BTC price

‘Can it get any easier?’ Bitcoin whales dictate when to buy and sell BTC

Whale buying and selling has effectively told traders how to position their bids and asks, data reveals.

Bitcoin (BTC) left both long and short traders behind in May and June, but data suggests trading it may be “easier” than many imagine.

According to on-chain analytics resource Whalemap, Bitcoin whales have all but dictated market performance in recent weeks.

Whales help pin Bitcoin at $30,000

In a fresh analysis published on June 7, Whalemap researchers showed that BTC/USD local tops and bottoms have coincided with areas of heightened whale activity.

When Bitcoin’s largest wallet entities choose to buy or sell, the price reacts accordingly. For those looking to reduce risk trading short timeframes, it may thus suffice to act according to where popular whale levels lie.

“Can it get easier than this?” Whalemap summarized in part of a Twitter post.

Bitcoin whale wallet inflows annotated chart. Source: Whalemap/Twitter

As Cointelegraph reported, some whales are of more interest than others. Over the past week, one such entity on Binance has been contributing to Bitcoin’s narrow trading range with a series of buys and sells.

“This binance whale has marked every local top/bottom for the last two weeks,” popular analyst Credible Crypto added in new Twitter comments on June 8.

“Been watching him come and go. Accumulating at the lows, capping price at the highs. Most recently filled 2,000 BTC (60 million) at the local lows at 29.2k before this pump we are seeing now.”

That “pump,” just like that from earlier in the week, has been short-lived, with BTC/USD plateauing then reversing, losing practically all the gains from its initial uptrend, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

“Annoying” stocks correlation keeps pressure on BTC

Zooming out beyond internal factors, meanwhile, optimism remains thin for inflationary macro conditions favoring crypto strength going forward.

Related: BTC price snaps its longest losing streak in history — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

While whales keep prices rangebound, Bitcoin’s correlation to stock markets is also frustrating traders. 

Stocks themselves are further unlikely to feel relief in the short term, commentator Bob Loukas admitted on June 7 as monetary tightening worldwide gathers pace.

“Still don’t see macro catalyst (yet) for bottom in equities. As stated before has look of a cyclical bear market that needs more time,” he said.

“Price action on Cycle front confirms, move down into summer months. Been underweight a while, happy to be wrong. Wont fomo a ripping rally.”

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Coinbase balance drops by 30K BTC as Bitcoin price nurses 6% losses

Whales and institutions alike are on the radar after the latest data from exchange order books.

Bitcoin (BTC) held steady at the June 7 Wall Street open after a night of losses cost bulls heavily.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Coinbase sees conspicuous outflows

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it ranged near $30,000, still down 6% versus its prior highs.

After underperforming versus United States equities on June 6, the pair nonetheless managed to avoid falling further in step with stocks. At the time of writing, the S&P 500 was down 0.6% from the open, with the Nasdaq Composite Index 0.5% lower.

Analyzing order book data, on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators noted that a wall of bids from a whale “spoofing” the market in recent days had finally dissipated. Earlier, that entity had posted a support line at $29,000.

“Looks like the whale we’ve been watching spoof for over a week finally unloaded some BTC,” it revealed, alongside a chart of the Binance order book.

“The $60M in bids we saw pop up just above $29K was broken into smaller blocks, moved into the active trading range and appears to have been filled.”

BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/ Twitter

Another intriguing event related to buying came from Coinbase Pro, the professional trading offshoot of major U.S. exchange Coinbase, which saw what appeared to be tens of thousands of BTC in outflows over the past 24 hours.

While potentially an internal transaction, an institutional client could now be in possession of around $30,000 BTC, according to data from the on-chain analytics platform Coinglass.

Coinbase’s BTC balance thus returned to its lowest levels since May 16.

Coinbase BTC balance chart. Source: Coinglass

Bitcoin dominance hits 8-month highs

Amid a relative lack of volatility, attention focused on Bitcoin dominance over struggling altcoins.

