revenue and share some of it with their respective communities.

Let’s take a look at some of the protocols that continue to thrive in the current down market.

DeFi might be dead, but platforms with revenue will thrive

Data from Token Terminal shows revenue positive platforms are primarily the nonfungible token (NFT) marketplaces like LooksRare and OpenSea.

Top dapps based on cumulative protocol revenue in the past 180 days. Source: Token Terminal

Aside from a few select protocols including MetaMask, Decentral Games, Axie Infinity and Ethereum Name Service, the majority of the remaining protocols with the highest revenue are decentralized finance platforms, showing that while DeFi is down, it’s not out of the game.

Fee sharing helps to lure liquidity

DeFi protocols and decentralized applications (DApps) that offer fee sharing to token holders and liquidity providers are also revenue positive.

As the bear market continues to batter prices and eliminate unprofitable and poorly managed platforms, protocols that offer token holders passive income streams have a higher chance of enduring until the next bull market begins.

Related: DeFi Summer 3.0? Uniswap overtakes Ethereum on fees, DeFi outperforms

Synthetix (SNX) makes a comeback

A good example of how fee sharing can help boost a token and DeFi protocol was recently seen with Synthetix (SNX), which made waves when it partnered with Curve Finance to create Curve pools for several of its Synths assets.

Since the cross-chain collaboration was established, the protocol revenue for Synthetix has seen a tremendous increase that coincided with a rise in the price of SNX from $1.56 to its current price at $2.59.

SNX daily price vs. protocol revenue in the past 180 days. Source: Token Terminal

The increase in revenue did not go unnoticed by crypto Twitter, which was quick to point out the rapid turnaround for the platform.

How it all plays out for Synthetix in the long run, is anyone’s guess. For now, the platform is demonstrating that generating revenue and sharing some of that revenue with token holders is one way to retain market share during a market downturn. 

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin derivatives data suggests bears will pin BTC below $21K leading in Friday’s options expiry

Bitcoin’s failure to break above $22,000 on July 8 opened room for bears to score a $100 million profit in this week’s options expiry.

Most Bitcoin (BTC) traders would rather see a sharp price correction and a subsequent recovery than agonize for multiple months below $24,000. However, BTC has been doing the opposite since June 14 and its most recent struggle is the asset’s failure to break above the $22,000 resistance. For this reason, most traders are holding back their bullish expectations until BTC posts a daily close above $24,000.

Events outside of the crypto market are the primary factor impacting investors’ perspectives on digital assets and on July 14, United States Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that inflation is “unacceptably high” and she reinforced the support of the Federal Reserve’s efforts. When questioned about the impact of rising interest rates on the economy, Yellen recognized the risk of a recession.

On the same day, JPMorgan Chase reported a 28% decline in profits versus the previous year despite recording stable revenues. The difference comes chiefly from a $1.1 billion provision for credit losses because of a “modest deterioration” in its economic outlook.

Bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 remains incredibly high and investors fear that a potential crisis in the global financial sector will inevitably lead to a retest of the $17,600 low from June 18.

S&P 500 and Bitcoin/USD 30-day correlation. Source: TradingView

The correlation metric ranges from a negative 1, meaning select markets move in opposite directions, to a positive 1, which reflects a perfect and symmetrical movement. A disparity or a lack of relationship between the two assets would be represented by 0.

The S&P 500 and Bitcoin 30-day correlation presently stands at 0.87, which has been the norm for the past four months.

Most bullish bets are above $21,000

Bitcoin’s failure to break above $22,000 on July 8 took bulls by surprise because only 2% of the call (buy) options for July 15 have been placed below $20,000. Thus, Bitcoin bears are slightly better positioned for the $250 million weekly options expiry.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for July 15. Source: CoinGlass

A broader view using the 1.15 call-to-put ratio shows more bullish bets because the call (buy) open interest stands at $134 million against the $116 million put (sell) options. Nevertheless, as Bitcoin currently stands below $21,000, most bullish bets will likely become worthless.

If Bitcoin’s price remains below $21,000 at 8:00 am UTC on July 15, only $25 million worth of these calls (buy) options will be available. This difference happens because there is no use in the right to buy Bitcoin at $21,000 if it trades below that level on expiry.

