Crypto Analysis

XRP price: ‘sell the news’ moment nears after crypto-leading 20% weekly gain

XRP whales have been accumulating since February with only days remaining until the SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit could reach its potential conclusion.

XRP (XRP) price is currently outperforming all other major cryptocurrencies as of March 27, rising over 20% in the past seven days.

XRP/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

XRP accumulation ahead of SEC vs. Ripple ruling

XRP has seen steady gains over the past seven days as the ongoing legal quandary between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to conclude by the end of March.

Meanwhile, the supply of XRP held by addresses with a balance between 10 million and 100 million tokens has risen by over 1% since February. That coincides with a 0.75% drop in the XRP supply held by the 1 million-10 million address cohort.

XRP balance in addresses holding between 1,000 and 100 million tokens. Source: Santiment

The addresses holding between 1,000 and 1 million XRP also increased their token holdings in the same period. That shows the XRP whales stacked up more tokens in the days leading up to the ruling on SEC vs. Ripple’s so-called summary judgment.

Multiple observers, including legal expert John Deaton, see Ripple winning the case, arguing that the SEC may have failed to give the company a “fair notice” before suing it for committing securities fraud. 

In recent months, Analisa Torres, the federal judge overseeing the lawsuit, has also favored Ripple on various motions. For instance, she has approved Ripple’s demand that the SEC makes its internal emails and documents regarding cryptocurrencies public, which may prove that the regulator unfairly targeted the company.

25% XRP price pullback in April?

From a technical perspective, the XRP/USD rally has brought the pair near a resistance confluence zone, which may lead to bearish reversal in the coming weeks.

The confluence comprises of a multi-year descending trendline (black), a 200-3D exponential moving average (200-3D EMA; the blue wave) and a support-turned-resistance horizontal level at around $0.50 (purple).

XRP/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

In addition, XRP’s three-day relative strength index (RSI) eyes a close above its overbought threshold of 70, adding to the bearish case for April. 

Related: Will BTC ditch the bear market? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

In the case of a pullback, the XRP price’s next downside target appears at its multi-month ascending trendline support (black) around $0.35, down about 25% from current price levels.

On the other hand, a breakout above the descending trendline will have XRP price eyeing $0.60 as the next upside target.

This level has served as support in December 2021 and January 2022 — and as resistance in the September-October 2022 session. It is also the target of a prevailing bull pennant structure.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

3 signs Axie Infinity price risks giving up its 135% gains in January

AXS price has formed a “gravestone” doji on its daily chart that coupled with its recent token unlock event hint at a potential bearish reversal ahead.

Axie Infinity (AXS) has rallied 135% month-to-date to reach approximately $14 on Jan. 23, its highest level in two months. Nonetheless, the AXS/USD pair could suffer major losses in the coming weeks owing to a flurry of negative technical and fundamental indicators.

Axie Infinity price prints “gravestone” doji

The AXS price formed a “gravestone doji” candlestick on Jan. 23, which technical analysts view as a bearish reversal pattern.

A gravestone doji appears when an asset’s opening, closing, and the lowest price comes to be nearly identical except for the highest price, as shown in the chart below. The long upper wick shows that the bears pared all of the gains printed by the candle during the given session.

AXS/USD daily price chart featuring gravestone doji. Source: TradingView

AXS seems to have been forming a similar candlestick pattern as of Jan. 23, with bears rejecting its advance above the $14 price level, triggering a 10%-plus intraday price drop.

In addition, the rejection came as the AXS/USD pair’s relative strength index (RSI) crossed into overbought territory, coinciding with its price testi the 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA; the blue wave in the chart above), which has served as resistance in January 2022 and April 2022.

These three factors have raised AXS’s possibility of undergoing a price correction in the coming weeks. The nearest downside target for AXS comes to be near its 50-day EMA (the red wave) at around $8, or a 40% drop by March.

Axie Infinity total supply expands 1.8%

From a fundamental perspective, the Axie Infinity price could fall in the coming weeks due to its latest supply unlock.

