Crypto Market

Bitcoin price indicator that marked 2015 and 2018 bottoms is flashing

This week, Bitcoin’s 150-day EMA is set to close below its 471-day EMA for only the third time in history.

Bitcoin (BTC) could undergo a massive price recovery in the coming months, based on an indicator that marked the 2015 and 2018 bear market bottoms.

What’s the Bitcoin Pi Cycle bottom indicator?

Dubbed “Pi Cycle bottom ,” the indicator comprises a 471-day simple moving average (SMA) and a 150-period exponential moving average (EMA). Furthermore, the 471-day SMA is multiplied by 0.745; the outcome is pitted against the 150-day EMA to predict the underlying market’s bottom.

Notably, each time the 150-period EMA has fallen below the 471-period SMA, it has marked the end of a Bitcoin bear market.

For instance, in 2015, the crossover coincided with Bitcoin bottoming out near $160 in January 2015, followed by an almost 12,000% bull run toward $20,000 in December 2017.

*BTC/USD weekly price chart featuring ‘pi cycle bottom’ indicator. Source: TradingView*

Similarly, the second 150-471 MA crossover in history marked the end of the 2018 bear cycle. It also followed a 2,000% price rally — from nearly $3,200 in December 2018 to $69,000 in November 2021.

Only the third time in history

This week, Bitcoin’s 150-day EMA (at $32,332 as of July 12) is set to close below its 471-day EMA (at $32,208), thus logging the third Pi Cycle bottom in its history.

*BTC/USD weekly price chart featuring the next potential cycle bottom. Source: TradingView*

The crossover appears as Bitcoin wobbles around $20,000, after a 75%-plus price correction from its peak level of $69,000.

The BTC/USD pair has been flirting with the level for almost a month, with the latest MLIV Pulse survey noting that its price has more possibility to fall toward $10,000 than rebound toward $30,000.

The fears emerge due to an ongoing crypto market carnage led by the failure of several high-profile companies.

*MLIV Pulse Survey results on Bitcoin’s next trend. Source: Bloomberg*

Meanwhile, hawkish central bank policies that focus on removing excess cash from the economy have also spooked investors.

Nevertheless, Bitcoin could rebound to at least $30,000 if the given bottom fractal plays out. The interim upside target coincides with the 0.236 Fib line of the Fibonacci retracement graph drawn from the $69,000-swing high to the $17,000-swing low, as shown in the chart above.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

What bear market? This token is quietly making new highs, up 300% against Bitcoin in 2022

Unus Sed Leo price technicals, however, suggest that the uptrend could correct in H2 2022.

Unus Sed Leo (LEO) has not only survived the crypto market bloodbath in the first half of 2022 but has actually posted major gains, bucking the big crypto crash.

LEO beats crypto kingpin Bitcoin

LEO, a utility token used across the iFinex ecosystem, finished the first half of 2022 against Bitcoin at 32,793 satoshis, up almost 300%.

The token also rallied 55% against the U.S. dollar in the same period, hitting $5.80 for the first time since February 2022. In contrast, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), the top two crypto assets by market cap, fell by over 60% and 70%, respectively.

*Top-ranking crypto assets and their performances per timeframes. Source: Messari*

That has made it the best-performing crypto asset in the top ranks so far into 2022.

What’s driving LEO price higher?

The crypto market wiped more than $2 trillion off its valuation in the first half of 2022, led by rate hikes, the collapse of Terra (LUNA) — now officially Terra Classic (LUNC), and systemic insolvency troubles across leading cryptocurrency lending platforms and hedge funds .

*LEO/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

LEO’s price also suffered a 25% decline after hitting its all-time high of $8.14 in February 2022. Nevertheless, it fared better than the rest of the crypto market, which fell nearly 60% in the same period.

The reason behind this outlier token could be its starkly different attributes compared to other digital assets.

IFinex, the parent company of Bitfinex, launched LEO in 2018 in a private sale round to raise $1 billion. In return, the firm committed to employing 27% of its revenues from the previous month to buy back LEO until all tokens are removed from circulation.