Bears could pocket a $100 million profit

Below are the three most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on July 15 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

  • Between $18,000 and $19,000: 10 calls vs. 5,200 puts. The net result favors bears by $100 million.
  • Between $19,000 and $20,000: 200 calls vs. 3,400 puts. The net result gives bears a $60 million advantage.
  • Between $20,000 and $21,000: 1,300 calls vs. 1,700 puts. The net result is balanced between bulls and bears.

This crude estimate considers the call options used in bullish bets and the put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

Related: Bitcoin fights key trendline near $20K as US dollar index hits new 20-year high

Futures markets show bears are better positioned

Bitcoin bears need to pressure the price below $19,000 on July 15 to secure a $100 million profit. On the other hand, the bulls’ best-case scenario requires a push above $20,000 to balance the scales.

The lack of appetite from professional traders in the Bitcoin CME futures indicates that bulls are less inclined to push the price higher in the short term.

With that said, the most probable scenario favors bears, and to secure this Bitcoin price only needs to trade below $21,000 going into the July 15 options expiry.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

3 key metrics suggest Bitcoin and the wider crypto market have further to fall

Traders are not as fearful as they were in June, but several metrics show the market is still standing on paper-thin support levels.

The total crypto market capitalization has fluctuated in a 17% range in the $840 billion to $980 billion zone for the past 28 days. The price movement is relatively tight considering the extreme uncertainties surrounding the recent market sell-off catalysts and the controversy surrounding Three Arrows Capital.

Total crypto market cap, USD billion. Source: TradingView

From July 4 to 11, Bitcoin (BTC) gained a modest 1.8% while Ether (ETH) price stood flat. More importantly, the total crypto market is down 50% in just three months, which means traders are giving higher odds of the descending triangle formation breaking below its $840 billion support.

Regulation uncertainties continue to weigh down investor sentiment after the European Central Bank (ECB) released a report concluding that a lack of regulatory oversight added to the recent downfall of algorithmic stablecoins. As a result, the ECB recommended supervisory and regulatory measures to contain the potential impact of stablecoins in European countries’ financial systems.

On July 5, Jon Cunliffe, the deputy governor for financial stability at the Bank of England (BoE) recommended a set of regulations to tackle the cryptocurrency ecosystem risks. Cunliffe called for a regulatory framework similar to traditional finance to shelter investors from unrecoverable losses.

A few mid-cap altcoins rallied and sentiment slightly improved

The bearish sentiment from late June dissipated according to the Fear and Greed Index, a data-driven sentiment gauge. The indicator reached a record low of 6/100 on June 19 but improved to 22/100 on July 11 as investors began to build the confidence in a market cycle bottom.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me

Below are the winners and losers from the past seven days. Notice that a handful of mid-capitalization altcoins rallied 13% or higher even though the total market capitalization increased by 2%.

Weekly winners and losers among the top 80 coins. Source: Nomics

Aave (AAVE) gained 20% as the lending protocol announced plans to launch an algorithmic stablecoin, a proposal that is subject to the community’s decentralized autonomous organization.

Polygon (MATIC) rallied 18% after projects formerly running in the Terra (LUNA) — now called Terra Classic (LUNC) — ecosystem started to migrate over to Polygon.

Chiliz (CHZ) hiked 6% after the Socios.com app announced community-related features to boost user engagement and integration with third-party approved developers.

Asia-based flow and derivatives demand is neutral and balanced

The OKX Tether (USDT) premium measures the difference between China-based peer-to-peer trades and the official U.S. dollar currency. Excessive cryptocurrency retail demand pressures the indicator above fair value at 100%. On the other hand, bearish markets likely flood Tether’s (USDT) market offer, causing a 4% or higher discount.

Tether (USDT) peer-to-peer vs. USD/CNY. Source: OKX

Tether has been trading at a 1% or higher discount in Asian peer-to-peer markets since July 4. The indicator failed to display a sentiment improvement on July 8 as the total crypto market capitalization flirted with $980 billion, the highest level in 24 days.

To confirm whether the lack of excitement is confined to the stablecoin flow, one should analyze futures markets. Perpetual contracts, also known as inverse swaps, have an embedded rate that is usually charged every eight hours. Exchanges use this fee to avoid exchange risk imbalances.

A positive funding rate indicates that longs (buyers) demand more leverage. However, the opposite situation occurs when shorts (sellers) require additional leverage, causing the funding rate to turn negative.