Related: Axie Infinity is toxic for crypto gaming

On Jan. 23, AXS’s circulating supply grew by 4.8 million, about 1.8% of its total supply of 270 million, after a scheduled vested token unlock. Theoretically, more supply could push prices lower if demand does not increase.

AXS price bullish hopes remain

On larger-timeframe charts, however, AXS appears to have formed a falling wedge, which analysts treat as a bullish reversal pattern.

AXS/USD three-day price chart featuring falling wedge pattern. Source: TradingView

AXS’s ongoing recovery run has resulted in its price breaking out of the wedge that’s been in place since May 2022.

In theory, such a move could mean that the price could rise by as much as the the wedge’s maximum height. In other words, the bullish target for AXS price is now around $22.50, up nearly 70% from current prices. 

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Public Bitcoin miners’ hash rate is booming — But is it actually bearish for BTC price?

Efforts to keep Bitcoin mining operations afloat may end up pushing the spot BTC price even lower.

The share of the Bitcoin (BTC) network controlled by publicly held mining companies could grow to 40% by mid-2023, according to a new report by Hashrate Index. But this could bring more stress to an already bearish BTC market.

Public Bitcoin miners’ hash rate jumps 295% in a year

The outlook appeared after assessing the hash rate performance of Core Scientific, Marathon Digital Holdings, Riot Blockchain and other public miners over the last 12 months. Notably, these firms increased their hashing capacity from 15 exahashes per second a year ago to 58 EH/s in October 2022 — a 295% increase.

Bitcoin mining public vs. private hash rate performance. Source: Hashrate Index

In comparison, the hash rate of private miners increased from 134 EH/s to 177 EH/s in the same period — a 58% growth.

“The driving force for the public miners’ rapid capacity increases is that they could access cheap capital during the bull market of 2021,” explained Jaran Mellerud, a Bitcoin mining analyst and the author of the Hashrate Index report.

He added that public miners used the money to purchase massive mining rigs. As a result, these firms have tens of thousands of Bitcoin mining rigs in storage, waiting to be plugged in, while awaiting deliveries of more rigs.

Thus, the Bitcoin hash rate generated by public miners could continue to increase substantially as more and more new machines come online. 

On the other hand, private miners couldn’t access the capital to purchase mining rigs. So, the growth of their hash rate contributions may remain slower in comparison, argued Mellerud.

Stressed miners could boost Bitcoin sell-off risks

In 2022, Bitcoin miners, in general, have been battered by declining BTC prices, rising energy costs, regulation and growing competition. Public mining firms have rushed to raise capital by issuing additional shares or by taking on more debt, resulting in massive declines in their stock prices.

For instance, the Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF, which tracks several major public miners, has plunged 75% since its launch in February.

Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

Another unpopular alternative to raising capital is selling Bitcoin at lower prices. For instance, Core Scientific has dumped 85% of its Bitcoin holdings since the end of March, according to its August update.

Related: Kazakhstan among top 3 Bitcoin mining destinations after US and China

The same period witnessed BTC’s price decline by 60% to around $19,500 per coin. In other words, a growing hash rate may boost miners’ need to sell Bitcoin for cash to keep their operations running.

“Its an absolute bloodbath,” wrote Marty Bent, founder of Bitcoin media company TFTC, adding:

“Bitcoin miners are in a world of hurt right now and the likely outcome is a wave of failures in the coming months as hashrate continues to pump, the price remains flat and as energy prices continue to rise.”

BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

Meanwhile, Mellerud said that many public miners will not be able to handle a decline in cash flows, resulting in bankruptcies. As a result, their mining rigs could be auctioned off to private miners.

Conversely, public miners’ decisions to increase their capacity may pay off if Bitcoin’s price undergoes a decisive bullish reversal. As Cointelegraph reported, signs of a potential market bottom are already emerging, which would provide relief to miners struggling at current prices.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.