Bull run

BTC forming bottom akin to 2018 with one key difference: Bloomberg analyst

Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone says Bitcoin is forming a bottom similar to how it looked prior to the 2019 bull run — but with one big difference.

Mike McGlone, Bloomberg’s senior commodity strategist, believes Bitcoin (BTC) could be developing a “bottom” in the same way it did prior to 2019’s bull run but said there is a major difference this time around.

During a Jan. 16 interview with crypto podcaster Scott Melker, McGlone argued unlike in 2018 when financial institutions such as the Federal Reserve were easing interest rates, this time they’re still tightening, along with “every central bank.”

“Back then the Fed already started easing and we held the bottom and broke out higher and then we had that issue in 2019,” he said.

“Right now they’re tightening aggressively, so you look at that and you can’t be too excited about any markets. Give it some time. Big picture, yes, really bullish Bitcoin,” McGlone added.

*Graph showing Bitcoin market prices. Image: Mike McGlone*

McGlone also warned BTC might not see the surge being predicted just yet, as there are challenging macroeconomic conditions and pressure from interest-rate hikes.

He believes the Nasdaq is likely to dip below its 200-week moving average, which he claims is another indication BTC’s price rally may not happen soon.

“Liquidity is being pulled away still and if the Nasdaq breaks down, everything breaks down, Bitcoin is going to be part of it.”

“I still think it’s going to come out ahead so to me that’s where we stand,” he added.

McGlone also said the market has entered an “unprecedented” environment, “where we’re having bounces in what we know are bear markets and the Fed just says, sorry we’re taking the punchbowl away, we’re not giving it get back to you.”

“I still think we’re in the midst of the biggest macroeconomic reset of our lifetimes, we just had a 100-year event in terms of the pandemic, we’re having a historic war in Europe and we’re having a historic shift in political leadership in China,” he added.

“I mean it’s going back to the days of the Soviet Union when you have one leader and are expecting to be economically viable.”

Hong Kong could be key for China’s crypto comeback: Arthur Hayes

Hayes says the next crypto bull run will be tied to when China embraces the crypto market again, and Hong Kong could be the gateway for this to happen.

Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of crypto derivatives giant BitMEX, believes the next crypto bull run will start when China moves back into the market, and Hong Kong has a vital part to play in this process.

In his Oct. 26 blog post titled “Comeback,” Hayes outlined why he thinks the Hong Kong government’s announcement about introducing a bill to regulate crypto is a sign China is trying to ease its way back into the market. This could be because Hong Kong acts as “the proxy through which China interacts with the world:”

“When China loves crypto, the bull market will come back. It will be a slow process, but the red shoots are budding.”

Hayes argued that Hong Kong may become the testing ground for Beijing to experiment with crypto markets and act as a hub for Chinese capital to find its way into the global crypto markets:

“If these flows actually materialize in the way I imagine, they will be a strong supporting pillar of the next bull market.”

According to Hayes, Hong Kong’s “reorientation as a pro-crypto location” is a prong in Beijing’s strategy to reduce its position in a way that won’t destabilize its internal financial system.

Hong Kong was ranked the best-prepared country for widespread crypto adoption in a study by Forex Suggest published in July 2022. It considered several factors like crypto ATM installations, pro-crypto regulations and startup culture.

China has one of the largest economies in the world but has been mostly hostile toward the crypto industry. The country’s first ban came way back in 2013 when it prohibited banks from handling Bitcoin (BTC) transactions.

Beijing ramped up its crypto crackdown efforts in 2021 when it carried out multiple regulatory operations to eradicate Bitcoin mining from the country and deemed all crypto transactions illegal.

However, Hayes says, “China has not left crypto — it has just been dormant.”

China did resume BTC mining operations in September 2022, and Chainalysis noted in its 2022 Global Crypto Adoption Index that China re-entered the top ten this year after placing 13th in 2021.

The authors of the Global Crypto Adoption Index said they found the development “especially interesting” given the Chinese government’s crackdown on crypto, but according to their data, “the ban has either been ineffective or loosely enforced.”