CPI

BTC price clears $41K as Bitcoin digests US macro data on Fed FOMC day

Bitcoin traders eye BTC price levels of interest as the U.S. PPI preserves the declining inflation narrative ahead of the Fed’s rates decision.

Bitcoin (BTC) recovered above $41,000 at the Dec. 13 Wall Street open as eyes focused on the United States Federal Reserve.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price strength gaining momentum on the latest U.S. macro data releases.

November’s Producer Price Index (PPI) print came in below expectations, further bolstering the extant narrative of declining inflation. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, while less encouraging, did not induce fresh pain for risk assets.

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Bitcoin price rivals 10-month high as CPI data beats expectations

BTC price performance gets a fresh boost from strong U.S. inflation data, with Bitcoin bulls eyeing a clean trend breakout.

Bitcoin (BTC) spiked higher prior to the April 12 Wall Street open as United States inflation data outperformed market forecasts.

BTC/USD 1-minute candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

CPI offers “great inflation print” for risk-on bulls

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it neared new 10-month highs on Bitstamp.

Widely predicted volatility entered immediately following the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March. This broadly conformed to expectations, with the year-on-year increase undercutting assumptions by 0.2%.

“The all items index increased 5.0 percent for the 12 months ending March; this was the smallest 12-month increase since the period ending May 2021,” an accompanying press release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed.

This was nonetheless enough to spark some optimistic upside on crypto markets ahead of the Wall Street open, with potential further upside in line with equities to come.

Markets commentator Tedtalksmacro called the result a “great inflation print for the bulls.”

With CPI known as a classic catalyst for “fakeout” price action, however, market participants urged caution.

Popular analytics resource Skew predicted that the “market will hunt liquidity like every other CPI day,” with significant moves apt to spark liquidations on exchanges.

“CPI overall says slowing inflation CPI core says sticky inflationary conditions still,” a further post on Twitter commented about the likely U.S. macroeconomic policy path going forward.

“Probably one more hike. May data needs to confirm interest rate hike shock in order the FED to actually consider a pause in the hiking cycle.”

Market expectations on rate hikes moved only modestly despite the improvement in CPI data.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, there remained a 65% chance of a hike taking place at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in three weeks’ time, down from 75% before the release.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

Bitcoin bulls gain confidence in long-term trend

The latest BTC price action, meanwhile, further bolstered longer-timeframe bets that Bitcoin had conducted a break of its bear market.

Related: Bitcoin holds $30K, but some pro traders are skeptical about BTC price continuation

Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital noted that BTC/USD was continuing to build on its impressive daily close from April 11, which had taken it above a major resistance trendline.

“BTC is showing initial signs of a successful retest of the Higher High resistance into new support,” his latest analysis stated.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/Twitter

Related: Crypto audits and bug bounties are broken: Here’s how to fix them

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin price teases $30K breakdown ahead of US CPI, FOMC minutes

BTC price action becomes less sure of itself as a slew of U.S. macro data promises volatility across Bitcoin and risk assets.

Bitcoin (BTC) traced $30,000 on April 12 as looming United States macroeconomic data heightened nerves.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Analyst warns markets “discounting significance” of CPI

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hovering near the significant psychological level after overnight lows of $29,875 on Bitstamp.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March is due at 2.30 pm Eastern Time, followed by minutes from last month’s meeting of the Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), at which policymakers confirmed a 0.25% interest rate hike.

“Today is US CPI day, and for the first time in a long while, it feels like the market is discounting the significance of this event…,” analytics account Tedtalksmacro wrote in part of Twitter commentary.

“Trader positioning leading into today is nowhere near as conservative/risk-off as we typically would observe.”

Forecast at 5.2% year-on-year versus 6% a month ago, CPI presents a mixed bag — Fed policy remains hawkwish, while pressure from the recent banking crisis has markets unsure as to what further policy tightening is feasible.

Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows expectations of rate hikes continuing in May, but potentially pausing thereafter.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

“We are keeping in mind that the Fed is still largely data dependent and has warned against taking its foot off the pedal early,” trading firm QCP Capital wrote in a market update released on the day.