Accumulated perpetual futures funding rate on July 11. Source: Coinglass

Related: Analysts say Bitcoin range ‘consolidation’ is most likely until a ‘macro catalyst’ emerges

Perpetual contracts reflected a neutral sentiment as Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple (XRP) displayed mixed funding rates. Some exchanges presented a slightly negative (bearish) funding rate, but it is far from punitive. The only exception was Polkadot’s (DOT) negative 0.35% weekly rate (equal to 1.5% per month), but this is not especially concerning for most traders.

Considering the lack of buying appetite from Asia-based retail markets and the absence of leveraged futures demand, traders can conclude that the market is not comfortable betting that the $840 billion total market cap support level will hold.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin traders expect a ‘generational bottom,’ but BTC derivatives data disagrees

BTC bulls think the bottom is in, but a neutral-to-bearish price formation and the absence of a futures premium contradict their optimism.

A descending triangle pattern has been pressuring Bitcoin (BTC) for the past three weeks and while some traders cite this as a bullish reversal pattern, the $19,000 support remains a crucial level to determine the bulls’ fate. 

BTC-USD 12-hour price. Source: TradingView

Despite the apparent lack of a clear price bottom, Bitcoin derivatives metrics have significantly improved since June 30 and positive news from global asset manager VanEck may have eased traders’ sentiment.

On July 5, two retirement funds in the U.S. state of Virginia announced a $35 million commitment to VanEck’s cryptocurrency-focused investment fund.

On the same day, a Huobi exchange subsidiary received its money services business (MSB) license from the United States Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN). The Seychelles-based company stated that the license creates a foundation for expanding crypto-related business in the United States.

A bit of positive news came out on July 7 as decentralized finance staking and lending platform Celsius Network announced that it had fully repaid its outstanding debt to Maker (MKR) protocol.

Celsius is among several crypto yield platforms on the brink of insolvency after historic losses across multiple positions. Forced sales on leveraged positions by exchanges and decentralized finance (DeFi) applications accelerated the recent cryptocurrency price crash.

Currently, traders face mixed sentiment between possible contagion impacts and their optimism that the $19,000 support is gaining strength. For this reason, analyzing derivatives data is essential to understand whether investors are pricing higher odds of a market downturn.

Bitcoin futures premium flips slightly positive

Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their fixed settlement date and price difference from spot markets. However, the contracts’ biggest advantage is the lack of a fluctuating funding rate; hence, the prevalence of arbitrage desks and professional traders.

These fixed-month contracts tend to trade at a slight premium to spot markets as sellers request more money to withhold settlement longer. This situation is technically known as “contango” and is not exclusive to crypto markets. Thus, futures should trade at a 5% to 10% annualized premium in healthy markets.

Bitcoin 3-month futures’ annualized premium. Source: Laevitas

Bitcoin annualized futures’ premium went negative on June 28, indicating low demand from leverage buyers. Yet, the bearish structure did not hold for long as the indicator shifted to the positive area on July 4.

Related: Genesis Trading CEO confirms 3AC exposure, parent company helps plug losses

Option traders remain skeptical of each price pump

To exclude externalities specific to the Bitcoin futures instrument, traders must also analyze the options markets. For instance, the 25% delta skew shows when arbitrage desks are overcharging for upside or downside protection.

Options traders give higher odds for a price increase during bullish markets, causing the skew indicator to fall below -12%. Meanwhile, a market’s generalized fear sentiment induces a 12% or higher positive skew.

Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas

June 18 marked the highest-ever record 30-day delta skew, typical of extremely bearish markets. Still, the current 16% skew level shows investors’ reluctance to provide downside protection, a fact reflected by the overcharging for put options.

Contagion is still a threat that adds pressure across the market

It’s tough to call whether $17,580 was the cycle low, but some traders attribute the movement to Three Arrows Capital’s failure to meet its margin calls.

Some traders are calling for a “generational bottom,” but there is still a long way before investors flip bullish as Bitcoin remains locked in a descending triangle formation.

From one side, Bitcoin derivatives metrics show modest improvement since June 30. On the other hand, investors remain suspicious of further contagion from such an important venture capital and crypto asset manager.

Sometimes the best trade is to wait for a clearer market structure and avoid leverage at all costs, regardless of your certainty of a cycle bottom.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

With the bear market in full throttle, crypto derivatives retain their popularity

“Derivatives provide opportunities to protect their portfolios during times of heightened market volatility,” says Emerson Li, brand lead at BingX.