Related: Bitfinex Bitcoin longs hit a record-high, but does that mean BTC has bottomed?

That dominance stood at 46.3% of the overall crypto market cap on June 7, Bitcoin’s highest since October 2021.

“Once we break out of the range high, that is when we will see capitulation begin on Altcoins and i will be looking to deploy capital on signs of a bottoming formation and accumulation,” trading account Crypto Tony told Twitter followers.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin ‘Bart Simpson’ returns as BTC price dives 7% in hours

Bitcoin price action fails to crack $32,000 and heads back to square one, sparking $60 million of long liquidations in the process.

Bitcoin (BTC) firmly recommitted to its trading range on June 7 after a fresh move higher was met with a swift sell-off.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

“Some of the best chop we’ve seen”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD rejecting decisively at resistance it last encountered on June 1.

The pair had delivered daily gains in excess of 6%, but the approach to $32,000 changed the mood, and Bitcoin gave back almost $2,500 in a matter of hours.

A classic “Bart Simpson” structure thus formed on hourly timeframes as frustrated traders came to terms with the existing paradigm remaining unchallenged.

“Standard price action again on Bitcoin in which all the lows are swept,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe wrote in a Twitter update.

“If we hold around $29K, still presumably enough reason to go for a slight run. (And $29K area is still CME gap territory).”

CME Bitcoin futures 4-hour candle chart with unfilled gap highlighted. Source: TradingView

In addition to the CME futures gap providing a potential target at levels seen before the gains, on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators noted significant buy interest already lined up at those levels.

Should that not hold, targets focused on the area around $28,000 next.

“I will simply be looking for short opportunities in this range,” fellow trading account Crypto Tony continued, nodding to the overall downtrend continuing.

“Either we lose the range low and will short a retest, or if we retest the EQ of the range and reject i will look for a short position. Flat until one of these triggers plays out.”

One market participant not at all surprised by the short-timeframe action was Filbfilb, co-founder of trading platform DecenTrader.

“Some of the best chop we’ve seen tbh, high quality stuff,” he joked.

“I’d say it’s always the same, people desperate not to miss the ‘bottom’ but this one is particularly funny how it’s instantly reversing. Trade chasers getting absolutely ruined.”

Long traders battling volatility sparked 24-hour liquidations totaling $60 million for BTC and another $158 million on altcoins, data from analytics platform Coinglass confirmed.

Crypto liquidations chart. Source: Coinglass

Stocks correlation blurred

Bitcoin altcoins thus severely underperformed compared with notionally correlated United States equities.

Related: BTC price snaps its longest losing streak in history — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index finished the June 6 trading session above the open, putting their relationship with crypto in question.

Yassine Elmandjra, a crypto asset analyst at ARK Invest, nonetheless noted that Bitcoin’s overall correlation to the S&P had reached new all-time highs on a rolling 30-day basis.

Discussing BTC price action further, he argued that “major” trendlines remained intact on BTC/USD, even given May’s dip to $23,800. This, as Cointelegraph reported, was still ripe for a retest in the eyes of many.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

BTC price approaches $32K as analyst warns of ‘boring’ summer for Bitcoin

$32,000 comes back into view at 6% gains are helped by a return to strength on U.S. stock markets.

Bitcoin (BTC) retained new higher levels at the June 6 Wall Street open after BTC/USD snapped a nine-week losing streak.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Stocks could take BTC as high as $37,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed the largest cryptocurrency as it circled $31,500 on the back of 6% daily gains.

The start of Wall Street trading provided further support to bulls as United States equities headed higher. The S&P 500 traded up 1.4% at the time of writing, while the Nasdaq Composite gained close to 2%.

For popular social media analyst Wolf, Bitcoin’s correlation to stocks could see further upside should the S&P 500 flip its 21-month exponential moving average (EMA) to support. 