“Markets are 75% priced for a 25bps hike in May. Therefore this number carries great importance either way. A lower than expected print will likely take off the hike and lead to a risk asset rally.”

Related: Crypto audits and bug bounties are broken: Here’s how to fix them

QCP continued that the release of the FOMC minutes may have an equally influential impact on cryptoassets thanks to the divergence of the Fed’s position versus market sentiment.

“Investors will closely scrutinize the reasons for the Fed’s downshifting and what they will keep an eye on in terms of the banking sector, liquidity, and overall market performance. While data dependency on inflation will be a critical factor, comments about bank stability will carry weight, in particular how many rate hikes the Fed see the current credit tightening as being equivalent to,” the update stated.

“Lately, crypto as an asset class has not been a good reflection of macro markets. To that end, crypto has its own event risk following the release of FOMC minutes.”

Ether gives up BTC gains

Ahead of the Ethereum (ETH) Shanghai upgrade mainnet launch, meanwhile, altcoins had a difficult 24 hours, with many of the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap shedding 3-4%.

Related: CPI to spark dollar ‘massacre’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

In so doing, altcoins reversed the gains that had accompanied Bitcoin’s push past the $30,000 mark, Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight noted.

Ether strength against Bitcoin fell to ten-month lows on the day, with ETH/BTC trading at 0.062.

ETH/BTC 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

“As expected that strength on ETH/BTC was short lived,” popular trader Credible Crypto reacted.

He added that the performance did not “speak so much to weakness on ETH per se, but rather just much more strength on BTC as we continue our parabolic advance to new all time highs.”

ETH/BTC annotated chart. Source: Credible Crypto/ Twitter

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin double top ‘invalidated’ amid fear CPI may fuel macro comedown

Feelings over BTC price action diverge across short and long timeframes as the upcoming CPI and PPI prints unsettle the mood.

Bitcoin (BTC) got busy testing $30,000 as new support at the April 11 Wall Street open after hitting new 10-month highs.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

$30,000 surge decimates liquidity

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD coming down from an overnight peak near $30,500.

The pair had spent most of the day bouncing from the $30,000 mark after finally passing it in a short squeeze weeks in the making.

Major misgivings from some market participants accompanied the move, with fears centering on a potential correction to $25,000 or even lower.

Takes became more optimistic on longer timeframes, however. The $30,000 push, for instance, cemented popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital’s conviction that Bitcoin had abandoned a bearish double top formation from Q1.

“The signs for distortion of the BTC Double Top were there,” he wrote in a Twitter thread update.

“$BTC has invalidated the Double Top and confirmed a breakout to new Yearly Highs.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/Twitter

Continuing, Rekt Capital spelled out the conditions required to be met on daily timeframes to continue the bullish momentum.

Related: Crypto audits and bug bounties are broken: Here’s how to fix them

Analyzing the composition of the Binance order book on the day, meanwhile, monitoring resource Material Indicators suggested that the odds of continued upside remained good.

“After the push above $30k, BTC liquidity is diffused in both directions,” it explained in part of it commentary.

“There are no massive buy/sell walls, in fact the so called walls that appear on FireCharts are rather thin. Bullish momentum is growing so we could see a push higher.”

BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/Twitter

CPI lurks as volatility catalyst

The general mood was mixed with apprehension, thanks to macro catalysts waiting in the wings for the rest of the week.

Related: Bitcoin ‘faces headwinds’ as US money supply drops most since 1950s

The United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for March will be released on April 12, with Producer Price Inflation (PPI) following on April 13.

With both events known to induce risk asset volatility, Material Indicators acknowledged that an “explosive move” may result for Bitcoin this time around.

“Wed CPI and Thu PPI Reports could trigger a more explosive move. If numbers are hot, expecting a correction,” it added.

Markets commentator Holger Zschaepitz nonetheless flagged the highest levels of shorting the S&P 500 since 2011 ahead of the CPI release.