The 2022 cryptocurrency bear market has been the worst on record as most Bitcoin traders are underwater and continue to sell at a loss. In response to the rapid decline of token prices, some investors have fled to safe-haven assets; some have exited the market completely and others have perplexingly turned to the enigmatic market of crypto derivatives. 

With regards to this, Cointelegraph spoke to BingX’s brand lead Emerson Li. BingX is a Singaporean social-based cryptocurrency exchange known for its leaderboards where users can compete with others for returns on investments as well as share ideas among their followers. The exchange processed around $319 million in trading volume within the past 24 hours, mainly consisting of derivates. Regarding the recent market downturn, here’s what Li had to say:

“BingX’s users are also proliferating; compared with Q1 2022, Users number increased by 70% in the second quarter, and transaction volumes doubling since this round of slumps. We believe that its demand for derivatives is still increasing because it allows users to profit from falling prices, a feature that other products do not have.”

During bear markets, traders can purchase derivatives known as put options to either hedge their positions or speculate that the value of underlying tokens will fall. While this can be done by simply shorting the coin, violent and periodic bear market rallies can lead to theoretically infinite losses on one’s short position. In addition, a lack of liquidity for borrowing coins to short may lead to exchanges charging high-interest rates on one’s positions. On the other hand, the put buyer’s losses are theoretically limited to the premium they paid for the derivative, and there are no additional interest fees. 

Li went on to explain that BingX is also seeing a sharp increase in deposits as of late. “Since high market volatility is suitable for the derivatives market, we see more users participating in such transactions and stimulating more demand for deposits.”

Money also appears to be flowing back to CeFi products from DeFi protocols. “For high-risk products such as DeFi staking, we believe traders have panicked under the recent market, affected by the Terra (LUNA) — since renamed Terra Classic (LUNC) — affair and the problems with many DeFi protocols. Users’ risk appetite has decreased, and demand has declined,” said Li. 

Indeed, dYdX, a decentralized crypto exchange known for its margin and perpetual contract products, saw its weekly trading volume fall approximately 90% from the $12.5 billion witnessed from Oct 24 to Oct 30 last year. However, the trading volume is still several magnitudes higher than one year ago, partly due to the aforementioned risk-hedging tailwind. 

Risk-wise, it would appear that the worst is over as a spike in liquidations on dYdX, mainly in the Ethereum and Bitcoin markets, has dissipated since mid-June. Experts from Glassnode noted tokens held in wallet addresses by both new investors and crypto whales had been increasing meaningfully amid the sell-off. 

Bitcoin derivatives data shows no ‘bottom’ in sight as traders avoid leveraged long positions

Is it time to be greedy? Experienced market makers and arbitrage desks have turned strongly risk-averse as BTC price dropped to $22,600.

Bitcoin (BTC) lost the $28,000 support on June 12 following worsening macroeconomic conditions. The United States Treasury 2-year note yield closed on June 10 at 3.10%, its highest level since December 2007. This shows that traders are demanding higher rates to hold their debt instruments and expect inflation to remain a persistent challenge.

Louis S. Barnes, a senior loan officer at Cherry Creek, stated that as the United States reported its highest inflation in 40 years, the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) markets had zero buyers. Barnes added:

“Stocks are down 2% today [June 10], but would be down a hell of a lot more if considering what a full-stop to housing will mean.”

MicroStrategy and Celsius leverage use raised alarms

Bitcoin’s sell-off is adding more pressure to the cryptocurrency market and various media are discussing whether the U.S. Nasdaq-listed analytics and business intelligence company MicroStrategy and its $205 million Bitcoin-collateralized loan with Silvergate Bank will add to the current crypto collapse. The interest-only loan was issued on March 29, 2022, and secured by Bitcoin, which is held in a mutually authorized custodian’s account.

As stated by Microstrategy’s earnings call by chief financial officer Phong Le on May 3, if Bitcoin plummeted to $21,000, an additional amount of margin would be required. However, on May 10, Michael Saylor clarified that the entire 115,109 BTC position could be pledged, reducing the liquidation to $3,562.

Lastly, Crypto staking and lending platform Celsius suspended all network withdrawals on June 13. Speculations of insolvency quickly emerged as the project moved massive amounts of wBTC and Ether (ETH) to avoid liquidation at Aave (AAVE), a popular staking and lending platform.