“$SPX sitting on the monthly 21EMA, should it hold, we will see $BTC recover to the same band now at $36–$37K,” he summarized to Twitter followers on the day.

A further post described BTC as “lagging” behind the S&P but apt to “recover pretty soon” in the event of the former holding monthly support.

Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe was also more optimistic after $30,000 held overnight on BTC/USD.

“A nice move of Bitcoin overnight, as we held the area around $29.7K and continued to run,” he explained.

“Resistance zone now, wouldn’t be longing around here (might even sweep above $31.8K to take the liquidity). Looking at around $30.5K for a potential new long and then targeting $32.8K.”

Fellow trader Pentoshi, nonetheless retained a conservative outlook, forecasting a reversal for the S&P, which could well deflate the latest momentum in crypto markets.

On longer timeframes, the mood was thus subdued in the face of ongoing monetary tightening by central banks and rampant inflation.

For commentator Bob Loukas, the summer looked to be uninspiring for hodlers.

“Probably going to be a boring summer in Crypto. The heavy selling is done, now it’s the doldrums period where only smart money accumulates,” he acknowledged.

“Once all the weak hands have turned over, higher prices will be needed, and the new cycle can begin. Still targeting late in year.”

Analyst on altcoins: “Worse can get much worse” 

Some major altcoins, meanwhile, took the opportunity to capitalize on Bitcoin’s gains.

Related: BTC price snaps its longest losing streak in history — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Among them was Ether (ETH), the largest altcoin by market cap, which saw daily gains in excess of 7% to pass $1,900.

“Good momentum on $ETH here,” Van de Poppe commented in a separate update.

“Approaching [the] first point of resistance, but given the HL and the current recovery on $BTC, I think we’re up for a few weeks of green in which we’ll be looking for tests around $2,300–$2,500 on $ETH too.”

ETH/USD 1-hour candle chart (Binance). Source: TradingView

Elsewhere in the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap, Cardano (ADA) and Solana (SOL) both jumped an excess of 10% on the day. 

Out of the top fifty tokens, only one, Elrond (EGLD), traded in the red.

Loukas, nonetheless, noted that Bitcoin’s market cap was apt to cost altcoins big in the coming months. 

“With BTC maybe 3–6 months from $USD bear lows, watch out on ALT positions. Worse can get much worse,” part of a tweet warned.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

BTC price snaps its longest losing streak in history — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

The longest weekly losing streak in Bitcoin history is finally broken, but the mood among analysts is anything but unanimously bullish.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week with some fresh hope for hodlers after halting what has been the longest weekly downtrend in its history.

After battling for support throughout the weekend, BTC/USD ultimately found its footing to close out the week at $29,900 — $450 higher than last Sunday.

The bullish momentum did not stop there, with the pair climbing through the night into June 6 to reach multi-day highs.

The price action provides some long-awaited relief to bulls, but Bitcoin is far from out of the woods at the start of what promises to be an interesting trading week.

The culmination will likely be United States inflation data — this, itself, a yardstick for the macroeconomic forces of the world globally. As time goes on, the impact of anti-COVID policies, geopolitical tensions and supply shortages is becoming all the more apparent.

Risk assets remain an unlikely bet for many, as central bank monetary tightening is seen to be apt to pressure stocks and crypto alike going forward.

Bitcoin’s network fundamentals, meanwhile, continue to adapt to the surrounding reality and its impact on network participants.

Cointelegraph takes a look at five factors to bear in mind when charting where BTC price action may be headed in the coming days.

Tenth time’s the charm for BTC weekly

It was a long time coming, but Bitcoin has finally closed out a “green” week on the weekly chart.

BTC/USD had spent a record nine weeks making progressively lower weekly closes — a trend that began in late March and ended up being the longest ever in its history.

On June 5, however, bears had no chance, pushing the pair to $29,900 before the new week began, this still being approximately $450 higher than the previous week’s closing price.

