BTC price prediction

‘No excuse’ not to long crypto: Arthur Hayes repeats $1M BTC price bet

Bitcoin and altcoins are a sure-fire bet ahead of a “great pivot” by the Fed on interest rates in 2024, Hayes believes.

Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins are a no-brainer bet in the current macro climate, Arthur Hayes says.

In a post on X (Twitter) on Dec. 14, the former CEO of exchange BitMEX said that investors have “no excuse” to short crypto.

Going long crypto is the key to success as markets bet on the United States Federal Reserve lowering interest rates next year, Hayes argues.

Bitcoin ETF will drive 165% BTC price gain in 2024 — Standard Chartered

Bitcoin supply shock tactics give way to ETF hype in Standard Chartered’s new $100,000 BTC price prediction.

Bitcoin (BTC) may hit $100,000 in one year’s time thanks to “earlier than expected” exchange-traded funds (ETF) launching, says Standard Chartered.

In a research note issued on Nov. 28 quoted by sources including Business Insider, the banking giant doubled down on its bullish BTC price targets.

Standard Chartered still expects six-figure BTC price

Bitcoin is in line to trade at six figures by the end of 2024, the latest forecast from Standard Chartered concludes.

Thanks to the United States potentially approving Bitcoin spot price ETFs, BTC/USD has the ability to almost treble from its current $37,700 over the coming 12 months.

“We now expect more price upside to materialize before the halving than we previously did, specifically via the earlier-than-expected introduction of US spot ETFs,” Geoff Kenrick, Standard Chartered’s head of EM FX Research, West and Crypto Research, wrote.

“This suggests a risk that the USD 100,000 level could be reached before end-2024.”

The figure continues the consumer banking giant’s already optimistic vision of how Bitcoin will grow in the coming years.

In July, research eyed the declining availability of the BTC supply as a reason to believe that much higher prices were in store.

Latest Bitcoin price data suggests double top above $200K in 2025

Bitcoin halving cycles still dictate potential BTC price highs and lows, DecenTrader co-founder Filbfilb says, as he doubles down on $180,000 in 2025.

Bitcoin (BTC) is still on track to hit $180,000 in its next halving cycle, a longtime market participant said.

In a new analysis published on March 3, Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader, doubled down on his bullish BTC price outlook for the years ahead.

Filbfilb keeps faith in Bitcoin halving cycles

With BTC/USD approaching $30,000 but traders highly suspicious of the 2023 rally, sky-high BTC price predictions have been poorly received.

Two current $1-million forecasts, from ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood and former Coinbase executive Balaji Srinivasan, respectively, continue to divide opinion in the aftermath of the 2022 crypto winter.

Considering whether either has merit, Filbfilb turned to raw math to determine some likely macro tops and bottoms for Bitcoin after its next block subsidy halving.

Due at the end of March next year, the halving will again cut the block reward paid to miners by 50%. In prior four-year cycles after previous halvings, BTC/USD has displayed patterns of behavior that continue to hold true today.

“When using Days from the Bitcoin Halving (where the inflation rate of new Bitcoins is halves); we can see that Bitcoin peaks around 368–550 days post halving and then bottoms 779–914 days post cycle,” Filbfilb summarized.

Generating a so-called “price curve,” his analysis shows that it may be possible to get a rough idea of where BTC/USD will top and bottom in the coming halving cycles.

“By combining expected halving dates and days to cycle tops and cycle bottoms alongside extrapolated regression of price data, it is possible to use this model in predicting where Bitcoin price may reside at the peak and trough of future cycles,” he continued.

*Bitcoin price curve chart (screenshot). Source: DecenTrader*

BTC price to $200,000 or more?

Thus, in line with 2013, 2017 and 2021, 2025 should see a “double top” setup, in which Bitcoin peaks above $200,000 twice.

The corresponding bear market low a year later centers around $50,000, according to the calculations.

While acknowledging that price volatility and relative blow-off top trajectory will decrease over time, Filbfilb reasons that overall global trends toward digital stores of value will aid Bitcoin bulls.

Nonetheless, for his part, he believes that the next cycle will bring a slightly lower high than the numbers suggest — around $180,000, already in play since February.

“I recently stated $180k is the target next cycle; I will stick to that for now,” he concluded.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

BTC price targets fix on $35K as Bitcoin eyes ‘massive’ liquidity squeeze

Bitcoin will spark “massive” liquidations if it rises to take out ask liquidity around $30,000, the latest BTC price analysis says.