Celsius reported surpassing $20 billion in assets under management in August 2021, which was ideally more than enough to cause a doomsday scenario. While there is no way to determine how this liquidity crisis will unfold, the event caught Bitcoin’s investors at the worst possible moment.

Bitcoin futures metrics are near bearish territory

Bitcoin’s futures market premium, the primary derivatives metric, briefly moved to the negative area on June 13. The metric compares longer-term futures contracts and the traditional spot market price.

These fixed-calendar contracts usually trade at a slight premium, indicating that sellers request more money to withhold settlement for longer. As a result, the three-month futures should trade at a 4% to 10% annualized premium in healthy markets, a situation known as contango.

Whenever that indicator fades or turns negative (backwardation), it is an alarming red flag because it indicates that bearish sentiment is present.

Bitcoin 3-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

While the futures premium had already been below the 4% threshold during the past nine weeks, it managed to sustain a moderate premium until June 13. While the current 1% premium might seem optimistic, it is the lowest level since April 30 and sits at the edge of a generalized bearish sentiment.

An unhealthy derivatives market is an ominous sign

Traders should analyze Bitcoin’s options pricing to further prove that the crypto market structure has deteriorated. For example, the 25% delta skew compares similar call (buy) and put (sell) options. This metric will turn positive when fear is prevalent because the protective put options premium is higher than similar risk call options.

The opposite holds when greed is the prevalent mood, which causes the 25% delta skew indicator to shift to the negative area.

Deribit 30-day Bitcoin options 25% delta skew. Source: laevitas.ch

Readings between negative 8% and positive 8% are usually deemed neutral, but the 26.6 peak on June 13 was the highest reading ever registered. This aversion to pricing downside risks is unusual even for March 2020, when oil futures plunged to the negative side for the first time in history and Bitcoin crashed below $4,000.

The main message from Bitcoin derivatives markets is that professional traders are unwilling to add leverage long positions despite the extremely low cost. Furthermore, the absurd price gap for put (sell) options pricing shows that the June 13 crash to $22,600 caught experienced arbitrage desks and market markers by surprise.

For those aiming to “buy the dip” or “catch a falling knife,” a clear bottom will only be formed once derivatives metrics imply that the market structure has improved. That will require the BTC futures’ premium to reestablish the 4% level and options markets to find a more balanced risk assessment as the 25% delta skew returns to 10% or lower.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

The total crypto market cap drops under $1.2T, but data show traders are less inclined to sell

An improving Tether discount in Asian markets and positive futures premiums for BTC and ETH suggest a slight recovery is in the making.

The total crypto market capitalization has been trading in a descending channel for the past 29 days and currently displays support at the $1.17 trillion level. In the past seven days, Bitcoin (BTC) presented a modest 2% drop and Ether (ETH) faced a 5% correction.

Total crypto market cap, USD billion. Source: TradingView

The June 10 consumer price index (CPI) report showed an 8.6% year-on-year increase and crypto and stock markets immediately felt the impact. Still, it’s not certain whether the figure will convince the United States Federal Reserve to hesitate in future interest rate hikes.

Mid-cap altcoins dropped further, sentiment is still bearish

The generalized bearish sentiment caused by weak macroeconomic data and uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve’s ability to curb inflation has severely impacted crypto markets.

The Fear and Greed Index hit 11/100 on June 9, and the data-driven sentiment gauge has been below 20 since May 8.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: alternative.me

This persistent “extreme fear” reading indicates that investors are worried, but, at the same time, it supposedly presents a buying opportunity.

Below are the winners and losers from the past seven days. While the two leading cryptocurrencies presented modest losses, a handful of mid-capitalization altcoins declined by 14% or more.

Weekly winners and losers among the top 80 coins. Source: Nomics

Helium’s (HNT) community approved the HIP-51 proposal, covering the economic and technical constructions required to support new users, devices and different types of networks, including cellular, VPN and WiFi.

Chainlink (LINK) rallied 22% after the developers released a revamped Chainlink 2.0 roadmap, including native token staking.

Theta Token (THETA) gained 9.7% as the network announced livestream support using API technology which enabled instant and easy connection to apps and websites.

WAVES lost 28% after the $1,000 daily withdrawal limit for stablecoins in Vires Finance was implemented to avoid further pressure on the Neutrino Protocol Stablecoin (USDN).