Also, iFinex pledged to buy back LEO tokens using funds it had lost during the August 2016 Bitfinex hack.

In February 2022, the U.S. Department of Justice recovered 94,000 BTC out of 119,754 BTC. That coincided with LEO rallying to its record highs in both Bitcoin and the dollar-based markets.

Overheated rally?

LEO’s run-up against Bitcoin risks exhaustion due to its price’s growing divergence with momentum.

In detail, LEO’s price has been making higher lows while its daily relative strength index (RSI) prints lower highs. As a rule of technical analysis, this divergence shows a lack of upside conviction among traders.

The RSI is also above 70, a traditionally “overbought” area and a sell indicator.

LEO now maintains its bullish bias while holding above its interim support level at 26,220 sats, coinciding with the 0.236 Fib line of the Fibonacci retracement graph drawn from 4,382-swing low to 32,965-swing high.

A decisive close below 26,220 sats could have LEO eye a run-down toward the 38.2 Fib line near 22,046 sats, down 25% from Jul’s price.

Interestingly, the level is near another support level — the 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave in the chart above).

LEO/USD bearish rejection

LEO’s ongoing price run-up had it briefly close above a critical resistance level at around $6.24, as shown in the chart below.

*LEO/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

The level was instrumental in capping the token’s upside attempts between February and April earlier this year. It again prompted traders to secure profits on July 1, leaving LEO with a large upside wick and thus hinting at bearish rejection .

LEO’s recent price trends are full of bearish rejection candles, including its 57% intraday price rally on Feb. 8 that preceded a 28.5% correction by the end of that quarter.

Conversely, the token’s bullish rejection candle on June 18 resulted in a 50% price recovery, as discussed above.

If the given fractal plays out, then LEO will risk a price reversal to its interim support level of $5.52, which, coincides with the token’s 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave). That would mean a modest 9%-10% decline from July 1’s price.

But if the support fails to hold, as it had in late April, LEO price then risks testing its 200-day EMA (the blue wave) near $5, a 17% decline overall.

Avalanche price eyes 30% jump in June with AVAX’s classic bullish reversal pattern

But AVAX price is also forming a potential descending triangle that can spoil the upside chances.

Avalanche’s AVAX token shows signs of continuing its ongoing rebound move as it paints a classic bullish reversal pattern.

AVAX price to $35?

Dubbed a “double bottom,” the pattern appears when the price establishes a support level, rebounds, corrects after finding a resistance level, pulls back toward the previous support and bounces back toward the resistance level to pursue a breakout.

Since May 27, AVAX’s price trends appear like those typically witnessed during the double bottom formation. Specifically, the AVAX/USD pair on the four-hour chart has bounced twice after testing the same support level near $22.25 and now eyes a breakout above its resistance level — also called “neckline” — near $27.50.

*AVAX/USD four-hour price chart with “double bottom” setup. Source: TradingView*

If AVAX breaks above $27.50 decisively, and preferably in trading volumes, then the upside target would be at length equal to the maximum distance between the double bottom’s support and neckline levels.

That would put the Avalanche token en route toward $35, up 30% from June’s price.

Conflicting bearish scenario

AVAX currently trades almost 82% below its record peak of around $151, established in November 2021. During its correction, the AVAX/USD pair formed multiple consolidation channels but broke out of them to extend its downtrend further, which could spoil the bullish scenario outlined above.

Zooming out to the daily timeframe, AVAX has been consolidating inside a similar channel since May 2022, fluctuating between falling trendline resistance and horizontal trendline support. When placed together, these trendlines form a “descending triangle ,” which traditional analysts consider a continuation pattern.

*AVAX/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

Therefore, AVAX risks breaking out of the descending triangle in the coming days, with its bias skewed to the downside. Meanwhile, in a “perfect” scenario, the token will fall by as much as the descending triangle’s height, when measured from the breakout point.

That puts AVAX’s descending triangle near $13.25, almost 50% below June 6’s price.