As Cointelegraph reported, the correlation in volatility between Bitcoin and equities has cooled significantly.

Analytics account Tedtalksmacro added that “traders are likely to risk-off into the event” when it comes to the CPI.

“Risk that a hot print forces market-wide repricing,” part of a post read as Bitcoin passed $30,000, noting for BTC/USD that there were “signs of froth up here, perps leading price higher and plenty of large spot offers have been lifted.”

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

CPI to spark dollar ‘massacre’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin seals its highest weekly close in ten months as CPI prepares to inject fresh volatility into BTC price and beyond.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the week on a firm footing as bulls send BTC price to a new 10-month high weekly close.

After a relatively calm week, last-minute volatility is getting traders excited at the prospects of a repeat attack on $30,000 resistance — but a lot stands in the way.

In what is set to be a significant week of macroeconomic data releases, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for March is due April 12, along with fresh insights into Federal Reserve policy.

Add to that the Ethereum Shanghai upgrade and it’s a recipe for volatility. How will Bitcoin react?

Volatility correlations between the largest cryptocurrency and traditional risk assets are inverting, data shows, while sentiment data also suggests little appetite for sudden selling among the hodler base.

Cointelegraph takes a look at the status quo in the run-up to what promises to be a week that keeps market participants on their toes.

CPI headlines key macro data week

A familiar event leads the week’s macro calendar, with U.S. CPI data due for March.

The release, this time on April 12, traditionally accompanies heightened volatility in risk assets, making that date a key area to watch for “fakeouts” in crypto markets.

The Federal Reserve will further produce the minutes of its latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, during which it opted to continue raising interest rates.

The environment is thus somewhat complicated when it comes to CPI’s impact on asset performance. While traders want to see inflation receding faster than expected, the Fed itself remains hawkish, last month confirming that further interest rate hikes may be appropriate.

However, a divergence between the Fed and markets is equally evident, with sentiment beginning to show that the latter simply does not believe rate hikes will continue much longer.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, next month’s FOMC meeting will likely end in a repeat 0.25% hike. Those odds are highly flexible and react immediately to any new macro data releases, CPI included.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

For macroeconomic and stock market analyst James Choi, there is another side to the inflation story, one involving a traditional headwind for crypto: the U.S. dollar.

This week’s release will set dollar strength on a three-month freefall, he warned on April 10, paving the way for some potential further relief on risk assets.

“People seem to have no idea how the $USD $DXY will fall in the next 3 months,” he commented on a U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) chart originally shared in late 2022.

“And this massacre will begin with this week’s CPI report. Mark my words, mark them well…”

U.S. dollar index (DXY) annotated chart. Source: James Choi/ Twitter

Others are eyeing Q1 bank earnings as a source of potential knee-jerk market reactions, among them Jim Bianco, president of macro analysis firm Bianco Research.

In part of a Twitter commentary, Bianco predicted that the earnings would be “bigger than CPI.“

Bitcoin price volatility on the up

If volatility is what traders want, they arguably already have it in abundance, data shows.

According to market data resource Kaiko, Bitcoin is on a diverging path from equities when it comes to volatility, increasing action while the Nasdaq cools.

The events of last month, centered around the unfolding U.S. banking crisis, were enough to send the “gap” between Bitcoin and Nasdaq 30-day rolling volatility to its highest levels in a year.

Bitcoin vs. Nasdaq correlation chart. Source: Kaiko/ Twitter

Bitcoin’s correlation with gold, Kaiko revealed last week, is now higher than with the S&P 500.

Bitcoin correlation annotated chart. Source: Kaiko/ Twitter

Kaiko added that Bitcoin’s inverse correlation to the U.S. dollar is also rapidly unwinding.

“Although BTC remains negatively correlated with the US Dollar, the correlation is now almost negligible, falling from -60% to -23% YTD,” part of Twitter commentary read at the weekend.