Data shows traders are less inclined to sell at the current levels

The OKX Tether (USDT) premium is a good gauge of China-based retail crypto trader demand. It measures the difference between China-based peer-to-peer (P2P) trades and the United States dollar.

Excessive buying demand tends to pressure the indicator above fair value at 100%, and during bearish markets, Tether’s market offer is flooded and causes a 4% or higher discount.

Tether (USDT) peer-to-peer vs. USD/CNY. Source: OKX

On May 31, the Tether price in Asian peer-to-peer markets entered a 4% discount, signaling intense retail selling pressure. Curiously, the situation improved on June 10 after the indicator moved to a 1.5% discount. Despite remaining negative, the metric shows investors’ willingness to buy the dip as the total crypto capitalization dropped below $1.2 trillion.

To exclude externalities specific to the Tether instrument, traders must also analyze the cryptos futures markets. Perpetual contracts, also known as inverse swaps, have an embedded rate that is usually charged every eight hours. Exchanges use this fee to avoid exchange risk imbalances.

A positive funding rate indicates that longs (buyers) demand more leverage. However, the opposite situation occurs when shorts (sellers) require additional leverage, causing the funding rate to turn negative.

Accumulated perpetual futures funding rate on June 10. Source: Coinglass

Perpetual contracts reflected mixed sentiment after Bitcoin and Ether held a slightly positive (bullish) funding rate, but altcoin rates were negative. For example, BNB’s negative 0.20% weekly rate equals 0.8% per month, which is generally not a concern for derivatives traders.

Any recovery depends on macroeconomic data stabilizing

According to derivatives and trading indicators, investors are less inclined to reduce their positions at current levels, as shown by the modest improvement in the Tether premium.

The positive funding rate for Bitcoin and Ether futures displays traders’ growing appetite for leveraged long positions as the total crypto capitalization broke below $1.2 trillion.

Unless the traditional markets and macroeconomic scenario deteriorates, there is reason to believe crypto investors are expecting a positive price move soon.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin derivatives data forecasts sub-$30K BTC price heading into Friday’s $800M options expiry

Bulls placed too much hope on $32,000 flipping to support, an error that is bound to show by Friday’s $800 million BTC options expiry.

Bitcoin (BTC) briefly broke above $32,000 on May 31, but the excitement lasted less than four hours after the resistance level proved to be tougher than expected. The $32,300 level represented a 20% increase from the May 12 swing low at $27,000 and it provided the necessary hope for bulls to buy some $34,000 and higher call options.

The fleeting optimism reverted to a sellers’ market on June 1 after BTC dumped 7.6% in less than six hours and pinned the price below $30,000. The negative move coincided with the United States Federal Reserve starting the process of scaling down its $9 trillion balance sheet.

On June 2, former BitMEX exchange CEO Arthur Hayes argued that the Bitcoin bottom in May could have been a strong signal. Using on-chain data, Hayes predicts strong support at $25,000, given that $69,000 marked this cycle’s all-time high, a 64% drawdown.

Even though analysts might issue rosy price predictions, the threat of regulation continues to cap investor optimism and another blow came on June 2 when the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed suit against Gemini Trust Co for alleged misleading statements in 2017 regarding the self-certification evaluation of a Bitcoin futures contract.

On June 7, a bill to ban digital assets as payment was introduced in the Russian parliament. The bill loosely defines digital financial assets as “electronic platforms,” which can be recognized as the subjects of the national payment system and obliged to submit to the central bank registry.

Bulls placed their bets at $32,000 and above

The open interest for the June 10 options expiry is $800 million but the actual figure will be much lower since bulls were overly-optimistic. These traders might have been fooled by the short-lived pump to $32,000 on May 31 because their bets for Friday’s options expiry extend up to $50,000.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for June 10. Source: CoinGlass

The 0.94 call-to-put ratio shows the balance between the $390 million call (buy) open interest and the $410 million put (sell) options. Currently, Bitcoin stands near $30,000, meaning most bullish bets are likely to become worthless.

If Bitcoin’s price moves below $30,000 at 8:00 am UTC on June 10, only $20 million worth of these call (buy) options will be available. This difference happens because a right to buy Bitcoin at $30,000 is useless if BTC trades below that level on expiry.