That event sparked several hours of upside, with local highs totaling $31,327 on Bitstamp at the time of writing — Bitcoin’s best performance since June 1.

While some celebrated Bitcoin’s newfound strength, others remained firmly cool on the prospects of a more substantial rally.

Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe eyed the open CME futures gap from the weekend, this providing a lure for a return to $29,000.

“Still expecting this to be happening on Bitcoin,” he told Twitter followers.

“A drop towards the CME Gap at $29K would make a lot of sense before a short reversal towards $31.5K.”

A look at order book data reinforces the friction bulls are likely to face in the event of a continued breakout. At the time of writing, the area around $32,000 had more than $60 million in sell-side liquidity lined up on Binance alone.

BTC/USD order book data chart (Binance). Source: Material Indicators

For Il Capo of Crypto, a Twitter analytics account well known for its sobering takes on upcoming BTC price action, there was likewise little to feel confident about.

Nonetheless, the market was not without its optimism.

“Having a plan is more important than guessing the correct direction,” popular Twitter account IncomeSharks argued.

“I think we drop then go up, so I’ll be longing if this happens. If stocks open up green we could rally and I’ll pivot to alts to ride them up. TP level is at $34,000 for now.”

Countdown to U.S. CPI reado

U.S. inflation is at its highest since the early 1980s, but will it continue?

The market will find out this week as June 10 sees the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May.

One of the benchmarks for gauging how inflation is progressing, CPI prints have traditionally been accompanied by market volatility both within crypto and beyond.

The question for many is how much higher it can go as the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its impact on global trade and supply chains continues to play out.

In the United States, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes are also under scrutiny as a result of prices surging.

The end of the “easy money” era is a difficult one for stocks and correlated crypto assets more generally, and that pain trend is expected not to end any time soon, regardless of inflation performance.

“Liquidity is going out of the market and what that means is it will have an impact on the equity markets,” Charu Chanana, market strategist at Saxo Capital Markets, told Bloomberg.

“We do expect that the drawdown in the equity markets still has some room to go.”

Chanana was speaking as Asian markets rallied in early week’s trading, led by China loosening its latest round of COVID-19 lockdown measures.

The Shanghai Composite Index was up 1.1% at the time of writing, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng traded up more than 1.5%.

Beyond the intraday data, however, the mood when it comes to macro versus crypto is very much one of cold feet.

For trading firm QCP Capital, the latest contraction in U.S. M2 money supply — only its third in around twenty years — is another reason to not take any chances.

“This contraction in M2 has been a result of Fed hikes and forward guidance, which drove a surge in reverse repos (RRP) to all-time record levels. Banks and money market funds withdrew money from the financial system in order to park it with the Fed to take advantage of high overnight interest rates,” it wrote in the latest edition of its Crypto Circular research series.

“This draining of liquidity will only be exacerbated by the upcoming QT balance sheet unwind as well, beginning 1 June. We expect these factors to weigh on crypto prices.”

U.S. inflation data chart. Source: St. Louis Fed

Miner capitulation “very close”

Despite weeks of lower prices endangering their cost basis, Bitcoin miners have so far held off from a significant distribution of coins.

This may soon change, new analysis argues, sparking what has historically accompanied generational BTC price bottoms.

In a tweet on June 6, Charles Edwards, founder of crypto asset manager Capriole, highlighted a classic bottom signal in Bitcoin’s hash ribbons metric.

Hash ribbons measure miner profitability and have been historically accurate in correlating with price phases. Currently, the “capitulation” phase similar to March 2020 is underway, he explained but hodlers should do anything but sell as a result.

“Hash Ribbon miner capitulation is very close. Bitcoin mining profit margins are getting squeezed,” Edwards commented.

“Reminder: this is not a sell signal. The end of a capitulation period has historically set up some of the best long-term buys for Bitcoin.”

Bitcoin hash ribbons chart. Source: Charles Edwards/ Twitter

Previously, Cointelegraph reported on miners’ ongoing challenges, which now include a ban on the practice by the state of New York this month.