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed on course for its highest weekly close in ten months on April 2 as $28,000 held.

*BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView*

BTC price analyst: “Massive” liquidations due at $30,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD stable over the weekend after closing out March at near $28,500.

A key point of resistance from earlier in its current halving cycle, the current trading zone represents a major hurdle for bulls to overcome. Should they manage it, price targets extend beyond the $30,000 mark.

Not an expert on classical chart patterns but if we can fit the current structure in it, that gives a minimum price target of 35000$ for #Bitcoin

Also a nice confluence of a break above the high at 32,5K where a lot of stops are sitting to create a possible deviation above … pic.twitter.com/xTAz6yVgO7

— JACKIS (@i_am_jackis) March 30, 2023

“Bitcoin has been consolidating below the biggest resistance/support of the last 2+ years,” analyst Matthew Hyland summarized in his latest tweet on BTC.

“A whole new ballgame if BTC breaks it. NASDAQ & S&P went strong into weekly close. Still major pessimism and disbelief while major milestones are close to being made for Stocks/BTC.”

Popular Twitter account Byzantine General predicted that a breakthrough of resistance immediately above the spot price would result in a sea of liquidations, leading to further upward momentum.

“It feels like some bear is very desperately trying to defend the 29k to 30k region,” a tweet stated on the day.

“I think that when this level breaks massive liqs will come in. And it does feel like a matter of ‘when’ not ‘if’ because there’s zero froth in the market, only some spot supply.“

An accompanying chart showed the Binance BTC/USDT order book with bid and ask liquidity concentrations by price level.

*BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Byzantine General/Twitter*

On shorter timeframes, however, traders were content to wait for the weekly close to cement prior gains.

“Ranging this weekend it seems on the corn, and for continuation the bulls want to reclaim the range high at $28,750. Until the we chill,” Crypto Tony tweeted on the day.

*BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Crypto Tony/ Twitter*

Others were more pessimistic, among them trading resource Stockmoney Lizards, which described a correction as “very likely” before BTC/USD hits $30,000.

#Bitcoin

like in February, we now see a bearish divergence. Correction still very likely before we approach 30k. pic.twitter.com/atXM2aiBqa

— Stockmoney Lizards (@StockmoneyL) April 2, 2023

Bitcoin bulls add another 23% in March

Last month nonetheless, managed to crown itself one of Bitcoin’s best March months.

According to data from Coinglass, 23% gains for BTC/USD almost match its 2021 performance, with 2013 remaining its most volatile.

*BTC/USD monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: Coinglass*

Bitcoin’s trajectory mimics both years, seeing at least three months “in the green” before significant consolidation began.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Elon Musk slams ‘heavy-handed’ Fed as ex-BitMEX CEO sees $1M BTC price

Bitcoin-friendly Musk is no fan of the Fed’s inflation policy, he reveals, as Arthur Hayes says U.S. economic decisions are sending BTC price on a path to $1 million.

The United States Federal Reserve has been “too heavy-handed” in taming inflation, said pro-Bitcoin (BTC) Tesla and Twitter CEO Elon Musk.

In a Twitter debate on March 29, Musk directly criticized U.S. macroeconomic policy, including “excess government spending.”

Musk: Fed policy is a “serious issue”

Bitcoin and crypto markets remain extremely sensitive to Fed cues on interest rate policy.

Despite inflation gradually coming down, the Fed has continued to hike rates even as banks feel the pressure and several collapses.

For Musk, this is already a case of going too far — with banking crisis contagion spreading to Europe, the U.S. dollar, he agrees, is quickly losing appeal.

In a response to a thread on dollar supremacy by Genevieve Roch-Decter, CEO of financial insights firm Grit Capital, Musk did not mince his words.

“Serious issue,” he wrote about the greenback potentially losing its status as the world’s reserve currency.

“US policy has been too heavy-handed, making countries want to ditch the dollar.”

His words come as various countries enact a shift away from U.S. dollar trade, these focused on China, which has begun transacting in yuan with foreign partners.

A further tweet from Musk added that the problem was made worse by the Fed, “Combined with excess government spending, which forces other countries to absorb a significant part of our inflation.”