Bitcoin vs. DXY volatility chart. Source: Kaiko/ Twitter

BTC price sets new 10-month high weekly close

Bitcoin offered a late surprise into the April 9 weekly close, with BTC/USD making last-minute gains to seal the candle at just above $28,300 on Bitstamp, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

This is impressive in itself, marking fresh ten-month highs for weekly closes as bears are continually denied a return to lower levels.

“Bitcoin still holding the lower area of support, and still following the path,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, wrote as part of his latest analysis.

“Everyone wants to long $25K, but I think we won’t be getting it. No clear bearish divergences either on higher timeframes. Retest of $28.6K & most likely breakout to $30K+.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/ Twitter

During the close, BTC/USD managed to hit local highs of $28,540 before returning to consolidate below the closing level.

Van de Poppe remains optimistic about the short-term prospects.

“Bitcoin consolidated at support and runs to $28,500. Another test of $28,600-29,000 and we’ll most likely breakout significantly,” he continued.

“More importantly; confidence comes back in the markets then, so you’ll see more Altcoins starting to break out.”

Related: Crypto winter can take a toll on hodlers’ mental health

In his own appraisal of longer-term market strength, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital described Bitcoin as “very well positioned” to make further gains.

When it comes to price action in 2023 so far, however, he remains conservative, noting the ongoing potential for BTC/USD to form a “double top” structure and return toward its yearly open.

“Still unclear whether BTC is forming a Double Top here,” he summarized alongside an explanatory daily chart.

“Either side of the Double Top formation is approximately equal, though this more recent part is becoming a bit longer. If this second part becomes even longer, it could distort the pattern altogether.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/ Twitter

Ethereum Shanghai upgrade looms

As Bitcoin market dominance sees a return to form, BTC may see an internal source of friction this week as Ethereum prepares to undergo its Shanghai hard fork.

ETH/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Cointelegraph has extensively reported on the event, which will unlock — and open up for sale — around $2 billion in Ether (ETH).

Analysts are classically divided over how intense the resulting sell-side pressure might be. Some soberer takes argue that there will be few incentives for holders to exit the market.

“For those looking to ‘sell the news’ after the Shanghai upgrade, staked ETH will take around 1 year+ to be completely unlocked, it will be on a first come first served basis,” analytics account The Modern Investor summarized on Twitter.

“Those who started in 2021 will be released first. Caution: You’ll just be selling your ETH to whales.“

While ETH/USD recently hit its highest levels since August, attempting to snatch $2,000, ETH/BTC is struggling to lift off from ten-month lows.

ETH/BTC 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

“Rejected,“ popular trader Cheds reacted to the latest events on the ETH/BTC daily chart.

Sustainable greed?

Despite crypto market sentiment being at its most “greedy” since the BTC/USD all-time highs of November 2021, there are some encouraging signals from hodlers.

Related: Bitcoin traders expect ‘big move’ next as BTC price flatlines at $28K

These come courtesy of research firm Santiment, which at the weekend noted an ongoing trend that echoes hodler action from earlier that year as Bitcoin headed into unknown price territory.

“There is a rising rate of Bitcoin hodlers as traders seem to have become increasingly content in keeping their bags unmoved for the long-term,” it stated.

“We saw a similar trend from January, 2021 through April, 2021 when $BTC rose above $64k for the first time.“

During Q1 2021, crypto market “greed” was much more intense, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index spending much of the time near its maximum levels — traditionally a warning that a correction is due.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin rejects at $25K as US PPI data meets Credit Suisse meltdown

BTC price attempts to break toward the week’s highs, but a charging U.S. dollar creates some serious friction for Bitcoin bulls.

Bitcoin (BTC) kept bears sweating near $25,000 on March 15 as encouraging macroeconomic data combined with concerns over banking crisis contagion.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

PPI offers “great signs” on Fed pivot

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD recovering from a 24-hour comedown to see highs of $25,273 on Bitstamp.

The pair reacted positively to the latest United States Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which came in far lower than expected.

Prior to the release, the Binance order book showed principal bid and ask liquidity parked at $22,000 and $26,000, respectively.