Fundamentals echo miner calm

Fluctuations in miner participation will have a palpable effect on Bitcoin’s hash rate and network difficulty.

So far, the hash rate has remained stable above 200 exahashes per second (EH/s), according to estimates, indicating that miners for the most part remain active and have not decreased activity over cost concerns.

Data covering Bitcoin’s network difficulty likewise presents a calm short-term picture.

At its upcoming automated readjustment this week, difficulty will decrease by less than 1%, again reflecting a relative lack of upheaval in the mining sphere.

By contrast, the previous readjustment two weeks ago saw a 4.3% reduction, marking the biggest reversal since July 2021.

Bitcoin hash rate, difficulty estimates chart. Source: BTC.com

Beyond the short term, a sense of optimism prevails among some of Bitcoin’s best-known commentators.

“As we see in the growth of its hash rate, today Bitcoin is roughly 50% cheaper yet 20% stronger than a year ago,” podcast host Robert Breedlove noted in part of a Twitter debate on June 5, arguing that this showed the “mobilization” of entrepreneurs interested in fueling Bitcoin’s growth.

Megawhales show “promising sign”

In terms of putting their money where their mouth is, Bitcoin’s biggest investors could be showing the way this month.

Related: Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, ADA, XLM, XMR, MANA

As noted by sentiment monitoring firm Santiment, entities controlling 1,000 BTC or more now own more of the BTC supply than at any point in the past year.

“The mega whale addresses of Bitcoin, comprised partially of exchange addresses, own their highest supply of $BTC in a year,” Santiment summarized on June 6.

“We often analyze the 100 to 10k $BTC addresses for alpha, but accumulation from this high tier can still be a promising sign.”

Bitcoin megawhale accumulation trends chart. Source: Santiment/ Twitter

Data from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant meanwhile allays fears that users are sending BTC en masse to exchanges for sale. The overall trend in decreasing exchange reserves continues and is at levels last seen in October 2018.

Bitcoin exchange reserves vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: CryptoQuant

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin price needs to close above $29,450 for its first green weekly candle since March

It’s touch-and-go for BTC bulls this Sunday with a 10th red weekly candle still at stake.

Bitcoin (BTC) kept traders guessing into the June 5 weekly close as BTC price action closely mimicked last weekend.

BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

BTC price traders $300 in the green

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD circling its May 30 opening level at the time of writing, just $300 higher than seven days ago.

With hours to go before the weekly candle closed, the pair thus retained the threat of sealing yet another lower low. This would take Bitcoin to a new record in terms of consecutive “red” weeks.

Discussing the potential outcomes, traders had mixed opinions.

“Looks like BTC will likely get a Weekly close above $28.5k, which would imply further ranging PA for the upcoming week,” popular Twitter account Crypto Santa added in comments on the day. 

As Cointelegraph reported, BTC/USD continued to trade in a tight range throughout the week, this in place since the recovery from May’s $23,800 lows.

Crypto Santa noted that United States inflation data was due in the coming days, this taking the form of the consumer price index (CPI) readout for May, which could spark volatility should inflation be shown to be running above already-high expectations.

“The jury is still out in terms of the inflationary trajectory,” Jeffrey Rosenberg, senior portfolio manager for systematic multi-strategy at asset management giant BlackRock, told Bloomberg.

“You can’t really get the Fed out of the business of focusing on the number one priority — of getting inflation down — until you really start to see that definitively show up. Until that happens, it’s going to be a very tough time.”

April’s CPI print came in at 8.3%, compounding inflation already at levels not seen since the early 1980s.

Bitfinex longs raise fear of “liquidation disaster”

While many predicted that Bitcoin would ultimately revisit the May lows, one cohort of traders stayed conspicuously bullish.