Markets remain split over how the Fed will act in the future. With the next rate hike decision not due for over one month, bets almost equally favor another 25-basis-point hike and a pause, according to data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

*Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group*

Fed fuels hyper-bullish BTC price bets

Some believe that given the severity of the banking crisis, the U.S. will have little choice but to reverse its policy.

Among the most vocal is Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, who earlier this month released a dedicated roadmap covering how he thinks events will unfold.

In one of several recent tweets, Hayes doubled down on the rosy future for Bitcoin as result, giving a price target of $1 million.

Amid regulatory attention for fellow exchange Binance, meanwhile, he described BTC price action in 2023 as a “bull market powered by FUD.”

BTC/USD traded at around $28,300 at the time of writing on March 30, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

*BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView*

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin to $100K next? Analyst eyes ‘textbook perfect’ BTC price move

Bitcoin is in the midst of a “bump & run reversal” which demands serious upside, argues Capriole CEO, Charles Edwards.

Bitcoin (BTC) is setting up a classic trading move, which could see it hit $100,000, one analyst says.

In a tweet on March 14, Charles Edwards, founder and CEO of investment firm Capriole, called BTC price action in 2023 a “bump & run reversal.”

Edwards on BTC price: The “bottom is back”

Having passed $26,000 to hit new nine-month highs this week, BTC/USD is in the midst of a recovery rarely seen before.

Despite cooling under $25,000 at the time of writing, longer timeframes are already getting analysts excited after the brutal 2022 bear market.

For Edwards, Bitcoin in 2023 has been straight out of the market’s textbooks. The largest cryptocurrency is attempting to fulfill a “bump and run reversal pattern,” he believes.

The bottom phase of bump and run is defined by investment resource Wealthy Education as follows:

“The bump-and-run reversal bottom is a bullish reversal pattern that begins with a series of descending peaks. Excessive speculation drives prices down until reaching extreme lows. The price action then reverses direction to the upside and marks the end of the downtrend.“

“Textbook perfect Bitcoin ‘Bump & Run Reversal’ bottom is back and the target is over $100,000.” Edwards summarized.

Accompanying charts described the bump and run phenomenon, showing BTC/USD in the latter stages of its trend break and cementing a key resistance/support flip.

What happens next — the so-called “uphill run” — gives the pair a six-figure target.

*BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Charles Edwards/ Twitter*

Nonetheless, Edwards acknowledged that, like any chart pattern, bump and run might “fail” and should not be used as the basis for a trading or investment strategy.

Key Bitcoin price resistance ahead

For others, sky-high BTC price valuations remain a fantasy.

Directly above the current spot price lies an area of heavy resistance that Bitcoin bulls have failed to overcome so far. Key moving averages (MAs) on weekly timeframes likewise remain unchallenged .

“Best case scenario for BTC is to break the 200 MA on this current move,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital argued about the current interplay between BTC/USD and the 200-week MA.

He showed that previous rejections had delivered double-figure losses.

“Clearly, the 200 MA is weakening as resistance. However, what if the 200 MA rejections are declining by 10% each time?” he continued.

“If BTC fails to break the 200 MA soon, could BTC reject by -12%?”

*BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/ Twitter*

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin eyes 25% of world’s wealth in new $10M BTC price prediction

Bitcoin can see its market cap increase 500 times over, Jesse Myers believes, thanks to its inherent scarcity and other traits.

Bitcoin (BTC) can hit $10 million per coin or more as it eats 25% of the global wealth, new analysis has concluded.

In a blog post released on Feb. 16, fund manager and Bitcoin expert advisor Jesse Myers revealed his own “outrageous” BTC price target.

Myers: “Bitcoin could 500x over the coming decades”

Bitcoin may struggle with “brutal” volatility, but hodlers and critics alike should be in no doubt about its long-term price trajectory, Myers said.

Analyzing Bitcoin’s value proposition, he argues that Bitcoin’s ability to appreciate over time means that it is all but destined to suck in value from other asset classes.

Among other reasons, this is because an asset with such appreciation characteristics and increasing scarcity allows it to fulfill the role of “digital gold.”

“Bitcoin has an unthinkable property: it gets more valuable over time. Gold is good at storing purchasing power, but Bitcoin grows purchasing power,” the blog post reads.

“Value stored in Bitcoin becomes worth more over time because of Bitcoin’s design of increasing scarcity — you just have to outlast the (admittedly brutal) volatility along the way.”