“Time will tell if enough bid liquidity is there to insulate $22k from getting hit,” on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators wrote in part of an accompanying commentary while uploading the data to Twitter.

BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/Twitter

For Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, signs were there for the Federal Reserve and Chair Jerome Powell to abandon interest rate hikes at next week’s decisive meeting.

“PPI comes in at 4.6%, while 5.4% was expected. Massive miss, resulting into inflation coming down. Powell to pivot?” he queried.

“Atleast 25bps seems very likely (or no hikes with the banking issues). Great signs!”

The PPI joined already buoyant Consumer Price Index data released the day prior, which accompanied nine-month highs for Bitcoin as crypto took full advantage of the unfolding U.S. banking crisis.

A day later, however, the focus was Europe as European bank stocks were halted for volatility and one in particular, Credit Suisse, hit new record lows.

Credit Suisse was down over 25% at one point before a reversal took it above the $2 mark.

“Silicon Valley Bank had about $209 billion in assets. Credit Suisse has about $578 billion in assets,” Genevieve Roch-Decter, CEO of financial insights firm Grit Capital, commented on the situation.

“This is a much bigger problem in the making.”

Dollar climbs, ignores U.S. inflation data

Crypto, meanwhile, faced headwinds from an arguably unlikely source on March 15 in the form of surging U.S. dollar strength.

Related: Bitcoin to $100K next? Analyst eyes ‘textbook perfect’ BTC price move

Despite the economic data print showing declining inflation and more favorable conditions for risk assets, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hit 105 for the first time since the Silicon Valley Bank implosion on March 1

Markets commentator Tedtalksmacro pinned the blame firmly on Europe’s banking troubles.

“Banking contagion is now spreading to Europe, euro bond yields sharply lower and therefore EUR is also sharply lower,” part of a tweet read.

“The EUR makes up 58% of the DXY. So EUR down = DXY up!”

The DXY measures dollar strength against a basket of major trading partner currencies. Its performance is traditionally inversely correlated with crypto markets.

U.S. dollar index 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingView

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

4 signs the Bitcoin price rally could top out at $26K for now

BTC price faces pullback risks thanks to bearish on-chain movements and challenging technical resistance levels.

Bitcoin (BTC) received a substantial boost this week as United States inflation levels for February were in line with market expectations. On March 14, the BTC/USD pair surged to a 2023 peak at $26,550 after the news.

But, while the macroeconomic conditions may currently favor risk-on buyers, certain on-chain and market indicators hint at a potential correction in the near term.

BTC flows back to exchanges as price rises

On March 13, Glassnode’s exchange flow data recorded the most significant inflow to exchanges since May 2022. This means more supply on exchanges and potentially higher selling pressure.

The coin days destroyed indicator, which measures the time-weighted transfers of Bitcoin, also shows a small spike, indicating that old hands are moving coins. The indicators might signal profit booking by long-term holders, which can lead to a correction.

Bitcoin exchange netflow volume. Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin funding rates, RSI jump

Moreover, the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual swaps is also elevated with the latest Consumer Price Index print. In other words, more traders are betting on the upside with leveraged positions, increasing the risk of a correction.

Funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts. Source: Coinglass

The sharp price movement has also recorded a significant spike in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a technical momentum indicator, with a reading of as high as 82. This means that BTC/USD is generally considered “overbought” in the short term.

BTC vs. USD painting a bearish pattern

BTC price is currently forming a broadening wedge pattern, which depicts the heightened level of volatility. Both buyers and sellers are pushing the price beyond support and resistance levels, with the reversals coming quickly.

BTC/USD 4-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

Buyers failed to stage a pattern breakout on March 14, and are now facing resistance at its ceiling of $26,700. At the same time, there is a chance that the price will correct back toward the bottom of the pattern, around $19,500, in the coming days.

On the contrary, if Bitcoin’s price breaks above the top trendline, the bulls will likely pile in to push the price toward $30,000. There are potentially welcome signs for the bulls that this could happen — namely in the BTC options and futures markets.