Related: Bitcoin long-term hodlers begin ‘distribution’ which preceded BTC price bottoms

On major exchange Bitfinex, long bets on BTC kept climbing over the weekend, reaching new record highs and causing confusion among analysts.

The trend accelerated markedly after the trip to $23,800, leading to concerns that a liquidation event could add to market fragility should BTC/USD reverse downhill.

“This is either gonna result in a fantastic pump … or a liquidation disaster,” part of a reactionary tweet by commentator Kevin Svenson read on June 2.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin long-term hodlers begin ‘distribution’ which preceded BTC price bottoms

The bearish BTC price targets keep mounting amid concerns over “distribution” of coins by long-term holders.

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed wedged in a tight range on June 4 as traders’ demands for a new macro low persisted.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Long-term holders begin ‘distribution’

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD stuck between $29,000 and $30,000 into the weekend.

The pair had managed a revival to near $31,000 the previous day, but the last Wall Street trading session of the week put pay to bulls’ efforts.

As “out-of-hours” markets offered thin volumes but little volatility, eyes were on the potential direction of what would be an inevitable breakout.

“The weekly chart on Bitcoin looks nothing short of horrific and so the trend continuation remains. I do think we consolidate a little longer in this range before dropping eventually,” Crypto Tony announced on the day in part of a series of tweets.

A further post reiterated a target of between $22,000 and $24,000 for Bitcoin once that forecast drop took hold.

“I am looking for another drop down to $24000 – $22000, but of course distribution takes time. So we may be hovering around this support zones before any drops just yet,” it read.

Others planned to make the most of incoming weakness, including popular Twitter account Cryptotoad, which announced a strategy of accumulating at $27,000 and under in what would be a “swing low” for BTC/USD.

As Cointelegraph reported, other sources keenly eyeing lower lows for Bitcoin range from on-chain analysts to well-known pundits such as ex-BitMEX CEO, Arthur Hayes.

Adding fuel to the fire was data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, which signaled that long-term holders were starting to divest themselves of their stash in a classic bear market move.

“Long-term holders capitulation phase has begun,” contributing analyst Edris summarized in one the site’s QuickTake market updates released on June 3.

Commenting on a chart of long-term holders’ Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), Edris drew comparisons to conditions that preceded generational bottoms in Bitcoin’s history. These included the 2014 and 2018 bear markets, as well as the COVID-19 cross-market crash of March 2020.

“Currently, the long-term holders are entering the capitulation phase and are selling at a loss, indicating that the smart money accumulation phase has begun, and the next few months would present a great opportunity for long-term investing in the market,” the post read.

It noted that such a capitulation event “usually marks a multi-year bottom.”

Bitcoin long-term holder SOPR annotated chart (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

Exchanges still see big buys

In a hint that some were already buying the dip, meanwhile, exchange data showed that outflows were beating inflows markedly in recent days.

Related: Over 200K BTC now stored in Bitcoin ETFs and other institutional products

According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, on June 3, netflows from major exchanges totaled -23,286 BTC, the most since May 14.

Bitcoin exchange netflows chart. Source: Glassnode

Discussing long-term holder behavior earlier in the week in the latest edition of its newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” Glassnode lead on-chain analyst Checkmate additionally delineated classes of investor currently least interested in selling.

Specifcally, those who bought near the November 2021 all-time highs “appear to be relatively price insensitive,” he wrote, adding that the investor profile was increasingly composed of such stubborn hodlers.

“Despite continued drawdowns in price, and a major spot liquidation event of 80k+ BTC, they remain unwilling to let their coins go,” he added.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin long-term hodlers begin ‘distribution’ which preceded BTC price bottoms

The bearish BTC price targets keep mounting amid concerns over the “distribution” of coins by long-term holders.

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed wedged in a tight range on June 4 as traders’ demands for a new macro low persisted.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Long-term holders begin ‘distribution’

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD stuck between $29,000 and $30,000 into the weekend.