Such an idea is not new — it forms the core thesis of many popular takes on Bitcoin, among them Saifedean Ammous’ seminal book, The Bitcoin Standard.

Getting down to the numbers, meanwhile, Myers calculated the global allocation into BTC as 0.05% of available wealth as of 2023 — $400 billion.

“That’s 1/2000th of global asset value,” the post continues.

“With that in mind, we have to ask ourselves an important question: when Bitcoin’s mechanics continue to play out (causing it to continue appreciating reliably in value every 4 years), will more than 0.05% of the world’s capital eventually realize it wants to be in an asset like that? I think the only logical conclusion is ‘yes.’”

That realization, Myers forecasts, means that $10 million per Bitcoin should be a “conservative estimate.”

“Overall, my personal assessment of where the ceiling is for Bitcoin is simple… it’s very high. Almost to the point that I’m embarrassed to show my analysis,” he concludes.

“My conservative estimates suggest an outrageous full potential for Bitcoin’s price: $10m/Bitcoin, in today’s dollars. To put this another way, I believe Bitcoin’s full potential is to eat ~25% of the world’s value… while today it constitutes just 0.05%. That’s absurd. That means that I believe Bitcoin could 500x over the coming decades, in real (inflation-adjusted) terms.”

*Macro asset comparison graphic (screenshot). Source: Jesse Myers/Substack*

ARK Bitcoin “bear case” now $258,000 by 2030

“Absurd” or not, Myers is far from alone in eyeing sky-high Bitcoin price valuations coming true in the coming decades.

Some are even calling for the $1-million mark to hit before the end of this one — ARK Invest, for example, continued to stick by that very prediction throughout the 2022 bear market declines.

In its “Big Ideas 2023” outlook released at the end of January, the investment giant described long-term opportunity as “strengthening.”

The firm’s “bear case” for 2030, it revealed, still puts BTC/USD at $258,000 by the end of the decade.

*Bitcoin growth forecast data (screenshot). Source: ARK Invest*

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

BTC price metric that cued biggest Bitcoin bull runs breaks out at $23K

Bitcoin’s January performance has sparked an event that has preceded the start of every macro bull market, data reveals.

A little-known Bitcoin (BTC) price metric has just given a new bull run signal — and it has never been wrong.

As noted on Feb. 8 by Caleb Franzen, senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics, the Williams %R oscillator has left its bottom zone for the first time since May 2022.

Analyst: Oscillator crossover is a “great sign”

Bitcoin gaining 40% in January and continuing to hold higher levels has produced breakout signals across various on-chain indicators.

Some analysts are cautious, opting to wait and see if the improved conditions last, but for Franzen, the data coming from the Williams %R oscillator is of particular interest.

Williams %R is a momentum oscillator that measures how near BTC/USD is to its recent highs or lows. Momentum oscillators are utilized to measure the strength of a price trend, and Bitcoin’s January performance has made it a prime test case.

“Bitcoin’s 12-month Williams%R oscillator left the ‘oversold’ threshold as of January’s monthly close!” Franzen wrote in part of a dedicated Twitter thread.

“Historically, leaving the lower-bound has signaled two things: 1. The cycle lows are in. 2. The bear market is over.”

He added that the phenomenon was a “great sign” while acknowledging that a bull run was not guaranteed.

An accompanying chart nonetheless showed the tight relationship between such Williams %R threshold crosses and subsequent long-term BTC price behavior.

The last, for example, came in April 2019, with BTC/USD then beginning its journey out of its bear market lows to ultimately hit all-time highs in November 2021.

A “caveat,” meanwhile, comes in the form of varying timeframes for Williams %R. Franzen noted that only the 12-month iteration of the metric had flipped bullish, with the 18-month version remaining “oversold.”

“If/when this crosses > oversold, it will add to the bull case,” he added.

*BTC/USD with Williams %R oscillator annotated chart. Source: Caleb Franzen/Twitter*

Signs of Bitcoin rebirth come thick and fast

Franzen is far from alone in keeping the faith when it comes to current BTC price action.

Over the weekend, popular trader Credible Crypto described the status quo as “identical” to Bitcoin’s late-2020 breakout that saw it cross its prior all-time high from 2017.

Encouraging signs have also come from macroeconomic sources, notably the United States Federal Reserve, as well as internal phenomena such as the long-awaited “golden cross” event on the daily chart.

