Calls

Bitcoin bulls aim to hold this week’s BTC gains leading into Friday’s $675M options expiry

$675 million in BTC options are set to expire on Feb. 17, but bears could aim to take control by pushing Bitcoin’s price below $22,000.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) gained 6.3% just two days after reaching $21,370 on Feb. 13, which was the lowest level seen in more than three weeks. The price recovery can be partially explained by the Feb. 14 U.S. Consumer Price Index data displaying a 6.4% increase in year-over-year inflation in January.

While the U.S. Federal Reserve continues to monitor the overheated economy, the most likely scenario is further interest rate hikes to curb inflation. The unintended consequence is the heightened government debt cost, creating a bullish environment for scarce assets such as commodities, stock market and cryptocurrencies.

The price gain of Bitcoin practically extinguished bears’ expectation for a sub-$21,500 options expiry on Feb. 17, so their bets are unlikely to pay off as the deadline approaches.

Bitcoin investors’ primary concern is the possibility of further impacts from regulators following the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ordering Kraken to halt its staking rewards program on Feb. 9 and the crackdown on Binance USD (BUSD) stablecoin issuing on Feb. 13.

Even if the newsflow remains negative, bulls still can profit from Feb. 17’s options expiry by keeping the BTC price above $22,500, but the situation can easily flip and favor bears.

Bears were not expecting the $22,000 level to hold

The open interest for the Feb. 17 options expiry is $675 million, but the actual figure will be lower since bears were expecting sub-$22,000 price levels. These traders became overconfident after Bitcoin traded below $21,500 on Feb. 13.

*Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Feb. 17. Source: CoinGlass*

The 1.12 call-to-put ratio reflects the imbalance between the $355 million call (buy) open interest and the $320 million put (sell) options. If Bitcoin’s price remains near $22,700 at 8:00 am UTC on Feb. 17, only $24 million worth of these put (sell) options will be available. This difference happens because the right to sell Bitcoin at $21,000 or $22,000 is useless if BTC trades above that level on expiry.

Bulls aim for $23,000 to secure a $155 million profit

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on Feb. 17 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

Between $21,000 and $22,000: 700 calls vs. 5,500 puts. The net result favors the put (bear) instruments by $100 million.
Between $22,000 and $22,500: 1,800 calls vs. 1,500 puts. The net result is balanced between bears and bulls.
Between $22,500 and $23,000: 3,800 calls vs. 1,100 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $60 million.
Between $23,000 and $24,000: 6,900 calls vs. 200 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $155 million.

This crude estimate considers the call options used in bullish bets and the put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

For example, a trader could have sold a call option, effectively gaining negative exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price, but unfortunately, there’s no easy way to estimate this effect.

Bears might benefit from the impact of regulation

Bitcoin bulls need to push the price above $23,000 on Feb. 17 to secure a potential $155 million profit. On the other hand, the bears’ best-case scenario requires a 3.5% dump below $22,000 to maximize their gains.

Considering the negative pressure from regulators, bears have good odds of flipping the table and avoiding a loss of $60 million or larger on Feb. 17.

More importantly, looking at a broader time frame, there is little room for the Fed to slow down the economy without spiraling the debt interest repayments out of control.

Feb. 17 will be an interesting display of strength between the short-term impact of a hostile crypto regulation environment versus Bitcoin’s long-term scarcity and censorship-resistance benefits.

Bitcoin (BTC) price gained 6.3% just two days after reaching $21,370 on Feb. 13, which was the lowest level seen in more than three weeks. The price recovery can be partially explained by the Feb. 14 U.S. Consumer price index data displaying a 6.4% increase in year-over-year inflation in January.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Stock price for troubled Bitcoin miner Core Scientific surges 200%

After a flurry of bad news throughout 2022, the miner has been offered a lifeline that could enable it to see out the current crypto winter.

Bitcoin (BTC) miner Core Scientific’s stock has soared nearly 200% in the past four days, following the positive reception for a Dec. 14 financing proposal from a current creditor that is hoping the firm can avoid bankruptcy.

Shares for the embattled miner were sitting just over 13 cents on Dec. 12, before climbing to nearly 40 cents as the market closed on Dec. 15 — a gain of 198%.

*A five-day chart showing Core Scientific’s share price on Nasdaq. Source: TradingView*

According to financial media firm Marketbeat, traders acquired 6,572 call options on Dec. 15, 136% more than the average volume of 2,780, indicating that many are bullish on the stock and are betting that the price will continue rising.

Some members of the Bitcoin community were also acquiring shares, hoping for a huge return if the financing plan goes through and the firm can survive through the bear market.

Bought a slug of $CORZ at the close. If the financing goes through and they can survive through the bear market, this trade could become an absolute MONSTER. DYOR. For your reference: pic.twitter.com/eHF4NXjcvH

— CR (@CashRocket) December 14, 2022

The rally could be the start of a turnaround, or just a dead cat bounce. Core Scientific was hit with a run of bad news throughout 2022 and despite recent gains the price is still 95% lower than it was at the start of the year.

On Dec. 14 financial services platform B. Riley wrote a letter to Core’s shareholders and lenders, outlining a $72 million financing plan that it believes is sufficient to prevent the miner from being forced to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

Should the deal be accepted, the first $40 million would be funded “immediately, with zero contingencies,” while the rest of the funds would be issued if Core agrees to suspend payments to equipment lenders until the price of Bitcoin is back above $18,500 — a price the leading cryptocurrency has been below since Nov. 9.

B. Riley suggests the financing will provide Core with two years of operating cash, and notes that their analyst forecasts that the miner can generate annual earnings of approximately $165 million at a Bitcoin price of $18,000, with an extra $20 million for each $1,000 price increase.

Core was hit hard by the broader market downturn and filed a report on Oct. 26 citing a low BTC price, high electricity rates and a refusal from bankrupt crypto lender Celsius to repay a $2.1 million loan as reasons why it might default on some of its debts.

The bad news continued on Nov. 22, when the miner admitted in a quarterly report that its cash reserves may be depleted by the end of 2022 and it did not believe it would be able to raise funds through financing or capital markets given the current market conditions.