The pair had managed a revival to near $31,000 the previous day, but the last Wall Street trading session of the week put pay to bulls’ efforts.

As “out-of-hours” markets offered thin volumes but little volatility, eyes were on the potential direction of what would be an inevitable breakout.

“The weekly chart on Bitcoin looks nothing short of horrific and so the trend continuation remains. I do think we consolidate a little longer in this range before dropping eventually,” Crypto Tony announced on the day in part of a series of tweets.

A further post reiterated a target of between $22,000 and $24,000 for Bitcoin once that forecast drop took hold.

“I am looking for another drop down to $24000 – $22000, but of course distribution takes time. So we may be hovering around this support zones before any drops just yet,” it read.

Others planned to make the most of incoming weakness, including popular Twitter account Cryptotoad, which announced a strategy of accumulating at $27,000 and under in what would be a “swing low” for BTC/USD.

As Cointelegraph reported, other sources keenly eyeing lower lows for Bitcoin range from on-chain analysts to well-known pundits such as ex-BitMEX CEO, Arthur Hayes.

Adding fuel to the fire was data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, which signaled that long-term holders were starting to divest themselves of their stash in a classic bear market move.

“Long-term holders capitulation phase has begun,” contributing analyst Edris summarized in one the site’s QuickTake market updates released on June 3.

Commenting on a chart of long-term holders’ Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), Edris drew comparisons to conditions that preceded generational bottoms in Bitcoin’s history. These included the 2014 and 2018 bear markets, as well as the COVID-19 cross-market crash of March 2020.

“Currently, the long-term holders are entering the capitulation phase and are selling at a loss, indicating that the smart money accumulation phase has begun, and the next few months would present a great opportunity for long-term investing in the market,” the post read.

It noted that such a capitulation event “usually marks a multi-year bottom.”

Bitcoin long-term holder SOPR annotated chart (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

Exchanges still see big buys

In a hint that some were already buying the dip, meanwhile, exchange data showed that outflows were beating inflows markedly in recent days.

Related: Over 200K BTC now stored in Bitcoin ETFs and other institutional products

According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, on June 3, netflows from major exchanges totaled -23,286 BTC, the most since May 14.

Bitcoin exchange netflows chart. Source: Glassnode

Discussing long-term holder behavior earlier in the week in the latest edition of its newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” Glassnode lead on-chain analyst Checkmate additionally delineated classes of investor currently least interested in selling.

Specifcally, those who bought near the November 2021 all-time highs “appear to be relatively price insensitive,” he wrote, adding that the investor profile was increasingly composed of such stubborn hodlers.

“Despite continued drawdowns in price, and a major spot liquidation event of 80k+ BTC, they remain unwilling to let their coins go,” he added.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin bounces to $30.7K as analyst presents Stock-to-Flow BTC price model rehash

United States stock markets provide the backdrop for reversal in Bitcoin as $30,000 manages to hold.

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh local highs overnight into June 3 after United States equities cut losses.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Wall Street provides short-term relief

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD gaining steadily to hit $30,670 on Bitstamp before consolidating.

The mood among stocks was more solid during the June 2 session, with the S&P 500 reclaiming the majority of its lost ground over the past month. The Nasdaq Composite Index ended up 2.7%.

Analyzing the crypto market cap compared to the Nasdaq, popular analyst TechDev noted what could be an incoming inflection point.

Fellow trader and analyst Pentoshi, meanwhile, issued a sobering outlook for the S&P 500 on weekly timeframes going forward.

Bitcoin, itself continued to face calls for a retracement, which would eclipse May’s $23,800 lows.

Crypto Tony still targeted between $22,000 and $24,000, demanding a break of a trendline currently near $32,500 to consider long scalping.

“Bitcoin held the $30K level, so long would still be intact from the $29.3K region,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe added on his short-term strategy.

“Now flipping $30.3K would be continuation towards $31.8K possible.”

At the time of writing, BTC/USD lay at around $30,500.