As Cointelegraph reported, there’s still room to run, as the indicators have yet to reach previous peak levels.  

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin price sees new 2023 high as CPI sends BTC price above $26K

Bitcoin sees a major new lift-off thanks to CPI numbers conforming to expectations — reducing the chances of the Fed tightening financial conditions.

Bitcoin (BTC) spiked above $26,000 on March 14 as United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed mixed inflation signals.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

CPI fuels 9-month BTC price highs

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as sudden volatility kicked in on the release of February’s CPI numbers.

Inflation climbed 6% year-on-year, while the month-on-month figure was 0.4% — both in line with expectations. Items excluding food and energy increased by 0.5%, slightly higher than forecast.

Bitcoin appeared to react positively to the data, which allowed the Federal Reserve to avoid being trapped between stickier inflation and avoiding interest rate hikes amid an ongoing banking crisis.

Reacting, Venturefounder, a contributing analyst at on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, suggested that the market was now anticipating a “pivot” on hikes — a key boon for risk assets more broadly.

“The market: oh yes big victory on fighting inflation! No more rate hikes and Fed is gonna cut rate by 50 BPS before EoY 2023,” he tweeted.

“If Powell changes the 2% inflation target it will be the biggest rug move by the Fed since the 1970s taking USD off gold standards.“

Trading resource Game of Trades nonetheless argued that CPI was not yet low enough for the Fed to “aggressively” change its stance and echo actions that followed the March 2020 COVID-19 crash.

“Consensus gets it spot on as CPI comes in at 6%. But it’s not low enough to give the Fed room to aggressively step in during the ongoing crisis, as it did during C19,” a tweet read.

Volatility ongoing as BTC price eyes $26,000

CPI is notorious for sparking unpredictable BTC price moves, and as such, the picture remained unclear at the time of writing as to where BTC/USD would head next.

Related: Bitcoin price nears $25K as analysts place bets on CPI impact

Before the CPI release, significant sell-side liquidity was parked at $25,000 and beyond; the main target of bulls on low timeframes.

BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source; Material Indicators/ Twitter

Bitcoin’s local highs of $26,150 marked a new record for 2023 — its best performance since June last year.

BTC/USD took out the key 200-period moving average, acting as resistance on weekly timeframes.

BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp) with 200MA. Source: TradingView

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin price nears $25K as analysts place bets on CPI impact

Bitcoin lines up a fresh charge at multimonth resistance, but BTC price action already faces calls for a comedown triggered by CPI.

Bitcoin (BTC) eyed key resistance near $25,000 on March 14 as markets awaited key economic data from the United States.

BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Hopes CPI will bring Bitcoin “consolidation”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD making monthly highs of $24,917 on Bitstamp overnight.

The pair remained buoyant after the impact of multiple U.S. bank closures sent crypto markets skyrocketing.

Now, all eyes were temporarily on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for February when it came to short-term BTC price action.

A classic crypto volatility catalyst in itself, last month, CPI showed an unwelcome slowdown in inflation abating; this, in turn, gave rise to fears that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates higher for longer.

However, risk assets had little time to worry as the banking crisis overshadowed the inflation debate. On the day, expectations already pointed to the Fed abandoning rate hikes altogether — regardless of CPI trends.

“Bitcoin sweeping the highs here as it’s testing range high at $25K,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, told Twitter followers.

“You’d preferably want to see some period of consolidation (CPI day today) before continuation. If markets sweep range high at $25.2K, make a bear. div and fall back, I’d be looking for shorts to $23K.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/ Twitter

On-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators pointed to a potential shake-up in order book composition thanks to CPI.

Should the data outpace expectations, bid support could “rug,” it warned, opening up the path for a deeper BTC price correction.

“Asia may continue to eat ask liquidity and clear a path for volatility before the CPI Report,” it commented about moves on the BTC/USD pair on Binance.

“If CPI is hot, I expect support to rug. If it’s cold, and another bank doesn’t go under before lunch, a bigger short squeeze.”