Bears aim for sub-$29,000 to profit $205 million

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on June 10 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

  • Between $28,000 and $29,000: 50 calls vs. 7,400 puts. The net result favors the put (bear) instruments by $205 million.
  • Between $29,000 and $30,000: 700 calls vs. 5,500 puts. The net result favors bears by $140 million.
  • Between $30,000 and $32,000: 3,700 calls vs. 3,400 puts. The net result is balanced between bulls and bears.
  • Between $32,000 and $33,000: 7,700 calls vs. 750 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $220 million.

This crude estimate considers the put options used in bearish bets and the call options exclusively in neutral-to-bullish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

For example, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining positive exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price, but unfortunately, there’s no easy way to estimate this effect.

Related: ‘Can it get any easier?’ Bitcoin whales dictate when to buy and sell BTC

Bulls will try to pin BTC above $30,000

Bitcoin bulls need to push the price above $30,000 on June 10 to avoid a $140 million loss. On the other hand, the bears’ best case scenario requires a pressure below $29,000 to maximize their gains.

Bitcoin bulls just had $200 million leverage long positions liquidated on June 6, so they should have less margin required to drive the price higher. With this said, bears will undoubtedly try to suppress BTC below $30,000 ahead of the June 10 options expiry.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin bears have plenty of reasons to hold BTC price below $32,000

Regulatory pressure and macroeconomic uncertainty continue to pin traders’ sentiment and BTC price under $32,000.

Since May 10, the Bitcoin (BTC) chart shows a relatively tight range of price movement and the cryptocurrency has failed to break the $32,000 resistance on multiple occasions.

BTC-USD 12-hour price at Coinbase. Source: TradingView

The choppy trading partially reflects the uncertainty of the stock market as the S&P 500 Index ranged from 3,900 to 4,180 in the same period. On one side, there has been economic growth in the Eurozone where the gross domestic product grew 5.1% year over year. On the other, inflation continues to soar, reaching 9% in the United Kingdom.

Further adding to Bitcoin’s volatility was the digital assets regulatory framework proposal introduced to the U.S. Senate on June 7. The 69-page bipartisan bill is supported by Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming and Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York and it addresses the CFTC’s authority over applicable digital asset spot markets.

On June 3, South Korea’s Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) began an inquiry with 157 payment gateway services that work with digital assets. Previously, on May 24, South Korean officials opened an investigation against Do Kwon, the primary figure in the Terra incident.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) also broke out an investigation against Binance Holdings on June 6. Binance is the world’s largest crypto exchange in volume terms and the SEC is evaluating whether the BNB token initial coin offering violated securities rules.

On June 6, IRA Financial Trust, a platform providing self-directed digital asset retirement and pension accounts, filed a lawsuit against Gemini cryptocurrency exchange and claimed that a Feb. 8 breach led to a $36 million loss in crypto assets from customer accounts under Gemini’s custody.

Let’s look at Bitcoin’s futures data to understand how professional traders are positioned, including whales and market makers.

Derivatives metrics reflect investors’ bearish expectations

Traders should analyze Bitcoin futures market data to understand how professional traders are positioned. The quarterly contracts are experienced traders’ preferred instrument to avoid the perpetual futures’ fluctuating funding rate.

The basis indicator measures the difference between longer-term futures contracts and the current spot market levels. The Bitcoin futures annualized premium should run between 5% to 10% to compensate traders for “locking in” the money for two to three months until the contract expiry.

Bitcoin 3-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas

Bitcoin’s futures premium has been below 4% since April 12, a reading typical of bearish markets. Even more concerning is that the last time these professional traders were bullish was over six months ago when the metric surpassed the 10% threshold.

To exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument, traders must also analyze the Bitcoin options markets. The 25% delta skew is a telling sign for when Bitcoin market makers and arbitrage desks are overcharging for upside or downside protection.

During bullish markets, options investors give higher odds for a price pump, causing the skew indicator to move below negative 12%. On the other hand, a bear market’s generalized panic induces a positive 12% or higher skew.

Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas

The 30-day delta skew has ranged from 12.5% to 23% between June 1 and 7, which signals options traders are pricing higher odds of a bearish movement. Still, it shows a moderate sentiment improvement from the previous couple of weeks.

Cryptocurrency regulation and weak economic numbers are clearly weighing on investor sentiment and derivatives data shows professional Bitcoin traders avoiding leveraged long positions, plus they are reluctant to take downside-risk.

At the moment, it’s clear that bears are comfortable with setting $32,000 as a resistance level and repeat drops to the $28,200 level are likely to continue.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.