Timmer: Bitcoin supply and demand needs “fresh take”

Zooming out, one on-chain analyst became the latest to take on the increasingly controversial Stock-to-Flow (S2F) BTC price model.

Related: This classic Bitcoin metric is flashing buy for first time since March 2020

Having failed to validate its $100,000 end-of-year prediction in 2021, Stock-to-Flow has become increasingly sidelined as its creator, PlanB, fields criticism.

While acknowledging the model’s potential shortcomings, Jurrien Timmer, head of global macro at on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, revisited it, offering a tweak that he argued would serve to increase its utility.

“It’s time for a fresh take on Bitcoin’s supply/demand dynamics,” a dedicated Twitter thread began.

Timmer proposed taking into account Bitcoin’s supply curve to produce a more conservative trajectory for price growth. The result, he considered, had retroactively already captured BTC price action more accurately than the raw S2F predictions.

“If accurate, It suggests still robust but less pie-in-the-sky upside than before. Maybe even several years of sideways, in line with the halving cycle, and likely continued volatility,” he continued.

PlanB had noted that the May monthly close had been Bitcoin’s lowest since December 2020.

As Cointelegraph reported, the next block subsidy halving event is increasingly figuring as a line in the sand for a return to bullish strength.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin touches $30K as ex-BitMEX CEO hopes $25K marks BTC price ‘local bottom’

Bitcoin bulls are not giving up without a fight in the current range, while data increases the significance of May’s $23,800 floor.

Bitcoin (BTC) recovered to $30,000 prior to the June 2 Wall Street open as feet remained cold across crypto markets.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

“Crucial breaker rejecting” on Bitcoin

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD climbing to local highs of $30,182 on Bitstamp after wicking down to near $29,300 overnight.

Amid testing times for equities, Bitcoin followed in giving up recent gains, with Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe insisting that $29,000 needed to hold to avoid more serious retracement.

“Cascade further south for Bitcoin towards the level that caused the breakout,” he summarized on the day.

“Resistances above us are $30.5K and $31.5K. Let’s see how it goes, has to hold $29.2–$29.3K to avoid any massive breakdowns.”

A subsequent tweet highlighted what Van de Poppe described as an intraday “crucial breaker” level acting as resistance.

Analyzing what led Bitcoin to reverse downward, meanwhile, on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators pointed the finger at large-volume investors engineering volatility.

“Large orders chased price to the top, then switched sides, alongside whales starting to market-sell. Now, some buying by $1M+ on support,” part of an explanatory Twitter post read.

BTC/USD thus remained firmly in a narrow trading range in place since the second week of May.

Positivity creeps in over BTC price floor

Meanwhile, one of the industry’s best-known figures gave cause to consider that much deeper corrections may not be in store for Bitcoin.

Related: Price analysis 6/1: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, AVAX, SHIB

In his latest blog post released on June 2, Arthur Hayes, former CEO of derivatives giant BitMEX, argued that last month’s bottom could well have been the bottom that everyone was looking for.

He flagged data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, which presented BTC/USD drawdowns from all-time highs over the years.

Looking back at past halving cycles, there should be strong support at around $25,000, given that $69,000 marked the latest all-time high.

“Don’t take these levels as an exact science. There could be an exchange that traded at a higher or lower intraday level than what’s observed on glassnode,” Hayes reasoned.

“The point is to be generally correct, and with a bit of fudging around the edges we can approximate a range that corresponds to what we believe is the local bottom. For Bitcoin, that’s $25,000 to $27,000. For Ether, that’s $1,700 to $1,800.”

BTC/USD drawdown from all-time highs annotated chart. Source: Arthur Hayes/ Entrepreneur’s Handbook

As Cointelegraph reported, however, the same data had been used earlier in the week to deliver a more bearish BTC price target.

Hayes, himself, has said that he would be a “buyer” of Bitcoin at $20,000 and Ether (ETH) at $1,300.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.