An accompanying chart from co-founder Keith Alan showed $23,600 and $25,000 as the principal areas of bid and ask liquidity, respectively.

BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Keith Alan/ Twitter

Material Indicators added that in order for Bitcoin’s overall rally to have legs, it would need to deliver multiple weekly closes above its 200-week moving average (WMA).

“Need full candles above the 200 WMA to consider a breakout,” it confirmed.

BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp) with 200MA. Source: TradingView

CPI: “Manufactured” or “in some solid shape”?

Lower-than-expected CPI readings would boost the case for the Fed to lay off further rate hikes and loosen financial conditions.

Related: Fed starts ‘stealth QE’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

For his part, U.S. President Joe Biden last week appeared to have no concerns that inflation was on the right track, even before the banking crisis fully erupted.

In a White House press conference, Biden said he was “optimistic we’re going to get the — the CPI next week. Hopefully, we’ll be in — in some solid shape.“

Among analysts, however, there were suspicions. A surprise drop in CPI would be most beneficial for a Fed currently backed into a corner by recent events, popular trader xTrends implied.

“I believe tomorrows CPI will be manufactured to prevent a market crash, and it will be silently revised weeks later like they did with the last few CPI numbers,” he revealed in part of the Twitter commentary.

A starker warning on macro came from Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, who issued a grim forecast for the consequences of any further rate hikes.

In a dedicated Twitter thread on March 13, Wood, under whose leadership ARK continues to increase crypto exposure, called for a Fed “pivot” on rates.

“If the Fed continues to focus on lagging indicators like the CPI, and does not pivot in response to the deflationary forces telegraphed by the inverted yield curve, then this crisis will devour more regional banks and further centralize, if not nationalize, the US banking system,” she wrote.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin traders eye $19K BTC price bottom, warn of ‘hot’ February CPI

It could be a testing few weeks for Bitcoin and risk assets, market commentators say, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell due to kick off the triggers on March 8.

Bitcoin (BTC) failed to react at the March 6 Wall Street open as consensus formed around a potential violation of $20,000.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

$19,000 BTC price is “breakdown target”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked a limp BTC/USD as it clung to $22,400 at the time of writing.

Motionless throughout the weekend, the pair offered few trading opportunities as concerns built up over the impact of forthcoming macroeconomic data from the United States.

Specifically, the February print of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), due March 14, is expected to be “hot,” or above expectations, analyst Venturefounder said.

“New Bitcoin higher low, and the bearish RSI divergence continues,” he wrote in a Twitter update on the day.

“With a hot CPI number coming and FOMC meeting later this month, March could be a bad month for risk-on assets including BTC. A breakdown from this level would target $19k BTC.”

An accompanying chart laid out the potential path to below $20,000 and also highlighted the bearish divergence in Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI), formed when the metric’s trajectory runs in the opposite direction to price — downward versus upward, respectively.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Venturefounder/ Twitter

CPI prints tend to spark short-term volatility across risk assets, this nonetheless often short lived, with the Bitcoin spot price then returning to previous levels.

Continuing, popular trader Crypto Ed likewise voiced belief in $19,000 marking the next local BTC price floor.

“Biggest bulltrap ever, but the bottom is in. Enjoy the coming months and don’t get fooled on the lower TF’s!” part of Twitter commentary read.

U.S. dollar lines up key test

Turning to macro markets, trading resource Game of Trades drew attention to what it called “heavy resistance” on U.S. dollar strength.

Related: BTC price ‘in the chop zone’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Traditionally inversely correlated with Bitcoin, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) now faced a key trend line retest.

“DXY is closing in on a heavy resistance zone after reclaiming the macro uptrend line,” Game of Trades wrote.

“Reaction here will be pivotal for all markets.”

U.S. dollar index (DXY) annotated chart. Source: Game of Trades/ Twitter

Popular trader Crypto Chase meanwhile saw a tight trading range in place on the S&P 500, mimicking the lack of momentum on Bitcoin.

Attention was already on the March 7 appearance before the U.S. Congress by Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, for cues on the monetary conditions going forward.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.