January, meanwhile, saw a renewed influx of institutional cash into Bitcoin, which took the majority of resources as investors shied away from many altcoin products. Weekly inflows for the last week of the month were the highest in seven months.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

BTC price metric which cued biggest Bitcoin bull runs brakes out at $23K

Bitcoin’s January performance has sparked an event which preceded the start of every macro bull market, data reveals.

A little-known Bitcoin (BTC) price metric has just given a new bull run signal — and it has never been wrong.

As noted on Feb. 8 by Caleb Franzen, senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics, the Williams %R oscillator has left its bottom zone for the first time since May 2022.

Analyst: Oscillator crossover is “great sign”

Bitcoin gaining 40% in January and continuing to hold higher levels has produced breakout signals across various on-chain indicators.

Some analysts are cautious, opting to wait and see if the improved conditions last, but for Franzen, the data coming from the Williams %R oscillator is of particular interest.

“Bitcoin’s 12-month Williams%R oscillator left the ‘oversold’ threshold as of January’s monthly close!” Franzen wrote in part of a dedicated Twitter thread.

“Historically, leaving the lower-bound has signaled two things: 1. The cycle lows are in. 2. The bear market is over.”

He added that the phenomenon was a “great sign” while acknowledging that a bull run was not guaranteed.

An accompanying chart nonetheless showed the tight relationship between such Williams %R threshold crosses and subsequent long-term BTC price behavior.

The last, for example, came in April 2019, with BTC/USD then beginning its journey out of its bear market lows to ultimately hit all-time highs in November 2021.

“If/when this crosses > oversold, it will add to the bull case,” he added.

Signs of Bitcoin rebirth come thick and fast

Franzen is far from alone in keeping the faith when it comes to current BTC price action.

At the weekend, popular trader Credible Crypto described the status quo as “identical” to Bitcoin’s late-2020 breakout that saw it cross its prior all-time high from 2017.

January meanwhile saw a renewed influx of institutional cash into Bitcoin, which took the majority of resources as investors shied away from many altcoin products. Weekly inflows for the last week of the month were the highest in seven months.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin will hit $200K before $70K ‘bear market’ next cycle — Forecast

Stochastic patterns leave the door open for 189% BTC price gains versus the current Bitcoin all-time high, according to one analyst.

Bitcoin (BTC) has “well-formed” evidence, which suggests that its next all-time high will top out at $200,000, one analyst says.

In a tweet on Jan. 27, popular Twitter commentator Trader Tardigrade, also known as Alan, also revealed $70,000 as the next potential bear market bottom.

Stochastic indicator offers Bitcoin bulls historical firepower

For many, BTC price action is still bound by Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycles. The resulting price pattern offers one “all time high year” in every four, with 2025 next in line.

Bitcoin’s block subsidy halving will occur a year prior, and from then on, Alan argues, the path will be open to a giant $200,000.

That price tag came about from an analysis of Bitcoin’s stochastic oscillator, which syncs with cycle highs and lows in BTC/USD. Currently, the indicator is printing its latest trough, and if history is a guide, price behavior will do likewise.

The stochastic oscillator is a volatility tool, which compares closing prices to historical averages.

“Bitcoin well-formed structure with stochastic behavior indicates that the next ATH will be at 200K and next floor will be at 70K,” Alan summarized alongside an illustrative chart.

*BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Trader Tardigrade/Twitter*

Responses to the post revealed a familiar divergence in opinions when it comes to Bitcoin’s future potential in U.S. dollar terms.

Nonetheless, $200,000 may seem modest for some long-time market participants, that level being a mere 189% higher than the existing all-time high from November 2021.

Consensus believes that the scope of BTC investment returns will diminish in percentage terms over time, with long-term volatility cooling each cycle.

PlanB eyes $32,000 BTC price next

Equally optimistic in the current environment, meanwhile, is PlanB, the analyst responsible for the controversial Stock-to-Flow family of BTC price models.

Bitcoin’s behavior in January has been a decisive turning point, he believes, pointing to various on-chain metrics as proof of the recovery.

Among the latest is realized return, which tracks aggregate profitability of spent coins.

“Realized return just popped positive! Sellers are now taking profit (green) instead of cutting losses (blue) .. big difference,” PlanB commented on a chart.

PlanB added this week that Bitcoin’s next short-term target should be $32,000, also based on realized price data.

*Bitcoin realized return chart. Source: PlanB/Twitter*

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.